Mafia 86 - mafia.gif - Game Over!

[Sierra]

Checking in before going to bed, and I see it's my turn already.

I'm a vanilla townie.

More input from me coming after the weekend.

[Jahudo]

Jahudo: Knowing that Jebus had lied in his investigation results, why didn't you kill him last night?

He still knew that EA killed those people so either his power role was right or he was scum with EA. Since the dead japs and greeks don't appear to have PR's I figured it would be one of those options.

Since EA murdered sekinj they could only be greek together in this scenario. I figured greeks chances of winning were slim enough and defendant on other factors that if EA and Jebus were greek together I could monitor them and hope to have a better idea on the third greek.

There has to be a way to make this work out right. I dont think there would be two doctors in a game,

Is that what you become once the SK is turned into a vanilla? That's what the Wiki says under "Psychiatrist" but you are a "Psychologist" and there isn't a Wiki for that. It says Psychiatrists are linked so there has to be an SK. Do you think the Psychologist = Psychiatrist? Does anyone think a naive Psychologist/Psychiatrist is bastard modding or legit?

and according to the mod a faction doublekilling a player would register both methods in the night scene.

Who said that and where?

The SK is immune to NKs, and one of the mafia factions just tried to kill them last night.

It would have had to of been the last remaining greek. Since the greeks went into night with 3 people, maybe SL or farside tried to send their kill but it didn't work because they got killed first? Or maybe they thought that killing EA was more important. From their POV, EA wouldn't be greek, jap (he already NK'ed one), or SK (if they believed you).

Now, today we can try and lynch Greek. IF and only if we lynch greek.

Why if and only if greek? They both have 1 now right?

Then force out some night actions as follows. EA - Jahudo target eachother, I target Jahudo.

This is probably the best solution.

What do people think of my farside and springlullaby reads? I disagree with this:

thinking about it gets you into a blatant Wifom situation, so I choose to avoid that.

Because I believe that more often than not scum will support a town lynch that A) doesn't contradict the scum's prior statements and B) is already wagoned with town members. They don't have to vote like opportunistic scum but they should show more enthusiasm than farside and SL did towards Niv.

[LlamaFluff]

Thinking more what I said first only works if Jahudo is the SK, if he is vig it fails pretty badly since it leaves two anti town in four remaining alive. Maybe lynching one of the vig claims is the best move. It finds the SK beyond a shadow of a doubt which is good, although it can have the reprecussion of leaving a forced lynch tomorrow in the SK unless mafia wants to pick him off instead.

On the plus side though it does give mafia more incentive to cross kill instead of hunting town given a prisoners delimma type endgame that could easily occur from this sort of a setup.

Looking at Jahudo/EA though everything tells me that Jahudo is the vig

except

my role information. Right now I am trying to figure out if somehow EA can dodge a hit from me, I got roleblocked or what really. I just cant believe that EA is the vig and Jahudo is the SK given that first Jahudo had no real reason to claim, kills line up with Jahudo as vig more then EA, and even kill method sounds like Jahudo is the vig instead. Even three kills and speculation on a NK-immune SK point to EA being the SK since a vig would of been a prime target for mafia to hit.

Gah!

Working numbers now 7 alive, 6 alive tonight.

Best case we lynch SK leaving vig, watcher, psyc, and three vanillas with two mafia in there. vig would basically need to hit mafia though during the night for town to have a chance, either that or have mafia cross/double kill. Hell this is even a best case scenario.

If we lynch the vig though things stay around the same since it becomes obvious who the SK is and I dont think they would be able to have any other outs since EA killed N1 so its not like he can give up a kill for recruit immunity, and the RB and doctor are gone even though I doubt the doctor would of done anything to my move. I just dont get the way things are playing out coupled with my role information. Best case scenario we gain a free town member, worse case scenario I really am just a red-herring type role and the game is basically over with something anti-town winning barring both mafia dying at night.

If we lynch mafia we have still two anti-town roles, and I get another shot as a psyc to try and see if Jahudo is the SK. If he is and I pick him up for town it looks a little bit better since either of our flips confirms the other one as town given that he has uncountered kills after a massclaim and my role with a lack of his kill makes him confirmed town.

I really am not sure what to do here since almost anything is skating on thin ice as it is. Either way we cant afford a mislynch today, and whatever lynch looks the highest probablility to netting anti-town is what needs to be taken.

What we have for shots are
1) SK - EA or Jahudo 100% certainty
2) Greek - Fonz or Sierra 99.9% certainty
3) Jap - ??

So naturally I want to lynch one of the four mentioned above. Just dont know which one yet though. Need to reread the time around EA claiming, and look back through greek connections to see if I can start gaining some confidence on what the best thing to do is here. It just seems like we can actually power out a win if we play correctly.

[LlamaFluff]

There has to be a way to make this work out right. I dont think there would be two doctors in a game,

Is that what you become once the SK is turned into a vanilla? That's what the Wiki says under "Psychiatrist" but you are a "Psychologist" and there isn't a Wiki for that. It says Psychiatrists are linked so there has to be an SK. Do you think the Psychologist = Psychiatrist? Does anyone think a naive Psychologist/Psychiatrist is bastard modding or legit?

All I know is that im a Psychologist and was told targeting a SK would turn them into vanilla and I would be told when I was successful. I dont think there is such thing as a naive obscure role and would be really pissed off if thats what I was, or if it was two vigs and I was a red herring role to mess with the town.

and according to the mod a faction doublekilling a player would register both methods in the night scene.

Who said that and where?

I PMed the mod to get an answer to that before my first idea post.

The SK is immune to NKs, and one of the mafia factions just tried to kill them last night.

It would have had to of been the last remaining greek. Since the greeks went into night with 3 people, maybe SL or farside tried to send their kill but it didn't work because they got killed first? Or maybe they thought that killing EA was more important. From their POV, EA wouldn't be greek, jap (he already NK'ed one), or SK (if they believed you).

Right, this again is another thing that points to EA-SK which really is messing with me given that my role is saying he isnt.

Now, today we can try and lynch Greek. IF and only if we lynch greek.

Why if and only if greek? They both have 1 now right?

Greek has to be between two people so it makes more sense to look there. EA and you are killing roles, Jebus is a watcher, massive doesnt fit after that BS wagon yesterday and im the psych. Just leaves two people to fill that slot.

Then force out some night actions as follows. EA - Jahudo target eachother, I target Jahudo.

This is probably the best solution.

Not if EA is SK though as I found out when I started running scenarios since it just about forces a town loss.

What do people think of my farside and springlullaby reads? I disagree with this:

thinking about it gets you into a blatant Wifom situation, so I choose to avoid that.

Because I believe that more often than not scum will support a town lynch that A) doesn't contradict the scum's prior statements and B) is already wagoned with town members. They don't have to vote like opportunistic scum but they should show more enthusiasm than farside and SL did towards Niv.

I actually do see your point on this one, trying to calculate if actions towards Niv or actions from Sierra are the bigger tell and I still am pretty conflicted over the two.

[LlamaFluff]

*sigh*

I reread the area of the game where EA claimed vig, I looked over the NKs and compared them to ongoing discussion from the players and from the town and Jahudo seems to really be the vig. I just dont get how EA is the SK though without me being unknowingly blocked, ineffective or some other role somehow screwed with my night actions.

Ive been running through the scenarios and if the SK really is NK immune, they are the top priority over any other role. Even if we mislynch the vig I can at least attempt to target the SK tonight, with any luck it would work this time, and worst case scenario we have confirmed anti-town tomorrow right off the bat.

Vote EA

[Jahudo]

Greek has to be between two people so it makes more sense to look there. EA and you are killing roles, Jebus is a watcher, massive doesnt fit after that BS wagon yesterday and im the psych. Just leaves two people to fill that slot.

If either Fonz or Sierra is greek, then wouldn't the last jap be either massive or Fonz/Sierra that isn't greek? Then I understand what you're saying that we have the best chance at finding mafia in Fonz/Sierra.

I just dont get how EA is the SK though without me being unknowingly blocked, ineffective or some other role somehow screwed with my night actions.

You've probably already answered this, but have you gotten PM's saying this guy isn't SK each time? Was night 1 any different? I'll admit that getting RB'ed sounds more realistic than naive psy or red herring psy.

Even if we mislynch the vig I can at least attempt to target the SK tonight, with any luck it would work this time, and worst case scenario we have confirmed anti-town tomorrow right off the bat.

There shouldn't be anything to stop you now unless getting killed prevents you from using a power. And it will give us an extra town, meaning an extra vote tomorrow.

[LlamaFluff]

Greek has to be between two people so it makes more sense to look there. EA and you are killing roles, Jebus is a watcher, massive doesnt fit after that BS wagon yesterday and im the psych. Just leaves two people to fill that slot.

If either Fonz or Sierra is greek, then wouldn't the last jap be either massive or Fonz/Sierra that isn't greek? Then I understand what you're saying that we have the best chance at finding mafia in Fonz/Sierra.

When I am looking for Greek mafia I can eliminate you and EA due to you two being vig/SK. Jebus is the watcher which is proven or the most amazing lucky guess from scum ever. Massive I dont think is Greek after the wagon that farside and SL tried to start on him yesterday on the weakest reasoning possible. That just leaves Fonz and Sierra from process of elim.

I dont have any solid reasoning to eliminate Massive from being Jap mafia, so its in that trio that I see the last Jap mafia. 1/2 is better odds then 1/3 if we are going to insist on mafia hunting over Sk hunting.

I just dont get how EA is the SK though without me being unknowingly blocked, ineffective or some other role somehow screwed with my night actions.

You've probably already answered this, but have you gotten PM's saying this guy isn't SK each time? Was night 1 any different? I'll admit that getting RB'ed sounds more realistic than naive psy or red herring psy.

I just got a target list when I replaced in, and my investigations havent gotten anything more then an acknowlagement from the mod. It leads me to believe that I wouldnt be told when I was roleblocked for that reason, when I asked if I got confirmation on being blocked I got the typical "cant say" response.

Even if we mislynch the vig I can at least attempt to target the SK tonight, with any luck it would work this time, and worst case scenario we have confirmed anti-town tomorrow right off the bat.

There shouldn't be anything to stop you now unless getting killed prevents you from using a power. And it will give us an extra town, meaning an extra vote tomorrow.

Exactly why I want an SK lynch. I am pretty sure that the SK doesnt have any way to dodge my conversion appart from interaction with other roles. Getting killed shouldnt prevent me from using a power but im just trying to map out any possible scenario, if for some reason I die and the SK stays SK they are outed in this situation.

[Jahudo]

Exactly why I want an SK lynch. I am pretty sure that the SK doesnt have any way to dodge my conversion appart from interaction with other roles. Getting killed shouldnt prevent me from using a power but im just trying to map out any possible scenario, if for some reason I die and the SK stays SK they are outed in this situation.

Short version: This prevents an SK win so a smart SK would join the townies and free up today's lynch for scum.

[Erratus Apathos]

I have doubts about LF's claim, but I don't think I can win as SK at this point anyways, so I'm just going to hope he's telling the truth and did get roleblocked on day 1. I am in fact the serial killer.

With that cleared up, if LF is honest then this leads to a guaranteed town win plan:

Today: We lynch Fonz.
Tonight: LF recruits me, Jahudo vigs Sierra, Jebus watches Jahudo.
Tomorrow: If both me and LF are both alive to confirm a successful recruit, we lynch massive. Otherwise, we lynch whichever of me and LF is still alive, then Jahudo vigs massive.

(Note that Fonz, Sierra, and massive in this example are interchangable.)

Does anyone have a problem with this plan?

[LlamaFluff]

^^^I endorese the above product^^^

unvote
vote Fonz

[Jahudo]

Today: We lynch Fonz.
Tonight: LF recruits me, Jahudo vigs Sierra, Jebus watches Jahudo.
Tomorrow: If both me and LF are both alive to confirm a successful recruit, we lynch massive. Otherwise, we lynch whichever of me and LF is still alive, then Jahudo vigs massive.

I am in favor of this plan.

Vote: The Fonz

[The Fonz]

How about we complete the damn massclaim?

From my perspective, either Jahudo or Llama HAS to be scum. Jahudo's claim of vig means that with the two scumgroups, we've then got all four kills claimed. Either Jahudo is the SK, or Llama was lying when he said unequivocally that EA is not, there are no other options- UNLESS someone admits to having blocked Llama in the remaining part of the massclaim.

[Erratus Apathos]

Vote: The Fonz

[Jahudo]

How about we complete the damn massclaim?

Everyone's claimed.

Either Jahudo is the SK, or Llama was lying when he said unequivocally that EA is not, there are no other options- UNLESS someone admits to having blocked Llama in the remaining part of the massclaim.

EA claimed SK. Either LlamaFluff is pulling a five star fake claim or was RB'ed night 1 by hascow's predecessor, which we can't know. But a Roleblocker was alive night 1 when Llama's predecessor checked EA.

Fonz is at L-1. We should have more talk about who is greek and jap in people's eyes. I'm not sure which of Sierra and massive is more likely Fonz.

Llama: can you post you're Sierra case in full?
Jebus: can you post you're massive case in full?

[LlamaFluff]

Fonz is at L-1. We should have more talk about who is greek and jap in people's eyes. I'm not sure which of Sierra and massive is more likely Fonz.

Llama: can you post you're Sierra case in fulll?

Reading interactions I would be shocked if Fonz wasnt Greek given how much the wagon on massive defended him during D4, a wagon that was supported primarily of Greek and called stupid by everyone else.

That makes either Sierra or Massive Jap, and the distiction there is pretty hard given that they both were lurky and for the most part ignored the dead Jap members (and vice-versa).

If I had to pick I would lean Sierra as the Jap mafia member just barely given that her early suspicions in the game really included no greek scum, but there were occassional mentions of Jap mafia, mixed in with town as secondary suspects. The entire game she never voted for any of the dead Jap mafia, but apparently bought the "smiley meta" that was used against Stef and called him suspect for it. Also she called sek suspect for defending stef with kuf.

I would just recommend sticking to the plan since I am fairly sure that massive is town just given how he has played. PoE basically makes Fonz/Sierra as the last mafia, and in the event that Massive is mafia, a vig of Sierra tonight (who also becomes forced Greek if Fonz flips town) would leave Massive as the last scum since the SK will be vanilla tomorrow.

[The Fonz]

Greek has to be between two people so it makes more sense to look there. EA and you are killing roles, Jebus is a watcher, massive doesnt fit after that BS wagon yesterday and im the psych. Just leaves two people to fill that slot.

If either Fonz or Sierra is greek, then wouldn't the last jap be either massive or Fonz/Sierra that isn't greek? Then I understand what you're saying that we have the best chance at finding mafia in Fonz/Sierra.

When I am looking for Greek mafia I can eliminate you and EA due to you two being vig/SK. Jebus is the watcher which is proven or the most amazing lucky guess from scum ever. Massive I dont think is Greek after the wagon that farside and SL tried to start on him yesterday on the weakest reasoning possible.

Just FYI, incredibly weakly reasoned attacks are an indicator of bussing, since they're not likely to turn into actual lynches. Also, I can't remember which of you it is that was saying that farside defended me by wagoning massive instead- when farside had unvoted massive before i even replaced in.

Look, it was a vote, based on terrible, 'oh is that a scum slip' reasoning, and dropped immediately she felt she could get a lynch on someone else. That's not pushing a wagon. That's distancing. Farside was on BlakAdder for most of the day, which says to me she thought he was rival scum.

Springlullaby

never even voted massive

, which kinda torpedoes the theory that the pair of them were 'trying to start a wagon.' The totality of them 'trying to start a wagon' consists in one incredibly badly reasoned vote, which was removed

one post later

, and SL saying he was her second suspect after BA, whilst voting BA (scumbuddy second) and then saying she'd be willing to hammer if ever a wagon arose on massive, on the spurious premise that she didn't like him returning to the game after a replacement had been found.

Seriously, Llama if you're not scum the way you're playing really pisses me off, because it only took me, like, five minutes to look all of that up. And that little lot couldn't be more obviously a bus if it were red, had two decks, a driver, a conductor and an advert on the side saying 'God probably doesn't exist. Now stop worrying and get on with your lives.'

That just leaves Fonz and Sierra from process of elim.

Remind me to give you the lecture on why i hate process of elimination when the game is over.

I will

vote: Massive

In the pretty certain knowledge that he will hammer me.

[Jahudo]

Also, I can't remember which of you it is that was saying that farside defended me by wagoning massive instead- when farside had unvoted massive before i even replaced in.

It was Niv but that's still you.

Day 3 farside replaces in and attacks Seraphim who doesn't have pressure on him.
Day 4 Niv replaces in and practically everyone but farside and springlullaby push his wagon. Farside says she has no case on him which is a lie because she never dropped her case on Seraphim.

Why?

[Jebus]

I have doubts about LF's claim, but I don't think I can win as SK at this point anyways, so I'm just going to hope he's telling the truth and did get roleblocked on day 1. I am in fact the serial killer.

With that cleared up, if LF is honest then this leads to a guaranteed town win plan:

Today: We lynch Fonz.
Tonight: LF recruits me, Jahudo vigs Sierra, Jebus watches Jahudo.
Tomorrow: If both me and LF are both alive to confirm a successful recruit, we lynch massive. Otherwise, we lynch whichever of me and LF is still alive, then Jahudo vigs massive.

(Note that Fonz, Sierra, and massive in this example are interchangable.)

Does anyone have a problem with this plan?

Okay, I'll take it.

My one problem is having LF recruit you - we could still use you as a vig.

Other than that, I love this plan.

So

unvote, Vote: The Fonz

[Claus]

Please stand by - Lynch Scene coming in a few hours.

[Claus]

I'm Sorry

I don't have the time right now to make a proper lynch scene, , I'll try to make up for it in the day scene.

The Fonz was lynched, he was a

townie

Please submit night choices.

[Claus]

Almost all gifs are gone

This is the only one left.

(Look for the cheeky excuse for the mod not to write a nightscene.

Sierra was killed! She was a

Greek mafia member.

Massive was murdered! He was a

Townie.

Jebus was slain! He was a

watcher.

It is now Day 6. With 3 players alive, it takes 2 votes to lynch.

Take your time!

[LlamaFluff]

Vote EA

Should be obvious what I am. Your choice who wins since EA is NK immune even though I think thanks to a wierd win condition this is a draw or everyone loses thing

[Jahudo]

You had a good fake claim I'll give you that. With all the scum we've had I was willing to believe that hascow really blocked you but maybe you did slip because I've only heard of a psychiatrist treating a SK, not a psychologist.

[Clint Eastwood]The only winner today's gonna be the undertaker.[/Eastwood]

Vote: EA

[Claus]

Final Day

The three pistoleros met as the sun rose.

Three pairs of eyes. Three hands to their pistols. Two quickly point to their target. One takes one moment too much to move.

Erratos Apathos, SK, was Lynched Day 6

The last town, and the last japanese mafia. The sun was setting. Each had a gun, what would happen?

Llama

: I think thanks to a wierd win condition this is a draw

Jahudo

: The only winner today's gonna be the undertaker.

???

: Wait!

Llama

: What?

Jahudo

: Huh?

???

: Read your winning conditions carefully:

: You win after all threats to town have been removed, even if you are already dead.

: You win automatically if at any point in the game 50% or more of the living players are members of the Japanese Mafia and it’s impossible to revert this majority.

???

: Notice the term "any point in the game". You have lynched EA. It is twilight now.

Jahudo:

This means.... Oh!



Jahudo - Vig - Assassinated in Twilight



Japanese Mafia Wins!

[Jahudo]

ouch. I'm surprised this lasted as long as it did since we didn't lynch scum until day 6.