Newbie 1876 - Game Over!

[Skygazer]

Hello all, thank you for what I can only assume will be a very warm welcome.

I mean... I still have a little bit of lean on nonny = Scum, although not as strongly as before..

Why is that?

[Skygazer]

Ice, do you have any other scum reads besides E2.7?

[Skygazer]

VOTE: Ice

107 seems very noncommittal and kind of waffley to me, which isn't too big of a deal since it's early, but I also haven't seen them engage much at all other than to call out the obvious problems with E2.7's post and to ask E2.7 for reads. If Ice is so on the fence, I would think they'd be engaging more, asking questions, etc.

[Skygazer]

But the last part is a thought process that I'm not sure a scum player would post.

Why is that?

[Skygazer]

@Bins, why are you losing your townread on 2.7?

I don't really think 2.7 has been playing well at all, and he's been super defensive and non-committal in his reads. What I'm concerned about, however, is that they seem like he'd be an easy mislynch for scum to pull off if he happened to be town.

I agree with the nonny self-deprecation argument, it definitely reads to me as a defense mechanism, especially considering she's been much more concerned with defending herself than with scumhunting. Also, one of the few times she did appear to be scumhunting she didn't even back it up with a vote (and it kind of seemed like she was trying to score town-cred for not voting).

I would still like to see more from Ice, but I can kind of see their playstyle as valid, especially if they're not confident in their reads. I do want to see more from them as the game develops further so I can actually establish a read. For now, though...

VOTE: nonny

[Skygazer]

I think I am coming to a more solid decision about brass

It's kind of convenient that your read suddenly gets stronger with no new content from brass after you were called out for having a noncommittal read, wouldn't you think?

[Skygazer]

@2.7: It's not just the self-deprecation (at least for me, I can't speak for anyone else), it's about the weird push on formerfish without a vote (this could potentially be a scum move in that she could be trying to plant the idea of a formerfish lynch without drawing attention to herself by placing a vote/she could be attempting to gain towncred by pointing out how cautious she's being) and the fact that she seems to be more interested in defending herself than scumhunting in her last few posts.

[Skygazer]

I think I am coming to a more solid decision about brass

I will now go and research brass's posts further and figure out what I was thinking of.

So if nothing even immediately comes to mind how can you say just 4 hours ago that you've reached a more solid decision??

Yeah, but I have been thinking about the situation more ever since I have been called out. Sometimes your thoughts become clearer purely due to time.

This says nothing and is frustratingly vague. Have you been only thinking about just that one single post where brass voted you? I would think if you've actually been thinking about brass then you would have more stuff to say when prompted.

If it seems suspicious that I am "suddenly" investigating a lot of people, it is because I realized that I only have one real read right now, and I think I need more.

This preemptive defense feels really scummy to me.

[Skygazer]

Yeah, I agree with the fact that 2.7 said that there could be one PR is pretty sus. I really don't like this claim.

Also, I thought we were supposed to not lynch PR claims unless someone counter claims.

Ugh, this reads so so scummy to me.

[Skygazer]

Despite my feelings towards 2.7, I'm inclined to believe that lynching a claimed doctor is probably a bad idea today (as of right now). I don't see scum really taking the risk of leaving a doctor in the game and gambling with a potential no kill.

I also have to say that I don't see Guerilla pushing so adamantly for this lynch as scum, it doesn't really seem like scum would draw attention to themselves like that? So, townreading Guerilla.

[Skygazer]

I wish that there was a designated person who had an IC-like role but was not playing, therefore you could ask questions that might reveal your role ("So I found 2 townies as Cop, should I reveal now or later?" or "Should I, as scum, pretend to be a Tracker to try and win this LyLo?") without compromising the game.

I was rereading and came across this again. On the one hand, this kind of comes off as a really forced attempt to hint that they may be a power role, like it could be scum trying to set up a later claim. On the other hand, 2.7 hasn't pointed this post out at all to back up their claim. I kind of think that scum 2.7 would be much more likely to go back to this post in an attempt to prove their claim, yet 2.7 hasn't, which kind of sort of leads me to believe that this was just a reckless stream of conscious town post... Does anyone else have any thoughts about this post?

[Skygazer]

Skygazer: I made a post before about 2.7's 98, it does seem an odd statement, especially seeing that scum does have someone to talk to and possible guide them.

If 2.7 had another scum player to talk to then why would he make a post about wishing he had another more informed player to talk to about advice? I'm kind of thinking 98 is more indicative of town at this point.

[Skygazer]

If 2.7 had another scum player to talk to then why would he make a post about wishing he had another more informed player to ta. By itself, yes it can be seen that way. Initial impression was more just talking to talk and therefore neutral, at least that's how I read it.

You said that's your initial impression but I'm assuming you don't see it in a different light after 2.7's doc claim?

[Skygazer]

@ Bins, is brass still your strongest scum read? Do you have any other reads?

[Skygazer]

I think that the only reasons that ANYONE is voting for nonny is (1) the "self-deprecation" thing or (2) the voter is scum. And (1) has been debunked.
So, I am using the nonny situation to look for scum.

You can see in my vote that that's not the only reason I'm voting for nonny, but I don't even see how that point has been debunked anyways. As for why I'm still voting her, her unvote on you seemed sort of like a grab for towncred.

I really don't like the inactivity coming from Ice and bins, it's making it really hard to get reads.

[Skygazer]

Skygazer, if my unvote feels like a grab for "towncred" would you be having the same doubts on me if I had not unvoted and left a PR claim at L-1?

Okay, that's a good point. After reading your ISO you seem eager to scumhunt and I like your recent posts. I think I've had some tunnel-vision regarding your alignment.
UNVOTE:

[Skygazer]

VOTE: Trinity

Because:

You still have not answered what you think of the role claim.

And because her only two reads were on the two biggest wagons at the point she gave her reads.

[Skygazer]

I'm absolutely waffling on 2.7 at this point. His posts are really bad but I keep thinking that perhaps he's just extremely inept town who isn't dealing well with the pressure of being lynched this early as doctor. If I was doctor I don't think I'd take the prospect of being lynched well at all tbh.

[Skygazer]

Do you have any other scum reads? Any town reads?

[Skygazer]

Is this where you started reading? I find it odd that nothing before post 92 tickled you in any way enough to comment on them.

My first read-through was just a quick skim so I hadn't really developed any strong reads, so I thought I'd try asking a question about something recent. I do have some basic notes from earlier stuff after rereading a couple of times in the past couple of days but I hadn't gotten around to posting them (mostly because it's not entirely relevant considering the bizarre state of the game right now).

The early Guerilla posts were rubbing me the wrong way due to lack of substance and what I had perceived as a defensive tone in 81 but obviously there's a lot of substance coming from him now so... townread.

I really didn't like ff's early aggressive tone but oh my god he's been doing some good scumhunting and it would've been easy to continue lurking as scum but instead he came in with those great last few posts. Townread.

I thought brass's jump onto nonny was a little opportunistic especially considering he simply said "sus." Recently, he hasn't really been doing much to push nonny any further, only using his initial reasoning and calling her suspicious. I'd think town would be more inclined to poke and prod at nonny's more recent post rather than just sit there with the vote. Scumread.

[Skygazer]

I feel like ... Iceman [is] town.

What are you seeing here that I'm not seeing? Ice is completely null to me right now but I'd like more townreads.

[Skygazer]

I'd have to go back and pull actual posts, but mostly it's the way he posts, the tone, the fact that we just played together and I'm seeing a lot of the same behaviors here that he had as town there, and a similar thought process to myself. Like there is one post where he literally said almost the exact same thing I had written I'm response to a post I had just read. It was like reading my own posts from him. So mostly a gut thing.

Gotcha, it's weird not knowing anyone or their playstyles.

[Skygazer]

Nah, it's fine. People quickly figure out how to manipulate thier own meta and use it to their advantage. A lot of times you see vets use the relationships they have with other players as weapons. Like if I were scum and had a friend in the game I would know what they were looking for from me and would be able to play that aspect of my game up to get a town read.

Not having that means you have a clean slate to work with and you can avoid any bais or congnative dissonance as a result of those relationships.

Thanks for the reassurance (:

UNVOTE: cuz I'm getting cold feet.

Wanna sheep my trinity vote?

[Skygazer]

And because her only two reads were on the two biggest wagons at the point she gave her reads.

To flesh this out more, I think those two reads are easy and convenient for scum to make without drawing attention to themselves. She hasn't really posted any other reads and these two reads just seem like she just picked the easiest reads when prompted.

[Skygazer]

Nonny still looks to me like she could be scum, she seems defensive of 2.7 and seemed to be giving him some pointers for him to use in his defence

1) Do you have any specific examples of this? She's been consistently pushing him and has her vote on him and I haven't seen her defend 2.7 so I'm not buying this at all
2) As it's been said before, scum can talk to each other privately so I don't see why she'd be coaching him publicly if she was coaching him

[Skygazer]

I thought I had put this at the bottom of my post last night but it got left off:

UNVOTE: nonny
VOTE: 2.7

For the reasons I gave last night that my strongest scum lean right now is 2.7.

2.7 is looking like the most likely scum to me. I considered transferring my vote to him after his posts started getting a bit desperate after he made the claim, but some had said we should take more time before lynching him,

so I’m not sure whether to move my vote to him now or not

(Bolded for emphasis)

271 absolutely does not look like a post where you're about to vote for 2.7 considering you specifically stated you don't know whether to move your vote to him or not. This looks like an inconsistency with some significance to me.

Also why haven't you answered my questions in 273?

[Skygazer]

@ Trinity: I think that inconsistency indicates that you want to appear cautious yet also want to be on the wagon that's most likely to result in a lynch. I don't see town having motivation to go from being unsure if it's a good idea to place a vote to actually placing that post in the same post.

[Skygazer]

FF's 283 makes sense, a 2.7 lynch would save us a lot of confusion down the road...

[Skygazer]

OK, post #236, where it looks like she is telling him what to do, and also she says she is leaning towards him being null, which seems strange in view of other comments.

236 says she's leaning scum??

[Skygazer]

Oh, I see where she said null, but that just was for a specific post that I thought was indicative of town.

[Skygazer]

Intent to hammer.

If 2.7 is town it'll remove an easy mislynch target later down the road. If they're scum then that'd be nice.

[Skygazer]

Relax, I haven't hammered yet, I just stated that I intend to.

Guerilla, how is quitting going? I'm in the same boat as of today.

[Skygazer]

Yeah this is my second time quitting. I have some patches that the state of Maryland gave me for free from my last time around so hopefully that's enough for the physical cravings, I just really need to work on these psychological cravings. I've been really phlegmy and short of breath lately so it's kind of wild to me that the urges are this strong. I guess I just made it too big of a habit.

[Skygazer]

Yeah bins is not looking too hot with those "weighing in" posts, I hope she posts something more substantial soon.

[Skygazer]

Bins, so far your case on brass has just been for preemptively townreading you which seems pretty weak at this point imo. I stated that I was scumreading brass a couple of days ago but as of right now you sit scummier than he does.

[Skygazer]

That's a good question. I don't think it'll be very productive to speculate about associations until after our first flip, though.

[Skygazer]

I don't think lynching Bins today is the best idea for the record, for reasons I don't want to talk about yet.

[Skygazer]

I have a feeling that's all we'll hear from bins. It's a shame it wasn't really anything new.

Intent to hammer.

[Skygazer]

Don't worry, I'm taking my time on this.

[Skygazer]

But what do you want me to elaborate more on?

I would like to hear more about your brass scumread. Has anything new come to light to enhance that read?

[Skygazer]

I'm willing to wait to see Bins catch up.

[Skygazer]

Sorry if I came across as harsh in 342, I did take the 24 hours thing literally.

[Skygazer]

I'm going to finally VOTE: 2.7

Will weigh in on these brass/bins interactions in twilight or tomorrow.

[Skygazer]

After thinking about it I kind of doubt Bins would blatantly defend 2.7 like that as scum, I feel like Bins would be much more likely to bus and not draw attention to herself?

[Skygazer]

I think I'm backing off on the 2.7 being scum. I know there's some strong pressure from everyone thinking that he is. I'm up for giving him a chance to live tonight and let scum do what they got to do. Hopefully, someone gets's healed and then we have solid proof he's town. He was clunky in the last game and I'm going to go with him being clunky in this game.


This isn't going to be popular but, I think Bins is right. Blowing off a scum read and not wanting to outright defend against it while also being aggressive about it seems scum to me. It's a way to appeal to emotions to scare someone off when you don't want to put an argument out there that could be contradicted in the future. I don't see Town players getting upset or aggressive over a scum read on them. Town typically explains their logic or explains the behavior causing the scum read. Then they move on. They don't out right ignore/claim it's a waste of their time. I agree with Bins that this is scum trying to look casual.

UNVOTE:

I don't like this post. Jumping off the 2.7 wagon reads as trying to stall the game and the way he says "Hopefully, someone gets healed and then we have solid proof he's town" looks like he's trying to set up some wifom for his partner. The reasoning behind the unvote is lackluster, especially considering he stated in 338 that he still sees E as the scummiest. I also don't like that he scumread brass but doesn't even back it up with a vote considering there were like 5 days left in the game at that point. Seems like more stalling. Like his 2.7 read, it's also a departure from his reads earlier in the game.

VOTE: Iceman

[Skygazer]

The times you jumped off the wagon seemed like genuine cold feet/caution, Fish's jump off the wagon was before he had fully read the claim, but Ice's jump off of the wagon just wasn't entirely convincing since he had shown no signs of cold feet prior.

I would definitely like to hear more from Bins, I just don't see her playing like she is as scum at the moment.

[Skygazer]

If you look at the context around my unvote you'll see that I was following what Bins was saying about Brass and was pushing on Brass. I had intentions to keep pushing and then vote for Brass.

I understand the context. The sus part is the drastic change in reads. You went from scumreading 2.7 and townreading brass to suddenly townreading 2.7 and scumreading brass. And now today you're not even pushing on brass anymore, so there's another sudden read shift.

[Skygazer]

Sus of Ice jumping onto Bins after sheeping her brass read.

Ice, what about the flip made you change your mind on brass? What are your thoughts on Trinity at the moment?

[Skygazer]

Okay lol yeah so that was pretty bad.
UNVOTE:

[Skygazer]

I don't see town Bins being so quick to lynch Ice after spending an entire day defending the scummiest player in the game. There's pretty much no new content from her, she's just sheeping and quoting other people's points.

I can see scum Bins dropping the case on brass so suddenly because she doesn't feel she can pull off that lynch at this point. I can also see her killing FF because of his read on her.

[Skygazer]

I still have that one reasoning as to why I think Bins could be town (the one I said I'm holding close to the chest that I'm still not willing to discuss) so I'm holding off on placing her at L-1 until I see more from her and Ice.

[Skygazer]

FWIW I still see a possibility of you being town. I'm far from ready to lynch you (or Ice) this early into Day 2.

[Skygazer]

Nice. Since there was no doc cc we probably aren't in 2A which means nonny couldn't have been roleblocked which means nonny and Bins are conftown.

[Skygazer]

Will respond to questions when I'm not on mobile.

[Skygazer]

Skygazer what's your take on the post discussed in post 215 in hindsight?

Hmm, I could see 98 coming from scum trying to hint at being a PR or from scum frustrated by the lack of presence of their partner in their private chat.

I don't think lynching Bins today is the best idea for the record, for reasons I don't want to talk about yet.

I think it's time to talk about it....

Well as of 439 it was still disadvantageous to town to discuss, but now that Bins is conftown there's a strong chance she'll be nightkilled at this point anyways. In 335 I had realized that Bins could potentially be a power role and it would explain a lot of her behavior. The refusal to lynch a claimed doc reads as a PR trying to keep their protection around. The lurky posting/unwillingness to share townreads could be explained by a desire to not stick out as a good nightkill choice. The shift on her read on brass led me to believe that if I was right then she may have received an investigative result.

Bins, for obvious reasons, don't confirm if I'm right or wrong in that analysis.

[Skygazer]

Jailkeeping a player would mean they wouldn't receive investigative results.

[Skygazer]

1) She could've received a "no result" PM and have been lead to believe that that meant that brass hadn't visited anyone (the remaining power role has to be a tracker)
2) I was using that to support my theory as to why she could potentially be a power role before you claimed and included it to support my original thoughts

[Skygazer]

Realized point 2 after I posted sky, sorry.

No worries! Just clarifying.

[Skygazer]

Reminder to Ice to answer 425 when he has the chance.

[Skygazer]

I am still concerned about Sky being scum. Especially know that we look back and she tried to put info out there like she might be a possible power role. No one pushed her on it because it was D1 and we were pushing on E. Now, it comes out as some kind of weak assumption that Bins was a power role. I don't like the smell of it to be honest.

Ah, I'm glad someone picked up that I was keeping my initial statement vague enough to be interpreted that way. Can you think of any reasons why a town member would want to look like a power role when they're not?

[Skygazer]

The only reason I can think of is to get scum to target them at night instead of an actual power role

Ding ding

[Skygazer]

Yeah tbh this Ice exchange has lead me to believe Trinity is more likely scum over Ice.

[Skygazer]

This suspense tho

Guerilla, how's the quitting going, any luck with that? My roommate graciously gifted me her old vape pen and that's been an enormous help actually.

[Skygazer]

Yeah I was back to smoking again after a grand total of two days. I've never had the best self control.

[Skygazer]

PS feel better soon Trinity

[Skygazer]

Oh thank God. I did not want to end up in Lylo after drawing attention with that PR stuff towards the end.

[Skygazer]

I mean, if I could even slightly imply I may have info that scum doesn't and draw a nightkill then that would've been cool. Unfortunately I went about it weirdly when Ice pointed it out.

[Skygazer]

Those links are for different games

Thanks for modding!!

[Skygazer]

@Trinity: Yeah, I think you got unlucky a bit, I was ready to lynch between Bins and Ice but suddenly Bins was conftown and Ice offered himself up in the lynch pool which basically flipped my read on him. It also would've been interesting to see you try to push for a mislynch on me after my blunder.

[Skygazer]

Being weird about the whole hinting about being a PR to draw a nightkill. Also in hindsight it could be perceived as a grab for towncred or as scum preparing for a claim and abandoning that claim.