Newbie 2111 - Know Your Skittles! (Game Over)

[Weuler]

:O Aureal and Elements! And hi Arko!

[Weuler]

VOTE: Elements for trying to pocket me

[Weuler]

unless the reaction that is being tested is to you saying you are reaction testing...

Now you ruined the second-order reaction test

[Weuler]

Weuler, can I persuade you to VOTE: Taly?

I prefer to vote for people who have made a post

[Weuler]

Arko's entrance was odd. Perhaps he is tired, perhaps not. For now I think a VOTE: Arko is not too bad.

[Weuler]

That is E-2 btw

[Weuler]

Also VT read on Human Sequencer, it'd be odd to ignore a game if there's something interesting happening and since there's no indication of them going V/LA
(And thus clearly everyone that has posted so far must have an interesting role, QED you're all scum)

Let's not PR hunt

[Weuler]

UNVOTE: Arko and VOTE: Python

[Weuler]

Also VT read on Human Sequencer, it'd be odd to ignore a game if there's something interesting happening and since there's no indication of them going V/LA
(And thus clearly everyone that has posted so far must have an interesting role, QED you're all scum)

UNVOTE: Arko and VOTE: Python

Did that comment actually seem scummy to you?

No it seems like a comment from a newbie. Consider my vote an effort to discourage further PR-hunting.

[Weuler]

More formally:

Observation 1: Human Sequencer has posted in the past at specific times of day

Observation 2: Human Sequencer has not posted in this thread even at those specific times of day

Hypothesis 1: Something is preventing them from posting in this thread

Hypothesis 1a: RL is preventing them from seeing this thread -> Not posting is NAI

Hypothesis 1b: They have seen this thread and are choosing not to post -> Not posting is AI

Observation 3: This is not Human Sequencers first game (they're here as SE) -> They should know lurking is scummy behavior

Hypothesis 2: If they know lurking is scummy and they are scum, they would post so as to not seem scummy

Conclusion 1: If they are choosing not to post and they know lurking is scummy, it's because they are not interested -> They got a boring role (i.e. not scum and not PR)

Your conclusion only follows from 1b not 1a. The argument seems weak to me and I don't see how it warrants starting to discuss PRs

[Weuler]

VOTE: human
Clear scumslip knowing there are two town prs

I can't tell if you're joking but you might be onto something. I didn't actually look at the Newbie Setup until now but Options A and B have three chances at 2 town PRs. Option C only has one.

I think role hunting in any form is harmful right now. I don't even know if talking about the Newbie Setup is a good idea

So you talk about the newbie setup and then say talking about it isn't a good idea?

[Weuler]

My point was there were at most two PR's

A question to clarify: Did you know that not all possibilities contains 2 PR when you wrote the original post?

[Weuler]

Well I'm going to be honest yes, I just thought it was unnecessary wording

I guess the statement still makes sense if you write "at most". Still I don't really see why you wouldn't just write that

[Weuler]

I think human is town, what do you recon Weuler?
UNVOTE:

I would have liked it more if their explanation was that they thought all 9 scenarios had 2 PRs in them. Then their wording would have made more sense.

[Weuler]

I could definitely see them being newtown, but trying to figure out if newscum would act in the same way

[Weuler]

Well I'm going to be honest yes, I just thought it was unnecessary wording

I guess the statement still makes sense if you write "at most". Still I don't really see why you wouldn't just write that

I'm hella lazy as town

To me "there are 2" and "there are at most 2" are not at all the same thing. Human's other posts feels towny, but this just irks me. Possibly this is Human being "lazy town" as you say though.

[Weuler]

I am starting to wonder where our two missing friends are.

[Weuler]

@Aureal, what are your thoughts on Human? Do you think it was a slip or not?

[Weuler]

Well I'm going to be honest yes, I just thought it was unnecessary wording

I'm so paranoid already lol

This feels lamist

[Weuler]

Could also just be town

Is there anything in this game that doesn't have multiple interpretations?

[Weuler]

@Aureal, what are your thoughts on Human? Do you think it was a slip or not?

Aww, you don't think I was being serious with my solve?

I didn't and I'm still not sure if you are!

[Weuler]

Weuler read:
In Newbie 2109 as VT they make the first post of the game with

VOTE: CCGeek, obvious lurkscum. Haven't made a single post

Whereas in 52 this game they post

Weuler, can I persuade you to VOTE: Taly?

I prefer to vote for people who have made a post

Now obviously the first post is a joke, but I'm not sure it's a joke someone who prefers voting for people who've made a post would make. Might be hesitant to vote for Taly specifically?

Post 73:

Also VT read on Human Sequencer, it'd be odd to ignore a game if there's something interesting happening and since there's no indication of them going V/LA
(And thus clearly everyone that has posted so far must have an interesting role, QED you're all scum)

Let's not PR hunt

Post 74 they vote me and explain in post 78

UNVOTE: Arko and VOTE: Python

Did that comment actually seem scummy to you?

No it seems like a comment from a newbie. Consider my vote an effort to discourage further PR-hunting.

But if it's a scum!Weuler game they start PR hunting themselves in 119 by pushing this line of questioning

My point was there were at most two PR's

A question to clarify: Did you know that not all possibilities contains 2 PR when you wrote the original post?

UNVOTE: Elements
VOTE: Weuler

I'll try to answer this:

First the RVS vote: In this game my first RVS vote was on Elements for joke reasons. In my last games it was on CCG for joke reasons (I was the first who posted. What else would I post?) All subsequent votes in my last game was not due to joking around. My reason for not voting Taly is that they haven't made a single post for two days so I don't see how voting them is beneficial. They will probably just get force replaced soon.

Calling 119 PR hunting is just not true. I wanted to ask Human for clarification. Several people had already pointed out that not every scenario has 2 PRs.

[Weuler]

Further, if we take the idea that this truly was a scumslip, we have to consider how Human would even realize the setup, for a true newbie isn't so likely to have considered the ramifications of the setup chart.

That's precisely why I asked them to clarify in 119.

[Weuler]

Rest of the pages:

The interaction with Weuler about the wording is more interesting, though. After being imprecise with Black's post as I noted earlier, Weuler complains in 122 and 123 and then some more in 133 about Human's wording, almost like he's thinking Human really is going to go down for this and really doesn't want to be associated with it if actually scum partners. Asks me if I think it was a slip, and when I ask whether he thinks I was being serious he actually uses an exclamation point(!) to say he's not sure if I am when normally he hardly even uses punctuation- the only exclamation points used thus far are saying hello in his intro post.

This is just grasping at straws. As I remember it, nobody was really going after Human for their possible slip. The purpose of my questions was to get an idea of whether it was a slip or not. The exclamation point remark is just silly. I sometimes use an exclamation mark when I think it is appropriate, for greetings (as you point out), for conveying surprise (when I answered your question regarding your reads), and sometimes to convey to someone that I am taunting them.

[Weuler]

My vote on Python obviously doesn't belong there. I think UNVOTE: Python[/unvote ], VOTE: Aureal is not too bad of a choice. She begins the day relatively quietly, but then suddenly comes with these posts trying to force the scum pair Human/Me. I just don't see some of the points as being genuine analysis.

[Weuler]

UNVOTE: Python and VOTE: Aureal

[Weuler]

I think HS makes a solid entrance and with some interesting points

[Weuler]

I think Euler, Elements and Aureal are the most likely to flip scum.

Do I look like a Swiss mathematician to you?

[Weuler]

I'll try to answer this:

First the RVS vote: In this game my first RVS vote was on Elements for joke reasons. In my last games it was on CCG for joke reasons (I was the first who posted. What else would I post?) All subsequent votes in my last game was not due to joking around. My reason for not voting Taly is that they haven't made a single post for two days so I don't see how voting them is beneficial. They will probably just get force replaced soon.

Calling 119 PR hunting is just not true. I wanted to ask Human for clarification. Several people had already pointed out that not every scenario has 2 PRs.

The RVS was obviously a joke, my specific point was that I don't think someone who prefers voting for people who post would make that specific joke. Given that we know you were town in 2109 and that it was very clearly a joke being the first post in that game, the logical conclusion from that read would be that "you preferring to vote for people who post" is the part that's incorrect.

Ok I guess Human isn't the only one who does not write in a precise manner. The way I have usually played is that my first vote is usually a joke vote for some random reason, but then the subsequent votes have something to do with the game. For a serious vote I don't think voting for someone who has not posted is useful

[Weuler]

I could definitely see them being newtown, but trying to figure out if newscum would act in the same way

Further, if we take the idea that this truly was a scumslip, we have to consider how Human would even realize the setup, for a true newbie isn't so likely to have considered the ramifications of the setup chart.

That's precisely why I asked them to clarify in 119.

I don't follow the progression here, if you don't believe a newbie would consider the ramifications of the setup chart why would you see Human as being newtown?

Ok I think I misread Aureal's "ramifications of the setup chart" when I answered this post. I was focused on if they had noticed that there were two scenarios with VT or not, hence my answer. I see now that she is talking about the vertical reasoning.

Regarding Aureal's actual post: I definitely think that a newbie could come up with the vertical reasoning by themself. In fact I remember myself coming up with it before the first newbie game I played, when reading through the setup.

[Weuler]

To give some other remarks:

1. I had actually forgotten that the setup could include only 1 PR. All my previous games has included 2 PRs. This was why I made post [p]119[/p] because I thought that human had maybe made the same mistake.

2. Element's initial mention that Human had made a scum slip made me tunnel vision that the "slip" could only come from scum. This was also probably in part because I had not yet realised that this could be a slip at all, see point 1.

[Weuler]

Also, hi STD!

[Weuler]

I think human is town

I like weuler and arko for scum at this point. Weuler made jokes all throught the first few pages of the newbie game that was brought up. It's weird theyre not funny here it was something I noticed

Arko just has that big scum energy

Page 7 solve

If we are starting to analyse jokes, then please don't miss my 220 from yesterday

[Weuler]

My time is running out before I need to work so I will just leave with this remark. Unless other people also missed the PR possibility then why are they still suspicous of human?

[Weuler]

I'm not really sure what's going on with elements. I didn't get this chaotic impression from 2108

[Weuler]

This just seems weird both from a town!!elements and a scum!!elements (note the double negation @Aureal) perspective

[Weuler]

I'm not really sure what's going on with elements. I didn't get this chaotic impression from 2108

You didn't?

No I got a more authorative "town leader" impression

[Weuler]

I want to UNVOTE: for now because I think after Elements vote on herself she's at e-2. Discussion is picking up and I don't think the Day should end yet

Do you think elements might get quickhammered? The ele wagon just started

[Weuler]

Btw @Human, my name is neither Weular, nor Wueler

[Weuler]

Python's iso is wild. Not necessarily in a scummy or towny way though, but it's probably something worth analysing.

[Weuler]

Python's iso is wild. Not necessarily in a scummy or towny way though, but it's probably something worth analysing.

So you're getting a null read on his iso but it's wild? Can you elaborate?

I didn't say it was a null read. I feel like the posts indicate something, but I'm not sure what (or is this what a null read is?). The point is that looking through Python's iso, I see someome playing very mechanically, using a lot of logic and reviewing meta. Now, at a first glance this could be e.g. 1. Playstyle 2. Scum trying to not engage with the game in a more relaxed maanner. 3. Newtown?

I tried to use some logic myself in my last game, but the thing with Python was that almost every single post felt mechanically logical.

[Weuler]

(the roles are probably listed by the mod in the PT even without sharing with each other, from what I can see of previous mafia PTs from newbie games)

Is there a specific reason you double checked the format of a mafia PT from previous games? The exact mechanics of how mafia know their partner and roles don't seem to be that important given that the end result is the same and you don't strike me as the type of person to be this diligent about this type of stuff.

Because your comment made me curious as it hadn't even occurred to me that scum possibly wouldn't know their partner's role without sharing. Oddly, some of the non newbie threads did not give any info about roles at the start and they didn't share with each other either, though they could've gotten the info in their role PM. And it wouldn't have the same ramifications on the game as a newbie game with the set chart used here. (Ironically I did recently read an old game of mine where we apparently didn't bother to tell our teammates our cool roles, though we only got to talk at night in PMs back then)

And I totally am the kind of person who's diligent about this stuff.

Elements and Weuler, you two played with Aureal in Newbie 2108. Do you think this is a scumslip?

What is the supposed slip?

[Weuler]

What is the supposed slip?

She knew that mafia PT lists the names and roles of all mafia members despite every game she's finished having her as VT (Namely Newbie 2108 and Micro 1068)

Ok that's not really a

slip

. Anyway, Aureal from 2108 did look up things from other games. For example she looked up Charles's play history.

[Weuler]

Ok that's not really a

slip

.

Can you elaborate on this? Do you consider knowing the structure of a mafia PT having never been scum to not be a slip by itself or is it that you don't consider it to be a slip coming from Aureal because you have experience with her checking past games?

She explained why she knew the structure in the post. So it isn't a slip.

[Weuler]

I am going to re-evaluate my vote when I have time later today

[Weuler]

Reading through Aureal's iso I don't really get a scum vibe. My earlier complaints about an argument being pulled from thin air can make sense from TownAureal being very focused on the scum pair Human/Weuler and seeing scum signs when there aren't any. I think a scumAureal could have pushed harder during the Weuler wagon. If her goal was just to lim a townie, then she could at least have voted me when the wagon started picking up.

[Weuler]

UNVOTE: Aureal

[Weuler]

There are other people I want to take a look at. In particular, Python and some of the inactive people, but that will probably need to wait until tomorrow.

[Weuler]

Theorem: 1+1=2
Proof: Let s denote the successor function. By definition 1 =s(0). Now, by definition of addition, 1+1=1+s(0)=s(1+0). Again, by definition of addition, 1+0=1, whence s(1+0)=s(1), which is equal to 2 by definition. QED

Is this analysis rigorous enough for you Python?

[Weuler]

In previous games, I have had some success in scumhunting by finding the player with the most "neutral-looking" iso. At least some people seem to turn into neutral observers whenever they get a scum role, where they spend most of the game asking other people questions or commenting on things happening without analysing it.

[Weuler]

Now, Python's posts does give of a bit of a neutralish, logical, air. Still there is analysis being done, even though I doubt the validity of some of it

[Weuler]

I think you make a good point, black really gives me sheeping vibes. I'm also not a big fan of some of their posts, in particular 127 just seems forced and lamist.

I think some pressure is in order VOTE: black

[Weuler]

Freedom, one of the few things your predecessor did was to townread black, what do you think about that read?

[Weuler]

I like that Python's recent post does not appear to be written by a logical computer

[Weuler]

Some thoughts about the inactives (or previously inactives)

Arko: Aside from a few brief reads he hasn't really contributed at all. In 2108 a scum did something similar, promising reads "soon" every time they posted. I really don't like this.

Freedom/HS: HS townread Human and Black, cast suspicion on Aureal, Elements, and me then disappeared. Not sure how to interpret that. I expected a bit more from HS's successor, and I hope they provide some more of their thoughts soon.

[Weuler]

Some thoughts about the inactives (or previously inactives)

Arko: Aside from a few brief reads he hasn't really contributed at all. In 2108 a scum did something similar, promising reads "soon" every time they posted. I really don't like this.

Freedom/HS: HS townread Human and Black, cast suspicion on Aureal, Elements, and me then disappeared. Not sure how to interpret that. I expected a bit more from HS's successor, and I hope they provide some more of their thoughts soon.

But I'm the candidate you chose to pressure? Seems convenient to do so right after someone else expresses suspicion. I mean you jumped on that

Arko is getting prodded so no point in pressuring there, but if he does another prod dodge I may consider it. Freedom replaced in relatively recently. Is the pressure getting to you?

[Weuler]

I think you make a good point, black really gives me sheeping vibes. I'm also not a big fan of some of their posts, in particular 127 just seems forced and lamist.

I think some pressure is in order VOTE: black

Accusing me of sheeping while actively sheeping. Can you elaborate?

I'm sheeping? I wasn't even sure that Python wanted to actually vote you when I voted for you. His post reminded me of my earlier suspicions of you, see my earlier posts, and I think you've been flying under the radar for a while.

[Weuler]

No, but I don't get it. What are you two trying to pressure me to do?

Are you asking if votes have a purpose other than for limming?

[Weuler]

I am not complaining about your lack of posts.

[Weuler]

I am not complaining about your lack of posts.

So you are pressuring me to post more content then?

Put our iso's side by side and tell me honestly who you think has provided more content this game

Let me clarify: I am not complaining about any apparent lack of posting, because I think you have made plenty of posts.

[Weuler]

No, but I don't get it. What are you two trying to pressure me to do?

Are you asking if votes have a purpose other than for limming?

You want to lim Black over StD or Freedom?

That remains to be seen, there is still lots of daytime left

[Weuler]

Ignore 509, I misread black's post.

[Weuler]

Weuler being about as clear as mud here. Are you saying you're trying to start a wagon on Black, but one that will not actually eliminate her yet but could at a later date?

Yes, I want to gauge black's reactions for now.

[Weuler]

No, but I don't get it. What are you two trying to pressure me to do?

Are you asking if votes have a purpose other than for limming?

You want to lim Black over StD or Freedom?

That remains to be seen, there is still lots of daytime left

If we had to lim right now, who would you want it to be?

One of STD, You, Arko or Black. Do you want me to specify further?

[Weuler]

Definitely not Arko because he's being prodded. I need to look into STD more. So right now, you or Black. Probably you, because I did not at all like your chaotic acting earlier, followed by what I perceived to be a sudden drop in activity

[Weuler]

Definitely not Arko because he's being prodded. I need to look into STD more. So right now, you or Black. Probably you, because I did not at all like your chaotic acting earlier, followed by what I perceived to be a sudden drop in activity

Give StD another read through and tell me how any of it is town

Yep, that is one odd iso. Started out with some reads and then decided to hyperfocus on you. Could a townie do this? Perhaps if they are convinced you are scum, but then I don't see why they aren't trying to push harder in that case.

[Weuler]

@Python do you think STD and Elements is an impossible scum team?

[Weuler]

I wasn't asking you, but why is that clear?

[Weuler]

In my latest game STD and another player, AV, was the scum team. AV spent most of their time trying to convince people to lim std

[Weuler]

Ok I wouldn't call that "very clearly". I was asking if it was impossible not unlikely.

I am just making the observation that you are pushing to lim someone who you are currently the only one voting for. That brings up the possibility that you my not even think that they can realistically get limmed

[Weuler]

Also and mostly because I'm town

Ah your argument was just a townslip, I see

[Weuler]

I was going to write more, but I don't have the time, so I will summarise.

First, I don't think that Black is suspicious enough to lim d1. I was hoping that some more pressure on him could make him crack and strengthen the case, but it seems like the rest of you aren't too keen on that, except for Python. I think that Black can be a good candidate for d2 if he sticks around, as there is more information available then

[Weuler]

The day is starting to run out and we do not want a rushed lim at the end of the day. Worst case scenario, our first push is a PR (happened in 2108) and then we need time to find a suitable new limee.

To the people voting for Arko: Are you willing to lim him d1 for being inactive? If not then switch your votes to someone you do want to lim.

[Weuler]

I think both Elements and STD are good targets for elimination. Let's see how serious Ele is about his sr on std.

UNVOTE: Black
VOTE: STD

[Weuler]

Sorry about that

[Weuler]

I think both Elements and STD are good targets for elimination. Let's see how serious Ele is about his sr on std.

UNVOTE: Black
VOTE: STD

Gooood gooood, join us
(also, not a he)

Us? You are the only one voting std

[Weuler]

Or are you referring to your and STD's cross-vote?

[Weuler]

Literally your entire case against me is I'm not playing mafia how you think I should be playing. You're even making stuff up in your head to convince yourself I'm scummy like I spend time perfecting my posts and I moved on to easier targets. You're tunneling and it is blinding you

I haven't read up yet but I feel like this is a good point.
TBH maybe it's just that I've seen TvT playstyle clashes happen a lot, but I'm never going to vote Black or python unless there's a hard guilty.

What does a hard guilty look like? Someone admitting they're scum?

[Weuler]

I think both Elements and STD are good targets for elimination. Let's see how serious Ele is about his sr on std.

UNVOTE: Black
VOTE: STD

VOTE: freedom

Not that serious I guess

[Weuler]

I think both Elements and STD are good targets for elimination. Let's see how serious Ele is about his sr on std.

UNVOTE: Black
VOTE: STD

Gooood gooood, join us
(also, not a he)

Us? You are the only one voting std

I was going for Darth Sideous

I don't think Darth Sidious ever said the "us" part

[Weuler]

I think both Elements and STD are good targets for elimination. Let's see how serious Ele is about his sr on std.

UNVOTE: Black
VOTE: STD

VOTE: freedom

Not that serious I guess

I was waiting for you to say this

Well, there you go. What made you go from not seeing any way that STD is town, to voting someone else?

[Weuler]

I think the scum team is StD Freedom
I hadn't moved my vote in a while so I thought I'd move it

Are they the scum team by virtue of both being the scummiest, or by the interaction between them together with scumminess?

[Weuler]

Like they were a lot more driven and logical in the game I just played with them. More jokey too. Here they seem like "let's see what happens when I do this" and stiff and reserved

May I ask you to take a look at mid-late d1 weuler from our previous game? My irl situation is about the same right now as it was then

[Weuler]

VOTE: Human

Do you think Human has similar vibes to Cactus had?

Do you?

[Weuler]

VOTE: Human

Do you think Human has similar vibes to Cactus had?

Do you?

I can see similarities to day 2 cactus but I am wondering if it's because both their pfps are green

Ah I never got to experience d2 cactus thanks to certain people

I don't find d1 cactus and human to be alike at all

[Weuler]

I'm liking the Meg slot so far and I think Arko's behaviour was NAI

[Weuler]

On the other hand, this situation feels a bit familiar...

[Weuler]

Freedom/HS: HS townread Human and Black, cast suspicion on Aureal, Elements, and me then disappeared. Not sure how to interpret that. I expected a bit more from HS's successor, and I hope they provide some more of their thoughts soon.

Well I can't say this has happened

[Weuler]

@Elements, Freedom's and STD's iso gives me similar vibes. I note that in my earlier games, the two scum players have given off quite different vibes

[Weuler]

Great to see some wagons in action

[Weuler]

i'm vt

Why did you rr without any intent to hammer?

[Weuler]

i'm vt

Why did you rr without any intent to hammer?

why not

Because it gives everyone an incentive to hammer you to avoid revealing a PR

[Weuler]

In my experience living people are better at leading than dead people

[Weuler]

I have no idea when I did the things on your list @black

[Weuler]

I have no idea when I did the things on your list @black

Ok nvm I was reading your python list apparently

[Weuler]

1. black is scum with weuler
2. black is scum with elements
3. black is town

black is more likely to be scum????

Didn't you know every probability distribution is uniform?

[Weuler]

i figured it would be good to let town know i'm not a PR so killing me is fine if they so choose.

I don't see how this makes sense. If you are town, then you are saying that you want to make it easier for town to eliminate you, instead of pursuing another wagon?

[Weuler]

What StD is doing is certainly weird but I still think Weuler is a better bet

What is weird?

[Weuler]

Weuler walk me through your thought process for keeping your vote on STD instead of switching to Elements as the deadline started creeping up as Elements got off the STD wagon (so from around 654 to around 726)

I was fine with either of them getting eliminated and I still thought STD was a good choice. I should say that I still feel like an elements lim could be good, but right now it is probably to late during the day to switch.

[Weuler]

I really liked my conversation with STD from yesterday (i.e. 12 hours ago). His responses didn't feel artificial. My highest scumreads are still Elements/STD but STD is now second on that list

[Weuler]

I'm sorry I had no idea if you guys would come to a consensus when I went to sleep probably should've just hammered in the morning but I was tired and now I don't know why I was thinking that

I can't parse this. What are you trying to say?

[Weuler]

My plan was to go after Elements if STD flips red, but I'm not sure how to interpret the Elements hammer

[Weuler]

Looks like I was wrong about their partner, but for now I think this is a good vote
VOTE: Elements

[Weuler]

Now to make sense of Element's hammer

[Weuler]

A brief analysis of the hammer:

TownElements: She said she would rather get STD than me, so from that perspective the hammer isn't too weird. Especially if she was thinking that Human might move away his vote.

ScumElements: One reason for not hammering me instead of STD is that I was also pushing the STD wagon. Hence, STD flipping green would mean that I would be the prime suspect D2. On the other hand, if she hammered me, then this would not really implicate STD, so a hammer on STD could be a way to get 2 townlims with a high probability.

NAI analysis: My read of elements is that she is the type of player that prefers to drop the hammer herself. Then if she suspects both me and STD, hammering STD could be nicer than letting Meg hammer me.

[Weuler]

The scum reasons aren't really that convincing. For now
UNVOTE: Elements

This is only for the hammer though. I might change my mind when I read through her iso again, I recall there being quite a few things I didn't like

[Weuler]

Looks like I was wrong about their partner, but for now I think this is a good vote
VOTE: Elements

I'm not really sure any votes right now are good. It only takes 4 to lim and there are still two scum running around. I feel like it's really important to take our time and make sure we get it right today

Without votes there is no pressure

[Weuler]

I don't really like Human's panicking before the lim yesterday. They have been solidly sitting on my townlist for some time, but that might need to change. I made the mistake of strongly townreading scum in my last game

[Weuler]

Nobody is getting quickhammered on D2. Scum would just lose come D3

[Weuler]

Ah ok. Yeah, this is a really important vote.

My strongest TRs are Aureal and Human. Python's slot still confuses the heck out of me, somehow scummy and townie at the same time. Freedom's inactivity was sus but he got replaced so that's probably NAI, and furtive is already posting valuable content. I keep going back and forth on Elements and Weuler this game but if I had to guess... that's our scum team

What is scummy about Python?

[Weuler]

Why are people confused about Elements hammering? She was going after Dragons basically all day.

Yeah, but then she unvoted, and then later returned to hammer

[Weuler]

So??? Do people actually think that her naked vote for Black was somehow meant to mean that she really wanted to eliminate Black instead there?

I guess I was holding onto feelings from D1. I was quite confident in my Elements/STD scum team, so from that perspective the hammer was unexpected. That's also why I made my recent analysis post to sort my thoughts out.

[Weuler]

I feel like I have let at least one scum get onto my townlist

[Weuler]

You've known for two days that that couldn't be the scum team. Feels kind of performative to vote then unvote shortly afterwards over it.

I sort of felt like this was the expected course of action at the end of day yesterday and that made me more wary of it, but with all the confTown suspicious of him I'll go ahead and VOTE: Weuler

The last part feels like you're dumping responsibility for the vote on other people. Also since when do we have conftowns?

[Weuler]

Ah, the phrasing made me think you were referring to someone who was still alive

[Weuler]

Also I can't remember if I answered your remark, but I like to play the game one step at a time

[Weuler]

An E-1 and the day has barely begun?

[Weuler]

I think the arguments about Human's scum capabilities are very odd

[Weuler]

claim or I hammer

I am VT

[Weuler]

I want to point out that we lack information from the Furtive slot. If this day ends prematurely, then our mission tomorrow will be much harder

[Weuler]

If you flip me, then head for Elements next. Preferably after a longer day, where you can try to find his partner.

[Weuler]

Actually a tip from my last game: Don't look too closely at interactions between elements and other people to instantly rule out pairs. Better to lim the scummiest remainong player. But at that point you will have no room for error

[Weuler]

I want to point out that we lack information from the Furtive slot. If this day ends prematurely, then our mission tomorrow will be much harder

What more information can I give you?

Just general information about your playstyle, how your interactions look etc. Makes it easier to see if any odd change has occured come D3

[Weuler]

If you flip me, then head for Elements next. Preferably after a longer day, where you can try to find his partner.

Why aren't you voting for Elements? And why are they your main suspect?

They were my biggest suspect D1. I am not voting because I didn't anticipate that the day would possibly end so fast, and I still need time to sit down and look at ISO:s. Probably not something I will have time to do today either

[Weuler]

Actually a tip from my last game: Don't look too closely at interactions between elements and other people to instantly rule out pairs. Better to lim the scummiest remainong player. But at that point you will have no room for error

Also don't rush when you have no room for miselims. Seems obvious but that's why we lost the last game I played

[Weuler]

Sorry for not using the correct pronouns.

[Weuler]

VOTE: Elements

[Weuler]

Btw I think it may have been overlooked that the order in which we lim people matters a lot. First, unless we are in the last column, mafia has a night ability that is annoying. E.g. in col 1, a blocked tracker can mean the difference between us getting an easy lim or not. In col 2, mafia finding the FN (thanks to my rr this would not be too hard) could make a potentially hard ELO trivial.

[Weuler]

Most important of all: if we mislim today, then tomorrow we will be in 3v2 which sucks. A single wrong vote loses the game.

[Weuler]

Tomorrow I will take a closer look at my townie pile, but also at the furtive slot. At least so far, I think I like furtive more than their predecessors but we'll see

[Weuler]

Wow what happened today

[Weuler]

Regarding my meta: 2108 was my first game in a very long time. People hated my play on that game and I got limmed d1, so I tried to reinvent my playstyle for 2109.

In 2109 I found some good leads that I could pursue (none of them lead to the scum though ). Still I got limmed in the end and we lost. All my analysis was essentially wrong (I only found the scum team in the end because there were only 2 possibilities left). So for this game I have abandoned this more aggressive playstyle, at least until I find a good lead

[Weuler]

Also I am voting cat because of Element's weird hammer threat yesterday. In the moment I was concerned with writing stuff before being limmed, but now I realize that threat just doesn't make sense. Seems like scum anxious to get to 2v3.

[Weuler]

Also I didn't like how Arko and Freedom played the furtive slot. I mentioned D1 that I didn't like this slot, and I am wondering whether this is a scum slot that has ended up in more capable hands now

[Weuler]

Have any of you analyzed other newbie games that Weuler played in Meta from one game can be fairly unreliable

I played 2108 with Aureal (and Elements)

[Weuler]

Cat feels more towny than elements, but I'm wary about replacements to suspected slots, as it seems like replacing in has a tendency to clear any slot.

[Weuler]

Also I didn't like how Arko and Freedom played the furtive slot. I mentioned D1 that I didn't like this slot, and I am wondering whether this is a scum slot that has ended up in more capable hands now

Just want to quickly point out that Arko was not that slot, it became Meg.

Right thanks for pointing that out. Got confused between Arko, Freedom and HS because all of them seemed scummy

[Weuler]

I think Cat's analysis comes from a town perspective. I scumread the slot initially because Elements was acting very chaotically, but looking back at 2108 I could see this being town. The vote on me is still weird, but we won't get an explanation of that now. And possibly it might have to do with Element's "nonfunctional mafia brain" as she described it herself, especially considering the relatively quick replacement.

[Weuler]

When I look at what's happened today, I see Cat exploring and hunting scum, while Furtive's reads are set in stone. I just don't see town acting like Furtive at all. Together with the play from HS and Freedom I am quite certain that I should
VOTE: Furtive

[Weuler]

Well see the post after that one, and the fact that scumCat could just sit back and enjoy a 2v3 D3.

[Weuler]

Nice job Black, you were amazingly good at appearing towny