Micro 639: Noughts and Crosses Blitz [Game Over]

[Wingback]

So from my understanding of things, if we lynch dunn today then tomorrow we will lynch lane by strategy, and if we lynch luna then we lynch wing tomorrow by strategy? If this is the case, that is a harsh choice to make because I have a town read on both of them, but am perfectly happy with a luna or dunn lynch, but preferably a dunn lynch.

Can you go over all your reads and why you have them?

[Javajoe24]

Umlaut - I find the fact that he was voting ATM/Wing solely based on distance from him, and to increase his chance of survival, then a few posts later says that I am scummy for playing a "survivalistic" vote on Dunn. Not really any other thoughts on him other than he started tunneling on me for reasons I don't quite understand.

AlpacaAlpaca - Seems to be active lurking as people have said, but the fact that he just got prodded seems to indicate maybe he is just having some RL issues? I have a town read on him for his post 154 (cant remember how to make that a link). To me it seems like he is trying to warn us that we need to focus on who we lynch and not get too caught up in the tic tac toe strategies, which to me sounds like it would come from a townie.

Dunn - I really dislike how adamant he is/was about lynching the IC today. I feel in my gut that this strategy comes from a scum mindset. He claimed in post 115 that he is only willing to vote for luna, wing, or Mcmenn. This is a completely survivalistic point of view. This entire time that pressure has been placed on him, he has been in a completely survivalist mentality. Town would not care as much as dunn to die. This is why he is my top scum pick.

GuiltyLion - Got a town read almost immediately here for being one of the first to fight against lynching the IC. Genuinely seems to be posting and thinking from a town perspective. Definite town read.

Lane - Lane started out advocating for an IC kill, but slowly came around to a corner kill strategy. While this could still be scum being flip floppy, I really don't feel like this is the case. More of a Gut town read on lane really.

Luna - Luna sheeped lane on her vote for dunn, without making any arguements herself against him. Her post about thinking she shouldn't have signed up for the game because she isn't putting in enough time or effort, despite having the 2nd highest amount of posts pings me.

Wingback - Along with Lane and Guilty, Wing seems to be one of the main contributors to furthering the strategy, and his strategies seem to be very pro town. I know amount of effort put in is NAI, but for me it seems to be more helpful to the town than anything. One of my top 3 townreads.

So you all know, I made this list after re reading everyone's ISO. I do not just hold all of that information in my brain, lol. I got a little lazy towards the end explaining why cause I am getting tired, but to recap, here is my readlist:

{Mcmenno} Town
{Guilty, Wingback, Lane} Town-Lean
{Alpaca} Null
{Luna} Scum-Lean
{Dunn, Umlaut} Scum

[Luna Fox]

We are running out of time, if by the time im done playing AoW we arent moving forward on either dunn on me i'll self vote to facilitate things, considering regardless of the path you guys want me dead anyway.

[Wingback]

@Luna, while you're here, can you post your actual reads on the game so far? It would help if I can get a more solid read on you and that's been hard given that most of the discussion was based on Tic Tac Toe.

[Luna Fox]

Sure:

Confirmed Town:

McMenno

Strong Town:

GuiltyLion
lane0168

Towny:

Wingback

Leftovers:

Ümläüt
Dunnstral
Javajoe24
AlpacaAlpaca

[Wingback]

Some explanations to go with those reads would be great as well.

[Luna Fox]

Well i thought i've already explained them ._.
Guilty and lane because I liked their strategy discussion to win the game, i think that was pretty town of them.
You because your posts feel town.

[Wingback]

Do you have any thoughts on the people in your leftovers pile?

[GuiltyLion]

It feels like everyone in this game has very similar reads, I don't know what to make of it

[Wingback]

Yeah, I thought so too. Normally I wouldn't worry because even if I'm scumreading the better scum players, there's generally enough time to re-evaluate. But this game has short deadlines and some forced lynches which makes me worry. Many people are also focused on the Tic Tac Toe aspect and not scumhunting enough. I just want to get as much information out there as possible so that whoever is in LYLO can hunt for associatives well.

[Wingback]

It's almost funny how in the activity overview, the top four posters are the four corners. Besides you, the edges seem to have coasted somewhat knowing they won't be lynched today.

[Luna Fox]

Well we need to get a lynch going, and since you guys want to lynch me at some point down the line might as well do it now.
VOTE: Luna Fox

[McMenno]

that is true I suppose @ wingback I have currently

town
wingback
lane
guiltylion

null
luna fox
umlaut

scum
javajoe
alpaca
dunnstral

[lane0168]

I've got a harder scum read on alpaca than Java. I almost think if we lynched Dunn then alpaca we'd win. Dunn is way too survivalist. If Dunn doesn't happen though I think I can trust wing and guilty to play the lynches right

[lane0168]

Well we need to get a lynch going, and since you guys want to lynch me at some point down the line might as well do it now.
VOTE: Luna Fox

You just brought Dunn from l-2 and you l-3 to Dunn l-3 and you l-2, to get a lynch going? Alright, I don't understand it but ok. Guess it works for me.

VOTE: luna

L-1

[lane0168]

If they kill me, lynch Dunn. Ill hold all my other what if's for tomorrow

[lane0168]

I don't like luna lynch first though. Leaves alpaca alive for too long who's just been coasting. Do not like one bit

[Ümläüt]

Working on a readlist, no one quickhammer plz

[GuiltyLion]

Well we need to get a lynch going, and since you guys want to lynch me at some point down the line might as well do it now.
VOTE: Luna Fox

So you have Dunn in your leftovers pile but you'd rather lynch yourself than him??

intent to hammer

I'll wait for Umlaut. Unfortunately this means Alpaca survives a long time, which may be why LF is doing this

[lane0168]

Well we need to get a lynch going, and since you guys want to lynch me at some point down the line might as well do it now.
VOTE: Luna Fox

So you have Dunn in your leftovers pile but you'd rather lynch yourself than him??

intent to hammer

I'll wait for Umlaut. Unfortunately this means Alpaca survives a long time, which may be why LF is doing this

Good point. We lynch Dunn, they both die.

[lane0168]

I'm not saying switch to Dunn there. I'm just saying that could be what she's trying to avoid

[Javajoe24]

Wait, why would Luna switch to herself when it doesn't progress the lynch count? Doesn't make sense to me...

[Ümläüt]

Hey, sorry for semi-lurking through the weekend.

Reads at the moment

TOWN

Wingback
lane0168
GuiltyLion
Luna Fox
Dunnstral
AlpacaAlpaca
Javajoe24

SCUM

My scumreads are pretty weak in this game actually, which I'm not too worried about since several people have suggested that this is more about choosing the final four than it is about nailing the exact scumteam.

Wingback

has done the most work of anyone in pushing the game forward, both analyzing the setup in a useful way and encouraging people to form reads while giving them a framework to do so. Very comfortable with this as my top townread.

lane0168

is a close second for pretty much the same reasons only less so. I never thought lynching the center was a good idea but I can see it as an honest mistake since it does seem like a seductive choice.

GuiltyLion

I've agreed with on pretty much everything he's said this game, so that's good. The fact that he was pushing the corner strategy at a point where several people were pushing the center strategy, when he could have just aimed at a McMenno quicklynch, makes him townier as well. I'm a little more paranoid of this read because I suspect he's someone who's just really good at townposting as either alignment, but I don't actually have the meta evidence to support this.

Luna Fox

was actually below Dunnstral until just a bit ago. She said early on that she's going to focus on Mafia over TTT, but hasn't actually done a lot in terms of Mafia either. What's moved her up are two things: her high post count, and that she's self-voted and I just can't think of a good reason for scum to do that instead of arguing for Dunnstral and then Alpaca, especially with Alpaca catching a lot of heat right now and her already having said she's not townreading Dunn.

Dunnstral

was an early townread of mine for the early TTT contributions, but looking back on them they actually aren't so great and led toward a center preference (as opposed to starting with a center preference and then changing to a corner preference like Lane). Actually reading his ISO there's... less than I thought, and also this doesn't seem like the D1 play I've seen from Dunn in other games. (Though I don't have any scum meta for Dunn so I can't say what this actually means.)

AlpacaAlpaca

hasn't really done enough to support a strong read. I'm not especially interested in having him around for lylo but I can't actually scumread him except for lack of a townread.

Javajoe24

sat on the fence in the center-corner wars, inexplicably unvoted because "RVS is over," pushed a policy lynch on replacement-bait, gave intent to hammer Dunn way too early even for blitz, and has been too defensive (see 142 where wants to make sure no one thinks he ever preferred center to corner at any point now that the town has decided on corner).

-----

Posting this to get it out the door, working on another post about which block I actually want around for final 4.

[AlpacaAlpaca]

Not sure I want Umlaut and Javajoe at the end. I suspected bussing when Umlaut pushed on Javajoe so early in the game. In this setup bussing isn't a bad idea given the lynch setups are mostly determined in advance so in scenarios where scum die, it's best if their partner comes out looking good by having accused them.

I guess I can sort of see this, but think about the end game here: with Umlaut advocating a Luna Fox lynch followed by a java lynch, Lane is forced to be NK'd, followed by obligatory Dunnstral lynch, followed by scum forced to kill Umlaut. If he's scum committing to a bus on a partner starting with a vote on Luna Fox, it comes out as an auto-loss for him in the end.

Can you explain your scumread on Alapaca?

Alpaca is active lurking. He hasn't once offered a legitimate effort to sort people, instead what he has posted has been RVS joking and then small questions/comments on theory. He also called McMenno town in his 154 in a way that pings me as fake:

I am pretty sure Luna and Wing are town so are guilty and mcmenno
@Dunn - Are you still for lynching mcmenno?

the way this is written it feels like he's just naming names and threw on McMenno afterwards because the slot is confirmed town. Like, am I on the same tier of towniness to Alpaca as the IC, why am I separated from Luna/Wing? I can't figure out exactly how to put it into words, but it doesn't look like something town would write.

Luna and Wingback are my strongest town reads and Guilty and Mcmenno are tier 2 town reads. Your read on me is pretty evident you haven't played with me before because joke reads is something I do whenever I can. I will take notice that adding the joke at the end makes the joke seem like more of a bad addon.

@Wing - I didn't list Lane as a townread because at the time I didn't like how he went from the middle to not the middle as his preferred first lynch because he seems to be going with the flow too well, I said lets lynch middle and than he was vehemently wanting to lynch the middle than other people started saying corners were best and he switches and there was really no middle ground like I thought there would be however after all of his recent game solving I do town read him.

Going back to Wings tables I would go option 4 on Luna or option 1 on Dunnstral because both have 3 townreads of mine and Umlaut and I am town leaning him more than the others left

Also we still have 10 hours left Luna doesn't need to selfvote if the majority want Dunn we can still go down that path unless a lot of people scumread Luna than I suppose that way is fine too

[Wingback]

As I said before, I forgot to add something to the table (the fact that some combinations can force a scumkill on someone we want N3). I'll add that and update in a bit. Don't want people working off of incomplete information.