Mini 1758: Game Over

[tictac]

VOTE: No Lynch

[Lokiben]

Sorry, Zulfy. I guess I got overconfident again.

I guess this means that:

A) The role list at this point is slightly more nuanced than we expected it to be. Since none of you claim a PR, and it's not me, I guess it'd be something on the scum's end.
B) The mafia didn't kill because...?

Whatever it was, we have the extra talk time, which is nice. Not going to hammer the NL.

From scum to town:

tictac: My biggest case against tictac is about his spat with ckd yesterday, but it has been talked to death so I'll leave it alone for now. Aside from that, something that caught my gut's attention, although it could be confirmation bias, is that while continuously hounding for a Zulfy lynch, he managed to construct a completely separate push on pisskop, as if he knew in advance it'd be necessary once the game didn't end with Zulfy's flip. I know that this sounds hypocritical coming from me, but ehh I can vouch for the authenticity of my indecisiveness. Finally, there's the fact that he showed very little enthusiasm relative to apf when the ckd wagon started, which really did emphasize his incredibly quick shift in opinion on ckd.

pisskop: I'm glad he's calmed down since his entrance and has been productive. I'm not sure if my 1598 had a role to play in the transition, and if it did, I'm not sure if it was in response to the scumread or general gripes, so I'm not sure how indicative I want to interpret it is. It could all be WIFOM, but his approach to the ckd wagon struck me as the opposite of how I would expect scum to go around dealing with a wagon a buddy: He made his reservations apparent, knowing full well the attention it'd bring to him once his buddy flipped. UTL's prior lurking does count against him some, though. He's my second pick, but there's a fair amount of disparity between him and tictac.

a plain farmer:The ckd wagon was all his doing, and I commend him for that. Not much about him honestly stood out much to me before then. It's a shame he's scumreading me. I'm honestly a little indignant that he's scumreading me for 333, though, because I was frustrated to begin with, and still am despite Elyse's flip, that the post wasn't taken seriously, and now he's suggesting that I should be to blame. All I can say in my defense is that I was definitely not expecting Elyse to be someone who definitely wasn't going to be lynched.

[a plain farmer]

OK, so what's the plan? Pk and tictac, were you guys holding back anything for the purpose of CCing? I'm a VT btw, in case that isn't blatantly obvious.

[tictac]

OK, so what's the plan?

Also blatantly obvious.
We NL for the chance that scum hits a VT, cause 2 conftown at 3p LYLO is an instant win.
Get on board.

[Lokiben]

I'm lost.

[pisskop]

Can we not go into any weird discussion today? Since nobody has laid claim to anything

(ﾉ ◕Д◕)ﾉ*:･ﾟ✧

magic

✧:･ﾟ*

we know scum is a pansy and is hoping to gain some advantage from today. and since all we are going to do is talk and Im sure they knew that they want some wifom

[tictac]

Can we not go into any weird discussion today?

Seconded.

Everybody, vote for No Lynch.

[a plain farmer]

VOTE: No Lynch

[Lokiben]

VOTE: No lynch

[Lokiben]

I'm lost.

[Performer]

VOTE COUNT 6.01

No Lynch (3): tictac, a plain farmer, Lokiben

No vote (1): pisskop

With 4 players alive, it takes 3/4 votes to lynch.

For deadlines & notes, please refer to this post – post 3 !

[Performer]

VOTE COUNT 7.00

No vote: tictac, a plain farmer, Lokiben

With 3 players alive, it takes 2/3 votes to lynch.

For deadlines & notes, please refer to this post – post 3 !

-----
Things were looking fantastic for pisskop. He was engaged, had a stable career, and had a passion for his hobby. His student loans were on the verge of being paid off and his new car loan, well – it was in process of being paid off, but hey, things could be worse.

On one night, he woke up alone in his apartment, drenched in sweat. It was a nightmare, one that he’s been having for several weeks now, ever since the town murders began. He proceeded to the kitchen for a cool glass of water to ease his constantly-running mind.

He moved on to his workspace, where he had postings of possible connections between suspects. “ika, acryon, SirCakez, Zulfy, the 3 lights of the town. Come on, pisskop,” he muttered to himself. “Think!”
It was stuffy in the apartment for some reason, so he opened the window curtains in order to let in a bit of outside air.

Across from the apartment, unbeknownst to anyone, was a dark figure with a sniper rifle. He noticed the opportunity and didn’t let it slide.

This was pisskop’s last night alive.

pisskop…

Spoiler:

was a Vanilla Townie

[a plain farmer]

Alright, what do you guys think the most probable reason is for why there wasn't a kill the night before last?

[tictac]

Well, yesterday I was sure pisskop had to be a doc(I'm a VT, both of ya said you didn't cause the no-kill and a BP would have claimed)
I figure pisskop thought the same about me, and that is why he didn't want to discuss things too much.
(from my perspective Loki looked like a conf-scum, and I couldn't speak about it. I wouldn't have that info if I was a doc who protected farmer, so it would have VT-outed me)

Looks like it has to be a no-kill by scum.
Loki was scumreading me hard at the end of day 5. All scum!farmer had to do was kill pisskop, and he would have very likely won.
By same token scum!loki could have killed farmer and either me or pisskop would have very likely voted for the other.

So, no it doesn't make sense at all.
That said out of you two farmer is the one I'd more expect sensible play from, so I currently think it implicates Loki.

[Lokiben]

I'm not sure why you think it qualifies as insensible if here we are, objectively just as we would be if there had been a kill that night. I think pisskop was right when he said there was WIFOM to it, so I think that means it shouldn't be analyzed.

And why would pisskop have voted you, tictac? I would have been his pick, he said.

P-edit: If the mafia have an odd-night goon or something, does that qualify as simple?

[Lokiben]

Well, yesterday I was sure pisskop had to be a doc(I'm a VT, both of ya said you didn't cause the no-kill and a BP would have claimed)
I figure pisskop thought the same about me, and that is why he didn't want to discuss things too much.
(from my perspective Loki looked like a conf-scum, and I couldn't speak about it. I wouldn't have that info if I was a doc who protected farmer, so it would have VT-outed me)

Looks like it has to be a no-kill by scum.
Loki was scumreading me hard at the end of day 5. All scum!farmer had to do was kill pisskop, and he would have very likely won.
By same token scum!loki could have killed farmer and either me or pisskop would have very likely voted for the other.

So, no it doesn't make sense at all.
That said out of you two farmer is the one I'd more expect sensible play from, so I currently think it implicates Loki.

tictac, if you could put the kill out of mind, who would be your top scumread? I find it oddly convenient (or decidedly inconvenient, really) that your entire analysis is based upon the kill.

[a plain farmer]

Thanks for your answers. Here's where I am: I think I'll be voting Loki today.

Whichever of you is scum, you did a damn good job. I went over each of your ISOs and interactions, and whenever I'd be just at the tipping point to be convinced one of you were scum, I'd see something that looked like it was coming from a town perspective and it would put me back in the middle.

The tiebreaker here is that Elyse, RC, pisskop, SirCakez, and Zulfy were reading Loki as scummier than tictac prior to their respective exits from the game (although Zulfy did waffle a bit towards tictac). I'm not sure I can ignore my own gut read from a few days prior

and

go against the general will of the departed townies.

So I'm not really interested in debating this. I wont vote in this post just in case there is some incredible thing I haven't caught, but I do expect to vote Loki in my next post.

[tictac]

I'm not sure why you think it qualifies as insensible if here we are, objectively just as we would be if there had been a kill that night. I think pisskop was right when he said there was WIFOM to it, so I think that means it shouldn't be analyzed.

What kind of WIFOM do you see in it?

And why would pisskop have voted you, tictac? I would have been his pick, he said.

Huh. I think ye'r right. He said you were his backup choice and spoke of binary choice between us. I read that as him scumreading me more, but I think his primary was farmer in 1667.
Why are you arguing in favour of scum!Loki thou?

P-edit: If the mafia have an odd-night goon or something, does that qualify as simple?

No. I don't think that would qualify as normal even.

tictac, if you could put the kill out of mind, who would be your top scumread? I find it oddly convenient (or decidedly inconvenient, really) that your entire analysis is based upon the kill.

Farmer asked about the no-kill, and those were my thoughts. It's not intended to be a complete analysis.
If I exclude that I would still be scumreading you.from 1630. (Getting on board CKD only when it was clear he was going to get lynched, and preparing to lynch me in the same post. It sounds like you were trying to do damage-control.I think a townie would have been more focused on the matter at hand.)
Also,yer voting history:

Spoiler: votes

(10)(

Cakez

)(

Lokiben

)
(56)(

CKD

)(

Lokiben

)
(124)(---)(Lokiben)
(298)(

Elyse

)(

Lokiben

)
DAY END:1
DAY END:2
(1065)(

Elyse

)(

Lokiben

)
(1087)(---)(Lokiben)
(1099)(

Zulfy

)(

Lokiben

)
(1199)(---)(Lokiben)
DAY END:3
(1247)(

Zulfy

)(

Lokiben

)
(1630)(

CKD

)(farmer,

Rando

,

Lokiben

)
DAY END:4
(1643)(

Zulfy

)(

Lokiben

)
DAY END:5

The CKD vote was the first time ya voted with anyone at all, which tells me that yer motivation for that was different. I still need to doublecheck that, cause I remember getting a different result before(you agreeing with me on zulf)

That said, I haven't decided on a vote yet. I wanna do wagon analysis and take a closer look at farmers CKD push, it's gonna take a while.

[Lokiben]

Thanks for your answers. Here's where I am: I think I'll be voting Loki today.

Whichever of you is scum, you did a damn good job. I went over each of your ISOs and interactions, and whenever I'd be just at the tipping point to be convinced one of you were scum, I'd see something that looked like it was coming from a town perspective and it would put me back in the middle.

The tiebreaker here is that Elyse, RC, pisskop, SirCakez, and Zulfy were reading Loki as scummier than tictac prior to their respective exits from the game (although Zulfy did waffle a bit towards tictac). I'm not sure I can ignore my own gut read from a few days prior

and

go against the general will of the departed townies.

So I'm not really interested in debating this. I wont vote in this post just in case there is some incredible thing I haven't caught, but I do expect to vote Loki in my next post.

Elyse's scumread on me was based upon a misunderstanding related to my inquiry about the number of masons. Cakez and pisskop emphasized that tictac was only a hair above me. RC scumread tictac since Day 1, tried to lynch him, and never took it back. And Zulfy actually trusted tictac the least when he was lynched, if you reread his final posts.

And you left out acryon and SRMP, both of whom strongly scumread tictac by the time of their departure.

I'm not sure why you think it qualifies as insensible if here we are, objectively just as we would be if there had been a kill that night. I think pisskop was right when he said there was WIFOM to it, so I think that means it shouldn't be analyzed.

What kind of WIFOM do you see in it?

I mean, here you are, poking at it already. I think you reached a little when you decided that the skipped kill implicated me, because as I said, the scum gained nothing objectively from that move, so their angle could only have been to use the lack of kill to draw attention to someone.

And why would pisskop have voted you, tictac? I would have been his pick, he said.

Huh. I think ye'r right. He said you were his backup choice and spoke of binary choice between us. I read that as him scumreading me more, but I think his primary was farmer in 1667.
Why are you arguing in favour of scum!Loki thou?

The point I'm trying to make is that your reasoning for pisskop's death doesn't hold. And it's still 100% wine anyway.

P-edit: If the mafia have an odd-night goon or something, does that qualify as simple?

No. I don't think that would qualify as normal even.

I checked the wiki; it's normal.

tictac, if you could put the kill out of mind, who would be your top scumread? I find it oddly convenient (or decidedly inconvenient, really) that your entire analysis is based upon the kill.

Farmer asked about the no-kill, and those were my thoughts. It's not intended to be a complete analysis.
If I exclude that I would still be scumreading you.from 1630. (Getting on board CKD only when it was clear he was going to get lynched, and preparing to lynch me in the same post. It sounds like you were trying to do damage-control.I think a townie would have been more focused on the matter at hand.)
Also,yer voting history:

Spoiler: votes

(10)(

Cakez

)(

Lokiben

)
(56)(

CKD

)(

Lokiben

)
(124)(---)(Lokiben)
(298)(

Elyse

)(

Lokiben

)
DAY END:1
DAY END:2
(1065)(

Elyse

)(

Lokiben

)
(1087)(---)(Lokiben)
(1099)(

Zulfy

)(

Lokiben

)
(1199)(---)(Lokiben)
DAY END:3
(1247)(

Zulfy

)(

Lokiben

)
(1630)(

CKD

)(farmer,

Rando

,

Lokiben

)
DAY END:4
(1643)(

Zulfy

)(

Lokiben

)
DAY END:5

The CKD vote was the first time ya voted with anyone at all, which tells me that yer motivation for that was different. I still need to doublecheck that, cause I remember getting a different result before(you agreeing with me on zulf)

That said, I haven't decided on a vote yet. I wanna do wagon analysis and take a closer look at farmers CKD push, it's gonna take a while.

Also, at the time of 1630, tictac, it was not at all clear that ckd was going to be lynched. The votes were tied, and it was looking like apf was going to be lynched to me. As for my vote history, ckd was the first lynch that I was actually online to vote on. What matter at hand are you referring to?

[Lokiben]

I'm going to go ahead and compile all my everything on tictac for you, apf.

[a plain farmer]

Don't bother. I've trawled through this game myself 4 times over the last couple days. I've second-guessed myself too much already to the point where further analysis can't do any good anymore. Anything coming from either of your mouths at this point will just be too much WIFOM.

VOTE: Lokiben

[Lokiben]

I guess we've lost already. I can't vote for tictac because he's obviously not going to vote for himself, so I guess my hail mary is

VOTE: a plain farmer

[tictac]

no hammer.

[a plain farmer]

*hugs tictac*

Alright, need I say anything in my defense?

[tictac]

I'll get to it. I still have a lot of reading to do and it's 1 am.