Newbie 1732 [Game Over!]: InnocentVille

[Cass]

Hi all! I am the new Jibs. I read the game during night and have some first impressions. But I'd like to ponder the implications of this night and our current situation before posting them. In the meantime, do you guys have questions for me?

[Cass]

Ok, first impressions (from my notes before knowing about the lack of NK - but after thinking about it, I don't see it changing things):

The scummiest: Rocnix/Drone. Both players gave me that impression, but what cinched it was Drone saying that 0x40 'feels like a policy lynch' (post 474), (Also sorry, I'll figure out how to properly link asap, this is my first game in seven years so I'm rusty...). And in his previous post, 444, he said:

A mislynch would be really distasteful on day 1, but you are the only lead right now.

This combined with my first impression and the fact that 0x40 was town makes that sound like a scum knowing that 0x40 will flip town. So, that's my best case so far.

VOTE: Drone

- Implosion next, because he has some votes on him now. He is a null read for me, so far. I just noticed he votes a lot - I like that, but don't think it's a tell.
- ThenewEarth: Also null. Looking forward to her play on day 2.
- Penguin and Shannon I lean town on.
- Astralfire seemed weakly scummy.
- Chrimi would be my second suspect, I got a mixed read on her. Her words sounded like town, but her voting pattern on day 1 could make sense for scum. And her role speculation post today was a bit weird too.

FoS: Chrimi

[Cass]

@Drone. No, my impression wasn't that the wagon was scum-driven. More that they sat back and let it happen. The lynch didn't strike me as weird , just a typical day 1 lynch based mainly on annoyance / nearing deadline. I suspect I would have hammered it too, had I been there. Like you said, there weren't really any better candidates.

However: you were the only one expressing regret even before it happened, and still defending it now. So I'm happy to keep my vote on you.

[Cass]

No point in actually hiding that fact

Hell that's the most anti-town shit you can pull especially when it reaches later days

Could you explain why? I haven't played this set-up before, and at first glance this sounds like it might help scum. (This might be a stupid question, but would scum even know why their NK failed? And if not, isn't it better to keep them guessing?)

[Cass]

@ tne: I really need you to explain your reasoning for demanding that roleclaim. It doesn't make sense to me right now and I'm inclined to agree with Shannon.

@Chrimi: I need you to explain your reasoning for the claim too. What made you conclude this was the optimal moment for it?

[Cass]

Okay, Implosion's points on PP's behaviour is convincing and shows me he is a little shady. Kind of slipped under my radar when I've been skimming through day 1.
Now that I think of it, he could very much be the scum I've been concerned of "directing" the wagon on 0x40.
But he didn't raise the fire on 0x40.. I need to check his ISO. Never know what else I might find.

Chrimi's claim, although uncc'ed, is a bit off to me.
FoS: Chrimi.
Why would you roll with tne on the claim request?
Chrimi was quite actively producing flames on 0x40's, but she doesn't seem to be bashing just about anyone, 0x40's was bash - worthy too..

Vote: Cass.
Don't get me wrong, it's not an omgus vote. You didn't answer my question which directly refers to something you addressed.
Rather quickly your attention turned to Chrimi and tne, after you voted me.
I anticipate your answer about Rocnix. Don't ignore something you started.

This post makes you sound even more like scum. Not because of the vote on me, but because of the spreading of suspicions: agreeing with Implosion on PP first, questioning Chrimi's claim - while not showing anything she said or did to cause doubt, except for the claim itself. And then finishing with a vote on me, for ignoring a question? No, until I read what TNE has to say for herself, I'm keeping my vote on you. It expresses the fact that I'm pretty convinced you are scum.

I take it this is the question you mean:

What you say does make sense, but as it is wrong and a bit twisted, it's invalid.
Do you have more points? Something explaining Rocnix's scumminess perhaps?
I might not be able to speak for her, but I want to know.

(What I say makes sense but is also wrong, twisted and invalid? Right...) I need to do an ISO to answer the actual question, which is a good idea anyways, and so I will. Just can't promise it's today.

@Chrimi: I'm not sure that logic quite works out, but as long as there is no CC I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt. We can re-evaluate on day 3 (or, those of us still alive can...)

[Cass]

PBP analysis for Rocnix (now replaced by Drone):
11, 15, 19, 31 - RVS: votes Chrimi, quickly unvotes when she self-votes. Careful player? No real content.
44 - Some opninions, but kinda bla, mostly stating the obvious and agreeing with others. Game was still very early, so doesn't mean much.
81 - Votes 0x40 to make him participate more. (Would be a safe move for careful scum.)
161 - A readslist as requested by Jibs (my predecessor). Reads Jibs (me) and Chrimi as slightly town, the rest as neutral, some weak suspicion at Implosion.

My vote will stay on 0x40 since he's not really at risk of being lynched and I would like to hear more from him.

173 - Questions 0x40 about what he thinks of Chrimi's and TNE's reactions to his attacks on them.
174 - Asks Penguin about his vote on AF.
176 - no content
184 - ah, a big juicy one. Distrusts Jib's townread on her, but decides he's townish after all. Distrusts Implosion in general (gutread). Impressed by Shannon, speculates she's either scum or a power role (Ding! Ding! Scum alarm!). Reads Chrimi as frustrated town. AF weak town. TNE detached, null. PP fake newbie (?), weak scumread. 0x40 opportunistic, moderate scumread. Then speculates about 0x40 possible scumpartner: shannon, penguin, or AstralFlare. (Not really consistent with the reads before, but assuming a scum-Rocnix who knows 0x40 is town I am not sure what to read in this. Will def look back on this one if Drone flips scum though.)

Ok, gtg now. Will do the rest later.

[Cass]

OK, here's a question for everyone. All else being equal, at the end of D1, who did you think would be the D2 lynch and why?

My personal pick would have been Drone even then, see my second post (506), who became my favorite when 0x40 flipped town. That's just based on my read. Based on general voting tendencies I'd say TNE, who was a null read at that point and right now hangs in the balance afaic. Please speak up, TNE.
I am not sure about this PP wagon, Implosions case has not convinced me. I'll ISO both when I have more time.

[Cass]

Ok, yes, running out of patience:

UNVOTE: Drone
VOTE: The New Earth

[Cass]

I don't expect a CC anymore, i believe everyone has seen the claim now and had their chance, and am pretty sure a real RB would have cc-ed. Leaving the options that Chrimi is really RB or that there is no RB and she's doing a scum gambit.

So, please explain asap, TNE. How is it solveable and why should a RB claim in this situation?

[Cass]

EBWOP: Erm, read BP where I said RB.

[Cass]

Do you mean you want to lynch Chrimi today? Because you also just called her a pseudo-innocent-child, right? Or just that you would have had the claim come on a later day?

For now, because of 568 which makes sense:

UNVOTE: The New Earth

Would like to hear everyones opinion about this situation.

[Cass]

@ Astral Flare:

@Cass&Drone: As replacements, I'm interested to hear your thoughts on the people who have been playing since the start. This doesn't have to be a thirty quote supported readlist, but I would appreciate a sense of the general feeling you have towards everyone. Just a lean town/null/lean scum would be good enough.

You mean, like my post 506? Or do you mean an update of that? Or something else?

[Cass]

The rest of my pbp on Rocnix:
239 - Accuses Jib of buddying, but not really. Weird post. Maybe weakly setting Jibs up in case she gets lynched and flips scum? (admittedly this is getting farfetched)
240, 244, 247 - Questions 0x40 a bit and defends Jibs from 0x40. Also hints that it would be a policy lynch; first instance of distancing herself from the imminent townie-lynch - just like Drone did!
262, 263 - Unvotes 0x40 because their omgus attack on jibs looks townie. Votes TNE because of null read. (This is a good vote.) Asks for guidance to play better.
269 - Explains to Jibs that she doesn't think 0x40 is scum anymore and that she tries not to alienate people. (Hmm. Insecure newbscum?)
271 - This one I can't quite parse. She seems to dispute the possibilty of being Chrimi's scum-partner and suggesting she would more likely be 0x40's partner?? That doesn't make sense, so I might be reading it wrong.
286 - Defends himself from PP who called him scummy. Pretty weak defense, also basically calls himself bad at the game as an excuse. Newbscum vibes again (or honest insecure newbtown). Lol, now Jibs is coaching her to make a case on him and vote him, even telling him who he might be able to convince. Rocnix recoild from this, smelling a trap, looks back anyways, doesn't see a case and declares Jibs town for helping her learn. (Feels like careful / insecure newbscum again.)
288 - Unvotes TNE because no wagon is happening. Makes a case on implosion that boils down to imp being passive and unhelpful. A bit flimsy, but ok for a day 1 case. Votes Imp.
297 - Unvotes Imp after he defends himself. Votes TNE again, planning to force a response this time. And this sets of alarmbells: Asks Shannon who she expects to be NK-ed. Pretty scummy question, but so obviously so that it actually seems unlikely for scum to do. Wifom? Slip?
303 - Explains that he asked Shannon because he reads her as scum or PR. Making it worse! Alarm bells!
306, 307 - Retracts the question after being called scummy over it, claiming it is due to other playstyles on other sites. And that she was trying to get more information about night 1 and to try and catch scum in lies. (Maybe... But no, not buying it.)
308 - Retires fot the night, to wake up entirely refreshed as Drone

So... How does everyone else feel about this? Do you hear the same alarm bells I do? Or just an insecure newb-town who's being very awkward?

[Cass]

And now for Drone:
437 - Enters with a really weird post. Looks like he's calling 0x40 not scum. Then throws some suspicion on Chrimi for voting behavior. Then ends with a FoS on 0x40 because he isn't claiming. Huh? Also, guessing English isn't you first language?
444 - Defends his playstyle. Then this (I quoted it before):

A mislynch would be really distasteful on day 1, but you are the only lead right now.

Distancing from what he (if scum) already knows is a mislynch.

Twilight has started now

474 - More of the same (Note: this is before the flip!)

In the end, the day ends up with what appears to be a policy lynch.

475 - Says bye to Jibs
481 - Asks TNE what she thinks 0x40 will flip. (Dunno... just making conversation with who was there?)
484 - Quoting the whole of this, since it's 100% distancing from mislynch:

Well, his behaviour seemed to hold the investigations down since he wouldn't let go and distract us all.
This feels like a policy. Him surviving the day would have surely made day 2 even harder. I know I Mostly noticed his provocative post when reading the 400 posts I read.
Speaking of which I might missed very important plays, I need to reread.
I know you thought at first he is scum, but now it's pretty obvious that's it's a vi, bad play, and his being convinced he knows it all better.

485 - Asks Shannon about her scum-list (narrowing down the NK options?)

Now Day 2 starts, no NK

504 Welcomes me, asks me if I see scum driving the D1 lynch. Still defending the lynch as a policy one:

As for mine and 0x40's case: I still call this a "policy" lynch. The way he was too obviously attacking everyone who didn't cooperate with him means he'd either be a terrible mafia trying to get a lynch asap, or a dull skilled towny who's trying really really hard/ showing off writing skills.

I too somewhat wanted to ask Jibs personally a few questions, but that won't happen.
So I'd sum up my thoughts of 0x40 wagon:
1) of all players, 0x40 was the distraction and could actually worsen day 2 if he was alive.
2) at some point, I believe a scum started directing the lynch (although not sure which).
When I say "directing" I mean, actively directing fire at him, as he already was the easiest and weakest candidate for a simple elimination.

And preparing a case on anyone on the wagon, but leaves it to other to point fingers? Still hearing those alarm bells.
505 - Oh, 'maybe' will name possibilities himself.
512 - Defends himself against my case on him. Not scummy in itself, but it feels dishonest (gut) and it sits a bit wrong that he ignores my other reads.
513, 516, 518 - no content
536, 537, 538 - Kinda agrees with Imp on the PP case, but also kinda dismisses it since he wasn't on the 0x40 wagon (not sure if reading this right?). Distrusts Chrimi's claim, sees she was actively on the wagon, gives her a FoS. Then Votes me for not (yet) answering a question, and for turning my attention quickly to TNE and Chrimi. (Who meanwhile had started a role-claim thing! It's distracting!) This seems really flimsy reasoning for a vote when there's also a roleclaim happening that you don't trust. Like, weird priorities. But not scum (unless Chrimi is his gambiting partner, but I'm assuming the claim is true).
560 - again distancing from 0x40 lynch. Many null reads, including me (but keeps vote on me, though started answering the original 'unanswered question' by now - doesn't comment on this fact now. Not that interested after all? Keeps door open for voting PP later, or maybe AF, Chrimi, me or TNE (once there's a wagon/deadline?) Read on Chrimi is pretty weird considering the claim should make it a pretty binary situation. This post is not reassuring at all.

[Cass]

Feeling a bit awkward right now about not voting, but I'm torn.
- A PP vote would put him on L-1, I'm not convinced he is scum so not willing to do that. Should do another ISO, because his day 1 made me lean town on him.
- A Drone vote - I want to, but Implosion's switch to him makes me wary. Need to figure out why.
- Part of me wants to put the vote the vote back on TNE, as she's being infuriating and even the IC can't make sense of her reasoning. But the other part of me is still optimistinc that she'll clear it all up and really can solve the game (but how??).

I need to think about this. I want Drone to talk, TNE to talk, if there is an actual CC it'd better happen now - though I don't really understand why TNE would still expect one.

[Cass]

Reasons why claiming BP now is better than with fewer people:

1) Destroys LyLo WIFOM of "who the real BP is", which is very a very common mistake BPs do
2) Limits fake claims where either, the real PR and the CC both die, which gives +1 unexplainable kill for scum, or, outs a more useful PR completely. Lets face it, not only is BP useless, its more anti-town than pro-town.
3) Pseudo-Innocent Child. Always helps
4) JK is strong, Tracker is stronger. You heard me right. Tracker is strong. On a matrix6 setup, anyways. You just need a bit of logic.

Weaker reasons why BP should claim on D1 when their PR is used

1) Better NK speculation
2) 70% of people would lynch the BP on MyLo. Its a thing that BP is the most anti-town claim in the universe

It makes some sense, but not really when I think it over. Claiming on D3 makes sense (in our situation), that is: claiming before LyLo. But, in this situation, the BP would not even know they were targeted! There could have been some other target + a Jailkeeper. Nor wpould scum know the difference, right? So it seems much better to me to keep them wondering for another night and claim after that. (I'm still willing to be convinced that I am missing something.)

Also yes I'm one of those persons who want BP claims to be lynched
Which is Ironic because I once claimed BP and won because of it

This still doesn't make sense.

Do you mean you want to lynch Chrimi today? Because you also just called her a pseudo-innocent-child, right? Or just that you would have had the claim come on a later day?

For now, because of 568 which makes sense:

UNVOTE: The New Earth

Would like to hear everyones opinion about this situation.

I want to but I don't need to

In combination with this. You want to lynch her (now? or at some other point?). But you don't need to? Why?? Are you assuming she'll be the NK? Or that you will be? This only makes sense if you're hinting some knowledge of other power roles, but even then I can't make it fit together or make sense of you push to claim.
Or did you mean by PR-solvable that Scum can work out the roles from certain claims?

[Cass]

One more question, TNE: Who do you think should be lynched today? Chrimi? And assuming that won't happen (very likely), who then?

[Cass]

I really doubt Tne is going to give more answers. Yet, like implosion, I'm very hesitant to call her scum for it (yet). Because a) it's such reckless play, unusual for scum and b) she might well see something I don't, since I have no experience with this set-up. So I don't really want to lynch her today, but would rather have more information first. Though that also means t.aking a risk, but then again taking risks is usually necessary to win, hence my current uncertainty.

Question for everyone: if today were the deadline, do you think we should lynch tne?

My answer: in that case, right now, I'd rather take the risk and lynch Drone instead. So, to reflect that:
VOTE: Drone

[Cass]

Tne, what would be your top three of people to lynch today?
Anyone else feel free to post a top three too.

[Cass]

I might use FoS if I want to dealy lynch or l-1, but would more likely just say so. I use FoS more often if I see someone do a single very scummy thing, then turn it into a vote if they don't provide a good explanation.

[Cass]

Hm, I think if TNE is scum, it's with Chrime, and they set up the current situation together. But if so, at least one of us would know Chrime was lying. It's not impossible, but for today I'm going with assuming this is not the case.

So, under that assumption (meaning I'm ignoring Chrime and tne for now), my lynch-top three is:
- Drone
- Implosion
- Astral Flare

And I wouldn't mind if we started speeding it up. If TNE isn't going to clarify herself today - am I right about that impression, tne? Then I think we won't get more information by dragging this out. But day 3, we might just have much more to go on.

@PP stop lying low and give us some reads and a vote please.

@AF I would really like to see your top three too. What are your opinions of Implosion and Drone?

@Implosion If deadline was imminent, would you 'try' to lynch drone? Or do you see a smarter choice?

@shannon would you in general be ok with delaying a TNE lynch until Day 3, or do you feel it is too risky?

@thenewearth: do you also feel this day will yield no more information than it already has?

@Chrimi: What do you think are the odds that tne is scum? What is your scum top three?

@Drone: Do you think that if Chrime is scum, tne would be her partner and vice versa? Would you mind voting someone that looks like a good lynch for today?

[Cass]

This might be foolish, and I have no evidence - but I really don't think TNE is scum. I don't think we should lynch her today, considering the numbers we better get scum.

Drone sounds much more townish in her recent posts.

I'm thinking Implosion might be the best lynch for today, or maybe Astralflare. When I have more time, I'll ISO both of these and Drone again - killing town could really hurt us in this situation, so i want to be somewhat convinced. And also Jibs, to see if I can answer Drone's question about him. Might not be today, though. So I'd rather we don't lynch anyone yet, ok?

UNVOTE: Drone for now. Not that there's much of a risk, but the gesture seems appropriate.

[Cass]

Also lynch implosion plz

I'm starting to really like this option. And if he flips scum, we can lynch Drone next (and win??). Seriously, unless tne is playing us hard, imp/drone is starting to look like the obvious scumteam. And in that case, an implosion lynch is our best move now.

VOTE: Implosion

[Cass]

imp/drone is starting to look like the obvious scumteam.

Implosion - reasons already given, though TNE suggesting we lynch him puts me off a bit. I still like these two for a team

I'm going to call you scum partners with PP that's what.

I know I've said this like five times at this point but people REALLY seem to love trying to tie me to people.

Pre-flip associations are really, really bad. I know some of these are just people fosing me and someone else separately but it seems like people are just making connections between me and half of the playerlist. Which is really objectively bad, because if I'm scum I'm scum with exactly one other player. I'm reminded of something from my very first newbie game on this site six years ago. On day one, someone (who was town) made an ordered list of the players based on how much information we would get by lynching them. The very last two people on that list were scum, which was ironic because they were arguing that lynching for information is good. Obviously I'm not being argued as an information lynch but the point is that having ties to other players doesn't make someone scum; often it's the opposite, and scum (especially experienced scum) are going to avoid making obvious connections to their partners. Which is why seeing three people tying me to three different people as scum with them, and then a fourth (tne) arguing that I'm scum for literally zero reason and essentially not playing the game, is frustrating.

Weak defense, trying to distract us? The associations are not the reason for the wagon on you, exactly because of the lack of flips. I don't see any player not aware of this. It may seem that way to you, but not to me - but tbh you sound so unconvinced about this yourself that it confirms all my bad feelings about your alignment.

I can promise you, if you flip scum I'll re-evaluate all possible connections tomorrow with an open mind and I will not impulsively lynch Drone. Btw, How do you feel about Drone's 'intent to hammer' post? And just how convinced are you (as a percentage) that TNE is scum? Could you describe for us a logical line of reasoning behind scum!tne's actions today? Who would make the most sense as her partner, and why?

[Cass]

I tend to think AF's vote on me (and his recent play in general) pings townish but Cass's looks extremely opportunistic, particularly if tne is also town; there's a lot of very disparate pressure on me as I just pointed out, and as everyone has pointed out I'm doing much more than tne so if we're both town I'm a more desirable mislynch (and my mislynch would also potentially set up a tne mislynch tomorrow, again assuming we're both town). Like, with mounting pressure from AF and tne (and elsewhere), Cass's vote on me is really an obvious move for her to make if she's scum.

The main point that's been made about me is that I've been misrepresenting things, but as I've pointed out I don't gain things as scum by intentionally misrepresenting things that can be factually proven wrong. That just isn't how I approach the game as scum; I don't try to manipulate what things factually happened in the game to my advantage. It's a silly approach as scum because if one person sees what you're doing then they can catch you. I've misread and misremembered things; it happens.

Something else about Cass's play pings me as off but I can't put my finger quite on it. Someone (maybe AF?) called her obvtown earlier; I'd appreciate if they could justify that.

Ehm... this is very twisted logic. I mean, if you are town, and tne is town, and I am scum - why would I not simply push the tne lynch? Encourage Drone to hammer, or hell... do it myself! I simply don't want her lynched, because I think she's town. And oddly, I feel much the same about your play, as you do about mine. The reasons may be opposite- you strike me as too careful, non-committal. I may strike you as the opposite?

Still thinking about your previous post, about connections - since you point it out yourself: You may be consciously playing this way to avoid strong links to any other player (or rather, a specific other player :p ), and this is what causes you to be linked to three or four different 'partners' by three or four different players? But I don't want to over-analyze this before we have a flip.

Unrelated question: Do you think now would be a good time for a lynch, or would a longer day benefit town more?

[Cass]

This is interesting. I am going to defend myself, but I don't want to rush it and I have too little time now to do it justice - so don't quicklynch me, mkay? (In fact only consider lynching me if you are pretty sure I am scum, a mislynch now will lead to a highly dangerous situation on day 3.)

I'd also like to her AF's and PP's thoughts on this wagon against me, and on Implosion's case against me.

[Cass]

Two things I can say quickly:

- Implosions case on me (wich I will respond to in detail, I promise) reads null to me. A townie would do that just the same way as a scum. As scum he needs me off his case and dead. As town, he needs to not be lynched and I was aggressively attacking him.
- Drone's reaction is very much what scum would do (my assumption here is he's scum and thus knows I'm not) - testing the waters to see if this one is going to take off fast, positioning to help with that.

UNVOTE: Implosion

VOTE: Drone

Not because Implosion looks better, but because Drone lookes worse.

[Cass]

Wtf is this game??

@Drone - you're not even trying anymore, or what? How am I bussing tne by making cases on you and explosion, having drone/imp/pp as scum top three and refusing to lynch her today? Was that a scumslip about you bussing her?

A jailkeeper claim, oh why... Oh my. I guess that means we don't lynch Shannon or Chrimi now. Btw, I thought I had spotted breadcrumbing for tracker from shannon, but w/e. Doesn't matter anymore now.

So scum is either TNE, or whoever targeted her, right? Oh, or neither, if Chrimi was the target. Jeeze, this really isn't helping. Shannon just got herself needlessly nk-ed is what it looks like to me.

[Cass]

Nah, it seems more likely they both are telling the truth, wich means we have a goon and a roleblocker, and we really need to lynch that roleblocker to salvage this mess. So don't lynch me, because I'm just a VT (since we're all claiming... And I'm at L-1... Not that this claim changes anything), and killing another townie, especially before talking over the current mess leaves town in a pretty hopeless situation next day.

The most likely situation is indeed that tne is scum and was prevented from killing - but that's just statistics and not enough for me to base a lynch on.

@drone - your little list shows me going back and forth between my top two scum reads, plus one vote on tne for pressure. There's nothing scummy aboit it, and I'm not ashamed of my behavior. It just reflects my changing perceptions, since at no point was either of you about to be lynched.

[Cass]

@pp
Instead of haunting Implosion could you please do something useful? If I'm not wrong, Cass is at L-1.
Are you okay with the Cass wagon? If not speak up why. If yes, consider questioning her while intending to hammer.

!!
Someone tell me if I'm paranoid, but doesn't this sound terribly like scum signaling to his partner that it is time to quick-hammer? I realize I'm biased, because it was me almost getting killed here, but still... Can we please lynch Drone today? We might even get lucky and have him flip RB.

And yes, this might mean Imp is town after all, though based on how this wagon on me went I'd say it's 50/50 between pp and imp, and I'll rethink it tomorrow.

The only lynch I'm 'lining up' is Drone, if we lynch someone else now, because I am so sure he is scum.

I'm pretty sure shannon, chrime, af and tne are town. 50/50 on imp&pp and convinced Drone is scum. So it looks simple to me, yay. Well, who to lynch does. The rest of this game looks like a hot mess.

[Cass]

That might be true, it does worry me, yet I can't see a way out of it now. I have only drone/imp/pp as possible scum now. And when I iso imp or pp I don't see them as a likely pair (imp 387; 531, penguin 711) so that brings me back to Drone again. And on this recent wagon on me, Drone looks reaaly bad, or is that really just me and my confbias?

[Cass]

I checked Chrimi day 1. No serious interactions with Rocnix/Drone, some with Implosion, Astralflare, PP (and others, not trying to be complete here) - bottomline: she does make sense as NK target, and definitely if I'm right about one of PP and Imp being scum. Tne as kill target doesn't really make sense.

Now say TNE is scum (not saying I think so, but as an experiment). What happened then? She sends in the kill (for whoever, it's irrelevant in this case). The kill fails, because shannon JK's her; but that she doesn't know. She would know that there is a RB on her team (because we assume Chrime and Shannon are both telling the truth), so now she really, really wants to know what set-up she is in. The one with the doc/cop or the one with BP/JK.
Pushing for a BP is in fact the safest way to find out quickly, huh. If anyone does, she has her answer. Now, the odds are she did NOT target Chrime N1 - and so she knows she has a problem and it would be best for her to get Chrime lynched, but it would look very suspicious to push for it. She hates the Shannon claim, because it is very bad for her. If that hadn't happened, she would have NK-ed Shannon and coasted along.

So, this scenario makes a lot of sense...

In the other version, TNE is a VT. She sees there is no NK in N1 and gets worried there might be a BP. She has bad experiences with late game BP claims losing the game for town (or winning for scum), so she wants that claim and possible counterclaim asap. She says she 'wants to lynch the BP but doesn't need to now', that remark is still mysterious to me, because at that point she could not know which set-up we were in (as VT). She hates the Shannon claim, because it gives scum more information (? not sure that's why, don't mean to misrepresent).

It's possible, at least the part about wanting an early BP claim makes sense for town.

Well, the scum!tne scenario seems more logical, in fact I have almost convinced myself :p Maybe I need to sleep on this game or something, because right now it feels like a thorny maze.

[Cass]

Also, if Chrimi is lying, we must be in row 1 (2 goons, 1 JK) and in that case TNE is her partner and they planned this together to find the JK (and it worked). This scenario would also lead to a TNE lynch today.

Thinking all these scenario's through makes me understand why Shannon claimed and I now support the decision. I see no way Shannon won't be the NK so it's good she spoke up today.

[Cass]

AF, my wording may have been too vague, but I am in fact agreeing with you that Chrimi does make sense as a target.

[Cass]

So, if we kill TNE and she is scum, Shannon

must

target Chrimi, in case we are in row 1. Maybe someone said this before, but it's very important.

Crazy thought: would it make sense to no-lynch today? We'd still have 1 mislynch left and a little bit more information to work with. It'd probably do more harm than good, but I'd like some thoughts about it.

[Cass]

I think you missed what I was pointing out. It's nothing to do with vote moving on anyone's part. It's that AF makes a big deal about how Chrimi would have been a good N1 target because Chrimi was conf town - but Chrimi didn't claim BP until D2. So that point is false and I think it comes from Scum AF trying to help Scum Chrimi.

Shannon, there is no logical scenario where Chrimi is scum and Tne is town (because of your jailkeeping) - or do you see one I'm missing?

[Cass]

Is that L-1?

@Mod: can we have a votecount please?

[Cass]

That absolutely makes sense - leaving her alive makes me as nervous as killing her.

I'd kinda like to hear a defense from her before we hammer, but don't know if she's planning to. Say, something TNE, if you're town. Even if it's just that you won't talk anymore.

The only thing I can really say against this lynch is that if she's scum, she would not be the roleblocker, right? Because with two scum the roleblocker would block and the other one kill, right? I don't mean to sound dumb or lamist, just tell me if this is not how this set-up works. And it would be really great to kill the roleblocker now, but I realize those odds are not good and going to Lylo with this much uncertainty is terrible.

[Cass]

Chrimi could be the roleblocker, the roleblocker can kill and block at the same time in this setup - it's in the rules on the front page.

Where? Seriously, iIlooked for it and looked again, and I don't see it. I know the roleblocker can do both when it's alone, but also when both scum are alive? I do believe you, I just feel blind or something now.

[Cass]

Ebwop: NM, I didn't scroll down far enough. I looked under rules but it's under set-up, below the matrix. Sorry. Ignore me.

[Cass]

Well, that's sorta good, because it means there's a chance that TNE is also the roleblocker (if a tiny chance, considering everything else, but better than zero).

I do have another worry about his lynch, though it might be a hindsight thing: it seemed fairly likely to me that Shannon was a PR, even before she claimed. The breadcrumb I saw was in day 1 too. So, the odds are higher than random that scum spotted the same and roleblocked her. I don't think we covered that situation yet? Because it would mean tne is town. But there is no way to find this out.

Ack, there's a lot of guesswork and a lot of assumptions going into this, but TNE feels like 50/50 odds to me now. Which is better than random, so I'm ok with the lynch. Willing to hammer, but not before giving TNE a chance to say something.

[Cass]

IMHO having an alt account totally matters in a game like this. It's not like you're

playing a hunter instead of a mage

and that gives you different abilities. Unless you're faking a whole other personality, an alt in mafia only serves to obscure yourself to get an advantage over players who might otherwise recognise your style and your tells.

Snipping and bolding by me. After there were other hints about you being a PR / everyone calling you obvtown, I looked back and saw this and interpreted it as tracker, which later meshed with the BP claim and so solidified it in my mind (but jailkeeper fits too, I suppose). And now you are going to tell me that post was absolutely meaningless, probably
Still, I can well see scum reading it as breadcrumbing and roleblocking you just in case.

And unless we kill the RB now, I don't see you surviving the night, no.

[Cass]

All I'm seeing is clearing chrimi's name and that seems a waste

This is absolutely not why I support this wagon, nor is it true. A town flip would only semi-clear Chrimi. My reason is that after all the possible scenario's I estimate it's about 50/50 odds of you being scum. Did you even look at those, or are you just indifferent to this game? What is the most likely scenario in your opinion? Who should we lynch if you flip town, still Implosion?

[Cass]

Give me a TL;DR

How many names do I clear when I townflip?

I am not lynching you (well, expressing willingness to) to have you flip town and clear people, but in strong hopes you'll flip scum. That is the scenario where things are cleared up. If town, I'm just back at Drone (+imp or pp) with even more conviction. I really hope that doesn't happen.

[Cass]

We'll also have a much clearer read on the responses day 2. And you'll have to admit there's strong case to be made against you here:

- If scum, you had a strong incentive (after failed NK) to force roleclaims, and fast. Asking for BP was the safest way tot do that for scum.
- If scum, your flipping out after Shannon claims could be genuine anger, because she just really hurt your chances by claiming a JK on you.
- You were Jailkept and there was no NK - like Shannon says, kinda like the BP claim for late game problems, and it'll be late game tomorrow. Without that info, you'd porbably not be in this position now.

[Cass]

I'm not. It'd be much better to lynch scum and not go into lylo. Still got my vote somewhere else for a reason. The reason I can sort of support the lynch is that by logical deduction, there is a real chance that tne is scum. But I can't quite make myself believe it (by gut / intuition). However, if we're going to lynch a townie, it'd best be tne - because going into lylo with her alive seems very risky. So, that's the fence I'm sitting on.
I want to lynch scum much more than I want (ambiguous at best) information. And preferably that roleblocker. How about lynching Implosion then? I like that risk better, and better odds of getting the RB. (I'd still be ok with a Drone lynch too, but support for that looks lower.) But can enough people agree on anyone besides TNE? Because time is running out and no lynch does not look better.
UNVOTE: Drone
VOTE: Implosion

[Cass]

better odds of getting the RB

why do you say so?

Because she was Jailkept. I'd guess that scum like to spread risks when they can, and have one kill, the other roleblock. Not 100%, but seems logical. Also, if TNE is scum, her partner(who ever that is, I don't know and haven't really considered it) must have been bussing her at some point. (Unless it's me... but I know I'm not.) That also reduces the chance she is the RB on that team.
If Implosion is scum he'd be a dangerous scum either way, being or coaching the RB. (Also, scummier imo, so better odds to begin with.)

But can enough people agree on anyone besides TNE? Because time is running out and no lynch does not look better.

Agreed. The only circumstance in which I will advocate for a tne lynch is one in which there's less than two days on the dateline and town hasn't coalesced around a target. Failing that, I am open to a lynch on any of implosion, Drone, PP.

That's fine with me. I'll leave the tne hammer, as requested - and if it happens - to Shannon.

[Cass]

Giving note that my internet connection is being dysfunctional. I hope it gets fixed soon, but if I seem to disappear, that's why.

[Cass]

Well, that's it for PR information. We'll have to do this the old-fashioned way...

And calmly consider all our options, now there is no room for mistakes anymore. First, the easy one:

- No lynch: I understand the numbers, and it can be an option if we can't agree on anything else, but I don't think this wil help town now. My guess is scum kill me, AF or Chrimi. None of those improve the situation much - maybe slightly if it's Chrimi, but scum has no need to kill her so probably won't - and, no. It doesn't help.
- Lynch me: Town loses, so no.
- Lynch Chrimi: I'm pretty sure she is honest, so town would lose. No. Even more convinced by her willingness to vote already.
- Lynch anyone else: my gut says AF is town, Drone and Implosion still look like scum (Implosion current favorite), but PP's silence makes me paranoid. I need to do some rereading. Maybe build a case on everyone, to see what I can dig up.

Also, as of today, looking at connections / scumpairs is totally ok. So I'll be doing that too.

@AstralFlare: there was really no reason for scum to risk keeping Shannon alive. The danger to them was that we could lynch the RB today. Now it doesn't matter anymore. I'm torn on whether your post makes you even more townie, or opens the possibility of clever scum.

However, I think this is ok, and a good place for my vote:
VOTE: Implosion

[Cass]

@Mod: Love the flavor!

[Cass]

If this is MyLo, why are we starting a wagon on someone so early unless you have strong feelings that they are scum? Couldn't scum just hop on the wagon and win?

Labor Day weekend festivities took me away, but I'll catch up and post my thoughts. Until then, please unvote.

Sure, but since neither you or Drone did, the risk seems minimal. Just in case I'm utterly wrong here, I'll do as you ask.
UNVOTE: Implosion (For the record: I'm still pretty sure that he is scum.)

[Cass]

I did not lynch TNE for information, we knew beforehand that a town flip would not give much. I honestly hoped she'd flip scum, against my instincts. If I was scum with drone, why would I have opposed a tne lynch at all? I'd have pushed it through quickly and hammered much sooner. There was a perfectly convincing case to be made there, not that anyone really bothered.

So: PP, Chrimi, Astralflare - shall we lynch Drone today? I mean, he is being quite obvious now, amirite?

VOTE: Drone

[Cass]

@Chrimi: Funny, my 'townpool' is you, me and AF. Not good, though, except for whoever the scum really are.

@Everyone: Look, I'm being aggressive and sometimes a bit random on purpose. It's because so many here are being super careful and hard to read - there's no brilliant plan, but I try to get some responses to indeed let me read people better, to understand their choices better and be able to judge them. I was aware putting someone on L-2 carries a risk atm, but I chose to take that risk, just in case I could catch a scum or confirm a town. Risk taking right now is not scummy, because all scum have to do in this situation is sit back quietly, sip their drinks and wait until two townies agree on the wrong person - like maaaybe chrimi and implosion are doing here when discussing me - and note how Drone is also subtly pushing it. What I think is this is Drone & Imp quietly hoping AF or PP will jump on, and then it'll all be over very fast.
Now after I put a second vote on Implosion, Drone came in and voted AF. he mentioned it was L-2, but gave no opinion on that or on Implosion. PP came in and said L-2 was bad, didn't vote anyone. Then I took my vote off, just in case, because I really feel those posts support Implosion as scum, with Drone. And no, I wouldn't have taken that risk if I hadn't really thought he is scum.

But look what Drone does when he sees the situation: he notes it, then he makes a case on another (distracting), but carefully doesn't give any opinion on Implosion (distancing). Shouldn't he take a stance there, like: 'Take it off! He's probably town! We'll lose!' or: 'Hm, it should be fine, he's probably scum'.
PP only chips in to tell me to take it off, because he hasn't had time to read. This makes me think he's town - scum would just lurk a bit longer, check back in an hour to see if he can hammer - unless PP is scum with Implosion.

What we also learned, is that a Drone/PP scumteam is unlikely.

Now I should build an actual case - I know I haven't, and I'm sorry. Been pretty busy with RL stuff - too much rushed and tablet-posting recently. I hope to find the time tonight (about 4 hours from now) to make a proper post.

(Also at me being scum with Drone or Implosion - I want them both dead. And wtf would scum bus their partner in this situation - when town is already attacking town. Also Yuck @Implosion for keeping to throw that 'lining up lynches' crap on me to see if it will stick.)

[Cass]

Uh.. If you didn't notice, I thought Implosion did vote you and didn't want someone to hammer you before anyone else could do anything.
Rushing at these critical times is bad.

You mean you didn't want to be third on the wagon right after your buddy and were hoping for another townie vote first?

Besides, I said I believe you're scum with af, and explained why af is my current choice.
Also here's a new point: You take risks at a mylo? What would you gain from them if someone would have actually hammered Implosion? What kind of information is of use when the game is already over?

Trust me, I was keeping an eye on the game to unvote if necessary.

I push both of you and AstralFlare but very carefully. I do not hide it and happily admit it. I ship af/Cass mafia and want to lynch one of you. You didn't make any new point just elaborated literally what I've been doing and added some words to make it sound like scummy behaviour.

Do you understand how I (being town) can see this as you and implosion coordinating the lynch on me? The one that would win you the game? You know, assuming for the sake of the argument that you two were scum - it would make sense, no?

[Cass]

Right now if I were to make a guess I'd say cass/drone. Second would be a tossup between cass/af and cass/pp. But I really do think cass's play is scummy.

So... basically you'd link me to anyone (except Chrimi, because doubting her got you under fire before...), as long as it gets me lynched, right? Because it takes only one mislynch right now, so who cares, right?

And it would be kind of silly for me to vote her at this point after I criticized her for voting so hastily. I do think this day deserves a bit more time before drilling down.

Yes, that would indeed be too obvious for you, not your style. Also, it's much smoother if another townie joins the wagon first. Btw, if you're going to lynch me, might as well do it quick. It really won't matter anymore how long the day was.

[Cass]

For those considering me as scum, ask yourself the following questions please:
- Why would I have resisted the Tne lynch as long as I did, if I knew she was town? I had a solid reasoning why scum would do what she did, as scum I would have pushed that hard and made it quick.
- Why would I have targeted (as scum) anyone but Shannon on Night 1, considering I believed she had breadcrumbed a PR?

[Cass]

Also, I started to make the big Imp post, but frankly I'm exhausted and can't keep my eyes open much longer. So sorry. Later.

[Cass]

Ok,mI completely understand all the arguments about how uncertainty right now is bad, and I'm not nearly as certain as I may seem. But here's where I am stuck at - and I'd love counter- arguments:

1. Drone/ Rocnix. The core thing here is all the talk about 0x40 being a policy lynch, repeatedly, and before the flip. I just really don't see why a townie would do that. Why?? Makes no sense. But a newb-scum, knowing of imminent town-flip and wanting to wash her/his hands of it? Yes, makes a lot of sense.
2. I can't see PP or AF as Drones buddy, because of their interactions. And that leaves only Implosion. Making me read their actions today as sneakily ganging up on me, making me paranoid and aggresive. Yes.

Now @Implosion, if you are town: try imagining I'm town too and consider if it makes sense then, what I'm saying.
@Chrimi: I hope you can also try this, having a more neutral mindset than me. Imagine the case where me and Imp are townies tearing into each other. In this case the scum would be among PP/AF/ Drone. Is this a serious option in your opinion?

I'm also(if slowly) rereading and hoping to find anything that could help us fix this mess.

[Cass]

1) no. Also, very different circumstances.
2) I read the game during night. I replaced in the moment night started. Ask the mod to confirm this, if you must. I spotted the 'crumb', also spotted most everyone quietly twonreading Shannon, leading me to believe many people saw her as PR and were doing the correct thing: townread, otherwise draw no attention to this person. That's what I did until the claim. Outing her / role fishing in post 1 is what scum-me might have done... Except I would have NKed her first. I was trying to protect a town asset.

[Cass]

Ebwop: Drone, I'm not askimg you to answer about 0x40 again, I know there's nothing more to say. I was just explaining to everyone else why I can't shake my scumread on you.

[Cass]

Now can someone take their vote off me before scum double votes me in a row?

Is it a reasonable conclusion to make that Drone is scum if a double vote on me does not happen overnight? I think scum would have coordinated during the night to find a time where they both are usually on to quickhammer an L-2. (Assuming Chrimi town)

Seconding AF's request here. Unless you're really that sure, Chrimi...?

I'd love to say yes (because it is Drone, and because I'd love love love some certainty right now) to the reasonable conclusion, but, no. It could also mean you are scum, or simply that it's weekend.

[Cass]

@AstralFlare: I townread you partly because of the tone of your posts: calm, reasonable, honestly curious. Partly because the way and the timing of you removing your vote from TNE and your resistance to that lynch.
Personal: as you remark somewhere, we think along similar lines, that helps too. (You also pointed out I'm in confbias with regard to Drone, which I do appreciate. It's a fact, but it doesn't prove Drones innocence.)
Your post 921 and 919 also read very town to me, that's more confirmation.
- And of course, I really

want

you to be town. Because with you + me + Chrimi (+ the last townie) working together we'd have a good chance to eliminate the scum.

[Cass]

Right now if I were to make a guess I'd say cass/drone. Second would be a tossup between cass/af and cass/pp. But I really do think cass's play is scummy.

So... basically you'd link me to anyone (except Chrimi, because doubting her got you under fire before...), as long as it gets me lynched, right? Because it takes only one mislynch right now, so who cares, right?

He thinks we're not scum partners because I'm pushing you like this, not because questioning me got him under fire. This is horrible misrep coming straight from scum. Can we lynch Cass now please?

It's not misrep, just questioning of motives - I am working from the premise that Imp is scum, in which case he would not be honest about his motivations. You assume he's town, so he would be honest. Can't be proven either way until he flips / wins, so *shrug*.

Chrimi: I really need to know why you are so sure Drone is town and AF is scum. Seriously, I'd love to be convinced. We need to find a way out of this.

[Cass]

Ok, all I'm seeing is Imp subtly pushing Chrimi back towards my lynch and his win.

Chrimi, just answer my questions. If not for me then for PP, who also has a pretty certain drone+implosion scumread.

If for some reason you won't, just put your vote back on me.

UNVOTE: Drone
VOTE: Implosion That puts him back at L-2.

[Cass]

@Astralflare: Implosion is calm and reasonable, but he also reads as very careful, not making strong connections to other players, sort of... I dunno... a

waiting

attitude. Like his last post: the game is potentially almost over, but he still has these very weak reads and leaves the pushing of wagons to others. He says things like, 'Cass does this thing, it's not really a tell, but, hey, maybe you still want to lynch her, Chrimi?' - yes, I'm aware this is read through my filter of being convinced he's scum.
It could be his personality / clashing playstyles, but it reads much more scummy to me than your attitude.

[Cass]

No, I don't think so. Townies in our situation need to get better reads on the others. There are no more PR's to help us, and a mislynch means we lose immediately. So taking risks, provoking responses, forcing others to talk, is in towns interest.
Mafia right now just need to subtly manipulate, or wait, because all they need is two townies agreeing on the wrong person (whichever one). Or even not agreeing, they can safely wait another day, when it'd take only one wrong vote.

[Cass]

Only because I'm convinced you're town, and I don't want to lose us the game. With that unvote there, I'll just stop doubting it. AF = town, Chrimi = town. But you should be even more paranoid, because Chrimi would vote me too and she's town and PP (who has to be scum in that scenario) is readying the hammer.

That post by PP was seriously scummy (assume for a moment he's scum and knows I'm town...). If that's right, it's PP/Drone or PP/Implosion - I think the latter, so I'm leaving my vote on. Hope I still have time to read up (not now, gtg, alas).