Newbie 1252: The Other Game Town Wins!

[Zorblag]

Good day everyone.

My name is Zorblag, though you're welcome to call me any of Zorblag, Zorb, Zor, Z or Troll. I'm largely retired from playing mafia but I like to replace into a newbie game every now and then when I've got the time. This game looked interesting and I've got the time so now you've got me in the game. I know a number of you this time around so it's good to see familiar faces and good to meet those of you who are new. If you've got any questions about my experience I'll encourage you to take a look at my wiki page (link at the bottom of my posts) which has a record of most of my previous games broken down by team. Beyond that you're welcome to ask any questions you'd like and I'll try to answer them.

I have skimmed the game from page 10 on so I've got some idea what's going on here and the first thing that I need to do is confirm that

I am indeed the doctor

, but I don't know who TheHossaim protected last night because Elmo TeH AzN didn't provide Nobody Special with that information. When Elmo TeH AzN gets back I'll be able to tell you what my night action was. There's really no reason for me to hold back the information about who TheHossaim protected once I get it as that won't give scum any indication about who I might protect so it is my plan to share it once I've got it.

From what I've read it seems pretty likely that Robocopter87 and Majiffy are town. There's lots of active presence and what I thought were legitimate attempts to move the game forward. Scum could fake those things but they don't have to, and especially in a game with a number of inactive players I expect such actions to be much more likely to come from town.

My biggest concerns at this point are 194, nhammen and (sadly) Rach Marie. From my first read-through my impression was that 194 was doing much more reacting to comments that came up about him than looking at other players to try to figure out who was scum. The lurking issue and reactions to it I'll talk about a bit later, but I need to go back and give 194's posts a better reading. nhammen largely failed to make an impression while I was reading through the game the first time. He wasn't brought up as being suspect but he wasn't doing all that much. If I were scum I'd love to be in that sort of position and I'd probably play the game in a manner very similiar to what he's done. Rach Marie just hasn't been able to be a presence at all since joining. She's gotten next to no pressure for it (which is pretty unacceptable) and while I do recognize that it's legitimate RL reasons that are keeping her from engaging that does nothing to make here any more likely to be town than scum. We just don't have nearly enough information to work with there and that's going to have to change.

That leaves Fujiko who I didn't really form a strong opinion about. It seemed like I saw more from her than nhammen or Rach Marie, but I need to go back and give her a good read to form a stronger opinion and see what contributions to the game we've actually had.

For now I'm going to go with my first impressions and
VOTE: 194
but I owe you a better set of reasons, so expect them to come within the next couple days (or maybe I'll change my mind and my vote after doing more reading.)

I've got a couple of events today that are going to take up my time but I should be around for good chunks of the day tomorrow so I plan to be fully caught up with the game and have a better defined set of opinions by tomorrow evening.

If anyone would like to ask me any questions or bring anything in particular to my attention I'd be happy to respond to the best of my ability. I won't be able to tell you what TheHossaim was thinking about anything, but I can give you my best guess.

@Majiffy, I'm pretty sure that you're town and appreciate the effort that you're making here, but we're going to have to talk about the reasons for your current vote. You fully acknowledge that inexperienced scum would be likely to take out active experienced players and power roles, but seem to have decided that it wouldn't make sense for them to have gone for Thor665 when there was a claimed doc in the game. I'd argue that TheHossaim was a claimed power role in a particularly week position who couldn't actually do anything on his own to find scum whereas Thor665 was an experienced, aggressive player who would be a bigger threat to the scum team if he were left alive. Even inexperienced scum would have a decent chance of recognizing that leaving a player like TheHossaim alive is going to have a good chance of leading to their lynch the following day. I don't think that it's at all unreasonable that a scum team would pass on that night kill in order to take out a bigger perceived threat and hope that the town would take care of the PR kill for them the next day for free. Had they knocked off TheHossaim during the night it's not particularly clear to me who the next biggest target would have been, but by leaving him they guaranteed that a town player was the one wearing the big bullseye in the day game going into day two.

@Rach Marie, I know that you care about these mafia games and would hate to replace out. I also know that you're going through busy times right now. The sleep aphnea thing is rough (though it's much better to know if you have it so that you can start doing whatever needs to be done to get better sleep), and I wish you all the best as you handle the next rounds of tests. I know that you've got at least one current newbie game in which you're an IC and that you're modding at least one game. If your time committment is hitting the wall at this point unfortunately I'll argue that it would be better for the game if you sought a replacement now than if you continued playing at the level of input that you've been playing. If you're town you're not having the time to make the contributions you'd like to (and that I know you could.) If you're scum you're getting away with murder here, but not in a way that I think you'd particularly like to. For the rest of the game the lack of information about you is definitely detrimental in terms of the reads that people can form and isn't a good example of what we want people to learn to expect from a newbie game.

If you've got time to actually play the game from here on out that'll be great! You being in the game was one of the draws for me. If not then I'd argue that you'll be the same sort of drag on the game that Elmo TeH AzN was in the last game we played together (Newbie Game 1222 for anyone interested; though we just interacted in the quick topic for the dead in that one.) I know we ended up winning but we played the whole thing essentially down a player up till the end.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

So I've read through Rach Marie's iso and compared it to the iso that I had in the other game I've played with her. This one is better than I thought when I first read through it (she is actually saying a little more about people than I thought) but it still doesn't look like the sort of clear pro-town play that I saw in Newbie Game 1222. There's perhaps more Thor is Thor (though that matches the Elmo is Elmo) and bringing up the Robocopter87-Majjify dust-up than there is other comments on what makes players look like scum or town to her. It feels like more of statements of what's pretty obvious/sticking with stances than trying to figure things out. Is there any reason that others haven't been putting more pressure on her other than that she hasn't been around much?

Looking over nhammen's posts in iso I see that I missed more content from him at the start of the game because I jumped in around page 10. His early game feels pretty good to me even if there's a bit more commenting on what's being said then there is drawing conclusions (though there's reason to think that the conclusions were being drawn and simply not stated explicitly given posts later which pretty clearly have reads on most of the players in the game.) I'm less worried about nhammen being scum laregly lying low than I was yesterday.

Fujiko's early game is really classic for someone trying to get used to play here and what you've got to do to participate. It's a bit cautious but I don't think that's an alignment tell for a new player as much as a personality tell. Later on I see a couple things that make me think she's town (the timing of a question or two, the overall attitude in terms of information she's interested in, etc.) It's possible that she's just a strong scum player from the the go but right now she's reading much more like new town to me.

I need to take a closer look at Majiffy and Robocopter87 (and in particular Maffiy I think) but right now that's daunting so instead I'm going to go with a case on 194 instead.

Here's what I've got from day one:

We've got a fairly unwaivering town read on Robocopter87 from his first post in the game. It is possible that 194 is picking up on town vibes and running with it the whole time (perhaps even with some confirmation bias in there) but scum know alignments and it's easier for them to keep consistent opinions. In this case it would be a mild case of buddying.

Actually, that combined with the idea that the main reason that he'd buddy robocopter87 is if they were partners bit from Post 285 is one of the things that makes me nervous. 194 claims to prefer playing scum because he's "had great games playing under that alignment." (Post 22.) I leery of anyone with experience playing scum in multiple games (even offsite) trying to make that argument. I can't imagine a setting in which the only players scum buddy up with are team-mates.

We have reasons along the way that robocopter87 is town which is nice in and of itself, but there really aren't any reasons outside lurking that 194 seems to be worried about people being scum. Lurking is something we need to pressure people to avoid, but it's also a really safe arguement to make. You're not going to get into a fight with someone and draw attention to yourself by accusing them of lurking. Used as part of an overall attempt to scum hunt and you've got pro-town activity. When it's the only sort of case that's really being made against people it seems much more like scum trying to look active without taking any stances that'll come back to hurt them later.

The early vote for RXK actually would have been a nice place to bring up some reasons along those lines; as it was it comes accross as following popular sentiment rather than an attempt to find scum.

There's probably as much responding to Thor665 as anything else content-wise in 194's play. The responses are fine as a defense (town have times when they need to defend themselves as just like scum do if they're under pressure,) but there's a failure to express any new views about suspicions along the way. There's even a reference to nhammen's defending 194, but all we get out of it is a null read (Post 373 at the end of it. There should be more reads than robocopter87 is town by this stage in the game.

I actually have a bit of an issue to talk about with day two play in general and 194 is a central part of it, but I'll leave that there for now. If anyone would like to comment on it they're welcome to. I just don't see the aspects of 194's play that makes me think he'd be likely to be town that I do from Fujiko or nhammen. At this point I like my vote where it is.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

So here's my issue with Day 2 so far. I know that I'm the doctor and that TheHossaim claimed it yesterday. I'm still alive today for a reason. To oversimplify slightly, either the scum didn't believe the claim (that's pretty unlikely,) they had other things to worry about than a doctor (in which case it'd be Thor665 as he was the kill,) or they figured that TheHossaim was in a weak enough position at the start of Day 2 that they'd have a fair chance of letting the town kill him without needing to use a night kill of their own. It could be a possibility of those but they're the main things that are likely to have been going through scum heads.

No matter which of the three (or which combination of parts of the three) was the case, its almost inconceivable to me that there wouldn't be one member of the scum team that was pushing the lynch on TheHossaim right from the start of the day. In fact, if both members of the scum team were around and active I'd highly suspect that one of them said they were going to jump right on the wagon from the start and push and that the other was going to hang around and take a read of the situation, maybe planning to defend TheHossaim later and try to get credit for trying to prevent a lynch of the doctor. The only way that there wouldn't be at least one scum voting for TheHossaim early day two was if both scum were inactive or the one who said they were going to get on the wagon was inactive towards the start of the day and it wouldn't look good for them to jump on the wagon when they had a chance.

The players that have voted for TheHossaim today have been robocopter87, 194 and Majjify. Rach Marie, it's worth noting, did post early in Day 2 to day that she would be V/LA. She would have known that was coming up I suspect and thus if she's scum she wouldn't have been the partner who was supposed to be on the TheHossaim wagon early. Fujiko and nhammen were both on and cast votes other places early; they'd almost certainly given the game thought during the first night so they wouldn't have been the scum that was supposed to get an early vote on TheHossaim. And that's everyone left in the game other than TheHossaim.

At least one (and probably exactly one) of 194, Majiffy and robocopter87 is likely to be scum. We probably also have one scum in the Fujiko, nhammen, Rach Marie group.

In the first group robocopter bailed on the vote sooner than I think he should have if he were scum. Town need to change their reads as they actually change and should be more likely to be flexible; it looks to me like that's what robocopter87 is doing. Majjify is making a case based on night kill stuff that I don't think quite makes sense but I don't think that's an alignment tell. He is pushing much harder than 194 though for what that's worth. Personally, as scum I wouldn't push a case in this situation as I'd know that I'd be proven wrong shortly, but I play a pretty low-key scum game anyhow as long as I'm able to. It's entirely possible that it's confirmation bias at this point but of the three (even ignoring everything from day one) I find the most likely scum play to be coming from 194; he's still not giving strong arguments but is early on what should be an easy, popular wagon for scum, he shows up right when the day starts to cast that vote and then there's no real push that comes with it so he's not going to be blamed when TheHossaim fips doctor at the end of the day.

The second group is trickier. Rach Marie's play could easily be coming from town and I know she's busy; like I said, if she's scum she's the one that would hang around and not make an early "decision" on the TheHossaim wagon. nahmmen and Fujiko both come out swinging against players that don't surprise me based on day one play. If either is scum I think that there's some chance that there's distancing being done here with a partner, but I don't know how necessary that is as I don't think that there was huge pressure on either 194 or Majjify with Thor665 dead.

Oh, and one last thing to throw out; if there was any player most likely to benefit from Thor665 being out of the game my guess is that it's 194. There was some attention thrown at him from elsewhere, but Thor665 was probably the most likely one to bring on pressure later and make a strong case. Night kill speculation on it's own isn't a great idea, but in this case I'm going to claim that it fits so nicely with everything else that I'm seeing that I think there's a very decent chance that Thor665 was killed at least in part to take pressure off 194.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

OK, for what it's worth TheHossaim protected Fujiko last night. Welcome back Elmo ThE AzN! Thanks for the backukp modding Nobody Special!

Past that it's 5:30 in the morning here and I'm going back to bed for a bit. I'll have some questions to ask later this morning.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

OK, I've now taken the time to look more carefully at robocopter87 and Majjify in isolation. I'm pretty convinced that robocopter87 should be town now. In fact, I'm more willing to believe that 194 might have thought so right from the start even if they're town (though the points about the buddying comment and the lack of cases on potential scum outside of lurking still stand.) Robocopter87 is making things happen and interested in the entire game throughout even as he's getting called anti-town and drawing flak. That's play that you should see from town who are less concerned about living than information; he made himself way too big a target to make me think scum play.

Majiffy, on the other hand, comes out less town-feeling than I was expecting him to. There are lots of posts and he definitely interacts with lots of people, but his overall tone feels much more as though it's interaction for the sake of interaction in many cases (rather than interaction in pursuit of scum.) The adherence to a town 194 is troubling in the same sort of way that adherence on 194 to a town robocopter87 used to be to me, but in this case it's based on pretty scant information based on what Majiffy has to work with and I don't see any efforts to reassess despite statements that reads that early in the game will solidify with pages and flips (Post 299.)

At this point I'm happier with the 194 lynch, but I'm much less sold on a Majjify town than I was after my skim of pages 11-20ish.

@nhammen, could you lay out your Majjify case for me in nice simple points so that I can see why you were thinking that's where the vote should be. I've largely got it but I want to see what your biggest points are right now.

@Majjify, is it still mostly gut for 194? Can you point to stretches of pro-town play or at least provide pro-town motivation for the play that we've got to counter what I'm seeing as scum motivation? Also, what's your take on my assumptions about day two play by a scum team in which they're leaving a claimed doctor who was at L-1 the previous day alive? Am I painting a reasonable picture there?

@Fujiko, if RachMarie continued to post as she has (reasons for not providing content or statements that she has to go look at things but not look at them) when do you think she should be lynched? Today? LyLo? Never because there will be others who you have a better feel for as scummy? It seems like you've got her listed as about null right now which is fine as there's not much to go on, but how long are you willing to let someone stay at that read in a game like this?

@194, what's the biggest thing that I'm not seeing when I make my case against you? Why should I think that you're town at this point and who's the better choice to focus on? Even better, ignore my case on you and make a stunning case on someone else in the game that convinces me that you're scum hunting and getting it right! Or if it's on me convince everyone else so that I can see that you're trying to find scum and how you're going about it.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Strong town points for nhammen's start to Post 520. I can't quote the PM that I sent him, but when I got news from Nobody Special that he didn't know who I had protected night one I told him that it was probably for the best and that I could try to make that help my doctor claim look stronger because of the way that I had to delay things. The timing that actually happened here was that I didn't get a message from Elmo TeH AzN yesterday despite seeing him on so I sent him a PM asking for my night actions yesterday evening. He replied over the night and I posted first thing in the morning when I got it in a way that was intended to try to make me look as townie as possible based on the timing. Town who's worried about a claim are much more likely to look into timings for that sort of thing than scum who already know that I'm a doctor (well, or at least town.) This is a strong reason to think that nhammen is town who cares about who's scum.

@nhammen, that's simple enough. It's also largely what I thought. I guess it's worth pointing out that Majjify said the following to Thor665 who was on 194's case at the time:

Essentially gut, but with a blend of his line of thinking. I'm not seeing scum there, I'm sorry. And as long as both of us are alive, I will fight you tooth and nail over 194's lynch.

That's pretty strong defense of 194 (or at least a promise of it should the issue come up more), perhaps along the lines of the defense of robocopter87 that you were seeing? Does that change anything for you?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

By my count that's L-1 on 194 as well.

No one gets to hammer 194 before we get a claim. 194 doesn't make a claim until someone other than those on his wagon now decides they're ready to lynch. Mistakes this time around will NOT happen.

And, yes, I realize that my player slot got that part wrong yesterday. It was bad play that we don't want to repeat.

@nhammen, it might be worth asking Majjify if there are town games of his where he's taken a strong defense on other players day one. It's something that I do more often than others but not something you'd see in most of my games anyhow.

@Fujiko, thanks for the answer. It's a tough question without any one right answer and I like the thought you're giving. I ask mostly because I really do expect to be dead after tonight and I need everyone to have thought these things through come tomorrow. I suspect that you're town at this point and you'll likely be one of a smaller number of players in the game, and hence have a bigger impact on what happens by default.

I can live with a null read on robocopter87 from you now; my town read is coming from a shape of game argument that it took me quite a while of playing to be comfortable making. Just looking at his play on a post by post (or even exchange by exchange) basis I can see how people wouldn't like parts of it. A null read on RachMarie tomorrow due to lack of participation should probably start counting as a scum read by default. There's a strong tendency among all players to focus on behavior they see as scummy which punishes active players instead of those in the background. If anyone is allowed to stay in the background while scum accusations fly the town is doing itself a disservice; we need active participation from everyone just so that we've got accurate measures to judge everyone by. Town players have something to gain from being active; they need to find scum to win the game. Scum players have something to gain from not getting noticed; they generally just have to avoid being lynched; no attention makes it easier not to end up at the end of a rope.

But that's just to think about for later. I agree that RachMarie is not the lynch for today at this point. Also I'm hoping that she's about to jump in and give me lots of reasons to think she's town.

@RachMarie, welcome back to the game! I am sorry to hear that things have been so unpleasant RL-wise, I'm waiting with baited breath to hear what you come up with!

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@nhammen, I'm actually chalking that bit up to frustration voting. I've seen it before and it's pretty much a null read in my experience. Much more a personality thing than an alignment thing. In the end sometimes it's just satisfying to cast a vote on someone you strongly disagree with even if it's just for a while. In this case robocopter87's play is somewhat intentionally abrasive so it's designed to bring out reactions like that. There are other parts of Majiffy's play I don't love but that particular bit doesn't bother me overly because there wasn't really danger of a robocopter87 lynch during that stretch I don't think.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@194, that's an interesting response, but I assume you started to type it earlier (as I saw you on an hour or two ago and looking up who was on Mafiascum listed you as posting a message in Road to Rome that didn't show up.) I think the situation might have changed since you had a chance to get most of it in. Would you care to make any changes in response to the latest posts by Majiffy?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Majiffy, I realize that it's probably part of your game and you can play how you want, but I'd appreciate it if you toned down the insults a bit. It probably doesn't do much to move us closer to seeing the reasoning that people are working with at this point which I think is valuable.

Regardless of that, when you say that my day two reasons for one of you, robocopter87 and 194 almost certainly being scum is entirely circumstantial and here-say how much of that is due to the fact that it assumes that I'm the doctor? If I were to suddenly flip doctor and be out of the game and the day were to continue would it still be a worthless point?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Majiffy, that doesn't really answer my question at all. Let me try rephrasing.

Suppose we've got a newbie game in which there is a mislynched vanilla townie day one and someone who's not scum claims doctor with no counter claims after being brought to L-1. Let's also have the doctor claimant make a pretty poor hammer to end the day. Assuming scum didn't kill the player during the night how likely do you think they would be to have at least one of the two scum members jump on an inevitable wagon on the doctor claimant the next day? You can use whatever scale you'd like. I'm clearly trying to describe this game and look at what the scum team would do assuming I'm not a member of it so feel free to fill in any more details you want that would bring the hypothetical in line with what we've got. If the caliber of the scum team makes a difference I'm happy to hear what you think the cases might look like.

At this point I'm trying to establish where our opinions diverge on my day two analysis.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Fujiko, in this case you shouldn't be voting for someone you've got a null read on because the vote puts them at L-1 and there's a real possibility you're contributing to their lynch when you find other players scummier. If we were near the end of the day compromising on a lynch that was a null read to you would be fine but at this point if you don't think that 194 is particularly scummy you should not have your vote on them. They're already under pressure and Majiffy is already reacting. Unless you think that Majiffy is acting how he is to protect a scum partner (in my experience that would be highly unlikely at this point in the game for this setup) that vote for 194 doesn't sound like it makes sense.

If you feel that your vote for Majiffy isn't gaining traction but he's your scummiest read then why not try making more of a case and convincing others?

In any case, if you've got a null read on 194 your vote is in the wrong place at this time in the game.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@194, so here are the problems that I've got with that theory you've got regarding Majiffy's behavior towards you. First off, I'm pretty sure that the new scum players that Majiffy had in mind in his theory have to have been TheHossaim and Fujiko. It fits nicely with everything that he's said before that, including his defense of you. I don't think that he was particularly expecting another push against you today like Thor665 was making yesterday just based on what the remaining players had to say about you yesterday. Unless he was planning on having a partner stir something up (and the closest we can to seeing that before my entrance was Fujiko sending some attention your way) I can't see his interactions with you being a main part of any of his plans for today. I just don't think that it was possible to predict that I'd come into the game and things would fall into the position that they have.

Second, I don't think that he actually cares what you think about him particularly. I'd be pretty surprised if he was defending you to get you to think that you should trust him. He's being way too heavy handed for that and in general the bump that people get from being trusted is fairly minimal.

I could see the defense of you be a contingent thing that gets triggered if someone did attack you, but it almost can't have been his primary scum plan for the day if he's scum. Without that motivation for the day play do you still feel as strongly that he's your top scum suspect.

Also, have you come across any other play that's scummy? Even if you're right about Majiffy there has to be a partner. Who else is worth a vote at this point? We've had a round of night kills and 20 days of play to work with now so there are hopefully some other things you could point to (and I'm looking for non-lurking issues here, though lurking can be part of a case.) I guess I'd also take a couple strong town reads outside robocopter87 at this point with at least brief reasoning.

@Fujiko, could you clarify exactly what your opinion about 194 has been over the course of the game? Here's what I see from you in isolation:

• Voting to get him to talk more I think in Post 357
  
• A scummy read on day one, but more neutral since the start of day two in Post 438.
  
• One of your two scum reads as of Post 530.
  
• Someone who you've always had a pretty null read of as of Post 554.

There's nothing wrong with changing your read, but I feel like you're changing your previous reads a bit which is more troubling. If you've found him scummy in the past what was it you didn't like. If you've found him mostly null what was the main motivation for your votes day one?

@RachMarie, any progress on the ISOs yet?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Majiffy, I'll look forward to it.

-Zorblag R'Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Fujiko, I'd be pretty shocked if 194 and Majiffy were partners at this point. If scum could be counted on to protect their partner then we'd always have both as soon as we figured out who the first one was. As it turns out scum are almost always more interested in not establishing who their partner is and will avoid protecting them under most situations. Scum players might protect someone other than their partner to be able to say that they were right that a lynch was incorrect or to try to buddy with someone. For what it matters I don't love either of those explanations for how Majiffy is playing now, but that's not really the point.

As far as your vote goes, 194 is under somewhat serious pressure and in some danger of being lynched; not suddenly lynched, but lynched soon enough none-the-less. Your vote on him at this point makes it looks like you're ready for him to be lynched. I don't think that's true, and as such it's presenting those not on the wagon with the wrong impression. If someone were to want to vote for him now they would call for 194 to claim. That claim shouldn't come until there are 4 people ready to lynch 194 today, but I don't think that would be true based on your play. Unless you're ready to see someone lynched you probably shouldn't be on their wagon at L-1 (especially if you're at somewhat limited access which I think you are.)

Pressure votes shouldn't be kept when someone hits L-1; at that point the votes should be from people who are serious about a lynch. If you want information from 194 asking rather than voting is the way to go at this point.

Should I take your 530 comment to mean that you find 194 null except for the fact that Majiffy is defending him and you think Majiffy is scum?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Fujiko, we'll take as long as it takes to get a lynch that feels good to the town as a whole. We've still got time for good discussion for today. We have yet to hear where RachMarie and nahmmen want their votes and hopefully everyone is evaluating what we see as it goes. L-1 on 194 will happen or not but the town shouldn't lynch him unless the town actually thinks that he's scum collectively.

Is Majiffy still your only major scum read at this point then? Barring his defending of 194 (and I'll remind you that he's also strongly defended robocopter87) who is your top pick for scum right now?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Majiffy, thanks for doing that. It's pretty reassuring to here that as it means that I think that we will be able to have meaningful conversations for the rest of the game (well, the day at least; one or both of us should be gone by tomorrow) and I was beginning to worry that wouldn't be the case. My day two analysis did make very specific use of the fact that I'm actually the doctor. I know it's true and can use my logic freely; for anyone else there is a need to evaluate the likelihood that I'm telling the truth before buying the consequences on their own.

At this point, from your point of view (assuming you're town) it seems to me that if you find my reasoning sound you should either think that I'm scum or that one of 194 or robocopter87 should probably be scum. I agree with you that robocopter87 shouldn't be scum; I don't think that we're getting scum play from that spot at all at this point and I like your reasons for thinking he's town. I'm much less sold on your reasons for thinking that 194 is town (as evidenced by the fact that I'm currently voting for him) but that's your judgement to make.

What I haven't tried to do thus far this game is do any sort of justification that I'm town; I don't normally find it that helpful unless I'm in danger of getting lynched (and even then usually it's better to make a good case against someone else.) In this case though, given your position and how I think you reasoning should work, I'm going to point out TheHossaim's play the start of day two. He came in, made his confused post where he essentially gave up and then just disappeared.

I don't think that's what scum would do in that situation. Scum would have had the night to put something together for a plan for attacking the next day. They either try to cause some confusion while getting lynched (throwing out accusations, buddying something fierce, whatever) as they go down, try to actually prevent their lynch, or just don't bother showing up on day two if they're planning on dying and have given up. I sort of don't think that scum bother just giving up there as they know who their team is and hopefully don't know think of losing the game by getting lynched.

Scum fake claiming day one know that they won't get killed during the night; they have time to get ready for it going into day two. Had he been scum, TheHossaim would have been working with that knowledge from the minute that he typed the doctor claim the first time. He's either going to play through that once day two has started or he's just going to have given up by the time the day starts. He's not going to bother with his confused post and then bail. That's a reaction that's much more likely to come from actually confused and frustrated town who've just learned that they're still alive and then decide that the game isn't worth it as they've got no way to get through the day.

You'll have to decide how likely scum TheHossaim would have been to make that post and bail on your own, but I argue that it'd be much less likely than town TheHossaim.

@RachMarie, this is not an acceptable level of activity. Other games and RL are a less and less viable reason for not giving this game the time you need to participate when you're joining new games before making contributions to this one (which you seem to have done on Saturday and Monday at least.) How likely is 194 to be scum? How likely is Majiffy to be scum? How likely am I to be scum? I can't tell at all what your take on the game is and we're much too far in (and you've been here for much too long) for that to be the case.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

It's too early to be looking for partnerships particularly, but I've been thinking about it and it's worth noting the early day 2 interaction between Fujiko and 194. Fujiko comes in with a vote on 194 for a reason I don't fully understand (while not voting for TheHossaim), but then corrects herself and drops the vote. She then leaves 194 alone until she votes him for reasons that seem to be an attempt to pressure/suspicion based on a Majiffy defense and is willing to drop that pretty quickly as well.

I don't think that a scum team would start with those interactions day two. They would have had night one to talk and would have been able to decide to bus or not. If they decided to bus they wouldn't drop the vote so quickly like Fujiko did when there was no other attention in that direction. If there wasn't a plan to bus or at least distance the first vote of the day from Fujiko wouldn't have looked like that.

It doesn't matter yet, but I'd be pretty surprised if both of 194 and Fujiko were scum. Should one flip scum that's big town points for the other based on the start of this day. Should one of them flip town it's a null tell for the other. Based on the fact that I don't expect to be around for future flips, but that I do have at least some suspicion of each of them individually, I feel this is worth saying now.

@Fujiko, what do you plan to do to get a read on 194? What would you like to see from him that would help you decide whether he's scum or town?

@194, even if Majiffy is scum there's got to be another member of the scum team out there. Who else do you find most suspicious at this point (and why)?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Right, we need people to be more here for the game at this point. I think that nhammen and robocopter87 are town and they actually get passes to some degree at this point; they've got their opinions out there and are voting (though robocopter weighing in on recent developments would be nice.) Majiffy gets a pass; he's been a presense and has his reason for V/LA right now. Of the remaining three players I'm most happy with what I've got from Fujiko; it's something to work with and we have her on record which is good. 194 is vaguely making an effort now (as I prod) but there should be more. I'm probably going to be voting for RachMarie at the end of this post.

Counter-intuitively (at least based on that statement), I just took a look at the wagon on TheHossaim that we had yesterday in a bit more depth. It's been said before but I kind of blew past it as I was reading posts in isolation rather than the thread as a whole, but crap, he was at L-1 for a long time day one. Active, non-terrified scum, should have had every reason to get on that wagon at some point. They would have had to must up justification but that should have been doable. From my point of view the only way that there's no scum on the list of robocopter87, RXK, Majiffy and Fujiko is if both scum were largely not present or too worried about looking bad to act or if neither member of the scum team was under any real pressure and they were assuming the town would act eventually.

We're looking at a group of nhammen, 194 and RachMarie at this point as player who weren't on the wagon who are still about. RachMarie was such a non-presense that I could easily see her being scum who never got on the wagon. She was never under any real pressure and, quite frankly, scum that's under no pressure is better off staying off wagons if they don't have a need to hop on them to protect a partner or some such. nhammen wasn't hugely present during the end of the day yesterday, but I think that if there were no scum on the wagon he probably would have found his way over too it; there was certainly time and opportunity. 194 is a trickier case. He really didn't go out of his way to cast any votes that would worry people yesterday; I could see a scum strategy where he lets the town make their own mislynch bed without his help if he's not trying to protect a partner given his statements about scum play. I'm also slightly inclined to think that he was mostly disengaged from the game even if it wasn't to the extent that RachMarie was. I'm worried that I'm relying too much on my scum read on him leading up till now though.

I guess what it boils down to is I could potentially see RachMarie and 194 being a scum team off the TheHossaim wagon. I could also easily see RachMarie being on a scum team with Majiffy or possibly Fujiko (though then I'm surprised by the play to start today.) If nhammen is scum he's the most likely of those in play to have a partner on the wagon, but I don't think he's scum at this point anyhow.

In any case, I am going to move my vote to RachMarie. I can think of enough ways for her to be scum that it's not that much of a stretch from my 194 vote. What's more, she's done nothing at all to make me think that she's town. Just over a week from deadline on day two of a game that's a scum tell. I've just got nothing from her alone to work with here and there's no sign that that's going to be changing. At some point we need to get players like that active, have them replace or lynch them. Consider this vote the first step to whichever of those is what we'll end up with.

UNVOTE: 194
VOTE: RachMarie

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Robocopter87, has RachMarie done anything pro-town this game? If so, what? If not, why isn't she scummy rather than null given how far into the game we are?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Robocopter87, How long do excuses work? She's actively joining other games at this point and giving us nothing. I'm sympathetic to RL issues but inactive players are anti-town at best and I HATE loosing to inactive scum.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

And for what it's worth, here's my irritation at 194 for just having been on reading the thread and not deciding to post anything when he's only got one given scum read. Maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised and he'll pop in shortly with some content.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Robocopter87, yeah, I understand where you're coming from, but please keep in mind after I'm gone that not posting town content eventually is scummy; more-so as the game goes on. Scum have huge motivation to do it if they can get away with it and town just don't. It's all about motives in the end.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

For those that don't want to vote RachMarie because she's not done anything scummy in this game here are some things to think about:

Her posts on the forums since her last post here? 26 at this point. She about and doing things, just not here.

If RachMarie is town then why haven't scum used her as a candidate to lynch yet? Have we really pressured scum so little that they wouldn't try to shift attention to a town lurker? Actually, I guess we really did pressure scum that little day one, but still no pressure on them day two? In the absence of anything from a particular player we can at least look at the shape of the game surrounding that player; in this case I'd argue that it's scummy.

Town don't want to attack people who don't post content because those that do post content are saying things that are scummy; it's one of the biggest flaws in trying to play mafia in a setting like this that scum have motivation then to not talk if they've got the option to as town will be more likely to punish other town members who are posting.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@RachMarie, I'm ready for you to wow me with some pro-town play so that I can go move my vote elsewhere. Lay it on me! Having said that, we're much better off as a town if we're not trying to make decisions at deadline when the time crunch leads to compromise lynches that the town doesn't actually like. Sooner would be much better than later.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Majiffy, I don't particularly think that Fujiko is under enough pressure from the game as a whole to be too worried about self-preservation with her vote. I wasn't particularly expecting her to be the third on the RachMarie wagon (or to get nhammen on the wagon either, though I don't mind his reasons) though I suppose she's been following my discontent with RachMarie's play and we've been talking about it some. To be honest I expect that you, if anyone, would have been someone who might come along for this wagon-ride. Given that we've hit L-1 it's pretty clear why you wouldn't cast that vote now though.

I half agree with you about 194's reads. His dislike of your play was more impressive to me as there were potential scum motivations it felt like he was looking for there even if I didn't buy the ones he was citing, but the RachMarie hate feels pretty much like he has to give some answer and he's going with the popular one.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Majiffy, yeah, I understand both of those so I'm not really worried about it. We've got time for things to shake out. If we were closer to deadline it'd be another matter.

Listening to the beat now. It's not what I was expecting (who knows how I come up with my expectations) but it's got a fine flow to it.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Mod, I believe Robocopter87 should be voting Fujiko.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

OK, I've gone back and read Fujiko in isolation again. I'm still getting new to the game, trying to figure things out, more likely town than scum as a read out of it.

If we were at deadline I'd be willing to lynch Fujiko but she's way down on my list. My list, incidentally:

RachMarie
194
Majiffy
Fujiko
-------------
nhammen
Robocopter87

Where those bottom two just seem like bad lynches to me. The top two are easily my first and second, Majiffy and Fujiko I'd lynch if I needed to but wouldn't really be thrilled about it.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

nhammen has given his reads and reasons (whether you find them satisfying is up to you) and RachMarie has given us exactly what we've come to expect from her this game (which is one big reason she's got my vote.) No surprises along those lines and it's hardly worth putting them in the same category at this point.

Gratz Elmo!!

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Mafiffy, nhammen is up to date with his coverage of the discussion happening here as far as I'm concerned. What would you like him to address that he hasn't?

And, as you've posted while I was at this, I officially give my support to that intent to hammer.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Majiffy, the discussion in the last page and a half (not 2 and a half) since nhammen checked in last has been pretty fluffy. I'm not opposed to him stopping by with his take, but I'm not worried about it.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Majiffy, far be it from me to argue against that, and you are right, nhammen has now gone longer than anyone else without posting. I'm still more interested in getting content from RachMarie and 194 though. Perhaps we'll get lucky and get all three to chime in with new ideas by tomorrow morning!

RachMarie, interestingly enough, hasn't been posting today, but was about this morning searching and reading things; I don't know that she actually looked at this thread (she didn't post in it), but she was definitely around.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

And that's L-1 on Fujiko. No one gets to "accidentally" hammer at this point. If anyone decides that they're ready to lynch her they state intent and ask for a claim.

@Majiffy, still have intent to hammer on RachMarie or does her post or the vote for Fujiko change that?

[Zorblag]

So for what it's worth I find RachMarie's reads to almost all be describing surface features rather than motive for the players. Taking her strongest town read, for example, I don't think that I'd have any problem giving good pointers or solidly explaining votes and reasoning (the only things she lists as behavior) if I were scum or, in fact, that I'd be any less likely to do those things as scum.

The list of reads is much better than what we've had up until now, but overall I'm not impressed.

I also find the 194 bit about posting a fair amount (which was presumably a reason to find him town) to be off. He's at the second lowest number of posts for players in the game (with only RachMarie behind him.) The language used also mitigates the scum ponts ("seems" to be letting others pick his scum reads "to some extent".) and she's excusing things for him. I'm probably slightly sensitive to this sort of thing right now as she's talking about my second biggest suspect but that really sticks out as a soft take on 194's play.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

fluff

[Zorblag]

Er, terribly sorry about that, was trying to do a search for the word fluff on this page in the game and it's early so I hit the wrong set of buttons.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@RachMarie, OK, I've reread it. You're attributing a nomially pro-town trait to him which isn't really true (posting a fair bit) and then offsetting his scummy behavior with excuses for him and modifiers that lessen it. Then you're giving a leaning scum read. I think it's pretty soft.

@Majiffy and Robocopter87, I'm much happier with a RachMarie lynch than a Fujiko lynch right now. If you want to wait for someone else to help with Fujiko (looks like it would be 194 at this point) that's up to you, but given these choices it won't be me anytime soon. I'm ready for RachMarie to claim when someone's ready to hammer.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@RachMarie, anything you care to add to your comments on Fujiko that would help sell me on her scumminess? Apparently I'm not convinced thus far.

I'd also be happy to hear any thoughts on the interaction between players what what might or might not be making people scummy or town-like based on that.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

OK, so I've slept on it now and here's my problem with RachMarie's reads and follow up. It doesn't feel to me like she's trying to find scum there. It feels like she's throwing something out because we've got her under pressure and she needs to do something to seem active at this point. After her reads she's talking with me some about what she means with her 194 read because I complained about it, but other than saying that she meant she had a scummier take than I was giving her credit for it's still not saying anything that interesting; certainly it isn't looking for scum. Her motives just don't appear to be finding scum so much as providing a lynch alternative to herself at L-1.

It's possible that this whole thing boils down to disinterest in the game; RachMarie has been busy since she joined with things in RL (which I have sympathy for and over which she has no control) as well as other things around here (which I have less sympathy for given that she's choosing to commit to other time sinks here instead of finding scum in this game.) This could be coming from town, but it's never good town play. On the other hand, it is good scum play if she can get away with it (and she is scum she was doing it just fine until a couple days ago.)

At this point we're at the end of day two, RachMarie has done essentially nothing to help find scum. Her reads simply point to the other viable wagon besides herself and a popular scum target as the two people she finds scummy (with the least strong town read going to yet another player that others don't like.) She's playing to stay alive, not find scum and avoiding content in the game. It's scummy behavior and there's no reason I can think of to think that she really should be town and that this is all just poor play from someone who should know better.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@RachMarie, if you're town I'd focus less on that just now than on finding scum were I you. If you're scum then it doesn't really matter. In fact, at this point it probably doesn't matter too much either way; you're being asked to claim and I expect you'll be lynched shortly. I was looking forward to playing a game in which we could interact, catch some scum together or outwit eachother depending on our roles. This game doesn't seem to have been that one which is too bad. It just means that I'll have to try again later when I next feel I've got time to play.

@Everyone, I'm off to bed for the night. If a RachMarie lynch happens before I post again here's what I would have said in twilight normally:

If RachMarie flips town we'll be in LyLo (or at best MyLo) tomorrow. It'll be time for a mass claim in either case; if it's MyLo I might follow that with a no lynch but it'll be up to whoever's around (and since that would include me we can talk about the benefits then if it's an issue.) If it's LyLo use the information from the claim to inform the lynch. Don't take anyone for granted as town or scum, but rather take the time to look carefully at everyone who's still alive. We've had these suspicions throughout the game for good scum-hunting reasons, but scum that come across looking like town early will sometimes make slips towards the end so don't discount anything. If RachMarie is town I'd look to Fujiko and nhammen a bit more than I have because of interaction with my player slot (but I wouldn't discount the others as there will still be 2 scum about.)

If RachMarie flips scum (and I think there's a pretty decent chance that's what we'll have happen) we're not in LyLo. I probably mass claim anyhow just because 2 days of night actions is so much to work with from any power roles. Suspicion-wise then I'd currently start with 194 and Majiffy, but even though I think he's town don't forget Robocopter87. If I'm around (which would surprise me) I'll have more to say, but beyond that I'll leave it to the rest of you to figure things out.

As a last comment I'll note that 194 is still staying out of the game for the most part. He participated when I hounded him for it, but as soon as the pressure was off he dropped back to the background. He's been on today with two players at L-1 (neither of which he's voting for) and has had nothing to add to the game. Keep the pressure on him and make him contribute. Possibly he just needs to be lynched as he's got a fair chance of being scum no matter what RachMarie's alignment is, but that'll be a call for tomorrow.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Yeah, apparently it was silly to assume that RachMarie would come back when she said she would and that the game would proceed. Ah well, we're not quite pressed for time yet; hopefully we won't ever be this day.

@Robocopter87, I don't mind your name; there are some that take too much effort to type, but yours is fine. As for whether I'll die tonight or not, don't go giving scum more ideas about it and WIFOM than I already have been. I've been working hard on pushing at what their assumptions about reasonable kills are going to be with my own agenda in mind. If they choose to leave me alive we'll deal with that tomorrow.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@nhammen, the interaction with my player slot has to do with the play at the start of day 2. Based on who voted for TheHossaim I expect one of you, Fujiko or RachMarie (though only one) to be scum.

@Everyone, based on what I'm seeing in other threads RachMarie probably won't be posting here in the immediate future. Looks like stuff blew up in RL and I suspect it'll take a bit of time to deal with it. For what it's worth I don't actually care too much if we wait for the claim before hammering at this point; it's not my call to make as my vote is already down but if anyone else chooses to hammer now I won't hold it against them. Mind you, I'll probably be dead so that's a pretty empty promise.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@RachMarie, I am very sorry to hear that things are so crappy with the roommate (on top of everything else,) but if you're about enough to post you really should be claiming with your next post.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

First up, thanks for modding, Elmo TeH AzN! Thanks for backup modding and letting me join, Nobody Special!

Past that, good job at the end there town, it took a bit but scum got lynched. I've got many of my thoughts in the dead quick topic (as does Thor) which might be worth a read. Beyond that, here are a couple other things I took away from the game:

It turns out that TheHossaim didn't actually protect anyone night one; he submitted protection for Thor665 too late and it didn't count. There was no way I was going to report that replacing in so I gave what looked like the most convincing protection given what he'd said the day before. The lesson there: Always submit night actions early and then change them if you must as the night goes on. It's better to have something suboptimal in than nothing at all. This would have been a much different game if Thor665 had still been about for day two.

@RachMarie, I still want to play a game with you when you've got time to play this time. I didn't particularly enjoy getting you lynched at the end of day two, but I didn't feel like I was being left any choice.

@194, I think that you do have the potential to play a really good scum game here, and I believe that you've played good ones elsewhere (I might even be interested in looking them over if you wouldn't mind linking them.) You just need to be able to ramp up the activity and participate in the game a bit; Thor665 and I both picked up on the fact that you were sitting back and letting the game happen which is great scum play if you can get away with it, but terrible for town. Faking the scum hunting is the corner-stone of successful scum play in my opinion; you've got the other things in there.

@Majiffy, I didn't complain about it at the time, but I found the here-say dismissal of the case on 194 pretty unimpressive. Unless that's a term that's being thrown around regularly now (and I hope it's not) it just doesn't work well in a game of mafia where almost every argument in the early game is speculative. Simply not liking the case would have been fine with me; I could have reasonably chalked that up to confirmation bias.

@Fujiko, I said it in the quick topic, but nice work staying cool towards the end of day two and not claiming. It turns out that claiming would have been OK in this case (I would have protected you, you would have gotten your investigation in, and the 194 counter-claim, had it come, would have looked worse day three,) but in general what you did there is how you want to handle pressure. I actually wouldn't have bothered investigating TheHossaim night one were I you. If he was the doctor (which he was) scum had a fair chance of taking him out that night which would have made the investigation worthless. If he was scum he'd stick around for another couple days (barring being lynched, which wouldn't have been the end of the world) and there are other ways that he could have been revealed. In general, in the early game I don't think I'd bother investigating claimed PRs for those reasons, though, to be honest, I don't have much cop experience.

@everyone, it was a pleasure to play with you all! If anyone has any specific questions about my thoughts I'll be happy to share them. Beyond that, best of luck in future games, and perhaps I'll see you around as I play my rare game here and there.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@RachMarie, any tastey links to the scum quick topic to provide?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh