Heroes Wanted! (Game Over)

[Nero Cain]

@FA

-start with the Drixx ISO like you promised

[Nero Cain]

Like I feel like he is working against everything town is doing

I don't even think this is true and you're just being salty. Groupthink is lame as fuck anyways.

[MathBlade]

Math ... while I'm catching up another chunk of pages, can you gist me on current situation please?

Did you still need this? I have about another 30 minutes before I have to go to sleep.

[Drixx]

Math ... while I'm catching up another chunk of pages, can you gist me on current situation please?

Did you still need this? I have about another 30 minutes before I have to go to sleep.

Better if there's anything in particular you want me to look at or any particular questions.

[MathBlade]

Math ... while I'm catching up another chunk of pages, can you gist me on current situation please?

Did you still need this? I have about another 30 minutes before I have to go to sleep.

Better if there's anything in particular you want me to look at or any particular questions.

The suicide bomb plan would be good for you to look at if you could. Make sure we're not fucking anything up.

(Tomorrow one of the powers available is suicide bomb so the high level idea is we just explode all over the people who could be scum.
Gonna write up a post on the specifics here in a sec. )

[Drixx]

Math ... while I'm catching up another chunk of pages, can you gist me on current situation please?

Did you still need this? I have about another 30 minutes before I have to go to sleep.

Better if there's anything in particular you want me to look at or any particular questions.

The suicide bomb plan would be good for you to look at if you could. Make sure we're not fucking anything up.

(Tomorrow one of the powers available is suicide bomb so the high level idea is we just explode all over the people who could be scum.
Gonna write up a post on the specifics here in a sec. )

Can you point me at when the plan changed from me as the backup leader candidate to someone else, why that happened and who pushed for it?

[Nero Cain]

kinda me. I put a case on you and others find you sketchy. Like even if I was against you being backup leader (which I am!) it takes more than just me.

[Sando]

Can you point me at when the plan changed from me as the backup leader candidate to someone else, why that happened and who pushed for it?

It went from:
1) 2 people including you as one getting roughly equal votes
2) Sakura and only Sakura (pushed mostly by Sakura)
3) Sakura gets vast majority of votes with someone as a backup getting a small amount of votes (pushed by my forcefully, along with Theta and some others)
4) Same as (3) but FA is the backup, pushed by Math.

I dunno who pushed (1), but I felt like you not being backup was fairly organic once (2) happened.

[Drixx]

Further, her buddies didn't move in on me when Titus tried to set up a wagon on me, which says to me that they were already trying to not get tied with Titus.

This post pings me a bit. The reasoning is very flawed.

Let's say that Titus knows she's going to go down. Is trying to set up a wagon on a buddy that has no real chance to succeed within her scum range? Absolutely. Would doing that be useful if said scumbuddy wanted to push the idea later that said wagon didn't move because "the scums" were distancing from Titus? Yep.

So ... hebichan the kind of player who just overlooks the faulty logic?

[MathBlade]

So the plan is as follows: Sakura is leader (with an emergency backup of FA that probably won't be necessary unless scum have a death wish)

The leader then picks 3-5 pairs for the suicide bomb to go off in.
This example uses dead people but it's just for sake of clarity and not to get into minutia of who should go off on who.
{Cerb, Ank}
{Titus, Shiro}
{Another pair}
{Another pair}
{Another pair}
[[Pair count flexible as many as we see fit.]]


The leader Sakura gives the power to one of those two people in the pairing with the expectation that they blow up on the opposite.
The pairing is necessary so scum if they had power negate and were hiding it cannot stop the bomb from going off.
If the person in a pairing would be given a power and do not detonate it would be a scum claim. Hero suiciding at this point would be game throwing as the townblock would have all sorts of misdirection powers (like phasing) or BP or whatever protection powers of their choosing up.

That's the gist. There's been lots of talk of who blows up who and lots of differing opinions.

Pedit: I think Nero was the first to mention a scumread on you (so obviously he suggested otherwise) but mainly I swapped to FA after everyone started devolving into their own plans and it all seemed really not good. It kinda turned into a shit show as I was at work/heading home from it. So I just swapped to FA to kinda bring back sanity.

[Drixx]

kinda me. I put a case on you and others find you sketchy. Like even if I was against you being backup leader (which I am!) it takes more than just me.

Did you ever bother to make a case or are you still just throwing shit against the wall to see if it sticks?

[Sakura Hana]

It went something like.
Nero said you were scum.
I said that if Drixx is indeed scum then we cant trust him as leader but that idk who else could be leader.
I think Sando or Stun were proposed.
At one point i dont remember when, I said also that there should be a buffer between who ppl actually want to be a leader and the backup so that scum cant fuck it up.
People wanted me to be the main leader.
I asked people what they thought of my idea of me 100% not dying during the night or something.
Nancy then threw that she liked me being the only leader candidate.
I said I had worries if scum SOMEHOW did manage to kill me, but the information would probably be huge.
But people kept convincing me it would be fine.
Then Nero said that we should have a backup JUST IN CASE.
And so I agreed.
But then we had trouble figuring out said backup.
And it ended up being FA again.

[Nero Cain]

my post literally says "I put a case on you"

[Sakura Hana]

Nancy then threw that she liked me being the only leader candidate.

Could have been other people involved too, I could've also mentioned it, I dont remember, but I do remember Nancy pushing a lot that i should be the only leader coz Nero made a post sugesting that she was doing so coz she knew she could kill me or something.

[MathBlade]

Further, her buddies didn't move in on me when Titus tried to set up a wagon on me, which says to me that they were already trying to not get tied with Titus.

This post pings me a bit. The reasoning is very flawed.

Let's say that Titus knows she's going to go down. Is trying to set up a wagon on a buddy that has no real chance to succeed within her scum range? Absolutely. Would doing that be useful if said scumbuddy wanted to push the idea later that said wagon didn't move because "the scums" were distancing from Titus? Yep.

So ... hebichan the kind of player who just overlooks the faulty logic?

I think that it's not as flawed as it appears. I think the conclusion is correct but the reason Hebichan gives is bad.

I don't think Titus starts/joins/endorses a wagon on scum as she's going down. Remember at this point 123456789 is already flipped. Titus because of her obvscumminess and the leader bit is not too far behind. Pointing out attention to hebichan (or as some people suggested elsewhere Creature) and getting conversation going about them is poor scum strategy and Titus is better than that. The remaining wolves need to remain hidden to survive so Titus doing that wouldn't happen. The distancing itself is not the issue.

I think that if Titus did do that kind of scum stupidity it would have to be on hebichan however, but not for that post. Although I'm looking at revisiting my reads overnight because I think if hebichan was in a doomed scum role she'd replace out.

[Sakura Hana]

Here's the issue, tomorrow petrify is on the list, who is leader is extremely important and i bet scum is going to be all over wanting that sweet sweet petrify specially if scum has sneaked in the townbloc.
Everyone voting me, would solve that issue, BUT, if scum has ways of dealing with me then im dead and we get potentially a scum leader.
I am not gambiting to try to avoid getting killed, i am 100% doing as i stated so if i die, there's 3 options.

A) Scum was in tonight's list and got SS too.
B) Math didnt actually give me a power and so i couldnt SS.
C) Scum has a way of bypassing impenetrable skin on their own.

Oh yeah i did propose it nevermind!

[Nero Cain]

I put a case on you

Did you ever bother to make a case

Sometimes I think you are just scum that's trying to exhaust me. TBF, I am pretty fed up.

[MathBlade]

Mainly hebichan and Creature and a majority of other widely contested slots are gonna end up flipped anyway if we do the suicide bomber plan but it's more to establish reads and make sure all is good tonight. So I would focus on the suicide bomber plan and see if there are any major holes or things unaccounted for in it.

[Toogeloo]

I have a solidified gut scum read on Theta Alpine. Lots of bells and whistles going off.

Stun, after my flip, check Theta Alpine / Katsuki's ISOs. You got this!

[MathBlade]

2136 Is the reason I 'd at Drixx.

This went on for way too much. As someone who is friend to both of you:

I kinda didn't like this that much. Like I could see him try to diffuse this fight between FA and Titus. He also kinda fencesits on her.

This post makes it look like you don't actually want to be playing forum mafia. Like ... if you think content coming from a certain slot is worthless to you, then just scroll right on by. No need for this crap.

This ends up making me wonder if you're just making posts like this for LAMIST or something

.

I didn't really like how he scolds at ZZ here. It doesn't really feel like scumhunting. I also feel like the bolded is ridiculously dumb and buzzword heat and not a town thought process.

That would be a really good way to get me (and probably others) to decide you need to eat rope. You cannot wind someone up and keep pushing them and then invoke policy lynch on them because they took your bait. It's dirty play.

This is what made me really suspicious, he's threatening ZZ with a lynch for pushing a Titus lynch.

This post feels like so much hedging from someone who is informed. Gut doesn't like.

fusses @ Tor for fussing @ Titus.

who did you vote for leader drixx?

The sad part is that you probably think you have some kind of "gotcha!" here. Whom I voted for is self-evident. You shouldn't have to ask because you should already know.

b/c he voted for Titus?

I guess I need to go diving on Titus now. I could see her doing this as scum and turning the WiFoM to her favor. I could also see several players in this list who would know putting Titus as leader right now would introduce a ton of confusion.

And it has

.

more fence sit.

Could someone explain th bold, how did electing Titus as leader cause confusion? Is this scumDrixx that knows scum is the leader and it will cause confusion.

But seriously ... Cerb being night killed early is literally always a reason to suspect me.

Does scumDrixx WIFOM a kill like this?

Sando you got voted because you were literally intentionally winding Titus up to no possible town purpose.

voting someone for attacking Titus. Anyone notice a pattern yet?

kinda skimmed the rest of his ISO but I'm not really seeing much (any?) scumhunting. Mostly just defending himself and trying to figure out if Shiro had some wich I could see scum trying to do b/c it informs them about the setup. Part of me wants to say "Titus pushing back on Drixx makes a Titus/Drixx team not a thing" but that whole "anyone thats means to Titus or scumreads her I'll lynch" kinda irks me. Is that too obvious for scumbuddies? But then Toog is getting plenty of heat for defending Titus but Drixx isn't, so is Toog a scum led wagon?

There were a few kinda other sketchy things like he keeps telling ppl good post and stuff and kinda buddies his way through the game.

But defiantly our limited back and forth did play a huge role in my scum read.

7690 -ignore this guy, he can't read me

7691-is this true?

7692-Nero is lying/being selective

7693-look at all this evidence that proves this isn't

exactly

true.

7745-haha, I was just joking. Don't be so serious.

Nero after reading that-

@Drixx I think this is what Nero's case was.

@Nero if I missed something please add it.

[Sakura Hana]

I have a solidified gut scum read on Theta Alpine. Lots of bells and whistles going off.

Stun, after my flip, check Theta Alpine / Katsuki's ISOs. You got this!

uhh Theta replaced muffin and Nero replaced Katsuki

[Sakura Hana]

Well I guess im going to sleep, ill check on what FA might have unearthed and whatever else happens tomorrow i guess.

[Nero Cain]

and of course, Drixx leaves. :/

[MathBlade]

I hope Drixx’s silence is because he is thinking about the suicide bomber plan and not disappearing without goodnight. I will give him a while longer before I call it a night.

[Drixx]

Making no negative implication about FA's alignment ... it's unwise to have FA in the running again while we're still trying to figure out why people who should have had protection keep dying. There's some okay speculation about it but that's all we have ... speculation. The possibility space is too wide to just run with that as "the answer".

I think the bomb idea isn't necessarily bad; however, it is really risky and probably isn't a strong EV play. Like... we're in a really good situation and it seems like we're quite ahead. But that feeling that we're really secure is not necessarily accurate. I'm not sure it's a great idea to start setting up a situation where we potentially hand scum extra deaths. If you want to break it down to the most basic numbers: town have X mislynches and then we lose while scum have Y players and need only to keep one from being lynched to the end.

Like ... even if we have strong corporate reads and we hand bomb to someone who really is town ... that doesn't necessarily mean we're correct in the targeting. There's also the chance the player decides to freelance. (For example: If Nero is town and was given bomb, 99% he blows me and him up). So there's a risk that reads are wrong and even precise following of the plan just hands the scum two extra dead town plus if they get a mislynch and a night kill on the night before and night after we see a streak of 5 straight town deaths.

That doesn't even account for if a scum slips into the team and also takes bomb.

If the ATE isn't ATE but is actual town just giving up then this plan could result in the following nightmare scenario:

Town lynched today.
Town dies tonight.
2+ bombs go off tomorrow and 3-4 town die (can't rule out a townie taking it because they "know better")
Town dies tomorrow night.

That's the absolute worst case I know but ... if seven consecutive town deaths happen ... we're in serious trouble.

Just off the top of my head that would be the "Let's slow down and actually think through the risk vs. reward on this" -- did someone actually walk through the math and make sure that it's actually a good idea? My first instinct with that is to suggest no town players snag it. IF it gets picked up and used then it's a 1-for-1 trade which is always in town's favor. Town using the bomb is NOT always going to end up in town's favor.

I mean ... I'm assuming somewhere in the pages I need to read at least

someone

thought it through and talked about it but ... maybe not?


As far as me being leader goes: I don't have any particularly strong argument that I should be. I'm still probably 2 day phases (realistically) away from a significant increase in time available, so it's not like there's any particular reason to try and hard protect me. I would suggest finding a consensus backup that isn't FA though. I'm going to invoke the "I notice that I am confused" rule of rationality in terms of what happens when I think about the proposed explanations for why the kills have gone through on people who should have had BP. The only speculation that actually explains it completely would be that scum just get strongman and the superpower was meant for some other use or is a red herring.

But like ... I'm not sure if anyone actually knows what I'm saying when I say "I notice that I am confused" in that context.

Super stream of consciousness here. Feel free to ask questions. I'm currently on a side trail ISOing Hebichan.