Mini 1907: Oddrole Mafia IV (Game over)

[eagerSnake]

VC 2.04

Chickadee (2) [L-3]: Desperado, GuiltyLion

Not Voting (7): TheBrie, SnarkySnowman, Creature, Almost50, Javajoe24, Chickadee, Chickadee

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Day 2 deadline in (expired on 2017-06-03 16:50:45).

[Chickadee]

If I decided to believe Chick and take Creature and Snarky both as town, while simultaneously hanging onto A50 as town, I'm left with Guilty and Massive as scum. I was leaning town on Guilty and I'm pretty null on Massive. Since there's three scum, there's at lewst one problem there.

I'm thinking A50 is town because there's little scum motive in clearing Desperado as town. Though if he were scum, he might be afraid of being outed as scum if he didn't. Because Desp could have confirmed with someone else.

If A50 is scum, he would have to clear Desperado as town, otherwise he'd be outed. There's actually a lot of motive to clear Desperado as town. He couldn't just have information like that and then say Desperado is scum. Also, if he's scum, he uses his CPR ability to kill a townie, and then scum plays it off saying "Oh, oops, not doing that again." It really only works one time, but if gives scum a step up, especially in a game so small.


While I am sorting Desperado into the town pile, there is still a slight chance that he is scum. He's yet to actually use his ability except to "teach" A50. It's highly unlikely, but if scum started with a 1-shot killing roll outside of their normal factional kill, this whole thing could be scum theater. They could both be scum, using this role as a cover for their connection. Like I said, unlikely, but not impossible.

[Creature]

Did massive claim anything?

[Almost50]

@Chicka:

No I wasn't. Please read. My post (the one you quoted and responded to) was in response to Creature's post just above it. You seem to have missed his suggestion and worked with my response instead.

@Brie:

I don't think podo would have stick out his neck that far to defend his buddy, lest SS got lynched on the spot (and he sure did look like the lynch at the time). podo said he had "mechanical" reason. I took that to be a Tracker/Follower/Watcher who saw SS visit someone who didn't die. However, Java is now crumbing Tracker/Watcher, and SS said he doesn't have a visiting ability, so podo might have been a Vanilla Cop (thus the uncertainty).

[Almost50]

Did massive claim anything?

Not to my knowledge.

@Brie/Chicka:

Yes. As scum I would have had to confirm Desp regardless. The question is why would I not kill HIM at night? I mean, if I was scum then my team has 2 kills now, so I can safely eliminate Desp to guarantee the Town doesn't have a kill of it's own.

The only reason Desp is alive is Scum are counting on him to give THEM the CPR technique, and THEN they can kill him.

I always say: If you want to catch Scum you've got to think like Scum. Put yourself in their shoes and figure out why something was/wasn't done.

[Almost50]

Also, the point about defending Chicka for Town cred is legit on the surface, but then why have I pushed SS and Creature in the past and am pushing GL/massive now? They can't be all my Scum p's so Town cred to be gained from flipping one of them. Furthermore, if we're flipping one of them then Chicka isn't flipping either, so there goes my town cred down the toilet.

Finally, if you think I'm busing (again; for Town cred), then why aren't you helping me bus my SCUM buddies? Seriously. It's still in town's best interest to lynch scum who are getting bused by their p.

[Chickadee]

Chill. Still thinking things through. I haven't voted for you.

[massive]

I was worried that A50 was scum using the CPR like a second kill but now his explanation makes sense. The CPR Instructor makes sense with a Black Goo too -- more town with ambient targetted abilities that don't overly do anything but might get gooey. Podoboq's kill looks more and more like scum playing the CPR odds as well. If scum did have two kills, it seems way more likely that one of them would have hit Desperado.

[TheBrie]

After those answers, I'd rather not go after A50. I like the way he plays and always thought of him as towny.

I do have this one problem, Podo can't have been a cop then become Goo. Since there was only 1 3P at the start of D1, he would have had to be a day cop who targetted Goo. And that doesn't make any sense. Unless he targetted goo N1 before he died. In that case he isn't a cop, because he clearly said he didn't have a cop clear on Snarky. Said it was mechanical reasons.

I hope that made some amount of sense.

Massive, what exactly do you mean by Scum playing with the CPR odds?

[Javajoe24]

I would be happy with a massive, GL, creature, or chickadee lynch. I might consider a SS lynch because post flipping goo makes me question SS from yesterday.

[Chickadee]

Someone walk me through their GL read. I see quite a few people SRing GL.

[massive]

Massive, what exactly do you mean by Scum playing with the CPR odds?

WIFOM. Like A50 said in his post when he claimed the second kill, he knew the second CPR would introduce some amount of WIFOM -- do you kill the instructor and then get zero kill when his student protects him? Or do you kill someone else in the hopes that the student protects and kills the instructor? The second avenue is more likely to result in an actual kill and more likely to result in two kills.

I think Desp is probably done handing out CPRs since we're slipping closer to a scum win AND there's possible a Goo running around.

----

I would lynch Javajoe in a heartbeat. He never explained voting me yesterday (obviously it was because it was the wagon and he was content putting me at L-1 despite me being a null read in his previous reads list) and to include me in a random list of "lynchables" today with no further exploration is pretty bad. I can't see him actually scumhunting at all. Or you can call it OMGUS.

[Desperado]

i'd vote creature if we're letting chick go again

[TheBrie]

I'm not lynching Joe. He has a verifiable claim of a tracker role and to my knowledge that's likely to be a town role.

I've got a null on GL.

[Almost50]

Chill. Still thinking things through. I haven't voted for you.

Geez, I'm not worried. I'm just trying to help you think things through. Unless you want me to keep quiet and let you figure things on your own.

[Almost50]

I do have this one problem, Podo can't have been a cop then become Goo. Since there was only 1 3P at the start of D1, he would have had to be a day cop who targetted Goo.

My working theory is he was a VANILLA Cop. A VC gets their result in the form of Vanilla/Not Vanilla. Mafia Goons and Basic Werewolves also return "Vanilla" to the VC (but not to the Neapolitan who specifically checks if the target is Vanilla TOWN).

So, according to that theory, podo checked SS on N0, and got Vanilla, so someone with not special abilities (which coincides with SS' claim to have no visiting powers). I could be wrong and podo could've been any other role, so don't take it fro granted, but that's the case then podo targeted the goo on N1 and got turned. He was targeted by the Scum NK himself on N1 too, and as kills usually resolve last then technically he was killed after he was turned.

[TheBrie]

Okay, that makes sense. I got muddled and thought you were talking about a plain cop as opposed to some variant of cop.

[GuiltyLion]

while Chicka's role could be either Town or Scum I was (and still am) TRing her

why?

like, just why

[GuiltyLion]

Good catch, Chicka.

VOTE: Creature

I think THIS is the goo guy. His play D2 is super strange.

So this is literally the "you better not die as town" game.

This was the first thing he posted in response to the opening post by the mod.

Then we talk and lay ideas and some vote/unvote people, and all he has to say is:

It must suck to be town and die when there's a black goo around.

He even was the one who had the answer to my question to the mod:

Black Goo (cult; super-rare; 4+ players): Whenever a player targets you with an action, they will join your cult as another black goo.

And he followed that up with the proposition:

I think we could make the Black Goos claim (if they have more than one) and we all target them.

This sequence of posts lead me to believe Creature is actually promoting the cult. He is neglecting everything else.

I could lynch this, or we could all agree NOT to target him tonight and try to lynch Mafia instead. What do you think?

Yeah Almost is scum. Hunting goo instead of mafia, but then the casual "I could try to lynch someone else instead" at the end for towncred. I think he's right that Creature is most likely goo but deciding to vote him here is terrible

We need to lynch mafia today. No one target Creature tonight if you have a visiting ability

[GuiltyLion]

If you have something precise to point out I'd be obliged.

Ooh me, I'll take this one!

I disagree completely with this, town doesn't have a reason to jump off a big wagon on their scumread onto a vanity wagon unless their read itself changes. I agree with boring it looks like it could be a move to hop off of a building wagon while leaving room to jump back on when it's even easier to justify the vote.

Chickadee told me she thought Creature had the worst vote on her, yet now apparently she can't remember anything he has done. She put him as a complete null in her readslist, and is throwing shade here, but she hasn't voted him once or engaged with him at all today. I get the sense she's trying to keep him vaguely scumread in hopes of lynching him on a future day, rather than trying to sort him, and I think a townie would have remembered his vote on her if she had actually thought it was scummy.

I don't think any of Chickadee's sorting has been genuine. There was never any followup on to the votes on her, and I don't have any real sense of progression from her initial readslist that she gave under pressure. Since I've last posted, Chickadee has:

-said both that she finds Desperado's claim believable but wants to lynch it (457)
-jumped on Snarky with this waffle:

I can get on this wagon. I don't know that it's the best wagon, but I can see the merit in it, and day is coming to an end fairly soon. And at the rate this game is going, it will be here before we know it.

(also she had Snarky at the bottom of her readslist, yet barely commented on him and won't commit to a real scumread here while putting him at L-1. this was particularly bad and idk how everyone missed it)
- gave a waffle nonread on podo (561)

If Chick were a mislynch, scum would be pushing this and coasting on an easy fake scumread. Really the only candidate displaying that possible behavior here to me seems to be massive (boring looks town, Desperado looks town). But then why does a massive counterwagon seem to be forming late in the day? If massive is scum and Chickadee is town, where are his partners jumping on Chick to keep massive alive?

tell me why this is town please

[GuiltyLion]

If creature is goo, then we still have no reason for Podo defending Snarky. If anyone is goo, it's got to be Snarky.

this isn't right

there was 1 goo yesterday, yet Podo was defending Snarky and said he had role related info on Snarky. So if Podo targeted Snarky n0, he couldn't have become goo because otherwise there would be 2 goo yesterday. If Podo was goo the whole time and he was just completely lying about Snarky, Snarky would still not-be-goo. And podo's play looks like town who got some kind of mostly-clear on Snarky and then targeted whoever was goo on the second night. I haven't reread his ISO yet tbh but I'm gonna go back and check to see if it makes sense that he would target Creature based on his reads.

but in any world, Snarky is mechanically conf-not-goo and probTown.

[GuiltyLion]

I don't know about A50. He's seemed to give off town vibes, but there are little things starting to ping me about him. Like how he's calling out creature for goo talk, but doing it a lot himself. It feels a lot like he's trying to steer town away from scum hunting. He's also defending me when no one else is. Could be because he's scum, and therefor knows I'm town, and would get town points when I flip. That gets a bit WIFOM though, so I won't put much stock in that.


I would say right now A50 is probably at the top of my lynch pool.

want to vote him?

I've been conflicted about creature. I'm inclined to lean town on Creature though, because he's been invested. He's been posting. That's good for town!creature.

Yesterday you said he was null and his vote on you was terrible. Are you seriously now saying he's town just because he's posting? This is what a fake townread looks like

[GuiltyLion]

I would be happy with a massive, GL, creature, or chickadee lynch. I might consider a SS lynch because post flipping goo makes me question SS from yesterday.

this lynchpool makes no sense

Given how yesterday played out it's pretty clear that only one of massive/Chickadee is scum. How could you possibly be okay with lynching either of them? Choose a side

and again, SS is mechanically cleared as not goo, and we shouldn't be lynching goo today anyway

I'm actually feeling pretty confident that it's a {Chick, Almost50, java} team, will explain in a larger post in a second

[Chickadee]

Yesterday you said he was null and his vote on you was terrible. Are you seriously now saying he's town just because he's posting? This is what a fake townread looks like

I said I was conflicted.

Have you seen Scum!Creature? He's not invested at all.

His play has been really weird, yea, but I'm torn. Leaning town. And when I said his vote was bad, it was. And it was early in the day.

Didn't know I couldn't change my mind.

[GuiltyLion]

alright guys listen up

First off, more attention needs to be paid to the fact that Chickadee

stole massive's vote

. I don't see why anyone would read that as town given that she LITERALLY STOLE FROM HER COUNTERWAGON and still isn't voting him or pushing him as scum today. If we assume the same dueling wagons as most of D1 were to play out today, Chickadee's made it significantly harder to lynch herself and much more likely massive gets lynched, yet hasn't even cast any serious suspicion towards him today. If you're a town vote thief, you steal from your scumreads and you get them lynched. You don't steal from someone and then just ignore them and open the day by voting someone else, and later say this:

I did take Massive's vote, since Brie announced it for those that didn't put the dots together. I chose him because he was the likely lynch target yesterday. I figured that would be a good place to use my action since he was found scummy by most everyone in the game.

There's no real scumread on massive here. Chick is still playing nice and avoiding conflict.

Next, there are all the things I've been calling out. I don't see any genuine sorting from her, still. Her read on Creature went from "his vote on me was the worst" to "I don't remember what he's done" to "he's town by posting" without any consistent reason as to why it changed from point A to B to C. She's townreading me despite the fact that I've been pushing her the hardest since mid/late D1. These are opportunistic and safe reads.

I also don't understand why on earth Almost50 is townreading her. He's avoiding her wagon but he's never actually done this with any real passion or reasons given for townreading her. And Chick has Almost at the top of her lynchpool, which is a classic scum-scum distancing tactic. One townreads the other, one scumreads.

Then you have java who is coasting and making shallow posts like 884 where he's down to lynch pretty much everyone who hasn't yet made some kind of verifiable claim. There's no way someone can genuinely be on both sides of the massive/Chickadee fence.

Lynch today is between Chick/Almost/Java, I'll vote any of them and I'm interested to see if they'll vote eachother.

As for this:

Yesterday you said he was null and his vote on you was terrible. Are you seriously now saying he's town just because he's posting? This is what a fake townread looks like

I said I was conflicted.

Have you seen Scum!Creature? He's not invested at all.

His play has been really weird, yea, but I'm torn. Leaning town. And when I said his vote was bad, it was. And it was early in the day.

Didn't know I couldn't change my mind.

Did I say you couldn't change your mind? This is a misrep. The point is that there's no organic or visible progression in your Creature read, the reason you gave for townreading him could have applied far earlier in the game yet you said nothing about townreading him then, rather the points where you change from scumread to nullread to townread seem entirely arbitrary based on what the thread vibe seems to be.