open 894: near vanilla (game over)

[Titus]

Intent. 24 hours.

[Titus]

Camel, I am not sure you can. Regardless of alignment, you're taking it like a champ.

[Titus]

VOTE: ccs

If this is wrong, I'll reevaluate everything.

[Titus]

@Jupiter 1349 I'm not quoting the entire post, but I think I can answer your questions by explaining our interactions.

We start with some witty banter that was fun.

When Black makes 256 at ProjEctRy, I started to suspect her. The early posts might have been disagreements, but Black knows what newbie scum can do. We've done it. This suggested a pocket of ProjEctRy. 258 suggested to look more at what ProjEctRy was pushing at the time.

If you look at posts 249 and 251, ProjEctRy was denying townreads on AK, Bellaphant and me. In 144 ProjEctRy wants to deny townreads on Dann. Altogether, ProjEctRy was scumhunting, but being wrong in his first game.

This promotion and buttering of wrong reads and chaos is exactly what I'd do as scum.

I know however, if you take a shot at the scumhead, you'd better not miss. So I had to get people to my cause while they think it's their idea. Evil and manipulative, sure but I also had reasons for staying in the back.

I kept watching.

In 260, Black talked about "town vibes" from K, which was the opposite I got but maybe it was the language barrier. Maybe Black was pocketing. So I checked her ISO more. This is more past reading than I ever do in a game, but Black is worth the challenge.

We'll address Black's interactions with K as we progress. For now, she's fine with having "vibes" on K but disapproves of gut hunches I had on K. She "can't argue" 131with vibes for townreading Aisa. 124 The implication is that Black would want to argue. She does want something different from Bella, which strongly suggest Bella is town and so is Aisa.

We then have a conversation about "gut" which is really synonymous with "vibes". I mention in 152 that my K scumread is gut. In 197, Black promotes ProjEctRy based on "gut". ProjEctRy is denying townreads in 144 like we established. At this point, Black is using ProjEctRy to throw out reasons to attack town, which is a common tactic I use. Promoting bad reads.

But I digress. Black in 269 is questioning JupiterXV townreading Dann because of gut and nothing Dann did. This is an implication that if JupiterXV stuck just to logic Dann would remain out of the townblock. This is also notably the first time Black straight up objects to gut. She only offered a different opinion on K. This suggests both Dann and JupiterXV are town. Her renewing the objection in 275 reinforces this. While it's not an issue being a hypocrit in a mafia game, the hypocrisy reveals alignment.

282 and the others in that section are a pocket attempt on JupiterXV. 313 Black is objecting to shaddow sticking up for Aisa's little evidence to TR me. This suggests Shaddowez is town along with Aisa.

348 Black reasonless townreading K. In 349 Black suggests that K's content is better than Sky and Nono. She accuses AK of shade. She takes the opposite position that we should eliminate in the active posters because 1) town wouldn't likely go for a no lim in a cohesive gamestate and 2) with T3 v/la and K being low content himself, an active lim is better as it had high odds of being town.

383 I am taking a back seat but watching. 419 Scum generally don't apologize for actually helpful posts.

463 Black walks back a townread on K. The backing off comes when K isn't a wagon. 477 more evidence JupiterXV is town.

543 is where I drop a hint I think Black is scum. If I shoot there, I cannot miss.

I'll include more solve tmo. But TLDR Project, AK, Dann, Aisa, JupiterXV, Bellaphant and shaddowez are all hinted clear from my pov from just the first 500 posts since Black does not treat K or T3 in anywhere the same manner. Black approaches like a chess match. I'll explain more manipulation tonight or tmo.

Sorry Jupiter, question required to much but explaining the early game is a start.

I jailed Aisa as Aisa is a popular scumread.

We are clearly in nightless though. Let's hold off a choice until after Christmas.

I'd like feedback on the above post.

[Titus]

VOTE: AK
VOTE: Aisa

HEAL: JupiterXV

[Titus]

Shouldn't we compare Black's tone with T3 as the baseline?

[Titus]

It's a nightless game. Pretty clear with the K elim being wrong. While I jailed Aisa, that's not an auto guilty. Scum at this point are fishing for the doctor. Killing anyone clears someone else. That would be close to a mathematically impossible win. It's in our position to wagon as few people to claim as possible.

[Titus]

Maybe we are on the same planet

Titus is saying that the less people we run up, the less people are pushed to claim doc/not doc.

But it means our votes are a bit restricted

P-edit maybe this is a start of a beautiful friendship

This. I'm actively just jailing who I think we should lim and otherwise being passive.

[Titus]

I am not liking AK attacking everyone and their brother.

[Titus]

I am not liking AK attacking everyone and their brother.

whos ak's brother

It's an expression. Basically I don't like AK fosing everyone.

[Titus]

can we kill shaddowez ty

After Aisa and AK maybe

[Titus]

Just a thought. Titus is conf town, but she is giving nothing to town at all. She should be leading town, but there is absolutely nothing coming from her that would, recently, suggest to me that she is committed to this game. Ok we can argue the toss about its Christmas, but even before then her only input is to get upset with me. Get a grip Titus and lead town please


Sorry if you think I am attacking you, but I am!!

I'm

not

leading town until I have to. We don't narrow down the doctor. We don't fish and get multiple claims. I'm not giving scum the wincon of pocketing me.

[Titus]

can we kill shaddowez ty

After Aisa and AK maybe

We’re never killing AK wtf

I don't see why you townread AK's play today.

[Titus]

Hmmmmmmm. So no need to rely on you. Thanks

How come everything out of your mouth is a discredit of me?

[Titus]

For the record, consider me willing to hammer anyone not claiming doctor.

[Titus]

Titus you are simply in this game because you are conf town and what is eating me is you are not utilising that position for the good of town. That's my POV. And it's not changing until you get in the game and help us win

You are entitled to your opinion. I'm playing to avoid disaster. We won without a heavy number of chefs in the kitchen. We gave my theory a shot. It failed.

I'm watching and collecting data at the moment. We just avoid hitting the doctor and we're fine.

[Titus]

i mean it's not

awful

since Titus has a confirmed clear this night unless she jails AK to prevent him from dying (which is not a risk I think Titus should take tonight) but it most definitely would've been better to just keep grinding this out

Agreed. I don't get what I did to get AK just opposing anything I'm doing. I bet it's a fake because AK wants to die and be done with the game.

[Titus]

Seeing as people have posted without counter claiming, then noone else should counter. Id like knot to tell us his actions but I doubt that'll happen

I wouldn't counter here. I think it's pretty obvious a fake, regardless of what AK says. AK is likely town though.

[Titus]

Ok, we need to consolidate

[Titus]

Glad to have fresh eyes. I'm playing second fiddle and it drove AK mad.

[Titus]

He "claimed" he was the doctor which might not be true (don't confirm).

[Titus]

Glad to have fresh eyes. I'm playing second fiddle and it drove AK mad.

(also i am unsure of the meaning of this expression in this context but your conclusions about afrayed knott stemming from it are correct)

I'm not abusing my conftown status to force lims through. Plus mathematically it doesn't matter unless we hit the actual doctor.

[Titus]

This means there's about a 33% chance T3 is scum because Titus jailkept him. Maybe you think it's unlikely that T3 was the nightkill target (fair enough) - that's still a 50-50 split between "T3 is scum" and "the Doctor saved someone last night".

What I've been trying to say for a while is that

if I'm scum, I don't have to be the person carrying out the kill

what do we think is the % chance t3 kept making this argument because t3 was not the player who carried out the kill?

Nothing stops that from being true.

[Titus]

Aisa should be the lim as there's a not doctor claim. Regardless of alignment, scum would want someone else dragged up.

[Titus]

right like titus knows what she is doing if you have four hard towns + two clears the game is solved and if the scums decide to continue to no kill to prevent the clears then we gain more eliminations and game solved

Objectively, it doesn't matter who I jail unless a doctor flips.

[Titus]

largely agree with your assessment of the game

nothing has really made me rethink shaddowez as the most likely candidate

I think Jupiter has some equity

then maybe Aisa after that

Can you vote Aisa then? I'm concerned about getting a second non-doctor claim.

[Titus]

VOTE: shaddowez

Dann, you're making me suspect you here.

[Titus]

We have 8 hours. Decent chance I'll be at work.

[Titus]

Do we have a hammer?

[Titus]

Looks like we do.

[Titus]

I jailed shadow.

[Titus]

VOTE: shaddowez

[Titus]

Spoiler: setup math

If we get to five, without limming the doctor or scum, it would look like this

VT
VT
Scum
Doctor
Me

If scum fail to kill, then we get to lim again. Let's say we hit a VT.

That leaves 4 alive.

At this point, we do a mass claim, VT or Doctor. Scum must pick who they CC. Confirming the other.

Scum cannot win.

If we get to 5 alive, and scum kill the doctor, then it looks like

Me
Confirmed VT
VT
Scum

Which is GG, because even if scum miseliminate, I jail the scum.

If we reach five alive, I jail the doctor and scum kill a VT,

Then we get

Me
Doc
VT
Scum

That repeats the cycle from avove.

Today, we lim Shaddowez because they implicitly claimed not doctor. If we reach five alive without an outed doctor, scum lose. We do not want wagons on anyone else as it risks outing the doctor.

Of course, objectively this game turns into putting the tail on the cat.

If everyday, 1 VT volunteers to be eliminated until we reach four alive, scum will find it near impossible to win. As long as we don't care about being correct, we win.

We have 9 alive.

Tomorrow, we have 8 alive. A VT volunteers to be eliminated tomorrow.
7 alive.
At VT volunteers to be eliminated the next day.
6 alive.
A VT volunteers.
5 alive. Doc VT VT Me Scum
One last volunteers.
Massclaim.

GG.

As long as we don't wagon people other than volunteers until 4 alive, we win.

Scum are forced to try and shoot.

So we lim shaddowez. Sorry bud.

Fast nights please.

[Titus]

If scum shoot and kill not doctor and I jail not doctor, then it's 7 alive

Confirmed VT
Me
Doc
VT
VT
VT
Scum.

Doc always heals me. I always jail confirmed VT.

VT volunteers. GG scum.

To win, scum must gamble on me jailing the doctor and killing.

[Titus]

Only one VT volunteers per day.

[Titus]

Does it also mean we basically speed run the days?

Yes

[Titus]

So please don't hint at being the doctor. Please do not.

Can we get more shaddowez votes?

[Titus]

Correct. It

might

be shaddowez but this is more about preventing failure.

[Titus]

yeah the biggest problem with every day since d2 is that where people voted hasn’t been super alignment indicative

There isn't really a way to fix it. Everyone just plays not me regardless of alignment. That is until we have enough VTs gone to force scum to CC someone. If scum reaches 4 alive, with me and the doctor alive, they are screwed.

If VTs volunteer, then scum cannot win unless they gamble on killing. However if they gamble, they risk being locked in. Not giving leads is a good thing.

The moment someone says they are fine with it, we pounce.

[Titus]

I jailed Skygazer.

[Titus]

VOTE: skygazer

It's jailed and not a doctor claim. We don't screw around.

[Titus]

titus not sure why you jailkept me but please don't go for a deepwolf again tonight

.....you weren't jailed for being a deepwolf. You were jailed for the opposite.

[Titus]

for the record i still do not understand what is going on mechanically but am assuming i absolutely fumbled today huh

If we keep having no kills, scum lose.

[Titus]

I don't think we talk here.

[Titus]

better let skygazer claim first

Skygazer pretty much has