You used a lot of words to argue for everybody basically doing whatever they want and passing the chain to people they think is townIn post 8, beeboy wrote:I've thought about the strategy to this game today and it is optimal play for town is to just hand the chain to whoever they are confident is town and is least likely to get a chain from someone else.
The person who holds the most power is the 2nd last person to hold the chain since they choose who dies,if we get a pool of 3 people, 2 scum and 1 town 33% of the time scum lives, same odds occur if we get a pool of 2 town 1 scumsince 66% of the time we have a 50% shot of hitting scum. So getting a whole bunch of scum at the end of our pool hardly helps us win. And letting town control who dies is incredibly valuable.
We also want a somewhat random town player being 2nd last so we shouldn't just select a "2nd last town" to make the kill, we want a fluid game state that allows for people to have free will especially in the early game since information is more valuable then actually hitting scum day 1 and 2. You can't solve a lot of players without letting them make hard hitting choices and by just shoving choices down their throat we can't ever get a solid read.
NU = Negative Utility.In post 11, midwaybear wrote:That's a good observation with the odds. I did the math and everything checks out. However, that is assuming everything is random. You can generalize it to if we have n scum and 1 town, scum has n/n+1 chance of living. As an exercise, maybe we can figure out the probabilities if there are two town. However, this is based off of everything being completely random, and I don't think our actions here will be random.
pedit: what is NU?
I think I contradicted myself in their but I changed my mind, we should have a somewhat clear town be the 2nd last person.In post 12, Dunnstral wrote:You used a lot of words to argue for everybody basically doing whatever they want and passing the chain to people they think is town
Yes Yes thank you Dunnstral.In post 18, Dunnstral wrote:So basically, someone towny should hold the chain to decide who dies. Makes sense.
Good Work!In post 8, beeboy wrote:I've thought about the strategy to this game today and it is optimal play for town is to just hand the chain to whoever they are confident is town and is least likely to get a chain from someone else.
The person who holds the most power is the 2nd last person to hold the chain since they choose who dies,if we get a pool of 3 people, 2 scum and 1 town 33% of the time scum lives, same odds occur if we get a pool of 2 town 1 scumsince 66% of the time we have a 50% shot of hitting scum. So getting a whole bunch of scum at the end of our pool hardly helps us win. And letting town control who dies is incredibly valuable.
We also want a somewhat random town player being 2nd last so we shouldn't just select a "2nd last town" to make the kill, we want a fluid game state that allows for people to have free will especially in the early game since information is more valuable then actually hitting scum day 1 and 2. You can't solve a lot of players without letting them make hard hitting choices and by just shoving choices down their throat we can't ever get a solid read.
