Micro 661 | Scumteam UnPick - Pressure Done

[BlackVoid]

Hands down, you outplayed Smart D3 (as either alignment), but D3 is not the entirety of the game. It is a big part in why were are still here debating this.

I also think hands down, Tenshii outplayed AA9 on D1.
I also think hands down, I outplayed Smart D4.

D2 is the most ambiguous one and Smart did play well enough that I thought Dun was more likely to be scum than he was. But that's where he had the most motivation to bus.

[BlackVoid]

Kyouko was pretty dead on in that the likelihood of both Dun and Smart being town are really low.

[Creature]

Currently extending the deadline 48 hours.

Votecount 4.4

Votecount 4.4

[1] Something_Smart - BlackVoid
[0] Ms Columbo
[1] BlackVoid - Something_Smart

[0] Nolynch

Not voting: Ms Columbo

3 players are alive and 2 votes is needed to reach majority.

Deadline: (expired on 2017-01-24 21:00:00)

[BlackVoid]

Oh, by the way, if you are paranoid that I could be really good scum and do all the things I'm doing as scum, see my wiki where I state that I have a moderately strong preference towards playing town.

I can be good as town. I have a decent track record of lynching scum more often than not. I've instantly figured out scumteams or narrowed them down pretty well upon replacing in late-game which is what happened here. But there's always more motivation to win when I'm town. So as far as trying to win games, I try a lot harder as town which means selling you on my being town.

I know why you are having misgivings. I often tend to not push so hard as scum because standard sales tactic is to pretend you don't desperately want to win in the same way salespeople try to make the customer think that they don't really, really need the sale. Because pushing too hard can look suspicious or cause them to tune it out. You should try and understand that whatever misgivings you have about scum really badly wanting to win actually apply to town not wanting to get mislynched as well. The standard scumtell of not wanting to get lynched goes out the window at this point because town is fighting just as desperately to not get lynched. Look at the actual evidence from D2 and see how much Smart had to gain from making the plays he did.

[BlackVoid]

You are not even trying to figure the game out anymore. You are paranoid that I could be playing a wonderful scumgame, probably because I remind you of someone who does. Then you are actively looking for reasons to justify your gut feeling so you can feel better about it. Those reasons are getting more and more convoluted. Is it possible that I could have bussed Prohawk for the heck of it just because Jaack suspected him, then spent the entirety of D3 pretending to read Dun and and use hours of my time making an account on another site, going over her games there, all to look town, and finally going up against Smart? Sure. But mafia is not about what's possible. It's also possible Jaack misread his role PM and you are not actually clear and you are screwing with me for two weeks. (I'll admit this was an exaggeration to drive home my point). Why wouldn't I bus? It's simple. With how much the Prohawk-Tenshii connection was thrown around, I wouldn't want to be STUCK having to mislynch both Dun and Smart. It makes sense to take a risk and lynch outside Prohawk.

If you stop trying to justify why I'm scum and look at it objectively, do you see that it's not only possible but LIKELY that Smart bussed Prohawk because he knew that with the way things were going, he'd win? That he coasted through D3 because he knew it was always Dun that was getting lynched and he needed to save his energy to go after me next rather than genuinely trying to see which of me or Dun were scummier and trying to end the game then and there like I did.

[Something_Smart]

BlackVoid is using a whole bunch of small misreps and fallacies in his recent posts. (More so than before; probably he's trying to jack up the rhetoric out of desperation.)
I hate to nitpick, but all the broad arguments have already been made.

1. Someone noticing a connection between two scum is a reason

not

to bus because the cred would be limited as people still wonder after the flip.

This is AT LEAST balanced by the suspicion put on such a pair if a mislynch occurs outside it. Even if the two of them managed to secure a mislynch (me, as he suggests was most feasible), the fact that such a connection was called out and then both players pushed a mislynch looks horrible for them. The only way to contest such a pairing is to try to prove it wrong.

5. What motivation do I have to "test the winds" for a Prohawk lynch as opposed to just townread him so he's not even on the lynch table to begin with?

It wasn't hard to tell that I might switch to ProHawk. I had had Dunhallym as lowest with ProHawk second, and I had just started to lay off of Dunhallym. If you townread him and I come out with a case on him, even if people aren't convinced that strengthens the connection between you two.

I mean, your theory is that I bussed Prohawk to make it more difficult for me to win because a guy you know likes making absurd plays... If you honestly think I'd be setting up absurd challenges for myself and messing up my sleep schedule for nothing when I could have just teamed up with Prohawk and won, you're jumping through hoops to see me as scum when I'm not.

Vastly oversimplifying the situation.

Smart's whole "he could have switched away from Prohawk" is just trying to play on your paranoia. Anyone could have hypothetically changed their reads at any time. But I didn't. I voted Prohawk, I stuck to it and ensured he got lynched when not doing so would mean a very likely win were I scum.

BV didn't ensure ProHawk got lynched, he put him at L-1 and Grey lolhammered.
And by the way, anyone can hypothetically change their reads at any time. But it's a heck of a lot easier if they don't have a vote down.

I've been trying to explain this but here's the major difference between Tenshii and Smart - Tenshii never posted strategically to avoid prods. He posted when he could. He got prodded from time to time. When he was engaging Prohawk, he posted a lot in a short time frame. It was unself-conscious and natural. He WAS replaced out. Smart is still here. Can you see the difference? That's because Smart was posting just enough to stay in the game. There's a difference between inactive players and active lurkers.

That's only because I have the commitment to avoid getting replaced due to inactivity. And, incidentally, my activity was anything but active lurking-- active lurking entails posting infrequently and providing very little content.

I've been trying extremely hard to sell you on Smart as scum because he is and I need to do that to win the game for town. I'd probably also need to do it if I were scum so it's null. Right now, both me and Smart are in identical situations where we both need to get the other lynched in order to win whereas you win by choosing correctly.

...

His major advantage is that he knew you entered the day pre-biased towards him so if he could just respond to questions and survives, he would be fine. His play I think would actually be majorly different if he were town. I think he'd check in more often, he'd be a little more concerned with how things are going.

Funny how he makes the first argument when it suits him, and then makes the second argument conveniently ignoring the fact that it's also completely true regardless of my alignment.

The things you indicate you would only do as town are things I've watched scum do.

Are you saying you've never seen scum coast through the game when town argue amongst themselves?

This is some kind of fallacy, asserting that just because something is possible that therefore it is likely. Also handwaving Columbo's point.

You are not even trying to figure the game out anymore. You are paranoid that I could be playing a wonderful scumgame, probably because I remind you of someone who does.

More fallacy and misrep.

[BlackVoid]

So Smart is so busy that he could not analyze my interactions with Prohawk for a period of over three weeks but miraculously, he has free time roughly every forty-hours so he can dodge a prod.

@Columbo

- let me know when you are here tonight. This is our last chance to talk things over and make sure we win.

[Ms Columbo]

When I replaced in, Jaack was the only one pushing Prohawk. Smart had expressed suspicion but never pushed him. I think Jaack said Prohawk was "flailing" as rhetoric or to sell his case but I don't think the lynch was already set in stone at the time I replaced in. There were still a lot of people townreading Prohawk and he may have legitimately thought he could get Jaack lynched. Which post are you referring to by the way?

I'm annoyed you make sense.

There were a few posts, but the last major one was #417 where Jacck lays out his full case.

Ah, that makes sense. Out of curiosity, how many times have you been in lylo before? Also, curious how many mafia games you played total.

<snip>

Why were asking me for additional games if you're not even going to read the one game that you do have available?

I don't think I've been in lylo before as town. Certainly not as the lone deciding factor.

I did look at your scum game, I'll take another look. Problem is one game is not a good sample.

[Ms Columbo]

Didn't finish that thought. I've played in about a dozen games on my home site. I subbed into one other game here besides this and currently in another from the get go.

[Ms Columbo]

Why do you think Grey was killed N2?

[BlackVoid]

I expected Jaack to die but he was more predictably against me so I suspect Smart wanted him around for another day. If Jaack dies, there's pretty much no one to hard-push the Tenshii-Prohawk angle so it may have been a waste to bus.

[BlackVoid]

Are you still online? Want to go over a few things in real time.

[BlackVoid]

I did look at your scum game, I'll take another look. Problem is one game is not a good sample.

Okay. So, you think one scumgame is too small a sample size to read me. I'll show you a recent game I was in as town in 3-way lylo. I eventually voted scum and it was a 1v1 between me and the scum - pretty much the EXACT situation as here. Start reading from here which is where I put down the vote on Prism. NN30 posts to confirm himself and then I continue selling him on Prism being scum and fielding his questions. Let me know if my posts in that game give you a similar feeling to what twinged your gut here. It's only a couple of pages from there to the end of the game. (Shadow_Step was the guy I replaced by the way and I was pointing out reasons why he was town.)

[BlackVoid]

12 hours left. It's somewhat annoying that you don't engage any points that aren't directly brought up to you in real time but the only times you are online are at three in the morning? I still seem to have missed you somehow despite waking up in the middle of the night.

[BlackVoid]

@Columbo, if you read nothing else, read this:

Please don't lose us the game when the most straightforward evidence points to Smart because you are paranoid about the possibility of me being able to play like this as scum. To win the game, both townies need to work as a team, me with being transparent and you with figuring that out. I've left no stone unturned as far as transparency is concerned. This was actually a pretty good game of mine where I was able to put in consistent effort throughout and never had any off moments. I'm not this town even in my other towngames let alone scumgames. I make sense because I'm town. You're being a bit unfair to me by suggesting possible but fairly unlikely scenarios over the more likely one. I can't convince you that it's absolutely 100% impossible that I'm scum. Occam's razor points to Smart as far more

likely

scum than me and that's why you should vote him.

Can I ask what's holding you back? Is there anything else you need from me? Then let me know when you'll be online next. I should be online again this morning and will keep checking in until the deadline.

[BlackVoid]

When I replaced in, Jaack was the only one pushing Prohawk. Smart had expressed suspicion but never pushed him. I think Jaack said Prohawk was "flailing" as rhetoric or to sell his case but I don't think the lynch was already set in stone at the time I replaced in. There were still a lot of people townreading Prohawk and he may have legitimately thought he could get Jaack lynched. Which post are you referring to by the way?

I'm annoyed you make sense.

This is basically the most important part of D2 contrasted with Smart's motive to win by bussing and chaining two mislynches. His suggestion that you bus when your partner is tied to you is nonsense. You bus when your partner is tied to a townie (if tied to multiple townies, even better).

I don't think I need to argue that Tenshii was far townier than AA9 nor that my D3 play was far townier than Smart. It's because I'm town and he's scum. I'm not Yogsloth or whoever he is and you need to set aside your paranoia and see that.

[Ms Columbo]

I'm here. I fell asleep sitting here with my laptop.

OK, this may come as a surprise, I think I believe you. I did reread your game, I remember getting a good chuckle about nn saying he ran out of the shower to unvote you.

[Ms Columbo]

@Smart - when BV replaced in, you had two votes. If BV is scum, why not try to lynch you instead of busing his partner?

[Ms Columbo]

BV - You thought the Secret agent Jim slot looked town near the end of D1 (when it was his sub). I thought perhaps Smart looked like he knew too much. Do you think that was a read town should of spotted - should Dun have reevaluated her position instead of pushing harder?

[Ms Columbo]

Kyouko was pretty dead on in that the likelihood of both Dun and Smart being town are really low.

Don't you think that was mostly do to probabilities? Dun, Smart, and Kyouko were in the most possible pairs.

[BlackVoid]

Whoo. Finally progress. I really thought you were just ignoring my posts until now.

Yeah, Kyouko's post had to do with probabilities. I was just remarking that what he said was true. I knew it was true even D3 but it's amusing that it didn't help me at all.

[BlackVoid]

BV - You thought the Secret agent Jim slot looked town near the end of D1 (when it was his sub). I thought perhaps Smart looked like he knew too much. Do you think that was a read town should of spotted - should Dun have reevaluated her position instead of pushing harder?

That's an interesting question. I didn't find Smart's defence of SAJ particularly concerning. That was actually one of things I liked when I was comparing him and Dun. To me, Jin and Kyouko were both towntelling and Dun just kept pushing that through. Smart then called out Dun very convincingly which was one the major reasons that swayed me into thinking Dun was scummier.

Knowing now that Smart is scum, yeah he was probably whiteknighting Jin for the cred. Prohawk was pushing on the wagon so they must have decided that one of them would stick up for the D1 mislynch so they get towncred.

[Something_Smart]

@Smart - when BV replaced in, you had two votes. If BV is scum, why not try to lynch you instead of busing his partner?

Like I said, the Tenshii/ProHawk connection was starting to become defined. For BV to replace in and immediately push on me in essentially a chainsaw to ProHawk would, even if I were lynched, make that connection very well-defined. And if that push isn't successful, then they're left in an even more terrible spot.

BV is a person who thinks ahead; this is evident. So it would have been clear to him that a mislynch on me would put heavy suspicion on him (since I no doubt would have fought it) and also on ProHawk, whom he would essentially be shielding.

Granted, it's not obvious whether what he did was smarter than pushing on me. But it was definitely more forward-thinking. It also could be the case that he thought I would get lynched without his help.

[BlackVoid]

What Smart ignored is that if he was actually town and he and Prohawk had pushed each other, knowing Prohawk's alignment makes it much harder to get Smart lynched later. Lynching him when everyone thought Prohawk was town was actually a safer play so as to get a mislynch in that would otherwise become hard.

Second thing, if I were scum, I'd push Smart because the next phase would be 5-way lylo which is not only notoriously difficult for town to win, nobody would be clear. ZZZX, Gamma, Jaack, Dun all had some pressure on them and it would be easy to get lynches on lynchbait like ZZZX. Whereas if I did what Smart claims I did, I'd box myself into

needing

to lynch Smart to win.

Sure, pushing Smart would mean dealing with some suspicion. But players are rarely lynched just for pushing a mislynch. Jaack pushed SAJ/Kyouko and was still universally townread. Also, putting town in 5-way lylo with basically no information and no clears would have been a very advantageous situation.

As I said, I can't prove that it would be impossible but it's a lot less likely I passed up on those chances than that Smart bussed because he thought he could chain Dun's and my lynches to Prohawk and win outright. Smart also didn't have any other truly viable option since the most likely lynch outside Prohawk was Smart himself.

[BlackVoid]

And if I were hoping he'd get lynched without my help, I'd push in a completely different direction like Dun, ZZZX or Gamma with unpersuasive arguments, not contribute directly towards Prohawk's lynch.