Mini 2320: Smuggler's Port II [Endgame]

[atsi]

I think limming Kyouko is forced now since she claimed. Leaving a merchant claim alive would lower our odds mechanically since scum can POE the TD more easily.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

If any group of 3 is investigated and tea flips, per scenario 2b scum cannot escape. They will get to guess the TD after they are eliminated but they will be mechanically guiltied by D3 if scenario 2b is followed:

snip

Scenario 2b (Tea is found): if tea is found, we have a pool of 3 guaranteed to contain 1-2 scum. Let's assume it's one scum because it's easy to see that if there are 2 scum one will be found by D3. On D2 we choose which of the 3 to eliminate and before hammering we leash the surviving POEs to ship Linen and Copper (each ships one). Everyone else ships Wheat. The PA inspects either shipment (L/C) on N2 and if they find tea on a 1p shipment, that player is scum. If they don't find tea on a 1p shipment, the other player is scum. If they inspect a shipment that has 2 players for some reason, then the person that did not obey the leash is scum.

snip

[Celebloki]

pedit: mechanically I've shot my shot and if we don't flip tea there are better scumhunters in the lobby than me

Thing is that I presume you're widely town read at this point, so if your group is investigated and shows tea, that reduces the smuggler pool to 2 instead of 3.

That's the thing though, we kinda have to lim her now since she can be PoEed by scum. We don't want anyone else making any similar claims because we just narrow the pool. If we lim her she's not in one of the pools.

[Celebloki]

@Kyouko, would you also agree then if on D2 the shipment only contains 2 people, we lim whoever is missing and leach the remaining 2 to copper and linen and proceed?

[Celebloki]

leash*

[ssbm_Kyouko]

You can add to scenario 2b that if they inspect an empty shipment that the player that was supposed to be on that shipment is scum. The point of mentioning the 2 player shipment is in case of the second scum from off-shipment trying to jump in with the town player that remains after the D2 elimination. If someone who was originally off-shipment jumps in to linen/copper to make it a 2p shipment, just kill the player that joined in because town has no motivation to mess with the results

[ssbm_Kyouko]

@Kyouko, would you also agree then if on D2 the shipment only contains 2 people, we lim whoever is missing and leach the remaining 2 to copper and linen and proceed?

The missing player is just scum here and leashing does not matter because the game ends

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Basically, if the town PRs are not in the same group right now, and at least one scum is in the last group, we've already won (unless scum guesses the TD from amongst the 5-6 off-shipment players. 1/5 odds of guessing if one of the scum is in the last group, or 1/6 odds if both scum are paired together in a group away from the TD-PA pair

[Celebloki]

I think we just proceed at this point. Everyone should chime in with the 3x3 Kyouko made and confirm what they are Shipping. I'm shipping

Copper

I have intent to vote Kyouko, but again, I don't want people to argue tomorrow that they got confused.

[Celebloki]

I want me some non-repudiation.

[Gamma Emerald]

There's a pretty noticeable difference in our ISOs in that this one isn't posting things that are meaningless or worse.

You have a vague anti-town charge that you don't follow up on, then a few one-liners on setup spec. IMO it's not a great read.

SirCakez going "uhhh i dont understand *votes kyouko*" is glaringly obviously anti-town when she's literally in the process of basically solving the game for us. If that's "vague" to you... jeez.

Thoughts on this

@Clap

?

[Claptastik]

Thoughts on this

@Clap

?

111

[Gamma Emerald]

Sorry
Work has been kicking my ass

[Gamma Emerald]

I think we just proceed at this point. Everyone should chime in with the 3x3 Kyouko made and confirm what they are Shipping. I'm shipping

Copper

I have intent to vote Kyouko, but again, I don't want people to argue tomorrow that they got confused.

I'm shipping

Copper

[Roden]

I think we just proceed at this point. Everyone should chime in with the 3x3 Kyouko made and confirm what they are Shipping. I'm shipping

Copper

I have intent to vote Kyouko, but again, I don't want people to argue tomorrow that they got confused.

I like this plan, and I agree to ship

Wheat

.

I'd rather flip Atsi instead of Kyouko tbh.

VOTE: Atsi

[Celebloki]

We kinda have to get rid of Kyouko though (sorry Kyouko).

For the sake of argument say we lim Atsi (Kyouko takes their place on Linen) and they were not a smuggler, then D2 comes along and Copper was investigated with no tea. The smugglers now know the PA and TD are somewhere in Linen and Wheat. They know who themselves are, and they can be reasonably assured Kyouko is also not a PR. That leaves 3 people to guess the TD and PA from. They can then guess one of them as the PA, if they happen to get it right, they have a 50/50 on knowing who the TD is. If we lim Kyouko, we remove that 'known' slot and give the Smugglers worse odds to guess from.

[Claptastik]

NGL Kyouko fucked up. It would have been better to ask if any of the low activity slots wanted to claim as vanilla merchant.

[HighPrincessErinys]

NGL Kyouko fucked up. It would have been better to ask if any of the low activity slots wanted to claim as vanilla merchant.

Feel like 1 merchant out of like 6 claiming is fine.

[HighPrincessErinys]

I think we just proceed at this point. Everyone should chime in with the 3x3 Kyouko made and confirm what they are Shipping. I'm shipping

Copper

I have intent to vote Kyouko, but again, I don't want people to argue tomorrow that they got confused.

I'm shipping

Copper

Linen

on my end then.

[Claptastik]

NGL Kyouko fucked up. It would have been better to ask if any of the low activity slots wanted to claim as vanilla merchant.

Feel like 1 merchant out of like 6 claiming is fine.

Not the point.

[atsi]

I'll be shipping

Linen

tonight.

[Dunnstral]

I think this might be close enough, admittedly I joined the atsi wagon to get some reactions. If we let discussion carry on much longer it will be hard to get more info without revealing too much about possible TD-PA pairs. In saying this I reveal my hand (I'm a Merchant), but I think we kill me and make this the 3x3 - if any of these trios contains the pair of TD and PA I would prefer the investigation order to go from the TOP DOWN (L>C>W), but that will be up to the PA in the end. Obviously if I've separated the TD and PA here then the third shipment would be inspected.

Linen: HPE, atsi, Clap
Copper: Gamma, Cakes, Celebloki
Wheat: Roden, Dunn, Hu Tao


I think if we try to carry on for too long it might become apparent who could be partnered, whereas right now it seems like there are a few apparent non-pairs, and the non-pairs are useful for forming trios.

ALSO IMPORTANT: If tea is found on the shipment the morning of D2, we are guaranteed to eliminate scum using scenario 2b. We can disadvantage scum by stopping any chance they have at earning a NK if we are fast enough by speed-limming on D2. Scum have to submit their guess before EOD to get the nightkill and I think in fairness that means if an elimination is reached by majority, even if scum guesses in twilight before the flip is posted, scum would not be able to earn a NK.

The first player to join the thread on the morning of D2 should do the following: Vote one of the shipment members, and designate who should be shipping what on N2. For example, if Copper flips with tea, and Roden gets to the thread first on D2, he should, in his first post, do something like vote Gamma, leash Cakes to shipping Copper, and leash Celebloki to shipping Linen, and tell everyone else to ship Wheat. This should then be taken as law and all players should thereafter speedlim Gamma before scum have a chance to guess who the PA is. There is no way for scum to get into the thread first and abuse this - even if they tell us to speedlim town, because the scum will be caught on D3 anyways and the town player that they tell us to speedlim is guaranteed to not be either the PA or the TD, which means scum doesn't improve their chances of guessing the TD. Obviously if scum gets to thread first they'll have time to guess the PA, but if we are quick we can avoid giving them much time to consider.

VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko

Uh... I do not like this strategy. Also I don't want to eliminate you.

[Dunnstral]

I will ship

wheat

[SirCakez]

I don't think no kill is a good idea but I don't think it being brought up was necessarily scummy, just thinking through ideas

[SirCakez]

There's a pretty noticeable difference in our ISOs in that this one isn't posting things that are meaningless or worse.

You have a vague anti-town charge that you don't follow up on, then a few one-liners on setup spec. IMO it's not a great read.

SirCakez going "uhhh i dont understand *votes kyouko*" is glaringly obviously anti-town when she's literally in the process of basically solving the game for us. If that's "vague" to you... jeez.

I feel like my vote on kyouko was pretty obviously a joke and I don't like how you're twisting it into me voting her because she was solving mech