House of the Dragon - Game Over!

[UNOwen]

I don't like the idea of a VP or GL lim today. Both feel like they're kissing Shea's ass (or Shea is scum).

I think you mistyped this?
VP and GL been fighting Shea

Titus did you explain what you meant here?

[JohnnyFarrar]

I am too. F the holidays.

[Titus]

I don't like the idea of a VP or GL lim today. Both feel like they're kissing Shea's ass (or Shea is scum).

I think you mistyped this?
VP and GL been fighting Shea

Titus did you explain what you meant here?

Both as lim targets. That was unclear. Mb.

[VP Baltar]

Titus, I'm not sure I follow why you think andres is scummy here. You think he has done scummy things or you're just PoEing him?

[Titus]

Titus, I'm not sure I follow why you think andres is scummy here. You think he has done scummy things or you're just PoEing him?

His pushback on me when I said I didn't remember his contributions felt bad but right now he's not a strong scumread. I'm playing mafia chess than mafia tunnel atm.

[GuiltyLion]

Hey y'all, couple things on my mind:

GLs flip will certainly inform my read of Dwlee.

Let me be

super fucking clear

, and this doesn't just go for you in the event that you're town Shea, this goes for everyone.

The read I want people to be "informed" of when I flip green is that

VPB IS TOWN

.

From pretty much early-mid D1 this game, there has been a

concerted

effort by slots like Mastina, Shea, and now Drap on D2 to assert that VPB/GL are a wolf duo because we townread each other and because we supported ourselves to be King, and because we supported to lim Dwlee. This has been a nonstop push against us to the point where it's just mindlessly repeated by everyone and I'm afraid people aren't going to bother to reassess if I'm limmed and just mindlessly roll into "well we were wrong on GL but that means VPB is just scum". If you do that, town deserves to lose this game.

As I said before, I have played with scum!VPB twice this year and this ain't it. His vibes are way different to me this game, I agree with basically everything he's posting - which has never happened before, and most of all Datisi has also expressed a strong TR on VPB for much the same reasons which makes me more confident it's correct.

If I'm limmed today, VPB should be considered IC-tier unlimmable on the back of how confident I am that he is town, and I hope people actually go back and start looking at how repeatedly our opinions and reads and voices were minimized in an attempt to wrest power from a Datisi-VPB-GL-Andres townbloc that was forming early in the game and could have easily run this game differently.

That brings me to a larger gamestate point, which is that it should also be clear to you on my elimination that

town is not currently in control of this game

. I'm town and I've noticed being gradually more and more boxed out of having any influence. Early on, seemed like people agreed with me and liked the idea of VPB King, or myself as King. Gradually, that shifted, and we went with a compromise TSQ option because Mastina et. al had made enough noise about "GL/VPB SCUM!!" that people didn't like it anymore. Next, Shea starts disagreeing with my reads in the supporter PT and goes against them with his council picks. At the time I could see that coming from town - sure, King should be a bit paranoid of his supporters, he might want checks and balances against scenarios where he's being buddied or scum are manipulating him. What I did get frustrated by was when Shea actually indicated that he thought VPB was town in the supporters PT

after

he made his council picks and after I had lobbied him aggressively to put VPB instead of Junko on there. NEXT, Shea went against the will of the majority of the town (including myself) to herovig a townie and save a lurky, scummy, slot. And after doing this there's been not a ton of resistance to going with Shea's preferred lim on D2!

so fmpov, knowing my alignment, after I got the King I voted for, I haven't gotten a council I've wanted, a single flip I've wanted this game, and I'm about to be limmed. When you see me flip town, you should be looking for who the wolves were that worked to ensure this outcome, that I was gradually taken down and pushed out of the game.

Please

reassess townreads on players like mastina, Shea, etc who have been working overtime to make sure their narrative wins, and

please

objectively look at how little we've done to catch scum so far.

[Titus]

Already doing it GL.

[GuiltyLion]

next on Luke - not going to respond to a specific post but there's been several about how I'm scum cause I pushed him on D1 and now we know he's town.

After this game and how it's played out, it's clear to me that Luke and I just don't agree on like... basics of mafia play. You can reread Divide & Conquer, Shakespeare, or KTANE and see similar frictions and clashes between us as T-T, and I guess the mistake I made this game was not learning from those.

Luke has a very black and white way of making his reads that I find easy to fake and somewhat non-sensical. When he asserts an early townread on LLD (one of the better wolves on the site), who at the time was not at all out of her scumrange, and then supports that read with points like "scum!LLD would not propose a popcorn nomination for King", it makes me think he's faking his reads, because I think town should be wayyyy more paranoid there and not put any stock into such easily fakeable things. And the way he looks for silly gotcha/contradictions in people's mindsets, like when I said his scumread on me post EOD1 was "classic Luke" it was because he can't seem to fathom that town can be in a state where a) they want to hold on to their previous once-strong TR on Shea and b) they really really hate the execution Shea just did and have a hard time seeing any town motivation on it to land in a state where they no longer trust Shea, they want to assume he's town, but they are starting to reckon with a world where he's scum. My reads are probabilistic, they're not static, I'm not going to demonstrate a 100% consistent strength/belief in my reads throughout because I'm constantly trying to integrate new information and evaluate worlds where a player is town vs ones where they're scum. So for him to think I "scumslipped" because LOL I FORGOT MY READ ON SHEA is just garbage nonsense and just totally missing the bigger picture

The other thing is that when I scumread and push on people, I do it in a confident manner. Because that's how you make people feel uncomfortable and how you make them feel pressure. If I indicate the

actual strength

of my early D1 scumreads, nothing would ever get done, because wolves don't feel threatened by "I've now lowered the odds of you being town from 70% to 60%", like in my mind there's a very significant meaning there - being on balance probably town but definitely scummier than other slots - whereas I think Luke expresses a binary gamestate/reads view where people are either scum or they're not. Andres, it should be clear to you that I pushed and pushed on Lukewarm because I thought he was scummy, but once it clicked for me that the things I was weighing were probably not-scum!indicative, I changed my mind and my read updated accordingly. I guess I don't understand why you think my progression is scummy, or whether you think it's just inherently scummy to be wrong on Lukewarm.

[UNOwen]

so fmpov, knowing my alignment, after I got the King I voted for, I haven't gotten a council I've wanted, a single flip I've wanted this game, and I'm about to be limmed.

Are you? My assumption is that we're going to end up executing dwlee, unless they become magically obvtown when they next have time to post.

[furtiveglance]

Occam's razor

VOTE: Dwlee99

[ProfessorDrapion]

If GuiltyLion wants to pull what they did then so be it.

They can be aligned and I’ll consider their flip, VP’s Flip.
If I’m wrong on GL I can accept I’m wrong on VP.
But I think both are wolves.

[VP Baltar]

If GuiltyLion wants to pull what they did then so be it.

They can be aligned and I’ll consider their flip, VP’s Flip.
If I’m wrong on GL I can accept I’m wrong on VP.
But I think both are wolves.

You think scum!GL makes a giant ass exasperated post advocating that I'm town rather than just coming into today like "maybe I'm wrong on VP" and shifts people in that direction, gets me limmed and then claims "see, I'm town because VP is town"

I can understand some paranoia on what I consider the towncore because we don't actually have a scum flip yet to direct us, but I find GL's posting to be very far out of scum range. I'm like 90% confident he's town here and you're not being very honest (with yourself if you're town) about the material before you.

[VP Baltar]

Shea would not be hard to convince to lim me, so I don't see why GL scum would 1) kill Luke and face scrutiny 2) take an unpopular position at that point to defend VP.

GL is very smart and those both seem like losing plays as scum.

[Datisi]

i don't think that would work really, because if gl walked in here arguing you're scum, he would

not

hear the end of it from me.

but i do agree guiltylion is pretty town here. surprise to nobody, i'm sure.

[VP Baltar]

i don't think that would work really, because if gl walked in here arguing you're scum, he would not hear the end of it from me.

I mean, if I was scum wanting to mislim me here, I wouldn't argue for it really. I just mean express uncertainty, prop up some of the bad arguments floating out there (such as mastina) and let town do the work.

In my experience, shading town!VP is pretty easy work because some people naturally don't like my style. Then you just need one loud mouth townie to do the dirty work (ala Nero in that one game).

I would definitely be sussed too of GL if that happened, but there is probably a subtlety in approach I might believe is town paranoia. Hard defending me is just like, what is his angle here if he's scum? People already think we are buddies. If he flips read, I'll be eating my hat for sure. So why keep selling it?

[Datisi]

i guess i'm thinking like... this doesn't really feel survivalistic from guiltylion. i don't think he thinks that going "fuck you my thoughts on luke made sense" is something that's gonna buy him points here. i feel like scum-him would be trying to much more violently push something out rather than give out these reads. because ~gamestate reads~ don't help him survive right now. arguing why you're town can potentially be argued to be lamist, but it doesn't serve a purpose of helping him right now.

like, idk if i'm explaining this well. i feel like scum-gl would be more single-objective focused here. rather than dropping gamestate reads that people likely won't take seriously at all unless he flips green. this just... doesn't feel like scum. i'm still so fucking confused why we're even *considering* killing him instead of dwlee.

[GuiltyLion]

so fmpov, knowing my alignment, after I got the King I voted for, I haven't gotten a council I've wanted, a single flip I've wanted this game, and I'm about to be limmed.

Are you? My assumption is that we're going to end up executing dwlee, unless they become magically obvtown when they next have time to post.

actually yeh I guess not, I thought there were more votes on me and when I saw Andres waffling I misread the momentum. obviously I'd prefer if Dwlee goes

[GuiltyLion]

Thanks. My stance on the game is something I am developing now looking at the data plus what I know of personalities. Shea is not a hero type personality, yet he kingmakes an elimination from someone at L minus 1 despite claiming he's not good at town early.

This leaves two likely possibilities:

1) Shea and Dwlee are scum together and Shea uses his attitude to hide this fact. Unlikely but possible.

2) Shea is being pumped up to make hero shots. This benefits scum regardless of Dwlee's alignment. If Dwlee is town, they've saved a miselimination for later. If he's scum, they protect him. Shea would be targeted due to his low self confidence post in this scenario.

Now time to check votes.

Unless there's wild shit happening in the council PT, I don't think #2 is happening because nobody that I saw in the Supporters thread or the main thread was encouraging that shot. Especially not on MariaR in particular.

My nightmare scenario is Shea is scum and Dwlee is town and the long con is to get a bunch of townies to look bad on Dwlee greenflip, but I think that's less likely because
a) scum could have pushed Dwlee over the edge by now, and I really don't see that wagon as full of scum at the moment
b) Dwlee just isn't being town lol

[GuiltyLion]

can we also talk about Dannflor

the times he's been around I haven't felt bad about his posts but there's starting to be a feeling that he's just profoundly detached from this game in a way that I haven't seen from him as town, idk if the holiday weekend is affecting his availability at all but it feels like he hasn't tried to steer the game in a Dann direction since like mid D1 yesterDay and that's starting to feel off to me

[GuiltyLion]

@Firebringer - do you really think it's an all-town council? why?

[UNOwen]

UNVOTE: dwlee

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

mathblade replaces junkochan

[MathBlade]

Howdy. Going to catch up over lunch. With the limited post count won’t do play by play.

Anyone got a TLDr for me?

[VP Baltar]

can we also talk about Dannflor

the times he's been around I haven't felt bad about his posts but there's starting to be a feeling that he's just profoundly detached from this game in a way that I haven't seen from him as town, idk if the holiday weekend is affecting his availability at all but it feels like he hasn't tried to steer the game in a Dann direction since like mid D1 yesterDay and that's starting to feel off to me

Yeah, I am also waiting for dann to do something. Feel like a number of people were pretty convinced of dann town D1, so maybe they can weigh in.

[MathBlade]

VOTE: Unvote Don’t want anyone hammered while I catch up unless it’s the will of the town