Open 748: Jungle Republic - Over!

[scum reading]

Hello! I’m the replacement for mcqueen. I had a glance at the first posts and god damn do you guys like to fill up pages pre-game., I don’t even know where the information becomes relevant, re-reading everything is going to be a living hell

[scum reading]

I take it mcqueen was really inactive, but you’re dealing with a different person now, auro. Mcquuen was town, despite what you think. I don’t know what he said that makes him suspicious to you now

[scum reading]

Egix's ISO does show *some* scumhunting (although bad votes) which, from experience with Egix I feel are genuine -- he even takes part in yesterday's discussion questioning why McQueen -- so while he has some scum equity by virtue of not obvtowning as much as town!Egix usually does, I think it's not as much as McQueen does.

Scum hunting doesn’t mean anything in multiball setup, this is why scum have a higher chance of winning. I’d rather base my judgement off of votes.

Here’s a wolf if you were looking for him

VOTE: Egix

[scum reading]

Damn do I really have to check 37 pages of information to try and scum hunt the wolf?... From 2 pages of information and a few quotes, I’m good with my vote on ww Egix. Why is it just me and brass on it? Brass is leading it, wouldn’t it be dumb for a werewolf to bus their team mate right now? There’s no way I’d win by myself. Town block should hop on really quick, there is a variable that is either ww/maf in your town block read, we’ll sort it out once you see the votes on Egix. Also, another argument is that newbies don’t tend to bus their teammates, or at least not that I know of. Would ww me even address this?

[scum reading]

What I know is that brass is confirmed town, town is interested to lynch ww at the moment, are you doubting brass? I’ll admit I hopped on this wagon without looking through this thread, but I trust brass, and so should you, Auro, unless you’re ww yourself trying to divert attention from your cub. (You can take this accusation seriously or not, you know the information and if this accusation makes any sense, I just know there’s no reason for town to have doubts about this, confirmed town is leading it)

[scum reading]

Oh seer confirms non ww, damn, now I have to take into account brass’ probability of being mafia, I’ll go look on that wagon auro keeps bringing. Meanwhile, to multitask, try and accept my role as a town, who’s spot would I take in the town block? Reasoning as well, please

[scum reading]

Auro, don’t take that into account, I got the seer mechanic wrong. I’ll brb, I’ll read 37 pages oof UNVOTE:

[scum reading]

Gut says no, but I'm re-evaluating.

Wolf!A50 would probably favor a lynch to hit seer here, because the seer would be his biggest theat; so my paranoia there has gone down a little bit.

Ok, started reading from 300, I reached 700, this is the only thing that spells suspicious to me. For people that forgot, in this context, Auro was the only one advocating for a lynch. This is what he then says.

[scum reading]

@Jay: Why would no Lynch be beneficial for scum here when lynching 1. Gets rid of a townie and 2. Increases chance of a seer NK?

Again, you were earlier advocating for a no-lynch.

And welcome to this segment of the thread where a theory enthusiast (if that’s even a thing) will present some controversial stuff:

Has anyone considered Auro could be ww? I mean, from what I get, ww obviously know who they are. Now, if I was pushed by Bambi, then obviously this wouldn’t be a bus, like Auro mentioned. Therefore, I must be town (if we’re getting into my scenario for a bit). On that no-lynch day, Auro was advocating for a lynch and taking risks, even though he was presented with statistics, he still thought lynching would be a good idea. A werewolf mentality would be to lynch at that point, as Auro stated, which is exactly what he did, and then 47 posts later he hammers the no-lynch to look town. The no-lynch wagon was gaining momentum, it was obviously a town move and Auro must’ve been really cautious with this. Now, in order for me to be more convincing, I’d have to look at the vote count and deduce whether it would’ve been beneficial for ww to vote a town or a mafia off, but I just think Auro tried really hard to look like town and was afraid he would get spotted as a werewolf, hence why he hammered the no-lynch. No clue on second werewolf, I’ll let you guys talk about this until I finish reading.

[scum reading]

I’m here, what do you mean, I’m catching up, I’ll present my overall townreads and scummies, bear with me

[scum reading]

mcqueen (might be Mafia)

I'll not really fight an Egix lynch since he has > rand scum equity and all his votes seem to be on town (assuming brass is also town)

But I want a McQueen lynch today, the case on him seems stronger.

Potential werewolf buddy here. Still reading. I’m just taking notes as I go along.

[scum reading]

Alright, I won’t read anymore, I’m at page 33, I’ll end it tomorrow

[scum reading]

You’ve been on mcqueen’s ass for days. By the way, that no-lynch vote had scum on it, so don’t declare that a town block in case you were considering your town block is on no-lynch. What was your case against him anyways? Vedith, as far as I’ve seen, was on your ass before he died. Even he suspected you. You followed your agenda of pushing mcqueen like, everyday. Without a reason to do so either. Scum and ww will always post, doesn’t matter how much, they always will. In what world does a werewolf or a mafia not say anything the whole game? Or were you accusing McQueen for something relevant that I didn’t read?

[scum reading]

What is the possibility of that no-lynch having only 3 towns on it? It had 4 if we rule me out. I wanted to scum read roster because of his vote on hydra. The reason why is because he always pushed someone and only after he voted, Bambi comes in and says “Mafia agrees with this” which makes sense, if she were to be the second vote on a wagon and then she was followed up by her mafs, you could easily tell who her mafia members are. This is where talking aimlessly gets you, bambi.

[scum reading]

VOTE: Auro

I’ve explained this. This is a werewolf. He was inconsistent D2 and displaying non-town behaviour. You were presented with statistics which massively favoured town, yet you were advocating to take risks still. That’s not what a town would do.

[scum reading]

I don’t believe Auro is mafia, because just like mafs have someone that talk for them, someone should represent the werewolves as well, and who would better do that than Auro. He claimed in his posts his cases against me where really solid and worth pursuing a lynch on despite not having real information. It’s so easy to pick on the inactive slots, must’ve been an easy time here for you. Let’s see that solid case you have now.

[scum reading]

To read BuJ I only need to look at voting patterns. I didn’t see him on the no-lynch and he doesn’t spell out confirmed town as well to me. Definitely scum, figuring out whether maf or ww will be a hard time. All I can remember is that he advocated a mafia lynch in any given situation. Now do I interpret it as ww behavior, or high level mafia play? I dunno, but I’m sure you’re the ww, so he’s not a concern at the moment.

[scum reading]

To read BuJ I only need to look at voting patterns. I didn’t see him on the no-lynch and he doesn’t spell out confirmed town as well to me

Oh, so you're scumreading BuJaber as well for advocating against a no-lynch. Cool.

Well, yeah? What are you trying to say here? I don’t see the point. He didn’t vote for no-lynch day two, should I look at him as town?

[scum reading]

I don’t believe Auro is mafia, because just like mafs have someone that talk for them, someone should represent the werewolves as well, and who would better do that than Auro.

What sorta logic is this?
"Someone should represent werewolves"
"Who better than Auro?"
"Therefore Auro is wolf and not mafia"

Lolwut?

You’re just addressing the posts that are convenient to you, because you are manipulative. You can’t defend yourself against the inconsistency that I’ve presented. You were pressured to hammer no-lynch to look town. You had an epiphany that town would always advocate for no-lynch and you hopped on the wagon? Took you 40 posts, damn. You even struggled to give statistics and everything and value the risk versus reward when you could’ve just gone for no risk and high reward. That’s townie perspective, except you’re ww, pushing on inactive slots, cuz that’s where scum thrive, being opportunistic.

[scum reading]

^Hi, Egix is still not convinced I'm town with no reasoning.

That post comes from town 0% of the time. It's bad.

Mafia keeping lynch options open.

Exactly.

You say exactly, but are still voting him when you said we need ww killed.

[scum reading]

Well, yeah? What are you trying to say here? I don’t see the point. He didn’t vote for no-lynch day two, should I look at him as town?

I don't care for the votes.
He was against a no lynch, after being offered "statistics" that it was better.

So yeah, it makes him suspicious as well, doesn’t it? I mean, your townies that you were trying to pocket have figured that out, but you haven’t. You were trying to get them on your wagon as well. You were so close to lynching mcqueen, you must be pissed right now. I’ll be back in 30 minutes, interested to see how scummier you can look by the time I get back, I’ll estimate a vote count on you while taking a hot shower

[scum reading]

You guys have to vote between me and auro, we’re the ww slots that are the safest to lynch at the moment. It’s clear that the discrepancy is between us. You have to take that 50/50. You can’t rely on seer because she’ll die tonight most likely. The second werewolf is doing a really great job at staying under the radar though, I give them props. I’m interested to see what you come up with as a second werewolf accusation. Your only shot is this one, the other werewolf is playing really good, I couldn’t figure out a thing, but this no-lynch case I have against auro is definitely way better than whatever case he has against me, which he didn’t mention, just PoE that he didn’t have access to day one when he was pushing, otherwise that would be cheating or getting extremely lucky

[scum reading]

It’s a 50/50 shot, I don’t mind, worst case scenario this is a TvT, in which case we lose. Why is it not townie? Again, misdirection. It’s a reality, it’s not something scum would say. I want people who disagree to point out a second ww and say how strongly their read them as werewolf. It’s clear that the discrepancy is here, there was a scum on the no-lynch d2, A50 is town and is really good with statistics and he wasn’t reluctant to share them or to manipulate them in any way. Brassherald is confirmed not ww and seems townie in my opinion, he also voted for no-lynch. Roster was the first no lynch voter, the only thing that makes me second guess myself is that when he votes, bambi follows up and says “Mafia agrees”, it might just be me being paranoid. If you consider I’m a safer lynch than someone who goes full counter-intuitive and confidently advocates for anti no-lynch and then is becoming suspicious so he has to hammer, otherwise he’d look scummy, go ahead. I understand this slot being pushed since day one is suspicious, but I’m not the same person as mcqueen. You have to listen to scum reading, not to mcqueen. I presented solid evidence, stating facts isn’t scummy by the way, I made town more aware that it is better for them, statistically speaking, to take a 50/50 shot then to look for the needle in the haystack.

Auro, I have one question though, who do you think mafia would have to lynch to have a chance at winning, in your opinion?

[scum reading]

scum reading are you town

I promise I’m town. I even read the thread ffs, you made me waste 1 hour and 30 minutes of my life for nothing. If I were scum, I would just have my werewolf partner tell me who to push and I’d be off the radar. Instead I am trying to lead town to victory, but it is hard given that mcqueen was always pushed by auro and people already have a town read formed on auro, just because mcqueen was afk for the whole game and somehow that makes him sus.

[scum reading]

It’s a 50/50 shot, I don’t mind, worst case scenario this is a TvT, in which case we lose. Why is it not townie? Again, misdirection. It’s a reality, it’s not something scum would say. I want people who disagree to point out a second ww and say how strongly their read them as werewolf. It’s clear that the discrepancy is here, there was a scum on the no-lynch d2, A50 is town and is really good with statistics and he wasn’t reluctant to share them or to manipulate them in any way. Brassherald is confirmed not ww and seems townie in my opinion, he also voted for no-lynch. Roster was the first no lynch voter, the only thing that makes me second guess myself is that when he votes, bambi follows up and says “Mafia agrees”, it might just be me being paranoid. If you consider I’m a safer lynch than someone who goes full counter-intuitive and confidently advocates for anti no-lynch and then is becoming suspicious so he has to hammer, otherwise he’d look scummy, go ahead. I understand this slot being pushed since day one is suspicious, but I’m not the same person as mcqueen. You have to listen to scum reading, not to mcqueen. I presented solid evidence, stating facts isn’t scummy by the way, I made town more aware that it is better for them, statistically speaking, to take a 50/50 shot then to look for the needle in the haystack.

Auro, I have one question though, who do you think mafia would have to lynch to have a chance at winning, in your opinion?

Checking back on this, seer was not on no-lynch either, which would make my theory on roster valid. I believe he’s maf.

[scum reading]

In a setup like this, at a moment like this, you’d honestly believe a newcomer to be as vocal as I am rn being scum? Let’s be real, even if you stick to the meta I don’t come close to being scum. If I had a ww partner, don’t you think they’d want to divert attention at least a little bit from me? This never happened.

By the way, you have 2 people from the compromised no-lynch squad with 2 scums on it voting me. Keeping you updated.

[scum reading]

i made no accusations

Am aware

[scum reading]

The people that said go back to read everything, that would be auro and a few others, wasn’t intended at you, I’m probably just a bit mad, not upset though

[scum reading]

Is it 5 votes majority by the way? If so, before you guys hammer me, I have another theory that I’d like you to hear

[scum reading]

Is it 5 votes majority by the way? If so, before you guys hammer me, I have another theory that I’d like you to hear

Can anyone answer this?

[scum reading]

If I had a ww partner

Why are you persistent on denying "WW" and not "Scum" in general? THis is the second time you refer to your "WW partner".

I find posts like this irrelevant, ww, scum, word choice doesn’t matter. I believe I used both. Overall idea is what matters. Finding loopholes in word choice shouldn’t be a priority..This is what benefits scums, you picking on useless things. I suggest townies should at least remove their votes until you are 100% sure you want to lynch me. Shouldn’t take long for mafia to capitalize on this and vote me, so don’t give them the opportunity.

[scum reading]

Checking back on this, seer was not on no-lynch either, which would make my theory on roster valid. I believe he’s maf.

If this is true then my reads this game have been shittier than they have ever been before. The only good read I had so far was that on Vedith.

It is, you can check it if you don’t believe me

[scum reading]

What if it's Scum Reading and Auro because that gave me real SvS vibes.

Ugh... I hate that this is actually the right move

VOTE: scum reading

If you get SvS vibes, what roles do you assign to each person? Me being ww and him mafia?

[scum reading]

Do you see Auro pushing his buddy day one and drag this whole theatre for so much time?

[scum reading]

What if it's Scum Reading and Auro because that gave me real SvS vibes.

Ugh... I hate that this is actually the right move

VOTE: scum reading

If you get SvS vibes, what roles do you assign to each person? Me being ww and him mafia?

Both WW.

I'm saying that it looked staged. Like if we lynch one, we find a WW and need to go "Hey, they had this fight, why would they both be WW?"

But, it seems fake to me.

This is going at a next level of reasoning behind your voting. Brass could be scum as well actually. Scum thrive in possibility, town in probability. You making this whole case against me seems too much of a desperate attempt to justify your vote. But if you believe it’s a werewolf on werewolf, you’d be alright with lynching Auro as well, right? Except you’re not.

[scum reading]

what is sr at?

I think it’s you and one more, not sure

[scum reading]

Yeah, 2 more votes. Current vc on me: Auro, Egix, Brass.

Also, anyone notice the inconsistency in what Brass believes? Literally like 10 posts earlier he said “we should go for ww” and then he votes egix and now he says it’s a ww on ww scumtheatre between me and Auro and he’s completely fine with Egix being on my wagon. Funny. It’s not like town could win in any situation, either, but with this vote, you’re making your win rate at a solid 0%

[scum reading]

I expected more from you Brass, that’s not even close to a solid defence.
Firstly, you said egix is werewolf, not mafia.
Secondly, in your scenario, you said it’s werewolf on werewolf, so why are you reluctant to vote Auro? Not like it would matter, you catch scum

You are playing with the reality of things, you’re saying this is scum on scum with the reason being “Oh, I’m fine with either lynch, and so should town be” when the probability of this being werewolf on werewolf is so low. Plus, you didn’t touch your inconsistency, I have a solid case and you are mocking me at an attempt to make me more suspicious, but not even your mocking lines were close to being accurate.

[scum reading]

You know what, just realised, there’s no way town ever wins this, unless scum factions mess up big time, which I find unlikely. Game’s lost, might as well hammer

[scum reading]

Check what? I obviously KNOW NOW that the Seer didn't vote NL, so that wasn't what I was talking about. It was the theory that roster is mafia. If ROSTER IS MAFIA then ,y reads have been shittier than they have ever been before.

And you mentioned your WW partner twice. I didn't say you ALWAYS said WW, but your referencing your WW partner twice in 2 successive posts drew my attention, I couldn't help it.

Also, this setup has both scum factions PTs open at NIGHT ONLY (check the setup page) and THAT is what i was referring to as a possible town slip, but you overlooking it (not even exclaiming what is) makes it look more like an attempt to FAKE a town slip (you didn;t ask because you already knew what I was talking about).

Finally, you withholding on some theory and asking us not to hammer because you want to spell it out first is scummy af. It feels like you're grasping at straws to delay the lynch in hopes something happens that changes the current.

Here, let me help you:

VOTE: scum reading

Now you're

@L-1

. Want to share that theory yet?

It was a theory related to votes, but then I saw so many possibilities and I thought I could demonstrate me being town and auro being scum, but I realised I can’t do that. Lost the 50/50.

You will get your question regarding the townie slip answered after I flip, I guess.

Town loses, interested to see how this plays out though, it sure is an interesting game.

[scum reading]

Before I get lynched, I want to see how may people believe brass is a town after my case, really curious

[scum reading]

Do it!

[scum reading]

Someone is just going to steal your hammer at this point, only 1 town is on me at the moment lol, 1 werewolf and 2 mafs, at least claim that hammer, lose with dignity!

[scum reading]

*drum roll*

[scum reading]

But Brass can't be wolf - and if he's Mafia I can't imagine who his partners would be.

Bambi? Roster?

[scum reading]

Can i still post if I was lynched but not taken out of the game yet?

[scum reading]

There's no rule against it I think, still twilight.
You WERE wolf, right?

Nope.

[scum reading]

I trusted the hydra and the hydra hammers me, I thought we had a connection, I felt you town read me for a second

[scum reading]

There's no rule against it I think, still twilight.
You WERE wolf, right?

Nope.

Then *why* did you jump straight to "Vote between me and Auro" instead of critiquing my PoE and considering other slots scum?

Aren’t you ww though?

[scum reading]

There's no rule against it I think, still twilight.
You WERE wolf, right?

Nope.

Then *why* did you jump straight to "Vote between me and Auro" instead of critiquing my PoE and considering other slots scum?

Because town had no clues on ww and then you made sense to be a ww. Guess we’ll see at the end of the game. Not like my comment on your PoE would change anything, I don’t think you’d change your vote, otherwise you’d look scummy? If not me, who would’ve you voted for? You already gave a full case on how I’m ww when I wasn’t even here, so town will tend to listen to you, making this not even close to a 50/50 like I said since town heavily town read you. I was the underdog here and I would’ve gotten lynched anyways

[scum reading]

i feel no remorse

You’re mean-intended, I just wanted to make friends

[scum reading]

Who’s your ww friend, Auro?

[scum reading]

There's also the assumption that the NK would be gated to Mafia (since we have a claimed Mafia) instead of a seer-hunt, which war then a reasonable assumption to make.

Whatever is truly optimal, I don't think it necessarily matters because there were pros and cons to each for every faction, and the decision to support it or not would be a function of that and the gamestate.

Also, BuJ, it doesn't matter much now - we're much closer to a full gamesolve at the moment. All that we need to do now is identify the correct townblock, and then I'll analyze whether we have a sure path of victory. My analysis would be contingent on SR being wolf, which I'm 99% sure of anyway - especially after his forcing a 1v1 with me.

Ajfe is town. BrassHerald is town. I'm town. I need to identity the fourth.
Bambi is Mafia. Egix is prob Mafia.

This leaves {Roster, BuJaber, Almost50} where one's town, one's Mafia, one's WW. I can't see A50 being town here; going by your theory that NL is most beneficial for Mafia (and also Mafia knew this and played to it) I'd be inclined to believe Roster is Maf. If you're town, that would leave A50 wolf.

Do you still think he was right about the no lynch?
You seemed unsure at twilight d2 and I thought you realized you made a mistake. Were you faking?
Because if you are town he should be outed mafia right now

People can be wrong about their logic sometimes is what I think. I've provided an argument as to why A50 would fight for a No Lynch when the pressure was on his wolf buddy McQueen - that's plausible, no?

Not once I flip

[scum reading]

Just because I like to help town, if I flip town, who’d be your accusation for a potential ww? There’s no way you aren’t ww buddy, or at least scum, you aren’t town 10000%

[scum reading]

Brass maf, Bambi maf, roster potential maf, Auro ww, BuJ potential ww, not sure, this is more of a gamble, first 4 reads I’m feeling good with. Let the games begin between maf and ww and I want to see how you’ll suade town after my post, goodluck mafs, townies vote with ww tomorrow. Go for bambi lynch, safest lynch. Pressure brass. *poofs from this hopeless game*

[scum reading]

?? Why is the thread still open??
Also this dialogue between scum reading and Auro looks forced. I wouldn't e surprised if it turns out they were both of the same faction.

When I flip town, Auro’s conftown, ok? Lmao

[scum reading]

Yeah, 2 more votes. Current vc on me: Auro, Egix, Brass.

Also, anyone notice the inconsistency in what Brass believes? Literally like 10 posts earlier he said “we should go for ww” and then he votes egix and now he says it’s a ww on ww scumtheatre between me and Auro and he’s completely fine with Egix being on my wagon. Funny. It’s not like town could win in any situation, either, but with this vote, you’re making your win rate at a solid 0%

Okay, let me walk you through this.

Egix is mafia.

Mafia needs to lynch the WWs.

I am voting you because I believe you are WW.

multiball makes strange bedfellows. I assume that when we need 5 votes and there are only 4 town, I'm going to have to vote with some scum faction people because that's just how math works.

Then mafia has done a bad job

[scum reading]

It was a joke, you’re still ww.

[scum reading]

Was wondering why maf wasn’t on me

[scum reading]

I’m just messing around, my reads are still up boys

[scum reading]

I have no night actions, so, I would agree to accelerated night.

Trying to get towncred at this stage of the game, damn

[scum reading]

Like, legit, three people in this game have Night actions, Seer and wolves.

Seer finds wolf or not wolf.

The seer got not wolf on me.

How the fuck am I claiming town cred by just stating the obvious that, no matter what, I have no night action?

You’re mafia, maf has no night action, that’s right, they have a PT, but you said that to try and regain credibility. Seer also doesn’t see maf.

[scum reading]

There's a weird epidemic of people replacing in and not bothering to read the setup in multiball games where only one kill occurs per night. It's super distressing to me.

You’re getting so defensive all of a sudden, I didn’t say you were ww, I said you were trying to get town cred, when there’s no need to do that as town, only if you are self-aware.

[scum reading]

Yo brass, who do you suspect is maf?

[scum reading]

And you're missing the point. You're the one specifically arguing for his lynch as the suspected partner of SR. Yes you have me and others as a choice but he seems determined to make you the fall guy. Now why would he do that if you are right about him and SR? Wouldn't that just implicate him if not tomorrow then the next day?

Not arguing for his Lynch - just saying that he's the likeliest partner ATM. He's gotten away with blatantly defending against the McQueen lynch D2; it's easier defending with me dead when he can begin to frame you/Roster whoever as the other wolf

Also he made this statement after Brass said it, so he feels it's a good attack vector.

I cLaImEd VaNiLlA tOwNiE aFtEr I gOt HaMmErEd, HoW iS hE mY pArTnEr?

[scum reading]

Fight me auro, kappa

[scum reading]

Egix, Auro and either A50 or Buj is my best guess

Brass, you get my town read token. It’s you and hydra as town. I doubt that mafia claim is townie. I’ll talk with you since you aren’t the one trying to prepare town for a lynch on A50 tomorrow, even though I claimed town, so Auro’s gamesolving is awful rn

[scum reading]

I don’t know who third townie is, can’t help.

[scum reading]

My PoE : Auro definitely isn’t town, BuJ is sus, roster sus, Egix always slips under the radar, I barely remember him posting anything. It could actually be Bambi as town at this point, I don’t even know.

[scum reading]

I still don’t get why you are making so many usless scenarios. Brass and hydra, ignore these 2 for this twilight. Cooperate with me in finding the other two towns. It’s gonna be you 2. I honestly believe A50 is a town, I don’t know who the last town is. Give me your thoughts and I’ll try and state my opinion as well, maybe that helps you somehow.

BuJ and Auro def scum. Ignore whatever case they bring up, using twilight as a tool to get your reads messed up.

[scum reading]

And them to seem active. I already said I’m town. Are you two looking to keep your post count up, or what?

[scum reading]

Ok, you and Auro keep talking. Brass, you have auro’s reads.