Newbie 1934: Tundra (Game Over)

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Post Post #37 (isolation #0) » Wed May 22, 2019 10:39 am

Post by Eggs »

VOTE: Teacher

L-1 folks
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Post Post #38 (isolation #1) » Wed May 22, 2019 10:40 am

Post by Eggs »

Wait, never mind, I can't count.
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Post Post #58 (isolation #2) » Wed May 22, 2019 7:35 pm

Post by Eggs »

Third on the wagon? Who could refuse such a generous offer?

VOTE: Thenavneet
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Post Post #60 (isolation #3) » Wed May 22, 2019 9:21 pm

Post by Eggs »

In post 59, Flavor Leaf wrote: One of these are probably scum, but I'm not sure which.
If you're right, I am sure which.

Oh the other hand, you
would
do that as scum. So I'm not sure you are.

Why is menalque scummy there please? Tone? Content? Motivation? Something else?
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Post Post #67 (isolation #4) » Thu May 23, 2019 5:55 am

Post by Eggs »

I don't expect anyone to believe me, but I actually did miscount that wagon and didn't announce L-1.

I will do my best to vomit town over the thread in the next few days.
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Post Post #75 (isolation #5) » Thu May 23, 2019 7:49 am

Post by Eggs »



On your three main points.

1) that teacher wagon needed the L-1. I laughed at myself. Sue me.
2) I can't handle less than 8 hours sleep. UK.
3) fair cop. I'd be voting me.
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Post Post #102 (isolation #6) » Thu May 23, 2019 9:39 am

Post by Eggs »

FYI is his regular opening post.

is absolutely NAI. Don't agree with a couple of later comments otherwise.

I'm not reading as particularly awkward. I am reading as natural though.

It would be hypocritical of me to have a problem with , and conveniently I don't. I think mafia are more likely to check the count more carefully than town and there's no scum motivation to accidentally declare L-1.

feels marginally town. Haven't background checked anyone yet to know if it's genuine. feels solve-y.

. And no need to , it's

feel natural and unpressured.

made me laugh. Weird wording but not sure what I can read into that.

My gut likes the smell of . I will bribe it with sugar to tell me why.



On previously addressed; sorta-agree; pointlessly agree; agree; disagree - OK the attitude is hard to read but his tone doesn't seem strained at all, feels like he's just being himself so i'm feeling overall positive on him.

Pedit from onwards:

I got nothing on FLs posts individually. Will address.

Bob is going in an interesting direction even if I disagree with most of what he's saying.
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Post Post #104 (isolation #7) » Thu May 23, 2019 10:08 am

Post by Eggs »

Weak leanings:
=/+: elephant, menalque
=: FL, teacher, bob, Nav, voted
=/-: cinnamon

Irrelelephant - I like him forming wagons and analysing responses.

Menalque - Likewise wagons. Pushing discussion and actively participating which I'm reading as town-leaning from a less-experienced player. The bizarre points he added on me are probably more coming from town than scum, it would be bold to manufacture a case in the first day in your first scum game.

Nav, Voted - Reading both similarly. In their favour they doesn't feel forced at all (except that jam sequence but gonna ignore that). Reading tone as town on a post by post basis. (It's only 24h in but) on the other hand ISOs are pretty much empty of actual content, though nav gets some credit for .

Teacher is skipping class today

Uncle Bob - don't agree with what he is saying but I do quite like the fact that he's thinking outside the box. Don't see scum motivation for pushing FL at this point, it's always going to look thin. Waiting for more content here.

Cinnamon - Not much going on in the ISO, i prefer bob's vote on FL to Cinnamon's second vote. Caveats his opinions.

Doesn't feel like as many problems popping up as in my previous games, wouldn't be surprised if one of the SE's is scum here (better hiding, coaching). Cinnamon is not strongly scum.
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Post Post #105 (isolation #8) » Thu May 23, 2019 10:25 am

Post by Eggs »

OK, rein yourself in - it's not doing you any favours.

I'll be more explicit.

Your first point in that post I was referring to was that my first vote was pointless. OK. But teacher deserved to be poked fun at for miscounting. I saw it and immediately thought I had to do it because funny.

Your second point was that I then disappear for 8 hours. between 10pm and 6am UK time. And your explanation for me magically disappearing is 'running away so as to avoid contributing' rather than 'went to sleep', and for reappearing is not 'woke up' but 'saw opportunity to mislynch'. Yeahhh.

As backup for why I jumped on the nav wagon, see my first post in my first game (1930 I think). In my head-vision of how the game works I see piling on as a pro-town thing at this point cos wouldn't it be boring if everyone sat here with one vote going 'hmmm'.

Feel free to keep pushing your third point, failing to say L-1 is genuinely anti-town.
In post 83, Menalque wrote:If we look at his last post, there's also no effort to defend himself beyond "I was sleepy". Plus "I'd be voting me" seems like it could be very plausibly be a double bluff.
As you can see, 'I was sleepy' was not my defence.
In post 91, Menalque wrote:I'd like to add this about Eggs: we can see that he made his first post of the day at 6:40 UK time, while his post here didn't come until after 7:30. Therefore, it's not convincing that he wouldn't have been awake enough by that point to miss that he was putting nav at L-1.
Work. I do it. Guess where I was between 7 am and 7 pm?

And before you accuse me of disappearing again, in about 30 minutes I will be in bed.

Don't mind the push, but keep it realistic please. you ain't helping nobody.


Pedit:
In post 103, Menalque wrote:Everyone has a good reason to check the count carefully, why should it be more likely from mafia?
Fair question. Answer: because mafia, i'd imagine, would generally be more paranoid about putting a foot wrong and being found out, whereas town have the psychological reassurance of a green role pm and are distracted from the paranoia of being mislynched by other considerations like scumhunting.
In post 103, Menalque wrote:Plus there's a difference between miscounting to claim L-1 when it's actually L-2 compared to claiming that it's L-2 when it's actually L-1. Your situation is not comparable to teachers because his misclaim on the L-X was never at risk of causing a super-early lynch.
Don't misrepresent me. My point was PURELY about teacher, you're the only one trying to apply it to me.
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Post Post #108 (isolation #9) » Thu May 23, 2019 10:36 am

Post by Eggs »

In post 102, Eggs wrote: I got nothing on FLs posts individually. Will address.
FL's poking around seems pro-town. However posting style seems to be more towards disconnected arbitrary statements rather than fully explained thought processes so I'm finding it harder to get behind (and probably easier to fake). Part of that is probably assumed knowledge that I don't have, and partly probably he just doesn't care about trying to convince at this point.
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Post Post #131 (isolation #10) » Thu May 23, 2019 7:45 pm

Post by Eggs »

I think 124 reflects well on cinnamon, which makes things harder.

Gonna go with this.

VOTE: Bob
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Post Post #144 (isolation #11) » Fri May 24, 2019 8:28 am

Post by Eggs »

In post 141, thenavneet wrote:Alright I have some time now so I'm gonna try hard for a bit
Good to hear. How's it going?
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Post Post #145 (isolation #12) » Fri May 24, 2019 8:29 am

Post by Eggs »

Oops ninja'ed. Sorry Nav.
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Post Post #146 (isolation #13) » Fri May 24, 2019 8:42 am

Post by Eggs »

In post 134, Uncle Bob wrote: What part of it?
I disagree that keeping options open is bad right now. We're two days in. I'd be more worried if we were up at deadline.

I disagree with your but I've gone over that.

I don't disagree with the caution about groundwork.
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Post Post #147 (isolation #14) » Fri May 24, 2019 8:46 am

Post by Eggs »

VOTE: Voted
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Post Post #166 (isolation #15) » Sat May 25, 2019 1:52 am

Post by Eggs »

In post 161, Menalque wrote:I honestly don’t see why Bob is being scumread.
Things that are bothering me:

and are an interesting concern/weak read. By he's townreading someone purely on the basis of voting FL, so presumably he has a hard read at this point? Otherwise that is a free pass he's just given out.

I've read FL's ISO five times just now and I can't see any indication between and that FL was scumreading Bob rather than Cinnamon. So where did come from? I mean shows he was right, but how did Bob know? Is anyone else seeing FL suggest a switch to Bob in that period?

and are too easy. 'Points are reasonable' is very noncommittal and 'keeping options open' maybe?
In post 134, Uncle Bob wrote:I feel like this should bother you more than it does.
Not explicitly giving any opinion. Instead of saying he's scumreading FL for it he turns it into a point against me, who he isn't voting against. Is he hinting at me + FL scumteam? I don't know because it's far too vague.

My tinfoil hat theory, mainly triggered by is Bob + FL right now, with the bob/FL conversation being planned distancing, but I'm going to need rather more before I try to push it.

Voted, Teacher and Navneet should come play.
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Post Post #212 (isolation #16) » Sun May 26, 2019 10:22 pm

Post by Eggs »

Based on his other games, I'm not sure I can distinguish town voted from scum voted. I think I would be ok with lynch here, not because of a scum-read, but on PoE and inability to potentially read as town in future. Has anyone been in a game with him as town and can sort of see any differences in play?

I'm not sure why scum flavour leaf would strong town read two potential mislynches along with menalque. Seems very anti win condition assuming those reads don't flip too easily. Suggests to me that either his partner is in {me, menalque, cinnamon}, or he's not scum.
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Post Post #213 (isolation #17) » Sun May 26, 2019 10:27 pm

Post by Eggs »

Further thought, also seems abnormal to strong town read one's partner.
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Post Post #215 (isolation #18) » Sun May 26, 2019 10:40 pm

Post by Eggs »

In post 204, Menalque wrote:
Eggs related:
In post 147, Eggs wrote:VOTE: Voted
Where did this come from? If I'm right and voted is scum, then this could be used as evidence to defend yourself from scum charges tomorrow, i.e. it's a pre-emptive bus.
I'm still sheeping at this point for momentum (see you on Navneet, Irrelephant on Bob)
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Post Post #216 (isolation #19) » Sun May 26, 2019 10:42 pm

Post by Eggs »

In post 214, Voted wrote: Not wanting to lynch SEs and active/ eperienced players is my meta. NAI.
Regardless of the merits, I have seen Voted say this elsewhere.

This kind of thing is why i'm struggling to convince myself I have a scum read on him.
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Post Post #230 (isolation #20) » Mon May 27, 2019 8:16 pm

Post by Eggs »

In post 224, Irrelephant11 wrote: 1) I like what I’m seeing from FL and Menalque recently
Cinnamon is moving up in my reads though they’re who I would get suspicious of in lylo if that makes sense

2) Ithink there’s precisely one scum between {Eggs, Voted}, echoing some of Menalque’s case but also just based on my own reads & the fact Eggs is voting Voted

3) Teacher had a couple moments I thought were town indicative but he’s pretty impressive as scum so I won’t say he’s a strong townread rn. (4) I guess the fact that Nav was voted quickly early on might not be the strongest reason to townread him on its own. I don’t remember my read on bob
Numbers added because mobile is horrible for quoting and I don't want to do it 4 times.

1) agreed.
2) don't agree, but reasonable.
3) I don't see town moments from teacher. ISO very fluffy, some questions to a couple of slots that given his playstyle he can probably type in his sleep. One post on particular bothers me which I'll get to. I think you're going a bit easy on him here.
4) agreed, nav still null for me, and has flaked.
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Post Post #231 (isolation #21) » Mon May 27, 2019 8:51 pm

Post by Eggs »

In post 162, teacher wrote:It’s been a few months, but my history with the elephant is that I normally have the same reads. I am always concerned about him cause the man can powerscum with the best of them, but with his activity levels and general slot odds, that’s never a good day one lynch.

I grok what he is saying in Eggs. Lot of self-conscious posting and one slight scummy vote. Here again though, I’m willing to let the active driving of the game take it out of my D1 lynch pool.

I get why Menalque is pushing Eggs. It’s a legitimate case and the most questionable objective fact on this low info day. That said, I strongly differ on reading tone. Indeed, the tone comment is odd from someone who writes

That is my not lynching pool for now, and a response to bob’s 136
I thought I was going to write more than this, but I think I'll keep it short, pretty self-explanatory.

My concern is that for each member of his day 1 no-lynch pool:
- He hasn't said he thinks they're town
- He has said there's something concerning about them
In post 186, Uncle Bob wrote:
In post 146, Eggs wrote:I don't disagree with the caution about groundwork
Then it seems like you agree with the most important thing.
Presumably you're on board with this lynch, Bob?

VOTE: Teacher
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Post Post #235 (isolation #22) » Tue May 28, 2019 1:42 am

Post by Eggs »

In post 233, teacher wrote: FWIW, saying no lynch is saying town lean. If you need that spelled out for you then you need help generally.
Absolutely.

But presented in a way that I'm seeing as giving you more scope to backtrack after day 1.

Possibly fair, possibly not. I'm happy with the vote for now, will see how it develops.
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Post Post #237 (isolation #23) » Tue May 28, 2019 1:59 am

Post by Eggs »

In post 236, teacher wrote:I will backtrack after day one as everyone should. Never be cemented in a position. Always reevaluate based on new info.
Again of course.

But making it easier for yourself. Less justification required.

Justification being one of the things that Mafia have to fabricate but town can just spew from head to page.
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Post Post #296 (isolation #24) » Tue May 28, 2019 6:57 pm

Post by Eggs »

Teacher, quick point to let you think stuff if required, my Navneet vote was l-1 and not l-2 - hence the fact that it's being treated as not serious. Also that's why voted was calling his thing a fake hammer. Substantive response later.
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Post Post #297 (isolation #25) » Tue May 28, 2019 6:58 pm

Post by Eggs »

Hence the fact that it being treated as more serious*
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Post Post #298 (isolation #26) » Tue May 28, 2019 9:26 pm

Post by Eggs »

In post 285, teacher wrote: Why do you think youre being WAY more active and wall-y here than you were there?
I'm not.

counting lines of text on my mobile vs total thread posts:
1930 - 242/351
1934 - 248/297

If you take out which I consider I should not have had to make ( said exactly the same thing but was ignored/misunderstood) it's 204/296 with games being 0.6895 and 0.6891 personal lines per thread post respectively. So the activity change isn't there except for needing to call bs on bs logic.
teacher wrote:That seems to be most of the consensus townblock. Why do you think there are potential mislynches there? Why did you include yourself as a partner -- just the wording seems odd?
Not at that point it wasn't.

Menalque sure.

I don't qualify as townblock with probably the greenest player all over me.

I also didn't see cinnamon as townblock at that point, at where FL states strong read the other positive statements about cinnamon were you at , me un-scum-leaning at and irrelephant sort of townreading and . Before this they were being mentioned as potential scum.

Myself as partner because I'm presenting an argument that I want people to be able to follow
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Post Post #301 (isolation #27) » Tue May 28, 2019 9:48 pm

Post by Eggs »

In post 289, teacher wrote:Whole board reads:
Nav - yes. Not sure about the eggs focus, that's kinda necessary when you vote, unvote, remind mod about unvote. But rest of points re. wagon replacement etc. agree completely.
Cinnamon - good early spot, i'm catching up with this
Voted/Bob - I'm flipped on your position. I read more evasion and discontent at being challenged in bob than voted, and more weirdness and odd logic in voted than bob.

I think it's tempting to lay into Voted for inconsistencies and non-sequiturs but poor logic is not the same as being scum. Or the same as not being scum.

I have absolutely no idea whether he is scum and I'm not sure I could ever figure it out. Is the best strategy to kill/clear him via PoE or just policy lynch?
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Post Post #302 (isolation #28) » Tue May 28, 2019 9:54 pm

Post by Eggs »

In post 289, teacher wrote: had a weird self-consciousness about being the third on the wagon and sheeping. The readslist in felt oddly townsided
Unstated L-1

Absolutely townsided, this is why I suggested an SE hiding in null and/or coaching.
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Post Post #306 (isolation #29) » Wed May 29, 2019 5:06 am

Post by Eggs »

That was fourth not third, that's the point I'm trying to make.
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Post Post #307 (isolation #30) » Wed May 29, 2019 5:10 am

Post by Eggs »

In post 24, Voted wrote:VOTE: thenavneet
Still being scum in every game?
In post 25, Irrelephant11 wrote:VOTE: thenavneet
In post 41, Menalque wrote: That said, I appreciate that it was very early on and is probably NAI. Plus, I’m assuming that we’re unlikely to get a lot more out of you from pressuring, so why not: VOTE: thenavneet
In post 58, Eggs wrote:Third on the wagon? Who could refuse such a generous offer?
VOTE: Thenavneet
In post 61, Voted wrote:thenavneet is in L-2, right? Lets put him on L-1 so we get from RVS
VOTE: thenavneet
In post 65, Ausuka wrote:
Votecount 1.2
thenavneet (4) - Voted, Irrelephant11, Menalque, Eggs
(L-1)

Irrelephant11 (2) - teacher, Uncle Bob
Menalque (1) - Cinnamon

Not Voting (2) - Flavor Leaf, thenavneet
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Post Post #310 (isolation #31) » Wed May 29, 2019 5:58 am

Post by Eggs »

Ah, gotcha.

You got 5 mins to talk about Bob? Is there anything in particular steering you towards mislynch or is it a tone thing/feeling? Any particular point stand out?
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Post Post #311 (isolation #32) » Wed May 29, 2019 6:43 am

Post by Eggs »

Anyone else want to talk for a while? I need a distraction from work.
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Post Post #313 (isolation #33) » Wed May 29, 2019 7:29 am

Post by Eggs »

How about cinnamon? Going into a tunnel, will be more specific afterwards.
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Post Post #314 (isolation #34) » Wed May 29, 2019 7:38 am

Post by Eggs »

Do you think it's a problem in 167 that he's going after SEs? Mistake or scum motivation? What do you think of the secondg half of that post?
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Post Post #318 (isolation #35) » Wed May 29, 2019 8:17 am

Post by Eggs »

1) Agreed, I quite liked the spirit of enquiry there - for reference, yes, this was intentionally a leading question, was trying to gauge if you were going to go along with stuff.
2) regardless of whether you agree, do you think this comes from scum or town?

Any of cinnamon's posts stick out to you?
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Post Post #328 (isolation #36) » Wed May 29, 2019 8:40 am

Post by Eggs »

You were looking for a reaction from me?

Meh. Couldn't care less really, fake vote. Teacher isn't getting lynched today unless he posts a Mafia thread thread post in this thread by mistake.

No idea what you're trying to achieve but I'd assumed it wouldn't be helped by me sticking my oar in.
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Post Post #357 (isolation #37) » Wed May 29, 2019 9:56 pm

Post by Eggs »

Menalque, can you give me your thoughts about Bob please, you don't seem to have really addressed your reads on him at all, and you only seem to be suggesting the nav slot for lynch consideration, while Bob I think was also low contribution and is due for replacement.
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Post Post #358 (isolation #38) » Wed May 29, 2019 9:57 pm

Post by Eggs »

Welcome Raya. Who are you planning to lynch today?
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Post Post #376 (isolation #39) » Thu May 30, 2019 7:09 am

Post by Eggs »

@mod: is Bob up for replacement?
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Post Post #414 (isolation #40) » Fri May 31, 2019 7:25 am

Post by Eggs »

In post 412, Baezu wrote:
Didn’t like how eggs was “playing along” with the L-1 gags...seems too tryhard. Also, I didn’t get nearly enough townspew from eggs as I was hoping for
Dude this was the first L-1 gag in the thread. You want a better entry? Nah.

Why the misrep?
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Post Post #415 (isolation #41) » Fri May 31, 2019 7:35 am

Post by Eggs »

VOTE: baezu
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Post Post #416 (isolation #42) » Fri May 31, 2019 7:56 am

Post by Eggs »

In post 413, Baezu wrote:
In post 400, Flavor Leaf wrote:Baezu coming into Bob slot and town reading me might be TMI, but I can see it happening with her as town, and it seem a like it’s jjst real obvious pocketing if she is scum, so that makes me town read her, which also makes me scum read her because it makes me town read her, however I’m town reading her because I don’t think she should be lynched because I town read her which makes me think she might be scum, but she could be town.


Does this make sense?
Hahaha

You’re overthinking this, Leaf
Hahaha

We all got that this was a joke no need to try so hard to fit in
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Post Post #417 (isolation #43) » Fri May 31, 2019 8:01 am

Post by Eggs »

Phrased as a joke to elicit amusement. I'm sure the underlying meaning is intended to be conveyed.

Fun fact. Been drinking for 14 hours. Ask me anything. Except about the Bob/baezu slot, thats scum.
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Post Post #521 (isolation #44) » Sat Jun 01, 2019 10:59 am

Post by Eggs »

I'm wondering if I'll understand all of this better in the morning.

I'm thinking probably not. Will try though.
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Post Post #600 (isolation #45) » Sat Jun 01, 2019 7:31 pm

Post by Eggs »

In post 559, teacher wrote: You moved off me after this, but of everything I wanted to say Friday, this post was the most jarring. You were voting me and pushing me. Why the shift?
My case on you was massively stretched obviously. I wanted to see Bob's reaction to me putting the argument he had put against FL earlier. There were a few reasons.

Test Bob as he was still my #1 lynch
Test Bob+teacher and FLs post suggesting that as the team is what prompted me to do it at that point
Pressure you into posting more
And actually I didn't have a great gut-read on you, you were probably #3 after Bob and Nav at that point

I switched because I had everything I was going to get from the above - Bob flaked so no result, you posted more. then bobslot comes back.

I'm not going to defend my reasoning in my posts on Friday. Bobslot deserved a much more careful read through than I gave it at that point.
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Post Post #601 (isolation #46) » Sun Jun 02, 2019 2:15 am

Post by Eggs »

Still working through this and my head still hurts.

Preliminary thought - scum!FL would have an excellent win chance if he convinced town that {irrelephant/teacher} contained a scum, in the absence of power roles that seems like it would end the game?
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Post Post #699 (isolation #47) » Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:08 am

Post by Eggs »

Well I am putting this at L-1.

I don't follow the cinnamon teacher FL irrelephant conversation at all. It all sort of makes sense at face value but apparently they all don't think so about each others posts.

What I do know is that there were 2 replacements in this slot and nothing of particular value from either. On PoE I think menalque is town, cinnamon seems town even if irrelephant has something on him I can't tell if it's accurate or not, voted is massive mislynch bait but the only indications on him are voting traps which he seems to have evaded, leaves me with hopefully at least one scum in baezu/pine and hopefully no more than one in the SE slots which I am hoping someone else will figure out for me because I just don't know.

I'm not sure why this lynch has been derailed, is anyone actually Townreading this slot?
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Post Post #700 (isolation #48) » Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:11 am

Post by Eggs »

Wait no. It's not even l-2.

I think it was 2, then cinnamon dropped off, then voted went on. So that makes me the third vote? Please double check my numbers before voting.

VOTE: pine
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Post Post #754 (isolation #49) » Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:02 pm

Post by Eggs »

I'm tying Raya to FL in my head. He's done more than anyone else to distract from this lynch, from the early day 'town who got run up' to the current bickering and teacher irrelephant wagons.
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Post Post #758 (isolation #50) » Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:29 pm

Post by Eggs »

In post 703, Pine wrote:...a flaking Newbie is NAI.
Snipped quote obviously.

Ran the numbers so I can call bs on this.

Unfortunately the numbers don't agree. In games 1901 to 1930:

0.60 replacements per newbie scum
0.56 replacements per newbie town
0.40 replacements per SE scum (but 6/15 is a small sample)
0.14 replacements per SE town

NAI seems about right. If you go back only to 1903 not 1901 the newbie numbers flip. Well within variance.

There goes 80% of my case.

UNVOTE:
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Post Post #759 (isolation #51) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 12:14 am

Post by Eggs »



VOTE: Baezu
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Post Post #760 (isolation #52) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:13 am

Post by Eggs »

Ugh I'm not liking this at all. Very conscious time is pressing but I'm not really satisfied with the pine lynch.

I think he could pretty much only be scum with either FL or Bob.

Cinnamon got pushed by Raya and is a (qualified) town read from pine
Voted and teacher are solidly on this lynch
Irrelephant is scum by pine and strong town by Raya.

And in either case I'm happy with the Bob lynch. Pine+FL is a worry true, but that's a pretty specific case.
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Post Post #761 (isolation #53) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:15 am

Post by Eggs »

Sorry, Baezu. I mean you not Bob. Too much hurrying.
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Post Post #762 (isolation #54) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:20 am

Post by Eggs »

Missed menalque there but I'm town-reading him.
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Post Post #765 (isolation #55) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:38 am

Post by Eggs »

Absolutely true about category errors. However I'm struggling to find such errors that won't be flat across newb!scum and newb!town.

The fact that you come back with anecdote doesn't help. I'm kinda ignoring the second paragraph unless you can nail down the situations where town is more likely to flake to make a reasonable hypothesis that there are times when scum are more likely to flake.

Also nav wasn't really scumread. He was kinda consensus town at that point. Also Nav has tended to flake more on his town games, came across a couple in my trawl but he didn't flake as scum unless I missed one.

Also if Baezu is the same argument as Navneet and has gone under the radar isn't that an indication that he is more likely to be being kept out of the firing line?

Also I didn't like Bob's tone and pine pinged me town on voted's thing.
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Post Post #770 (isolation #56) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:14 am

Post by Eggs »

Agreed on need to do better analysis. But also counting on a flat e.g. 30% on both town and scum for genuine life/forget site replace-outs won't affect the numbers. Since I'm not doing more work and nobody is proposing a time when town flake more than scum, data would suggest there is no time when scum flake significantly more than town.
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Post Post #771 (isolation #57) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:15 am

Post by Eggs »

I'm with you on the greeting tells. That was part of my remaining 20%. But from pine? Is that still a newb scum tell?
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Post Post #774 (isolation #58) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:22 am

Post by Eggs »

In post 766, teacher wrote:Nav was not consensus town, as you can tell from the wagon, but I think that’s also pretty irrelevant.
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Post Post #775 (isolation #59) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:23 am

Post by Eggs »

In post 773, teacher wrote:
In post 770, Eggs wrote:But also counting on a flat e.g. 30% on both town and scum for genuine life/forget site replace-outs won't affect the numbers.
This is error. Flat discount doesn’t make sense when 78% of slots are town. Town replaceouts should be discounted more heavily than scum. But like I said I will do the actual coding and share dataset and results tonight.
Yes it does. Have divided flakes by players. If 30% of players don't pick up pm then numbers become 0.3 and 0.26. still basically the same and within variance.

Actual analysis would be very interesting.
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Post Post #776 (isolation #60) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:34 am

Post by Eggs »

True point on Raya's post. That was the low point for the slot.

I don't see teacher arguing like this as scum.

Alright. Given day position and to be fair teacher is right about lack of enlightenment if bob flips green VOTE: pine

THIS IS L-1 AGAIN
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Post Post #779 (isolation #61) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:56 am

Post by Eggs »

Interesting, so town players are more likely to replace out before posting. Weird. Will look later in the week when I have time.
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Post Post #797 (isolation #62) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:46 am

Post by Eggs »

Voted analysis should be 30 SE and 240 newb replacements in para 1, total 270. Then 60/200 = 210/700 = 30%
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Post Post #811 (isolation #63) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:06 am

Post by Eggs »

I don't expect I'll be moving my vote at this point. I think there's sufficient chance of a scum flip and I'd rather not get more claims out there than necessary.

Subject to being convinced otherwise.
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Post Post #813 (isolation #64) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:21 am

Post by Eggs »

scum vs scum
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Post Post #853 (isolation #65) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:47 pm

Post by Eggs »

Not being clear about your role D1 is NAI at worst. Not sure what your point is there voted.
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Post Post #857 (isolation #66) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:17 pm

Post by Eggs »

I would quite like Irrelephant to explain why Pine being town makes FL scum. Seems backwards to me.
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Post Post #859 (isolation #67) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:37 pm

Post by Eggs »

In post 732, teacher wrote:I like lynching Raya, because I think a green flip clears Voted pretty hardcore given that the same wagon was on him, and definitely confirms scum in [Cinnamon/Elephant/me]. That is incredibly helpful to me because Im town on both of them right now, and would be forced to reexamine. It would also vault Flavor way up in my reads, both for pushing so hard and also for his theory being right. On the other hand, a red flip I think essentially clears all of Voted, Cinnamon, Irrelephant, and me, creating an incredibly strong townblock to win the game.
To be honest if pine flips green and Teacher doesn't full-on go for Irrelephant's head tomorrow (or fades later on and compromises onto someone else), then I'm worried.

If pine flips red this conversation is moot.
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Post Post #881 (isolation #68) » Fri Jun 07, 2019 9:06 am

Post by Eggs »

I think we got a decent Poe here. Irrelephant was a hard bus so probably not, I would have been off pine if teacher hadn't persuaded me so probably not him, I don't like voted for scum partner because I haven't looked but everyone seems to be saying it. We can lynch Baezu, FL and cinnamon in any order, probably cinnamon last though (or me instead fypov) and I'd be confident of finding the partner.

FL was hard distracting yesterday so that's my vote but I think we have this regardless.

Will look properly tomorrow when I'm not drunk.

If Baezu flips scum I am going to be sad about mechanical scumreading being a thing.

On second thoughts my god 877 is proper setting up a Baezu win if FL flips green, I'm actually reconsidering first vote.
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Post Post #882 (isolation #69) » Fri Jun 07, 2019 9:06 am

Post by Eggs »

In post 880, Irrelephant11 wrote:What “early claim”?
The one where he claims vt
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Post Post #884 (isolation #70) » Fri Jun 07, 2019 9:15 am

Post by Eggs »

In post 876, Flavor Leaf wrote:Well, yeah. I’m incriminated hard.

I’m VT. I was wrong. Yeah.

Menalque was the main person other than Baezu who was taking what I had to say into consideration, so yeah, that makes sense.
Do you think townreading you is tmi at this point or are you redeemable?
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Post Post #899 (isolation #71) » Fri Jun 07, 2019 9:44 am

Post by Eggs »

I would hope investigative went for a clear on some midrange slot for endgame poe and to avoid having to reveal on the inevitable FL push.
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Post Post #901 (isolation #72) » Fri Jun 07, 2019 9:48 am

Post by Eggs »

I do not have an inno on flavor
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Post Post #972 (isolation #73) » Fri Jun 07, 2019 9:04 pm

Post by Eggs »

VOTE: flavor

Yeah still the number one lynch here.

Do not let him survive. If he gets to lylo he has to go, don't let him smooth talk you out of it.

He's also vt so we don't have to push Baezu for role and endanger mechanical end.
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Post Post #996 (isolation #74) » Sat Jun 08, 2019 7:58 pm

Post by Eggs »

I don't know what your read on me is other than I wasnt one of the first two on the wagon and I've been on a vanity wagon for most of the day. I don't think I need to post 699 as scum after an experienced player replaces in with a chance at getting off.

Unless your argument is that it's looking too Townie in which case sucks to be me.

Or is it that I'm pushing the slot that's pretty incriminated? In which case guilty as charged.

To be honest I don't really have the motivation to defend myself at this point, as long as Baezu or you is lynched today, just need one more inno and it's done.
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Post Post #1028 (isolation #75) » Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:50 am

Post by Eggs »

I'm vt
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Post Post #1038 (isolation #76) » Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:58 am

Post by Eggs »

Playing keyflower rn, will pay attention later
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Post Post #1059 (isolation #77) » Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:00 am

Post by Eggs »

Better to wait. Don't rush. Are we absolutely sure?

Cop tracker?

I haven't read, probably I'm wrong, but no hurry here.
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Post Post #1067 (isolation #78) » Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:22 am

Post by Eggs »

VOTE: Baezu

Had a chance to read. Now bed. Good night.
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Post Post #1070 (isolation #79) » Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:23 am

Post by Eggs »

Yes. Voted only pr claim, clears on me and cinnamon.
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Post Post #1085 (isolation #80) » Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:02 pm

Post by Eggs »

Thanks folks and thanks Asuka. Interesting game.
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Post Post #1087 (isolation #81) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:13 am

Post by Eggs »

I'm sorry for being boneheaded day 2 FL, I was of the opinion that you were as likely as Baezu to be scum, but also worried that you pride yourself on your ability to talk your way out of lynches. And at that point I can't really have a sensible conversation because I think it is likely I would be unable to differentiate town you and scum you trying to get out of a lynch.

Plus I had a lynch pool of two point five and that townread of Baezu had me stumped on where else to go.
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Post Post #1088 (isolation #82) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:14 am

Post by Eggs »

Thanks to your signature for the warning not to trust!

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