NG 1479: Somebody's Gonna Die! (OVER!)

[Espeonage]

/confirm

Hey guys. This is my first newbie game as an IC. It's my job to be here to field your questions, play well and make sure you guys have a great experience on this wonderful.

So a couple of little rules I'd like to impose.
1. If you don't know, ask. I will answer questions on theory as best I can. Of course I'm playing to win and I can be scum (totes not) but that shouldn't get in my way of being helpful.
2. Don't self vote. Just don't do it. You might not see a way out and not want to hold back the town, still don't self vote. I did it when I was a newbie and it ruins games. The trick here is that making someone have to hammer you gives the town more info than if you vote.
3. Have fun. This site is awesome, and you can help keep it that way.

As for reading that you can do. The wiki is a brilliant resource that has so much info for everyone. Take it all with a grain of salt and find what works for you. I could link to articles that work for me but everyone plays different, so just explore.

And Espe's number 1 tip. Using a tell to call someone scum is all well and good except that everyone drops them, finding out the mentality and motivation behind it that shows the real scum.

[Espeonage]

@newbies: If you haven't already, bookmark the page.

[Espeonage]

Vote: Edosurist

Seemed worried about the start time.

[Espeonage]

Btw, Dritan can be town for now. Alot of scum like to vote their buddies in RVS on impulse.

[Espeonage]

Played for quite a while. I played for a couple of years before coming to MS. I recently took most of a year off so I'm only starting to get back into the groove of it.

@inquiries: Just being clear on my thoughts. I'm perfectly happy to form town reads asap. Gives me stuff to orbit my reading around.

[Espeonage]

Sarcasm vote says "Wooooooooosh".

But seriously, Victor, I should ask because this is turning into a contentious point. Were you referring to me implying I was town or me implying Dritan was town? Because that seems like it will be important in this discussion.

[Espeonage]

So I absolutely caned myself at work today. (Was raining, I work door-to-door, slipped down a flight of tiled stairs, landed directly on my hip) So this isn't something I want to spend too much time dwelling on.

LA for a couple of days, until I'm in less pain

[Espeonage]

Okie dokies.

I'll be reading this over the next little while, expect a post before I go to bed tonight.

[Espeonage]

@Yuriko (#46): Townreads can be just as important as scum reads, I was sticking him in the town pool for a bit, RVS is where you start to build reads, so that is what I was setting out to do.
@Edo (#48): I don't like the lining up lynches on page 2. The tone also didn't suggest any sort of joking so scumpile for now.

[Espeonage]

Page 3:

Not seeing the Drone stuff people are talking about as scummy.
@ No Lynch discussion: The way the numbers work, and this has been discussed by people much smarter than I, is that it's better to lynch in all but a few scenarios. The reasoning having a few supporting reasons.
1. We can learn stuff from townies dying. Having someone's posts and knowing that they were town making all the more useful.
2. Having an even number of players alive in the day makes lynching harder and much easier to be swayed by the scum because of the way majorities work with even numbers of people.
3. You can't know for certain what alignment a role is without role related information. You don't know if that person might be scum.
4. And the big one. Town has only one way to win the game. And that is to lynch all the scum. If town stops lynching then they throw away the only way they can win.

And that is why we aren't going to no lynch.

This might be Conf Bias talking but I'm seeing Edo playing in a super conservative, make sure everyone thinks I'm helping way, which is how I like to play scum.

I like HITD for town though. Void is solidly null.

Pedit: Cheers. :p

[Espeonage]

Wow I missed a page.
Okie Day.

Tomorrow. Dead late.

[Espeonage]

Lol beat the prod by seconds. Point taken.

[Espeonage]

Victor V HITD seems town v town.

[Espeonage]

Point of newbie games is to learn. Void seem genuine, from my view anyway.

[Espeonage]

It's not, but tone and intention is the point of any read. Tells have no weight without motivation. A point I made early that you so kindly quoted in the same post. Void is a perfect example of that exact point.

Look at his tone, try and throw out any conf bias as well.

Yeah, that true that I need to pick up my game. But at the moment I'm finding town tells. And I'm not really ready to go and say people I'm disagreeing with are scum because I'm not too able to tell if people spouting tells without motivational backing are just trying to spout tells to deceive or doing it because it is easy.

[Espeonage]

I mainly have a list of people I won't back a lynch on rather than will.

[Espeonage]

I mainly have a list of people I won't back a lynch on rather than will.

Mind to share?

It's pretty clairvoyant.

My favorite lynch is Edo I think.

[Espeonage]

Why do you think ed is a good lynch?

Just a good lynch, his early game came off as scum motivated.

[Espeonage]

Interested to see RC's take on happenings.

[Espeonage]

Newbie towns are always worried about sounding town. Which while not good practice, is incredibly common.

I feel like Void will be a mislynch as a result. His play similar to many other recent newbie towns that I've seen. Tbh, his play as scum should become apparent after a night phase if he was to have some coaching, even from another newbie. I'd save lynching void for an undetermined later date.
And RC's point about not addressing lurking: Every player that falls behind faces an uphill battle to get back.

@Case on me. I've yet to look at Dritan, and will probably do that this evening. And I'm not ready to mount an offense against your slot, mainly because I don't feel I have the presence to make an impact in this day phase. I have been out of it, yes, but lurking is not indicative of alignment. If I'd started lurking upon coming under pressure, then that would be a different story, but it was pretty much the opposite.
And why wouldn't I be dismissive, my iso is tiny. Pushing aside the fact that that isn't a good thing for the state of the game, it does mean that anything I've been thinking is super easy to find.

Btw guys. At the bottom of the page is a function that lets you search for a single players posts and read them in isolation (iso).

[Espeonage]

It's more a case of I was being asked about something which I felt was easy to work out without being asked.

[Espeonage]

@espe:

And why are you always

speculating

(lurking on) us?

I have no idea why I used that word. I thought it meant [watching from the side].

Because I'm playing my way in to the game. It's what I've found works best for me when I'm out of touch with a game. It's not an approach for everyone though.

[Espeonage]

@ Espe I just went meta diving. I call bullsh#t.

This is so far off your meta it has to be scum. Falling on your hip can't account for this change, head maybe.

If you can show me where you replaced in and your play was similar, I'll take it back.

What I think happened, you were exited about being IC for the first time. Then you got your role PM.
It said scum, and your sails deflated. You'd wanted to be Town.
You thought it'd be safer to Town hunt vaguely, but it got you caught.

Of course this is just one interpretation and is not verifiable at this time.

How far did you dive. I've been pretty decent recently because I'd been on top of everything. Try going back a bit. Marketplace 3 is very similar to here. I started strong after replacing then quickly faded, and was just starting to come back before I got lynched. Tbf, Test of Faith my play was the same as that as well and that was as Cult.

And yeah that's a pretty decent assumption and I can definitely see where that's coming from. I'm going to basically say I've just been out of it. I do regularly play myself back in to games I drop though. Brute forcing it will end worse though. When I try to do that it results in heavy flaking on my part which I really don't want to do in my IC game.

My townread of you is reflecting poor light on my already scummy read on RC's slot though. Very high potential of Conf bias and chainsaw here though.

(BTW: If any of you are feeling out of your depth in understanding what terms mean, let me know. Alot of the jargon can get overwhelming, so ask if you need the help.)

[Espeonage]

My objection to Void lynch is that he seems like lynch bait. Which is actually not as bad on day 1 as I'm making it out to be in my mind.

[Espeonage]

Standard practice is to post intent to hammer, then to wait for the person to be hammered to post final reads and claim if they haven't yet.

Some people on this site will policy lynch you if you hammer without letting them claim unless they refused to and couldn't/didn't make it back before deadline.

[Espeonage]

@Victor:
1. Conf Bias is short for conformation bias which is a logical fallacy in which someone only sees things in a way that confirms what they already think.
2. Chainsawing is using a chainsaw defense which is attacking someone as a means of defending someone else.

In the context of my post. Might be conf bias because it reiterates my already gathered reads, and chainsaw because there was a light attack on jon which sparked the posts that I was commenting on.

[Espeonage]

@Matti: Because nothing has changed in that regard. I've expressed that my read stands and has developed. I've also explained that I don't agree with the leading wagon.

[Espeonage]

I mean he's lynch bait in the sense that it was early suspicion that people have been able to flop onto with a minimum of fuss. If he does flip town, I will be looking long and hard at his wagon for scum.

If he's scum then that's a different kettle of fish. But the fact that he has been the main suspect for a long time generally points towards a townie that scum are sticking everything they can into lynching. Usually if a scum gets wagoned early, their buddy will apply pressure to get rid of the wagon and that hasn't happened with the Void wagon at all.

[Espeonage]

@jon: RC is not new in any way shape or form. So if you're going to go with anything, go with the it's intentional thought process.

[Espeonage]

Having a squizz at the thread tonight.

[Espeonage]

Void took a while to actually gain impetus to eventually get to lynch, with that in mind I think that there was at least one scum on the wagon.

jon has looked pretty good to me so far so Victor and chitmap are where I'll be looking to begin with.

[Espeonage]

Wagon analysis is when you use wagons and voting to determine people's alignment. It gets really useful lategame with lots of flips but it's always has an element of conjecture. If Void had just gone through quickly then it generally means that wagons analysis could go either way. I tend to think that when a wagon stalls at L-1 or L-2 it's because the scum are already on the wagon and aren't pushing it through. By the same token, if I lynch is going to happen then scum might try to stay off the wagon to not draw suspicion after the flip.

In this case though I'm of the opinion that a scum was an pusher of the Void lynch just because of the stall it had.

I haven't looked yet to see if anyone had no reasoning for being on him, but that's what I'll be searching for now that I've identified some suspects.

[Espeonage]

@the jon thing: I haven't looked yet, but people voting my town reads isn't something that I see as scummy, difference of opinion is a thing.