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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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hi im the person that correctly scum read Black in that game Dragon linked
for the record i would not have requested replacement into this game if i didn't think black was town here-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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dragon can you explain how you emotionally went from this:
In post 872, DragonEater70 wrote: Feel free to eliminate me because I fucking threw this game.
Or alternatively, if someone has a guilty or a hot scumread, let me know.
to the confidence of this:In post 874, DragonEater70 wrote: No, you are right.
I am trying to get myself limmed so I don't get mislimmed in ELo, lol.
In post 900, DragonEater70 wrote: Do note that's E-1 (not that I'm complaining)-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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because that does not feel like your actions are matching your emotions-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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in fact that emotional inconsistency feels eerily similar to my own scum game in Purgatory where I just open wolfed with incorrect reads, performatively felt bad about my incorrect reads, and then continued pushing incorrect reads:
viewtopic.php?t=87252
I am so embarrassed right now
Be back tonightI'm not sure how much I trust my individual reads this gamei just...
have no faith in any of my individual reads this game-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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then why on earth do you suddenly have the confidence to quick elim Black - even after you admit you could be conf biasing - when you being wrong would mean you're stuck in 5p Elo tomorrowIn post 911, DragonEater70 wrote: Like for fuck's sake, I started the day by telling people to eliminate me because I know I just don't live to 3p ELo.-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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like whatIn post 876, DragonEater70 wrote: please don't murder me if I'm wrong because this was some weeks ago
your stated uncertainty does not match up with your actions here
if you're town you literally are gamethrowing here-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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anyways I'll be back later tonight to properly read up and such
please do not kill me in the meantime-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Black’s ISO and Day 2In post 937, DragonEater70 wrote: How much of this game have you read, Dann?
I’m working on reading now-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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wow there's a lot of quote wall posters in this game-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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that comment was mainly directed at Dragon if-townIn post 939, Afrayed Knott wrote: Hi Dann, are we then to conf TR you as you wouldn't take the role if Black had not been town, is that what you are saying?
he's basing part of his scum read on my slot based on another game that just ended where i was correctly scum reading black
I think I've built up a pretty solid mental model of black as a player since then, I'm not like infallible, but I'll just say I was pretty sure I was replacing into a town slot
do with that what you will-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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I'll post about this like exactly once because I don't think this is gonna be very useful for many people in this game. but since you askedIn post 934, DragonEater70 wrote: I have a question for you though: what made you feel Black was town before you repped? Maybe I can also see it.
largely, town Black is a lot more reactive than scum Black. Black enjoys scum a lot and she tends to take on a proactive role in her games, whether that's distancing with a buddy or pushing a miselim or just generally sowing discord
Black's early game here is very relaxed and gave me the vibes of her being content to let information filter in and figure out the game that way
it's quite the stark contrast the game i just finished playing with her where within 5 pages of the game starting she'd launched a pretty hefty push against her scum partner and myself and was pretty invested in getting herself town read and establishing herself as a major player in this game
in her town games her approach to the game doesn't focus so much on establishing herself in the town core, she's content to play the detective role and *figure the game out*, and I felt her ISO here matched the latter model much more closely-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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with how many wagons got to E-1 or got almost quick hammered D1 I am skeptical about thisIn post 936, DragonEater70 wrote: Like I think if someone quickhammer(ed) Black they'd be autolimmed tomorrow.
But maybe I am stupid and that's not how it works in Newbies.
particularly when you felt the need to call this out specifically earlier?
like this does not give me the impression you think a quick hammer would necessarily be auto elimmed the next dayIn post 341, DragonEater70 wrote: Python you wanted to generate content by jumping on wagons, didn't you? Let's do this.
VOTE: black
NOTE: DO NOT HAMMER BLACK OR YOU WILL BE POLICY LIMMED-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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dragon can you go into detail on your Afrayed read-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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hi sorry for dropping off, i had a really busy day at work yesterday and went to sleep early
I have some thoughts on this game ill share today-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Dragon
That is not helpful if you are town
Do you have a solve
I feel like you just threw your hands in the air when i repped in-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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I would so so much rather you go out pushing a solve you believe in if you’re town than doing whatever this is
This just accomplishes giving scum a free walk through today if you’re town-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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also like
I have no idea why you think it’s suddenly going to be easier to solve the game tomorrow if you die here than it is today-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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i mean this is why you just shouldn't do it as town ever-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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I would rather notIn post 1087, DragonEater70 wrote:
Are you going to answer 945 NOW, at least?In post 1085, Dannflor wrote: i thought it was dragon/knott-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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I have an immediate inclination but I think it's best to not give mafia information on how to arrange their F5-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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I'm sorry this happened and I'm sorry I didn't get a chance to engage with you more assuming you're town here
if I'm still alive tomorrow i will dedicate some time to this and try my best to avenge you-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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i think any investigatives like cop or tracker should claim today and out their results-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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protective should probably remain unclaimed unless you are a jk who thinks you have a guilty
I doubt scum risked no killing here-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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we must be careful with votes today
It’s not as bad as an f5 in that a miselim doesn’t necessarily immediately lose and quick hammers probably won’t happen but we are still very close to losing so like
please no votes until you’re very sure and everyone has said their piece-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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I guess it might depend on which row or column we’re in but i would think the chance of an investigative or even masons still being alive would make no killing less optimalIn post 1111, Cometbright wrote:
How come?In post 1104, Dannflor wrote: I doubt scum risked no killing here-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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I hope you feel better Timmer!
let’s wait for a potential Cc first
I’m not ccing btw-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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probably you should out your target now timmer
Merlyn if you’re a cop you should just claim your results tbh-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Does pigeon investigating python make sense
@people who were in the game before me
Pedit: lol-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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I wonder why scum!merlyn wouldn’t have just checked that-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Why did you check Afrayed over a slot like Timmer, Merlyn?-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Do i remember correctly that the merlyn slot was put to e-1 at some point d1
I’m running errands and on my phone or else i’d check for myself but if I’m rememmbering correctly that wagon might be worth checking out to rule out possible Merlyn teams-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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probably worseIn post 1136, Cometbright wrote: I think you're town fwiw - does there being 4 townie on VIP/Merlyn's slot fake hammer wagon make Merlyn look worse or better to you? Or no indication either way?
It doesn’t necessarily mean merlyn is scum but it is very punishing for scum to lose a member d1 in this setup
I think the winrate is very very low for scum in newbies with d1 scum eliminations
so I’d expect a potential partner to be off a wagon like that-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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I’m out doing family stuff today but I’ll make time for this game tonight-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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I'm a little alarmed by the sudden consensus that merlyn is more likely to be lying, I'd kind of expect a little more waffling if she had a partner out there who planned a CC with her
I didn't originally think scum no-killing would be all that likely but considering today could be endgame if we elim wrong I guess I shouldn't discount it completely-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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i think what i want to do is go through and look at who timmer actually makes sense to be teamed with, if anyone - and then if there is anyone i can rule out as being teamed with timmerIn post 1169, Cometbright wrote: If Timmer scum then Merlyn is cop and scumteam of Timmer/??? deliberately chose not to night kill.
If Merlyn scum then Timmer is indeed the jailkeeper who jailkept Merlyn and likely stopped her from killing (there is still a world though where scumteam Merlyn/??? chose not to night-kill).
likewise for merlyn-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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I'm not really getting much out of watching merlyn and timmer yell at each other-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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I understand if you're town it might seem ridiculous from your positionIn post 1174, TimmerRC wrote:
Deliberately chose not to nightkill and then revealed a roleclaim unprovoked that would be immediately contested if it were false.In post 1169, Cometbright wrote: So way I see it there are two options here:
If Timmer scum then Merlyn is cop and scumteam of Timmer/??? deliberately chose not to night kill.
If Merlyn scum then Timmer is indeed the jailkeeper who jailkept Merlyn and likely stopped her from killing (there is still a world though where scumteam Merlyn/??? chose not to night-kill).
The question I suppose comes down to do you think it's more likely that scum deliberately no-killed to cast suspicion or do you think mafia was blocked from killing via Jailkeeper.
but I'm not sure if it's *actually* that ridiculous considering your position coming into today
I guess I should also consider why scum!merlyn would think it's her best bet to counterclaim instead of just claiming vanilla-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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can i ask who everyone's guess for merlyn's partner is?-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Afrayed can you explain how you got hereIn post 1164, Afrayed Knott wrote: Currently my vote today will go to Merlyn.
I know you've been hard scum reading Timmer for quite a while and you acknowledged that but it's not clear to me what made you decide Merlyn was more likely to be lying-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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I mean if timmer is scum than afrayed is 100% town by virtue of merlyn's inno?-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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so actually afrayed/timmer cannot be a team-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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timmer can only be scum with comet or kittie
or me from an outside perspective-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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I guess this is too early for sure to say it's unpartnered, you don't really go back to hard pushing Timmer after this early bitIn post 103, Cometbright wrote: Hmmm... I could spend a lot of time shifting people around but I think this is roughly where my mind is right now. Obligatory this is early day 1 reads that are subject to change as the day develops.
Town
Python
Anen
Black <3
Dragon <3
Gimli
Knott
Kittie
Timmer
Scum
And as promised, VOTE: TimmerRC as he's bottom of the list.
but I would consider a bit unlikely to come from partners-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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was there a specific point you started town reading timmer, comet? I'm finding it difficult to track your read of him-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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In post 1206, Cometbright wrote: Funnily enough when I was browsing through Timmer scumpartners my first thought was "I think frankly I come out of this looking the most partnered."
eh I think surface level maybe but there are also posts like 87 that i think feel a bit hard to make as scum talking to a scum buddy?
it helps that I think individually you're probably the towniest slot in the game but I'd also expect a little more of a clear trajectory in your posting about your read on timmer if you were partnered. I find scum usually want to make it clear where they stand on their partner at all times, even if it's just "null"-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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this is basically where I'm atIn post 1210, Cometbright wrote: I'm not capable of processing more than four things actively in my head at once so I'm just gonna write you off as town here Dann (you can thank Black for it).
Teams in my head...
Timmer/Kittie, Merlyn/Kittie, Merlyn/Knott.
Mathematically that makes Merlyn the better execute - unless I'm Monty Hall-ing myself here.
I'm trying to assess how worried I am about timmer/kittie being a thing
I wish I could just find something clearing and feel good about this but both isos are kind of sparse in mentions of each other-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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like this is the type of post i see scum making to other scum a lotIn post 174, TimmerRC wrote:
Who are your gut feelings about?In post 157, Kittiesecret wrote: comet: #98 Yes I'm going to marinate on my thoughts a while we are only barely 24 hours into the game and 6 pages. I do have some gut feelings about some players but that's all they are at this moment.
I'm new, I don't have thought processes yet... I have gut feelings but those aren't based in any kind of fact, We have like 9 days to go before a decision really needs to be made.
pretty easy questions to build interactions that don't really get followed up on
i also get an uncomfortable vibe that kittie came in today pretty much having already decided merlyn was scummier than timmer and I don't really follow why that is-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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I find a kittie/merlyn team pretty unlikelyIn post 977, Kittiesecret wrote: Does anyone else find it suspicious that both black and VIP replaced out, when it looked like they were being looked at a little too hard?
kittie has been shading VIP pretty much all game it looks like and it doesn't really look reciprocal in a distancing way
i also think the above quoted post is like... very weird to come from a scum buddy. I think that's not the sort of thing you draw attention to if your goal is to distance
more likely to be a townie who thinks they are on to something or scum trying to shade/discredit town imo-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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please don't put merlyn to e-1 yet
I'm not quite ready for that-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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I'm going to be honest I feel like this outburst is a little town indicative from Afrayed
I mean I guess unless he's panicking because he thinks his scum buddy merlyn is goin to be limmed and throwing everything at the wall to see what sticks
but then why not stay on comet-
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