Newbie 1252: The Other Game Town Wins!

[Majiffy]

@Majiffy, I realize that it's probably part of your game and you can play how you want, but I'd appreciate it if you toned down the insults a bit. It probably doesn't do much to move us closer to seeing the reasoning that people are working with at this point which I think is valuable.

Regardless of that, when you say that my day two reasons for one of you, robocopter87 and 194 almost certainly being scum is entirely circumstantial and here-say how much of that is due to the fact that it assumes that I'm the doctor? If I were to suddenly flip doctor and be out of the game and the day were to continue would it still be a worthless point?

I think your push on 194 is heresay. Robo is town, and I don't know why you're even considering him.

I can't tone down the insults. It's who I am; I hate people.

[Zorblag]

@Majiffy, that doesn't really answer my question at all. Let me try rephrasing.

Suppose we've got a newbie game in which there is a mislynched vanilla townie day one and someone who's not scum claims doctor with no counter claims after being brought to L-1. Let's also have the doctor claimant make a pretty poor hammer to end the day. Assuming scum didn't kill the player during the night how likely do you think they would be to have at least one of the two scum members jump on an inevitable wagon on the doctor claimant the next day? You can use whatever scale you'd like. I'm clearly trying to describe this game and look at what the scum team would do assuming I'm not a member of it so feel free to fill in any more details you want that would bring the hypothetical in line with what we've got. If the caliber of the scum team makes a difference I'm happy to hear what you think the cases might look like.

At this point I'm trying to establish where our opinions diverge on my day two analysis.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[194]

@194, that's an interesting response, but I assume you started to type it earlier (as I saw you on an hour or two ago and looking up who was on Mafiascum listed you as posting a message in Road to Rome that didn't show up.) I think the situation might have changed since you had a chance to get most of it in. Would you care to make any changes in response to the latest posts by Majiffy?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

Yes, I was posting while the recent Maffijy posts happened. I read their post, and his open defense of me is, FMPoV, confirming my theory. I'm a bit worried about how over-the-top he's going, but that seems to be part of his usual gameplay (and temperament).
The post I'm quoting now (which was done after mine) is a desperate attempt at gaining/recovering my trustiness so I can take the vote out, insulting me btw.

However, I have noticed something: remember all those Maffijy posts about "Mafia is mostlikely newbscum"? Well, I have just found a reason for them.
If you ask in this game who are the newb players, first answer will probably contain me (This one is my very first Mafiascum game, in fact). So, Maffijy is hinting at this "look at 194, he's most likely scum". He in fact avoided to answer the question directly when Robo asked, in order to not contradict his open defense of me.

Are you retarded? I'm the only one defending you, you fuckwit.

I know you are the only one defending me. But that doesn't mean I have to do the opposite. When you are Town, you should trust nobody. The only real information is the one you get from the mod. The rest is just what you see, what you get with some roles (not always true!), what you read, and what you can deduct from what you read. And now, I read a guy who is firmly defending me (heck, you are making more work at defending me than myself). That doesn't make you town. You could as easily be town as scum, and the reasons a scum member could have to pull this scenario were already explained. I do not need your defense either, as it is my work to defend myself (unless you require me to win somehow, and we are not mafia buddies so no) and help in the scumhunting.

In fact, I hadn't seen that until now. He probably decided to support me because he watched me as a weak newb player, that would stick to any experienced player who were defending him. I can be new, but I'm not that "fuckwit".

[RachMarie]

In my very first game (most of which was lost in the crash), Newbie 1206, I was the doc. One of the scum Meta went way beyond defending or even white knighting me, he actually became my champion and made me unlynchable. In Lylo I cost us the game because I picked the wrong one. So now when I see someone being ultra defending of another player, it makes me VERY suspicious.

[Fujiko]

Fuck you. Here's our scum.

VOTE: Fujiko

So now when I see someone being ultra defending of another player, it makes me VERY suspicious.

Majiffy's fierce defense is making me more suspicious as well, but for a different reason - it's because he is the most solid scumread I have. I wasn't getting any traction there - so why shouldn't I vote for someone who he appears to be fiercely defending, and who I've always had a pretty null read on and have wanted more information from?

I unvoted Hossaim to vote 194 D1 for a reason - that reason is still (at least as) valid.

I want to hear what 194 has to say.

[Zorblag]

@Fujiko, in this case you shouldn't be voting for someone you've got a null read on because the vote puts them at L-1 and there's a real possibility you're contributing to their lynch when you find other players scummier. If we were near the end of the day compromising on a lynch that was a null read to you would be fine but at this point if you don't think that 194 is particularly scummy you should not have your vote on them. They're already under pressure and Majiffy is already reacting. Unless you think that Majiffy is acting how he is to protect a scum partner (in my experience that would be highly unlikely at this point in the game for this setup) that vote for 194 doesn't sound like it makes sense.

If you feel that your vote for Majiffy isn't gaining traction but he's your scummiest read then why not try making more of a case and convincing others?

In any case, if you've got a null read on 194 your vote is in the wrong place at this time in the game.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@194, so here are the problems that I've got with that theory you've got regarding Majiffy's behavior towards you. First off, I'm pretty sure that the new scum players that Majiffy had in mind in his theory have to have been TheHossaim and Fujiko. It fits nicely with everything that he's said before that, including his defense of you. I don't think that he was particularly expecting another push against you today like Thor665 was making yesterday just based on what the remaining players had to say about you yesterday. Unless he was planning on having a partner stir something up (and the closest we can to seeing that before my entrance was Fujiko sending some attention your way) I can't see his interactions with you being a main part of any of his plans for today. I just don't think that it was possible to predict that I'd come into the game and things would fall into the position that they have.

Second, I don't think that he actually cares what you think about him particularly. I'd be pretty surprised if he was defending you to get you to think that you should trust him. He's being way too heavy handed for that and in general the bump that people get from being trusted is fairly minimal.

I could see the defense of you be a contingent thing that gets triggered if someone did attack you, but it almost can't have been his primary scum plan for the day if he's scum. Without that motivation for the day play do you still feel as strongly that he's your top scum suspect.

Also, have you come across any other play that's scummy? Even if you're right about Majiffy there has to be a partner. Who else is worth a vote at this point? We've had a round of night kills and 20 days of play to work with now so there are hopefully some other things you could point to (and I'm looking for non-lurking issues here, though lurking can be part of a case.) I guess I'd also take a couple strong town reads outside robocopter87 at this point with at least brief reasoning.

@Fujiko, could you clarify exactly what your opinion about 194 has been over the course of the game? Here's what I see from you in isolation:

• Voting to get him to talk more I think in Post 357
  
• A scummy read on day one, but more neutral since the start of day two in Post 438.
  
• One of your two scum reads as of Post 530.
  
• Someone who you've always had a pretty null read of as of Post 554.

There's nothing wrong with changing your read, but I feel like you're changing your previous reads a bit which is more troubling. If you've found him scummy in the past what was it you didn't like. If you've found him mostly null what was the main motivation for your votes day one?

@RachMarie, any progress on the ISOs yet?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Majiffy]

So, Maffijy is hinting at this "look at 194, he's most likely scum".

He in fact avoided to answer the question directly when Robo asked, in order to not contradict his open defense of me.

Are you retarded?

I'm the only one defending you

, you fuckwit.

I know you are the only one defending me. But that doesn't mean I have to do the opposite.

...

but I'm not that "fuckwit".

Read the bolded. Now read your post. Now read the bolded. Now shut up and sit in the corner.

Troll, I'll get to your post later when I'm on my laptop and not on my ultra-high-res-making-the-fonts-tiny work computer.

[Zorblag]

@Majiffy, I'll look forward to it.

-Zorblag R'Lyeh

[Elmo TeH AzN]

Day 2, Vote Count #8

194 (3) [L-1!!!] - Zorblag, Robocopter87, Fujiko
Fujiko (1) [L-3] - Majiffy
nhammen (0) -
Zorblag (0) -
Rachmarie (0) -
Robocopter87 (0) -
Majiffy (1) [L-3] - 194

Not Voting: RachMarie, nhammen

With 7 Alive It Takes 4 To Lynch
Fujiko is V/LA through Sunday July 22
Deadline is set for July 27th. 5:44 PM EST (expired on 2012-07-27 17:44:00)
Let me know If I made an error

Alright First Things First. Don't use where I post and say OH HE WAS POSTING SOMEWHERE ELSE. Like I said my volume was nothing close.

Number 2: Some people need to chill out in this game. This is your first and only public warning. Failure to comply will result in a force replacement. Be respectful of your fellow players. You know who you are.

[Fujiko]

@Fujiko, could you clarify exactly what your opinion about 194 has been over the course of the game? Here's what I see from you in isolation:

• Voting to get him to talk more I think in Post 357
  
• A scummy read on day one, but more neutral since the start of day two in Post 438.
  
• One of your two scum reads as of Post 530.
  
• Someone who you've always had a pretty null read of as of Post 554.

There's nothing wrong with changing your read, but I feel like you're changing your previous reads a bit which is more troubling. If you've found him scummy in the past what was it you didn't like. If you've found him mostly null what was the main motivation for your votes day one?

The main motivation was to get him to say something, really.

As an aside: this may sound very flip, but what's wrong with putting him at L-1 to get him to say something? Nobody's going to hammer (anymore ) until he gets to talk.

530: that's mainly due to Majiffy's very strong defense of him.

[Fujiko]

@Fujiko, in this case you shouldn't be voting for someone you've got a null read on because the vote puts them at L-1 and there's a real possibility you're contributing to their lynch when you find other players scummier. If we were near the end of the day compromising on a lynch that was a null read to you would be fine but at this point if you don't think that 194 is particularly scummy you should not have your vote on them. They're already under pressure and Majiffy is already reacting. Unless you think that Majiffy is acting how he is to protect a scum partner (in my experience that would be highly unlikely at this point in the game for this setup) that vote for 194 doesn't sound like it makes sense.

If you feel that your vote for Majiffy isn't gaining traction but he's your scummiest read then why not try making more of a case and convincing others?

In any case, if you've got a null read on 194 your vote is in the wrong place at this time in the game.

Should have quoted this as well, my bad.

Majiffy protecting his partner - that was part of the thought, yes. Assuming he is scum, why else would he be defending 194 so vehemently? I haven't seen this in regards to anyone else. I'll go back and reread (not tonight, alas) - perhaps I'll better understand why that's not what you think is going on here.

Why not make a stronger case on Majiffy? Partly, it's gut. (I know some of that may be me reacting to his posting style.) Partly, it's him wanting to kill Hoss so badly - why? I don't get it. It feels to me like he didn't lynch Hoss because he thought we were going to do it for him. These points have been made.

Vote in the wrong place: As I mentioned before, I don't theoretically understand why. It should be somewhere, I would think, and this seems to me like as good of a place as any. We were so flip with RXK last week - that did make me more uncomfortable once I saw the results. However, I think everyone is on board with that not happening to 194.

[Zorblag]

@Fujiko, I'd be pretty shocked if 194 and Majiffy were partners at this point. If scum could be counted on to protect their partner then we'd always have both as soon as we figured out who the first one was. As it turns out scum are almost always more interested in not establishing who their partner is and will avoid protecting them under most situations. Scum players might protect someone other than their partner to be able to say that they were right that a lynch was incorrect or to try to buddy with someone. For what it matters I don't love either of those explanations for how Majiffy is playing now, but that's not really the point.

As far as your vote goes, 194 is under somewhat serious pressure and in some danger of being lynched; not suddenly lynched, but lynched soon enough none-the-less. Your vote on him at this point makes it looks like you're ready for him to be lynched. I don't think that's true, and as such it's presenting those not on the wagon with the wrong impression. If someone were to want to vote for him now they would call for 194 to claim. That claim shouldn't come until there are 4 people ready to lynch 194 today, but I don't think that would be true based on your play. Unless you're ready to see someone lynched you probably shouldn't be on their wagon at L-1 (especially if you're at somewhat limited access which I think you are.)

Pressure votes shouldn't be kept when someone hits L-1; at that point the votes should be from people who are serious about a lynch. If you want information from 194 asking rather than voting is the way to go at this point.

Should I take your 530 comment to mean that you find 194 null except for the fact that Majiffy is defending him and you think Majiffy is scum?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Fujiko]

VOTE: Majiffy

All good points.

However - I can't help but shake the feeling that if we don't get someone to L-1, we'll never actually get anywhere, and we're never going to get someone to L-1. Is this pace normal? fast? slow? Will it pick up as we approach deadline?

My 530 comments: yeah, that's accurate. My read is pretty null on him by himself.

[Zorblag]

@Fujiko, we'll take as long as it takes to get a lynch that feels good to the town as a whole. We've still got time for good discussion for today. We have yet to hear where RachMarie and nahmmen want their votes and hopefully everyone is evaluating what we see as it goes. L-1 on 194 will happen or not but the town shouldn't lynch him unless the town actually thinks that he's scum collectively.

Is Majiffy still your only major scum read at this point then? Barring his defending of 194 (and I'll remind you that he's also strongly defended robocopter87) who is your top pick for scum right now?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[nhammen]

So, my first reaction to this post is to instinctively seperate the five names into the listed groups. Earlier you stated your town reads as Robo, 194, and myself. But after this, you gave me scumpoints. So, did you forget I had scumpoints, or something else?

I just grabbed the names from the most recent vote-count. Also, way to dodge the question.

And you accuse me of dodging questions? Answer the question please. Also, it makes me so happy that you accuse me of dodging a question that

Could you two stop focusing so much on each other and focus a tad more on the rest of the players? I feel a bit like sending you both to your rooms without supper here.

194, nhammen, Fujiko, RachMarie, Troll

Who would you like me to focus on out of this list? I have a town read on 2, 2 don't post much, and one just replaced in with one post.

wasn't even directed at me. So two things: 1) Who are the two townreads on that list and who are the two people that don't post much? Obviously I know which one Troll is. 2) Why do you accuse me of dodging a question that is not directed at me? Because it seems to me that you just took any excuse you could to throw suspicion on me. And I just unvoted you, but now it goes right back on. VOTE: Majiffy


----
Continuing on catching up (that seems to be a nice amount of posts for 1 day!)

[nhammen]

Let me know If I made an error

194 is voting Majiffy, not Fujiko.
This also means with the 2 recent votes for Majiffy, he is now at L-1

[nhammen]

Also, you have Robo and Majiffy both listed as both not voting and voting for someone.
Neither should be on the not voting list.

[nhammen]

194 raises a good point in #545 (that I believe I made earlier, but am not sure). Majiffy claims to believe there is a newbscum team. And yet, the only 2 newbs remaining in this game are 194 and Fujiko. Thus, if there is a newbscum team, 194 is scum. But he defends 194, so how can he believe there is a newbscum team?

Haven't fully caught up, so don't know if he has responded to this or not.

[nhammen]

So, Maffijy is hinting at this "look at 194, he's most likely scum".

He in fact avoided to answer the question directly when Robo asked, in order to not contradict his open defense of me.

Are you retarded?

I'm the only one defending you

, you fuckwit.

I know you are the only one defending me. But that doesn't mean I have to do the opposite.

...

but I'm not that "fuckwit".

Read the bolded. Now read your post. Now read the bolded. Now shut up and sit in the corner.

Every statement you have made about a newbscum team has been hinting that he is scum, while you still explicitly stated he was town. Now, it is possible that you were referring to Fuji and Hoss as the supposed newbscum. But, you only mentioned Fuji as potential scum once prior to the newbscum argument (with no reasons, which is exactly what you are saying Fuji is scummy for). And your 194 townread is gut. So, this doesn't really make sense. And if one of these players flips town, then your hints are most definitely calling 194 scum. Hinting someone is scum while calling them town is a scum move.

Also, it seems to me that almost every piece of evidence you have come up with confirms the opinion that you already had. This indicates to me that either you are tailoring your "evidence" to fit your "reads", or you are only seeing evidence that fits a very strong confirmation bias of yours.

[Majiffy]

@Majiffy, I'll look forward to it.

-Zorblag R'Lyeh

In the studio till 4:30 AM last night, back in in about ~45 minutes. So this will have to be delayed until I get home tonight.

And you accuse me of dodging questions? Answer the question please.

Your question was in reference to your misinterpretation of the facts. But yes, I still think you're town, I'm just much less sure of that read.

194

,

nhammen

, Fujiko, RachMarie, Troll

wasn't even directed at me. So two things: 1) Who are the two townreads on that list and who are the two people that don't post much?

Does this make it easier for you?

2) Why do you accuse me of dodging a question that is not directed at me? Because it seems to me that you just took any excuse you could to throw suspicion on me. And I just unvoted you, but now it goes right back on. VOTE: Majiffy

Oh my,

how dare

I mistake someone responding to a pointed question with a post as having been the person who I addressed that question to!

Your vote looks incredibly advantageous.

194 raises a good point in #545 (that I believe I made earlier, but am not sure). Majiffy claims to believe there is a newbscum team. And yet, the only 2 newbs remaining in this game are 194 and Fujiko. Thus, if there is a newbscum team, 194 is scum. But he defends 194, so how can he believe there is a newbscum team?

This has already been addressed.

Every statement you have made about a newbscum team has been hinting that he is scum, while you still explicitly stated he was town.

Now, it is possible that you were referring to Fuji and Hoss as the supposed newbscum. But, you only mentioned Fuji as potential scum once prior to the newbscum argument (with no reasons, which is exactly what you are saying Fuji is scummy for). And your 194 townread is gut. So, this doesn't really make sense. And if one of these players flips town, then your hints are most definitely calling 194 scum. Hinting someone is scum while calling them town is a scum move.

Also, it seems to me that almost every piece of evidence you have come up with confirms the opinion that you already had. This indicates to me that either you are tailoring your "evidence" to fit your "reads", or you are only seeing evidence that fits a very strong confirmation bias of yours.

There've

never

been any hints of 194 as scum. Bring me

one

quote that proves otherwise. I don't hint. I'm very blatantly in-your-face about my reads and that goes for either alignment. This whole "hinting" argument against me is complete bullshit.

Oh, you mean I'm bringing up the things I've seen that made me feel a certain way? Did Newton have a confirmation bias about gravity? You're just skewing the facts now.

[Elmo TeH AzN]

Day 2, Vote Count #9

194 (2) [L-2] - Zorblag, Robocopter87
Fujiko (1) [L-3] - Majiffy
nhammen (0) -
Zorblag (0) -
Rachmarie (0) -
Robocopter87 (0) -
Majiffy (3) [L-1!!!] - 194, Fujiko, nhammen

Not Voting: RachMarie

With 7 Alive It Takes 4 To Lynch
Fujiko is V/LA through Sunday July 22
Deadline is set for July 27th. 5:44 PM EST (expired on 2012-07-27 17:44:00)
Let me know If I made an error

[RachMarie]

In Politics Mafia, he defended a townread by saying things like "You'd rather lynch obv. VI than no-lynch? Noted." and "I'm rather pissed at the people supporting a town lynch over no lynch. The flip of a night kill will be more beneficial than an inte wagon analysis; the town half was up their own ass with wagons." I find his logic in that game highly disagreeable, but it is consistent with his play here.

UNVOTE: Majiffy

However, it is still somewhat scummy that he repeatedly attacked Robo while stating he is town; even going so far as to vote him. This is NOT pro-town play. He could have been on a potential Robo lynch and claimed to have a town read on him at the same time. Unfortunately, while ISOing him, I also found instances of this. That is TERRIBLE play as Town or Scum.

You unvoted Majiffy and now you say he is at L-1?

[194]

@194, so here are the problems that I've got with that theory you've got regarding Majiffy's behavior towards you. First off, I'm pretty sure that the new scum players that Majiffy had in mind in his theory have to have been TheHossaim and Fujiko. It fits nicely with everything that he's said before that, including his defense of you. I don't think that he was particularly expecting another push against you today like Thor665 was making yesterday just based on what the remaining players had to say about you yesterday. Unless he was planning on having a partner stir something up (and the closest we can to seeing that before my entrance was Fujiko sending some attention your way) I can't see his interactions with you being a main part of any of his plans for today. I just don't think that it was possible to predict that I'd come into the game and things would fall into the position that they have.

Second, I don't think that he actually cares what you think about him particularly. I'd be pretty surprised if he was defending you to get you to think that you should trust him. He's being way too heavy handed for that and in general the bump that people get from being trusted is fairly minimal.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

About your first point, you are actually right. However, if that was the team he was thinking of, why couldn't he just answer that when Robo asked?
Also, he doesn't seem to have changed that theory after your post, which pretty much got you townreads from a lot of people.
Anyway, you are actually making a valid point. I still think my theory has some fair chances of being true, however.

The second point is more like a personal interpretation of his motivations behind my theory than a point to justify it. Its truth value is depending of the truthness/falseness of the whole theory.

[194]

In Politics Mafia, he defended a townread by saying things like "You'd rather lynch obv. VI than no-lynch? Noted." and "I'm rather pissed at the people supporting a town lynch over no lynch. The flip of a night kill will be more beneficial than an inte wagon analysis; the town half was up their own ass with wagons." I find his logic in that game highly disagreeable, but it is consistent with his play here.

UNVOTE: Majiffy

However, it is still somewhat scummy that he repeatedly attacked Robo while stating he is town; even going so far as to vote him. This is NOT pro-town play. He could have been on a potential Robo lynch and claimed to have a town read on him at the same time. Unfortunately, while ISOing him, I also found instances of this. That is TERRIBLE play as Town or Scum.

You unvoted Majiffy and now you say he is at L-1?

nhammen voted Maffijy again in post 565