Each player has a base probability of being town at 6/9. If dwlee and clidd are both scum, then we know that dwlee is scum. If 1 of them is scum then we know it must be dwlee because one of the results must be true. So the only scenario to really consider is if they are both town.
If dwlee and clidd are both town then the odds that we get a guilty on dwlee are 1/2 * 3/8 = 3/16. Using bayes theorem, we can say that the probability that dwlee is town given the guilty is equal to the probability of a guilty given dwlee is town (3/16) times the independent probability of dwlee being town (6/9) divided by the independent probability of a guilty on a townie (3/8). Do all the arithmetic and you end up with 1/3.
In post 79, Dwlee99 wrote:You should also include the probability of clidd getting selected because we would be having this same conversation if that happened but about clidd.
@pav he just gives me town vibes and I would have hammered that too. T3 was bad vibes.
T3 giving bad vibes happens in just about every game he plays, he said so himself
In post 53, Dwlee99 wrote:Clidd is conftown and infinity is weird champ for suggesting that we just kill me based on probability. I don't even know if the math is right but I have to double check it.
Is it weird to want to vote someone who has a 73% chance of being scum?
Even if my math is wrong it's very unlikely that a townie gets named as mafia
I will straight up disregard all reason if you have a PR dream again. You can come back and be like, “I dreamt that Locke is a N2 Bulletproof Multitasking Cop and Self-Targeting Doctor,” and I will go, “Okay, Locke kill it is then.”
In post 76, MURDERCAT wrote:independent probability of a guilty on a townie (3/8)
This should be independent probability of a guilty yeah?
I got the same answer as you by doing a weighted average is there a simpler way to do it
Anyway
3/16 * 5/8 / (3/8) = 5/16
I'm not gonna include the clidd math because that's too complicated
It's still lower than the probability of pooky being town given a quickhammer given any reasonable inputs. It's funny cause it seems like datisi seems like he's doing a Bayes theorem calculation in his head but if I knew what numbers he was putting into that I'd be pretty appalled. Town can quickhammer too
Yeah you are right, I started with an assumption that they are town so that makes it weird when I calculate the probability they are town...
The actual calculation including all scenarios and T3 town is actually way harder than I thought and you need to make an assumption about the likelihood scum puts in 0, 1, and 2 townies
"town can quickhammer" yeah sure. give me some proof that town!pooky would be that much of an ass to catapult someone 26 posts into the game. alternatively give me proof that pooky actually thought t3 had a decent amount of scum equity. without either of those, pooky is so much more likely to be scum, and this should be a no-brainer
I will straight up disregard all reason if you have a PR dream again. You can come back and be like, “I dreamt that Locke is a N2 Bulletproof Multitasking Cop and Self-Targeting Doctor,” and I will go, “Okay, Locke kill it is then.”
In post 92, Datisi wrote:"town can quickhammer" yeah sure. give me some proof that town!pooky would be that much of an ass to catapult someone 26 posts into the game. alternatively give me proof that pooky actually thought t3 had a decent amount of scum equity. without either of those, pooky is so much more likely to be scum, and this should be a no-brainer
I shouldn't need to come up with a plausible-sounding town motivation to argue that pooky has less than a 70% chance of being scum here. Of course it's bad play as town but like, come on. No play-based info will give someone a 70% chance of being scum, 50% would be generous.
how the hell are you coming up with less than 70% chance of being scum?
I will straight up disregard all reason if you have a PR dream again. You can come back and be like, “I dreamt that Locke is a N2 Bulletproof Multitasking Cop and Self-Targeting Doctor,” and I will go, “Okay, Locke kill it is then.”
Yeah you are right, I started with an assumption that they are town so that makes it weird when I calculate the probability they are town...
The actual calculation including all scenarios and T3 town is actually way harder than I thought and you need to make an assumption about the likelihood scum puts in 0, 1, and 2 townies
Sure, I just calculated the weighted average of dwlee getting a guilty as town and as mafia. I don't know if I did the same thing as you but I still got 3/8. Obviously you could get more precise if you wanted to and made more assumptions but I won't
