Mini 2297 | Conception | Postgame
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Hugir Goon
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Ego.
GIF head won’t really be here until end of tomorrow due to moving shenanigans.-
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Hugir Goon
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That miller is a town claim. If he claimed a regular miller I would’ve been more skeptical.In post 95, Feysal wrote: Meanwhile, we have all pretty much ignored Abnegation claiming miller. Not sure what to make of it, except that claiming it right at the start is generally the right play. This is multiball though, and her claim could make either scum team suspect her of belonging to the other, potentially exposing her to nightkills. Leaving this alone for now.
So IC + miller claim means two locktowns for me.
Maybe finally I’ll have an easy game for once?
I’d say that Rau or whatever is town too but I guess since this is multiball or something it really technically makes sense for non-benediction-
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Hugir Goon
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Oh mb I read it wrong-
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Hugir Goon
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Y’all rule #1 of multiball is that we next expect non-town to be beneficial.-
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Hugir Goon
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Idk about you but the rest sounds about rightIn post 204, furtiveglance wrote: If Abnegation is town as well, that could be me, Rautherdir, Abnegation and Hell Froze Over in the Early Towncore-
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Hugir Goon
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@ActionDan I reeeeeeeally don’t think checker would be a scum role.-
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Hugir Goon
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Also how he went about his claim etc-
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Hugir Goon
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With that said, I’m still not really around until tomorrow so please don’t end the day too quickly.-
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Hugir Goon
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Is it bad if I decide to base my read on something that I’ve seen 10 years ago?-
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Hugir Goon
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Because I’m about to.-
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Hugir Goon
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How many correct townreads do I need D1 to just lollim the rest?
13p, assuming 9:2:2
Mislim D1 8:2:2 | 2 nightkills on town 6:2:2
Mislim D2 5:2:2 | 2 nightkills on town 3:2:2
Wow shit I only have 1 mislim until we get potentially ducked over.
So I need 8 correct reads ugh why did I join a multiball :^)-
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Hugir Goon
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In post 361, Hugir wrote: Is it bad if I decide to base my read on something that I’ve seen 10 years ago?
Still doing this though because I feel good about this.In post 362, Hugir wrote: Because I’m about to.
I’m actually not gonna say who this is, because I feel like if I say the name and why they might feel kinda insulted when I meant no insult at all, so I’ll just slide the name in there when I eventually make the list-
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Hugir Goon
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With that said
This is actually kinda oof. Note to self to check the beginning of day tomorrow when my brain isn’t mush and it’s not past midnightThe theory was meant to provoke discussion and get us out of RVS. I don't actually believe it to be the case, and without night actions or a flip to show otherwise I will be treating the game as having two antagonistic factions against town.-
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Hugir Goon
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Quick ISO suggests Feysal is also town I think-
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Hugir Goon
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Well it wasn’t really quick because their posts were kinda long but hey-
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Hugir Goon
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Nobody lies on their first post right
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Hugir Goon
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Wow I know I wasn’t really here for last few days due to moving but ppl in this game has either too many posts or too little posts.
I have 4.5 townreads including the IC so far.
The .5 may be rounded up or down depends on what I see probably in next few posts-
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Hugir Goon
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btw all posts have been GIF so far
I kinda remember seeing the signing rule but I kinda forgot to-
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Hugir Goon
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Hugir Goon
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I have AD as town but don’t tell him-
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Hugir Goon
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AD is in this game so correct threadIn post 379, Hell Froze Over wrote:
Uh, wrong thread?In post 378, Hugir wrote: I have AD as town but don’t tell him
~b-
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Hugir Goon
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I wish my other head is here lolIn post 382, Hell Froze Over wrote: Sounded like a thing you wanted to tell to the other head.
AD is hearing you here
I think hebi is still busy-
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Hugir Goon
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Speaking of a devilIn post 384, GuyInFreezer wrote:
Don’t worry the only slip I ever do in mafia game is altslipIn post 382, Hell Froze Over wrote: Sounded like a thing you wanted to tell to the other head.
AD is hearing you here-
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Hugir Goon
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I think I named them all over the course actuallyIn post 400, Abnegation wrote:
if you have townreads, can you share them?In post 373, Hugir wrote: Wow I know I wasn’t really here for last few days due to moving but ppl in this game has either too many posts or too little posts.
I have 4.5 townreads including the IC so far.
The .5 may be rounded up or down depends on what I see probably in next few posts
Frozen - is IC
Alianna alt - miller, I think it’s truthful and is town role
ActionDan - “10 years old meta”
Feysal - Just feels town
Rauth - my 0.5 townread-
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Hugir Goon
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Although to be honest I’m really just memeing with 10 years old meta thing (although there’s a tiny bit of truth behind it)
I just think he’s town here. I have this tendency to townread effort but I think I’m actually right here-
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Hugir Goon
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I’ll place my vote later tonight when there is less than 2 days deadline left
Tbh my long term moving is kinda destroying me but I didn’t realize we have short deadline so I guess I gotta do better than having rounded-up-to-5 townreads two of them basically being confirmed towns-
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Hugir Goon
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None of the wagons rn I’m not really interested atm.
I still think Rau is town because I really don’t think checker is a role given to scum. Enchant I’m aware is prone to get wagoned. Ice I think last time I ISO’d him I didn’t really find him scummy.
I’ll finally have desktop access tonight so we’ll see if I can whip up something.-
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Hugir Goon
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Why
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Hugir Goon
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Don’t like any of the current wagons?-
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Hugir Goon
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MoiIn post 436, GuyInFreezer wrote: I'm finally having a quick chance to read the game and not on phone.
And I think I'm beginning to see why Ice was being wagoned.
Page 2 was awkward, and
is also awkward when he seemed engaged on that mechanical discussion.In post 130, IceDragon70 wrote: Guys we've had a fuckton of mechanical discussion but barely any scumhunting.
I'm gonna VOTE: ActionDan because I like their ISO the least.
With that said, I'm trying to focus on The Keeper posts but I played like 5 games of Binding of Isaac and the furthest I've reached was Mom's heart so I have no idea what he's referencing most of the time lol.-
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Hugir Goon
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I think in a game like this where there are only few people talking and the rest silent, there tends to be like 1 active scum and rest non-active. But that's normal games so idk how things tend to be in multiball.-
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Hugir Goon
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Hugir Goon
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This... is actually a massive towntell, right?In post 194, BlueSnakelet wrote: Wait, this has already started?
@Narration, I did not receive a daystart PM.
Wait a sec while I read the thread...
I think if Blue is scum he'd have, like, he'd know the day started by either scum PT locking or his buddy telling him, right?-
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Hugir Goon
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Ok yeah I think that's a townslip.
I'm adding Blue to townpile.-
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Hugir Goon
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And it's confirmed by mod too soIn post 218, Narration wrote:Oops. I somehow accidentally added a space between Blue and Snakelet. Sorry about that.-
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Hugir Goon
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In post 349, GoldfishFromTheMoon wrote: I have game related thoughts but I need to do some reading tonight, expect me to come back with something-
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Hugir Goon
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Is this one of those games where I just vote from lurkers near end of Day 1-
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Hugir Goon
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Hey guys I grabbed a really cute avatar uwu I hope you liek it-
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Hugir Goon
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Can it be technically faked? Of course.
Is it likely that it is faked? I think not.-
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Hugir Goon
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Like what is the chance Blue goes "Oh I'm scum and I didn't receive a daystart PM so even though I know that the game started already I'm gonna use that and pray that someone picks it up and calls it town"
Occam's razor baby I'm calling that shit town-
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Hugir Goon
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Occam's razor, also known as the principle of parsimony, is a philosophical principle that suggests that among competing hypotheses or explanations, the simplest one should be preferred until proven otherwise. It was formulated by the medieval philosopher and theologian William of Ockham, and it is often used as a guiding principle in scientific and philosophical reasoning. The idea is that unnecessary complexity should be avoided in favor of simpler explanations that require fewer assumptions, and that the simplest explanation is more likely to be true. However, it is important to note that Occam's razor is not a strict rule or a guarantee of truth, but rather a heuristic or a tool for evaluating and comparing different explanations or hypotheses. It is also important to consider the context and the specific evidence and reasoning supporting each hypothesis before applying Occam's razor. So, in essence, Occam's razor is a principle that suggests simpler explanations are more likely to be true, but it is not an absolute rule and should be used with critical thinking and careful evaluation of evidence. Overall, Occam's razor encourages simplicity and parsimony in reasoning and hypothesis testing. It is commonly summarized as "the simplest explanation is usually the best." However, it is important to note that simplicity alone is not always a guarantee of truth and other factors such as evidence, logic, and context should also be considered in evaluating explanations. Overall, Occam's razor is a useful tool in scientific and philosophical reasoning, but it is not an infallible principle and should be used with critical thinking and consideration of relevant evidence. So, in summary, Occam's razor is a principle that suggests simpler explanations are more likely to be true, but it is not a strict rule and should be used in conjunction with critical thinking and careful evaluation of evidence. Ultimately, the validity and utility of Occam's razor depend on its application in specific contexts and the strength of evidence supporting different explanations or hypotheses. Overall, Occam's razor is a heuristic principle that can guide reasoning and hypothesis testing, but it should be used judiciously and in conjunction with other critical thinking skills. The principle of Occam's razor is often used in science, philosophy, and other fields to guide reasoning and hypothesis testing. However, it is important to remember that it is not an absolute rule, but rather a heuristic or a tool for evaluating and comparing different explanations or hypotheses. It should be used in conjunction with other critical thinking skills, such as evaluating evidence, logic, and context, to arrive at a more comprehensive and reliable conclusion. In summary, Occam's razor is a philosophical principle that suggests simpler explanations are more likely to be true, but it is not a guarantee of truth and should be used with critical thinking and careful evaluation of evidence. Overall, Occam's razor is a useful tool in reasoning and hypothesis testing, but it should be used judiciously and in conjunction with other critical thinking skills. So, while Occam's razor is a useful principle for guiding reasoning and hypothesis testing, it is not an absolute rule and should be used in conjunction with other critical thinking skills to arrive at a more reliable conclusion. Overall, Occam's razor is a valuable tool in scientific and philosophical reasoning, but it should be used with critical thinking and careful evaluation of evidence to arrive at the most plausible and reliable explanation. Overall, Occam's razor is a heuristic principle that can guide reasoning and hypothesis testing, but it should be used judiciously and in conjunction with other critical thinking skills to arrive at a more comprehensive and reliable conclusion. In summary, Occam's razor is a philosophical principle that suggests simpler explanations are more likely to be true, but it is not a guarantee of truth and should be used with critical thinking and careful evaluation of evidence.-
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Hugir Goon
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It’s not OGI if mod confirmed it in thread that Blue didn’t get a daystart PMIn post 468, furtiveglance wrote: This daystart PM stuff looks a bit OGI to me-
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Hugir Goon
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Eh you’re allowed to use stuff like those to base your reads. It’s as relevant as using site wide activity level to determine if someone is active lurking. It’s just that you can’t just publicly say those out loud a lot of times because you don’t want to test the lines of the mentioning ongoing games rule.In post 475, furtiveglance wrote:
No I mean reading alignment into it is a bit OGI because it uses something that shouldn't really be relevant to our reads.In post 473, Hugir wrote:
It’s not OGI if mod confirmed it in thread that Blue didn’t get a daystart PMIn post 468, furtiveglance wrote: This daystart PM stuff looks a bit OGI to me-
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Hugir Goon
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With that said if it really comes down to Rau vs Ice for wagon I’m probably choosing Ice.
Rau’s plays look kinda exquisite(?) but if he is good at scum as someone mentioned (I forgot who) I don’t think this kind of stuff is a play he makes as scum period.-
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Hugir Goon
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Although yes the jab-and-retreat our IC has mentioned does catch me off guard time to time as well-
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Hugir Goon
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In post 456, Narration wrote:Replacing KawaiiKame
If they come back before a replacement is found, they may keep the slot.@Mod: Are we getting a deadline extension for this?-
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Hugir Goon
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@Aisa
P2 looked forced and the second part also looked kinda looked forced because he’ve been indulged with mech speak quite deeply and all of the sudden made that post like he hasn’t been doing such.
With that said though
@Mod: this (only) active head is in V/LA until Friday-
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Hugir Goon
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Kawaii and I have been going back and forth on our games in how inactive we can be, assuming due to outside life.In post 676, Feysal wrote:
All I can say is that I agree about the lurking being meaningless. Also, KawaiiKame is still new, having joined the site less than two months ago, and that makes their play harder to read. Newbies make newbie mistakes, but even so, I feel good about this.In post 662, Aisa wrote: I guess I'm wondering - does anyone here have any familiarity with Kawaii? Is their tone their usual town tone? Is this too easy? What alignment is everyone else? I don't really have a feel for this game so I'm not really aching to flashwagon Kawaii right this very second. But the people on the wagon have points.
By the way, when I first mentioned switching to KawaiiKame, it was based on nothing more than the off chance that your predecessor had gotten demoralized and replaced out because of their partner. Why I picked them over Goldfish was because they came back and continued to be useless. Given how few people were actively posting, I was fine with getting rid of a lurker, while a replacement could still redeem Goldfish's slot.
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Hugir Goon
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Kawaii and I have been going back and forth on our games in how inactive we can be, assuming due to outside life.In post 676, Feysal wrote:
All I can say is that I agree about the lurking being meaningless. Also, KawaiiKame is still new, having joined the site less than two months ago, and that makes their play harder to read. Newbies make newbie mistakes, but even so, I feel good about this.In post 662, Aisa wrote: I guess I'm wondering - does anyone here have any familiarity with Kawaii? Is their tone their usual town tone? Is this too easy? What alignment is everyone else? I don't really have a feel for this game so I'm not really aching to flashwagon Kawaii right this very second. But the people on the wagon have points.
By the way, when I first mentioned switching to KawaiiKame, it was based on nothing more than the off chance that your predecessor had gotten demoralized and replaced out because of their partner. Why I picked them over Goldfish was because they came back and continued to be useless. Given how few people were actively posting, I was fine with getting rid of a lurker, while a replacement could still redeem Goldfish's slot.
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Hugir Goon
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I hate this post so much. Reads like scum pointing town in a direction.In post 715, IceDragon70 wrote:In post 635, Hell Froze Over wrote:
Kawaii did not want this lim. I'm actually fairly confident that they would have preferred a nolim to it.
This makes no sense from a red, especially if it's true that they can't crosskill directly. This also makes little sense from blue; it's also an unfortunate stretegy for green, but at least it would make some sense.
I just read this and it made me come up with a rather wild speculation.
Assuming it's true scum can't crosskill directly, but still have a way to get the other scum killed (per the phrasing Rauth used), it's possible that each scumteam has a publishing cop on the other scumteam.
So basically my specuation is that Malediction can check if a player is Benediction, and post that info publicly.
If that's the case and they used it on The Keeper, then The Keeper would be mechanically confirmed not scum.
Of course it's just wild speculation so they are not actually confirmed, but I am just bringing this up as a possibility.-
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Hugir Goon
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We should likely wait for kawaii though, I do agree with that vibe. I need to consult with my other head a bit.-
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Hugir Goon
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Sorry, I'm trying to say that they're trying to pull town toward scumreading cop claims preemptively.In post 806, Abnegation wrote: "a direction" as in they're scum with keeper trying to get them confirmed? hoping town would think something like i suggested in 717 and trying to draw out a roleblocker? can you be a little more specific?-
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Hugir Goon
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I think I agree with this analysis though, even if Kawaii site flanked in general.In post 801, ActionDan wrote:In post 721, Aisa wrote: My reads on Enchant and furtive are mostly based on vibes. I don't think I'd find either an easy read if I hadn't played with them before. But I have played with them, and they just happen to pop out to me this game. I will now attempt to explain the vibes but the key thing to know is that they're not completely logically explainable, they're gut reads.In post 780, Aisa wrote: Tonight's Tinfoil is that I'm suddenly wondering if I should take my furtive townread away D:
Congratulations! You've discovered why "vibes" (uggg) alone don't work. Good that you rescinded the furtive read as 737 was rather contrived, even you must have felt that when writing that out right?In post 781, Aisa wrote: "Why" idk I just ISOed him again and everything suddenly looks scummy, please help D: D:
I think the basis for the Enchant read is way better in 721, though I am not fully onboard until more time as passed. I have played with him too as scum and it became rather obvious he was and while it wasn't exactly quantifiable there was definitely a reason why that I will not explain. Caveat I haven't been in an extended game with him as town.
I'll revaluate my Hugir read and see if it holds up.
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I don't like 715. Aside from a rather major flaw in the logic, there's no connection whatsoever between 635 and the speculation in 715. Thus it was said to be said with some sort of purposeful intent.
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About Kawaii. They're green scum. And they've been green scum 100% since the Rauth flip. I was looking a bit to see what everyelse's reaction today would be but no one really did any haw-hemming
I just don't see the point in rushing the day through yet.-
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Hugir Goon
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Are you actually scumreading abnegation or is this just a frustration vote?
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Hugir Goon
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I think you’re town anyway regardless of the potential bodyguardingIn post 905, Abnegation wrote:ty aisa!
idk if you actually took a bullet for me but i'm half clear if you did.-
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Hugir Goon
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ngl I wasn’t really here at all for most of the D2.
I’m gonna go look at how Kawaii wagon was built.-
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Hugir Goon
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I personally don’t want massclaim yet but if majority agrees I’ll comply.
Also re: wagon red names, if there be scum in there it’s either or furtive / IceDragon I think. I remember townreading Feysal and FL replaced Blue.
Pls no rush until I get to review the wagon, which I’ll be doing tomorrow-
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Hugir Goon
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Actually now that I look at it I townread the remaining playerlist aside from furtive / ID / Enchant / The Keeper.
This is actually straight from my D1 reads. Might as well go over them soon while I look at the kawaii wagon tomorrow-
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Hugir Goon
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In post 931, furtiveglance wrote:
I thought I was finna die last night so I wanted to take Enchant down with me!In post 930, The Keeper wrote: And I would certainly want your claim now, having damned our investigative.-
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I really need to review this huhIn post 913, Hugir wrote: Actually now that I look at it I townread the remaining playerlist aside from furtive / ID / Enchant / The Keeper.
This is actually straight from my D1 reads. Might as well go over them soon while I look at the kawaii wagon tomorrow-
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Hugir Goon
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Anyway I’m sorry that happened to you Enchant
That’s all I’m going to say-
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Hugir Goon
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