Newbie 1779 | Spring | Endgame

[oldwino]

Good morning everyone. Glad to see some action right away.

@ aa-dono
Why does my name mock you? I am old, and a wino. That's me in real life and in my avatar.
From what I can tell, you are young (so are you a wino?). Opposites attract, you know.
What does your name mean, anyway?

And back at you.

VOTE: aa-dono

I'm not going to claim on not claim anything this early. I'm new, this is my 2nd newbie game, with no other mafia experience, but claiming or not claiming this early seems like it would help scum ID town and narrow down the matrix, also an advantage to scum, I think.

Also, lynching the IC would be a disadvantage to newbies, right, since he is a major information source for us?

[oldwino]

And back at you.

VOTE: aa-dono

why do you feel the need to return fire immediately on an RVS?

RVS voting is basically random, so why not?

[oldwino]

@ mhsmith0

I'll take some time to read the logic you cited, from RadiantCowbells, and then decide.

I think Dong, as the IC in my first game, was very valuable until he got bored and kinda laid back.
As an experienced player, and a tracker in that game, if he'd tracked Arona N1 and Desp N2, he would have seen them both at the kill site.
Rab, the 1shot, had to claim D1 or he would have been lynched D1. In retrospect, that may have been really helpful to town. Someone, I forget who, said that in the Endgame chat.

So I'm reading the logic you cited from Radiant and thinking about it. Lots of time left in D1.

[oldwino]

trying to gauge how overly defensive you were being

I was going to roll some dice, or go alphabetically, but decided to just go back on aa.

[oldwino]

^alphabetically would have yielded the same vote. Or rolling a '1' on dice.

[oldwino]

I skimmed 1775 and read rc's logic there, plus saw the results of the game - lynched the two scum on days 1 and 2. Quick town win. Pretty impressive. So I'm inclined to do as rc has requested - not claim (or claim as the case might be) - but would like to see the other two experienced players' take on doing so first. No harm in waiting a little for their points of view and reading any counter arguments if there are any.

[oldwino]

And I'd like to make sure I understand the logic, if I am able to do so, so I learn more about how the game works, strategies, etc.

[oldwino]

I skimmed 1775 and read rc's logic there, plus saw the results of the game - lynched the two scum on days 1 and 2. Quick town win. Pretty impressive. So I'm inclined to do as rc has requested - not claim (or claim as the case might be) - but would like to see the other two experienced players' take on doing so first. No harm in waiting a little for their points of view and reading any counter arguments if there are any.

The only valid argument on this issue is the one our IC presented in 16.

When it comes to Mafia theory, only the IC can be trusted to give honest advice. Even a Scum IC cannot lie about optimal play.

That said, I'm going to claim

not bulletproof

and ask you to stop stalling on your claim.

The IC, Mastina, hasn't commented yet. 16 was mhsmith0, an EC.

[oldwino]

I looked up 'derp' and don't understand smith's and grey's uses of it. If anyone would explain, this newbie would appreciate a better explanation that I find in the glossary.

[oldwino]

Derp and Herp?

[oldwino]

Have you two (rc and grey) played together before? Looks like bad blood from outside this game.

[oldwino]

For the record, I believe rc and appreciate all the research he did re: the town advantage of D1 bp claims and it's advantage to town. Just being cautious in making my Not bp (or maybe bp claim). Not much coming from the other true newbies either, maybe they're still in school or at work. I feel a little conspicuous, posting so much.

[oldwino]

I've been off line for a while and no time or concentration to catch up on everything until tomorrow. However, I think Mastina's scum read on me, only because I commented on the back and forth, maybe some bad blood between rc and grey, is weak. Surprisingly weak for an experienced player. I'm not sitting on the sidelines. In fact have probably risked too many comments already for a newbie who got lynched on D2 (and was VT) in my first game.

And FYI, I am an east coast, morning person, so will usually post mornings and maybe afternoons, but not much this time of day (late afternoon east coast). Cocktails (oldwino, remember?), dinner, TV, sleep is my agenda this time of day. May check in quickly later but my brain is on hold if not asleep pretty much after mid-afternoon. Scum read that if you want. Facts of life.

UNVOTE: aa-dono

VOTE: mastina

[oldwino]

Just a quick post soon after signing on.

Since there seems to be a consensus that we claim Not bp or otherwise,

I am NOT bp. I attempted to soft-claimed before, very softly in 26 and a little stronger in 44. Never tried a soft claim before, as this is only my 2nd game and I was VT in my first game, and there was not much point in soft claiming that, at least in that game.

Guess these attempts, in 26 and 44, were REALLY soft.

Now, who hasn't claimed yet?

Will do more thorough reading and post again this later morning.

[oldwino]

Not much really going on since I checked in this morning but I have some follow-up questions and comments.

Where are AA, Ulti, and Just Dance?

AA only posted to vote me. Nothing since. Where are you and what are you thinking? Are you going to claim or NOT claim BP?
Ulti has posted twice and is clearly more newbie than me - with nothing to say yet, not even the Not BP/BP claim.
Just Dance has yet to post.
Since I finally posted my NOT bp claim this morning, I'm anxious to see if any of the remaining 3 are going to claim.

Also, as a newbie, I find
Smith's and RC's posts are helpful and interesting. I like them both, maybe because they are seemingly genuinely helpful to us newbies, so I naturally lean town on them but I realize they could be scum, anyone could be scum at this point. Scum are good at hiding, sometimes in plain site, and deceiving townies through false disagreements with or distancing from each other.

Mastina's player posts are disappointing (weak reasons for scum read on me and no reason for her scum read on DW, with town reads on players who haven't said anything). Thanks for volunteering to be the IC, your IC posts were helpful and interesting, but your player mode seems strange, especially your strong scum read on me for two very weak reasons. You just seem to be baiting me, maybe trying to make me into lynch bait (like I was in my first came, I now realize). So I have a strong scum read on you.

I don't agree with Grey's criticism of RC, I think he misunderstood her - I don't see her lying anywhere, but instead is clarifying and trying to help us newbies. The rest of Grey's posts are mostly confusing to me and I don't see them scum hunting, except for trying to get a wagon on RC. So I lean scum on him.

I like DW of course, since we are mutually defending ourselves against Mastina's unfounded scum reads on us both (gee, does that make it sound like DW and I are scum buddies, I'll bet Mastina says so). Sticking my neck out here, but want to have some fun. Leaning town on Dog (may I call you 'Dog,' I like dogs).

I'm really disappointed AA hasn't come back and that Ulti has only posted twice, with no substance, and that Just Dance hasn't shown up yet.
Where are you and what are your BP claims?

Keeping my vote on Mastina, of course. And that's not UMGUS. That would be too naive. It's because she's voted me for two very weak, I think contrived, reasons, 1) I voted AA after AA voted me, as a fun RVS vote, maybe OMGUS but so what, and 2) I asked if RC and Grey's back and forth was from a previous game, if they had history, because it seemed odd, out of proportion, to the context of this game when the banter started. Two very simple, null posts on my part. So I think maybe she's trying to lynch bait me (a term I didn't hear in my first game).

That's it for me for now, probably until tomorrow. It's that cocktail, dinner and TV time (and I'm cooking tonight).

[oldwino]

Hi Dog (specifically, and everyone else in general),

I can't get the quotes to work right this time. I've not had any trouble in the past, but after 3 attempts, gave up, so I'll respond to you (Dog) without embedding past posts.

Thanks for your insights into Mastina's voting me. She said it was because of a combination of posts, after my RVS vote, but doesn't specify much, instead asks me and others to figure it out - a teaching moment, I assume. Actually, I don't think anyone is particularly scummy at this point and I'm an easy target for her teaching role. I may appear to be the most scummy in a group of non-scummy appearing players, so far. I don't mind, I'm here to learn as are the other newbies. But her vote on me, without what I view to be any really strong reasons, makes her look scummy to me. Maybe not to anyone else, if they agree with her that I am scummy, but certainly makes her look scummy to me.

My 'cocktails, dinner, and TV time' - plus sleep, I forgot to include sleep, is real. I'm trying to add some of that real life flavor to my character, tried harder at the beginning of my first game and then gave it up. Want to include some of it in the game, for fun. The social part of this is fun for me. I want to have fun. That's a main reason I get involved early and stick my neck out, disagree and even accuse experienced players like Mastina even if my naive approach makes me look scummy. Stick my neck out - play rather than watch.

So, please envision me laid back in my recliner, laptop on my lap, having a drink (wine, beer, vodka, scotch, doesn't much matter), feeling a bit woozy and trying to follow some of the complex logic here. That's in the evening - this morning, I'm wide awake and taking in my daily ration of caffeine.

[oldwino]

Thanks to JDW for the bp claim.

And to aa - thanks for all of your responses.

I never thought about aa-dono and oldwine rhyming. But I've used the name since I registered in December.

I used up my slack time this morning responding to Dog. I'm trying to respond to posts in order and now I have to go out for a while. I'll try to reply to your replies to me later this morning. Hopefully.

And I'm glad you're studying. And sleeping and eating, etc. The game can get to be an obsession, have to keep it in perspective. It's a game. It's supposed to be fun, not an addiction.

More later.

[oldwino]

Too many walls of fluff. -_-

Something needs to happen.

VOTE: -Grey-

OMG, I self-voted! How scummy is that?!

So, it's my second game, anywhere, ever, and in my first game a newbie asked about self-voting and was told that that's very scummy, almost 100% scummy, because it can't do town any good at all. So I'll assume you are one of the two scum until you at least argue to the contrary. If you are town, couldn't you unfluff the game in a more productive way? How is self-voting supposed to stimulate discussion and especially scum hunting?

[oldwino]

I was puzzled why you would vote yourself, especially since the only scummy reason I've heard of is to shut off debate so you or your scum partner don't reveal anything else through continued discussion, and that would be a hammer vote, not an early vote. After some thought, I think you are either trying to stimulate some discussion, which you are doing with me, or as aa noted, or maybe to deflect suspicion of yourself because you are not under any pressure right now. Or, maybe, you're trying to redirect the discussion to stop the (now pointless, I think) debate between you and RC.

I am not voting you because I think you're just messing with us and trying to stimulate discussion. And, I still think Mastina is the most scummy right now because of her weak reasons for reading me as scum. If I'm leaning scum on you, it's because I think you're misrepresenting RC's posts, trying to make her look scummy when overall, I think she's leaning town.

[oldwino]

If I'm leaning scum on you, it's because I think you're misrepresenting RC's posts, trying to make her look scummy when overall, I think she's leaning town.

You're not one to call me out for misrepresenting someone when you yourself are misrepping his gender.

@ RC, sorry about misrepresenting your gender. Thanks to grey for calling me on that.

[oldwino]

After some thought, I think you are either trying to stimulate some discussion, which you are doing with me, or as aa noted, or maybe to deflect suspicion of yourself because you are not under any pressure right now. Or, maybe, you're trying to redirect the discussion to stop the (now pointless, I think) debate between you and RC.

Which is it?

Or do you plan on building a house on that fence you're sitting on?

I might not build a house, but I may camp out on the fence for a while. Why not when I'm not sure? I'm not going to commit to a POV or opinion that is still evolving.

In this case however, I think I was clear, I mostly think you were just trying to generate some discussion, but MAYBE you had other reasons. Just maybe. But mostly think you were just stimulating some discussion.

[oldwino]

I felt suspicious about the back and forth between you and RC - you thinking he was lying when I didn't see it - I thought you were misinterpreting his posts just to disagree and attack him. I think you may have started the self-vote stream to change topics, to deflect any suspicions that interaction with RC raised. But that's NOT my primary belief about why you started the self-vote stream. I really think you're just trying to get some new and different discussion going. To breed some conflict with and among others. The most towncred actions I've seen from you.

[oldwino]

Have you sorted him out? Town or scum leanings? Town I think, since you changed your vote to AA?

[oldwino]

@ AA - in 172 you asked me a couple of questions. I re-read them and thought they were pretty much moot by now, but I'd be glad to answer tomorrow if there's anything you are still curious about.

@ everyone - I'm off for the night. It's wine, dinner, and TV time. Will check back tomorrow.

[oldwino]

Finally getting back to aa's questions in post 172.

what are you thinking? Are you going to claim or NOT claim BP?

I don't really understand the RC town thing. I'm still trying to get a hang of everyone's name too. mastina (the IC) have unsatisfactory explanation regarding her reads, but they're not red flags to me. I don't think the OMGUS from oldwino on me as anthing much, but that vote on mastina doesn't really feell like it was backed with a "strong read". I'm more wary of Dog since I don't understand where his view on who's scummy or townie came from.
I still don't see the benefit to the not BP claim. How does it help?

JDW claimed BP so my response is after-the-fact but still wanted to respond to your question. Good for future reference.
RC did research and found that not claiming/claiming the bp increased town's chance of winning. In the recent game when he tried it and everyone cooperated, scum were killed the first two nights. So, after reading that and giving it some thought, I decided to cooperate and claim NOT bp.

Mastina's player posts are disappointing (weak reasons for scum read on me and no reason for her scum read on DW, with town reads on players who haven't said anything). Thanks for volunteering to be the IC, your IC posts were helpful and interesting, but your player mode seems strange, especially your strong scum read on me for two very weak reasons. You just seem to be baiting me, maybe trying to make me into lynch bait (like I was in my first came, I now realize). So I have a strong scum read on you.

So the strong read came from thinking yourself as a lynch bait? I don't see mastina giving that strong of a scumread on you. It doesn't feel intense so the defensive stance you are taking feels off.

I guess I read her read on me too strongly. I didn't mean to be overly defensive, but to reasonably defend myself.

I like DW of course, since we are mutually defending ourselves against Mastina's unfounded scum reads on us both (gee, does that make it sound like DW and I are scum buddies, I'll bet Mastina says so). Sticking my neck out here, but want to have some fun. Leaning town on Dog (may I call you 'Dog,' I like dogs).

This part sounds like you're worried if anyone thinks of buddying so you're trying to clear it needlessly before it was brought up.

You're right here, good lesson for me.

I'm really disappointed AA hasn't come back

Welp. Sorry

Studying, working, eating, sleeping is all important.

[oldwino]

I am flagrantly unable to see Mastina as town here.

Why do you not see Mastina as town? I have my reasons for thinking she may be scum, but what are yours?
Did you not change your vote from Grey to Mastina because it's still early and you don't want to take her to L1?
I agree with that strategy - just checking.

[oldwino]

I have just a couple of minutes, it's a busy Sunday. But I had to comment.

I don't like ulti's responses or vote either, even though I think Mastina is scum and am keeping my vote on her for now. If the mod had counted ulti's vote, Mastina would have been at L1 on a Sunday when few players are active. I don't like that. Thanks to Smith for unvoting Mastina for the time being, anyway.

I think ulti is either avoiding questions and acting really naive, and therefore would be scum, or is truly very naive even for a first game or is just not mentally up for this game. No avatar, didn't figure out how to vote, can't link to something he read. No logic behind an L1 vote.

@ulti - If you want to play the game, you have to make an effort and learn. And stick your neck out. But don't take someone to L1 without some analysis, and not on a Sunday when very few are playing.

But on the other hand (yes, I like fences, early in the game anyway when few if any of us, me anyway, really doesn't have a firm read on anyone).
Smith said

Why is everyone's role displayed below their name? Doesn't that make this game really easy for town to win?

Hello everyone! I will be your lynchbait for this game

I fixed your typos. I guess it could be scum with a buddy who didn't advise him (or he didn't bother reading advice, or he's just going for a super awkward derp-clear attempt), but lynchbait is my gut reaction to that bit

Now I'm logging off, hopefully will find a few minutes this afternoon to check back in and react to reactions to my post.

[oldwino]

Paraphrased from the sample roles-

Goons share a factional kill each night. You must choose which of you will commit the kill. You also share a factional PT, located here, where

you may talk during night phases only.

So Mastina and Ulti cannot be talking privately during the day. They may have talked after role assignments but before the thread opened to everyone, but the mod activated the game quickly (overnight for most of us) so I think there's only a slim chance they had an opportunity to plan before D1 began. I'm still leaning and voting on Mastina because I think Ulti is so new/naive and made his vote decision in a panic because he was being pressured to contribute and didn't know what else to do.

I'm not defending Ulti. I think he is just really weak, naive town, who hasn't read the rules (or responding to my 'prod' about not avatar, etc. etc.). He is contributing so little he wouldn't be much of a loss to town, but even a weak town player still in the game is better for town than his being lynched. And if Mastina is scum, she's a very dangerous one because she is so experienced.

[oldwino]

I wonder if JDW lost interest after being 'pressured' into claiming BP early in the game? No need to defend yourself or be careful about what you say, or how you say it after claiming a rather safe role early on. Of course you could also attack, looking for scum, without any immediate repercussions. Maybe a double-edged sword. Safe but boring. Maybe that really took of fun out of the game for JDW.
If I were forced into claiming BP early on D1, I might have lost interest also.

@JDW, if you are still around, did claiming BP early have an effect on your interest in the game?

@RC, this might be something to pay attention to in other games. Unanticipated consequences.

[oldwino]

This is my first post in a while because I've been reading and trying to make sense out of the smith-grey feud.
I want to respond to Mastina's question to me about Smith's wagon on Ulti. But first, I also want to restate my position on Ulti.

For what it's worth: the first potential sign I got that I'm wrong on oldwino is this post.

But on the other hand (yes, I like fences, early in the game anyway when few if any of us, me anyway, really doesn't have a firm read on anyone). Smith said

Why is everyone's role displayed below their name? Doesn't that make this game really easy for town to win?

Hello everyone! I will be your lynchbait for this game

I fixed your typos. I guess it could be scum with a buddy who didn't advise him (or he didn't bother reading advice, or he's just going for a super awkward derp-clear attempt), but lynchbait is my gut reaction to that bit

Incidentally, this is one of the first things oldwino's said in which I actually feel like asking him a question about it would be productive regardless of his alignment/answer. Specifically,

Hey, oldwino:

Given the above, what's your take on:

VOTE: ulti
choo choo

...This?

I was sitting on the fence re: Ulti and cited my reasons in 287 and 299. I'm not able to figure out embedded quotes yet, so will copy paste sections of those two posts. You can see 287 but not 299 in Mastina's posts above.

in 287 I said
I don't like ulti's responses or vote either, even though I think Mastina is scum and am keeping my vote on her for now. If the mod had counted ulti's vote, Mastina would have been at L1 on a Sunday when few players are active. I don't like that. Thanks to Smith for unvoting Mastina for the time being, anyway.

I think ulti is either avoiding questions and acting really naive, and therefore would be scum, or is truly very naive even for a first game or is just not mentally up for this game. No avatar, didn't figure out how to vote, can't link to something he read. No logic behind an L1 vote.

@ulti - If you want to play the game, you have to make an effort and learn. And stick your neck out. But don't take someone to L1 without some analysis, and not on a Sunday when very few are playing.

But on the other hand (yes, I like fences, early in the game anyway when few if any of us, me anyway, really doesn't have a firm read on anyone)
... in 116 Smith 'changed Ulti's typos' and basically said Ulti was lynchbait - I think because he was being so naive.

In 299 I said
I'm still leaning and voting on Mastina because I think Ulti is so new/naive and made his vote decision in a panic because he was being pressured to contribute and didn't know what else to do.

I'm not defending Ulti. I think he is just really weak, naive town, who hasn't read the rules (or responding to my 'prod' about not avatar, etc. etc.). He is contributing so little he wouldn't be much of a loss to town, but even a weak town player still in the game is better for town than his being lynched. And if Mastina is scum, she's a very dangerous one because she is so experienced.

That's what I was thinking several pages ago. Today, I still think Ulti is just too new and scared to participate. But, I ask myself, 'why would he be so afraid, basically frozen with fear?' I think he's afraid to post, to play, because he is scum. A new townie may be afraid to post, afraid they'd make a mistake, but not so afraid that they would keep so quiet. If a new townie is lynched on D1, there are still 6 more townies to carry the game. But if he's scum and is lynched, he's leaving his scum partner out there all alone. So, now I'm leaning scum on Ulti because of his apparent fear to post and play.

And why would Smith start a wagon on Ulti? Frustration maybe? Trying to get a reaction from Ulti, pressuring him to play? And maybe Smith really does think Ulti is scum. Or maybe, several pages ago, to get a reaction from others? But since Smith's vote is still on Ulti, and surprisingly to me not changed to Grey, I've got to believe Smith still thinks Ulti is scum.

[oldwino]

Now on to other thoughts.

I think the feud, as I called it, between Smith and Grey is NAI. I don't know either one, don't know anyone in this game, and don't have the time to dig into past games and try to figure out their meta play. So I'm just going on what I read in this game, including some of the posts they have embedded from prior games, but not much of that. Lots of skimming because, even though I am 'old' (not elderly, thank you very much) and retired, I have a busy life. I like spending and hour or so twice a day playing the game, but don't want to spend much more than that because I have so much else going on.

Anyway, I think the feud between Smith and Grey is NAI. Male ego, maybe more defensiveness from Smith than I like, but his overall play seems to be townish, helping newbies (who are mostly silent in this game) understand the game and themselves. I don't find Grey as helpful, but I believe him about not bussing except in an extremely rare situation. I am null to leaning town on both.

RC has been suspiciously quiet lately, and hasn't addressed my question about not voting Mastina, even though RC said at one point she couldn't see Mastina being town (said much more eloquently by RC in post 239). Still leaning town on RC, but not as much as early on.

Leaning town on Dog. I think her questions and observations are good, confident, cautious and she reflects my POV often.

JDW (and now Icy) are confirmed BP so town.

I'm still leaning scum on Mastina. I appreciate all of her teaching and in-depth posts to help us newbies learn and understand the game, but I am still suspicious of her early, what I think was weak, rationale for thinking I was scum. Maybe she was trying me out, testing me, trying to egg me on to be more decisive and a better player. But I think her read on me was weak and almost contrived. And, maybe, just maybe, she is overplaying her IC role to keep a lower player profile because she is scum. Maybe. I'm about 60% scum on Mastina and on D1, as a newbie, I am more likely to be wrong than right, but that's probably common on D1. But she and Ulti seem the most scummy to me. Sometwo have to be scum.

Leaning scum on Alti for the reasons I cited in my last post.

And leaning scum on AA-Dono because she's been so quiet and hasn't said much when she's posted. Another possible newbie scum not knowing what to do. Or a townie with not much time to play.

All my leanings on D1 are with extreme caution because we won't know much until we get someone to L1 and they claim JK or Tracker, if that happens, and until we lynch someone, most likely a townie, and see where the alignments were and how they got there.

For now
Townish to scumish
Me, of course
Icy
Dog
RC
Grey
Smith
AA
Ulti
Mastina (although I am about equally suspicious of Mastina and Ulti, Mastina would be much more dangerous scum to leave alive than Ulti)


Now I'm off again until later today.

[oldwino]

@oldwino If you think Mastina and ulti are a scumteam, why do you think Mastina has barely mentioned the ulti wagon? She DID ask you what you thought of smith's vote on ulti, but the focus there was more on smith than who he voted for. Do you think she attempted to sway the wagon away from ulti in a case of mama-bearing him? And how does ulti's vote on mastina play into this?

My best explanation of Mastina barely mentioning the ulti wagon is to not bring any additional attention to it. Not sway anyone away from it, but not give it much attention. She could have asked me what I thought to draw me out more and give her a post to counter, either to work at discrediting me or give her something to counter to try to indirectly defuse the wagon. Ulti's vote on Mastina was null, never counted because he didn't vote correctly, nor did he ever go back and fix his vote so it would count. Why not?

Keep in mind I'm at best still just barely feeling over 50-50 on anyone, except myself and Icy.

[oldwino]

helping newbies (who are mostly silent in this game) understand the game and themselves.

Do not fall into the trap of thinking helpfulness is alignment indicative.

It is very easy for scum to be helpful.

I understand, thanks. Can't help but let it bias me somewhat, but I fight the urge.

[oldwino]

I think the 'teaching' half of being an IC needs to be taken more seriously and frequently isn't. That said you are always a player first and a teacher second.

If that were true, it would justify lying about theory in order to accomplish your wincon.

No, the ethics involved in being an IC demand that the requirements come before the player's wincon

I would think the IC could and should separate the roles. Maybe even have two identities, one as ICname and the other as PLAYERname. Example,
ICMastina and PLAYERMastina. Or more simply, IMastina and Mastina.

It think it should be easy for an IC to answer questions about the mechanics of the game, explain some strategy in general, etc. in a fully truthful way, and still play the game as scum and lie as necessary for their wincon. In this game, it's sometimes hard to separate the two roles because Mastina has been so prolific in filling her IC role. Not sure where she's drawn the line. No offense, I truly appreciate her taking the time to write as much as she has about the game, in her IC role and previously in a blog, etc. etc.

For me, however, and I am speaking of course for only me, Mastina is overdoing the IC role but I have learned some things, gotten some ideas from her. In my first game, 1771, the IC basically just played the game like everyone else (he was a tracker). He was there if any newbies had questions but I don't think anyone asked him anything. If so, it was in a PM. We also only had two EC's in 1771, so there were 6 fairly new newbies in the game. Of course, as luck would have it, both EC's were scum and wiped out town on Day 3.

[oldwino]

:\

Anything I can do to improve your experience?

The other newbies have to get active. I think Grey and Smith have been so prolific, they are intimidating the newbies and they are afraid to say much for fear of being deemed scum, or naive, or whatever - except for me and Dog. Guess we are just naturally a little bolder than the others.

Again, in 1771, a virgin newbie (is that in the glossary?) was VT but was so intimidated, he didn't say much, he asked dumb questions, and was the first one lynched (my fault, I hammered, but he really looked and acted scummy, given what I thought scum would act like in my first game).

We need EC's and maybe an IC is helpful, but they need to encourage the newbies to play rather than monopolize the game.

[oldwino]

BTW, thanks Penguin Power for the beautiful SPRING pictures on your vc's.

You're welcome

-PenguinMod

[oldwino]

We need EC's and maybe an IC is helpful, but they need to encourage the newbies to play rather than monopolize the game.

That's a fair point.

I'll sit back a bit to "make room" for the newbies to get their feet wet.

Thanks. But don't go away completely. Reading your and the other experienced players' thinking about townie and scummy behavior of others, your thoughts on their alignments and why (and lying about that if you are scum - that's necessary and important to the game, and for us to learn), is critical for our learning. Moreso than the walls that have, in my opinion, taken up too much time and space. Just my opinion.

[oldwino]

Checking out for a while. Maybe be back later tonight, maybe not. Drinks, dinner, TV, sleep.

[oldwino]

I want to respond to Mastina's question to me about Smith's wagon on Ulti. Today, I still think Ulti is just too new and scared to participate. But, I ask myself, 'why would he be so afraid, basically frozen with fear?' I think he's afraid to post, to play, because he is scum. A new townie may be afraid to post, afraid they'd make a mistake, but not so afraid that they would keep so quiet. If a new townie is lynched on D1, there are still 6 more townies to carry the game. But if he's scum and is lynched, he's leaving his scum partner out there all alone. So, now I'm leaning scum on Ulti because of his apparent fear to post and play.

And why would Smith start a wagon on Ulti? Frustration maybe? Trying to get a reaction from Ulti, pressuring him to play? And maybe Smith really does think Ulti is scum. Or maybe, several pages ago, to get a reaction from others? But since Smith's vote is still on Ulti, and surprisingly to me not changed to Grey, I've got to believe Smith still thinks Ulti is scum.

That's nice and good and all, but this isn't what I was asking. I was asking what you thought of MHSMITH, with these two back to back:

Why is everyone's role displayed below their name? Doesn't that make this game really easy for town to win?

Hello everyone! I will be your lynchbait for this game

I fixed your typos. I guess it could be scum with a buddy who didn't advise him (or he didn't bother reading advice, or he's just going for a super awkward derp-clear attempt), but lynchbait is my gut reaction to that bit

VOTE: ulti
choo choo

I think in both posts Smith was trying to get Ulti to participate. The first one, maybe a bit sarcastic and humorous (humorous sarcasm) but still trying to stimulate some better participation. The second post, the wagon whistle, shows more suspicion that Ulti many be scum, but despite Smith's thoughts about Ulti's alignment, Smith was trying to get Ulti to participate. I think both of these Smith posts were townish, even if only slightly so. Townish (I knew you'd ask) because they are trying to get someone who is appearing scummy to defend themselves, to participate, hence drawing them out to potentially better expose their scummyness, rather than keep quiet, keep their head down.

[oldwino]

Not sure where she's drawn the line.

I'm rather unambiguous about this: I will not lie about anything. I will not misapply in any way whatsoever anything. I will not misdirect. I will not omit critical info with no indication I am doing so. (That is, giving the appearance of telling everything when in truth I am holding something back.) I will not deceive.

Now. There can be overlap between teaching and play...but this overlap is not alignment indicative.
If I am town, then I chose to hold information back--both because I thought it would be a good teaching experience

and

because I thought there was a pro-town value in having done so.
If I am scum, then I chose to hold information back--both because I thought it would be a good teaching experience

and

because I thought there was pro-scum value in having done so. (Probably pro-scum value which would appear on the surface to be pro-town.)

In either case, I made a call where doing an action was both teaching and for play...but because it can occur as either alignment, my role as a teacher remains separated from my role as a player. Now, I'll admit. Some of my lessons double as me laying the groundwork for future content of mine--but in those lessons, the above remains true.
If I am town, the lesson was an IC lesson, and doubled as groundwork for future content I would use to push the game closer to a hopefully pro-town state.
If I am scum, the lesson was an IC lesson, and doubled as groundwork for future content I would use to push the game closer to a hopefully pro-scum state. In either case, it is still an IC lesson separated from my alignment, even if it's not separated from my play.

This is how every IC should operate in my opinion, though sadly not all of them do.

Thanks for the short explanation. I think I understand it, but don't think you're accomplishing the separation as well as you think you are. Still, I truly appreciate the time and effort you put into your IC role. I think it must be hard, being an IC with the approach you take, and being scum at the same time. If you were town, you'd be less conflicted about your role differentiation, IMO.

[oldwino]

We need EC's and maybe an IC is helpful, but they need to encourage the newbies to play rather than monopolize the game.

Incidentally, that's one of the reasons why I held back on my reasons!

At least in theory, by me not giving my presence at maximum, by me holding back my full reasons, by me NOT monopolizing the game by being very loud about my reasons, the idea there is that I would encourage newbies to actually

think

about my content, my contribution, and what it is I was trying to accomplish...allowing them to feel like they actually were giving something to the game rather than just being held by the hand and told directly "this is the case. This is why this is the case. Because this is the case, this is what we'll be doing", and that's what would have happened if I shared my reads immediately.

Of course, this sounds townie. You probably could overinfluence newbies if you shared too early. But by not sharing, by holding off this long, you're not helping town. And you're protecting yourself, if you are scum, from meaningful posts we could poke holes in. We (town) need your help, especially as we approach a critical point in D1. We have to start getting some genuine wagons going because once we do, if someone claims the other PR, we'll have to regroup. I think we're in danger already of a hasty lynch or even a no lynch, which will benefit scum. And I promise you, I won't be overly influenced by your reasons, your logic. But will be influenced if I think they are sound town observations and conclusions.

[oldwino]

Mastina is working her way through her thoughts and analysis.
Darklyn shared thoughts and town-scum rankings in 464.
I shared my best thoughts and town-scum rankings in 403.

How about everyone else? Not walls, not cheap shots, not one-on-ones with anyone right not, but summaries, leanings, town, scum, scum team? Please!

Personally, I am more suspicious now of RC's lack of substance through most of the game and giving some cred to Mastina's suspicions and reasons to suspect Smith. Not ready to change my vote or re-order my list, but thinking about both. And not seeing any change in Pieg's behavior (none) from Ulti's so suspicious of Pieg.

Spoiler:

Now on to other thoughts. I think the feud, as I called it, between Smith and Grey is NAI. I don't know either one, don't know anyone in this game, and don't have the time to dig into past games and try to figure out their meta play. So I'm just going on what I read in this game, including some of the posts they have embedded from prior games, but not much of that. Lots of skimming because, even though I am 'old' (not elderly, thank you very much) and retired, I have a busy life. I like spending and hour or so twice a day playing the game, but don't want to spend much more than that because I have so much else going on.

Anyway, I think the feud between Smith and Grey is NAI. Male ego, maybe more defensiveness from Smith than I like, but his overall play seems to be townish, helping newbies (who are mostly silent in this game) understand the game and themselves. I don't find Grey as helpful, but I believe him about not bussing except in an extremely rare situation. I am null to leaning town on both.

RC has been suspiciously quiet lately, and hasn't addressed my question about not voting Mastina, even though RC said at one point she couldn't see Mastina being town (said much more eloquently by RC in post 239). Still leaning town on RC, but not as much as early on.

Leaning town on Dog. I think her questions and observations are good, confident, cautious and she reflects my POV often.

JDW (and now Icy) are confirmed BP so town.

I'm still leaning scum on Mastina. I appreciate all of her teaching and in-depth posts to help us newbies learn and understand the game, but I am still suspicious of her early, what I think was weak, rationale for thinking I was scum. Maybe she was trying me out, testing me, trying to egg me on to be more decisive and a better player. But I think her read on me was weak and almost contrived. And, maybe, just maybe, she is overplaying her IC role to keep a lower player profile because she is scum. Maybe. I'm about 60% scum on Mastina and on D1, as a newbie, I am more likely to be wrong than right, but that's probably common on D1. But she and Ulti seem the most scummy to me. Sometwo have to be scum.

Leaning scum on Alti for the reasons I cited in my last post.

And leaning scum on AA-Dono because she's been so quiet and hasn't said much when she's posted. Another possible newbie scum not knowing what to do. Or a townie with not much time to play.

All my leanings on D1 are with extreme caution because we won't know much until we get someone to L1 and they claim JK or Tracker, if that happens, and until we lynch someone, most likely a townie, and see where the alignments were and how they got there.

For now
Townish to scumish
Me, of course
Icy
Dog
RC
Grey
Smith
AA
Ulti
Mastina (although I am about equally suspicious of Mastina and Ulti, Mastina would be much more dangerous scum to leave alive than Ulti)

Now I'm off again until later today.

[oldwino]

We need EC's and maybe an IC is helpful, but they need to encourage the newbies to play rather than monopolize the game.

That's a fair point.

I'll sit back a bit to "make room" for the newbies to get their feet wet.

You're already playing this game from the back of the room, how much farther can you "sit back"?

My activity dwarfs that of pretty much everybody else in this game.

If you're going to poke the bear, you better have something better than that pathetic stick.

Activity/post count has little to do with game play.

Posting is the only game play. And posting/activity is risky, townish, because it opens you up to inconsistencies, intentional flaws in logic, and is the only way, I think, to scum-hunt. Many, many empty posts don't help and is scummy, but silence, I think, is much scummier.

[oldwino]

(OH GOD SNIPPING THIS)

And THAT, m'friends, is what I was talking about in regards to the spoiler tag when I first mentioned it:

Be advised:

Spoilers don't nest.

They also have bad interactions with quote tags if you use improper nesting which can fuck the site up

. So IF you do use a spoiler tag, please make sure you have properly formatted it so that every closing tag is appropriately placed. The results of violating this are...very, very messy. They can and will break the site.

Honestly oldwino's break was a comparably small one (barely noticeable, but compare posts on the page prior to the break to posts on the page after the break); you can actually break the site FAR worse than he did by using bad tag nesting.

If I were the mod of this game I would fix the post, but as a player the best I could do is try to show the post fixed and that's a risky venture thanks to the chance of me NOT actually fixing it and therefore fucking up MY post, too. Soyeah. General rule of thumb, use the preview button when you have a combination of quotes and spoiler tags in your posts; I BELIEVE if you've fucked them up it's usually easy to spot.

I was not aware I mis-used tags. Sorry about that. I previewed, deleted, previewed, deleted, previewed, changed, etc. etc. until I thought I had it right. Is there somewhere I can read about nesting? I've tried several times and not gotten nesting to work, so deleted those posts and italicized instead.

[oldwino]

Radiant: Town due to post 12.

what about 12 do you think rc can't or wouldn't do as scum?

I think RC's post 12 is NAI. Since he committed to this strategy in 1775, he has to stick with it in every game or he would look scummy. I hoped for more follow-up but since Smith further explained RC's reasoning in his (Smith's) post 16, I assume (maybe a mistake) that RC took that as a 'pass' to explain further. I also ISO'd RC in 1775 because his short, often 1-line posts in this game made me suspicious he was trying to keep a low profile. In 1775, RC was town and his posts were similar to what they are here. So I'm null on RC at the moment, although initially I thought he was scum hunting (early feud with Smith) and lately his absence is starting to make me suspicious. At first I was sure RC was town, but now I think his game could be either town or scum. I can't see any indication one way or the other, given his similar style in 1775. I haven't looked at any of his other games, however.

[oldwino]

@ Icy - even though I've voted Mastina and think I have provided plenty of logic, I totally believe her RL situation and reasons for delaying more substantive responses. I think you should back off for a while. If you weren't the confirmed BP, I'd think your 'attacks' on Mastina were extremely scummy.

[oldwino]

Checking out for a while. Maybe be back later tonight, maybe not. Drinks, dinner, TV, sleep.

why this post? color me curious.

Hope I got my quote tags right. Tried several times and it looks good in the preview.

Without going back and citing posts, early on there was a back-and-forth between me and AA-dono about our names (and RVS votes of each other), I explained that I was old and a wino - then later on in 152 I mentioned I was signing off for cocktails, dinner, and TV - trying to add some flavor to the game - and to explain my upcoming absence right after posting 152 since 152 was a long post that raised issues and asked questions. Like a few other players, I think it's polite to give a heads-up when I'm signing off for the day/night, especially when I've been involved in some very recent discussions and Q&A. Part of my RL, and not wanting anyone to misinterpret as scum tossing some bombs and then disappearing. And some flavor. Newbie games lack flavor and I try to add a little for fun.

[oldwino]

I think in both posts Smith was trying to get Ulti to participate. The first one, maybe a bit sarcastic and humorous (humorous sarcasm) but still trying to stimulate some better participation. The second post, the wagon whistle, shows more suspicion that Ulti many be scum, but despite Smith's thoughts about Ulti's alignment, Smith was trying to get Ulti to participate. I think both of these Smith posts were townish, even if only slightly so. Townish (I knew you'd ask) because they are trying to get someone who is appearing scummy to defend themselves, to participate, hence drawing them out to potentially better expose their scummyness, rather than keep quiet, keep their head down.

i have a few questions for you here. what made you come to that conclusion? why didn't you engage smith about it directly and ask him what his intentions were? i don't see any follow-up with smith to get a real picture of his motives on that, so why are you satisfied with your read on smith right now?

help me understand your stance here on the wagon, because while ulti was too much of a newb to figure out voting, you're judging him poorly for trying to put mastina at l-1? do you think he knew what l-1 was? what do you think about grey's vote and his posts leading up to it? if i'm missing you commenting on that somewhere, point me to it, because i don't see anything.

Ulti was inactive and I felt the same frustration as Smith - so concluding he was trying to stimulate Ulti was an easy conclusion for me. I didn't really view the votes on Ulti as a wagon - two votes in the early game, with plausible explanations - trying to get Ulti to respond, do something. I tried to explain this in my post,

I think both of these Smith posts were townish, even if only slightly so. Townish (I knew you'd ask) because they are trying to get someone who is appearing scummy to defend themselves, to participate, hence drawing them out to potentially better expose their scummyness, rather than keep quiet, keep their head down.

I still viewed Mastina and Ulti as the scum team and wanted to keep my vote on Mastina, the much more dangerous of the two. I also expected, not too far down the line, that one or both Smith and Grey would back off of the Ulti wagon.

I didn't think to ask Smith about his reasons, I guess because they seemed obvious to me. Or maybe my inexperience.

Ulti may not have realized what L1 was, or that he'd taken Mastina there, but he didn't respond, didn't go back and vote correctly.

I think Grey voted Ulti out of frustration with his play as well, as Ulti ignored Grey's request, over and over again, to explain where Ulti's understanding of 'gut' came from. I didn't ask - I was watching and thinking about Ulti, as he was my second scum read. Ulti voted Mastina because of his 'gut' and Grey was returning the same, unsubstantiated vote against Ulti. But I didn't ask.

I understand your interest in my POV here, since you've taken Ulti's spot and need to recover from his poor (absent) play. Since you're an experienced player, you taking Ulti's slot should be interesting. I'll ISO you often since your slot is still my #2 scum leaning.

[oldwino]

I value experienced conftown's thoughts, etc. and would like Icy to contribute as much as able because we know they are town-driven. But it's also true everyone needs to participate and generate as much dialog, logic, etc. as possible in an effort to expose scum, especially in retrospect during D2 and beyond. No one gets a free pass. Anyone loitering is suspect. In my first game, I voted mostly based on fewest posts - so of course I help lynch townies on D1 and D2 and town lost fast. So I'm looking at content now, scum-hunting content, and don't find much anywhere. Will focus on ISOing everyone and counting scum hunting posts, overly defensive posts, and 'avoidance' posts.

[oldwino]

I value experienced conftown's thoughts, etc. and would like Icy to contribute as much as able because we know they are town-driven. But it's also true everyone needs to participate and generate as much dialog, logic, etc. as possible in an effort to expose scum, especially in retrospect during D2 and beyond. No one gets a free pass. Anyone loitering is suspect.

In my first game, I voted mostly based on fewest posts - so of course I help lynch townies on D1 and D2 and town lost fast.

So I'm looking at content now, scum-hunting content, and don't find much anywhere. Will focus on ISOing everyone and counting scum hunting posts, overly defensive posts, and 'avoidance' posts.

don't ever do the bolded as town. this lets scum forego scumhunting for lynching by activity. lurking is anti-town behavior, but it's nai. you have to look at WHY a slot is lurking. activity can be a valuable indicator but it should never be your primary or sole criterion. and, there's been plenty of scumhunting going on. if you aren't seeing it that is a problem.

Pieg didn't read my post clearly enough. I learned that lesson (voting on low vote count only) in my first game. Yes, there is scum hunting going on here, but also lots of non-participation and s-posting. And some very effective hiding.

If no one else thinks Mastina is scum it's time I change my vote. Time is getting short and I won't be online at all on Monday, a day that could/should be critical. Can't help it, traveling and no internet until Tuesday morning (I hope). So I need to make my move by tomorrow. I'll ISO everyone and jump on whomever I think is most suspicious, someone not hunting but maybe pretending to do so. Anyone wanting to make a case, either way, now's your chance to try to influence me. Once I change my vote, I may not have the opportunity to do so again until D2.

[oldwino]

That's no way to get what you want.

See you folks in 48 hours.

come back

If no one else thinks Mastina is scum it's time I change my vote.

If you're gonna change your vote just do it, waiting makes you look indecisive and opportunistic

In your opinion and and thanks for your advice. But from my POV, it makes me responsible, deliberative, and open to others' POV's. Working as a team. Scum wants town to vote impulsively without thought. Of course, this is only my second game ever, anywhere, so I am still working out my play style, but for now, I'm soliciting other POV's, reviewing ISO's, and taking my time.

[oldwino]

Given your 'strategy,' we might as well do RVS throughout all of D1. That's what scum is hoping for. Hopefully, over time, town can do better than that, better than the 25% random odds (with the confirmed BP).

[oldwino]

^@Darklyn

[oldwino]

25% includes me as town, 2 of 8, discounting the confBP, looking at the numbers from a general point of view, not just my own.
Could be a scum slip however, I see your point. Thanks.

[oldwino]

I meant to delete the confbp from the denominator, since he is 'known' and I didn't think anyone would vote for him. But I botched my 'math thinking' there and am still not sure how to best figure the odds. Didn't consider the JK/tracker either, since they are still unknowns. Thought I was looking at a simple representation of the odds, RVS vs doing better than that after almost two weeks of dialog. Not so simple after all.

[oldwino]

I'll give Dark a little slack re: the scumslip because it could have been a scum slip on my part, if I was thinking from my own vs. a general voting POV. If thinking from my own perspective, I'd have a 2/7 chance of randomly voting scum, removing the confBP and myself from the pool. But I was thinking from a general point of view, not my own, so I just removed the confBP from the pool of potential vote getters. I didn't consider removing the the unknown JK/tracker from the pool because I was thinking of voting numbers, not lynching likelihood numbers.

[oldwino]

I was embarrassed that I hadn't considered the numbers from my own POV, or that someone might view it that way, and that I hadn't clarified that I was illustrating from the general POV, and that I gave him an easy, if not valid, shot at me. I do appreciate his pointing out my lack of thinking that through, however. TBD if Dark was taking an opportunistic shot at me, however. I'm leaning scum on him, but this hasn't pushed me over the edge to vote him yet.

[oldwino]

@RC, yes please.
@ Icy and -Grey- you haven't voted. What are you two thinking?
@Dog, have you dropped out? You should have been prodded by now.

[oldwino]

@PP - Thoughts are with you and your family.


@ all - Sorry to see Dark had to claim. Damn. Hate to expose a second PR this early in the game.

I wouldn't quickhammer on D1. I may be naive, but not that naive. I would probably quickhammer to end a game when I am at least 50% sure hammering would fill my wincondition, but I can't envision any other time I'd quickhammer. If town, why not wait and see what else unfolds rather than make a mistake, which is likely? If scum, quickhammering would be a giveaway when the victim flipped town. Right? I'm looking to learn. Educate me, please.

If Dark had checked my only other game, I hammered on D1,

hammered Darkoz360 btw, weird, huh

? But I hammered only after giving everyone fair notice, hours and hours, to comment, to hammer themselves, or to withdraw their vote to avoid a lynch. He was at L1 a long time and the end of D1 was only a couple of hours away and it was late in my time zone. And that 'other Dark' was clearly suspicious with almost a consensus he was scum. He wasn't, of course, which is one reason I am so cautious and fence sit more than some players think is townlike.

BTW, what does cba mean? It's not in the mafia scum glossary.

I will be out most of today but will check in later in the afternoon and provide my best and latest thinking, and change my vote if there is good reason. Will come back early evening if we haven't lynched yet.

Still strongly suspect Mastina but also realize any of the unclaimed (except me, yes, LAMIST) could be scum. I could build a case for any of those six, but which case is strongest? I'll run through my logic when I have time later, if we aren't in N1 yet.

[oldwino]

The day all ran together and I couldn't get back to the game, just checking in now to see what I missed. The cc theory, cc'ing on D1 vs D2, and the implications of each, will take me some time to review and understand and I won't get to that until Tuesday because I am driving all day tomorrow (Monday) with no Internet access till evening, then I'll be TIRED.

Looks like we have until around 8 AM EDT Wed to lynch, so hopefully if I can get back into the game on Tuesday morning, I can still have input and have an effect, if needed. Still hoping to hear more from Mastina and RC and wondering where Dog is and why she hasn't been prodded.

I don't necessarily believe Dark's claim. If he is scum, that claim sounds like his best move because he was going to be lynched if e didn't claim. From the little I understand right now, without a cc during D1, I don't think we should lynch Dark D1. We could be lynching Dark the tracker. However, a cc during D1 exposes the real tracker (if not Dark) or the JK and they'd surely be killed N1, right? Sounds like a dilemma and since two experienced players, Smith and Grey, disagree on the 'cc or not to cc' on D1, it probably is a dilemma. So want to hear from RC and Mastina, and Dog as well.

[oldwino]

I started this post an hour or more ago, write, edit, write, edit, and just saw Dog's post implicating me as scum with Smith defending me as my papa bear. So, I will post what I wrote before Dog's post, and pick up my more complete analysis of everyone after this has been posted.

(What I wrote in draft but had not posted yet, before Dog's post) -

OK, given Mastina's RLI's, and NOT because she thinks I am scum and I'm trying to appease her - I know enough to know that wouldn't work - in fact this post might make me look scummier than she already perceives me to be but that's a risk I have to take to move the game along and tell everyone what I really think. Naive or not, dangerous to myself or not, I'm unvoting her.

UNVOTE: Mastina

If she were scum, I think she'd handle her play during her RLI's differently. Because there are only 2 scum, and the importance of their play (or strategic quietude), I think she would have subbed out. She's giving real reasons for her quietude. As town, she can afford to take some time off and not hurt town too much. As scum, her absence would be more harmful to her wincon.

So who does that leave?
Me, in her mind, but I think that's because she thinks I'm posting but not really scum hunting. I have been scum hunting, believing she is scum until she gave her recent explanation (severe RLI) so I hadn't changed my vote. I've been hoping others would see my POV on her and start a wagon. And I've been trying to figure out who her scum buddy is by reading others' reactions to her posts, or lack thereof. No one comes to the forefront, another reason I'm now thinking she's really town. No one is defending her or setting her up to look townie.

Smith - I realize scum can be and are often helpful to newbies, and try to appear helpful to experienced players, but in some ways I think Smith has more helpful than necessary if he were scum. Or, maybe, because he is such a good player he is scum and can appear to be 'too helpful' to newbies and to town and get away with it. But I also think being helpful is his gamestyle, town or scum. His 'overhelpfulness' still makes me lean townish on him, because if he were scum I don't think he'd be quite so helpful. Yes, I'm fence sitting on Smith so I'm still null on him.

The above is what I drafted before Dog's post. More soon.

[oldwino]

Addendum to my above post in reaction to Dog's post AFTER I read Dog's post thinking Smith and I are scum buddies.

Yes, I noticed Smith (and Grey, I think but I'll have to ISO him again) has been defending me, maybe moreso than necessary, and that made me suspicious of him because in my last (and first) game, an experienced scum played defended, played papa bear, to a newbie town to make himself (the experienced scum) look town-newbie helpful. Saw some of the same behavior from Smith towards me - but discounted it because I thought his defense of me was reasonable - he was defending my behavior that was town, but perceived to be scummy by Mastina. My justified fence sitting when I wasn't sure of someone, noticing their scummy and townie behaviors. My sticking to my guns re: my read on Mastina despite not much support from anyone else. So I thought Smith's (and maybe Grey's, if I am right about him defending me too) was well justified because Mastina's attack on me was NOT justified. So I'm still null on Smith, btw. And I'm wondering now about Dog's quick switch to suspect me as scum - maybe a defense of herself since we're both on Mastina's scummy list. But I haven't ISO's Dog yet, so not judging her yet. My quick response is that her suspicion of me is justified in her mind. And I think if she were scum, she'd have attacked me sooner in the game, not waiting for Mastina to narrow down her list. But maybe she's being opportunistic. I have to ISO her first to make a stronger call. Working on that but it may take a little while.

[oldwino]

Want to confirm
UNVOTE: Mastina
because it was in my italicized post above and not sure the mod would count it.

[oldwino]

Picking up with my analysis of 'everyone.'

Before Dog's post and my taking time to react, I was ISOing Lemo/Pieg/Ulti.

Originally I suspected Ulti because he wasn't posting and then voted Mastina to L1 without reason and without noting it was L1.
Then I thought he and Mastina were scum buddies, with his vote on her a distraction (since he did it incorrectly and it was never counted). But this clearly could have been newbie ignorance. I checked and Ulti dropped out of his next newbie game too. So I ended up null on Ulti.

Then Ulti opted out and Pieg came to play.
Pieg was obviously experienced, likes coaching, but I think got bored and left with the reason of 'making room for a true newbie." Overall, I think Pieg asked scum hunting questions, although he was not really active or invested in this game. If he were scum, I think the game would have been more interesting and he would have stuck around (is asking to replace out AI???). So, I was null leaning town on Pieg.

Lemon, I think, is asking good questions and invested in the game, although not as active as I would like. Not too much to go on. Active enough today not to be just lurking. So null to leaning town.

So, for me, the slot is null leaning town. But not leaning town by much.

[oldwino]

What do I think of RC?
At first, I leaned town. He shared his 'must claim or not claim BP' strategy, but would have done that even if scum or it would have been a scum tell. Promised more logic later, but then Smith cited the game and theory where RC fully explained that so RC didn't come back to it (something Smith didn't have to do if he were scum - so another mark for me on the smithtown checklist). Then RC aligned himself with me thinking Mastina was scum (but never voted her, I think) so I felt very townie toward RC. Then RC mostly disappeared so I got suspicious, then came back and explained RLI. I was suspicious of all of his one-liners, so ISO'd him in another newbie game when he was town and found the same thing. I can see RC being bored here, playing elsewhere, and just hanging around enough to stay alive.

But I haven't seen any strong scum hunting. And now his aligning with me thinking Mastina was scum is suspicious, assuming Mastina is town. But RC backed off of Mastina a while back. So, now I'm null leaning town on RC. More fence sitting on my part. Can't help it. I felt really strongly about my two scum picks in my first game and was wrong about both. I'm gun shy, but want to stay involved, play, and stir things up,m try to get people to slip or show illogical conclusions. We have to lynch someone and finding the two scum is HARD. But right now I don't feel strongly about RC either way. Probably town, just not too interested in this specific game.

[oldwino]

At the extreme risk of appearing defensive and even OMGUS, Dog was pro Smith and appeared to be even pro me through post 485. Then in her next post, 504, she voted smith citing (only) a possible slip from him in 195, which I have read three times and I still cannot spot the slip she claims is there. She had no other logic to suspect Smith back then when she voted him. Today, she ISO'd Smith and finds that he defended me a few times (against Mastina) and cites that as evidence that Smith and I are the scum team. Grey also defended me a time or two, and so did she (Dog), I believe, a couple of times to Mastina. I think Dog's worried that she's on Mastina's short list and is starting to panic with D1 drawing to a close, whether she is scum or not.

Back in post 504, Dog said she leaned town on me, but maybe I was really a good scum actor - setting me and smith up as a scum team later, much later, today in post 741, after Mastina listed Smith, her (Dog), and me as her top scum suspects. Opportunistic, especially with her (Dog) on Mastina's likely scum list. Dog had never sided with Mastina on anything up until then that I can find, except her (Dog's) vote on Smith. Dog had also been more critical of Mastina and Grey, than of Smith, until she voted for Smith.

Maybe Dog is just sheeping Mastina, but after not believing anything she said most of the game? If I read all of Dog's posts, admittedly with a scumbias, she looks pretty scummy to me. And that's not just OMGUS because until she flipped on Smith with (I think) no good cited reason except post 195, she was highly suspicious of Mastina and Grey, not Smith. What happened to change her mind, if in fact she did change her mind? Much more likely she is scum and has been playing these angles all along. Now I am asking myself and looking around, who would be her most likely scum partner? RC? Lemon? Grey? Who has she distanced herself from the most, without causing them any real damage? And who has been distancing themself from Dog?

Of course, Smith could be scum and I could be wrong, but I am still null or leaning town on him especially now that he's got a wagon going that I think is weak (Mastina with no logic, Dog as I cited above, and now Dark - with no logic behind his vote either). I no longer think Mastina is scum, I know her logic about me is wrong (LAMIST), and I think her logic about Smith is wrong (not that Mastina has used logic to back up any of her suspicions, even those on Dog).

I'm not ready to vote Dog yet, because I wasn't that suspicious of her until today. I am still almost as suspicious of RC and Grey. And not sure about Lemon. Still doing more ISOing. But have to take a break now. Let's see what my last few posts stir up. Then I'll be back.

[oldwino]

I agree, clearly we need to lynch someone, even if it's a townie (which statistically it will be, even now) so we can learn from the flip. No hard feelings about your take on me. I'll sip some scotch and get over it.

I see your logic and in fact wondered about Smith's (and Grey's and your) defense of me earlier as looking like papa/momma bear behavior, and not even if I was their scum buddy but if they (you) saw me as townie lynchbait and wanted to look like they/you were a townie defending poor old naive lynchbait townie me. I think I noted before that in my first (and only) other game so far, an experienced, well-respected player defended a newbie who was playing so poorly I was sure he was scum (a few others were sure too). I didn't understand the experienced player's defense of the obvious scum newbie, but turns out the experienced player was scum pretending to protect/defend the naive, lynchbait townie. I stuck my neck out pressing against the other newbie and got lynched instead of him (he was a VT too). Scum got away with it and scum won on D2 without losing anyone. But in that case, the VT was playing really poorly and frankly and I couldn't believe, for any reason, a scum would defend him.

I may be playing like a newbie but not so poorly as to need protected, I thought. To be reasonably defended, yes, well deserved defense against not-so-strong attacks, which is what I thought Smith, Grey, and you have been doing, with GOOD townie reason. But maybe not. Maybe one of you is scum using me as cover.

Agreed we have to lynch someone but I won't help lynch Smith this time around unless we are at an absolute 'no lynch' spot at 8 AM my time tomorrow. I am > 50% sure he's town. Even if he is scum, he's adding a lot to the game, more than others I suspect like RC and Grey, so I'd rather lynch one of them, or Smith's partner if he is scum and we can identify him/her. I feel 100% town about Icy and Dark (and me), 90% sure of Mastina, 60% sure of Smith, 55% good about Lemon, and then less so about you, Grey, and RC, but not real scummy about any of you either. I will do more ISOing, see what others say, and help lynch whomever I feel scummiest about when I have to make a decision. I don't to want hammer if I don't have to because I hammered an innocent VT in my first game. I will if I have to, though, to get a lynch.

[oldwino]

Gut (there's that word again) tells me there's little chance Mastina and Ulti are scumbuddies. If Mastina is scum, then she's coaching behind the scenes, and there's no way Ulti would come up with such a terrible vote (on his own scumbuddy no less) if they're conversing outside this thread.

I think Dogwatch townslipped here.

Sorry, I don't understand what you mean by 'townslipped' here. Was she trying to sound town but sounded scum? Or inadvertently sounded like town without knowing it? And wouldn't that just be smart play? I don't pick up any slippage in either direction in post 292. Since I'm undecided about DW, understanding your point is important for me. And also, this was over a week ago and she's changed her stance on Mastina now (without giving any reason that I can find). I'm pretty equally suspicious, even though not strongly so, about both Lemonater and DW, and may have to vote one way or the other, so the best reasoning you can share, the better.

[oldwino]

Got it, understand it. If she were scum, she'd have known scum couldn't be communicating during the day and probably wouldn't think to fake that lack of knowledge. Thanks.

[oldwino]

@ Dark, any idea why you are still here? Who did you target? Guess you saw nothing or the mod would have reported that, right?

[oldwino]

Alright this is textbook scum!Grey sheep me guys I didn't read the rest of the game besides Grey's ISO at all.
VOTE: Grey
For my next magic trick, I will make Grey's scumbuddy bus him because that's the best way to play mafia.
In all seriousness I can explain a bit more in-depth when I get home.

OK, so I had this theory all ready to post, suspecting Grey in every scum-scum combination I came up with, with RC as my lead suspect to be scum buddies with Grey.

Now Alisae says she's going to make Grey's scum buddy bus him, in effect, saying that whomever now suspects or votes Grey is his scum buddy. Doesn't that just scare people away from suspecting and voting Grey? Isn't that what Grey's scum buddy would want to do? Distance himself from Grey and discourage anyone else from strongly suspecting, making a case against, and voting Grey? Exactly the right move as RC's replacement scum buddy of Grey's.

Why do I suspect Grey-RC on D1? I figure the early D1 posturing, mostly Grey toward RC, was to create distance, etc. etc. Grey even told us, sarcastically, that any vote except on him or RC was a waste. Then at one point he voted himself. He changed his vote 7-8 times, and he hammered Smith. Yes, Smith asked for it, but I figure Grey was happy to oblige with the excuse Smith asked him to. And in twilight RC even said he thought Grey was scum - more distancing. Then RC replaces out overnight. Why? Gee, I thought, RC and Grey must have continued their real feud overnight and RC had enough of Grey. Couldn't work with Grey, too much disagreement and bad blood.

This is all still fitting my theory about Grey and RC as the team. Then no night kill. Why not? We have a BP and a tracker, who wouldn't NK the tracker? Only a scum team that was feuding and couldn't reach agreement on WHO would make the kill. Then Grey replaces out. Why? Can't quite figure that out, unless the feud with RC bummed him out so much he wanted out of the game and/or he figured, given Smith's indictment of him during twilight (and before) he was going to be lynched on D2.

Now Alasae comes in replacing RC and immediately distances himself from Grey, wants others to sheep him but promises to not only provide evidence Grey is scum, but get his scumbuddy to bus him too, discouraging anyone from seriously attacking and voting Grey.

Yep, I'm new and don't understand a lot, but this just seems so straightforward.

[oldwino]

Oh, I forgot.
VOTE: Grey
or his replacement at this point.

[oldwino]

Smith scumread Grey strongly in twilight.

[oldwino]

I strongly scumread Mastina until near the end of D1 when everyone else backed off. She hasn't posted now in several days and I'm surprised she hasn't replaced out as well. I backed off because I thought, if she were scum and had too much RLI in the way of playing scum well (more important than playing town well on D1), she would have replaced out to be fair to he scum buddy. But she's still on my list of possible Grey scum buddies, or her slot is, because Grey would be strong enough and was doing a good job of holding up the scum team's interests well enough without her. So she's still on my list of scum possibilities, but lower on the list than RC/Alisae.

[oldwino]

Depends on who soon you think you can get back and, if scum, how strong your partner is without you, IMO. But from what I've seen, most people disagree with that.

[oldwino]

Smith scumread Grey strongly in twilight.

OK, I re-read twilight and Smith didn't scum read Grey as strongly as I thought, or maybe as strongly as I was hoping.
His dialog with RC was interesting, though. Still some suspicion of RC (and even me, slightly).
I wanted to correct this misperception/misrepresentation of Smith's twilight thoughts about Grey. Lots of animosity, but no clear scum read.

[oldwino]

Why?

[oldwino]

@ Mastina,
WHY do you townread Grey???? All of your assumptions are based on that, and your assumptions are WRONG.
I'd go along with lynching Alisae, because I think he is Grey's most likely scum partner. But if he flips town, you've incriminated yourself and right now, I'm leaning town on you despite your misread of me (and Smith and others that I think are leaning town) since the beginning of the game (LAMIST of course). But why NOT Grey's slot? It looks like you are defending him with no reason, which makes you look like his scum partner and I'd like to clear you of that, since I've started leaning town on you.

[oldwino]

@ Icy, I think you are right on. You probably got targeted because your scum list is accurate, and last I read it, you suspected Grey, RC (Alisae), and Lemon. Where are you now on Mastina?

[oldwino]

was Grey more lynchable then here or was Grey more globally TR'd?

Grey was mostly townread and for good reason.

More of your vague, unfounded, unsupported declarations. WHY?

[oldwino]

Mastina is still avoiding my "why' question about Grey. And continuing to assert I am scum with no reasons. Dark, you have been wrong all along.
If we had three scum, I'd assert Grey, Alisae, and Mastina.

[oldwino]

@oldwino, if you scumread Alisae vote them

I read Grey's spot stronger.

Got to take a dinner break and probably won't be back until tomorrow morning.
By which time maybe we'll have a Grey replacement.

[oldwino]

If I were scum, I could have easily helped lynch Smith, whom I defended all D1. See who wanted Smith lynched. Look there.

[oldwino]

Icy RC is right about this stuff

@Alisae - I just want to confirm you mean RC was right about his scum reads of Grey near the end of D1?

@ Everyone
I've been skimming and reading and skimming. Much of Mastina's analysis is too dense for me and since she is convinced I am scum, and has been since page 1, I don't think I'll change her mind even if I could follow enough of her logic to try to counter it. And Dark seems determined to sheep Mastina, so they both will just go on thinking I am scum until the truth is finally revealed.

On to battles maybe I can influence. Grey is still my strongest scum lean, but some of that may be my dislike of his play style, his over zealous antagonism toward several players, his walls of ranting, etc. etc. But I am still suspicious because of his 6-7 vote changes, not slinging mud to see 'what sticks' as Mastina characterized it, but putting up votes of players he knew were town to see if he could gather any support to lynch any of them. Except maybe for his early vote on RC, which I interpret, in my Grey-RC scum scenario, as distancing, etc. etc. of his scum buddy.

No one has responded, I don't think, to my crazy scenario of both RC and Grey replacing out because they had a scum feud overnight and couldn't agree on WHO would kill Dark (or Icy, take your pick). I spotted this feud early on and asked Grey about bad blood between them from a previous game, which he denied. I asked him how he read RC and he said he couldn't read RC on D1. Just lots of pro-con attitude from Grey towards RC which made me, and still makes me, suspicious of the pair. Alisea seems more town to me than RC did, maybe because of my read of the Grey-RC battles and interaction. Alisea seems more genuinely helpful scum hunting than RC did. RC posted a lot of one-liners with no strong reasoning. He was strongest during twilight when Smith's fate was decided. Scummy RC, I thought, stay away for most of D1 then show up to watch the lynch?

Alisae seems much more town to me than RC did, but since it's the slot that matters, I don't know. Maybe she's playing better scum than RC did, maybe BECAUSE Grey isn't around antagonizing. A fresh start for that slot.

My other scum leanings are still Mastina, although her long absence during the last part f D1 made me less suspicious of her. I don't think she'd leave her scum buddy alone that long if her buddy was a newbie, but maybe she would leave Grey alone, figuring he could handle scum's interests well enough on his own - and get her out of sight for a while. But for some reason, ethics maybe, I don't think she'd leave even Grey alone near the end of D1 if they were scum buddies. That leaves lemonator and Dog. I think I believe Dog's townslip - much better players than me believe it. So that leaves Lemon, who I've leaned town on most of the game.

For me - it's Scum Grey, partnered with almost a toss up among, but in order, Alisae (because of RC's play and interactions with Grey), then Mastina, then Lemonator.

[oldwino]

@ PP or IC

Isn't there some kind of 'penalty' for replacing out? I think I read that somewhere but can't find it again. Like a 48 hour ban from playing a new game, or something like that? All this replacing out is killing this game - and that only increases the likelihood others will replace out.

IMO unless there are significant real life issues, replacing out should carry a heavy penalty, like a month's ban from playing ANY other games. If you have to replace out, replace out of ALL the games in which you are currently playing and suffer a month's ban from joining any new games.

[oldwino]

Even if Alisae is town?

[oldwino]

I'd be 90% sure of Alisae/RC's leads if the slot flips town. At least we'd trust those leads to be town motivated, so we'd know they believe them. That's a lot of good info, but I'd hate to mislynch Alisae to learn that. How are you feeling about Grey? I'd like to see his replacement's interactions with Alisae, Mastina, and Lemon's replacement before lynching, since we have time.

[oldwino]

Grey's replacement may or may not push an Alisae lynch if they (Grey and RC slots) are scum buddies. Grey and RC had a really antagonistic relationship - remember, I think they both may have replaced out because of a scum buddy feud during N1.

I have to do some logic, but I think I'd agree to wagon on Grey's replacement, Alisae, Mastina, or Lemon's replacement, but want to hear from the replacements before deciding.

Dog is 75% conftown for me because of the townslip that most seem to believe. Since Dark tracked Mastina and she was inactive, that's a plus town in her favor, although I think the scum team would have had the lessor visible buddy do the kill (Lemonator is my first choice to be Mastina's scum buddy).

These four in this order: Grey, Alisae, Lemon and Mastina are a mix and match for me as the scum team but all within a few % points of each other. I want to do the logic for myself and see how many mislynches we can have before we get to MyLO or LyLO. I'll do that logic in the morning. But since RC/Alisae is my 2nd choice as scum, whether or not Grey is her scum buddy, I'd join an Alisae wagon and see what we learn, depending on what replacements have to say.

[oldwino]

I've tried to figure out the logic of how many mislynches, or no lynches, we can afford and still possibly win. But this is the first time I've tried to figure this out and I haven't seen any explanations of it anywhere else. SO, anyone and everyone, please comment on this logic. This is all predicated on Dark, Icy, and me being town, which from my POV is the only way I can look at it now, even though I mostly trust Dog to be town and know some of you don't trust me and scum will want to discredit me if this logic is correct.

D2 we lynch Alisae (or anyone, I think) who flips town. 7 left, 5 and 2.
N2 scum kills Dark (or Icy, doesn't matter). 6 left, 4 and 2

D3 if we mislynch, no matter whom, Grey most likely will be the vote, and he flips town, 5 will be left, 3 T and 2S. Game over because
N3 scum kills any other townie and there are only 4 left, 2T and 2S and no way for town to lynch on D4 so game over after the D3 mislynch.

BUT if we follow this scenario and instead of lynching anyone on D3, with 6 left, and vote NO LYNCH, which the 4 remaining townies can do, then we are still at 4 and 2 going into N4.
N4 scum kills a townie, 5 left, 3T and 2S.

On D5 we still have a chance to lynch scum and win. Right?

If so, if my logic is correct, I say we lynch Alisae today (or anyone except Icy, Dark, or me, really) and then vote No Lynch on D3. All 4 townies vote No Lynch, the two scum are exposed. Of course, I think, one scum could vote NL and one townie would be left not voting along with the other scum and we're guessing on D5, but isn't that better than two mislynches? Or is my logic wrong?

Of course if we are right about Alisae, we're in better shape. And if Icy didn't lose her BP on N1, we're in better shape. And if Dark tracks the scum killer and doesn't get killed himself N2, we're in better shape.

What do you all think?

[oldwino]

Alisae is now L2, correct?

[oldwino]

Going out for the day, hope to get back online late afternoon/evening, but maybe not until tomorrow.

[oldwino]

I've tried to figure out the logic of how many mislynches, or no lynches, we can afford and still possibly win. But this is the first time I've tried to figure this out and I haven't seen any explanations of it anywhere else. SO, anyone and everyone, please comment on this logic. This is all predicated on Dark, Icy, and me being town, which from my POV is the only way I can look at it now, even though I mostly trust Dog to be town and know some of you don't trust me and scum will want to discredit me if this logic is correct.

D2 we lynch Alisae (or anyone, I think) who flips town. 7 left, 5 and 2.
N2 scum kills Dark (or Icy, doesn't matter). 6 left, 4 and 2

D3 if we mislynch, no matter whom, Grey most likely will be the vote, and he flips town, 5 will be left, 3 T and 2S. Game over because
N3 scum kills any other townie and there are only 4 left, 2T and 2S and no way for town to lynch on D4 so game over after the D3 mislynch.

BUT if we follow this scenario and instead of lynching anyone on D3, with 6 left, and vote NO LYNCH, which the 4 remaining townies can do, then we are still at 4 and 2 going into N4.
N4 scum kills a townie, 5 left, 3T and 2S.

On D5 we still have a chance to lynch scum and win. Right?

If so, if my logic is correct, I say we lynch Alisae today (or anyone except Icy, Dark, or me, really) and then vote No Lynch on D3. All 4 townies vote No Lynch, the two scum are exposed. Of course, I think, one scum could vote NL and one townie would be left not voting along with the other scum and we're guessing on D5, but isn't that better than two mislynches? Or is my logic wrong?

Of course if we are right about Alisae, we're in better shape. And if Icy didn't lose her BP on N1, we're in better shape. And if Dark tracks the scum killer and doesn't get killed himself N2, we're in better shape.

What do you all think?

WOE.....You say you think the scum team is Allisae/TB, but in your only d2 scenario the person we lynch is TOWN!!! I don't for one minute believe Alisae and TB are both scum.
It also bothers me a LOT that you are worried about our best course of action on day 3.

What is WOE? Woah? Stop?

I'm not 'worried' about our action on D3, I was plotting out how many mislynches/no lynches we can afford before all is lost. The worst case scenario. Do you, or anyone, see fault in that logic? And why does thinking ahead like that bother you?

I've explained my rationale several times for the original RC/Grey scum team, now inherited by Ali and TB. No one has responded to that logic, no one really countering it except saying they don't think RC and Grey were scum partners. I still think that's a likely team, but also said I've got close scum reads on Mastina and Lemon (ChrisO) as well. So I'm sticking with Grey/RC (where my original suspicions come from) - now Alisae/TB because they inherited those slots - as my most likely scum team- but I'm also certainly think it could be any two of the four I suspect, with Dog as an outside 5th choice. I already said I'd vote for Ali after we hear from the two new replacements, but don't want to take Ali to L1 until we're all more sure she's our first choice and we give the replacements a chance to read, think, and speak.

I only worked out the logic if we mislynch on D2, a worst case scenario. If we lynch scum on D2, and/or Dark successfully tracks scum overnight, and/or Icy didn't get shot N1, then we have a better chance of winning, especially IF Ali flips scum, which I hope she does.

[oldwino]

That's the way we're headed, with your vote taking her to L2 and my commitment to change my vote from Grey to Ali if that's the consensus of the group, AFTER we hear more from the new replacements and if their posts etc. don't change a mind (and vote) or two. No hurry, though.

[oldwino]

I see Alisae is at L-2. What is the case on Alisae?

I'll give you my case on her. She replaced RC. If you read nightfall you will see she is doing what RC said he would do today. I don't think the scum team is Mastina/Grey. On day one however I did believe one or the other was. It also seems the town has the most to learn from a Alisae lynch.

@ Icy - So you think we should lynch Alisae, but haven't voted her yet. Why not? I think I know, but would like to hear it from you.

[oldwino]

My vote is still on Grey/TB but I admit a lot of my suspicion of Grey was his playstyle, being helpful to town and newbies but not too helpful, his feud with RC on D1 that I thought was distancing from a scum buddy (RC, now Alisae) that he didn't like being partnered with, his feud with Smith who flipped town, etc. etc.

If anyone has doubts about RC/Alisae, we could still lynch Grey - although I'd like to give TB a few days (real time) to speak up, establish himself, and maybe redeem the slot from maybe just poor play, rather than scummy play, from Grey. Or maybe TB won't redeem the slot either.

And just a reminder, I am willing to get on an Alisae wagon depending on how the game unfolds over the next few days (real time) - lynching that slot may still give us a lot of info gleaned from RC's D1 (especially twilight) play.

I'll be off line tomorrow, but want to go back within the next couple of days and review that twilight conversation among RC, Grey, and Smith and then look at a couple days of play from Alisae and TB. And reread D1 in light of what we hear from Alisae and TB. I suggest others do the same.

[oldwino]

I'm back for just a little while, hopefully back and attentive more late afternoon/evening.

I've caught up reading and have to say I like Chris's posts. Lots of effort and analysis that scum might do, but more townlike to me. Lemon and others in this slot have been weak and that was probably their biggest scum tell - not saying much, seeming like inexperienced scum not knowing what to do. Chris is playing, moreso than he'd need to if he were scum and kind of out of sight as we all debate lynching Ali or Mastina or Grey.

TB on the other hand hasn't said much. Posted, but not said anything I see of substance. What I think a
scum replacement would do, who is already under fire. And he picked a fight with Ali, bringing back memories of the early Grey/RC feud, and voting her (Ali). I think that was forced, the fight building an excuse to vote, and TB is trying for an Ali lynch. Opportunistic, as Ali would say.

So, for now, my vote stays on TB(Grey) and I'm less likely to change it to Ali than I was previously.

And I like Chris's case against Mastina, who I suspected early in D1 and still hold in high suspicion. Her logic was bad on D1 and I agree with Chris, it's lousy on D2 too. So my vote stays on TB/Grey, Mastina is next, then maybe still Ali but probably not if TB or Mastina flip scum.

Gotta leave again, but wanted to get these thoughts posted.

[oldwino]

Hey Dog, please stick around. You're one of the more pleasant players to read and reply to (even though I don't reply much).

[oldwino]

And I do wonder why all of these experienced players want to play newbie games. Often, it sounds like they are here to show off and play against each other, not help us learn the game. YES, a helpful IC and couple of SE's can and should be helpful, but a few of them really overdo it - dominate the game vs. help it move along. Others, I find helpful but I'm not naming names. Enough, back to trying to figure out what's going on here re: scum and town.

[oldwino]

VOTE: mastina
If I can't get the Grey slot, I'll go get mastina.

You didn't note 'L1." TB had to do it for you. Makes you look more suspicious and him less suspicious, unless Mastina is his scum buddy and he wanted to make sure no one hammered without realizing it. Now I am alone voting TB/Grey. With Mastina and Alisae as my next two scum suspicions. Around and around we go!

[oldwino]

I'm catching up bit by bit. Have an hour or two a day to play this GAME. Catching up with posts, much less thinking about them and then writing a coherent post takes more than that hour or two.

Anyway, as I read posts, others' reactions to posts, review votes counts and changes, and try to judge who is truthful and who is blowing smoke and who is keeping their heads low, I still suspect any of the four I've suspected in recent days, probably suspected soon after we moved out of RVS and Dark claimed. Dark was a high scum lean for me, so I was surprised by his claim and that changed my thinking on a couple of other players too. But I still think his logic is flawed so will not sheep his votes. Icy, on the other hand, seems to have logic I resonate with so trust her leads.

My four scum leads are still TB/Grey, Mastina, Ali/RC, and Chris/Lemon. Dog is still an outside possibility.

Anyway, Alisae disappoints me here. The Grey slot, TB, had 2 votes (me and Ali) and Mastina PROMISED in 1139 to vote him if he didn't provide meaningful info soon, which he has not done. So, Alisae, if your vote stayed on Grey, he could be at L2 if Mastina kept her word. And I think others would have followed and TB/Grey would be at L1 instead of Mastina.

VOTE: mastina
If I can't get the Grey slot, I'll go get mastina.

I don't like that the wagon formed on Mastina so quickly, even though she is my #2 scum read (still possible to be buddies with TB/Grey, despite how things may appear).

Anyone want to come back to th Grey/TB wagon?

[oldwino]

@mastina, thanks for that information. I did some browsing in the archives and found that day 1 scum lynches were more likely to result in a scum win than a town win.

Yeah, but games with a D1 town lynch were probably ALSO more likely to have a scum win. Don't scum win most of the time, especially in newbie games?

[oldwino]

@ Mastina,
Thanks for your response to my post about having too many experienced players, who dominate, in newbie games.
Our styles are very different but I still appreciate your commitment to teaching.

IMO - MS needs to have some non-newbie matrix 6 games, since they seem to be so popular with experienced players. And maybe only allow three experienced players in each newbie game, one IC and two SE's, and not allow anyone with more than 3-4-5 games completed to join even as a replacement. That way, newbies would not feel so overwhelmed (and often inferior).

And I do wonder why all of these experienced players want to play newbie games.

Well, there's three basic reasons:
One, to teach. You don't have to be the IC to like to teach, either; a lot of SEs teach even when not given the IC role.
It is also mandatory for the IC to teach. (Though how they do so is largely their discretion.)

Two, to learn. SEs tend to want to gain knowledge. It is also not impossible for an IC to learn. For instance, from this game I have gained ideas for theories to publish, and also have thought of a subject I hadn't given much thought which I feel makes a good MD thread, and this is because I am not omniscient and therefore my understanding of the game can evolve from interacting with others.

Three, to play in a specific environment. Newbies have a lot of factors unique to Newbies: every game is micro-sized. Every game is a semi-open. Every game is hydra-free (I mean to me this is a negative trait but oh well; others see it as a positive). It is the only queue to consistently hold all three of these traits. You can get one of them in micros, another in opens, and a third in Normals, but even there that's not entirely consistent.

Often, it sounds like they are here to show off and play against each other, not help us learn the game.

Technically speaking, the only player required to help you learn the game is the IC. In that regard, I can only say I've done the best I am capable of doing of helping you learn the game. I have given you my perspective on theories, as they become relevant information. I have explained my perspective, and why I feel these things are true. I have also attempted to basically have a one-on-one teaching session with a newbie (DogWatch).

For that matter, I have also engaged another newbie (Icy, albeit admittedly not as much as I probably should). I do admit, I have neglected to directly engage Darklyn (though that's honestly largely because I feel he doesn't need much help) and also you, so if you feel I have not given you as much effort to help you learn as I should, my apologies. (This of course, originating from how different your style is from mine, so it's difficult for me to parse and give input.)

But strictly speaking, the SEs cannot be held to any standard at all. They are allowed to be and do almost whatever they want. (Within reason.) So they are not required to teach, they are not required to help newbies learn. I mean. Frankly, I kind-of

wish

they were. But it's a little bit unfair to expect a person who is still fairly new to pick up that role. For instance, oldwino, next game, you'd be an SE. Would you feel comfortable teaching to the extent, saaaaaay, mhsmith did? Of course not. But SE just means "third game or more, yet not the IC". If you get an SE who has played 30 games, ideally, yes, mandating them helping to teach a newbie would be nice. Yet because the definition of SE is so broad, we can't enforce anything on them.

Basically, what I'm saying here is: if you hold a problem with me, you absolutely

do

need to name my name. Because I am literally the only one who holds an actual, legal requirement to teach as per the laws of mafiascum. So a breach of that conduct from ME is important for me to know about.

[oldwino]

There are lots of newbies in the queue, they just have to be asked, encouraged, to play as a replacement, which I know is a harder job than playing from scratch. I waited 5-6 weeks to get in my first game.

[oldwino]

I know town players don't do NKA.

Why?

@ Mastina, did you misspeak? Did you mean to say you 'know town players

who

don't do NK?" Because, point of fact, town players, some, many do NKA. I think several of us have been analyzing D1 in light of scum going after Icy rather than Dark.

[oldwino]

Eh, just tried going through Chris's recent posts. To be honest, I had a hard time really following all of it but I'm getting a gut feeling that mastina is using lots of weaselly words and reasoning to make herself sound correct, and that seems to be Chris's main point. I like Chris's tone more, but I'm not SOLD either way still.

I can picture both of them being town and scum at the same time.

Unless one of them makes a spectacular mistake (unlikely), I feel like I'm just going to keep going back and forth on this.

@mastina, can you walk me through again why a scum team with you on it wouldn't kill Darklyn?

@ Dog - I agree with you. Mastina's logic is HARD to follow, Chris's is easier, more straightforward, but still a web of logic that could be woven by scum. Either could be scum. I doubt they are a scum team but ANYTHING is possible.

I think we might be building a wagon on TB/Grey. Alisae has said she'd come back on. Mastina promised a while back.

[oldwino]

Alisae has been on the Grey/TB wagon since the start of D2. Her vote change would not be opportunistic.
FYI though - I'm still not town reading Alisae or Mastina or Chris either, but Grey/TB has been my strongest scum read since just out of RVS. And I'm not tunneling, in my mind anyway, because I said I'd vote any of these 4 if and when necessary. 'Necessary' is as we approach end of D2. I'm not in any hurry and anyone who quicklynches a wagon I am on will be my vote the next day, assuming I'm not NKd.

[oldwino]

I think it was in 1255, Chris did some analysis and asked what I thought of the DogWatch slot.
Dog is null to me. Not a lot of participation, maybe depending too much on Mastina, so if Mastina flips scum, Dog becomes higher on my scum list.
But, general consensus is her townslip re: daychat among scum would be too hard for her to have thought of herself, so she would have had to have some really good coaching in pre-game, and there wasn't a lot of time in pregame. But that strategy is something any experienced player could have had waiting for whenever they got a true newbie scum partner. So Dog is not out of the doghouse, yet. But down to #5 on my list, so pretty null. Nothing to be learned from a lynch, except that she had a smart scum partner, most likely Mastina, but only by a fraction.

[oldwino]

Did anyone else catch this!

For what it's worth, if ThinkBig

doesn't

deliver a metric fuckton of good content relatively soon,

I

will be lynching him.

Ready for the metric fuckton of good content
wait for it.....

VOTE: Alisae

Ah well, I never did understand the metric system. but I thought a "fuckton" would be more. In any case it was good enough for Mastina.

I saw Mastina's promise and have been waiting.
I am expecting Mastina to keep her word and change her vote to TB. It's been a couple of days and he hasn't said anything of substance yet.
@ Mastina, we won't see your vote change to TB as opportunistic. You promised it days ago.

[oldwino]

I for one trust your leans and votes, although I am not 100% townconf of Chris, but like you said, he's not in any apparent danger now anyway.

[oldwino]

I was prodded too. Trying to wait out Mastina's response to my criticism of TB and seeing whether she'd vote him or at least start to lean a little scummy on him. She says he's posted enough real content to keep her off his wagon, but is not convinced he is town, wants to give him more time. I still don't see it, I still think TB is holding back, and is now proposing a scum team of newbies to explain away the N action against Icy instead of Dark (two of his newbie scum teams include me, his long-time and consistent vote). Except for this recent post, I still think TB is mostly lurking, keeping his head down, and is now trying to turn the tables on me. But, I won't stay on his wagon for much longer if I don't get any more support. I'll spend my time instead figuring out where to move my vote, that is who is my #2 scum read now.

Is there any support out there for a Grey/TB wagon? Last call.
Another couple of hours and I'll move my vote if we don't take Grey/TB to L2 at least.

[oldwino]

They seem to be strong town reading each other, at least saying they do, with Mastina posting too much and TB not posting enough. I'm more confident TB (Grey) is scum, and at this point his flipping scum points toward Mastina as his scum buddy, but they've been so supportive of each other, I think that team is ???? If either flips town, it makes the other look town. I'm kind of at a loss about what any flip will tell us, getting pretty confused, so will have to go back and read interactions from D1. Will try to do that tomorrow.

Join the TB wagon and keep it alive. I think Alisae would jump on if you did. Then we'd be at L2 and see if that gets anyone else in addition to Mastina, you, Alisae and me to talk about TB.

[oldwino]

Guess this could prove my RC/Grey alliance suspicion from end of D1 incorrect, eh?

[oldwino]

Maybe, but when you're scum, you're probably REALLY good scum. Maybe scum this game, maybe not, but thanks for hoping on (still Grey in my mind) TB's wagon and making things more interesting.

[oldwino]

It's also very interesting that Oldwino is basing Mastinas alliance on Thinkbigs flip.

Icy - I don't know what you mean here. Please explain/elaborate.

[oldwino]

They seem to be strong town reading each other, at least saying they do, with Mastina posting too much and TB not posting enough. I'm more confident TB (Grey) is scum, and at this point his flipping scum points toward Mastina as his scum buddy, but they've been so supportive of each other, I think that team is ???? If either flips town, it makes the other look town. I'm kind of at a loss about what any flip will tell us, getting pretty confused, so will have to go back and read interactions from D1. Will try to do that tomorrow.

Ok, now I think I understand Icy's post referring to my view of an alliance between Mastina and TB. What I said, or tried to say, is that these two, TB and Mastina, could well be scum buddies. Mastina has defended Grey/TB throughout the game when I find Grey/TB very scummy. So to me, that implicates Mastina. If TB flips scum, that reinforces, to me, Mastina as his scum buddy because she has been defending the slot all game. If TB flips down, that exonerates Mastina's on-going defense of him.

[oldwino]

I really don't see a strong case on TB/Grey, can one or all of you state you case, please.

Here's my case as best as I can put it.

Grey seemed to post a lot without saying too much, feuding with different players, clouding the scum hunting by posting lots of posts, many of them empty and many of them long. Some of his feuding could have been bussing, but nevertheless, I didn't find it helpful as scum hunting. His more serious scum reads seemed to be Smith. Then he hung around at the end of D1 and hammered him. It appears as a mercy hammering, Smith knew someone would do it and kept asking just to get it over. Grey obliged, then hung around and talked with Smith and RC for a long time in twilight. I think Grey did this to appear regretful, but maybe not. Then he replaces out just after D2 breaks, whereas RC replaced out overnight. I still think it's possible RC and Grey were scum buddies and had a major disagreement over who to NK, Icy (shot 1 to her BP) or Dark, the tracker. You'd think experienced scum would NK Dark, but maybe one of the Grey/RC team wanted to play WIFOM. Or maybe they wanted to take their shot at Icy because she was suspicious of one of them while Dark was not and was pointing at others.

He also supported Mastina a lot, another of my very scummy reads, especially during D1. I don't see Grey and Mastina pressing each other at all, mostly just defending each other.

Grey also moved his vote a lot, maybe trying to get reactions but maybe to see what would stick. And he self-voted. And he seemed to almost dare us to suspect him of scum. Arrogance, yes his playstyle, but overly done I think, almost mocking us because we wouldn't dare suspect him.

I admit part, probably too much of my suspicions of Grey, were because of his playstyle. Kind of crude, inflammatory, getting into long feuds with several players. Maybe that is just his meta, but in this game, maybe he was using his playstyle to clutter the game and keep others from scum hunting.

Grey was often helpful to newbies, but IMO not overly so. Enough to make me think he was town, off and on. That's a good scum tactic to get allies and remove suspicion. Smith did that too, but IMO much moreso than needed to 'look good.' I think Grey did that, was helpful, just enough to avoid suspicion.

And, Grey is the one who pointed out Dog's townslip - a point in his towncred unless Dog is/was his scum partner. Not a popular POV, but still possible that he coached her during pregame.

Now TB comes along and doesn't do much of anything. Posts, but empty posts. Still defended by Mastina and while she claims he is posting good, scum hunting posts, I don't see any. And his slot is still defending her.

I'm not even 90% sure Grey/TB is scum, but I've been highly suspicious of the slot from early in the game and TB hasn't done anything to lessen that suspicion. His lack of meaningful posts seems like hiding to me.

And, I think having two strong wagons as we approach the end of D1 is a good idea. Let's see where players move, what they have to say. Then lynch one of the more likely suspects: Grey, Mastina, and Alisae/RC are my strongest scum leanings. And as I said earlier, the Grey/TB - Mastina alliance, her defending the slot without, from my POV, any strong reasons, is suspicious. As was Mastina's conviction of Smith, with both Grey's and RC's help.

@ Icy, who first asked about my case against Grey. I trust you obviously more than you trust me, since your conftown and I am not. I'll follow, sheep you, if need be later in the day, to Mastina or Alisae. Probably not anyone else unless someone cites really strong evidence.

FYI - I'll be online off and on today, during the day, but around 5 PM my time (Eastern Daylight), I have to go off line and may not get back before the lynch, so I'll cast my final vote late this afternoon. I might get back before 8 AM Wed, but can't be sure and it'll probably be all over by the time I get back in the morning.

[oldwino]

^ Sorry, I somehow got confused over the deadline. We still have a few days left. So I won't necessarily cast my final vote today.

[oldwino]

Good point that Grey, if scum, would have paid attention and known you were BP. He could have faked that, however. Smart scum move, act like you're not paying attention to the BP claim. But, like I said, I'm not totally convinced the slot is scum. Grey did some townie posts, and some of my scum lean is based on my dislike of his playstyle. If TB had come into the game with more scum hunting, instead of hiding (from my POV), I'd feel less like the slot is scum, but I think TB is hanging back because Grey drew so much heat and TB wanted to take the heat off, even when I was about the only one with a scum read on him and not believed by anyone else.

Is Mastina still your strongest scum read? If you've already laid it out, just refer me to the post. I'm most interested in lynching scum, not getting my own biasedscum lean lynched if he is town. My vote was on her most of D1 but I became more suspicious of Grey and RC at the end of that day, when Smith was lynched. But I just checked and she, Mastina, started what became the wagon on Smith. Then she was gone during and after the lynch, If she were scum, I think she'd really have to trust her scum buddy to secure the lynch, which means an experienced scum buddy hanging around at lynch time, either Grey (TB) or RC (Alisae). I think scum is two of these three, but for sure at least one of them is scum.

[oldwino]

Still staying on DogWatch, sorry guys. We all mostly agree that DW is scummy; the only argument here is that we might be mistaking scuminess for newb-ness. I don't like that argument, because I still think that DW's main focus is appearing town - more so than helping the town. Even newer players would have the tone of wanting to Lynch someone / help the town, but I'm really not seeing that in DW.

So you don't believe Dog's comment implying she thought scum had day chat was a townslip? But instead a plot to deceive us she is town? That's the premise most of us are buying that makes us think Dog is town. I thought almost everyone thought she was town??? Scummy, but town.

[oldwino]

You know we don't have to wait until friday

I'll try to put time into reading and re-reading today and comment on this. Today's busy in RL for me.
I mostly skip Mastina's walls because I don't believe them and think they are mostly a web of confusion and too complex logic.
Occam's razor, they are not.

[oldwino]

Gut (there's that word again) tells me there's little chance Mastina and Ulti are scumbuddies. If Mastina is scum, then she's coaching behind the scenes, and there's no way Ulti would come up with such a terrible vote (on his own scumbuddy no less) if they're conversing outside this thread.

That leaves the possibilities that Mastina is actually town and Ulti is scum, or they're both town and Ulti is barking up the wrong tree.

Gut insists Ulti just doesn't know what he's doing yet (says a lot coming from me) and sheeped a bit on those of us who did vote Mastina.

I still need to sort through the novels Mastina has posted in this thread (busy weekend, haven't been keeping up) but for right now, my vote stays on her. Not joining the Ulti wagon yet.

This is where Dog mentions possible scum coaching behind the scenes. In the next post, RC says there is no scum day chat, and in the following post Smith says Dog is probably town because of her comment about coaching behind the scenes. Later, others refer to this as Dog's 'townslip' so after that, most of us thought she was town unless well coached in pregame and I can't tell if there was any pregame opportunity or not.

@ IC - can you tell from looking at the first page if there was any opportunity for pregame chatting between scum? Looks to me like the mod didn't allow time for that, but I don't know if scum can chat while the mod is waiting for the required number of players to confirm.

[oldwino]

@ Mod/PP

- I can't tell from the D1 opening if there was any opportunity for pregame chatting between scum. Looks to me like the you didn't allow time for that, but I don't know if scum can chat while you were waiting for the required number of players to confirm. Can and will you clarify if scum had an opportunity for pregame chat and coaching? Thanks.

[oldwino]

That means scum had pre-game PT available from 8:15 Tues night until 7:05 Wed morning, 11 hours. So an experienced scum could have prepped Dog or any other scum buddy to make the 'townslip.' They surely could and would have done other planning during that time as well. So Mastina, Grey, or RC could have prepped Dog or any other scum buddy to make this or other 'townslips.'

Hey experienced players, how common is it for scum to plan 'townslips' pregame? Is it something you have done in other games or something you've thought of doing? Is it anyone's meta? Or would this be really unique ploy?

[oldwino]

@ Mod/PP

- I can't tell from the D1 opening if there was any opportunity for pregame chatting between scum. Looks to me like the you didn't allow time for that, but I don't know if scum can chat while you were waiting for the required number of players to confirm. Can and will you clarify if scum had an opportunity for pregame chat and coaching? Thanks.

Town slip.

Though in my experience, there is usually a small window of time to chat pre game. Not sure if they did have a chance or not in this game.

This isn't necessarily a town slip at all. Oldwino!scum could very well be copying my own town slip from Day 1, hoping to gain similar town reads from everyone else.

I'm not saying I think that's actually what's happening, but you can't confidently call this a town slip in my opinion.

I didn't mean it to be a townslip from me, although now I see how it could be seen that way.
I was trying to confirm how much time, if any, the scum team would have had to chat before the rest of us got into the game. Yes, that post and this post of mine are LAMIST - but I had to ask the question so we knew, all of us knew, if and how much time scum had to talk pregame.

I'm happy lynching TB (Grey), and as I've said several times, OK too lynching Mastina or Alisae. I'm asking myself, what do we learn from each of their flips, no matter which way they go? That gets complicated, of course. I have no time to do that today but expect to have time tomorrow, but lynching any of these three today is OK with me, I just won't be around to change my vote if needed until 8-9 tonight or 8-9 AM tomorrow. Still plenty of time, though.

[oldwino]

I could have easily and innocently enough jumped on Smith's wagon if I were scum. Don't know what else I can say or do to convince y'all I am town.
Mastina was my #1 read until she basically disappeared at the end of D1. I thought scum would hang around to ensure a town lynch and only RC and Grey did that. Grey seemed, and TB seems, the scummier of the two to me. I've cited my reasons several times.
And to repeat again, I'll help lynch Mastina, happier to lynch TB/Grey, either of my two scummiest reads, or RC/Alisae as my 3rd scummiest read if that's what it takes to get a lynch before the dead line.

[oldwino]

@Mod, VC please.

I am pretty sure if I vote Mastina that puts her at L1. Want to make sure, don't want to accidentally quickhammer.

[oldwino]

I could have easily and innocently enough jumped on Smith's wagon if I were scum. Don't know what else I can say or do to convince y'all I am town.
Mastina was my #1 read until she basically disappeared at the end of D1. I thought scum would hang around to ensure a town lynch and only RC and Grey did that. Grey seemed, and TB seems, the scummier of the two to me. I've cited my reasons several times.
And to repeat again, I'll help lynch Mastina, happier to lynch TB/Grey, either of my two scummiest reads, or RC/Alisae as my 3rd scummiest read if that's what it takes to get a lynch before the dead line.

But you see she didn't disappear at the end of D1 as a matter of fact she already posted that she came online right as grey hammered.

If she did log back on near the deadline, why wait that long and why not post? Lurking at the deadline? If so, just to make sure Smith got hammered - maybe she was waiting on the sidelines to hammer if no one else did.

[oldwino]

VOTE: Mastina
L1

[oldwino]

Why, if you think Mastina is town, would you intend to hammer? We have time tonight and tomorrow and, if I remember correctly, Alisae will be happy to hammer Mastina.

[oldwino]

@ Blawb - Assume, just assume, that I am town. And my 3 top scum reads are Grey/TB, Mastina, and RC/Alisae. From my POV, I learn a lot more if Alisae hammers Mastina than if you do. I know you are town. I do not know about Mastina and Alisae, so they could be a scum team. I know Mastina will not hammer or even vote for Grey/TB, and Grey/TB won't hammer Mastina. therefore they are a possible scum team. So I want to test he Mastina- Alisae pair as a possible scum team. Forcing Alisae to hammer Mastina helps, I think. If Alisae refuses, and someone else is forced to hammer and Mastina flips scum, that indicts Alisae. Right?

[oldwino]

I really don't like where my top two scum reads are in relationship to this wagon. I hope I'm wrong and mastina is scum, but I doubt it.

Intent to hammer.

Going after oldwino and DogWatch tomorrow, right guys? That was the deal...

TB/Wino/Dog for me tomorrow right now, but out of the three I'd rather have TB. Have to see if TB actually posts anything good, or the flip/nk tells us anything fun, before I know where I'm going to push the most tomorrow.

Chris, if TB is your top scum read, why didn't you join that wagon and take him to L1?

[oldwino]

Write less, say more.

[oldwino]

@ Mastina, Your past few posts have been some of your best. But your style of not posting for long periods of time, then posting walls, often using complex logic that I cannot follow, that I'm sure others cannot follow, doesn't help town. Those posts clutter the game and make you look scummy, to me anyway, and apparently to others. Scum will not have lynched you alone. There are or will be at least 3 townies on your wagon. I haven't been deceived by others. You have seemed scummy to me from D1 with your evasiveness etc. I went off your wagon for a while, but had to come back because we weren't getting traction anywhere else and had to move the game along. I wish you had joined TB's wagon when you had the chance. I think we'd be lynching him instead of you.

I do appreciate your final reads on others and will take that all into account on D3 as best as I can.

[oldwino]

Blawb or Alisae, we need your vote on Mastina. Time is running out.

[oldwino]

I think one, if not both of you, are scum and have thought so since the initial RC/Grey feud - distancing, etc. then Grey and RC both replacing out after a night of feuding in the scum PT. Or, at least, one of you are scum paired with a newbie who is hanging back, hiding. But I am not ready to vote, still need to reread and ISO, look at vote trends etc. And this weekend, lots of RLI and I need to get caught up in two games. And still deal with some serious RLI today and into the next week. So you two just keep on posting and give me and other something to think about.

TB, I see nothing of value, nothing scum hunting, in the very few posts you have made. And although we needed a hammer at the end of D2, you had declared Mastina town so your hammer didn't help sort out scum, if not you. Tended to make me continue to think you are scum. But hey, it's been a weird weekend and I'm a little under the vodka right now. Might as well toss a die, which is the way I am thinking of playing my next game.

[oldwino]

Bwelow is my post from a few real days ago, before the last lynch. I hypothesized an Alisae lynch (but Mastina's lynch works with the same logic) who flipped town. My scenario parallels TB's post today about maybe a no lynch is better than a mislynch. What do others think? If we can 90% identify scum today, yes lynch scum. But if we are unsure, does a no lynch improve our odds of surviving another day and a better chance of lynching scum on D4? Since I don't trust TB (Grey), maybe this logic sucks but I wondered about it previously, when I was sure Grey/Tb was scum. Now, maybe TB is town since this seems like a town-friendly idea. But hey, I'm naive here.

I've tried to figure out the logic of how many mislynches, or no lynches, we can afford and still possibly win. But this is the first time I've tried to figure this out and I haven't seen any explanations of it anywhere else. SO, anyone and everyone, please comment on this logic. This is all predicated on Dark, Icy, and me being town, which from my POV is the only way I can look at it now, even though I mostly trust Dog to be town and know some of you don't trust me and scum will want to discredit me if this logic is correct.

D2 we lynch Alisae (or anyone, I think) who flips town. 7 left, 5 and 2.
N2 scum kills Dark (or Icy, doesn't matter). 6 left, 4 and 2

D3 if we mislynch, no matter whom, Grey most likely will be the vote, and he flips town, 5 will be left, 3 T and 2S. Game over because
N3 scum kills any other townie and there are only 4 left, 2T and 2S and no way for town to lynch on D4 so game over after the D3 mislynch.

BUT if we follow this scenario and instead of lynching anyone on D3, with 6 left, and vote NO LYNCH, which the 4 remaining townies can do, then we are still at 4 and 2 going into N4.
N4 scum kills a townie, 5 left, 3T and 2S.

On D5 we still have a chance to lynch scum and win. Right?

If so, if my logic is correct, I say we lynch Alisae today (or anyone except Icy, Dark, or me, really) and then vote No Lynch on D3. All 4 townies vote No Lynch, the two scum are exposed. Of course, I think, one scum could vote NL and one townie would be left not voting along with the other scum and we're guessing on D5, but isn't that better than two mislynches? Or is my logic wrong?

Of course if we are right about Alisae, we're in better shape. And if Icy didn't lose her BP on N1, we're in better shape. And if Dark tracks the scum killer and doesn't get killed himself N2, we're in better shape.

What do you all think?

[oldwino]

Hey, I'm back tonight but not for long. I hope I can make time tomorrow to really get back into the game but RL is unpredictable right now. I still mostly suspect TB (Grey) and Alisae, although I townread RC (Alisae's slot)
D1 until the end when she was around making sure Smith was lynched. I'm a little suspicious of Chris, but that may be because he is suspicious of me. Mostly, I like his logic, but now I'm reading Mastina's logic with a new perspective.

Since I helped mislynch Mastina and was very critical of her play, I'll give her my 'proxy vote' in memory of her play and her mislynch. Sheep her after death. And as I read her last post, she was convinced the scum team is Alisae and Chris, Alisae moreso even than Chris. So, for now, I'm close to voting Alisae based partly on my own suspicions but even moreso as a proxy vote for Mastina. But I will wait until tomorrow and my head is clear and I am sure I'm not unwittingly taking Ali to L1 or worse. But TB and Chris are still on my radar right there behind Alisae.

So, until tomorrow . . .

[oldwino]

Icy, are you saying you're 80% on Chris being scum?

Yes

Interesting. You said you've been fairly sure I was town all of yesterday, why the switch?

For me sense the end of day one it has been Alisae, or Mastina. I agree with you on not understanding Mastinas play as town, but I am now forced to go back and read her posts as genuine town.

Icy, I very much want to know what you're thinking, if you've had time to reread Mastina.

[oldwino]

@oldwino Think about it this way.

We were all pretty sure the Day 2 lynch would be either mastina or ThinkBig. No one else was in any real danger. Scum knew that. As the day progressed they were able to split up and anchor both wagons. Chris parked on mastina and continued attacking her, hoping the wagon would build. Meanwhile, Alisae remained mostly on the ThinkBig wagon (they were briefly together on mastina) but never hammered. This way, they were able to maintain pressure on both wagons, and when the victim flipped, at least one of their names would be in the clear. Simple, but effective in such a small game.

Take another look at how Alisae threatens the hammer but gives mastina last minute mercy. Do you think that's a little fishy in light of what we know now?

Yes, I think Alisae avoiding dropping the hammer is suspicious, especially since he said at one point, I think, he'd come back and do it. I was disappointed TB hammered because I wanted to see if Ali would really do it.

Mastina was convinced the scum team was Alisae and Chris. I'm mostly leaning Alisae because he avoided the Mastina lynch, and because of his 'flailing' posts today, back and forth with TB which has not been productive, just finger-pointing. I'm still wondering if Alisae and TB are a team, bussing each other so heavily, which take me back to my old suspicion of RC and Grey as the scum team.

At this point, I'd vote Alisae if Icy agrees, since he is the ONLY player besides myself I am confident in, because of his conftown, level head, and logic. I'm not sure how SOON I would vote Ali to L1 or hammer, but that's my lean right now.

Maybe there's no reason to wait. What are we going to learn if we wait a few days, or a week? Is anyone going to confess? Ha! Maybe get it over with and go on to another game.

[oldwino]

@ Icy, OK, I agree Alisae is top scum read. Really go back and forth between TB and Chris with Dog as an outside scum possibility. I thought Dog was paired with Mastina (hahaha) so Mastina's flip makes Dog lean town for me, but not totally. Hey, it's not much better than a coin toss. I might play my next game with a pair of dice and see what happens. I'll try hard to check back later in the day - company coming late afternoon with lots of prep to do, but we're not in a hurry.

[oldwino]

I'm not so confident in Grey/TB being town, and Mastina's reads were not very good on D1, but I trust her final analysis as much as I can trust anyone's. My sheeping of Icy is because I know he is town and his analysis all the way through was logical etc. I'll go along with an Alisae lynch but am not in any rush and may not be able to get back on again today.

[oldwino]

Well, I got one of you at least. I was DAMN SURE of my last few posts. Like, I'd never felt that level of clarity in a game. Oh well, this is my last game anyway.

For the record, my town slip early on was completely manufactured. I laughed every time someone brought it up, especially those who said I couldn't have come up with it on my own!

I really enjoyed playing with you, Dog. You were respectful of others even when you disagreed with them. Lots of respect for your game and you!!! Excellent town slip. Who says newbies can't play well! You played better than most of the experienced players. Would love to play with you again. Chin up.

[oldwino]

As a mod, I'd prefer people not do it, but mainly just because it's generally a bad habit to be in, and you never know when someone will accidentally post BEFORE the game actually ends, which is obviously very very bad.

Reading endgame comments before you posted the end of the game really confused me.
Smith, I have great respect for your modding and play.
Thanks for the compliment, it means a lot.

[oldwino]

I guess the MVP award for this game has to go to

mastina

. On a day 2 where the scum team was essentially outing themselves repeatedly, mastina nevertheless did everything she could to ensure that the actual wagons shifted to and stayed on town. It's difficult to carry a scum team that hard, but she was up to the task. She's apparently one of the site's better scum players and proved it again here.

PS On a non-sarcastic note I'd like to apologize to the newbies who were actually trying (oldwino's day 2 efforts were near heroic given how awful the day was overall). Unfortunately, really terrible townies who think they know what they're doing is something you'll see a lot of. Sometimes you'll get to see then when you're scum though so at least that's helpful. Still, USUALLY when you roll town you'll have a better team than you had this game. And I apologize for my part in not really doing enough on day 1 to avoid the lynch (even though I still think it was pretty ridiculous).

You were so town. Grey was so scum. Oh well. I've been right about half the time in my first two games, which seems to be pretty good. Now, I just have to stick to my POV and not be swayed by experienced players who are wrong.

[oldwino]

I thought you played well, and well enough to win a pretty decent chunk of the time.

I also think that I shouldn't have made my twilight comments at all, because they were just obnoxious instead of helpful.

I will say that my dead chat was probably a decent mix of salt/anger and reasonably useful commentary and theory. Probably not a terrible way to blow an hour or so fwiw, especially if you can filter out the anger part.

Didn't read it yet. Too busy with RL and - I won't talk about other games.

[oldwino]

oldwino it gets harder when you aren't in newbies.
Trust me on this.

Yeah, that's why I'm trying another newbie before I get into 'real' games. Looking forward to a normal though. Soon.

[oldwino]

I really enjoyed playing with you, Dog. You were respectful of others even when you disagreed with them. Lots of respect for your game and you!!! Excellent town slip. Who says newbies can't play well! You played better than most of the experienced players. Would love to play with you again. Chin up.

I agree with this. You also played well and commend you for being respectful throughout the game. Hope to see you in a future game.

Thanks TB. Scum.

[oldwino]

oldwino it gets harder when you aren't in newbies.
Trust me on this.

Yeah, that's why I'm trying another newbie before I get into 'real' games. Looking forward to a normal though. Soon.

You might also try a micro open if you're looking to take small steps forward.
PE: lolmindmeld

I hope that's an appropriate emoticon???? I am so NEW.

[oldwino]

Yeah, that's why I'm trying another newbie before I get into 'real' games. Looking forward to a normal though. Soon.

If you are interested, I am in the mod queue for micro games and will be moderating a variant on Matrix6. I'd love for you to join.

Will check it out, thanks.

[oldwino]

@oldwino Thanks for the kind words. I hope you continue to play here. Your personality is much needed on these boards; most people here can't be quite so calm and respectful, and I think you offer positivity and maturity most of these players sorely lack. Maybe you're a little TOO cautious and casual in your play, but I don't really blame you for that. I might end up playing a little more actually; maybe see you around.

@alisae Really sorry for reading you so badly.

@Grey You owe me a signature quote! I didn't forget!

@mastina I'd be happy to read your thoughts on the game. I tried to carry your torch after I helped mislynch you, but it just wasn't enough. Sorry for getting you so wrong.

BTW - Love your avatars. Yes, I'm a dirty old man. I mean 'old wino.'