Newbie 2038: Elements [Game Over]

[safebet222]

Hiya... nice to be here... I think. I have to get the kids to bed before posting a bunch but I'll start with one answer...

My only Mafia experience is here on MS... a couple of games a few years ago. So pretty much a complete newbie.

Once I get the house settled down a bit, I'll be back...

[safebet222]

Ok... so here are some initial thoughts...

Page 1

- RVS was RVS. I don't think anyone was being serious getting on 72 spamming the thread, seemed pretty arbitrary. I don't think 72 was getting particularly annoyed by getting called out either, seemed a pretty tongue in cheek response to me. I read nothing AI on this page.

Page 2

The Mizzy-C4 (Chess moves - yeah - the English - c4 e5 g3 d5) exchange I think was Mizzy just trying to drag this game quickly out of RVS and c4 still wanting to goof off. Still nothing particularly AI, imo. In other words, I disagree with Mizzy:

I think c4's response is +town (not worried about defending self, comfortable with rvs being a good enough reason).

I took a peek at some of 72's games and he seems to post a lot. I think activity is NAI and spam is anti-town in general but his reaction to being called on it feels +town. Scum are less comfy expressing that sort of frustration.

I don't think you can make a read on c4 up to this point and I don't think 72 was reacting adversely to the spamming thing... I think he was making a joke. I digress.

I'm going to keep my opinion of the hunterr-Mizzy interaction to myself for now... not sure how much it would help seeing as I subbed for hunterr...

Page 3

- So for me 72 voting Mizzy for the overall LAMIST feel seems like 72 is just annoyed at Mizzy misinterpreting 72's responses.

Page 4

-

I could vote cyl or Bipolar right now. I wanna hear from them both before hand though.

hunterr's unvote is making me move him back towards town. Its easy to unvote at E-1 early for town points but his reasoning beyond that felt genuine to me

This feels like classic newbscum.

Mindset preoccupied with people earning town points, because thats what Mazzy themself are trying to do as scum - trying to appear town.

I don't know 72... Mizzy is being a spaz but this is the second time you warned them about this and they haven't stopped yet. Seems like you are pulling an SE card with the "classic newbscum" quip. I mean we're just impressionable noobs, right?

Page 5

The 72 - Mizzy exchange just makes me scumread 72 more and more...

Page 6

Muh appears! I mean being generally inactive is not good for town I am told. But I don't know if this is an IRL busy thing or if the 72-muh interaction on p.6 are scum trying put some distance between them.

Again I'll stay away from the hunterr posts...

Page 7

Join me on the Mizzy wagon and let the "noteworthy" posts sally forth.

Man... it might be time to check my confirmation bias here...

Page 8

Welcome JDye (shouldn't he be welcoming me?)! So lots going on here for me. I think the JDye entrance clarified some of my reads... more on that below...

So in general my current in no particular order are:

townreads (for now)
JDye
cyl
c4

Mizzy... I do townread them but I don't necessarily agree with their vote analysis that there is at least 1 scum on the original c4 E-1 wagon or that one of the 4 2-vote wagons on page 8 have scum. I think its equally as plausible that scum isn't in either of these groups. However I don't think they are LAMIST... while I don't wish anyone to be sick... I do think Mizzy has been an easier to deal with since taking the paracetemol... they were just all over the place... it was too much noise.

Muh is neutral for me... I could entertain a 72/muh scum team... but I could just as easily see muh as IRL busy and the activity until page 8 as NAI.

Egix - also neutral... although it does strike me as plausible that both scum are low activity SE's

GPig - no read at all... again not sure if the activity is AI or not... I suppose I'll eventually learn to read folks like this

72off- right now my scumread... but (how's this for a poker analogy) I'm either way ahead or way behind on this read... What I mean is that I can't figure out why he is continuing to drum up a train on Mizzy... I just think it too obvious for it to be a scumplay... is that what TSTBS means? Too scummy to be scum... but perhaps thats the ploy? ahhh... I have to go to bed...

UNVOTE: cyl VOTE: 72offsuit

See you all tomorrow... I'll drop by on my lunch break.

[safebet222]

@ safebet:

1. What specifically did you find that made you "scumread 72 more and more" on page 5?

2. On a scale of 1-100, how strongly do you think I scumread Mizzy?

1. Nothing specific except that after you responded to her question in post 109, it made me run the entire interaction over in my head again. Everytime I do that the more I don't like your slot.

2. Like I said, your slot is my scum read rn so as far as I'm concerned that question is moot.

Why do you think starting a wagon on Mizzy is good for town?

[safebet222]

I would really prefer not to be called a spaz though :/

Sorry if I offended, it was more descriptive of the activity level and spreading attention around, not of your personality, which I don't pretend to understand.

[safebet222]

You said I've refused to answer questions (plural). That's only one question, which I then reframed and gave my reads on who I think is leaning scum.

@muh316

How has your scumread list changed any in the last 60 posts?

Do you have any townreads now?

[safebet222]

The fact that 72 is an actual wagon now makes muh's "don't want to OMGUS because it wouldn't gain traction" thing look funny. IMO 72 will likely get easier to read over time based on his playstyle so D1'ing him is suboptimal.

Can you elaborate on why you think that 72 will get easier to read as the game goes on?

Also, do you think the game's general low activity so far is bad for town? If so, what should we do about it?

[safebet222]

Also, do you think the game's general low activity so far is bad for town? If so, what should we do about it?

@c4

Any thoughts?

In fact, anyone care to share their thoughts?

[safebet222]

Sure... Any ideas on making that happen?

[safebet222]

My wagons in order:

72
Muh
Apig

[safebet222]

Id actually like you to talk about the hunter posts.
Given a large part of how i read your slot is based on hunter, its a worthwhile exercise.

I will when I get off work.

[safebet222]

In the meantime let's give folks an even narrower choice.

UNVOTE: 72offsuit VOTE: muh316

[safebet222]

Safebet read muh as neutral but now they're their second favourite elim candidate? What's muh done to move them from neutral to above Pig for an elim? If you think it's 72/muh (don't really think we should be looking at game solves a this point) why not keep your vote on 72?

Fair question...I only have one scum read... I've had my vote there for the better part of 3 days... The wagon isn't going anywhere today... Sometimes you don't get what you want. We have to get moving so I have a choice of 3 other wagons, time for option 2. Even a scum!72off recognizes that.

The question is why would you insist on leaving your vote somewhere that isn't providing pressure to move the game forward?

[safebet222]

How do you know it's not going anywhere? You didn't exactly make much of an effort to push the wagon in the first place and since 72's latest posts dont come off as super towny

I think the wagon is still viable.

As for me "insisting" (don't think thats the right word to use) it's because I think the wagon is still viable and I'm not a huge fan of the other options. I'm netural/leaning scum on Cyl now though.

I disagree... but I'm not giving up my scumread.

[safebet222]

Id actually like you to talk about the hunter posts.
Given a large part of how i read your slot is based on hunter, its a worthwhile exercise.

Ok... tbh I don't blame you for your hunterr. I had a whole thing in my head to write out but it's late and I'm tired and it really boils down to this: Nearly every single one of his posts was about or interacting with Mizzy. Yet his votes were for c4 and Cyl. Made no sense to me and I didn't think it was very helpful for town.

[safebet222]

Id actually like you to talk about the hunter posts.
Given a large part of how i read your slot is based on hunter, its a worthwhile exercise.

Ok... tbh I don't blame you for your hunterr

read

. I had a whole thing in my head to write out but it's late and I'm tired and it really boils down to this: Nearly every single one of his posts was about or interacting with Mizzy. Yet his votes were for c4 and Cyl. Made no sense to me and I didn't think it was very helpful for town.

Fixed my post above...

[safebet222]

I've spent the better part of two hours looking over the game... It's time for bed...

I really liked what Egix has brought since Sunday afternoon. I'm getting town vibes from him. I really like the fact that he saw the 72off had so many scum leans. I don't get it either. I disagree with his cyl read however mainly because I wouldn't expect cyl to have any instincts as she seems to be brand new to forum Mafia. Maybe I'm off on that point... thoughts Egix?

Cyl - hated her last post... but I still think that it comes from not knowing how to respond than some sort of scumplay. The lurking over the last few days is annoying and I completely understand why people are on her wagon.

I'm hoping to get some clarity on which of the viable wagons is best...

[safebet222]

Welp, Looks like I'm a goner. I'm vanilla townie. Hopefully my lynching will give you all the info you need to make better choices tomorrow.

Good luck town.

While you're around, care to give us any thoughts on the game?

[safebet222]

@JDye... Your APig vote confuses me... Are you saying that its most likely that 72 is bussing? Care to elaborate more on this?

[safebet222]

@egix I get having a read and not wanting to move off it... But its time to get moving...cyl's wagon isn't going anywhere today. Who's it going to be?

[safebet222]

I'm gonna get this out of the way... I intend to hammer APig at 10pm Central (Milwaukee, WI time) unless someone hammers Muh or Apig before. I prefer the Muh flip but also prefer the APig flip to no vote.

[safebet222]

Since we have tied wagons and the people who plan to hammer only plan to do so to avoid NE, muh should probably claim to be safe.

Someone needs to claim intent...

[safebet222]

.

Convince me. Your case on muh is weaker than the case on you from my point of view, you don't have intent on you, and we already have a claim and would prefer to avoid more.

Eh, my time will be better spent finishing Lovecraft Country with my roommate. You think I have a weak case. I don't disagree, but I don't have anything to add.

Enjoy the egg on your face. Make better choices tomorrow.[/quote]

so bad... If town loses its on you APig

On mobile right now, do you really want me to claim given we already have one claim? Having 2 claims is not the best idea on D1.

Don't bother... I've heard enough... no point in waiting UNVOTE: muh316 VOTE: AGamblingPig
Dead weight.

[safebet222]

What a nice surprise! Definitely good for town. Thanks for the analysis Mizzy!

@JDye... still have that same read about the 72 slot?

I'm thinking it's a pretty safe bet that we have at least one mafia off the APig wagon... probably gonna concentrate my efforts there first today. Anybody care to disagree?

[safebet222]

Sorry, I did the irresponsible thing of signing up for three games, and one's a hydra on MU so I can't really back out of it, so I'll likely have to replace out.

In the meantime, I'm still trying to figure out if DADV applies to muh. In case it does, VOTE: Egix96 is next on my list.

What does DADV mean? Also, do you want to explain why you were pushing me for a claim when there was no intent to hammer on me?

Found it.

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/wiki/Dead ... d_Villager

[safebet222]

It's likely that we have one scum on my wagon, and one on AGP's wagon.

On my wagon we had C4, Egix and Safebet (before the hammer). Of those I would give scumlean to Egix.

On the other wagon we had cylstar, 72offsuit, Mizzytastic, JDye,

safebet222

. Of these four I would still put 72offsuit and cylstar as scum picks here. Though we'll probably want to analyze the AGP wagon a bit more to see how it developed and how it was being pushed D1. I'll try to do that later today.

I said off of APig's wagon. You were off the APig wagon too... you could still be scum.

[safebet222]

Out of the folks not on the AGP wagon, I think we should flip Muh. He's not lurking... he's posted more than a bunch of you all. He simply is not contributing... except for post #311, he's not really given us anything useful for town. And even that post wasn't very helpful. The whole game all he's done is give us a couple of scumlists and a few comments. These last 2 posts were just parroting me. I don't like it.

VOTE: muh316

[safebet222]

Out of the folks not on the AGP wagon, I think we should flip Muh. He's not lurking... he's posted more than a bunch of you all. He simply is not contributing... except for post #311, he's not really given us anything useful for town. And even that post wasn't very helpful. The whole game all he's done is give us a couple of scumlists and a few comments. These last 2 posts were just parroting me. I don't like it.

VOTE: muh316

Wasn't 72 your top wagon, and I was the neutral one? What happened with 72 that he's no longer a candidate for elimination?

Who says he's not still on my scumlist? I am sorting you out right now. Stop deflecting.

[safebet222]

These last 2 posts were just parroting me. I don't like it.

Parroting you? It's common knowledge that there's scum on a town wagon. You didn't provide any insightful analysis for me to parrot there.

Yeah... Probably not the best choice of words... I didn't like the fact you took my comment of looking off the AGP wagon for scum as looking for scum on your wagon... Again, you could be scum yourself.

[safebet222]

I said off of APig's wagon. You were off the APig wagon too... you could still be scum.

Though we'll probably want to analyze the AGP wagon a bit more to see how it developed and how it was being pushed D1.

You want to look off the wagon and I want to look on the wagon. My thoughts are independent of what you posted

Fine... My main point still stands.

He's not lurking... he's posted more than a bunch of you all. He simply is not contributing... except for post #311, he's not really given us anything useful for town. And even that post wasn't very helpful. The whole game all he's done is give us a couple of scumlists and a few comments.

[safebet222]

@muh BTW... Have a great day! Beautiful weather in our fair city... Enjoy your birthday!

[safebet222]

@Safebet

, why off the Wagon?

Just not putting all my eggs in one basket... I think we have one scum on and one scum off the AGP wagon...

Besides, I already had a muh/72 scumteam in the back of my head.

[safebet222]

I find muh to be sort of town now.

Care to elaborate on that, cyl?

[safebet222]

However, he hammered AGP and now starts off D2 with a wagon on me

since I'm an easy target for a D2 lynch.

This is scummy...

Let's take another look at your wagon vs. AGP wagon. Cyl, 72, Mizzy and JDye were on AGP; AGP, C4, and myself were on your wagon until I asked Egix where he wanted to go... There was no reason to ask you, obviously. After Egix joins your wagon, who was gonna hammer you? You? With 2 hours left who was gonna hammer you? I wasn't gonna get distracted by my family and not hammer someone. Plus AGP's response was so anti-town, made me mad.

Now lets review Where day 2 stood when I voted you...

Cyl townread you in post 372

72 scum reads everyone from post 279, so he doesn't count. Plus he was pushing JDye at the end of day 1.

Mizzy has never indicated a scum read on you and, unless I'm understanding incorrectly, has had cyl on her scumlean list the entire game

JDye - Town read you in post 323, states 72 is his scumread

Egix -

Voted Cyl before I voted.

C4 - Voted Egix before I voted you on day 2.

By my estimation Cyl is the LHF today... not you. You must realize this...

VOTE: cylstar

Forgot to do that in the initial post I made.

Boy, didn't someone say that scum tend to not be the first nor last on a wagon for fear of scrutiny? Gotta find that post.

[safebet222]

There was no reason to ask you, obviously. After Egix joins your wagon, who was gonna hammer you? You? With 2 hours left who was gonna hammer you?

The other 4 players in the game who could have been convinced of AGP innocence. I've also self hammered before viewtopic.php?p=2649614#p2649614

Cyl in posts 295 and 340 made it clear that Pig was her perferred vote and she wasn't changing it

72 was pushing AGP hard during the day and JDye at the end of day 1.

Mizzy has never indicated a scum read on you and in post 347 indicated that the case for AGP was better

JDye - Town read you in post 323, states 72 is his scumread

and with 2 hours to spare and nobody even hanging around half the time, who was I going to convince?

[safebet222]

And just because you self hammered 10 years ago, that makes you town now?

[safebet222]

More generally. muh is saying not much. It's bad. We all agree he should say more. Can someone give me a scum intent for still not trying after people really start calling it out and voting there? Cos right now it feels policy elimy to me.

Is your read on Egix and Muh based on anything other than activity?

@Mizzy I know that these aren't directed at me but I want to answer your questions... I am voting muh not based on activity, muh has posted more than half of the players in this game... there is scum intent...

After not posting one read the entire game and cyl already having 2 votes...

Sorry for post spam, but when I reply I find it easier to manage one reply at a time.

My reads in no particular order

Neutral:
Everyone not listed below

Leaning Scum:
72OffSuit - For constantly nagging me
Egix - For lurking just as much as I am but still remaining mostly under the radar
Cylstar - Scum vibes from the Mizzy buddying. Also just as inactive as I am but not getting the same treatment as me.

I would vote 72 because OMGUS. But that won't gain much traction anyway, so I'll UNVOTE: C4and VOTE: Cylstar

72off noted it in post 183... Looking to push the LHF

Then skip to day 2...

By my estimation Cyl is the LHF today... not you. You must realize this...

VOTE: cylstar

Forgot to do that in the initial post I made.

Boy, didn't someone say that scum tend to not be the first nor last on a wagon for fear of scrutiny? Gotta find that post.

Scummy as hell.

[safebet222]

And just because you self hammered 10 years ago, that makes you town now?

That was just me poking fun of 13 year old muh316.

13! I was 13 nine years before the first game of forum mafia was played... Plus I was more into riding bikes and playing ball... Videogames and maybe had my first crush by then... Certainly not this devious little game.

[safebet222]

Okay time to switch gears... This game is so dead... Muh you're still on my scumlist...

Muh
Low-hanging fruit town

123 - On re-read of the game, I think !scumMuh would try to appease town questioning him, rather than refuse.
His uncooperative attitude reminds me of Worcestshire in Newbie 2015.

viewtopic.php?f=50&t=83462&user_select[]=34514

His refusal to answer in 137 reads like suspicious, guarded town.

Muh's reposting of the same question towards me twice

The severe inactivity at end of day also SCREAMS town vs town wagons,
whereby scum doesnt have to make moves as they already have a miskick secured

More likely to be scum than cyl, though unlikely.

Also this last line is a big thonk.

@egix... Tell me more...72 never left my scumlist. Lets discuss.

72off - his push on JDye felt ungenuine because I think that JD's catchup was fairly obvtown and it seemed like 72 was specifically trying to sow dissent - going in with the preconceived notion that JD "must" be scum rather than actually aiming to sort him.

Do you think this push was scum!72 and if so, why not push 72? That's a wagon I can get on. I'm not interested in a cyl push today.

[safebet222]

I'm not quite so comfy with cyl scum any more. It would totally follow (there is a reason she is LHF) and she's a good policy elim cos that's scary in endgameish situations but I think it's kinda obvious she doesn't care about this game any more whatever her alignment.

I've been reconsidering c4 from the perspective of someone who knew her alignment, thought she was likely to flip and tried to benefit from that but I'm worried I'm being omgusy.

We're already getting to the point we need to start coordinating and I hate it.

How are you being OMGUSy? C4 said flatout that his vote on you was a microread... Any comments on what I posted at your earlier regarding muh?

[safebet222]

@72off... When am I gonna get my turn on your scumread merry-go-round?

[safebet222]

@mizzy

Do you think there is one scum on the AGP wagon and one off the AGP wagon? Do you think there is zero active scum, 1 active scum or 2 active scum? Why?

[safebet222]

@mizzy and 72... Why is scum!muh more likely to be active at the end of day 1? And define end of day 1... Before or after I announced my intent to hammer AGP?

[safebet222]

Looking back it is a tighter time frame than I was remembering. So maybe he just got caught out. But when he was posting around then he didn't seem to have a sense of urgency about himself

Yeah... I'm beginning to think I meesed up our chance to sort muh out well by declaring intent on AGP instead of letting it play out over the final 6 or 8 hours... AGP already claimed but timeline was awful tight... IDK.

I think Muh had no incentive to be active after JDye and I split our votes between AGP and him. Even less after I declared intent, that goes for scum!muh and town!muh.

[safebet222]

I'm kinda tempted to just vote in JDye/72 right now. This doesn't feel TvT to me, I already think they are likely the scum on the AGP wagon, and I'm kinda feeling more and more that cyl and muh are both town, especially cyl.

Too many people look scummy this game >.<

Pedit: did you get any results from your reaction test?

IDK this whole 72v JDye screams TvT for me as I've read through it for the 5th time. I think I'll have to set aside my Day 1 feelings about 72off for now. It just kinda feels that they are accusing each other of the same thing, inconsistency, refusal to cooperate, faulty logic. But what most pings me is that its a lot of noise...

Noone has even bothered to comment on my theory of town vs town wagons = low activity from scum on day one.

What about day two TvT arguments incentivizing Scum to lay low again?

@Mizzy why do you think this is not TvT?

[safebet222]

Since most of you don't think Cylstar is the right elimination for today, I'm going to move my vote off her andUNVOTE: Cylstar VOTE: C4

Voting because C4 didn't answer my question on the vote on Egix. If he's getting replaced, I think we should go pressure the slot.

Why the C4 slot over any of the other slots? What happened to egix on your scum read list from post 311?

Because C4 didn't answer some question you asked when they had already checked out of the game? Seems a bit opportunistic...

[safebet222]

I think we need to push muhs spot hard... The both the D1 and D2 cyl votes seem opportunistic... This change of vote seems scummy to me too. He didn't get real pressure D1 as AGP quickly went from E1 to intent to hammer with just a few hours left.

[safebet222]

Lol apathyfest

[safebet222]

enjoy apathyfest

Lol apathyfest

What do you think is driving the apathy? Waiting for replacements?

unvote:

while I'm getting up to speed.

This is my 3rd newbie games and in all three this has been a complaint...

I think some of it has to do with what time of day folks are active... Seems 72 and JDye are active while I'm sleeping... That sort of thing

But most of why that is this game is beyond me...

[safebet222]

I feel like some of my questions are going to be buried in walls, so I'm going to start asking some separately.

Safebet, in your post 218 you said something about checking your confbias on 72 midway through the catch-up and then ended the post voting him. This is pretty far back in game time, but I'd still like to know if that was a joke, or if were questioning yourself about the strength/accuracy of your read.

It wasn't a joke. I was truly questioning myself. I couldn't beleive so much of what he did was pinging me. I was really hoping to sort him out... He was my first scumread. Not so sure anymore after this latest spat with JDye. I'm inclined to think its TvT. Any thoughts on that?

[safebet222]

I don't think I'm at the point in the game where this is happening yet. I'm on page 12 in my read through. Whereabouts does the spat take off?

Pages 18-21

[safebet222]

Kinda don't want to lynch ffery today given the value she's bringing to the game, though the slot (C4) is sus.

Can I interest you in a 72 wagon? A recent post of mine summarises most of what stands out to me.

Where am I a friggin car dealership?

[safebet222]

72off why should anyone care to cooperate with you when all you do is take them for a spin on your scum carousel?

[safebet222]

If ur convinced im scum y r u not voting for me?

I'm not convinced, I've made that clear.

[safebet222]

If ur convinced im scum y r u not voting for me?

I'm not convinced, I've made that clear.

[safebet222]

FURTHERMORE, what scummotivation do i have to turn around my read on ur slot?

I don't know much about this game, but I do know that scum sure love pocketing town...

[safebet222]

He seems fine. Only thing that's stood out is that nothing has and I think he's been pushing cylslot and muh as a team which feels super unconvincing.

Mizzy... just want to correct you for the benefit of the new players that I've never scumread cyl...I was pushing 72off, and now muh. The only scumteam I mentioned was 72/muh, which is still a possibility.

[safebet222]

Townhunt/POE is how I usually play, unless I get a really strong scumread.

This... this thing that 72 has about how convinced he is that there is only one correct way to go about the game is pinging me.

[safebet222]

Townhunt/POE is how I usually play, unless I get a really strong scumread.

This... this thing that 72 has about how convinced he is that there is only one correct way to go about the game is pinging me.

It annoys me but I townread it. He's so committed. If it was a scum tactic you could pick and choose which things to find bad more specifically to push where you want, he goes after anything that moves in a way he doesn't like

Yeah, but what about the TSTBS tactic? Not possible nor likely here?

[safebet222]

I still think sorting muh is the my preferred play... again deadline looms... and I don't really give 2 shits who scumreads me for it... I'll jump on a wagon I don't like whenever I feel that muh's push isn't going anywhere because I'm pretty sure not flipping anyone is worse. And that time is coming soon.

[safebet222]

Safebet - I smile EVERY TIME I see this avatar.

Then you kniw thr answer is ALWAYS 42.

[safebet222]

Safebet - I smile EVERY TIME I see this avatar.

Then you know the answer is ALWAYS 42.

Fixed the post.

[safebet222]

Egix, don't think Spangled is happening, where you at between muh, 72 and fferyllt?

VOTE: 72offsuit

Ffery is the lhf that 72 is pushing in an effort to save himself. I'm not interested in yeeting muh any more.

Oh boy...here we go again, dueling wagons with hours left... neither of them proper options imo.

Quite frankly... muh isn't going to contribute a damned thing to the game until we force him to...

Out of the three viable wagons (of course this is my opinion that there are three right now) if FF or 72 (or both) is scum, don't you think we have a better chance of catching them without a muh that does the bare minimum? There is still time to sort him, if he's listening...

[safebet222]

Given Muh's concerns about cylstar buddying Mizzy, I'm suprised the 72/Mizzy interactions haven't been a part of his reasons for scumreading 72.

I'm a little surprised that Spangled and I have such opposite reads of 72 given the same thread data and the same-ish starting point.

I'm not surprised... his play is polarizing...

72off- right now my scumread... but (how's this for a poker analogy) I'm either way ahead or way behind on this read... What I mean is that I can't figure out why he is continuing to drum up a train on Mizzy... I just think it too obvious for it to be a scumplay... is that what TSTBS means? Too scummy to be scum... but perhaps thats the ploy? ahhh... I have to go to bed...

That was my point when I first voted him here...

[safebet222]

Out of the folks not on the AGP wagon, I think we should flip Muh. He's not lurking... he's posted more than a bunch of you all. He simply is not contributing... except for post #311, he's not really given us anything useful for town. And even that post wasn't very helpful. The whole game all he's done is give us a couple of scumlists and a few comments. These last 2 posts were just parroting me. I don't like it.

VOTE: muh316

Wasn't 72 your top wagon, and I was the neutral one? What happened with 72 that he's no longer a candidate for elimination?

Out of the three viable wagons (of course this is my opinion that there are three right now) if FF or 72 (or both) is scum, don't you think we have a better chance of catching them without a muh that does the bare minimum? There is still time to sort him, if he's listening...

This is a major red flag. So you’d rather policy eliminate than go for scum

Why is it a red flag? Cause I'm finally trying to convince someone of my vote instead of going to a wagon that has a chance of succeeding with hours left?

This is OMGUS x 2. Horrible.

[safebet222]

I think we need to push muhs spot hard... The both the D1 and D2 cyl votes seem opportunistic... This change of vote seems scummy to me too. He didn't get real pressure D1 as AGP quickly went from E1 to intent to hammer with just a few hours left.

I've made my scumread on you muh... deflection and intentional misdirection. Scum.

[safebet222]

I've spent the first the days of today trying to convince people of my mindset... now I just want you to be pushed.

[safebet222]

There really isn't any time to screw around.

[safebet222]

@muh... what exactly have you done to go after scum? What have you done this game except defend yourself and make a couple opportunistic votes on cyl? And all this I'm on mobile right now, I'm busy crap is old... I'm busy and on mobile most of the time too.

[safebet222]

Don't bother... I've heard enough... no point in waiting UNVOTE: muh316 VOTE: AGamblingPig
Dead weight.

I've made my scumread on you muh... deflection and intentional misdirection. Scum.

The tone here seems very reminiscent of Safebets tone when he eliminated AGP.

How? In one he's moving to the wagon to avoid no elim. In the other he is pushing to get people to vote a long term scum read in tight time constraints. The context is so different

This. Misrepresentation and deflection... scum.

[safebet222]

On mobile right now but seems like you’re advocating a policy lynch on me. What information do you hope to gain on D3 if im eliminated.

Not policy. POE.

I'm not going to vote myself, and I'll be extremely pissed if it comes down to voting a strong townread.

In fact, if that's how today winds down, I won't vote 72.

We're at evens and if nothing changes that then we're looking at a 6-2 or 4-1 mxlo.

@ff can you explain? I need to understand this before we lose more time.

[safebet222]

Given Muh's concerns about cylstar buddying Mizzy, I'm suprised the 72/Mizzy interactions haven't been a part of his reasons for scumreading 72.

I'm a little surprised that Spangled and I have such opposite reads of 72 given the same thread data and the same-ish starting point.

Is he still scum reading 72, I see little recent evidence of that

Yeah, I don't think he is, but the point still stands. When he was scumreading 72, he didn't express concern about 72's interactions with you.

I'd like him to explain what made 72's interactions with you not buddying.

Who is he in this?

[safebet222]

Btw... Thanks for the explanation... I think I get it. 5v2 is better at random chance than 6v2... Making a purely random flip less effective.

[safebet222]

So, if I'm understanding right, I need to modify my stance... It would be dumb of me to just vote a random wagon...

[safebet222]

A completely different situation from yesterday due to the NK.

[safebet222]

Then lets push him here and see what happens in the next 5 hours knowing that a no elim is an option.

[safebet222]

I see England gave Georgia a proper thrashing... congrats.

[safebet222]

@Mod ... can we get another vote count? I don't trust myself to do it like 72...

[safebet222]

Unvote:

Any reasoning?

[safebet222]

Safebet, agree with any of my wagon analysis?
What r ur thoughts on the vote progression and the 3 viable wagon gamestate

If you are town... it makes perfect sense... Still not confident in my read of what you are...

Makes perfect sense too that you are scum with muh or ff and none of the three on your wagon are scum.

[safebet222]

Everyone pls consider the scum duo analysis above. I know it revolves largely around the assumption of me being town, but pls at least consider those teams

Lol... you beat me to the sentiment...

[safebet222]

Dude i jusy edplained y me abd ff makes. Zero sense

What? The fact that you were tunneling c4/ff? You explained why ff and muh makes zero sense... the other is definitely possible... if I'm being stupid please point it out to me... my kids are screaming and I'm playing a game with them while posting.

[safebet222]

If ff and i were scum, we wudv kicked muh ages ago not leavr it to 3 hours with both pf as leading wagons

Who out of JDye, Egix and Spangled was gonna jump on? Takes 5 to eliminate... Spangled was the most likely but he already said he wasn't gonna be around. I suppose JDye has expressed interest in the last couple hours... still not convincing that you're 100% not scum.

[safebet222]

Hey guys games over and I have to cook dinner before they revolt... I'll be back in plenty of time before deadline.

[safebet222]

If ff and i were scum, we wudv kicked muh ages ago not leavr it to 3 hours with both pf as leading wagons

Who out of JDye, Egix and Spangled was gonna jump on? Takes 5 to eliminate... Spangled was the most likely but he already said he wasn't gonna be around. I suppose JDye has expressed interest in the last couple hours... still not convincing that you're 100% not scum.

I never said i was 100 percent not scum.

Lol... as long as we're on the same page...

Yes, your analysis makes sense.

[safebet222]

Can rephrase ur last post, what post r u Talling about.

Im talking about a me and ff scumteam which wud mean jdye egix spang all town, yet i talk about them "jumping" in that scenario.

Ok... you said a you/ff scum team is unlikely because you two would have jumped on muh to eliminate him...

I think that play would be risky because it takes 5 to eliminate so one of JDye, Egix or Spangled would have to jump off your wagon to the muh wagon. So what happens when muh flips green in that scenario? You, ff and who ever moves over becomes auto sus the next day... I don't see that play happening...

[safebet222]

If ff and i were scum, we wudv kicked muh ages ago not leavr it to 3 hours with both pf as leading wagons

Who out of JDye, Egix and Spangled was gonna jump on? Takes 5 to eliminate... Spangled was the most likely but he already said he wasn't gonna be around. I suppose JDye has expressed interest in the last couple hours... still not convincing that you're 100% not scum.

I never said i was 100 percent not scum.

Lol... as long as we're on the same page...

Yes, your analysis makes sense.

So. Whats ur prerference?
Kick or no kick?
If kick, kick who?

I am content with a muh flip or no elim and reevaluate on D3.

[safebet222]

Sounds reasonable

Unvote

[safebet222]

You both have to admit its been a bunch more fun since the double replace...

[safebet222]

My first ever game of Mafia, I was scum with Creature... that wasn't fun.

Sorry Mod...

UNVOTE: Muh316

[safebet222]

I've already learned a lot... sometimes you learn more from people who aren't at their best than from those who are... I think that if the game didn't play out the way it has, it wouldn't have given me as much.

[safebet222]

Goodnight everyone... hope to still be around in the morning.

[safebet222]

See I just think the kill will be Mizzy.

They're all but UTRed. This won't get rid of a difficult to read player, quite the opposite, it'll get rid of the only player every seems to think is town. Then we'll just be more fractured and more divided than before.

That's why I think no-lynch is bad; we just won't get anything out of it. Yes we want to be on an odd number but we want to do that on our terms, especially in MyLo, not now when town still has a reasonable number of scum; 6-2 ain't bad and 5-2 just gets worse.

Well, unless there was an intentional NK N1, there is either a JK or Doc to protect her.

[safebet222]

What scares me is that it could be, though. Some of your posts have seemed at least a little townie to me, in that they're honest, I guess.

Polarizing... this is my point... and why I waffle. It's so unbelievable that he's either scum making a hell of a ballsy play or town firing at anything that moves...

[safebet222]

2 minutes come on please.

Nope... I think scum is in a bad spot

[safebet222]

How is scum in a bad spot? They have us right where they want us; divided and apathetic, thoroughly unsure.

If Mizzy is protected... who do they kill?

[safebet222]

Bahaha killing muh

Yeah... No idea why.

[safebet222]

VOTE: fferyllt

Is this indicative of anything you gleaned overnight?

[safebet222]

Or just a continuation of what you were saying at the end of the day on D2?

[safebet222]

VOTE: fferyllt

Is this indicative of anything you gleaned overnight?

I think we should be discussing whether or not we think we mass claim here.

Can you explain why you think this is a possible play? I don't think I've ever heard it floated on a D2 after D1 and N1 kills are both on town.

[safebet222]

I really have nothing to contribute to the massclaim discussion... I really don't know enough about it. However, Mizzy, you got enough towncred to have my attention. I will wait to discuss other matters for a while. I'm off to bed... Later.

[safebet222]

I'm not certain it's right, that's why I want a discussion. It has the potential to produce a lot of clears, but I dunno whether the average case is good enough. Either way I'm not sure asking if a vote is based on night stuff is the right take.

All I meant was if he had reread the D1 & D2 activity and came up with something different than what he was saying at the end of D2... I wasn't trying to refer to the NK at all.

Also 72, safebet - I've come up with a few reasons why muh might get killed but I'd be curious to hear what reasons you might be after thinking it through a bit before just dumping that on the thread. I didn't have to push myself and I'm bit surprised by your "no idea why scum would do this" reaction

To be frank... this is where I struggle with Mafia in general. He was the last one I expected because he was such a viable wagon, and would have continued to be today too if he weren't NK'd... Now I am really off to bed.

[safebet222]

I'm happy. I think.

@spangled my comment about a backordered spine was a joke/encouragement to myself. When I went on hiatus I felt like I'd become almost paralytic about taking stances and making choices/decisions. I'm doing better since un-retiring, and my 24+ hours in Day 2 was pretty stance-y for me.

Oh, I see, right. Glad you’re not

actually

missing a spine.

But speaking of stances, I really want to see why you think 72 is town.

This sounds like scum vs scum

I'd like to talk about this...

You didn't say that though. Your reasoning could totally be read as "this is my rvs vote, I only just figured out how to do it."

And the 72 comment sounds like putting out feelers to see if it will go. VOTE: cylstar

So your attacks are:
1. Not immediately stating reasoning, but then doing so when asked, which is a valid attack, uh, never?
2. Asking for affirmation on a read... in a mfn newbie game

I still have more reading to do to catch up but this is just gross. VOTE: Mizzytastic

ISOs:

Mizzy -- Tunneling someone in a vacuum is generally NAI and avoiding tunneling someone is good but Mizzy's treatment of cyl is horribly inconsistent with Mizzy's treatment of me.

I reread the game during the night phase and this stuck out... C4 coming to Cyl's defense. Mizzy talked about the chainsaw defense before...

[safebet222]

@Mod Is the timer correct? I think it malfunctioned again.

[safebet222]

Ok... @Mizzy... I think 72 is correct that massclaim is not good for town here. I don't think there is incentive for scum to do anything but claim VT in any setup. Except for...

a) If we are in a 1 PR setup, scum just claim vanilla, and the PR gets night killed.

In this situation, unless there was a NK gambit, the 1PR is JK... Scum could claim tracker or FN... So town can't even trust the massclaim result fully unless there is a doc setup. It might benefit town if we are in the cop and doc setup and cop has hit scum. And even then I'm not sure outing that before MELo/ ELo is good either.

Let me know why I'm wrong if I am.

[safebet222]

Massclaiming now would throw away one of the town benefits of no elim yesterday.

[safebet222]

VOTE: Spangled

Your play trying to convince us to elim in a rush at the end of yesterday coupled with your massclaim advocacy doesn't look good.

[safebet222]

More town apathy?

[safebet222]

Hold on...putting kids to bed

[safebet222]

TOWN
Yours truly
Mizzy
JDye
Egix Null
FF Null to slight scumlean based on C4 hard defending Cyl and I now see Spangled as my main scum read right now.
Spangled
SCUM

72... you get your own category... Polarizing Scumtown??? In other words I don't know what to think about you. Your 1v1 with JDye screams TvT but your constant moving on scum reads is unsettling. Your no massclaim analysis is spot on in my opinion and what you say in your own defense about your playstyle makes sense along with your play at the end of D2. I'm gonna play nice with you for now... but my vote stays on Spangled.

[safebet222]

What time is it where you are at?

[safebet222]

TOWN
Yours truly
Mizzy
JDye
Egix Null
FF Null to slight scumlean based on C4 hard defending Cyl and I now see Spangled as my main scum read right now.
Spangled
SCUM

72... you get your own category... Polarizing Scumtown??? In other words I don't know what to think about you. Your 1v1 with JDye screams TvT but your constant moving on scum reads is unsettling. Your no massclaim analysis is spot on in my opinion and what you say in your own defense about your playstyle makes sense along with your play at the end of D2. I'm gonna play nice with you for now... but my vote stays on Spangled.

How confident are you of your reads overall? Which reads are you the most confident of?

I'm a noob so nothing is exactly what I'd call confident. Mizzy is the one that would be the hardest for someone to change my mind about.

[safebet222]

TOWN
Yours truly
Mizzy
JDye
Egix Null
FF Null to slight scumlean based on C4 hard defending Cyl and I now see Spangled as my main scum read right now.
Spangled
SCUM

72... you get your own category... Polarizing Scumtown??? In other words I don't know what to think about you. Your 1v1 with JDye screams TvT but your constant moving on scum reads is unsettling. Your no massclaim analysis is spot on in my opinion and what you say in your own defense about your playstyle makes sense along with your play at the end of D2. I'm gonna play nice with you for now... but my vote stays on Spangled.

FF is second scummiest. Why not wagon FF with me? FF has soft-claimed already.

No, not right now. I said I'd play nice, not be a sheep.

[safebet222]

Spoiler:

TOWN
Yours truly
Mizzy
JDye
Egix Null
FF Null to slight scumlean based on C4 hard defending Cyl and I now see Spangled as my main scum read right now.
Spangled
SCUM

72... you get your own category... Polarizing Scumtown??? In other words I don't know what to think about you. Your 1v1 with JDye screams TvT but your constant moving on scum reads is unsettling. Your no massclaim analysis is spot on in my opinion and what you say in your own defense about your playstyle makes sense along with your play at the end of D2. I'm gonna play nice with you for now... but my vote stays on Spangled.

How confident are you of your reads overall? Which reads are you the most confident of?

I'm a noob so nothing is exactly what I'd call confident. Mizzy is the one that would be the hardest for someone to change my mind about.

How difficult does this game compare to your previous games. How confident r ur reads this game compared to previous ganes?

I have played 2 games one in 2017 and one in 2018. Replaced into scum 1st game. 2nd game I was NK N1. So, I've never had to give D2 nor D3 reads... No basis to answer this question.

[safebet222]

Did you read my first game where some poor townie was wagoned after my horrible fake claim? That townie was pretty aggro like you, hence my polarization on you.

[safebet222]

Spoiler:

TOWN
Yours truly
Mizzy
JDye
Egix Null
FF Null to slight scumlean based on C4 hard defending Cyl and I now see Spangled as my main scum read right now.
Spangled
SCUM

72... you get your own category... Polarizing Scumtown??? In other words I don't know what to think about you. Your 1v1 with JDye screams TvT but your constant moving on scum reads is unsettling. Your no massclaim analysis is spot on in my opinion and what you say in your own defense about your playstyle makes sense along with your play at the end of D2. I'm gonna play nice with you for now... but my vote stays on Spangled.

How confident are you of your reads overall? Which reads are you the most confident of?

I'm a noob so nothing is exactly what I'd call confident. Mizzy is the one that would be the hardest for someone to change my mind about.

How difficult does this game compare to your previous games. How confident r ur reads this game compared to previous ganes?

I have played 2 games one in 2017 and one in 2018. Replaced into scum 1st game. 2nd game I was NK N1. So, I've never had to give D2 nor D3 reads... No basis to answer this question.

Do you feel like your play has changed over the breaks, even though it's only 2 games? Does it feel like starting from scratch every time?

Not sure, it was a long time ago. It's not like starting completely from scratch, but almost.

[safebet222]

Ok.. I'm bored. I reread the thread during the last night phase... Here are some things I'd like to discuss ... Anyone can pick and choose what to respond to. First, concerning the BiPolar/JDye spot...

A trio of questions.

For everyone, what's your experience with mafia?

I've played a ton of fm at sc2mafia.

Played the custom starcraft 2 mafia mod like a thousand times.

We get pretty toxic at sc2mafia

how toxic do we get here at mafiascum?

BP then put C4 at E-1 the very next post. Can someone explain to me if this is AI or not? As an inexperienced player I don't think I would put anyone at E-1 during RVS as either alignment. I'm not sure why a more experienced player would do that.

[safebet222]

I remember ff saying something to me about my use 1v1, it was me using the wrong terminology I think. I was saying more that it focuses everyone else onto ff v 72, not that you two would necessarily be going at it back and forth

So is there any value in dueling wagon today? If so, between whom?

[safebet222]

So another note I have is from post 136, Mizzy mentioned for a second time her tone read that a terse tone is more town AI. At what point does explicitly stating the tone read make it NAI, if it ever were AI?

[safebet222]

Its for anyone that wants to answer.

[safebet222]

@ff... Are we gonna find out where you're going to put your vote anytime soon?

[safebet222]

Or where you're thinking bof putting your vote?

[safebet222]

You might be waiting until D4 unless we decide to kick him.

[safebet222]

Btw thanks for the answer.

[safebet222]

Right now I want interaction. Especially with Spangled, but that will have to wait until he's back.

Do you have any questions for me? You have my attention.

[safebet222]

While you are here. Please comment on wagons in vote count in post 289. Dont need an indepth analysis
Want your gut feel read now.

Woooow it's almost like cylstar is conf scum
Should focus more on offsuit/safebet/Jdye

So why isn't your vote on Spangled right now?

[safebet222]

Right now I want interaction. Especially with Spangled, but that will have to wait until he's back.

Do you have any questions for me? You have my attention.

Can you talk about your current take on JDye and 72?

JDye has been notably absent all day. Skimming his ISO again, its weird that he chose to tunnel 72. Make up with him then check out. It seems off. I'm curious to know what you think of JDye now.

As far as 72 is concerned, I am weary of him. I can see him as scum having pocketed you and Mizzy and trying to pocket me. However, he has worked his tail off trying to move this game on so major town cred for that, he could be building a townblock as best he can. I'll continue to play nice but won't hesitate kicking him if the game goes that way.

[safebet222]

Looking more at JDye... It seems off because I think he was deflated about the 1v1. Probably not AI, just off cause he was done with the game at that point

[safebet222]

Your trajectory has gone back and forth a little on both of them. At the end of day 1 I think you had JDye as a stronger townread, though you'd called their back and forth TvT.

My JDye read was rushed, but I thought he was pretty town. It's faded some and I'd like to know more about what his thoughts were as day 2 was winding down.

My trajectory has definitely gone back and forth on 72... Not so much on JDye.

[safebet222]

He made it of his own choice.

He got obssessed with 1 post and completely ignored the rest of the thread.

It was a pretty unreasonable post you made. What did you expect?

[safebet222]

He made it of his own choice.

He got obssessed with 1 post and completely ignored the rest of the thread.

It was a pretty unreasonable post you made. What did you expect?

I expected him to scumread that post, which seemed reasonable, and then interact with other players.
Not scumread it, ignore the REST of my ISO including my ISOs on all players and largely ignore other players

Fair point, but is it AI? It ruined his will to play the game, is that scummy?

[safebet222]

My JDye read was rushed, but I thought he was pretty town. It's faded some and I'd like to know more about what his thoughts were as day 2 was winding down.

Well, if that doesn't happen, and Spangled doesn't get back in time to get the interaction you want, what is your next priority?

[safebet222]

@ff... Has there been any change in your read on Mizzy?

[safebet222]

He made it of his own choice.

He got obssessed with 1 post and completely ignored the rest of the thread.

It was a pretty unreasonable post you made. What did you expect?

I expected him to scumread that post, which seemed reasonable, and then interact with other players.
Not scumread it, ignore the REST of my ISO including my ISOs on all players and largely ignore other players

Fair point, but is it AI? It ruined his will to play the game, is that scummy?

Potentially yes. Tunnel saves scum from actually creating reads.

Noted.

[safebet222]

@ff So who is it exactly that you had on your town/town lean list before that didn't belong there?

[safebet222]

@ff So who is it exactly that you had on your town/town lean list before that didn't belong there?

I think one of you, JDye or egis. Possibly two.

Feels foggy. I'm trying to spin the game on a Spangled axis and maybe that's a mistake.

You just got done saying how Egix was town based on your meta read and that JDye was pretty much town but some questions came up at the end of D2 you wanted to ask him about, but now he's checked out if the game. So... I expected you to have something more substantial to say about me and why I don't belong on the town read list anymore... I'm kind of disappointed.

[safebet222]

Ok, fair enough, FF. Just so you know, we'll probably need to consolidate before you get what you want.

[safebet222]

Why do you reckon JDye’s town?

I answered before. I've not wavered on my read of JDye.

Right now I want interaction. Especially with Spangled, but that will have to wait until he's back.

Do you have any questions for me? You have my attention.

Can you talk about your current take on JDye and 72?

JDye has been notably absent all day. Skimming his ISO again, its weird that he chose to tunnel 72. Make up with him then check out. It seems off. I'm curious to know what you think of JDye now.

Looking more at JDye... It seems off because I think he was deflated about the 1v1. Probably not AI, just off cause he was done with the game at that point

[safebet222]

Before that, I saw that JDye/72 1v1 as mostly TvT. Don't see why scum would choose to get in a pissing match with 72 for so long.

[safebet222]

Ok... @Mizzy... I think 72 is correct that massclaim is not good for town here. I don't think there is incentive for scum to do anything but claim VT in any setup. Except for...

a) If we are in a 1 PR setup, scum just claim vanilla, and the PR gets night killed.

In this situation, unless there was a NK gambit, the 1PR is JK... Scum could claim tracker or FN... So town can't even trust the massclaim result fully unless there is a doc setup. It might benefit town if we are in the cop and doc setup and cop has hit scum. And even then I'm not sure outing that before MELo/ ELo is good either.

Let me know why I'm wrong if I am.

I do see your logic here; I’m torn between the problems with massclaiming, but also the possibility that a cop with two greens, say, could die. Or even a JK with an either-red-or-green, or a tracker with a probably-green... I just think, more data is better.

Agh it’s difficult. It would suck so much if we lost masons, especially. Maybe... if there are masons claim VT? That could work, I guess; then we know that there are masons but not who they are. But that leaves space open for scum to claim masons in a crucial moment and just WIFOMs the game up so much, which doesn’t tend to help ‘cause it just gums up logical sequences and workings.

Are you still considering a no kill gambit? It's the only way masons show up. You're not making sense.

[safebet222]

Ok... @Mizzy... I think 72 is correct that massclaim is not good for town here. I don't think there is incentive for scum to do anything but claim VT in any setup. Except for...

a) If we are in a 1 PR setup, scum just claim vanilla, and the PR gets night killed.

In this situation, unless there was a NK gambit, the 1PR is JK... Scum could claim tracker or FN... So town can't even trust the massclaim result fully unless there is a doc setup. It might benefit town if we are in the cop and doc setup and cop has hit scum. And even then I'm not sure outing that before MELo/ ELo is good either.

Let me know why I'm wrong if I am.

I do see your logic here; I’m torn between the problems with massclaiming, but also the possibility that a cop with two greens, say, could die. Or even a JK with an either-red-or-green, or a tracker with a probably-green... I just think, more data is better.

Unless someone else wants to get into it with Spangled on this point, I'd rather not except to say what he wrote is not accurate and should not be used as a basis for deciding.

[safebet222]

@mizzy and @egix lets get some votes down before we get too far along.

[safebet222]

Spangled is at E-2.

[safebet222]

Do we know what's going on with the no kills?

After the N1 no kill... There wasn't much activity until right before nightfall. We had a couple of sub ins and no real consensus. The idea of no kill came uo as an alternative to a miselim because we were at evens at that point.

[safebet222]

The N1 no kill was a JK or Doc save. Most don't think a no kill gambit is on the table.

[safebet222]

Do we know what's going on with the no kills?

After the N1 no kill... There wasn't much activity until right before nightfall. We had a couple of sub ins and no real consensus. The idea of no kill came uo as an alternative to a miselim because we were at evens at that point.

Not much activity except the 72/ JDye 1v1, that is.

[safebet222]

BTW... Welcome MC. Forgive me for the abbreviation.

[safebet222]

He was one of the dueling wagons D1 and one of the leading wagons D2 when we decided to no vote. 72 posited that scum perhaps went for low activity PR and came up empty.

[safebet222]

From what I recall, cyl put her vote on him early and never moved it. Egix went on and off before we went towards the dueling wagons. I hammered a few hours before nightfall.

[safebet222]

Look at pages 11-14... And you can form your own opinion on that wagon... It was 72 followed by Mizzy and JDye.

[safebet222]

dnd tonight, 9 pm til ? US Eastern time. I'll be around after that.

Cool... What campaign are you playing?

[safebet222]

Ohhh... Very cool storyline. Enjoy!

[safebet222]

Can you expand on your read of Mizzy?

[safebet222]

Can you expand on your read of Mizzy?

Sorry MC... I'm on mobile and missed the spoiler.

[safebet222]

So what do you make of FF hard def ending him at the end of day 2?

[safebet222]

Mizzy. What r ur thoughts re: ff now.
Still not voting.

I'm not going to vote myself.

I'm not going to vote you.

I'm spooked about voting Muh.

I hate starting another wagon on someone who may not be around to react to it.

No elim isn't a complete disaster given it's evens.

I don't think I've ever been this comfortable not having a vote down near deadline!

This is the craziest replace-in situation ever.

You say u townread me and im the leading wagon, yet u arent really doing anything to rectify the siuation. Which points to scumFF[/quote

I will go ballistic if a player drops out of the sky and votes you. It won't be a pretty sight.

Look 4 minutes I think 72's wagon still has three on it. I really think we ought to save up the extra person for MyLo. Can we please get someone to flip who hasn't done much so that it's any easier to read tomorrow?

VOTE: 72

Don't.

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I'm still gonna make some popcorn for when she gets back. Should make for some good reading.

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You gonna stick around some, MC? Let me jump on my PC, I want to ask you a few things.

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Ok... I wish I had time for DnD... Started playing Basic Fantasy with my kids recently. Kind of itches the TTRPG bug while spending time with them.

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The reason I'm considering claiming is cos we have had an extra round of night actions for bodycount than we usually would have. Some of the setups have a decent chance of having extra clears beyond two uncountered claims which can really reduce the PoE. It also means that if scum counterclaim we don't end up losing if we get it wrong like we would tomorrow. I wanna think through all the options to try and present an optimal strategy and get feedback on it before anyone does anything, but I think there are probably some situations where we should claim and some where we shouldn't, decided by what town power there is and any results they've had.

I totally agree with seeing how the day plays out for now. I'm not saying "we should massclaim right now", I'm saying "I think there is a decent chance it's correct but it needs much thonk"

Your reasoning seems sound here, to me. We’re in quite a good situation as regards PRs; neither are dead and both have had several nights in which to do things. Clearing some people would be great. Likewise, the point about counterclaims is good; this is the right spot to massclaim because tomorrow scum could potentially counterclaim successfully.

Of course, if we had JK + VT, for example, that would kind of suck; we get no

definite

clears or confirmations because — theoretically — no kill the first night could be a no-kill gambit (unlikely but worth keeping in mind) or a protection of either scum or town. And there is the fact that NK analysis grinds to a halt; if two PRs claim they’ll be killed one after the other and that doesn’t give us much to work with there.

But on the whole I think we should still do it; if it’s B3, say, we can get quite a bit out of that. And if a PR were to die tonight and we hadn’t massclaimed, their potential clears or half-clears (so to speak) go with them to the grave. And tomorrow scum could counterclaim and win if they’re successful, which I’d like to avoid.

Yeah, I reckon we should.

Ok... @Mizzy... I think 72 is correct that massclaim is not good for town here. I don't think there is incentive for scum to do anything but claim VT in any setup. Except for...

a) If we are
I'm scum reading Spangled but not Mizzy for this... in a 1 PR setup, scum just claim vanilla, and the PR gets night killed.

In this situation, unless there was a NK gambit, the 1PR is JK... Scum could claim tracker or FN... So town can't even trust the massclaim result fully unless there is a doc setup. It might benefit town if we are in the cop and doc setup and cop has hit scum. And even then I'm not sure outing that before MELo/ ELo is good either.

Let me know why I'm wrong if I am.

I do see your logic here; I’m torn between the problems with massclaiming, but also the possibility that a cop with two greens, say, could die. Or even a JK with an either-red-or-green, or a tracker with a probably-green... I just think, more data is better.

Unless someone else wants to get into it with Spangled on this point, I'd rather not except to say what he wrote is not accurate and should not be used as a basis for deciding.

My questions...

1) I scum read Spangled for the top exchange but not Mizzy... confirmation bias on Mizzy due to UTR? Or is the stance on the massclaim idea NAI? I think mass claim is throwing away any advantage on the NK idea from D2.

2) What do you think about my exchange with Spangled below?

[safebet222]

I wish I had time for DnD...

Me too

We have been going mostly weekly since march which is super fun, but I'm DMing a homebrew campaign which is super hard

I haven't been a player high school... I started watching Twitch streams of some of the 5e campaigns a couple years ago. Just too much else going on to play except if its family time. Anyway, if I got into playing again it'd probably be with my 12-yr old if he ever wanted to get serious about it.

[safebet222]

I wish I had time for DnD...

Me too

We have been going mostly weekly since march which is super fun, but I'm DMing a homebrew campaign which is super hard

I haven't been a player

since

high school... I started watching Twitch streams of some of the 5e campaigns a couple years ago. Just too much else going on to play except if its family time. Anyway, if I got into playing again it'd probably be with my 12-yr old if he ever wanted to get serious about it.

Fixed my post.

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I will post a full case on 72 later tonight, but this is now a 1v1. I won't accept any other elimination today

I hate ultimatums...

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Well you'll be convinced later. But this town needs serious help

Fine, but minus the condescending bullshit, ok?

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Throw enough mud and something will stick, hey?

Boy 72off, kind of ironic coming from you.

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From what? Your vote? She's hardly in trouble.

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I don't fault anyone from scumreading you

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As for the options, 2 is the only one I would see any use in.

Yeah, 2 first then 3.

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I won't get ahead of myself though, I'm much more sure of 72 for now

One question, what if 72 flips green, then what?

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MC... do you mind if I play devil's advocate for a bit?

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Sorry... side tracked... devils advocate coming up...

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I think I follow your case against 72 pretty well... and thanks for the answer to my question.

Your case seems to hinge on the assumption that 72 plays better town than this. Let's play Occam's Razor...

Can we agree that 72 has had mostly scum reads of everyone and has attacked anything that moved? Can we also agree that the game has been rough as far as lack of activity, save a few players, and been riddled with replacements, both not good for town? If so, I ask...

What is more plausible?

A) 72 is scum playing TSTBS in a game where scum really doesn't need to do much to reach MELo

B) 72 is being a very toxic (perhaps bad, but I don't pretend to know enough about this game to say) townie trying to drum up activity in a dead game he knows benefits scum

To me A) seems pretty elaborate, not unthinkable, but elaborate, and riddled with danger. Town can be scummy too.

[safebet222]

UNVOTE: Spangled

VOTE: 72offsuit

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72 is at E-1 I think.

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YES 72OFFSUIT IS AT E-1

Please announce intent before hammer.

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I read or heard somewhere once that when town in Mafia, don't underestimate the importance of building consensus between your town reads. You've done that to a large extent where 72off has only continually dropped bombs and demanded consensus. Building and demanding consensus is very different. Plus, I think I've learned more in the past 36 hours about this game than in the previous 3 weeks. If you're scum, I'll wear that badge.

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Massclaiming now would throw away one of the town benefits of no elim yesterday.

I thought I made it clear d2 that I was in favour of no elim because I thought it played well with a mass claim after

I don't think I ever said I agreed with you on that point... I agreed to no kill with the rest of the active players at the time.

The main benefit of the No-kill is to give your PRs more time to solve the game. Mass claiming would basically throw that away.

[safebet222]

TOWN
Yours truly
Mizzy
JDye
Egix Null
FF Null to slight scumlean based on C4 hard defending Cyl and I now see Spangled as my main scum read right now.
Spangled
SCUM

72... you get your own category... Polarizing Scumtown??? In other words I don't know what to think about you. Your 1v1 with JDye screams TvT but your constant moving on scum reads is unsettling. Your no massclaim analysis is spot on in my opinion and what you say in your own defense about your playstyle makes sense along with your play at the end of D2. I'm gonna play nice with you for now... but my vote stays on Spangled.

FF is second scummiest. Why not wagon FF with me? FF has soft-claimed already.

In a post you previously pointed out as "why would town do this". What's the point in playing coy then just pointing it out pages later

Not sure I follow your question here, Mizzy.

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Ahhh... you were referring to 72, Mizzy. I get it.

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I think I follow your case against 72 pretty well... and thanks for the answer to my question.

Your case seems to hinge on the assumption that 72 plays better town than this. Let's play Occam's Razor...

Can we agree that 72 has had mostly scum reads of everyone and has attacked anything that moved? Can we also agree that the game has been rough as far as lack of activity, save a few players, and been riddled with replacements, both not good for town? If so, I ask...

What is more plausible?

A) 72 is scum playing TSTBS in a game where scum really doesn't need to do much to reach MELo

B) 72 is being a very toxic (perhaps bad, but I don't pretend to know enough about this game to say) townie trying to drum up activity in a dead game he knows benefits scum

To me A) seems pretty elaborate, not unthinkable, but elaborate, and riddled with danger. Town can be scummy too.

UNVOTE: Spangled


VOTE: 72offsuit

I read 1300 as you thinking B was more likely than A. Your vote suggests otherwise.

Up until MC's case was made, you are correct, I tended to think B) was more likely than A). It's what was holding me back from voting 72off the last 24 hours... it has really been the thing holding me back from trying with all of my might to push 72 since I decided to take my vote off him D1. I think I have made my position on 72 more than clear since taking my vote off of him D1.

I also made myself clear on why I am siding with MC here.

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Ohh... two page headers in a row!!

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Is there some kind of award for that?

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Also I don't think scum!CAT needs to bus there or line me up for the next elim.

Does anyone else think this is TMI that 72 is flipping scum?

Like specially the use of the word bus seems off to me, if I'm scum wouldn't it be much more likely 72 is town? The rest of the post doesn't have a strong 72 is scum assumption so I actually think that might be a slip

Nope... disagree. I think she is making the POE case that it's either me or Spangled if 72 flips scum... she then follows up that if he flips green she sees you as sus. Doesn't make her not scum but its no slip.

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But like there's no consideration of 72 being town in that part of the post. I'm talking specifically about that one line about me bussing. Like there is nothing there about scum murdercat possibly pushing a town 72 miselim.

Because she talks about town!72 in the bottom of her post. Don't let conf bias get in the way of your case.

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Mmm I don't know
Anyway if 72 is scum I could fill a book with evidence for mizzy so I'm not worried about it

Exactly my point.

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No... I was talking about the Mizzy scum slip thing... but it doesn't matter.

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Cool let's get a claim then

Mizzy claimed intent already

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think he means a claim from 72, which probably comes later based on when they seem to be active

ahh...

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Select what you want next:

1. town case on fferyllt slot
2. town case on spangled slot
3. independent scum case on Mizzy
4. 72/Mizzy scum pair case

Egix, help me out here, come vote 72 with me. Me, you, ff, safebet, maybe we can get Mizzy to bus at that point

Gladly.

VOTE: 72offsuit

As for the options, 2 is the only one I would see any use in.

As for the options, 2 is the only one I would see any use in.

Yeah, 2 first then 3.

We asked for it, Mizzy.

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UNVOTE: 72off

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E-2

Don't need any lolhammers.

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Hold on now... FF you're claiming tracker?

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So you're saying C4 couldn't have gotten a result N1 if he was jailed...

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Oh god.

unvote:

you could have been roleblocked

Nope... there was no N1 kill.

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Ok... @Mizzy... I think 72 is correct that massclaim is not good for town here. I don't think there is incentive for scum to do anything but claim VT in any setup. Except for...

a) If we are in a 1 PR setup, scum just claim vanilla, and the PR gets night killed.

In this situation, unless there was a NK gambit, the 1PR is JK... Scum could claim tracker or FN... So town can't even trust the massclaim result fully unless there is a doc setup. It might benefit town if we are in the cop and doc setup and cop has hit scum. And even then I'm not sure outing that before MELo/ ELo is good either.

Let me know why I'm wrong if I am.

This is the WIFOM shit I wanted to avoid, but alas we're here.

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@egix... You there? Check in pls.

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Spoiler:

Of course i am.

Look at tye effort ive put in.
Regardless, even if i was scum.
I get intent to hammered AFTER ASKING MIZZY TO notify me when back in the thread.

Fuck you dude. Whenever I've done anything other than exactly what you want you bombard me with posts until I get in line or leave the thread. You are part of the reason for my apathy this game. If you read what I said I specifically avoided the thread after you said that cos it sound my anxiety and I just wanted a chance to get my own thoughts out without being railroaded. And when I don't do what you want you just get angry at me and I feel like avoiding you in the first plane was the right thing


Anyway UNVOTE: , no cc here

K. Apologies if i made the game unenjoyable for u, was jot my intention.
I probs got carried away with the game. Just townread you hard and i thought u townread me.

Im not surprised u voted for me given i can see from this post how angry and fruastrated u r with me.

If i knew u were at this level i wudv stepped back.

All i can say is my bad.

I'm sorry for snapping there. I've had a lot going on this game and it bled into the game and I'm sorry.

I could never confidently town read you because you were being intentionally anti charismatic. TSTBS players are usually just town - either a new player who doesn't know or an experienced one who doesn't care - but you can never be confident there. Especially when I've been pocketed like that before.

I should double check who talked about me potentially being pocketed. I'm pretty sure JDye did but that might just be him being tunnelled. I also think I remember Safebet doing it to convince me to vote muh (amongst other stuff) despite his read on you being more mixed - could be intentional.

I've also been out of the game in general and lack a lot of confidence over my reads - like I first post I'm not good at this game.

I am decent at sounding town, but as far as I'm concerned I'm not great at scum hunting or producing reads, which means as scum I dunno what to fake

. My town strategy is be honest about my thoughts, pay attention to town health and hope I say something that helps someone else solve the game. It's probably what CAT was reading too

Don't be discouraged, bolded applies to me too

It not only applies to me but I'm pretty sure I am worse at this game than you, Mizzy. Look at my reads! Muh and 72Off, like almost completely wrong. I can't even say I got the FF read even partially right on my D3 reads list. I'm pretty sure the best thing for town!me to do is to organically create a scumread and then townread them hard. In comparison, you're doing just fine when you give yourself a chance, cut yourself a break once in a while .

It looks like I have an uphill battle tomorrow to convince people I'm town. I am aware there is a pretty hard PoE case against me, not to mention the coming VCA I can already see coming. I want to be as helpful as I can for the rest of the day.

@72... Let me know what you want from me, if anything. You say you want reads but I'm not sure if you'll listen to my reads. I will give them if you want them. I also want to know if we should be discussing about tomorrow's night action as it relates to 72, because I have an idea. I think it's an obvious one, but I'm not sure and I don't want to leave it to chance. Rather have someone tell me I'm dumb.

As far as the nice thing... ever hear of the phrase "Wisconsin Nice"? MC must have. It's a personality trait.

LMK.

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We should all be giving opinions about who the last scum is as that's the best shot to keep 72 alive.

72 should also announce a target to clear them if he does die

Perfect... It was obvious.

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what I mean by the sounding nice thing is there are just some players who can sound nice and say reasonable things and turn out to be scum even though people find it generally townie, they are usually easier to catch after you get the partner, that's been my read on your slot for most of the game

I think Safebet is both a good shot for being scum and a useful person to have confirmed as town

I understand... I just wanted to make sure you know it would be in either of my ranges. I've been told I'm just a nice guy.

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We should all be giving opinions about who the last scum is as that's the best shot to keep 72 alive.

72 should also announce a target to clear them if he does die

Understood... I will say right now that Spangled is my best guess based on what I said before about C4 defending Cyl D1 when the Cyl wagon was forming that day. My notes say it was in posts #111 and #112. He even voted Mizzy for it. Could be a chainsaw defense and they both replaced out once there was a no kill? It's kinda sus that they both bailed within a few posts of each other. Maybe significant that C4 bailed first then Cyl, Cyl being the less experienced player. IDK. I will try to do more rereading as my schedule allows. Unfortunately, its a busy day for me today. I should be available for the few hours leading up to nightfall however.

[safebet222]

I'm getting off work now too and will be around off and on until deadline as well.