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Post #8 (isolation #1) » Wed Nov 29, 2023 9:22 am
Postby Gamma Emerald »
btw I interpret the win conditions as saying that if 1 smuggler is voted out and the other fails to guess the Tomboy Daughter, town wins, is that correct?
<Embrace The Void>
“A flipped coin doesn't always land heads or tails. Sometimes it may never land at all...”
Post
Post #14 (isolation #2) » Wed Nov 29, 2023 9:37 am
Postby Gamma Emerald »
In post 10, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:
>Leash everyone in game to 2 products
>leave the third product for the Tomboy Daughter to ship
>Town individually and randomly chooses which of the 2 leashed products to ship
>Port Authority individually and randomly chooses which of the 2 leashed products to inspect
>Expected 2.5 town per product: (10 players total -2 for PRs -2 for scum -1 for D1 elimination)/2 = 2.5
>Note that if scum are eliminated D1 we move straight to their guessing game
Scenario 1: The shipment is free of tea. 2 smugglers are off shipment amongst the other (expected) 6.5 players, and scum has a 1/3.5 chance of guessing the Tomboy Daughter if we mislim on D2 from amongst the expected 6.5.
Scenario 2: The shipment contains tea.
>1 scum on the shipment means 1/3.5 players are scum on the shipment. The odds of finding the TD for scum are still 1/3.5 here (3.5 on shipment means 5.5 off, one of which is scum and one of which may be mislimmed on D2.
>2 scum on the shipment means 2/4.5 players are scum on the shipment. The odds of finding the TD for scum are the same as in scenario 1.
I think this produces good expected results without risking revealing the TD in any way
Does this account for TD not doing a shipment?
<Embrace The Void>
“A flipped coin doesn't always land heads or tails. Sometimes it may never land at all...”
Post
Post #49 (isolation #8) » Wed Nov 29, 2023 6:15 pm
Postby Gamma Emerald »
In post 46, Dunnstral wrote:
But alternatively, with no plan they could potentially see tea being sent in a shipment they were not a part of and narrow things down that way instead
Now I’m confused
What exactly are you saying here?
<Embrace The Void>
“A flipped coin doesn't always land heads or tails. Sometimes it may never land at all...”
Post
Post #52 (isolation #9) » Wed Nov 29, 2023 6:59 pm
Postby Gamma Emerald »
I see absolutely zero indication that smugglers have the ability to know anything about the shipment? I believe the PA is the only person that gets that level of info
Also, PA knows who TD is so PA can just lie
<Embrace The Void>
“A flipped coin doesn't always land heads or tails. Sometimes it may never land at all...”
In post 104, HighPrincessErinys wrote:
There's a pretty noticeable difference in our ISOs in that this one isn't posting things that are meaningless or worse.
You have a vague anti-town charge that you don't follow up on, then a few one-liners on setup spec. IMO it's not a great read.
SirCakez going "uhhh i dont understand *votes kyouko*" is glaringly obviously anti-town when she's literally in the process of basically solving the game for us. If that's "vague" to you... jeez.
Thoughts on this
@Clap
?
<Embrace The Void>
“A flipped coin doesn't always land heads or tails. Sometimes it may never land at all...”
Post
Post #138 (isolation #16) » Thu Nov 30, 2023 10:43 am
Postby Gamma Emerald »
In post 133, Celebloki wrote:
I think we just proceed at this point. Everyone should chime in with the 3x3 Kyouko made and confirm what they are Shipping. I'm shipping
Copper
I have intent to vote Kyouko, but again, I don't want people to argue tomorrow that they got confused.
I'm shipping
Copper
<Embrace The Void>
“A flipped coin doesn't always land heads or tails. Sometimes it may never land at all...”
In post 104, HighPrincessErinys wrote:
There's a pretty noticeable difference in our ISOs in that this one isn't posting things that are meaningless or worse.
You have a vague anti-town charge that you don't follow up on, then a few one-liners on setup spec. IMO it's not a great read.
SirCakez going "uhhh i dont understand *votes kyouko*" is glaringly obviously anti-town when she's literally in the process of basically solving the game for us. If that's "vague" to you... jeez.
I feel like my vote on kyouko was pretty obviously a joke and I don't like how you're twisting it into me voting her because she was solving mech
I feel like due to most of the discussion being mech related, stretches aren’t exactly scummy here since there isn’t much play to grasp in terms of standard play
<Embrace The Void>
“A flipped coin doesn't always land heads or tails. Sometimes it may never land at all...”
In post 241, Gamma Emerald wrote:
I think you should address the issue that scum!Hu Tao would likely be more self-conscious
I think that’s the biggest proponent towards not voting her
I'm starting to think maybe it's hpe over atsi. What do you think?
It’s possible but I think atsi has broader support
<Embrace The Void>
“A flipped coin doesn't always land heads or tails. Sometimes it may never land at all...”
Post
Post #268 (isolation #28) » Sun Dec 03, 2023 1:18 pm
Postby Gamma Emerald »
In post 260, Hu Tao wrote:
I'm sorry but HPE's outrage seems so fake to me. It's not that serious. The argument is basically: "You were good at scum last game, so this game since you aren't 100% clear on something the first time, you're probably scum again"
Yeag
I don’t get how it fails to reconcile your performance that game with how you’re playing here, you drew a LOT of attention by doing what you did.
<Embrace The Void>
“A flipped coin doesn't always land heads or tails. Sometimes it may never land at all...”
In post 241, Gamma Emerald wrote:
I think you should address the issue that scum!Hu Tao would likely be more self-conscious
I think that’s the biggest proponent towards not voting her
I'm starting to think maybe it's hpe over atsi. What do you think?
It’s possible
Read the full post ffs
I’m saying I think atsi is the better flip
<Embrace The Void>
“A flipped coin doesn't always land heads or tails. Sometimes it may never land at all...”
Post
Post #289 (isolation #35) » Sun Dec 03, 2023 8:42 pm
Postby Gamma Emerald »
In post 288, Roden wrote:
What do you two think of Dunn and Cakez?
I don’t feel strong suspicion on either rn but don’t feel like either is in townlock zone rn
Kiiinda feel like if 1 of them is scum, it might be Dunn. I believe the D2 rush has decent potential to work, and we can always ask the mod before trying I think? If a rules patch gets applied then it was never destined to work but if the mod allows it then the blitz play seems solid.
<Embrace The Void>
“A flipped coin doesn't always land heads or tails. Sometimes it may never land at all...”
This game is a variant of Assassins in the Palace, which is a very atypical version of Mafia and is rather polarizing, but it does have a special place in my heart! Town was able to come up with a strong mech-solve and clinch the game. Very straightforward and well done!
The image is one I had commissioned for the first iteration of the game, and I think it is fantastic.
I kinda felt bad at first that the mech solve was fominating all other content because of your thong qbout not doong mrch spec pregame
<Embrace The Void>
“A flipped coin doesn't always land heads or tails. Sometimes it may never land at all...”