Mini Normal 2187: PIFiMDM [game over!]

[Dannflor]

good luck y'all

[northsidegal]

how funny would it be if you survived another day because scum tries to shoot the vig instead

[Datisi]

Vote count 3.final

with 7 votes in play, it took 4 to make a decision. day 3 ended.

execution

Elements [4]:

Lunar Martian, Kazyan,

Dannflor

, northsidegal

[HAMMER]

2ndchosen1 [2]:

unwnd, Elements

Not voting [1]:

2ndchosen1

mod notes

~ yeet

flavour

[Datisi]

day three ends

Elements

has been executed Day 3. They were a

Vanilla Townie

.

The sun sets, it is now Night 3. Sunrise in

(expired on 2021-01-24 02:50:00)

.

note: it's currently almost 3am in my timezone, and i happen to be awake because i am not smart. it's decently likely that i will not be awake at the deadline in two days, so daystart could be late.

[Datisi]

day four starts

northsidegal

has been killed Night 3. She was a

Vanilla Townie

.

The sun rises. It is now Day 4.

[Datisi]

Vote count 4.00

with 5 votes in play, it takes 3 to make a decision. day 4 ends in (expired on 2021-02-01 03:00:00).

execution

Not voting [5]:

unwnd, 2ndchosen1,

Dannflor

, Lunar Martian, Kazyan

mod notes

~ yeet

flavour

[Kazyan]

NSG instead of Dann? Really?

...You know what, It actually doesn't change my opinion. I did some looking and thinking over the night. We need to jettison Lunar.

Seriously, What Was That Day 3 Play?

Lunar got a ton of early towncred in Day 1 for his playstyle of making frequent attacks. On Day 1, that's what you're supposed to do because you have nothing to go on as town, and all you have is scummy wording and votes to play with. But that's only good play on Day 1. The problem is that 1) he has continued to do this well past its expiration date, 2) his attacks don't really go anywhere, to the point where they're not indicative of reads anymore, and 3) his mental process has gradually disappeared. I've referred to this as "pecking" in a previous post.

For examples, Lunar pecks in 1137, 1139 and 1140...but then he vote Elements for some reason, instead of the person he was focused on. He then pecks me in 1161, despite trying to assert earlier that NSG is scum while also voting Elements. Pecks 2ndchosen1 in 1209, which goes nowhere. Pecks me again in 1235, drops it, and eventually does a verbal shrug in 1377 and 1378. That's a lot of numbers, but here's the jist: he voted Elements and stayed comfortably on that wagon for all of Day 3, but didn't peck at a single Elements post despite an abundance of them to work with. So...did he really think Elements is scum? No. I say he was just keeping up appearances while waiting for the miselim that almost everyone agreed on.

Process of Elimination

There are only three pairings left

These pairings are Lunar/unwnd, Lunar/2nd, and unwnd/2nd. The latter is very unlikely to me, because:

2ndchosen1 is

probably

not scum...

This is for reasons that I outline in 1224, with the addition of the Hayker self-hammer I mentioned in 1302.

...and if he is, then unwnd is

probably

not his partner.

Go back and read that whole exchange between unwnd and 2ndchosen1 on Day 3. They are playing tag and asking each other for clarity over and over again. There's no good reason for scum partners to do that--it accomplishes nothing. It doesn't convince the town that they have reads, nor does it help steer the conversation away from a 2ndchosen1 vote. A point of comparison, in Mini Normal 2183, unwnd has a long conversation with their scum partner Flavor Leaf--and in this conversaiton, unwnd is not only more engaged, but makes more attacks and accusations.

Therefore, the only remaining scum pairings contain Lunar

Lunar/unwnd is the likely pairing. Lunar/2nd is the unlikely one. Either way, Lunar is scum.

[Dannflor]

HahahHHhHhHhaahahahahahahahahahahahaahahahahahahahahahagaga

[Dannflor]

Obviously no one vote yet

[Kazyan]

Yeah, obviously. Quickhammers and all.

How sure are we that there are two mafia members left, though? If there's only one, then it would make some degree of sense for them to keep hunting for the vig instead of just shooting Dann and getting it over with, and it makes no sense for a two-remaining-mafia to WIFOM that when they're so close to their win condition.

[Kazyan]

Dang, I guess this

does

affect my opinion, because if there's only one Mafia member, then everything in the Process of Elimination half of my post doesn't apply.

[Kazyan]

I worked on that post, you know

Had a draft saved in my PMs with a section on NSG and everything

[Dannflor]

I’m playing dnd at the moment but I’ll answer that when I’m done

[2ndchosen1]

Obviously no one vote yet

I'm on the case.

[2ndchosen1]

Yeah, obviously. Quickhammers and all.

How sure are we that there are two mafia members left, though? If there's only one, then it would make some degree of sense for them to keep hunting for the vig instead of just shooting Dann and getting it over with, and it makes no sense for a two-remaining-mafia to WIFOM that when they're so close to their win condition.

First, I've looked through recent mini normals and am finding basically all have 3 mafia.

[Dannflor]

10:3 is pretty standard

given the town roles we know are in the game

3 is pretty much a given

[2ndchosen1]

How're you feeling on reads rn Dann? I'm going to be looking through others and probably do a small wall later tonight.

[Lunar Martian]

How're you feeling on reads rn Dann? I'm going to be looking through others and probably do a small wall later tonight.

I feel like maybe you should do your wall before Dann gives you the answers.

[Dannflor]

Yeah, I have thoughts but I'm gonna hold back for everyone else to go first if you don't mind

[unwnd]

I'm confused about night results honestly

And I've just been busy with moving and feel very isolated from mafia mindset right now

[Dannflor]

I'm rather embarrassed to still be alive

[Kazyan]

I'm rather embarrassed to still be alive

Mood but like not in Mafia

[Lunar Martian]

I'm rather embarrassed to still be alive

Are you Mafia? How do you explain not getting nightkilled?

[Dannflor]

I'm bad at this game

[Kazyan]

The town is getting walloped. We're all bad, here.