Open 721: Pick Your Poison (Game Over)


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Post Post #17 (isolation #0) » Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:54 am

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Am I missing something because I only see one duck

VOTE: Oxy
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Post Post #25 (isolation #1) » Fri Apr 20, 2018 11:21 am

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I'm thinking there's at least one scum in {ofrhz, Sunshine13} unless one of them gets an avatar
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Post Post #26 (isolation #2) » Fri Apr 20, 2018 11:21 am

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ofrhz is it you? You should know it's not me because I was scum last game
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Post Post #29 (isolation #3) » Fri Apr 20, 2018 11:25 am

Post by ruru »

In post 27, the worst wrote:
In post 26, ruru wrote:ofrhz is it you? You should know it's not me because I was scum last game
on a scale of 1 to 10 how serious is this post?
I take my gambler's fallacies very seriously, so probably 10/10
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Post Post #32 (isolation #4) » Fri Apr 20, 2018 11:26 am

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TW is town I think we should look elsewhere
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Post Post #36 (isolation #5) » Fri Apr 20, 2018 11:31 am

Post by ruru »

VOTE: Mohab500

Sheep me, ducklings!
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Post Post #38 (isolation #6) » Fri Apr 20, 2018 11:35 am

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I don't want SS to be scum though
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Post Post #43 (isolation #7) » Fri Apr 20, 2018 11:50 am

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What did UglyDuck do
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Post Post #104 (isolation #8) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 2:13 am

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In post 94, Mathdino wrote:i also have a system for making sure vigs don't shoot PRs (they seem to do this a lot) but we'll talk about that more down the line
Does it involve town voting on either a player to shoot or no shot and having the majority voted player claim?

Vig feels super powerful to me. If town does it that way, it's like having 2 extra days to VCA / lynch scum

Vaguely similar to a 2-shot doc/JK that never guesses wrong, except the doc doesn't get extra information about who scum tried to NK, and the shot has to be decided without seeing the day's flip, and you don't get an extra day of investigative results (not super relevant in this setup I guess)?

I feel like I wouldn't want to give town vig if I were scum. I was trying to break the setup and I thought scum would pick either
IC+cop+tracker (based on power levels alone, but now scum have to claim JK)
IC+cop+JK (claim tracker, try to lynch JK claims)
IC+tracker+JK (claim cop, try to lynch JK claims)

Unlike JK, giving town a vig doesn't let you try to lynch the vig.

The other choices seemed less useful to me because they give town more objective power without adding to the fake claim space.

I came up with some strategy to reduce scum's claim space based on IC claiming D1. If IC gets shot, lynch all JK claims. Otherwise, there's a confirmed town that probably lives until JK dies. I'm not sure if it even makes sense though. I don't have a good understanding of how bad it is to out IC, and how bad it is for JK to be somewhat afraid to jail people other than the IC
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Post Post #105 (isolation #9) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 2:17 am

Post by ruru »

brassherald: My vote is currently on Mohab500


Fixed.
Last edited by brassherald on Sat Apr 21, 2018 2:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #107 (isolation #10) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 2:41 am

Post by ruru »

In post 102, AP wrote:
In post 25, ruru wrote:I'm thinking there's at least one scum in {ofrhz, Sunshine13} unless one of them gets an avatar
Do you think you thinking that should make me more or less likely to think the same?
I don't feel like that post should really change your thinking I guess? Hard question honestly...

Do you think I should think that me thinking that should make you more or less likely to think the same?
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Post Post #108 (isolation #11) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 2:46 am

Post by ruru »

In post 59, skitter30 wrote:Remember how I kept on going about how nervous-awkward you were last game? And like you felt kinda distached from the gamestate? And like very passive and very careful? You don't really feel like that here, so townpoints. Oxy gets townpoints too for picking up on this here too.
If I project confidence in this one, I'm faking it too, just as town this time!

I'm also always super awkward with people I haven't met before which was everyone last game
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Post Post #243 (isolation #12) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 1:37 pm

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In post 205, the worst wrote:
@RURU


tell me a bit about yourself?
where do you hail from mafia wise?
how would you describe your playstyle in say 100 words or less?
Hi, I'm an actual newbie. This is my second game ever unless you count two IRL games where I got lynched D1 in 5 minutes. I read a bunch of games on another forum that got me re-interested in the game

I guess I would be a mechanical player moreso than a reads player or a charismatic leader? I like to think about probabilities and nash equilibria and such. But, I'm not a very good mechanical player as evidenced by my first game here where I, umm, made a fake claim that solved the game for town as scum.
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Post Post #245 (isolation #13) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 1:45 pm

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In post 164, Mohab500 wrote:Scum to town

Theworst
Skitter
Sunshine, mathidino, ofrhz

Everybody else is null
What does this make skitter?
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Post Post #247 (isolation #14) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 2:00 pm

Post by ruru »

Yes!

Mathdino do you often policy lynch as town?
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Post Post #258 (isolation #15) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 2:23 pm

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Oxy seems more diplomatic in this game
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Post Post #259 (isolation #16) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 2:24 pm

Post by ruru »

Oxy why haven't you caught a scum yet?
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Post Post #276 (isolation #17) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 2:58 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 267, Mathdino wrote:anyway i didn't vote you because i didn't feel like pressure would make you more readable

and also i felt bad
I agree SS's entrance was a little bit weird but I think this is weirder

I used this same excuse when I was scum. I think it's a little bit true but I think a town player would try anyway

And I think town!dino plays to win 100%, so the other reason is a bit fishy to me too

VOTE: Mathdino
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Post Post #282 (isolation #18) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 3:13 pm

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How is it bad to lynch an unreadable strong scum player d1
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Post Post #293 (isolation #19) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 3:23 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 287, Oxy wrote:Pretty decent shot scum!dino pushes that wagon on both town!Sajj and scum!Sajj
I can't imagine what SS looks like when she's about to get bussed but I actually feel like I would want to avoid that risk as scum due to her tendency to produce a lot of text
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Post Post #298 (isolation #20) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 3:50 pm

Post by ruru »

[quote="In post 296, Sunshine13"][/quote]

Hmm

I don't townread you either, and I think ofrhz is town

VOTE: Sunshine13
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Post Post #300 (isolation #21) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 4:06 pm

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In post 34, ofrhz wrote:i'm so cute now
Probably at least 50% this
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Post Post #312 (isolation #22) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 4:32 pm

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In post 308, Sunshine13 wrote:I mean if we can’t take your townread seriously, why should we take your votes seriously?
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Post Post #372 (isolation #23) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 7:20 pm

Post by ruru »

Okay I give up on sleeping

@skitter

I feel like AP's roleplay would be increasingly awkward/hard to pull off as scum as the game progresses making him a poor D1 lynch. What do you think?

Do you still think Oxy is town?
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Post Post #403 (isolation #24) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 5:03 am

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VOTE: Draynth
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Post Post #409 (isolation #25) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 5:11 am

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Almost all the reads seemed super generic / possibly faked
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Post Post #410 (isolation #26) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 5:15 am

Post by ruru »

I have to afk soonish but
In post 401, Draynth wrote: MathDino - I like his reasoning for scumreading TW, seems to be thinking about the game in a logical fashion.
This seems like the worst reason to tr Md
ofrhz - The structured approach to breaking down cases and stuff feels super townie (See )
Also seems like the worst reason to tr you
Oxy - I find myself agreeing with a lot of what he's saying here
Huh? Like most of his posts have been super agreeable or explaining what other people said
ruru - seems pretty genuine
xd
Scum

Mohab500 - Lot of posting, lot of fluff.
I don't think it's actually scum-indicative at all for now, more baity than scummy

If I had to fake a readslist I would put Mohab as scum
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Post Post #412 (isolation #27) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 5:18 am

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If oxy is a townread for making sense than how is skitter a nullread even if you skimmed her
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Post Post #413 (isolation #28) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 5:18 am

Post by ruru »

then* ...
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Post Post #426 (isolation #29) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 6:00 am

Post by ruru »

In post 387, pinturicchio wrote:Guys, I got the first freshly baked tinfoil hat theory just for you: scum!Dino and scum!the worst. Enemies of the heir ... beware.
I'm still curious to hear your full reasoning here
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Post Post #430 (isolation #30) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 6:10 am

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:lol:
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Post Post #509 (isolation #31) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 12:40 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 501, ofrhz wrote:- I see Oxy has toned down the LAMIST the game. town++ lmao
Why do you find this town-indicative for him?
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Post Post #516 (isolation #32) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 1:09 pm

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Yeah it's pro-town if he's town but that's not exactly the same thing as town-indicative

I guess I'm wondering who is more likely to tone down the LAMIST, town!oxy or scum!oxy? I'm inclined to believe self-awareness is more scummy than towny and that "writes a post and then deletes it because it felt too awkward" is like a scum trait, having done this like 500 times myself last game

Like he was even a PR last game and still LAMISTed like every other post
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Post Post #518 (isolation #33) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 1:11 pm

Post by ruru »

UglyDuck have you skimmed 1859 yet?
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Post Post #520 (isolation #34) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 1:13 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 517, Mathdino wrote:some players rewrite their posts over and over by default though
I think I'm one of those players too but I still did it
more
as scum
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Post Post #525 (isolation #35) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 1:31 pm

Post by ruru »

I think you may have the wrong duckling
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Post Post #528 (isolation #36) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 1:37 pm

Post by ruru »

Hmm

If SS is scum then ofrhz/TW are less likely to be scum, I think
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Post Post #531 (isolation #37) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 1:46 pm

Post by ruru »

This is a clear departure from your original stance on ducks, pin
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Post Post #537 (isolation #38) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 1:54 pm

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In post 531, ruru wrote:This is a clear departure from your original stance on ducks, pin
Also I kind of want to hear actual reads/analysis because a lot of your posts haven't been too game-related
In post 533, Mathdino wrote:the rest of the newbies from 1859 would probably stay out of my way as scum (also partially why oxy is likely town. scum-him should be buddying me about now since i'm hard townreading him)
?????
In post 388, Oxy wrote:Mathdino is obv!town
In post 335, Oxy wrote:truuuuuuue
In post 270, Oxy wrote:lolol

very nice, dino!
In post 217, Oxy wrote:@mathdino
You can conduct.

You just can't be in the orchestra, yet.
In post 93, Oxy wrote:I like your style =)
In post 88, Oxy wrote:I would love to hear your plan, Dino =)
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Post Post #574 (isolation #39) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 2:45 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 557, UglyDuck wrote:
In post 518, ruru wrote:UglyDuck have you skimmed 1859 yet?
no. Is it really worth my time? I mean I will if I have to, but if it sucks I am gonna be pissed lol
Well, 7 players from this game were in it, so it might help you form better reads

Can you give us your wall on why Md is town? I think I'm most interested in that atm
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Post Post #578 (isolation #40) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 2:54 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 564, AP wrote:Acceptable D1 lynches: the worst/ruru

Acceptable N1 Vig shots: UglyDick/Pintu/skitter (in that order.. I think)
Why isn't UD in your acceptable D1 lynches?
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Post Post #581 (isolation #41) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 3:00 pm

Post by ruru »

I think skitter is a really questionable vig shot btw
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Post Post #590 (isolation #42) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 3:12 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 587, AP wrote:
In post 578, ruru wrote:
In post 564, AP wrote:Acceptable D1 lynches: the worst/ruru

Acceptable N1 Vig shots: UglyDick/Pintu/skitter (in that order.. I think)
Why isn't UD in your acceptable D1 lynches?
Because I'm not SURE he's scum, so I would rather lynch my confident SRs and let the Vig take care of the shaky ones. (and of course, being ugly it's not that hard to see where I'm coming from)
Are you willing to be lynched if I flip green?
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Post Post #597 (isolation #43) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 3:21 pm

Post by ruru »

VOTE: ruru
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Post Post #607 (isolation #44) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 3:32 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 602, the worst wrote:What the actual fuck ruru

AP's reads are terrible and slightly funny, pretend it's not there
Well, he put a very lynchable player in the vig shots and the less lynchable players in the "sure" category

I want to know if he's really sure
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Post Post #616 (isolation #45) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 3:46 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 612, the worst wrote:
In post 607, ruru wrote:
In post 602, the worst wrote:What the actual fuck ruru

AP's reads are terrible and slightly funny, pretend it's not there
Well, he put a very lynchable player in the vig shots and the less lynchable players in the "sure" category

I want to know if he's really sure
In a lot of detail, explain to me why you came to the conclusion that self voting was smart
Apologies if I'm actually gamethrowing? But

1. Something about AP's categories pings me, and his explanation involves me surely being scum
2. I suspect he does not actually want to lynch me or TW
3. I look to test my hypothesis
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Post Post #629 (isolation #46) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 4:07 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 611, AP wrote:OK.. I'll leave now and come back tomorrow. If nobody wants to listen then I'll yield and go back to role-playing and sheeping Mathdino.
But you haven't really explained why you're sure of me+TW

And now I feel like you're avoiding actually playing the game
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Post Post #634 (isolation #47) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 4:16 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 631, AP wrote:
In post 614, pinturicchio wrote:
In post 611, AP wrote:OK.. I'll leave now and come back tomorrow. If nobody wants to listen then I'll yield and go back to role-playing and sheeping Mathdino.
If you're sheeping Dino, why are you voting for one of his locktowns? Or why are you even scumreading one of his locktowns?
I'm going to sheep Dino for ease of mind, not because I think his reads are any better than mine.

There can only be one town leader, and I only offer my hand once. (How do you go from Austin Powers to Gladiator??)

And ftr, I don't think ruru voting herself makes her likely to be town. In fact, she's just admitted she was playing chicken with me to see if I will go all the way with my push. Think about it: Scum wanting to appear daring and not afraid of getting lynched.. or Ton who decided it was a good idea to get mislynched on D1 and possibly get another Townie miclynched on D2? Because, having never played with me before she can never be sure of my alignment from the playstyle or reads I have provided. Think, and let me know what you decide.
But why are you sure of me+TW?
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Post Post #640 (isolation #48) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 4:30 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 629, ruru wrote:But you haven't really explained why you're sure of me+TW

And now I feel like you're avoiding actually playing the game
In post 629, ruru wrote:But you haven't really explained why you're sure of me+TW

And now I feel like you're avoiding actually playing the game
In post 629, ruru wrote:But you haven't really explained why you're sure of me+TW

And now I feel like you're avoiding actually playing the game
In post 629, ruru wrote:But you haven't really explained why you're sure of me+TW

And now I feel like you're avoiding actually playing the game
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Post Post #642 (isolation #49) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 4:48 pm

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In post 641, AP wrote:Ok.. TW was being lol.wagonned on page one, and you came in with your titally ignoring the wagon and trying to divert attention elsewhere. (yet you only saw "one duck" when TW's name didn't even have the word "duck" in it. How could you have possibly missed UglyDUCK was in the game? This is part of why I'm skeptical about him being your 3rd, btw)
Why would you ever think UD is scum then?
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Post Post #666 (isolation #50) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 5:40 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 655, AP wrote:it looks like the two have played together before
Wait did you actually read the iso of me+TW that you told others to read?
It also doesn't explain why HE would interrupt her wagoning. I could see scum.her seeing a wagon being built on a townie and deciding to avoid it, but I don't see why town.TW would interrupt a wagon (and a relatively small one, mind you) on ruru.
???

Like, you're coming up with these things now, but that's like retconning because before you were seriously proposing ruru+TW+UD.

I really want to know why you, in the past, thought ruru+TW+UD was more likely than ruru+TW+not UD
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Post Post #678 (isolation #51) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 6:02 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 666, ruru wrote:I really want to know why you, in the past, thought ruru+TW+UD was more likely than ruru+TW+not UD
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Post Post #682 (isolation #52) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 6:12 pm

Post by ruru »

VOTE: AP
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Post Post #693 (isolation #53) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 6:37 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 683, skitter30 wrote:-> If ruru is town, AP is very, very, very likely town as well. Or, more accurately, I don't think scum!AP posts knowing that town!ruru flips green.
What do you think about the rest of his posts?
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Post Post #694 (isolation #54) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 6:39 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 690, Mathdino wrote:and because multiple people have noted that he's different from 1859
Can you summarize the differences because of everyone from 1859 he kinda feels most similar to me
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Post Post #861 (isolation #55) » Mon Apr 23, 2018 6:21 am

Post by ruru »

is the most questionable reason ever to scumread ofrhz
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Post Post #865 (isolation #56) » Mon Apr 23, 2018 7:03 am

Post by ruru »

@UD

In post 574, ruru wrote:
In post 557, UglyDuck wrote:
In post 518, ruru wrote:UglyDuck have you skimmed 1859 yet?
no. Is it really worth my time? I mean I will if I have to, but if it sucks I am gonna be pissed lol
Well, 7 players from this game were in it, so it might help you form better reads

Can you give us your wall on why Md is town? I think I'm most interested in that atm
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Post Post #869 (isolation #57) » Mon Apr 23, 2018 7:18 am

Post by ruru »

Okay so AP

0. Is an experienced player, as evidenced by (knows the reputation of another player, TW) and the fact that he was bored enough on his main account to make an alt
1. Somehow comes to the conclusion of ruru+TW+UD
2. Votes for TW/ruru as lynches and UD as a vig shot when there's an actual lynch wagon on UD, and TW and I are harder to lynch (also if there's no vig, scum know it and have way less responsibility for their vig votes)
3. When put on the spot, claims he was "less sure" of UD for a reason that should honestly make UD 95% town rather than "less sure scum" if TW+ruru are scum. c.f. I picked up on and I'm new and terrible at this game
4. Evades my questions and none of the above has actually been explained

Is this not super scummy to anyone else like why are we duckhunting?????
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Post Post #870 (isolation #58) » Mon Apr 23, 2018 7:21 am

Post by ruru »

Also please don't put UD on L-1 before we all vote on vig shots
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Post Post #878 (isolation #59) » Mon Apr 23, 2018 7:58 am

Post by ruru »

Ummmmmmm
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Post Post #882 (isolation #60) » Mon Apr 23, 2018 8:04 am

Post by ruru »

Okay never mind actually

Ugh I feel like I really need input from skitter and SS

PE: SS confused you and TW, which is unlikely to happen naturally if there is scumteam with SS + a duck. So I'm like 80% ready to rule out SS+you and SS+TW and this is one of the reasons I think all three of you are not so good lynches today
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Post Post #883 (isolation #61) » Mon Apr 23, 2018 8:04 am

Post by ruru »

I'm actually okay with this now I think

HURT: Mohab500
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Post Post #893 (isolation #62) » Mon Apr 23, 2018 8:17 am

Post by ruru »

Vig shot count
ofrhz (1)
: Mathdino
UglyDuck (1)
: AP
Mohab500 (1)
: ruru
Not Voting (10)
: the worst, Draynth, Sunshine13, UglyDuck, Mohab500, Oxy, skitter30, pinturicchio, Scioness Sajj, ofrhz
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Post Post #894 (isolation #63) » Mon Apr 23, 2018 8:21 am

Post by ruru »

In post 859, AP wrote:VOTE: UglyDuck
Who is your vig vote if UD gets lynched?
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Post Post #913 (isolation #64) » Mon Apr 23, 2018 10:14 am

Post by ruru »

This page is kind of damaging my TR of TW
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Post Post #915 (isolation #65) » Mon Apr 23, 2018 10:15 am

Post by ruru »

That's part of the point of voting I think
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Post Post #916 (isolation #66) » Mon Apr 23, 2018 10:18 am

Post by ruru »

In post 910, skitter30 wrote:
In post 882, ruru wrote:Okay never mind actually

Ugh I feel like I really need input from skitter and SS

PE: SS confused you and TW, which is unlikely to happen naturally if there is scumteam with SS + a duck. So I'm like 80% ready to rule out SS+you and SS+TW and this is one of the reasons I think all three of you are not so good lynches today
Hey I'm around for a bit before my next class. I've vaguely skimmed but I haven't really read past ~page 25.
Okay so I don't TR Md but I think he's kind of a poor D1 lynch because town!Md is really valuable?

Who do you think we should we lynch if not AP or Md

I think I trust you, ofrhz, and SS the most right now

maybe
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Post Post #940 (isolation #67) » Mon Apr 23, 2018 11:17 am

Post by ruru »

In post 920, skitter30 wrote:-> I don't really get the scumreads on ofrhz
Yeah especially Md pushing him without SRing him and saying it's because some of his TRs were saying ofrhz seemed different is like... idk

Especially because I was TRing ofrhz and Md was TRing me? (I understand totally if he thinks I'm a weak player and my reads are likely bad because it's true, but yeah)
-> UD's posting is kinda gross but I kinda don't think it comes from newbscum tbh. It's almost *too* bad. And like too naive maybe? And there's a few of his posts in ~700s (which is wehre I am) that I have trouble seeing coming from newbscum
:lol:

Yeah I'm not strongly scumreading him for it although he seems like a better lynch than ofrhz at least
-> oxy might be scum here tbh. Last time, despite bieng super tunneled, there were some posts that I didnt' really think came from scum. I haven't really seen any posts like that here. I feel like he's almost tyring too hard to scumread ofrhz. I think he might be buddying math. Like I've seen nothing to townread and last time despite being *super tunneled* I saw things to townread, so that's worrying me.
Yeah I have the feeling one of {Oxy, Md} is scum. Probably not both but I don't know? I don't really like their voting either way

Would you be satisfied with flipping Oxy today because I feel like I still wouldn't know what to do with Md if Oxy flipped red and that makes me less interested in lynching Oxy

I'm not sure if that even makes sense though honestly

I have too many null/scumreads
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Post Post #944 (isolation #68) » Mon Apr 23, 2018 11:36 am

Post by ruru »

Grouping by content/player is most readable for me
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Post Post #955 (isolation #69) » Mon Apr 23, 2018 12:11 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 950, Oxy wrote:
In post 949, Mathdino wrote:Don't fall into the trap of thinking scum is on every wagon
UglyDuck could definitely be a radioactive wagon for scum
Are you still scumreading UD?
Are you still townreading Md?
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Post Post #971 (isolation #70) » Mon Apr 23, 2018 1:13 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 957, ofrhz wrote:@ruru/skitter- I kinda feel like Math is town? Like he has a tendency to sheep other people’s reads, which he did last time with ruru and was wrong about (cough cough Math why you do this again), and he was doing that with me. He admitted several times that he didn’t read my posts from last game and didn’t read my posts this game. I don’t think this is out of character for him.
I was actually thinking about that too but I feel like this case is different because
1. Md's town play is heavily based on PoE, sheeping a scumread feels a bit different to me
2. Md replaced into last game under time constraints. He's had all game to form his own opinion on you this time
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Post Post #974 (isolation #71) » Mon Apr 23, 2018 1:23 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 957, ofrhz wrote:What if Math, Oxy, skitter, and ruru are all town? Given this, who should we lynch today? Please discuss (seriously, I’m stuck).
If nobody else wants to lynch AP, then yeah probably Draynth/Mohab I guess

I'm kinda thinking sunshine/pin are somewhat towny now

TW closer to null than before
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Post Post #976 (isolation #72) » Mon Apr 23, 2018 1:25 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 972, Oxy wrote:2. I don't think this takes into account the opinions on meta that Mathdino has shared in this thread and around this site.
Can you be more specific?
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Post Post #979 (isolation #73) » Mon Apr 23, 2018 1:31 pm

Post by ruru »

Town I guess
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Post Post #1026 (isolation #74) » Mon Apr 23, 2018 4:26 pm

Post by ruru »

Hmm, I just skimmed Oxy in 1859 to re-evaluate the LAMIST thing

I'm not really seeing it

Some notes:
0. Wow I got used to this Oxy and that Oxy is more different than I remembered
1. eth0s called him a likely NK relatively early D1, but his posting style didn't change to try to seem more scummy
2. Md lead the game later D1 and obvtowned him, but his posting style didn't change to try to seem more scummy
3. He softed PR in such an obvious way that during the game, as scum, I had a hard time believing he wasn't bluffing specifically to draw the NK as VT. This is pretty much the opposite of trying to get more people to scumread him to avoid the NK
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Post Post #1027 (isolation #75) » Mon Apr 23, 2018 4:36 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 1016, Scioness Sajj wrote:i know you know it already but self-voting is never pro-town.
also what's your test's result?
I don't know. Maybe it was just poor play. I thought it was OK because I'm not getting lynched, but also AP could reasonably predict that I'm not getting lynched, so...

It's the kind of thing where certain responses could be really incriminating, but his wasn't. I don't think agreeing to it makes him not scum though.

I was really hoping to catch him without time to think, so I posted impulsively

I still find his later explanations or lack thereof scummy
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Post Post #1028 (isolation #76) » Mon Apr 23, 2018 4:38 pm

Post by ruru »

If there's actually interest, I think I prefer an Oxy wagon to a Draynth wagon at this point
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Post Post #1029 (isolation #77) » Mon Apr 23, 2018 4:40 pm

Post by ruru »

VOTE: Oxy
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Post Post #1030 (isolation #78) » Mon Apr 23, 2018 4:48 pm

Post by ruru »

Vig shot count
ofrhz (4)
: Mathdino, Oxy, pinturicchio, UglyDuck
UglyDuck (1)
: AP
Mohab500 (2)
: ruru, the worst
Draynth (1)
: ofrhz
Not Voting (5)
: Draynth, Sunshine13, Mohab500, skitter30, Scioness Sajj
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Post Post #1033 (isolation #79) » Mon Apr 23, 2018 5:10 pm

Post by ruru »

Okay so about the vig thing

I'd like to propose the following procedure

1. Someone reaches L-1/intent. In the event of a quickhammer, the hammerer becomes the vig shot
2. They claim. If we don't want to lynch anymore, go back to step 1
3. Probably we unvote, in case of "accidents"
4. Someone reaches V-1/intent
5. They claim. If we don't want to vig anymore, go back to step 4
6. Any random majority players who are around lynch the earlier majority decision (which should be considered final barring exceptional circumstances like an investigative result from the V-1 claim) and end the day. VCA generally based on the original vote, not this one

The reason I propose the first lynch vote should generally be final is that I suspect scum could abuse the system to PR hunt otherwise

So I think it's better if there's no "I changed my mind"
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Post Post #1055 (isolation #80) » Mon Apr 23, 2018 6:40 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 1051, skitter30 wrote:Like so long as no one lolshoots and stays within the general pool, I think we're fine.
The issues I see with this is are:
1. PRs can get shot if there's no ability for them to claim at V-1 (which is like, really bad, almost defeats the point of having a system)
2. Potentially leaks information about vig's identity; no human vig is going to be perfectly balanced
3. We lose the ability to VCA as effectively. We also lose the ability to know for ~sure which NK was scum and which NK was the vig, which makes NKA less useful
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Post Post #1057 (isolation #81) » Mon Apr 23, 2018 6:48 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 1053, Oxy wrote:ruru, you didn't see a change because it was a strategy(lol) i took going into the game, as i said before.
Hmm, but

The more general strategy being "I want to look a bit scummy so I don't get NKed"

I'm trying to figure out how your (D1) play in 1859 aligns with that goal

Like if you're not even in the lynchpool, why didn't you adjust in some other way to look scummier?
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Post Post #1058 (isolation #82) » Mon Apr 23, 2018 7:05 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 1055, ruru wrote:
In post 1051, skitter30 wrote:Like so long as no one lolshoots and stays within the general pool, I think we're fine.
The issues I see with this is are:
1. PRs can get shot if there's no ability for them to claim at V-1 (which is like, really bad, almost defeats the point of having a system)
2. Potentially leaks information about vig's identity; no human vig is going to be perfectly balanced
3. We lose the ability to VCA as effectively. We also lose the ability to know for ~sure which NK was scum and which NK was the vig, which makes NKA less useful
Also

4. The other PRs will know exactly who not to target
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Post Post #1131 (isolation #83) » Tue Apr 24, 2018 6:30 am

Post by ruru »

In post 1124, Scioness Sajj wrote:1&2 - changing the playstyle after being called out would more likely get him killed, though.
Do you mean scum would pick up on the intentional scumminess and NK him? I feel like that's kind of a stretch

Like from our perspective we were also thinking a lot about how to keep a pool of mislynchable players in that game and it wasn't super easy

I think scum are always going to prioritize our PR reads who are also getting townread (which is what we did in that game with Md+Oxy)
Dino also granted Oxy a wifom protection coat, which I hated at that time but yeah it was a good play and actually made Oxy less likely to be nk'd.
Md didn't know his role but

Oxy knows it's A1 or B3

If scum know it's A, he's just getting RBed like happened in the game

If scum know it's B, from scum's perspective (not knowing his exact role) the chances of him being doc saved are very small as only 1/3 of setups have doc and the doc could be him

I don't feel like Oxy should feel safe in that position
3 - tbf you need to take into account when it happened. He was being wagoned and scumread at the time of the claim and I believe he was quite upset.
You had just unvoted him and he had 0 votes on him

skitter was sussing him and eth0s called him top lynch priority, I think that's about it
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Post Post #1132 (isolation #84) » Tue Apr 24, 2018 6:39 am

Post by ruru »

In post 1124, Scioness Sajj wrote: which posts are you referring to?
You can read his iso if you want but basically AP never actually explained why he originally thought UD could be scum according to his TW+UD+ruru theory

Because according to his explanation of the TW+ruru part I would think UD would be very likely town, which makes me think the reads were fabricated

All his explanations involving UD involved present-tense "oh I did some thinking and here is a way that UD could actually be scum" but that's not what I asked for
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Post Post #1133 (isolation #85) » Tue Apr 24, 2018 6:41 am

Post by ruru »

Also hi NSG!
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Post Post #1134 (isolation #86) » Tue Apr 24, 2018 6:46 am

Post by ruru »

Actually I have a question for the more experienced players here

I feel like TW and skitter both tried to derail the vig thing a bit

Is this scum-indicative or do town players just often disagree with it?
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Post Post #1139 (isolation #87) » Tue Apr 24, 2018 6:56 am

Post by ruru »

In post 1135, Mathdino wrote:
In post 1134, ruru wrote:Actually I have a question for the more experienced players here

I feel like TW and skitter both tried to derail the vig thing a bit

Is this scum-indicative or do town players just often disagree with it?
towns are bad and when they hear optimising strategies they think "i'm being manipulated into doing something i've never done before" and reject it offhand

THAT SAID it's something i see more often than random from scum

so i would call it slightly scum-indicative, which is consistent with neither of them being a townread for me haha
Do you also think it is scum-indicative for those two players in particular?
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Post Post #1150 (isolation #88) » Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:03 am

Post by ruru »

xd
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Post Post #1152 (isolation #89) » Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:11 am

Post by ruru »

HURT: Draynth

Vig shot count
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: Mathdino, Oxy, pinturicchio, UglyDuck
UglyDuck (2)
: AP, ofrhz
northsidegal (1)
: the worst
Draynth (1)
: ruru
Not Voting (5)
: Draynth, Sunshine13, northsidegal, skitter30, Scioness Sajj
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Post Post #1153 (isolation #90) » Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:13 am

Post by ruru »

NSG do you think could be designed specifically to make a first impression on you?
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Post Post #1161 (isolation #91) » Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:24 am

Post by ruru »

Is purely random shot even better if you account for PR claims at V-1? I would be surprised

And it must be really hard to model the EV of shooting PRs, so I find the "calculate the EV" thing a bit questionable
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Post Post #1162 (isolation #92) » Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:27 am

Post by ruru »

Also hard to model the EV of making players actually commit to a majority vote for VCA
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Post Post #1166 (isolation #93) » Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:40 am

Post by ruru »

In post 1164, ofrhz wrote:Oxy vs TW feels TvT. Can’t tell if I’m confbiasing but I don’t want to lynch either of those two
What are the indicators of it being TvT to you?
I’m a fan of left shift NSG
Me too
Sheeping skitter on her AP theory - can we lynch in {UD, Draynth, possibly Scioness}
Ughhh
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Post Post #1167 (isolation #94) » Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:42 am

Post by ruru »

We can still vote, we just don't do the V-1/intent/claim thing until after the lynch is decided

If we declared intent to vig before deciding the lynch, people wouldn't know whether to vote their best lynch or second best lynch for vig
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Post Post #1168 (isolation #95) » Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:43 am

Post by ruru »

(Also I suspect there could be infinite loops of people switching their votes around to try to get the best two compromise lynches and other pathological behaviors)
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Post Post #1169 (isolation #96) » Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:53 am

Post by ruru »

I guess I may as well mention this now too

If there's no vig then claiming at intent on D1 is not so good

It's still up to PRs' discretion if they believe they're at enough risk for claiming to be worthwhile. (But I think it should be strictly better than not letting players know at all if they're at intent to vig)
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Post Post #1172 (isolation #97) » Tue Apr 24, 2018 8:15 am

Post by ruru »

In post 1158, northsidegal wrote:
In post 27, callforjudgement wrote:A simple way to see how having the vig is better is that instead of not vigging, you can just get town to vote on the vig kill. That makes it more or less equivalent to a lynch (except that if the vig themself is voted as the vig target, they can shoot someone else, thus giving town a bit more of an edge).
In post 28, mith wrote:Yeah, that's another good way of looking at it (though that plan is actually demonstrably worse than letting the Vig make the decision randomly, if it's followed strictly; it tells Mafia who is likely to be killed, so they can kill someone else and avoid doubling up on a townie, and it also tells Mafia who the Vig is as soon as they don't die).

(If I weren't so busy, I'd put something together to calculate the EV of that. Actually might be an interesting setup to run, just having that as a weakened Vig role.)
Also this whole thread now that I read it was about a hypothetical 1 vig + N VT setup. So I don't think mith is contradicting the real-world plan in a game with other PRs?
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Post Post #1207 (isolation #98) » Tue Apr 24, 2018 4:47 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 1199, northsidegal wrote:perhaps?

{nsg}
{ruru}
{sunshine13, skitter13}
{Mathdino, AP, Oxy}
{UglyDuck, , pinturicchio, ofrhz}
{the worst}
{scioness, draynth}
What do you find scummy about TW?
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Post Post #1275 (isolation #99) » Tue Apr 24, 2018 11:46 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 1240, Oxy wrote:When AP was casing him, he did that little passive aggressive wall response (which he later said wasn't passive aggressive). That was the most confrontational he has been this game. I was considering that it might be added confidence and comfort - ofrhz letting his hair down and relaxing - but last game he had that whole, "excuse me for being blunt, but that was a stupid question" post. And here, there is none of that.
There were a lot more stupid questions in 1859 though, like D1 in that game was actually awful I think
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Post Post #1276 (isolation #100) » Tue Apr 24, 2018 11:49 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 1244, Mathdino wrote:okay so we vig ofrhz for saying he'd self-vote at L-1
this effectively claims VT and fucks up potential VCA
remember that he witnessed the falls of drixx and skitter, and me telling skitter she spewed too much
i think town-him... idk learns the lesson second-hand?

while scum-him isn't careful about spewing/not spewing his role

so ofrhz is a high equity vigshot
I kinda think ofrhz is a poor vig shot

If there's a vig and ofrhz is scum, I think he would be leaving the option to vote Oxy open (unless they're actually both scum) as he's likely to die tonight if there is actually a vig. Like scum!ofrhz has to push 2 scumreads today to live if there's vig, not "let's lynch someone in this pool and then shoot me tonight I guess"
If there's no vig, then scum!ofrhz is more likely, but hurting him won't get him shot

So I'm thinking D2 if there's no vig (or if we lynch Oxy and he flips red) then there's much better reason to suspect ofrhz than there is right now? And we may as well wait for that information
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Post Post #1277 (isolation #101) » Tue Apr 24, 2018 11:55 pm

Post by ruru »

@UD


Can we see the towncase wall on Md+TW yet?
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Post Post #1305 (isolation #102) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 10:28 am

Post by ruru »

In post 1279, UglyDuck wrote:1) ruru. Huge change of mind on this I know. Whatever, hold it against me. content plus ideas about vig claim tactics (regardless of their usefulness) seem super Towny.
I'm not sure what to think about this

On the surface I kind of want to sr this but I guess can see from someone who hasn't played with me before why my earlier, less serious posts were less town-indicative than my more recent ones. (Compared to the people I have played with before, where me not being a nervous wreck is probably the strongest towntell)

So umm

What makes you think I didn't pick a setup without a vig and then push the D1 viglynch idea to PR hunt?
2) Math - at this point I just don't see why skum would put themselves out at much as much as they have been. At first it was whatever, talky-talky, but now it has been more directed. Personal Predisposition- I don't like when players reference other games, but outside of that.. just everything seems to be towny. Obv a flip will show more, but I don't see a point in even considering this today.
Could you skim this (his most recent scumgame last I checked) and tell me if it's still AI for Md? Like I'm not asking you to sr him but I feel like posting a lot / directing town and posting in favor of mechanically correct town play are both NAI for him so there should be other reasons if you're strongly tring him
3) TW - Pretty much the same as Math. The bummer set up would be if it was TW!Math because we all would just lose. But still, don't see a point in considering this before a flip.
But
why
? Is the appearance of high effort town-indicative, especially when the player is experienced?

What do you think of TW opposing the viglynch idea?

You recently said TW was acting defensive, and that scum are more likely to be defensive than town, and implied that his defense was fallacious. Did that damage your TR of him at all?
Tomorrow - whatever, we can re-evaluate i guess, but I just don't get it today.
This feels a bit hedgy. Do you think we will likely have more information on live!Oxy tomorrow, compared to any other player in the game?
3) Skitter - The perfect middle. Makes me lean skummy, but null for today.
What do you think about her suggesting vig should shoot without the target claiming?
1) Draynth - While I feel Skum would normally be more apparent when so many drivers are present in the game, I can't get over the timing of their reactions. Everytime they come up in conversation they then come into the game. I suppose this is what lazy town would do as well, but just their overall demeanor feels off.
Isn't this also a bit true of you though? (But, I do agree)

Like I don't really like that there was a big post promised on Md+TW and I had to ask about it a few times after the wagon on you died down
2) ofhrz - There is just skum here. pushed me super hard - like forever. Has literally found every avenue, even ones I haven't responded in, to find skum reads on me. The fact that (shame to point admitted), their skum pool equals exactly the people lurking thus far in the game is super skummy. And also, the vote me, unvote me, vote me again thing just feels skummy. If it was one, and then a stay, that would be one thing, but to jump off to jump back on when there is another wagon just feels like skum trying to make a TvT wagon scenario.
What do you think about my reasoning in ? In particular, ofrhz defending Oxy
3) Sunshine - There whole bit with me felt off. The response felt off. Them pinging me on whatever the eff "laser theory" is was also weird. Still don't really get it, but it doesn't matter... D1 reads area D1 reads. You get them how you get them. To call them out in their fashion seems over aggressive from an otherwise non-aggressive player.
I keep going back and forth between "scum probably wouldn't do this" and "this is scum LAMISTing" on him

Like his first posts were clearly designed to let me know he'd read my meta for example

His tone sometimes reminds me of scum!me

I kind of want to see him use his vote more tbh...
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Post Post #1414 (isolation #103) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 5:23 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 1410, Mathdino wrote:NSG posts or perishes down the line. remember activity isn't alignment indicative but it's the only way to produce readable content from her. kinda wish i could give you guys a guide on how to read her lol
people always get it wrong after i die
VOTE: northsidegal

Let's do this now then
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Post Post #1417 (isolation #104) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 5:27 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 1415, the worst wrote:Let's not.
Why not?
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Post Post #1432 (isolation #105) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 10:21 pm

Post by ruru »

Hmm

I kinda think Md might be town (prompted in part because seemed town-motivated) and ofrhz might be scum now

I don't like ofrhz's latest conspiracy theory, it feels forced and I feel like he's not really a conspiracy theory type and it kind of directly contradicts some of my reasons for not wanting to vig him, and vigging him seems mechanically correct

And I guess ofrhz's flip would also help sort Oxy

So... I guess I'm here now too?

VOTE: Draynth
HURT: ofrhz
In post 1429, the worst wrote:If she's scum we can lynch her :]
This statement feels a bit scummy to me honestly
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Post Post #1435 (isolation #106) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 10:29 pm

Post by ruru »

Vig shot count
ofrhz (5)
: Mathdino, Oxy, pinturicchio, UglyDuck, ruru
UglyDuck (2)
: AP, ofrhz
northsidegal (1)
: the worst
Not Voting (5)
: Draynth, Sunshine13, northsidegal, skitter30, Scioness Sajj
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Post Post #1441 (isolation #107) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 10:55 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 1436, the worst wrote:do you think I'm her partner trying to get her into the next day phase? or do you think I'm town trying to set her up for a mislynch by recommending against her lynch?
i'd like a response to this plz
I didn't have a specific situation in mind

It's more like
1. We don't know who's scum. If Md is town and gets NKed, we lose a lot of ability to sort NSG. So just kind of not being worried about that is weird to me I guess
2. I would worry about any specific scum player getting harder to lynch as the game progresses. The most likely outcome of D1 is generally lynching town, meaning the ratio of scum:town will probably be higher on D2, and we need majority vote to lynch. So saying we can "just" lynch someone is also weird to me because scum are also trying to win
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Post Post #1442 (isolation #108) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 11:05 pm

Post by ruru »

@UD thoughts on while you're here if you don't mind?
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Post Post #1446 (isolation #109) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 11:47 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 1443, the worst wrote:Interesting... I think scum are easier to lynch later. My experience with d1 lynches when town hasnt been so hot.
I think so too, but I also think to lynch a specific scum player is harder as scum's influence grows (in other words, I think scum are more likely to get lynched, but it is easier for them to control who gets bussed).

Playing as scum I tend to think "ok who do we mislynch today"

Playing as town so far I tend to wonder things like "what if X is actually scum and we let them live today and majority never agrees on it later and they just barely live"
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Post Post #1461 (isolation #110) » Thu Apr 26, 2018 10:07 am

Post by ruru »

In post 1458, Mathdino wrote:the fact that town is capable of having shit reads on me doesn't mean it's not a scumtell

the behaviour is more likely to come from scum straight up

and who says he's not the designated nullscumread from the entire scumteam

if i were scum with him he'd be the designated bus imo
Do you think scum would be bussing today?
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Post Post #1463 (isolation #111) » Thu Apr 26, 2018 10:35 am

Post by ruru »

In post 1449, Draynth wrote:Anyway, Oxy is scum

VOTE: Oxy
Who else is scum?
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Post Post #1464 (isolation #112) » Thu Apr 26, 2018 11:05 am

Post by ruru »

In post 1459, Sunshine13 wrote:Oxy's scum. This has a lot to do with the oxy tunnel around pages 34 and 35, and an apparent unwillingess to consider they're mistaken.
I don't think the last part is scum-indicative for Oxy, for the record; he tunneled pretty hard in 1859 as town

I do think his reasons for tunneling in this game are super weird / often not really looking for actual scum motivations if that makes sense
Also sheeping math at every opportunity, as well as weird circumstantial stuff around thinking TW is scum. It would be unlikely if he's scum for math to also be scum.
But Oxy thinks Md is town. What's weird about this?
Draynth hasn't posted much, so he's proper null like, and I'm iffy on what to do with lurkers. Good D1 lynch, sure, since it's early days and if they're town we're not hit too hard, also limits the scum's ability to push them as a mislynch later, but we also rather lose the ability to vca and such because there's nothing to go on.
Willing to lynch Scion, too, but not Draynth.
Is SS higher info than Draynth in your opinion?
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Post Post #1466 (isolation #113) » Thu Apr 26, 2018 12:03 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 1465, Sunshine13 wrote:He seems to be working from the conclusion backwards and is pushing for evidence to fit that, ignoring anything to the contrary.

It’s like me from 3 years ago :igmeou:
Why do you find this scum-indicative rather than inexperience-indicative?
In post 1464, ruru wrote:
Also sheeping math at every opportunity, as well as weird circumstantial stuff around thinking TW is scum. It would be unlikely if he's scum for math to also be scum.
But Oxy thinks Md is town. What's weird about this?
This is probably a cultural thing but not something I can back down from. Math has said he hasn’t been entirely forthcoming with his reads so far, but Oxy has sheeped him anyway. Oxy can also claim it wasn’t him that got it wrong if any of his sheeped reads are incorrect.

It’s basically lazy play and not something I would expect from someone who appears more than willing to push players for content.
Sorry, I wasn't clear

I was asking about the second part. If Oxy thinks Md is town, and Md+TW is an unlikely scumteam, why is it weird for Oxy to suspect TW?
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Post Post #1494 (isolation #114) » Thu Apr 26, 2018 3:27 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 1493, Oxy wrote:skim
Thanks to UD my brain gets all confused trying to parse this word now
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Post Post #1522 (isolation #115) » Thu Apr 26, 2018 5:12 pm

Post by ruru »

skitter, how are you reading TW?
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Post Post #1563 (isolation #116) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 9:37 am

Post by ruru »

In post 1560, skitter30 wrote:How are you reading scioness?
Very town, especially now
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Post Post #1564 (isolation #117) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 10:06 am

Post by ruru »

I have this problem where I don't like Oxy's reasons for sring ofrhz but I think ofrhz is scummy

And I don't like people's reasons (except skitter and ironically Draynth I guess) for voting Oxy but I think Oxy is scummy

Also Draynth is actually doing nothing except trying not to get lynched

I think my vote is staying on Draynth at the very least until he posts reads other than Oxy
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Post Post #1573 (isolation #118) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 11:30 am

Post by ruru »

In post 1570, skitter30 wrote:
In post 1560, skitter30 wrote:I'm low-key beginning to wonder if I've read the oxy/math dynamic wrong, and that it isn't scum!oxy buddying town!math, but scum!math pocketing town!oxy.
@ruru - what do you think of this?
I could kind of see this although I think Md has been more towny as the deadline approaches whereas I would normally expect the opposite if he were scum I guess?

Also do you think Md posts the quote in if he's scum and Oxy is town?

(Also I think buddying is not really scum-indicative for Oxy and I know he thinks highly of Md out of game)
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Post Post #1576 (isolation #119) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 11:39 am

Post by ruru »

I mean your behavior right now seems super not town, but suppose you're town and you flip tonight

I think people will read it
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Post Post #1607 (isolation #120) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 11:29 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 1582, skitter30 wrote:A lot of math's recent posts are actually scum-pinging me; I don't think he's become townie as we approach deadline.
Aside from Oxy-related posts which recent posts pinged you?

Also I just realized something else interesting about Oxy, which is that he hasn't acted paranoid at all of me this game. Which is kind of weird because I was obvtown to him last game too. Like I would kind of expect him to rvs or interrogate me early this game

Surely I'm capable of faking the first 2 pages as scum based on things I learned last game? (And I actually was faking it; I was super nervous people were going to scumread me again for personality/NAI reasons, made a conscious effort to towntell, and didn't actually feel any genuine self-confidence in this game until almost everyone obvtowned me)
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Post Post #1630 (isolation #121) » Sat Apr 28, 2018 9:27 pm

Post by ruru »

Interesting, I read as likely coming from a town player guessing that ofrhz could be scum with SS and seeing whether he was actually willing to lynch her, although actually I think Md agreed to ofrhz+SS being unlikely together so nvm about that? I guess that was my main reason for thinking he's town so hmm

I don't agree with , or at least in my scum game I tried super hard to address everything people asked me, although I do think it's an okay reason to consider someone a higher EV wagon so I'm not going to call it scummy
In post 1623, skitter30 wrote:I dislike how he said he needs NSG to post, you vote her and he tells you that voting her won't pressure her to post in an AI way, and then votes her to pressure her to post so that he can read her.
What's the scum motivation here specifically?
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Post Post #1641 (isolation #122) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 3:23 am

Post by ruru »

So, it would be really nice to have more content from Draynth/NSG before the deadline

Seeing as that may or may not happen, I'd like to propose we put ofrhz at intent to vig now

I doubt anything else is going to change ofrhz being the vig shot anyway? Unless like someone scumclaims during the eod wagoning

So I don't see a big downside to ofrhz hardclaiming nowish (if he is a PR and believes there is enough risk of a vig existing and shooting him for it to be worthwhile). And there are a lot of logistical benefits to it being officially decided with more than 24 hours left in the day
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Post Post #1643 (isolation #123) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 3:48 am

Post by ruru »

I feel like it's long past morning in Ireland so I actually give up on this I think

VOTE: Oxy
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Post Post #1726 (isolation #124) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 5:06 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 1703, Mathdino wrote:town but i fucked up recently by not catching her D1 under her geriatric alt
so i'm wary given that people seem to worship my ability to read her
I really don't like this
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Post Post #1728 (isolation #125) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 5:51 pm

Post by ruru »

I guess I don't understand why he's saying it now rather than earlier and it feels like he's trying to undermine his tr because he's "only" 10/11 at reading her on day 1 or something? Which is still super good and should be enough to make her one of the towniest players in the game if he's town

I also think the slot is super likely to be town after rereading mohab

Like suppose mohab is scum

Why would he make that post after deciding to replace, that make his slot look worse if his replacement continues to not want to lynch Oxy (because a town replacement is more likely to change reads than a scum replacement whose reads had a necessary strategic purpose)?

Why would town have to tell him about replacing, rather than talking about it in PT

And suppose the whole "I forgot about replacing thing" was faked, probably after discussing the best exit in PT? Then why would he still make the other post
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Post Post #1732 (isolation #126) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 6:57 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 1729, ofrhz wrote:I think if Oxy is town, skitter is slightly more likely to flip scum. She feels towny aside from what I just pointed out
UD is still scummy imo
I suppose I could see scum!skitter with scum!UD not reading daytalk; it's always easier to lie when the lie has basis in reality

I don't like her timing on voting Md and I think I don't like it regardless of Oxy's alignment, but still townleaning both of them
(skitter, Scioness) could be a thing if you look at their posts in ISO
Which interactions should we be looking at specifically?
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Post Post #1738 (isolation #127) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 9:24 pm

Post by ruru »

Can you at least post up to date reads?
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Post Post #1749 (isolation #128) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 9:49 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 1740, Mathdino wrote:You're softclaiming pr already
I don't see why it's beneficial to specify the role in this situation

Specifying the role allows scum to tell, in 2/5 cases, whether it's VT fake softing a role outside the setup or not
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Post Post #1751 (isolation #129) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 9:50 pm

Post by ruru »

VOTE: Mathdino
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Post Post #1756 (isolation #130) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:00 pm

Post by ruru »

I'm scumreading you because BoP

I think town!Md would not ask for a soft claim to become a specific role claim on d1 in this setup
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Post Post #1757 (isolation #131) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:02 pm

Post by ruru »

Like is there an explanation for your play I'm not getting?
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Post Post #1759 (isolation #132) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:05 pm

Post by ruru »

Do you see why in this situation I consider a specific role claim to be extremely antitown?
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Post Post #1761 (isolation #133) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:07 pm

Post by ruru »

Then what were you asking for
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Post Post #1765 (isolation #134) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:12 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 1760, Mathdino wrote:What? I didn't ask for a specific role claim wtf
In post 1762, Mathdino wrote:This post was made before I registered that he was basically hardclaiming not VT
If you didn't do the thing, then why are you justifying why you did it?
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Post Post #1768 (isolation #135) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:28 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 1767, Mathdino wrote:I thought he was dragging out what would eventually be a vt claim
?????
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Post Post #1771 (isolation #136) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:29 pm

Post by ruru »

He softed pr many pages ago
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Post Post #1773 (isolation #137) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:30 pm

Post by ruru »

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Post Post #1774 (isolation #138) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:31 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 1769, Mathdino wrote:I thought he was stalling because he was scum
Why would you assume scum would claim VT?
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Post Post #1777 (isolation #139) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:39 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 1774, ruru wrote:
In post 1769, Mathdino wrote:I thought he was stalling because he was scum
Why would you assume scum would claim VT?
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Post Post #1780 (isolation #140) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:45 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 1767, Mathdino wrote:I thought he was dragging out what would eventually be a vt claim
In post 1769, Mathdino wrote:I thought he was stalling because he was scum
So he was a scum player

And he was stalling for time that he would use to... claim VT?
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Post Post #1784 (isolation #141) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:00 pm

Post by ruru »

brassherald: Is the extension happening?
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Post Post #1785 (isolation #142) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:02 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 1782, the worst wrote:I probably need ruru, skitter and uglyduck to join me on Oxy here.

sajj & Orfhz it's probably mechanically realistic to join me but you do you.
The issue is that Oxy became an extremely towny player on the last couple pages
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Post Post #1788 (isolation #143) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:06 pm

Post by ruru »

I meant because I don't think Oxy+Md are a scumteam
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Post Post #1789 (isolation #144) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:07 pm

Post by ruru »

And like whatever random d1 reads which are probably awful anyway are pretty inconsequential to me compared to Md's last couple pages
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Post Post #1797 (isolation #145) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:30 pm

Post by ruru »

The instant you say/think that, nk wifom begins
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Post Post #1798 (isolation #146) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:32 pm

Post by ruru »

Lynching him isn't going to be easy if he's town and we have up to 3 less town players

I believe all current competing wagons are on town except possibly the ofrhz vigwagon
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Post Post #1799 (isolation #147) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:33 pm

Post by ruru »

if he's scum*
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Post Post #1803 (isolation #148) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:37 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 1792, the worst wrote:if Math is town he's infinitely more valuable than Oxy (no offence Oxy, Math is one of the best town players on site)
If he's town he wouldn't ask a pr to claim on d1 in this setup.
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Post Post #1804 (isolation #149) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:38 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 1801, the worst wrote:1) math is never the n1 kill here come on
Okay, good point
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Post Post #1808 (isolation #150) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:41 pm

Post by ruru »

In any setup other than this, okay

In this setup?
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Post Post #1810 (isolation #151) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:45 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 1749, ruru wrote:
In post 1740, Mathdino wrote:You're softclaiming pr already
I don't see why it's beneficial to specify the role in this situation

Specifying the role allows scum to tell, in 2/5 cases, whether it's VT fake softing a role outside the setup or not
Scum can claim without getting CCed, so making scum claim a specific role on d1 doesn't help much

Almost half of VT fakeclaims instantly out themselves to scum by claiming a specific role

I am like 99.99% sure Md is aware of this because he studies setups
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Post Post #1813 (isolation #152) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 12:02 am

Post by ruru »

Yes
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Post Post #1815 (isolation #153) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 12:03 am

Post by ruru »

I'm voteparking
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Post Post #1817 (isolation #154) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 12:07 am

Post by ruru »

I mean I didn't even talk about AP after everyone disagreed with me

But this is like so super objectively scummy I don't understand how Oxy is even close
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Post Post #1821 (isolation #155) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 12:12 am

Post by ruru »

Considering I had to explain it, I'm guessing he thought nobody would notice?

If you don't believe me on this reason alone read his answers to my questioning. There's actually so much backpedaling
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Post Post #1822 (isolation #156) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 12:13 am

Post by ruru »

And "I knew Draynth would claim VT" is not what a town player says when lynching probable scum
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Post Post #1824 (isolation #157) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 12:16 am

Post by ruru »

I will definitely at least strongly suspect him in that case
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Post Post #1825 (isolation #158) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 12:17 am

Post by ruru »

I honestly find it incredibly hard to believe Md will flip green here
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Post Post #1831 (isolation #159) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 1:01 am

Post by ruru »

Five votes are currently on a PR claim

Unofficial Votecount

Draynth(5)
~ (87), (216), (56), Orfhz, AP

Mathdino (5)
~ skitter30, ruru, pin, tw, Draynth
Oxy(2)
~ (50)
ofrhz(1)
~ (81)
Scioness Sajj(1)
~ Mathdino


Players dead:

Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2018-04-30 16:45:00)
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Post Post #1832 (isolation #160) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 1:02 am

Post by ruru »

Lynch the dinosaur
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Post Post #1841 (isolation #161) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:01 am

Post by ruru »

In post 1837, Oxy wrote:Doesn't this only imply MD is scummy in a world where Draynth is likely to fake claim PR as VT at the deadline?

Wouldn't that be kind of game throwing from town!draynth?

What am I missing?
I think Draynth is currently doing town a service if he is VT

Suppose Draynth is VT, someone else hardclaims PR tomorrow, and he is alive. He can hardclaim VT at that point to avoid a situation where 3 PRs are claiming (which would bait the actual third PR to out), so it doesn't hurt town

If you trade VT!Draynth getting mislynched today for VT!Draynth getting mislynched (for lying) tomorrow, not much was lost, and it's not even guaranteed he would get lynched for lying. VT getting lynched is maybe the typical D1 outcome, but it's not an above average outcome

If VT!Draynth gets NKed, then obviously town gained a lot
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Post Post #1843 (isolation #162) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:19 am

Post by ruru »

I think this is all fairly specific to the fact that scum can't be cced in this setup without a massclaim. Otherwise, claiming specific role would be pro-town and anyone not doing it would be suspicious

I guess in the game theoretically perfect game d1 claims are mostly irrelevant in this setup?

I do think it's extremely risky for scum to attempt in real life because real life towns are going to lynch liars more often than not (and not everyone is going to see the game the way I'm seeing it)
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Post Post #1846 (isolation #163) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:29 am

Post by ruru »

In post 1835, Scioness Sajj wrote:
@mod replace me out, please.
I hoped to play a game with SS-that-I'm-not-trying-to-mislynch :(
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Post Post #1848 (isolation #164) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:34 am

Post by ruru »

In post 1845, Oxy wrote:
In post 1843, ruru wrote:I think this is all fairly specific to the fact that scum can't be cced in this setup without a massclaim. Otherwise, claiming specific role would be pro-town and anyone not doing it would be suspicious
I haven't played a closed setup yet

but I bet VT's don't claim PR to save themselves from the lynch.
I think roles can be cced (e.g. "there are probably not 2 cops in the setup") and also flavor mistakes can make fake claims suspicious

I haven't played closed setups myself but I've seen fake claims (especially ambiguous soft claims) from VT in them, especially d1

The difference in this setup is scum picked the roles so they know exactly which roles can't be cced. That is highly unusual
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Post Post #1851 (isolation #165) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:37 am

Post by ruru »

In post 1833, northsidegal wrote:Would rather not
Do you still think Draynth is a better lynch?
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Post Post #1857 (isolation #166) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:47 am

Post by ruru »

In post 1848, ruru wrote:I haven't played closed setups myself but I've seen fake claims (especially ambiguous soft claims) from VT in them, especially d1
I also saw a fake cop claim as VT d1 by a skilled player in an open setup. Supposedly this only works if the actual cop waits until at least d2 to cc (which is supposedly the correct cop play, since getting a night of investigative results is a lot better than outing d1).

(This one is probably -EV unless you know all the players in the game?)
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Post Post #1858 (isolation #167) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:51 am

Post by ruru »

In post 1852, pinturicchio wrote:Oxy, Draynth was at L-2, he was never at L-1. You were at the exact same position, are you acting against your wincon for not claiming at L-2?
I think he was at L1 at some point but was afk at the time
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Post Post #1862 (isolation #168) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:56 am

Post by ruru »

Oh right that was you
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Post Post #1863 (isolation #169) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:57 am

Post by ruru »

And AP spread the myth that Draynth was at L1 before that
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Post Post #1881 (isolation #170) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:26 am

Post by ruru »

In post 1874, Oxy wrote:if draynth is a pr, there are 3 scum in {the worst, ofrhz, skitter30, sunshine}
Why?
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Post Post #1885 (isolation #171) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:36 am

Post by ruru »

@ofrhz

In post 1732, ruru wrote:
(skitter, Scioness) could be a thing if you look at their posts in ISO
Which interactions should we be looking at specifically?
When you have time I'm interested in this
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Post Post #1888 (isolation #172) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:42 am

Post by ruru »

Sunshine do you think Md+Oxy is plausible?
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Post Post #1959 (isolation #173) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 12:46 pm

Post by ruru »

UNVOTE:
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Post Post #1961 (isolation #174) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 12:52 pm

Post by ruru »

:oops:
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Post Post #1972 (isolation #175) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 1:28 pm

Post by ruru »

skitter, what do you think about SS's replace out?
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Post Post #1976 (isolation #176) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 1:35 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 1974, skitter30 wrote:Got the vibe she was busy irl and didn't have time for this given how much she'd been on v/la and how she never really caught up
so NAI?
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Post Post #1982 (isolation #177) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 1:57 pm

Post by ruru »

Is tw's trajectory on Md weird
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Post Post #1983 (isolation #178) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 1:59 pm

Post by ruru »

I actually thought he might be bussing at the time
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Post Post #1987 (isolation #179) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 2:08 pm

Post by ruru »

The whole "you two are my top townreads" + "why did I listen to a case based on setup spec" feels like avoiding responsibility

I got the sense that he didn't really read the first time though so that could explain why his vote was relatively late
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Post Post #1990 (isolation #180) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 2:10 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 1985, skitter30 wrote:NM is pl-worthy though.
Can you fill me in? Is it just because he claimed scum?
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Post Post #1994 (isolation #181) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 2:14 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 1989, the worst wrote:You two are my top townreads and when I was half asleep your case was very convincing and you responded to my questions well.
We just wagoned a PR who's also a really strong town player

Given the information I had, I would do it again, but I still feel embarrassment because the result was anti-town

This could be a personality difference I guess? But like I'm not going to say something like "I was half asleep" after that to avoid responsibility

It's kinda weird
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Post Post #1996 (isolation #182) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 2:16 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 1992, Oxy wrote:
In post 1990, ruru wrote:
In post 1985, skitter30 wrote:NM is pl-worthy though.
Can you fill me in? Is it just because he claimed scum?
It's because he is going to give nothing but one liners and naked votes/lol hammers for the rest of the game.
Wow we lost

Because I think SS was town (pending my reads fully annealing around town!Md I guess, which hasn't happened yet because I'm currently oddly incapable of suspecting you)
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Post Post #1999 (isolation #183) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 2:21 pm

Post by ruru »

Yes, I towncleared you because I was pretty sure Md was scum

I still see you as town, so it seems like I haven't reset yet
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Post Post #2004 (isolation #184) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 2:27 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 2000, Oxy wrote:oh. good.

no one hit her reset button.

You played scum with pin. He is town, yes?
I think so, but not really for that reason
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Post Post #2006 (isolation #185) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 2:30 pm

Post by ruru »

Well maybe somewhat for that reason too

But I'm actually not confident at all metareading him
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Post Post #2008 (isolation #186) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 2:31 pm

Post by ruru »

Probably town
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Post Post #2010 (isolation #187) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 2:36 pm

Post by ruru »

It's like, hmm not exactly that

It's also that some of the things he posts feel too nonsensical to come from someone with a strong scum game?

But I think it requires a strong scum game to give the appearance of trying to solve the game in certain ways that he did, like for example I had no idea what to do in my scum game because I didn't understand very well what I would actually be feeling if I had a town rolecard, only what I thought I would be feeling
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Post Post #2011 (isolation #188) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 2:36 pm

Post by ruru »

Does that make any sense
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Post Post #2013 (isolation #189) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 2:41 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 1525, UglyDuck wrote:random thought:
In a scenario where Player A is Town and they are the majority for the Vig Shot -
a) If there is a Vig - Skum either can push the wagon on a player the field generally believes to be skummy, or they could push a different wagon knowing the vig will likely shoot Player A.
b) If there is not a Vig - Skum can either push the wagon on a player the field generally believes to be skummy, or they could push a different wagon hoping to Pursue player A on D2.

In a scenario where Player A is Skum and they are the majority for the Vig Shot -
a) If there is a Vig - Skum could either bus or counter wagon. But if they know there is a Vig and that their team mate is likely to be shot, why not bus for the town cred?
b) If there is not a Vig - Skum could bus or counter wagon. But since they know there is no Vig in this scenario, I still feel like they would bus because Player A would be the prime candidate tomorrow for a lynch and they would want town cred.

IDK, I am sure I am missing something that literally everyone will call me out on, but this has been my thought as of late.
Since our Vig Canidate did not get run up, it would dictate that whether there is or is not a Vig, that they are not Skum.

If there is a Vig, then they know it, then they push a different player and assume the Vig Shot Canidate gets killed a night.
If there is not a Vig, they know it, then they push another wagon to use the fact Player A is alive the next day against them.

This seems like an unbeatable situation - which makes me suspicious of whoever brought up the Vig (HURT) idea in the first place.

UNVOTE:
I don't think a strong scum player posts this
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Post Post #2015 (isolation #190) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 2:45 pm

Post by ruru »

Like if you're UD and your goal is to convince people to lynch town how does that post convince anyone of anything other than policy lynching you
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Post Post #2020 (isolation #191) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 2:59 pm

Post by ruru »

In post 2019, Mathdino wrote:PRs don't deserve to live amirite

carry on guys
:(
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Post Post #2021 (isolation #192) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 2:59 pm

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In post 2018, Oxy wrote:Playing DA for a moment:
What easier topic is there to fake content about than setup spec and theory? Scum have the same opinion on theory as they do when they are town, no?
Policy lynches aren't really a thing. Not_Mafia is proof enough of that. Would scum!duck really have been worried about that?

@TW What is the disconnect? I'm not trying to be dense. I really don't understand.
Okay he could be super next level scum but I do think he's significantly more likely to be town

And if someone here is super next level scum it's probably Sunshine and not UD?
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Post Post #2026 (isolation #193) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:06 pm

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I guess his posting style doesn't give me any clues as to whether it's faked or not
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Post Post #2028 (isolation #194) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:08 pm

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In post 680, Sunshine13 wrote:I’m super-weirded out by the fact you think a theory post 20 pages back, despite having oodles more content to sr the man for. You could sr him ‘cause I said he was a liar - yes I know ofrhz, you weren’t I accept that now - or ‘cause he thinks you’re other scumpick is town, but no, you choose to do it because of his opinion on what a role should do, which is about as ai as whether or not he smells like fucking fish.

Christ I am literally shaking with rage at how fucking stupid that is.

Just.. fucking wow.

Wow.

I’m going to bed.

The really fucking annoying thing is upon further consideration I can’t fathom how scum!you would be that stupid, so I can’t bring myself to actually vote for you anymore.

I’m also sorry for how I’ve communicated this, but seriously man. Wow. wow.
Like this for example
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Post Post #2031 (isolation #195) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:10 pm

Post by ruru »

VOTE: AP
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Post Post #2034 (isolation #196) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:13 pm

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In post 2027, skitter30 wrote:I'm feeling like he's here and around, but beyond his thing with ofrhz early game, and his thing with oxy just now .... I can't really think of much signficant that he's done this game.

Also sunshine/ofrhz isn't a thing.
Actually hmm, now that you mention it the post I linked feels weird given his general level of stuff-doing?
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Post Post #2037 (isolation #197) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:16 pm

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UNVOTE:
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Post Post #2038 (isolation #198) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:17 pm

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Wait a minute I thought AP was 90% town to you
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Post Post #2045 (isolation #199) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:26 pm

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The problem with AP is that his play actually makes no sense to me from any angle

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