Open 854 | Eurybia's Curse | Game Over!

[Isis]

There's not any other lims I don't have misgivings about except like maybe Cakez? Idk that slot

[Isis]

I'm teasing a I really think there's like a 50% chance skitter randed scum in this game that's a pretty strong read

[Andante]

If the other clears want to flip skitter, I guess I could join, I just don't SR skitter, but I'm not some expert at reading her

[SirCakez]

I need to read still but pls can we not do skitter?? No one has presented strong reasons for Meuh town

[GuiltyLion]

almost done reading up but feel an urge to comment on this

And where's the scum on the Beat wagon? Why is this being ignored?

I mean technically not every wagon needs a scum on it

But faker that would be a good thing to address actually

my thoughts here - I actually think an all-town Beat wagon is possible and would explain why D2 was so difficult. I really dislike Cakez trying to pull up "where's scum on Beat??" in his defense when he repeatedly scumread Beat on D1 (yet never voted it) and has not strongly scum hunted on the Beat wagon in my mind, like D2 he was voting Titus for a lot of it and then since mid-D2 all he's done is votepark marci and ignore the fact that the majority of the game is townreading her.

I was even getting an inkling of this possibility prior to Pav flip:

is there any sense in wondering whether Beat was an all town wagon or is that just absolute lunacy

[GuiltyLion]

Just cause like, there's no interactions, Pav barely acknowledges Cakez exists, and like, we have 5 clears or whatever now, Pav spends majority of focus talking to people who are now conf town

^^^^

this

again, Cakez doesn't mention or talk to Pav in any way until

sixty two pages

into the game

[GuiltyLion]

If meuh thinks its pav fruit coral
Why does she leave the 5 person pav wagon to either start or be the second vote on fruit

We know pav is scum
Ans fruit is town

This has not been adequately explained

Sure the progression tracks with her earlier stated reads
It still doesnt make sense as a thing to do at that point in the game

I agree that her vote on Pavowski is

very very good

it's actually the

THIRD TIME

she voted for Pavowski, she got zero traction the other two times.

This is the first time everyone in the game, Skitter, Me, Titus, Guiltylion hop on the train CHOO CHOO CHOO.

Cakes says he can vote there.

Pavo is literally inches from dying - so why would she change her mind on the wagon she actually wanted and

had good reason to want

when she's finally getting it?

If she has cold feet, then like who is giving her cold feet? She doesn't even

mention

Pavowski when she hops off - it's like oooh look over there a fruit!

I'll also chime in with where I'm at on this

you all seem to be saying "why would town unvote a leading wagon they scumread" and I agree that's bad townplay, for sure

but why would scum unvote there? It seems like you all are assuming that Meuh's unvote was intended to make an effort at saving Pav, but I don't think it does, especially if skitter is town then the engine of the Pav wagon is all town - and we see how it played out that Pav still got pushed through anyways. So all scum!Meuh has to gain from unviting is... bad optics? In my mind once scum decide to bus/wagon their buddy they usually stick to it and try to milk the towncred they want from it, they don't do some timid vote/unvote play because they're fully concerned with how it will look and point to them if their partner does get flipped. Especially in a set up like this where a buddy going down is tangibly quite bad for scum with 5 people cleared afterwards. if you're going to add fuel to that fire then you

have

to be getting something from it, and I don't think Meuh tried to.

so yeah I think Meuh unvoting is bad/hard to explain from town, but I think it's even harder to explain from scum, and I feel like skitt especially doesn't seem to be considering that angle

[GuiltyLion]

overall I think Faker makes a decently compelling case for scum!Coral - while I townread a lot of Coral's thought processes and ideas, it's not in an unfakeable tier of townplay, and if there's context and history where tw clashed with Aristeia in prior games I could maybe imagine him getting tilted and replacing out as scum, which was previously the foundation of my townread there.

however I think it's possible Faker could just be wrong and a Coral townflip feels like it would put us in a bad situation with a scum!Cakez escape, where as a hypothetical Cakez townflip doesn't feel as bad because whoever escapes in the remaining pool, whether Skitter or Meuh or Faker or whoever would give us a lot of hard information

and I still don't see a single compelling reason to TR Cakez or not flip him here

so that's where I'm at. I kinda feel skitter and Meuh are both town. I need to go dig through Coral's ISO and see where she is on Cakez, I haven't been zeroing in on associatives amongst the uncleared yet today

[GuiltyLion]

the fact that Coral hasn't voted at all today is bad

I get that people want the conftowns to lead but in my perfect world the conftowns would abstain from voting and the unclears would be voting first to demonstrate actual intent/commitment to their reads

[Faker]

I'm at that point of "Fuck it I don't know". I'm going to draw names out of a hat that aren't marcistar's and then vote there or townread them depending on of how my most recent meal is sitting in my stomach.

[GuiltyLion]

I think where I am is that it's either Skitter/Cakez or Coral/Cakez, ultimately. I'd bet on Coral/Cakez before Skitter/Cakez but the Skitter/Cakez world scares me if we lim outside those two today

[Faker]

I'm a bit divergent in 4306 in that as much as I want to assert she should be a townread, I really have very little concrete to point to besides the votes around Pav and the fact that I was the only unclear not willing to vote her.

Speaking of which that's fucking stupid VOTE: Coral

I also still think some interactions of Pavowski's with her are +town but those are all separate. I'm arguing she's town despite the Fruit vote at this point, I don't think it's actively +town. Everyone can get on my case for saying "but there's no way it happens as town!" but I feel like I've adequately explained how it

might

[Aristeia]

I am scum with everyone. It is a fact.

maybe we just yeet faker tbh

[Meuh]

imo we just leave Marci and Faker alone today
Preferably lim in Skitter/Cakez
If not, Coral is okay but only if you pinky promise it’s gonna be Skitter/Cakez tomorrow

Still feeling this

[Aristeia]

the fact that Coral hasn't voted at all today is bad

I get that people want the conftowns to lead but in my perfect world the conftowns would abstain from voting and the unclears would be voting first to demonstrate actual intent/commitment to their reads

this is a very good point


also it applies to marci

i honestly have 0 clue what she is doing today

im not sure she has even tried to look for mafia

[Aristeia]

imo we just leave Marci and Faker alone today
Preferably lim in Skitter/Cakez
If not, Coral is okay but only if you pinky promise it’s gonna be Skitter/Cakez tomorrow

Still feeling this

do you think the scum team is exactly skitter/cake?

[Coral]

Okay, I've more fully absorbed the back and forth mostly surrounding Meuh that went on recently now, and I didn't get a ton out of it, a lot was rehashing points that seemed similar to previously made ones. I do at least believe that the vote on Meuh from Faker isn't clearing her from being a partner, based on the way it progressed, but it does probably make it less likely since it could be a risky move

[GuiltyLion]

also Cakez's spree of posts from 4068 to 4076 just feels like caught scum panic to me

Faker is a very smart mafia player and obv way better at this game then I
The fact that they continue to make ridiculous logical errors over and over is convincing me they are scum

this post in particular feels like scum mindset in how he says Faker's logical errors "is convincing [him]" that Faker is scum

if he was actually being convinced he'd just assert that Faker is scum, rather than that his mindset is evolving to Faker-scum. instead this feels self-aware that he needs to emulate a thought process

[Faker]

That's not to me but my YOLO is still exactly skitter/Coral.

As mentioned yesterday I haven't thought at all about skitter/Cakez and I probably should, shrug, but my chips are in and the issue for me is I have maybe 128 bits of memory and can't remember why I made that decision (skitter/Coral) for the life of me, and I also frequently take after my husband and turbotoss.

[GuiltyLion]

Faker do you have a reason it's not Coral/Cakez

[Meuh]

imo we just leave Marci and Faker alone today
Preferably lim in Skitter/Cakez
If not, Coral is okay but only if you pinky promise it’s gonna be Skitter/Cakez tomorrow

Still feeling this

do you think the scum team is exactly skitter/cake?

I think that’s the most likely team, but I’m not incredibly confident on it
Otherwise I’d hedge my bets on Coral/Cakez and if that’s still wrong then it’s Skitter/Coral. That duo seems the most unlikely of the 3, though.
If neither of those are true then I guess Faker or Marci is scum, probably the former.
This is why Cakez lim today sounds particularly good, not only is he most likely scum so we win a bunch of the time by doing it, but if he isn’t we still have a decent gamestate imo (since several probable teams get ruled out)

[Faker]

Yeah, I thought Cakez going aggressive against me just because I kept going after Coral was one of the absolute fucking dumbest things I have ever seen if he is scum.

Scum needs to eliminate two townies to win, not one.

[Aristeia]

i am willing to yeet cakez if thats what people want

[Andante]

YO WAIT... GL... you're agreeing with me on my Cakez stuff? hahahaha that's awesome!! I was barely here... but yeah reading Pav's ISO, it's like, nothing with Cakez? yeah.. idk I'm not 100% convinced, cause all I've done was look at VCs and read pav's ISO

[Andante]

hahahaha if cakez is town I'm gonna feel so bad though