Open 748: Jungle Republic - Over!

[BuJaber]

@S-R: Two people posted any real no lynch 'statistics', and both of them based it on false assumptions leading to the wrong conclusion.

No lynch served mafia. Mafia are the ones that benefit from lack of information and for keeping seer alive. Town only benefit from keeping seer alive. And WWs benefit from neither.

I find it rather amusing that you come in here trying to make that whole thing look so townie and that your are so pro-no lynch when you weren't even here and then use the same thing to lynch within the no voters.

[Auro]

SR, you were wolf, right?

RN I'm not sure which one of BuJ/A50 could be partners; I think bussing is strongly detrimental so I'm again not fully sure of A50.

[Auro]

What if it's Scum Reading and Auro because that gave me real SvS vibes.

Ugh... I hate that this is actually the right move

VOTE: scum reading

If you get SvS vibes, what roles do you assign to each person? Me being ww and him mafia?

Both WW.

I'm saying that it looked staged. Like if we lynch one, we find a WW and need to go "Hey, they had this fight, why would they both be WW?"

But, it seems fake to me.

This is going at a next level of reasoning behind your voting. Brass could be scum as well actually. Scum thrive in possibility, town in probability. You making this whole case against me seems too much of a desperate attempt to justify your vote. But if you believe it’s a werewolf on werewolf, you’d be alright with lynching Auro as well, right? Except you’re not.

SR is actually right here, very wonky reasoning on Brass' part
It's absurd to think I'd bus my WW partner on D2 when no lynch was a clearly better alternative and push the gamestate to 5-3-1 which is prob loss even if I reap towncred from it. Brass' push on Egix because Egix isn't townreading him yet is also not impressive here.

[Auro]

But Brass can't be wolf - and if he's Mafia I can't imagine who his partners would be.

[BuJaber]

SR, you were wolf, right?

RN I'm not sure which one of BuJ/A50 could be partners; I think bussing is strongly detrimental so I'm again not fully sure of A50.

You should be pushing A50 as mafia.

Do you still think he was right about the no lynch?
You seemed unsure at twilight d2 and I thought you realized you made a mistake. Were you faking?
Because if you are town he should be outed mafia right now

[Auro]

If A50 is Mafia who's the other wolf? Roster?

[Auro]

Do you still think he was right about the no lynch?
You seemed unsure at twilight d2 and I thought you realized you made a mistake. Were you faking?
Because if you are town he should be outed mafia right now

People can be wrong about their logic sometimes is what I think. I've provided an argument as to why A50 would fight for a No Lynch when the pressure was on his wolf buddy McQueen - that's plausible, no?

[BuJaber]

Brass is town. I can't imagine if he were partners with Bambi he would do the whole thing he did when he was telling us to vote him because he's sick of this game.

He could have chosen one of two much easier and safer alternatives:
- Ignore the whole thing like a bunch of lurkers did.
- Distance Bambi by directing his 'anger' at him.

[BuJaber]

Do you still think he was right about the no lynch?
You seemed unsure at twilight d2 and I thought you realized you made a mistake. Were you faking?
Because if you are town he should be outed mafia right now

People can be wrong about their logic sometimes is what I think. I've provided an argument as to why A50 would fight for a No Lynch when the pressure was on his wolf buddy McQueen - that's plausible, no?

I agree it is, but knowing A50 it is equally plausible he would bus him and try to win it solo. He's not easy to lynch. He usually gets NK'd instead. In normal games if he's alive in later days it'd be suspicious but this is multiball. Therefore him specifically pointing this out would spew S-R town if A50 is wolf here.

The seer check is a risk regardless of bussing or not bussing so it's irrelevant to his decision.

[Auro]

Bussing in this game is really, really bad though unless it's the only option. D2 bus would bring it to 5-3-1 and a very probable loss even if A50 gets massive towncred from a bussing lynch.

The seer check is a fine trade-off to avoid his partner getting lynched, IMO.

[BuJaber]

I guess we can discuss this further.. maybe since a majority did believe no lynch is good then it makes sense for wolf!A50 to try to get towncred that way instead of by bussing, but it's hard for me to see that no lynch as beneficial to town when mafia have 3 living members.

[Auro]

There's also the assumption that the NK would be gated to Mafia (since we have a claimed Mafia) instead of a seer-hunt, which war then a reasonable assumption to make.

Whatever is truly optimal, I don't think it necessarily matters because there were pros and cons to each for every faction, and the decision to support it or not would be a function of that and the gamestate.

Also, BuJ, it doesn't matter much now - we're much closer to a full gamesolve at the moment. All that we need to do now is identify the correct townblock, and then I'll analyze whether we have a sure path of victory. My analysis would be contingent on SR being wolf, which I'm 99% sure of anyway - especially after his forcing a 1v1 with me.

Ajfe is town. BrassHerald is town. I'm town. I need to identity the fourth.
Bambi is Mafia. Egix is prob Mafia.

This leaves {Roster, BuJaber, Almost50} where one's town, one's Mafia, one's WW. I can't see A50 being town here; going by your theory that NL is most beneficial for Mafia (and also Mafia knew this and played to it) I'd be inclined to believe Roster is Maf. If you're town, that would leave A50 wolf.

[scum reading]

But Brass can't be wolf - and if he's Mafia I can't imagine who his partners would be.

Bambi? Roster?

[scum reading]

Can i still post if I was lynched but not taken out of the game yet?

[Auro]

There's no rule against it I think, still twilight.
You WERE wolf, right?

[Auro]

Check what? I obviously KNOW NOW that the Seer didn't vote NL, so that wasn't what I was talking about. It was the theory that roster is mafia. If ROSTER IS MAFIA then ,y reads have been shittier than they have ever been before.

"I... KNOW NOW... ROSTER IS MAFIA"
Signaling?

[scum reading]

There's no rule against it I think, still twilight.
You WERE wolf, right?

Nope.

[scum reading]

I trusted the hydra and the hydra hammers me, I thought we had a connection, I felt you town read me for a second

[Auro]

There's no rule against it I think, still twilight.
You WERE wolf, right?

Nope.

Then *why* did you jump straight to "Vote between me and Auro" instead of critiquing my PoE and considering other slots scum?

[scum reading]

There's no rule against it I think, still twilight.
You WERE wolf, right?

Nope.

Then *why* did you jump straight to "Vote between me and Auro" instead of critiquing my PoE and considering other slots scum?

Aren’t you ww though?

[ajfefijsleifjsa]

i feel no remorse

[scum reading]

There's no rule against it I think, still twilight.
You WERE wolf, right?

Nope.

Then *why* did you jump straight to "Vote between me and Auro" instead of critiquing my PoE and considering other slots scum?

Because town had no clues on ww and then you made sense to be a ww. Guess we’ll see at the end of the game. Not like my comment on your PoE would change anything, I don’t think you’d change your vote, otherwise you’d look scummy? If not me, who would’ve you voted for? You already gave a full case on how I’m ww when I wasn’t even here, so town will tend to listen to you, making this not even close to a 50/50 like I said since town heavily town read you. I was the underdog here and I would’ve gotten lynched anyways

[scum reading]

i feel no remorse

You’re mean-intended, I just wanted to make friends

[Auro]

I'm not WW. :$

Why does town not having clues on ww point to me being WW? Cause I'm actively trying to solve the game? I'm not seeing the logic there. There's a possibility I would've begun to townread you and shifted to Egix (Or Roster or BuJaber or Almost50). I'm not scared of moving my vote / re-evaluating my reads...

[scum reading]

Who’s your ww friend, Auro?