Open 770: Monty Hall Mafia (Game Over)

[the worst]

I'm sorry I'll try my best to be RC
VOTE: jingle

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I just looked at the list and thought about who I'd be most likely to kill n0

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it was you or penguin and.... the second best bird is more of a personal choice..

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Arc angle isn't a bird, she is an angle - but she's acute one sorry I'll see myself out.

Lovebird is third. Penguin is not quite as good as ducks but he's still a close second.

I'm not sure what #21 is getting at but - yes!

[the worst]

Never enough birds.

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I took a dump on Gamma Emerald.

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I actually had nearly no read on you in that game. You cc'd scum hardclaiming a guilty on my slot. :c

Lovebird is a good take. Ngl I feel like I'm the kind of person a lot of people might consider n1ing for a hot minute but I've been n1'd like maybe twice in the last year. That said I don't think this is a well considered enough part of my meta that people would n1 me to get around it you know?

RC on the contrary would have been a super obvious choice

Idk just kinda musing. Unless penguin is scum I think my n1 equity is low.

[the worst]

Similarly like, Lovebird is a generally sensible left of centre townie to remove from the game which sidesteps the obvious n1s but I'm not sure how many people would regard her as such

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who were you in the hydra one? I replaced in the final 24hrs

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Arcangel is pretty good yeah - she's been on hiatus for a while though so firstly :shrug: and secondly I'm not sure who would n1 her in this list

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who were you in the hydra one? I replaced in the final 24hrs

On MU

OH YEAH
Okay valid I did have you right there

[the worst]

Good luck with the move Bungle. <3

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Hello my favourite. <3

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Penguin.... It's pops. She's the only person more angelic than her predecessor.

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Think Bungle is the only selfvote and I'm more interested in his reads than his vote.. It's kinda jarring but we're protecting a n0 not voting townreads

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Actually what part of the self votes irked you pops?

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Please prod lovebirb gently she is delicate

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So we're playing that game huh penguin?

[the worst]

Ok that's valid

So I'm kinda struggling with this gamestate a little; obviously it needs advancing but the correct move would be to just policy protect whoever the noisiest town player is

But it's directly beneficial to kinda go through the motions and have these conversations.... so whatever

Anyone have any opinions on NU's heal on me?
Does anyone have a reason not to just policy heal Bungle?

The more I think about this if I were scum I'd probably do something like PP => Bungle just because the policy heal play is so obvious but idk if this is a substantial enough consideration to actively try to outplay the possibility of scum trying to outplay the policy heal and I kinda just think we should policy heal Bungle anyway

[the worst]

VOTE: Worst

~The Blue one

Why this vote NUbers?

[the worst]

i can give my full reasoning if needed but i'd probably rather not

of everyone i think bingle is someone who's well known enough and has a formidable enough presence as town that most scumteams would at least seriously considering submitting him as a delayed n0 kill.
there are other considerations but i don't really regard them as consistently probable as bungle.

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If I were scum in this list he'd be my most serious n1 consideration pregame yeah

[the worst]

@mod

opening posts omit the bit about scum being able to change the kill list -

thread

Pre-game: Mafia must submit a kill list of all town players.

md

Pre-game, the mafia must submit a kill list of all town players. They may update this kill list at any point during the game.

How many people missed this exactly?

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@mod

was the kill list locked before or after replacements?

@mod

was the kill list locked before or after replacements?

Thanks Chem. And seconded.

Us 3 I think...? It's probably not something im inclined to treat as particularly AI given it was missed from the opening posts but it's interesting depending on flips

[the worst]

given votes aren't locked my policy doc strat just doesn't work at all - I'd actually rather
VOTE: popsofctown

will hammer myself if I hit L-1

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Penguin please vote someone you're making me sweat

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ok fair enough

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VOTE: tw

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I was like slightly worried NUbers were trying to pocket me ngl

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are pops pp or chem incentivised to kill NUbers?

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What a strange target.

yeah this exactly

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my vanity is flaring up so i'm just gonna get this off my chest

was i actually protected there?

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What was the unstrange target for an NK in this list?

Like anyone other than NUbers tbh

[the worst]

Do you think Nu Ubers would have been anyone's first choice for a kill?

that's kinda what i'm wondering

i'm interested to see why you're pinging NUbers - my mind went to pops for a second after her post about the sala/spamposting thing

don't really think that's very damning tho and she's also probably just town

[the worst]

Sala what's got you sussing PP?

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yeah, i'm leaning into quieter slots as well

i'm kinda thinking after all the noise i made yday about being mislynchable and a bad n1 kill i might have swung over the nk through sheer wifom but picking NUbers in that vacuum doesn't feel like a conscious decision - it felt to me like a ?compromise? kill

basically i don't feel like the list was switched

nubers are obviously cleared; i also think pops and pp are more than likely town

[the worst]

i'm going to write all of my posts via this tool from now on.

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any reads aorn elsa?

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working on like concealed plans doesn't really work in this setup dude, speedlynching in the protect phase is the only way to actually preserve high nk equity slots

can you talk me through where you're at a bit more?

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before realising scum could change the list i didn't like the idea of flashing the protect phase but i actually think pops seizing control there and forcing a lynch while there was a small number of active slots was really towny

[the worst]

tbh yes

[the worst]

VOTE: Elsa

[the worst]

thx jay

[the worst]

i think your posting this page has been scummy.

[the worst]

Do you think Elsa is town Chem?

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Elsa posting pg8 struck me as really survivalistic/blending in mindset. I'm really surprised no one else is seeing this?

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Gamma dying is meh, since I thought Chemist was the "Meme" choice as he put it. It's what I would've done instead.

But you all also gave scum an easy target day 2 instead if Worst is actually town. That's why I wanted Chem protected even more damnit. We could've used the double protect option instead tommorow on the combo of Worst/Penguin or something.

I'll think about my lynch target now but dangit guys you all ruined my plan in the span of a nap.

i've already spoken about why the frustrated tonality around this pinged me

Well, since I was offline, and it happened with Gamma and friend voting you as well, are you assuming the 4 people on you are the main bulk of the town then?

Huh. So that leaves me, Chemist, and Bingle then.

this felt like a really manufactured response to me saying i have a poe of 3 including you

i was very intentionally downplaying my reads at SOD, and if you're not townreading the same four townies as i am this is the right opportunity to advance the conversation beyond like
elsa: so you think {4 ppl} are town?
me: yas !
but instead of taking it you just kinda agree with the fairly artificial POE and vote Bungle

it didn't feel like you felt any kind of urgency with sorting me in particular or really advancing anything, and more like you kinda just wanted to be voting bungle?

The birds have fused their minds. Such is life.

VOTE: Bingle

If we're going by your theory, I don't want the follower gone first, but the guy who would be the mastermind.

Frankly we could do the double lynch if we play our cards right but scum wouldn't allow that huh?

rather than opening a dialogue or trying to sort through where your reads were at you gave a super overexplainy vote

Smooth transition, ducky.

Why me of the remaining 3 though?

rxn to me voting you felt as though you felt like entitled not to be voted


i know that you like to survive but from your input today i'm getting the feeling that you want to be townread quite a lot more than you want to sort other slots - i appreciate sheer survivalism isn't a scum!elsa tell but you're pinging me a lot. :/

[the worst]

Honestly going after me has only opened yourself up to more scrutiny. I guess we can debatably say that's townie, but as someone who's played with me atleast on 5 seperate occasions, you made very crappy arguments that try to make everything I do look bad.

Jay I think you looked like you were up to some shit that page - I think other than that you haven't really done much AI.

I've played with you plenty and read you correctly and incorrectly as both alignments. I tried to mislynch you a few months ago and you pointed out the bad faith in my argument really calmly - here you're transparent not paying attention to what I'm saying

The rest of your post here is basically discrediting me as trying to?? mislynch you??? because I talked through what was irking me about your slot

I get regardless of alignment you don't want to be lynched but if you're expecting this post to call me to action I have no fucking idea what kind of action you're trying to call me to

[the worst]

You look like you were playing a scumgame a couple of pages ago. Bungle I'm pretty much dead null on

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Look if Elsa is doing something towny here and I'm just getting caught up on dumb shit someone tell me but this is the phase where it's actually valuable to make noise and generate content so I don't see why I should like mutely vote Jungle or whatever the plan is

There's like a tonne of conversation about probability and the way the setup works but I feel like the only person who isn't talking around solving slots and it's a pretty isolating feeling

If elsa/chem/bungle feel there's scum in the active block: sweet let's talk about it. who do you think I'm wrong on and how are you reading the inactive block?

[the worst]

Pops having a similar concern wrt Jay as I do is making me warm and fuzzy. I'm holding out for his next appearance a little tho

[the worst]

i don't think us 1v1ing is really all that valuable
VOTE: chemist

i'll report back if the pings develop into an actual read but i don't really feel all that strongly about your alignment yet; the fact that this whole line of conversation has been almost totally ignored makes me think you're like 1% more likely to be town

[the worst]

Frozen 2 is bored. I don't think his alignment is gonna really poke through all that much for a minute

[the worst]

Chemist1422 is a distant descendant of Bungle, Generations of tweaks to the original model, but they can't shake the biological impulse to respond to the name Bingle.

[the worst]

VOTE: Bungle

[the worst]

idrk about bungle
rather this than unvote tho

[the worst]

Tbh I think I see what you're seeing. I'm not sure if that kind of mindset off one post from vla!Bungle is like /explicitly/ scum inductive but I like the idea of squeezing him harder.

[the worst]

Chemist isnt mafia.

I'm getting a real similar vibe on chemmy.

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Can you explain why, duck? I would have asked Salamence why if he didn't explicitly say he has nothing for me.

Mostly a soulread as well - I feel like most of the game hasn't really alignment told that much tbh

Wagon sprang up to L-1 without like any opposition or real reaction from the rest of the game. The last time I played with scum!chemist offsite he was also run up d1 and he actually reacted to it there - he/his hydra partner were like, playing it cool but their posts where infused with this unspoken panic if that makes sense?

His response here was just quite tonally chemist. It wasn't all that towny but it didn't feel like he needed to be anything more than he is (unavailable and very slightly disappointed at being flashwagoned while v/la)

[the worst]

PP update me on your Elsa read please?

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Hi Nona!

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nona twtbaw?

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I don't subscribe to that belief.

i mean i'm not moving my vote for a reason

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Nona are you an alt? Many people are voting Bingle or gave him an FoS. Bingle is unlikely to AtE so we were hoping the pressure voting would help us read him. If you are an alt we can better know whether to BoP you and also if you are a partially outed alt and only the scum know that could mess up our NKA. Anyway I hope you can help us several of use are trying to create a strong PoE since this setup is all VT and strongly dayplay should carry us far with the poison mechanic making LyLo function like MyLo and Monty Hall info making it viable to perhaps utilize even preflip associatives and definitely strong wagonomics.
Please catch up on the thread and give us your thoughts but please no IioA

have i told you today that i love you?

[the worst]

grammar is, an illusion

[the worst]

that'sa me and my biggest townread
any take on any of the other slots?

i know there isn't much to work with :c

[the worst]

opinion on chemist? is this how he usually plays?

if i had to give a one word answer: "sure"
don't really think chemist has alignment told

the fact he hasn't felt the need to look towny might be abstractly town indicative but it's kinda just 2% town scented, and defs within his scumrange

[the worst]

i don't think anyone is sincere with the buzzword stuff here jay

[the worst]

relatable

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if i had a second vote i'd have it on EJ rn

[the worst]

what's got you clearing an EJ/Nona scumteam?

[the worst]

i hadn't really considered that. good point.

VOTE: EJ

[the worst]

@pops PP is also a lot more solvey here than AvP - i remember waving that flaming torch
that said it's a lurksacky micro, like it's quite easy to have one or two opinions to circumvent meta
but it's even easier to just not exist

i guess pp is like more likely town than everyone else except you

[the worst]

i didn't read fogport or check his alignment there i just saw you talkin pp meta and decided to throw my three breadcrumbs into the conversation

[the worst]

it's the second cutest thing ever
the cutest is popsofctown

[the worst]

don't worry i won't

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more argumentative

please

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ok

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That Bungle felt it was a good idea to vote Penguin..?
Not sure I really have much of a read on whether it was partner indicative or not

[the worst]

VOTE: Nona

[the worst]

I wish I felt even slightly guilty for that.
PI I'm starting to worry you might be scum.

[the worst]

PP

[the worst]

Bah?

Valid.

[the worst]

I'm actually just gonna
VOTE: pops

pedit: hadn't considered that. post edited heavily.

[the worst]

VOTE: Elsa

[the worst]

[the worst]

okay I was getting really nervous about a PP/Elsa team and I was so ready to come into today poisoned and be like "how the fuck is anyone ever poisoning EJ today SCUMPENGUIN"

[the worst]

If there was ever a chance of her getting poisoned the correct play was to quickhammer and hope that scum gameplay manipulation failed. Incidentally in the moment I thought you and her were scum trying to swing the protect off anyone valuable.

[the worst]

Ditto. I did not expect to have to be sorted this phase.

[the worst]

How come every time you misread me THIS happens
(ノಠ益ಠ)ノ彡┻━┻

[the worst]

I'm wrong on at least one of chem/pops and suddenly the pressing weight of having to resort chem/pops/EJ is mighty heavy

[the worst]

Well - at least you're not the IC this time.

Not bulletproof either. :c

[the worst]

She's actually pinged my towndar more often than the others.

[the worst]

Compared to AvP she's been somewhat more mechanical/less erratic with reads but not in a way I wouldn't expect with the difference in this game's pace - I also don't think she's posting with a lot of care as to how she's being read

[the worst]

So you think it’s a Chemist/Elsa.

if I like literally removed you from my readlist and proceed accordingly yes

I want to do more work on this before committing to a team though. I also haven't given chemist enough attention and I don't feel like I have a team solve locked in.

[the worst]

You can vote me if you really feel the need but if you are town we lose so :shrug:

give me 48 hours first

[the worst]

Are you an emperor, Penguin?

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in theory ausuka would just work off whatever the most recent list submitted was

i'm p doubtful that there would have been time to change the list during PP2

[the worst]

ngl ottomh i don't really understand your kill or NUbers'

[the worst]

that was in response to PP
you're extremely alive rn

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i think that's probably fair

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honestly i'm basically cleared via another bird being poisoned.

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Ducky be honest. Do you still distrust me?

i'm trusting you more as this phase is going on.

[the worst]

honestly i'm basically cleared via another bird being poisoned.

Hmm...

this was a shitpost
but it's not untrue

[the worst]

at a really basic level i'm not sure that my voting pattern makes any sense as scum but outside of that like
i need to reread pretty badly because i'm worried my reads have been upside down

either i WAS right on you you're pocketing me really well in which case i've misread one of chem/pops anyway or i was wrong on literally every read

[the worst]

How can the goat be irrelevant? He basically runs this game

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Yeah goat, like the spooky dudes who move through walls

[the worst]

Duckchemist might be the most confusing scumteam suggestion possible rn

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Bllregfhhhh I'm tryinggg

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I'm not totally sure how to obvtown in this gamestate so I guess I'll just start posting

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so like at a real surface level i'd probably scumread elsa

i found the way elsa kinda just accepted the {chem,bingle,elsa} trichotomy on LP1 kinda scummy and it just felt like she was more incentivised to stay alive than to work out who is actually the scumz
her votehopping later in that phase was also kinda irking me because as i felt /more/ confident on who could potentially be scum it felt like elsa was just kinda happy to continue voting inside that trichotomy to stay alive

flipside at surface level i'd probably townread pops
mathspam doesn't really register all that well with me but if you break her iso down to just parts which are gamestate oriented / solving i kinda just got the impression she was trying to sort people and wasn't all that interested in looking good
her main pocketing has been towards ausuka lol
back over PP1 i do like the way she seized control of the gamestate but the more i'm looking the more i think this kind of strongarm gamestate manipulation gambit is within her scumrange

[the worst]

basically i think if i was playing this game cold without meta i'd be at like
town: pops
help: chemmy
scum: elsa

but trying to solve this at face value feels really superficial
i don't really think people have done a whole lot outside of their scumrange
i feel like saying {elsa,chem} looks kinda fine but it doesn't feel like that's actually a scumteam in this game

[the worst]

i still think i was probably protected in PP1? nubers just don't feel like an intuitive loln1 kill from a team of {pops,chem}, {chem,elsa}, {elsa,pops}

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Pengu vote someone already so I don't have to take responsibility if we lose.

That's not how this is going to work. I'm still trying to figure out how to minimize my responsibility.

easy - just outsource, replace in on a hydra

[the worst]

easy - just outsource, replace in on a hydra

(this was a joke please don't ban me)

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"I've been scumreading elsa the entire time, so when Elsa did the scummy thing and tried to protect herself, I hammered her so the penguin couldn't get the protect because reasons." - The Worst

despite that phase giving me mild whiplash i think i was quite transparent :c

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whatever i'm not sure how to show my working out while posting at work
i don't think i'm going to hit obvtown status this phase

i came into pp2 paranoid it was penguin/elsa and expecting to be poisoned
i came out of pp2 knowing for a fact i was wrong about penguin and now i kinda just think elsa is probably town as well and i don't really know why

[the worst]

How come every time you misread me THIS happens
(ノಠ益ಠ)ノ彡┻━┻

Yeah, you capitalized on me and Pengu fucking up and quickhammered so we wouldn't realize we should protect Pengu instead.

first: table flip very relatable
second: i was absolutely convinced if we quickhammered PP2 without scum having a chance to evaluate their kill list i would have eaten the poison
you can't say anyone would have expected me to lolhammer you in pp2. that was the perfect unexpected play.
i'm pretty sure i can successfully sort pp in a high pressure situation - being in f5 after pp had hard pushed for a protect wagon on you would have been the perfect opportunity to sort pp.

not really optimal play in a world where i need to be townread but i think it was a solid ass play from the pov that i needed to sort penguin who was not outside of his scumrange.

[the worst]

i was starting to very much doubt the penguin's alignment elsa.

[the worst]

neither

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i was starting to very much doubt the penguin's alignment elsa.

Well as scum its your job to cast doubt and stuff, but I meant from townies.

and as town it's my job to doubt and check my reads until i feel that they're right

[the worst]

I feel like it's chem/pops :shrug:

[the worst]

No dramas here

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Don't stress penguin we got this

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sigh

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Nope, I'm fine with chemist. I'm just worried I'm eating a mislynch for the loss anyway.

[the worst]

I'm really not sure how you expect me to towntell more in this gamestate dude

[the worst]

I don't really think there's been a chance to break my scumrange this game..? Maybe I give my scumgame too much credit tho

Fypov I'm scum with pops or scum with chemist
I'm not really sure I would have treated either of them the way I have if I were scum with them - I feel like it's reasonably clear I'm trying my best to solve rather than pushing an agenda

I don't think my voting patterns or read change this phase have necessarily been very easy to follow but again I think it's been pretty clearly agenda free

idk man a big part of why I can see myself mislynched here is because I am not really sure how I'd town case myself, or anyone

I kinda feel like I feel when I play on wooper rn. I thought I was a pretty likely PP2 kill and didn't really expect to need to look townier than I already have at the 11th hour :U

[the worst]

yeah that kinda contributes to part of why I townread you

[the worst]

VOTE: chemist

> lynch case rather than scumcase
> vote before ic is ready

w/e this reds

[the worst]

It's just chemist/pops

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Watch pops not hammer this

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oh

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did I just witness an ej/pops quick hammer and not realise

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If you'd all just listened to penguin, we would be sitting here eating ice cream and playing with puppies right now. just sayin'.

[the worst]

You played well EJ. I'll accept the gloat.

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Bro you go "watch pops not hammer this" and she literally does it 10 seconds later, what do you mean it's me?

It's just chemist/pops

I didn't think she'd hammer it.

[the worst]

I don't feel like Penguin was decided. Mostly anxious about chem's low content level.

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Literally... sigh. I guess I can't feel too bad. If it wasn't him it was me.

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gj goat.

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Fuck that, I'm eating the goat.

See this post sounds like town!Elsa.

[the worst]

I wonder how it feels to be a new car right now?

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As the dark form of goat person I thoroughly agree.

[the worst]

99% sure we were all town and we just needed to lynch math and ausuka to win D:

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I loved this game but I'm also on the fence about the MH mechanic. That said my scum style is hitting the game with a hammer until it is dead so maybe this calls for more finesse. Who knows.

I think this makes for a nice marathon tbh like MFD being able to sway people's perceptions for a moment adds a lot you know? I think I coasted LP1 in part because I seemed to have been protected at face value.

Great modding as always, Ausuka!

[the worst]

Oh yeah agreed - good luck with the finals, chemist!

[the worst]

You're gonna be murdering pops a LOT.