Open 724 - Pick Your Power X/Y [Endgame]

[davesaz]

Good, it wasn't a gambit.

[davesaz]

Town reads on Ircher and Taly.
Weak town lean on Beefster.
Wanna look closely at people on Ircher wagon.
The Janitor possible scum.

[davesaz]

If you're paying attention then it's clear from context.
Further details are better left for much later.

[davesaz]

Iso'd mutantdevle. Overuse of setup spec discussison can lead to telling scum what they need to fakeclaim or who they need to kill.
I will argue against misinformation and misuse of basically correct spec if I see it but otherwise would prefer to leave enough intact to solve later.

[davesaz]

EBWOP I'll argue against dangerous misuse -- harmless misuse should get a pass to discourage discussion.

[davesaz]

Sup Davesaz. You town?

Yes, I'm town.
Is asking people their alignment the worst way to get reads?

[davesaz]

Davez, what did you think of A50's premature claim?

I disliked it, but it was enough to accurately read the alignment I'd be replacing into.

[davesaz]

Iso'd mutantdevle. Overuse of setup spec discussison can lead to telling scum what they need to fakeclaim or who they need to kill.
I will argue against misinformation and misuse of basically correct spec if I see it but otherwise would prefer to leave enough intact to solve later.

Hmm I read this as a scumread.
That's one point off dave but *shrug*

That was gently yelling at mutantdevle to lay off the heavy setup stuff.

Eddie, same goes for you, it's good for you to figure out things for yourself but bad to help scum figure out who has which pr.

[davesaz]

It is correct to say that I haven't said much. It's the beginning of a work week and I'm sneaking in these couple posts by not paying attention to a meeting.

[davesaz]

I'm 9 pages behind, sick with a coughing sneezing thing, and having heavy days of work (from home).
Marking my spot at bottom of page 35.

[davesaz]

Caught up to end of 41. Taly looks town. Long name with lots of complicated ascii art and random words in CAPS looks town.

[davesaz]

Caught up, don't know how much I'll remember tomorrow after the cold meds wear off.
I have not had enough time to devote to actual reads other than the gut towns.
I'll place my vote where it seems to be useful for generating material to read from.
VOTE: The Janitor

[davesaz]

Lalendra;

1)

What makes you comfortable with the

Ircher

vote?

1) I already outlined all my reasons in my catch-up posts.

Would you care to quote yourself and hilight those reasons?
When I read your catch-up posts, I don't see you saying much about Ircher at all.

[davesaz]

@Eddie -- the reads question? That's easy enough to find but I don't mind restating.

Town reads on Ircher and Taly.
Weak town lean on Beefster.
Wanna look closely at people on Ircher wagon.
The Janitor possible scum.

Long name with lots of complicated ascii art and random words in CAPS looks town.

[davesaz]

Wanna explain that read while you're here?

[davesaz]

@lalendra, you quoted but didn't hilight places you state

your

reasons. This didn't add any information. Maybe bold/underline, or trim the post down to the point you're trying to make?

[davesaz]

Mathdino check me on this but Myloninja hasn't done a single thing similar to open 716. Scum here perhaps? Beefster didn't resemble town games either...

[davesaz]

BTW in that same game 716, a mason self voted at one point.
The usual reason for a non-hammer self vote is town trying to slap town with a fish. It's still not good because scum can try the same move, but from non-scientific memory only POV it's more often town than scum.

[davesaz]

I don't like the stall at all.
Iso'd Lovebird, can't find any evidence of town there.
VOTE: Lovebird

That's L-1

[davesaz]

I don't get why lovebird is even possible as town. I could not find any attempt at sorting people, and I have a pretty good record for finding people via that scumtell.
Janitor would be an acceptable alternative wagon. I was there before but the game needed action.

[davesaz]

I have Ircher as strong town.

[davesaz]

Eh, maybe not strong. But still town.

[davesaz]

In 1152, says he's caught up but doesn't have reads. Funny shit right there. 'hey guys I'm active but don't want to commit to reads here. Let me just vote my earlier read that I didn't explain a single word about but it's a very easy vote' (on Janitor).

I was

sick

. My post said so ("after the cold meds wear off"). I

never

lie about RL. Furthermore you should consider yourself honored that I'm trustworthy enough to even try to read the game when sick! I don't replace out.

1489 was a terrrible post, very opportunistic L-1 that is severely underexplained. It gives me the creeps to continue the Love wagon, and I did kinda like Math's defense of Love.

Saying '

game needs action

and

nobody follows me on Janitor

' is also suuuuuper weak because he took 0 action in pushing that himself.

Bold was in response to the state of deadline and lack of motion. When I'm town I get jumpy about deadline with 2-3 days remaining.
Underline is a

complete misrep

-- I never said nor implied that, and furthermore it's bullshit that I'd consider saying something like that.

[davesaz]

can we L-1 lalendra already

Give me an actual explanation of why and I might consider it.
Preferably not just quotes of old posts. Use your own words and make them new ones please.

At the moment the L-2 on obvious scum is the best wagon I see... And we're getting close to the 24 hour mark.

[davesaz]

because lovebird is town, as i already explained in a towncase that you either ignored or didn't respond to

and removing lalendra finally gives us the chance to analyse that wagon and get 5 people off their damn tunnel

plus lovebird can get vigged

This is not an explanation of why Lalendra is scum.

I don't care about your townread of Lovebird. I believe my read more than yours.

[davesaz]

Remember how locktown Jay was, until you lost that game in lylo?

[davesaz]

Show me how lalendra is scum. It's a simple question.

[davesaz]

If you think lalendra is scum, it should be relatively easy to show.
If you think lalendra is town, then lovebird is a better choice anyway.

[davesaz]

I saw Mathdino claim a guilty, and then claim a vig.

[davesaz]

1-shot vig is a great scum choice to try to look town and win at endgame.
Problem is, Mathdino claims to have shot Myloninja because of making friends & enemies, which would be ironic since that's the game I was scumreading Myloninja and Mathdino was townreading him.

[davesaz]

Sorry for your loss. Happened to me writing a linguistics paper, the weekend before it was due, on a Saturday afternoon I was supposed to be going on a date.
My fiance (now wife) was not pleased. The rewrite still got an A, so back to the keyboard plz.

Protip: smaller posts.

[davesaz]

Scummiest first regardless of pr/vt I think.

[davesaz]

Hammer intent.
Do we even need mutant's info?

[davesaz]

Would scum take rb with #1 expecting nobody else to even attempt to get cop? Then have their less useful PR (rolecop) try to get the cop (if there is one) to CC?

[davesaz]

Would you (did you) think to shoot for cop from lower in the order? Has it ever been picked lower?

I agree it's risky, and that scum avoid risk. Slot 1 living to day 3-4 is usually a dead giveaway anyhow.
#inb4scumleaveslot1aliveforwifom

[davesaz]

Not that it matters for this game (or setup) but the discussion on highest draft # ever caught my eye...

The highest draft number by far in a similar game was

3141592653

by Titus, in the double deck game.
She was town and 7 out of 23 in the draft order. Only one of the 3 other people who picked really big numbers was scum.

[davesaz]

work has been busy. Today is a end of school day for my kids.
Janitor is most likely rb.
Agree with using some discussion time. Gotta go.

[davesaz]

I never call someone conf without either a true mechanical clear (result or chain of results from flipped town) or a mod confirmation.
At times there are people I'm willing to accept as town without confirmation, Ircher is now one of those cases.

Borrowing from Ircher's list, with annotations by me.

1: Iconeum (1) - Cop (Confirmed)

Dave says: I don't know Iconeum well enough to meta read but I will say that without a doubt it is possible that scum took cop in position #1 for the express purpose of being able to claim blocked and outlast their RB or JK partner. We don't lynch this first but it doesn't survive to endgame.

2: the worst (3) - Jailkeeper (Confirmed)

3: Lalendra (5) - Role Cop (Confirmed)

4: Ircher (11) - Neighborizer (Confirmed)

5: SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis (413) - VT, Universal Backup/Rolecop

Dave says: I was town reading behavior, but planned to look at voting and reads to see how they correlate to actual events. From pure setup spec I think if there is a RB this slot is more likely, even if that doesn't match with play. Rolecop was already claimed/flipped before this claim, right?

6: Mathdino (2) - 1-Shot Vigilante (Confirmed)

7: The Janitor (2) - VT, Neighborizer

Dave says: scumread on behavior. Only real choice for RB unless we've been fooled by SIMYK.

8: Beefster/Myloninja (4) - VT, Tracker (Confirmed)

9: Taly (4) - VT, Neighborizer

Dave says: strong meta town read based on numerous games

10: Almost50/Davesaz (8)

- VT, Neighborizer

Claim is consistent with play.

Knowing how A50 plays, I was >90% sure this slot was town

before

I replaced into it. A50 would try for neighborizer without a doubt

I say this only to inform you about A50 meta, I know it's irrelevant for me to have that strong a meta read on "myself"
11: mutantdevle (8) - VT, Neighborizer
12: Ausuka (6) - VT, Neighborizer

13: Lovebird (6) - VT, Tracker (Confirmed)

14: brassherald/Eddie Cane (6) - VT, Tracker

I'm not in a position yet to give good commentary on mutant and below.

[davesaz]

Good, it wasn't a gambit.

What wasn't?

If you're paying attention then it's clear from context.
Further details are better left for much later.

A50 claiming neighbor wasn’t a gambit. I paused briefly before replacing in because A50 is known for fake claims and it was a minor gamble to take the slot because I hate being in the position of explaining that.

[davesaz]

Intent on Janitor.
I thought we should lynch there yesterday.

[davesaz]

Saying that town have picked cop 100% of the time they got that pick, and scum picked redirector 100% of the time is nice info but not predictive.
Assuming that a rolecop result of cop -> conf town merely because of the previous games stats is gambler's fallacy.

[davesaz]

[poiler=Dead]Lovebird,

Vanilla Townie

, Lynched D1
the worst,

Town Jailkeeper

, Killed N1
Myloninja13,

Vanilla Townie

, Killed N1
Lalendra,

Town Role Cop

, Lynched D2

Mathdino,

Town 1-Shot Vigilante

, Killed N2

[/spoiler]

[davesaz]

davesaz is lacking some of his inquisitiveness i usually see from town him

If you actually ISO'd me like you claimed, I don't think it's possible for you to have this position.
I can provide quotes as needed.
You did manage to get that RL impacted my game.

[davesaz]

You're looking waaay too late in my iso and cherry picking things that show your point.

[davesaz]

Some questions are stated as statements doubting the truth of things. If you're looking for question marks you're looking at an extreme surface level.

[davesaz]

Ircher, who have you neighborized?

[davesaz]

Bullshit question.
I'm reading it. I'm old and prefer not to search through and read that again.
If you know the answer mr smartass then just give it, and if you don't then back at you.

[davesaz]

I can assure you the question is not random. It's very relevant to solving the game.

[davesaz]

POE was indeed saying to me that Janitor was most likely top scum, at that point in time and gamestate. Sorry that I don't spend unnecessary effort when the next lynch is obvious.

Weak townread on Iconeum that is backed up by mechanically sound claimed actions.

Very strong townread on Ircher. Hooding Taly makes sense. Hooding Ausuka makes slightly less sense but reasonable if the aim was to get someone who would survive. For a moment I thought Ircher might have pulled one on us, as scum neighborizer is fairly powerful. But it just doesn't seem possible that scum would play that way and on top of that do all the iso, VCA, and other extra work, not even deep cover.

Until the replacement had a weak townread on SIMYK, and the slot was generally townread by everyone who had an opinion. Katyusha entrance lowers that to a weak scumread. RB makes sense at that draft order now that the town lean is gone. High probability that scum would choose an outlier number, if the highest "normal" number (Ircher at 11) is town. Scum in that position who are the RB have high motivation to bus a lower partner, especially if said partner has an ace up their sleeve.

The Janitor is the next living draft slot. Before RL today I had townreads on everyone higher, with ongoing tinfoil that Iconeum could be scum cop.
Now let's do some number diving. If I rule out my strong town reads, here's what I get for possible scum team numbers. I'll leave Iconeum in this just in case I die and some other townie needs to figure it out.
1,413,2
1,413,8
1,413,6
413,2,8
413,2,6
2,8,6

Various people are doing a wonderful job of tracking claims.
What we're potentially overlooking is the unclaimed roles.
commuter/watcher
n3 vig / venge

Including the tinfoil for completeness sake we get this set of likely teams, where curly brackets {2,6,8} means pick one
413,2,{6,8} Kat/SIMYK RB+ Janitor +?
2,8,6 Janitor + mutant + Eddie/Ausuka

Tinfoil that we can't ignore until someonflips to prove it wrong: 1,413, {2,6,8} Icon cop+ Kat/SIMYK RB+ ?? goon/n3vig-venge/commuter

If one of the fake VTs is n3vig or venge it could get dicey.
If we lynch someone who isn't a contender for RB at all, it isn't a guaranteed loss but it's close to being that.

VOTE: Katyusha

[davesaz]

Did you read the post?
I stayed up way past my normal bed time on a work night to solve.

[davesaz]

What question?

[davesaz]

2317 though this wasn't really a question. Would have expected some kind of reply however.
2330
2531

Umm, you'd have to be totally ignoring my posts to think that I haven't answered.

[davesaz]

And why is Janitor most likely RB? You think he's nr 1 scum in draft list?

POE was indeed saying to me that Janitor was most likely top scum, at that point in time and gamestate. Sorry that I don't spend unnecessary effort when the next lynch is obvious.

[davesaz]

Why is that the question to ask?

[davesaz]

My response to 2531 was to completely reread the situation and provide a complete list of plausible scumteams and analysis of what they all mean.
I don't know how much more could be asked.

At least one of Ico, Kat/SIMYK, Janitor is scum. With a flip we'll know if it's likely to be more than one.
If it is exactly one of that set then scum got a horrible roll and are still doing really well. Or one of the collective townreads is wrong which I doubt.

[davesaz]

Is anyone getting anything useful out of mutantdevle's stats posts?
Is that really what we were waiting for?
VOTE: The Janitor

[davesaz]

Going by official vote counts only (there could be temporary votes not caught by this scan)

Lovebird was the only player who voted Taly.
Nobody voted SIMYK, but Ircher and I did manage to get votes on Katyusha.
Nobody voted Eddie Cane / brassherald, as far as I can tell.