Open 754: Fire and Ice (Game Over) Fire Mafia wins.

[Succinct]

VOTE: BrightEyedFish
Last Fire.

Last ice's either insomnia or roster.

I assume I'll need to show homework; will cite reasons tonight.

[Succinct]

Ofrhz is found burned to death, in his charred hands, a blue crystal is held, but the second someone tries to take it, the crystal crumbles. He was an

Ice Mafia Goon

Held just a few feet away, seemingly cowering away from the now dead Vedith, a burnt corpse barely recognizable as RuiRui is found. He was a

Vanilla Townie

Fire kills.

Just a few feet away, Springtrap is frozen in a block of ice. Chipping him out, he's not breathing. He was a

Vanilla Townie

Today, Vedith was found with water surrounding him, frozen to death, but the ice melted in the unseasonable warmth that surrounded him, a red gem that looked like an eye falls out of his hand and burns as his body is removed. He was a

Fire Mafia Goon

Ice kills.

Kills could only come from two mutually-exclusive mindsets:
Aimed to crosskill, succeeding once and failing the other;
Aimed to hit threatening townie, succeeding once and accidentally cross-killing another.

I can't identify which method Ice was using.
There's evidence Fire was aiming for the latter. I cite the mod's iso; ofrhz was never once voted, and the only RuiRui voter was briefly BrightEyedFish (later dropped).
Suppose this hypothesis is correct; Fire aimed to kill threatening townies.

Who would be threatened by both ofrhz and RuiRui?

BrightEyedFish (1)~

RuiRui

BrightEyedFish (4)~

ofrhz, Ceejayvinoya, maadneet, Springtrap

ofrhz and RuiRui had in common ending the day voting BrightEyedFish and being Fire's nightkill immediately after.

Ergo, BrightEyedFish's last Fire Goon.

Last Ice being insomnia or rosterfoster's based on VCA:

Allomancer (7)~

Vedith, Eyes Without A Face, ‪Dr Worm, GrandWazoo, BrightEyedFish, rosterfoster,Pinturicchio

BrightEyedFish (4)~

ofrhz, Ceejayvinoya, maadneet, Springtrap

Ceejayvinoya(1)~

RuiRui

Eyes Without a Face (1)~

Allomancer

GrandWazoo (6)~

BrightEyedFish, Pinturicchio, Ceejayvinoya, Vedith, insomnia, Rosterfoster

Insomnia (1)~

GrandWazooo

maadneet (1)~

Dr Worm

BrightEyedFish (1)~

RuiRui

Not Voting (1)~

maadneet

On D1, it's doubtful ofrhz's buddy voted with them, but probable ofrhz's buddy voted a lead wagon. Eyes/Insomnia, BrightEyedFish, rosterfoster, and pinturicchio're the only options; BrightEyedFish is as established the last Fire, leaving only three names.

These three names show up on the D2 lynch wagon as well, further indicating they contain scum.
However, I eliminated pinturicchio as well, but I can't remember my reason.
There was backing to it, but I'm embarrassed I can't recall it.

[Succinct]

@BEF if you just replaced into this game and saw two scum flips, one for each team, wouldn't you look for "connections" too?

Precisely. I isoed the mod once I saw those flips in OP, and BEF = Fire was my first conclusion.

I

favor

roster as Ice, but have no hard evidence backing this guess.

What dead town player was "threatening to me?" Because scum of course would be threatening to me so using that as a connection is just wah wah wah.

This is multiball. Scum flipping doesn't clear you of killing them; quite the opposite.

You think I killed ruirui becasue I was "threatened" by him. He was barely active... And ofrhz WHO WAS SCUM was after me? That makes me scum?

And how would Fire-scum know ofrhz was Ice?

They wouldn't.

Vedith was gunning for my lynch and he turned out to be fire so that would make us partners according to succinct... nice try...

Beg your pardon but I saw zero evidence of that. I

do

see evidence of the contrary,

But Vedith was quite successful in directing the lynch away from you, no?

This. I reference,

Allomancer (4)~

Vedith, Eyes Without A Face, ‪Dr Worm, GrandWazoo

BrightEyedFish (4)~

ofrhz, rosterfoster, Ceejayvinoya, maadneet

During the peak of the BEF wagon, Vedith spearheaded the counterwagon on Allomancer. And not long after,

Allomancer (7)~

Vedith, Eyes Without A Face, ‪Dr Worm, GrandWazoo, BrightEyedFish, rosterfoster,Pinturicchio

BrightEyedFish (4)~

ofrhz, Ceejayvinoya, maadneet, Springtrap

Allomancer was lynched in part from Vedith's push.

I do acknowledge Vedith briefly voted BEF, but that vote was IMMEDIATELY removed, never to return.

[Succinct]

you are building your case on me that concludes I am Fire and thst I KNEW ofr was Ice scum....

I said no such thing? I said the opposite; you

didn't

know and in fact thought he was town.

[Succinct]

With the doctor dead, no reason not to
VOTE: No Lynch
As none of us are conftown or above reproach.

[Succinct]

Fucking called it on D1. No lynching today is getting me nightkilled and I would rather be alive today to win the game

I'd like to point out pinturicchio's death was precisely what I was hoping for as he was my strongest scumspect.

Then there's succint looking for connections on vca on who the last scums are but neglecting to try looking for associations.

I was in the thread for less than 48 hours. VCA took five minutes to do, associations take longer and are trickier.

I almost opened this post with a ceejay vote as I was confident in it being him or pint, but thought better of it as I owe the town the effort of analyzing this.

[Succinct]

On the other hand, a burnt corpse was found as well, along with the carcass of an ice dragon. It seems, without followers, the ice dragon died. Insomnia [/b][/color]

Ice Mafia Goon

has died, along with his draconian master.

It's noteworthy: last scum deliberately shot the other scum knowing it'd bring them to mylo, not knowing the other scum would shoot the doctor. They could've gone in with the other scum dead, another town dead, facing the doctor and two townies.

This suggests they were in a comfortable position.

Votecount 3.FINAL

BrightEyedFish (3) ~

succinct, insomnia, rosterfoster, pinturicchio

RosterFoster (2)~

BrightEyedFish, ceejyavinoya

rosterfoster wasn't in a comfortable position; he was in a spot where he was looking like a probable lynch candidate for D4. Having ice scum alive would be borderline a necessity if he were scum.

Ergo, why I thought the last scum was either pinturicchio or ceejayvinoya. I leaned pinturicchio because pinturicchio's position was more comfortable than ceejay's.

Votecount 3.5

insomnia (2) ~[/b]ceejyavinoya, pinturicchio
RosterFoster (1)~ BrightEyedFish

succinct (1) ~

maadneet

BrightEyedFish (1) ~

succinct

Not Voting (2)~

insomnia, rosterfoster

Since we can safely assume scum deliberately cross-killed, we can infer scum were scumreading insomnia; both ceejay and pinturicchio voted insomnia, whereas rosterfoster did not.

Held just a few feet away, seemingly cowering away from the now dead Vedith, a burnt corpse barely recognizable as RuiRui is found. He was a

Vanilla Townie

I initially thought Rui was a fire kill because of being a threat; with the insomnia kill and BEF flipping town, I lean towards this instead being an attempt to cross-kill.

However, interestingly, if it wasn't, Rui's vote prior to BEF was on ceejayvinoya.

Votecount 2.8

GrandWazoo (4)~

BrightEyedFish, Pinturicchio, Ceejayvinoya, Vedith

Ceejayvinoya (2)~

Rosterfoster, , RuiRui

While I realize roster hammered thus all three of ceejay/pint/roster were on the same wagon as Vedith (ensuring that Vedith's scumbuddy voted with him), Vedith's personality's more likely to vote close together as a scum voting bloc.

Again, favoring either ceejay or pinturicchio as scum.

Votecount 2.3

maadneet (3)~

Pinturicchio, Vedith, Ceejayvinoya

BrightEyedFish (1)~

Rosterfoster

Further supported by

this

wagon.
Both pinturicchio and ceejayvinoya shared the wagon with Vedith.

To be fair, there

is

roster sharing with Vedith. Twice, actually.

This is reason for hesitance and why I erred against instantly voting ceejay; because the point I initially thought condemned him isn't so clear-cut.

Ofrhz is found burned to death, in his charred hands, a blue crystal is held, but the second someone tries to take it, the crystal crumbles. He was an[/b][/color]

Ice Mafia Goon

Given that ofrhz was not scumread, my hypothesis is this wasn't an intentional cross-kill and was accidental, but once made, Vedith's scumteam switched gears and began intentionally aiming for the elimination of the team.

That's of little help however.

Also not helpful; there were equal wagons on ceejay and roster at the time Vedith pushed Allomancer, so determining which was the scumbuddy the Allomancer was a counterwagon to's difficult. (Yes, the roster wagon grew larger, but that was

after

Vedith started pushing Allomancer.)

There

is

minor anti-partner indicators via roster's vote on Vedith, again reason I favor ceejay, but it's not outside the realm of early-game bussing altogether.

This is where I'm coming from with my ceejay suspicion.