Newbie 1934: Tundra (Game Over)
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Eggs
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Eggs Goon
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If you're right, I am sure which.In post 59, Flavor Leaf wrote: One of these are probably scum, but I'm not sure which.
Oh the other hand, youwoulddo that as scum. So I'm not sure you are.
Why is menalque scummy there please? Tone? Content? Motivation? Something else?-
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Eggs Goon
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FYI #11 is his regular opening post.
#12 is absolutely NAI. Don't agree with a couple of later comments otherwise.
I'm not reading #23 as particularly awkward. I am reading #24 as natural though.
It would be hypocritical of me to have a problem with #28, and conveniently I don't. I think mafia are more likely to check the count more carefully than town and there's no scum motivation to accidentally declare L-1.
Confusion feels marginally town. Haven't background checked anyone yet to know if it's genuine. #40 feels solve-y.
Make up your mind. And no need to beat the horse, it's dead
#44-47 feel natural and unpressured.
#49 made me laugh. Weird wording but not sure what I can read into that.
My gut likes the smell of #61-#62. I will bribe it with sugar to tell me why.
Sane
On #70 previously addressed; sorta-agree; pointlessly agree; agree; disagree - OK the attitude is hard to read but his tone doesn't seem strained at all, feels like he's just being himself so i'm feeling overall positive on him.
Pedit from #76 onwards:
I got nothing on FLs posts individually. Will address.
Bob is going in an interesting direction even if I disagree with most of what he's saying.-
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Eggs Goon
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Weak leanings:
=/+: elephant, menalque
=: FL, teacher, bob, Nav, voted
=/-: cinnamon
Irrelelephant - I like him forming wagons and analysing responses.
Menalque - Likewise wagons. Pushing discussion and actively participating which I'm reading as town-leaning from a less-experienced player. The bizarre points he added on me are probably more coming from town than scum, it would be bold to manufacture a case in the first day in your first scum game.
Nav, Voted - Reading both similarly. In their favour they doesn't feel forced at all (except that jam sequence but gonna ignore that). Reading tone as town on a post by post basis. (It's only 24h in but) on the other hand ISOs are pretty much empty of actual content, though nav gets some credit for #68.
Teacher is skipping class today
Uncle Bob - don't agree with what he is saying but I do quite like the fact that he's thinking outside the box. Don't see scum motivation for pushing FL at this point, it's always going to look thin. Waiting for more content here.
Cinnamon - Not much going on in the ISO, i prefer bob's vote on FL to Cinnamon's second vote. Caveats his opinions.
Doesn't feel like as many problems popping up as in my previous games, wouldn't be surprised if one of the SE's is scum here (better hiding, coaching). Cinnamon is not strongly scum.-
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Eggs Goon
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OK, rein yourself in - it's not doing you any favours.
I'll be more explicit.
Your first point in that post I was referring to was that my first vote was pointless. OK. But teacher deserved to be poked fun at for miscounting. I saw it and immediately thought I had to do it because funny.
Your second point was that I then disappear for 8 hours. between 10pm and 6am UK time. And your explanation for me magically disappearing is 'running away so as to avoid contributing' rather than 'went to sleep', and for reappearing is not 'woke up' but 'saw opportunity to mislynch'. Yeahhh.
As backup for why I jumped on the nav wagon, see my first post in my first game (1930 I think). In my head-vision of how the game works I see piling on as a pro-town thing at this point cos wouldn't it be boring if everyone sat here with one vote going 'hmmm'.
Feel free to keep pushing your third point, failing to say L-1 is genuinely anti-town.
As you can see, 'I was sleepy' was not my defence.In post 83, Menalque wrote:If we look at his last post, there's also no effort to defend himself beyond "I was sleepy". Plus "I'd be voting me" seems like it could be very plausibly be a double bluff.
Work. I do it. Guess where I was between 7 am and 7 pm?In post 91, Menalque wrote:I'd like to add this about Eggs: we can see that he made his first post of the day at 6:40 UK time, while his post here didn't come until after 7:30. Therefore, it's not convincing that he wouldn't have been awake enough by that point to miss that he was putting nav at L-1.
And before you accuse me of disappearing again, in about 30 minutes I will be in bed.
Don't mind the push, but keep it realistic please. you ain't helping nobody.
Pedit:
Fair question. Answer: because mafia, i'd imagine, would generally be more paranoid about putting a foot wrong and being found out, whereas town have the psychological reassurance of a green role pm and are distracted from the paranoia of being mislynched by other considerations like scumhunting.In post 103, Menalque wrote:Everyone has a good reason to check the count carefully, why should it be more likely from mafia?
Don't misrepresent me. My point was PURELY about teacher, you're the only one trying to apply it to me.In post 103, Menalque wrote:Plus there's a difference between miscounting to claim L-1 when it's actually L-2 compared to claiming that it's L-2 when it's actually L-1. Your situation is not comparable to teachers because his misclaim on the L-X was never at risk of causing a super-early lynch.-
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Eggs Goon
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FL's poking around seems pro-town. However posting style seems to be more towards disconnected arbitrary statements rather than fully explained thought processes so I'm finding it harder to get behind (and probably easier to fake). Part of that is probably assumed knowledge that I don't have, and partly probably he just doesn't care about trying to convince at this point.In post 102, Eggs wrote: I got nothing on FLs posts individually. Will address.-
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Good to hear. How's it going?In post 141, thenavneet wrote:Alright I have some time now so I'm gonna try hard for a bit-
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I disagree that keeping options open is bad right now. We're two days in. I'd be more worried if we were up at deadline.In post 134, Uncle Bob wrote: What part of it?
I disagree with your #86 but I've gone over that.
I don't disagree with the caution about groundwork.-
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Things that are bothering me:In post 161, Menalque wrote:I honestly don’t see why Bob is being scumread.
77 and 84 are an interesting concern/weak read. By 136 he's townreading someone purely on the basis of voting FL, so presumably he has a hard read at this point? Otherwise that is a free pass he's just given out.
I've read FL's ISO five times just now and I can't see any indication between 97 and 128 that FL was scumreading Bob rather than Cinnamon. So where did 135 come from? I mean 142 shows he was right, but how did Bob know? Is anyone else seeing FL suggest a switch to Bob in that period?
86 and 89 are too easy. 'Points are reasonable' is very noncommittal and 'keeping options open' maybe?
Not explicitly giving any opinion. Instead of saying he's scumreading FL for it he turns it into a point against me, who he isn't voting against. Is he hinting at me + FL scumteam? I don't know because it's far too vague.In post 134, Uncle Bob wrote:I feel like this should bother you more than it does.
My tinfoil hat theory, mainly triggered by 135 is Bob + FL right now, with the bob/FL conversation being planned distancing, but I'm going to need rather more before I try to push it.
Voted, Teacher and Navneet should come play.-
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Eggs Goon
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Based on his other games, I'm not sure I can distinguish town voted from scum voted. I think I would be ok with lynch here, not because of a scum-read, but on PoE and inability to potentially read as town in future. Has anyone been in a game with him as town and can sort of see any differences in play?
I'm not sure why scum flavour leaf would strong town read two potential mislynches along with menalque. Seems very anti win condition assuming those reads don't flip too easily. Suggests to me that either his partner is in {me, menalque, cinnamon}, or he's not scum.-
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Eggs Goon
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I'm still sheeping at this point for momentum (see you on Navneet, Irrelephant on Bob)In post 204, Menalque wrote:Eggs related:Where did this come from? If I'm right and voted is scum, then this could be used as evidence to defend yourself from scum charges tomorrow, i.e. it's a pre-emptive bus.
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Regardless of the merits, I have seen Voted say this elsewhere.In post 214, Voted wrote: Not wanting to lynch SEs and active/ eperienced players is my meta. NAI.
This kind of thing is why i'm struggling to convince myself I have a scum read on him.-
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Numbers added because mobile is horrible for quoting and I don't want to do it 4 times.In post 224, Irrelephant11 wrote: 1) I like what I’m seeing from FL and Menalque recently
Cinnamon is moving up in my reads though they’re who I would get suspicious of in lylo if that makes sense
2) Ithink there’s precisely one scum between {Eggs, Voted}, echoing some of Menalque’s case but also just based on my own reads & the fact Eggs is voting Voted
3) Teacher had a couple moments I thought were town indicative but he’s pretty impressive as scum so I won’t say he’s a strong townread rn. (4) I guess the fact that Nav was voted quickly early on might not be the strongest reason to townread him on its own. I don’t remember my read on bob
1) agreed.
2) don't agree, but reasonable.
3) I don't see town moments from teacher. ISO very fluffy, some questions to a couple of slots that given his playstyle he can probably type in his sleep. One post on particular bothers me which I'll get to. I think you're going a bit easy on him here.
4) agreed, nav still null for me, and has flaked.-
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I thought I was going to write more than this, but I think I'll keep it short, pretty self-explanatory.In post 162, teacher wrote:It’s been a few months, but my history with the elephant is that I normally have the same reads. I am always concerned about him cause the man can powerscum with the best of them, but with his activity levels and general slot odds, that’s never a good day one lynch.
I grok what he is saying in Eggs. Lot of self-conscious posting and one slight scummy vote. Here again though, I’m willing to let the active driving of the game take it out of my D1 lynch pool.
I get why Menalque is pushing Eggs. It’s a legitimate case and the most questionable objective fact on this low info day. That said, I strongly differ on reading tone. Indeed, the tone comment is odd from someone who writes 20
That is my not lynching pool for now, and a response to bob’s 136
My concern is that for each member of his day 1 no-lynch pool:
- He hasn't said he thinks they're town
- He has said there's something concerning about them
Presumably you're on board with this lynch, Bob?In post 186, Uncle Bob wrote:
Then it seems like you agree with the most important thing.In post 146, Eggs wrote:I don't disagree with the caution about groundwork
VOTE: Teacher-
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Absolutely.In post 233, teacher wrote: FWIW, saying no lynch is saying town lean. If you need that spelled out for you then you need help generally.
But presented in a way that I'm seeing as giving you more scope to backtrack after day 1.
Possibly fair, possibly not. I'm happy with the vote for now, will see how it develops.-
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Again of course.In post 236, teacher wrote:I will backtrack after day one as everyone should. Never be cemented in a position. Always reevaluate based on new info.
But making it easier for yourself. Less justification required.
Justification being one of the things that Mafia have to fabricate but town can just spew from head to page.-
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Eggs Goon
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I'm not.In post 285, teacher wrote: Why do you think youre being WAY more active and wall-y here than you were there?
counting lines of text on my mobile vs total thread posts:
1930 - 242/351
1934 - 248/297
If you take out 105 which I consider I should not have had to make (75 said exactly the same thing but was ignored/misunderstood) it's 204/296 with games being 0.6895 and 0.6891 personal lines per thread post respectively. So the activity change isn't there except for needing to call bs on bs logic.
Not at that point it wasn't.teacher wrote:That seems to be most of the consensus townblock. Why do you think there are potential mislynches there? Why did you include yourself as a partner -- just the wording seems odd?
Menalque sure.
I don't qualify as townblock with probably the greenest player all over me.
I also didn't see cinnamon as townblock at that point, at 189 where FL states strong read the other positive statements about cinnamon were you at 121, me un-scum-leaning at 124 and irrelephant sort of townreading 168 and 169. Before this they were being mentioned as potential scum.
Myself as partner because I'm presenting an argument that I want people to be able to follow-
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Eggs Goon
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Nav - yes. Not sure about the eggs focus, that's kinda necessary when you vote, unvote, remind mod about unvote. But rest of points re. wagon replacement etc. agree completely.In post 289, teacher wrote:Whole board reads:
Cinnamon - good early spot, i'm catching up with this
Voted/Bob - I'm flipped on your position. I read more evasion and discontent at being challenged in bob than voted, and more weirdness and odd logic in voted than bob.
I think it's tempting to lay into Voted for inconsistencies and non-sequiturs but poor logic is not the same as being scum. Or the same as not being scum.
I have absolutely no idea whether he is scum and I'm not sure I could ever figure it out. Is the best strategy to kill/clear him via PoE or just policy lynch?-
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Unstated L-1In post 289, teacher wrote: had a weird self-consciousness about being the third on the wagon and sheeping. The readslist in 102 felt oddly townsided
Absolutely townsided, this is why I suggested an SE hiding in null and/or coaching.-
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In post 41, Menalque wrote: That said, I appreciate that it was very early on and is probably NAI. Plus, I’m assuming that we’re unlikely to get a lot more out of you from pressuring, so why not: VOTE: thenavneetIn post 61, Voted wrote:thenavneet is in L-2, right? Lets put him on L-1 so we get from RVS
VOTE: thenavneetIn post 65, Ausuka wrote:-
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1) Agreed, I quite liked the spirit of enquiry there - for reference, yes, this was intentionally a leading question, was trying to gauge if you were going to go along with stuff.
2) regardless of whether you agree, do you think this comes from scum or town?
Any of cinnamon's posts stick out to you?-
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Dude this was the first L-1 gag in the thread. You want a better entry? Nah.In post 412, Baezu wrote:
Didn’t like how eggs was “playing along” with the L-1 gags...seems too tryhard. Also, I didn’t get nearly enough townspew from eggs as I was hoping for
Why the misrep?-
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HahahaIn post 413, Baezu wrote:
HahahaIn post 400, Flavor Leaf wrote:Baezu coming into Bob slot and town reading me might be TMI, but I can see it happening with her as town, and it seem a like it’s jjst real obvious pocketing if she is scum, so that makes me town read her, which also makes me scum read her because it makes me town read her, however I’m town reading her because I don’t think she should be lynched because I town read her which makes me think she might be scum, but she could be town.
Does this make sense?
You’re overthinking this, Leaf
We all got that this was a joke no need to try so hard to fit in-
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Eggs Goon
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My case on you was massively stretched obviously. I wanted to see Bob's reaction to me putting the argument he had put against FL earlier. There were a few reasons.In post 559, teacher wrote: You moved off me after this, but of everything I wanted to say Friday, this post was the most jarring. You were voting me and pushing me. Why the shift?
Test Bob as he was still my #1 lynch
Test Bob+teacher and FLs post suggesting that as the team is what prompted me to do it at that point
Pressure you into posting more
And actually I didn't have a great gut-read on you, you were probably #3 after Bob and Nav at that point
I switched because I had everything I was going to get from the above - Bob flaked so no result, you posted more. then bobslot comes back.
I'm not going to defend my reasoning in my posts on Friday. Bobslot deserved a much more careful read through than I gave it at that point.-
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Well I am putting this at L-1.
I don't follow the cinnamon teacher FL irrelephant conversation at all. It all sort of makes sense at face value but apparently they all don't think so about each others posts.
What I do know is that there were 2 replacements in this slot and nothing of particular value from either. On PoE I think menalque is town, cinnamon seems town even if irrelephant has something on him I can't tell if it's accurate or not, voted is massive mislynch bait but the only indications on him are voting traps which he seems to have evaded, leaves me with hopefully at least one scum in baezu/pine and hopefully no more than one in the SE slots which I am hoping someone else will figure out for me because I just don't know.
I'm not sure why this lynch has been derailed, is anyone actually Townreading this slot?-
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Snipped quote obviously.In post 703, Pine wrote:...a flaking Newbie is NAI.
Ran the numbers so I can call bs on this.
Unfortunately the numbers don't agree. In games 1901 to 1930:
0.60 replacements per newbie scum
0.56 replacements per newbie town
0.40 replacements per SE scum (but 6/15 is a small sample)
0.14 replacements per SE town
NAI seems about right. If you go back only to 1903 not 1901 the newbie numbers flip. Well within variance.
There goes 80% of my case.
UNVOTE:-
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Ugh I'm not liking this at all. Very conscious time is pressing but I'm not really satisfied with the pine lynch.
I think he could pretty much only be scum with either FL or Bob.
Cinnamon got pushed by Raya and is a (qualified) town read from pine
Voted and teacher are solidly on this lynch
Irrelephant is scum by pine and strong town by Raya.
And in either case I'm happy with the Bob lynch. Pine+FL is a worry true, but that's a pretty specific case.-
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Absolutely true about category errors. However I'm struggling to find such errors that won't be flat across newb!scum and newb!town.
The fact that you come back with anecdote doesn't help. I'm kinda ignoring the second paragraph unless you can nail down the situations where town is more likely to flake to make a reasonable hypothesis that there are times when scum are more likely to flake.
Also nav wasn't really scumread. He was kinda consensus town at that point. Also Nav has tended to flake more on his town games, came across a couple in my trawl but he didn't flake as scum unless I missed one.
Also if Baezu is the same argument as Navneet and has gone under the radar isn't that an indication that he is more likely to be being kept out of the firing line?
Also I didn't like Bob's tone and pine pinged me town on voted's thing.-
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Agreed on need to do better analysis. But also counting on a flat e.g. 30% on both town and scum for genuine life/forget site replace-outs won't affect the numbers. Since I'm not doing more work and nobody is proposing a time when town flake more than scum, data would suggest there is no time when scum flake significantly more than town.-
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Yes it does. Have divided flakes by players. If 30% of players don't pick up pm then numbers become 0.3 and 0.26. still basically the same and within variance.In post 773, teacher wrote:
This is error. Flat discount doesn’t make sense when 78% of slots are town. Town replaceouts should be discounted more heavily than scum. But like I said I will do the actual coding and share dataset and results tonight.In post 770, Eggs wrote:But also counting on a flat e.g. 30% on both town and scum for genuine life/forget site replace-outs won't affect the numbers.
Actual analysis would be very interesting.-
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