Open 788 - Crossfire - Game Over

[Hiraki]

confirm VT

[Hiraki]

Vote: Marksman
Vote: Hellbooks

[Hiraki]

I'm not really RVSing. I'm coming out of the gate swinging.

[Hiraki]

I think it seems a bit unfair if we all confirm vt

could be bait but I TR this

hi ~~~~~~~~~~

do not TR that

VOTE: hellbooks

She OMGUSED me.

nor this

[Hiraki]

Yeah, I don't like Isis either.

[Hiraki]

Do you think Hiraki is equally obvtown, or do you just believe in his leadership skills?

I mean, it was said twice...

[Hiraki]

Vote: Nono

[Hiraki]

I have no clue why any of you think Marksman is town. He literally just tried to deflect any bad news about him in the above post.

[Hiraki]

@Wey - Half (3) of the names in 66 hadn't posted yet, how can you find them suspicious?

Then immediately votes said names.

[Hiraki]

Don't you think your efforts would be better suited to saying something rather than playing back-up mod all of the time? I'm not trying to discourage it - just noting that you've now done it 3 times on one page with the mod also providing a vote count above. I also still don't know what

you

think after all of it.

[Hiraki]

Wey said he found them suspicious. I'm not saying they're suspicious, I'm voting to pressure them to post. Clear difference.

Mostly due to the help with vote count,

and general participation.

Must take a rocket scientist, I guess.

[Hiraki]

I guess post #66 could/should have included reasoning, but it included most names that I found/find suspicious as well

It would be

such

a stretch to say that he was voting people for their lack of participation if he's townreading someone for their participation, right?

[Hiraki]

Don't you think your efforts would be better suited to saying something rather than playing back-up mod all of the time? I'm not trying to discourage it - just noting that you've now done it 3 times on one page with the mod also providing a vote count above. I also still don't know what

you

think after all of it.

I have an idea on how to figure some things out, but it only works if innocentvillager flips mafia. If he doesn't flip mafia, I am at a loss.

It's okay. When you get lost, you can just follow me then. Mindlessly, hopefully.

[Hiraki]

I guess post #66 could/should have included reasoning, but it included most names that I found/find suspicious as well

It would be

such

a stretch to say that he was voting people for their lack of participation if he's townreading someone for their participation, right?

Hiraki, why are you even answering on WyounsLastClone's behalf?

Because it's a terrible question. Feel free to tell me what other answer Wey could give here that isn't utter ridiculous. The people haven't posted clearly his 'suspicion' is because they haven't posted. Pressure to post and suspicion due to not posting are the same thing in this scenario, especially with a vote.

Don't you think your efforts would be better suited to saying something rather than playing back-up mod all of the time? I'm not trying to discourage it - just noting that you've now done it 3 times on one page with the mod also providing a vote count above. I also still don't know what

you

think after all of it.

I have an idea on how to figure some things out, but it only works if innocentvillager flips mafia. If he doesn't flip mafia, I am at a loss.

It's okay. When you get lost, you can just follow me then. Mindlessly, hopefully.

Fortunately, I currently have a suspect if he flips town.

But you intend on just playing these weird coy games in the meantime?

[Hiraki]

@Hiraki - I do think that's a stretch actually if you're suggesting I should've immediately assumed that. You're putting words in his mouth.

No, I don't think you immediately assume it. I think you go back, think about it for a second, and then put it all together. Instead, I believe you saw an opportunity, seized it, and tried to get something with it. I won't allow it though. One is trying to solve the puzzle to get the right answer, the other is trying to get a lynch on whomever (eventually). You reek of the later.

[Hiraki]

I'd continue arguing with Hiraki on the difference between suspicion/pressure but I suspect it wouldn't help determine alignments.

No it 100% has to do with your alignment. Please tell me what he was suspicious of and why when he didn't post anything. He literally cannot be suspicious. That is a townie mindset. You decided to try and rip his words apart as if they had meaning no matter what he was saying. That is a scum mindset.

You are assuming WyounsLastClone would even give an answer that isn't utterly ridiculous.

Even though he already stated that he TR someone else for reasons in the game? Yeah, super big stretch there?

Weird coy games?

That is what I said.

[Hiraki]

How did you know what type of answer he would have given?

Because there literally is no other reason. It is a yes or no question where if you answer "Pineapples" as an answer, it doesn't make any sense. So congrats, if Wey comes in here and decides to tell us that he's voting them because a Pineapple told him, you've proven me wrong. Instead, I'm going to actually read the game where the three haven't posted and realize that he is voting them because they haven't posted and suspicion is a bad word. But

again

that is missing the point that Marksman didn't even think this far and just saw the word "suspicion", latched onto it because there is nothing to be suspicious of, and set-up a "GOTCHA!" based on the fact that this is clearly the situation. But again - I know you think that Wey is going to come in and say Pineapples for some reason still.

They're not "suspicious" for not posting. I am voting to pressure them. You telling me you've never voted someone you're null reading or even townreading them to motivate them to post more?

Perfect - there it is. You're now questioning him based on verbiage rather than intent? That is a terrible way of scumhunting, if you are genuine.

For me, being suspicious of someone means you dislike them for specific reasons. Maybe it's because Wey thinks scum are more likely to lurk start of game. Or maybe it was an oversight from scum!Wey and he gave reasoning without thinking about first. I asked him the question to solve him. You needleslly stepped in and answered for him. That's scummy.

What ANSWER does he give other than "they didn't post yet"???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

You needleslly stepped in and answered for him. That's scummy.

Yes, I helped him cheat on the exam. The question? What is 2 + 2?

[Hiraki]

THEY DIDN'T POST ANYTHING, WHAT ELSE COULD HE BE SUSPICIOUS OF?

[Hiraki]

Vote: Isis

[Hiraki]

-I didn't realise they hadn't posted yet, whoops. (This would be scummy)

There it is ladies and gentlemen! The Pineapples answer! 2 + 2 = Pineapples!

[Hiraki]

Yeah Wey! Why didn't you say that you didn't realize that they didn't post yet!? Not like that would be a universally terrible answer to do or anything!

[Hiraki]

Vote: Elements

[Hiraki]

153 might as well be throwing darts at a board in how much information it gives.

[Hiraki]

I think you get modkilled if you post too often. At least, that's what Ruby Red told me when I messaged her about it earlier.

This is either a really bad joke or a really weird mod move.

[Hiraki]

Thanks Hiraki your naked vote was like trying to sneak back into a party to grab your car keys after you already said your goodbyes.

Good analogy? Do you even want to try and figure out the game or just post your opinions and peace out?

I think you get modkilled if you post too often. At least, that's what Ruby Red told me when I messaged her about it earlier.

This is either a really bad joke or a really weird mod move.

Nah, fully serious, man.

She ranted to me for a bit about how there's way too many hyperposters nowadays. I think she's pretty damn passionate about it.

Weird.

[Hiraki]

Elements and Chemical Elements are not the same people.

[Hiraki]

What the hell are you going on about? The house was blue and I called it blue. Marksman was asking if it was blue.

[Hiraki]

And then you go on to be like, "Why are we even debating the green house? Focus on actual issues," is entirely disingenuous.

I

never

said anything near this. I think you're probably VI but damn, this is completely false. I questioned the motives behind his question. I never said the question was useless, I just said the answer was obvious. If it was useless, we'd never have this conversation. I would have just ignored it.

[Hiraki]

I'm talking about your dismissal of me.

The house is red.

I didn't dismiss you. You didn't give any reason behind anything and I can't correlate what you're saying to what you're doing. I'm not going to try and figure it out if you're going to be weird about it and then start doing these weird hipster comparisons. Ooo, the house is red because you think I'm scum! Deep!

How would you describe those posts other than trying to get people to ignore and discount me?

You explained nothing and gave your opinion on everything. It's not discounting it, it's just saying that I can't get a read off of you because you've refused to expand on anything.

You're not joking at me right? qwq I can't tell

You could start at Post 1 and go from there.

That's such a weird thing to lie about.

It's a lack of care, not lying.

[Hiraki]

TR Isis for #23 and #31 because I thought the same things.

Here's an example -

The main way this setup mechanic could help town I think is by being able to visualize how the wagons are moving and stuff better. In a normal game when you try to read over the votecounts sometimes a player "would have been down to vote up" X player but it's not really conveniently trackable. In this game you should be able to see it. And if people treat hammers as serious as they are, the mechanic shouldn't hurt.

I'm usually too lazy to even do normal votecount analysis but hopefully one of you is good at it

I wanted to vote everyone and then unvote as I started townreading people like innocentvillager, then I thought about it and realized if everyone did that the game would immediately end. So it's kind of selfish.

innocentvillager is removing people so rapidly it might not be so disruptive.

There are multiple things to agree with here - but let's go deeper.

If you agree with the first snippet of 23, you're agreeing with how the game is setup. I don't really see anything that could determine town or scum there. I don't see why scum can't call out a setup for being more townsided than scumsided.

If you agree with 31, then again - you're agreeing with something anyone could do. I don't really see how that formulates town rather than scum. I don't even think 153 is scummy, it's just useless information packed into 8-10 lines. Either way, just by doing that - I have doubled whatever you wrote because I'm at least explaining my views rather than calling them out and moving on.

[Hiraki]

Unvote: Isis

[Hiraki]

Hiraki: "Isis would do 23 and 31 that as scum."

Isis: "Yeah I totally would."

Hiraki: Unvote Isis.

There's a lot to unpack here.

This is blatant misrep and I'm not sure if this is coming from town or scum.

@Hikari: You say let's go deeper but you still only do a surface-level read. I think you're speaking a foreign language at times. By going deeper I mean reading beyond the words and delving into the author's intent, consistency, and mindset. Don't look at the words, feel the emotional energy that resonates from them. That's what I do.

Please don't try and coach me. You're not explaining anything. That's all I said. It's still true. Your "emotions" aren't conveyed very well.

hellbooks dedicates a full post to discouraging a scum-threatening townblock from developing around hayasaka in a setup where she can't be killed before getting a chance to mention it.

I didn't like dedicating a post to that either, but this post feels like a bit of a stretch to me on what is happening.

Agreed but it does not help that I think hellbooks flips scum here.

[Hiraki]

1) Explain how it's a misrep by explaining why your unvote isn't related to that post by Isis.

That's not what you said.

2) I make a request of you in order to better understand you and you refuse by calling it coaching? And then you act like the onus is on me.

Everyone else is able to play the game normally, just fine. No foreign languages required.

You're trying to say that the red house is looking plaid.

You cannot be serious. People are bringing this up because

this

is what is a foreign language. Stop with the houses shit, it doesn't help anyone.

Can you give one straight answer?

Can you give one straight question? One that you're not going to twist the next time you ask it? If the answer is still no, then non.

or is deflection your default state of existence?

I'd love to live in a deflection house, sure.

[Hiraki]

Ooo, scary!

[Hiraki]

Well, if that's correct, then you should have no problem rallying a wagon right?

[Hiraki]

Wow, haven't seen anyone butthurt over being wrong in a game in awhile. Casey even avoids when other people call her out lol.

[Hiraki]

Do I have to spell it out?
*sigh*
VOTE: clone

p-edit: eh.

Please? You're already voting Clone. I can't even take your posts very seriously anymore.

[Hiraki]

Just to really emphasize the above, your posts seem like prod dodges.

[Hiraki]

townie entrance post and zero activity with a huge wagon on him on page 13. Is that almost ever a scum slot

Yes?!?!

[Hiraki]

I felt that your second part is just how the rules work. The game could technically end with one dunk if things were planned carefully enough.

[Hiraki]

Pedit: That's a bad idea. Always better to see the flip before the next dunk.

I wasn't saying that I wanted to do that. Just that it could happen.

[Hiraki]

Kind of want Nono to be modkilled. I haven't seen such a blatant lack of trying from post 1. Phone posting due to power going byebye.

@A50 - you're missing the point above. Wey already said in a prior post that he "suspected" them due to not posting. The question isn't about suspicion at that point, it's about reasoning. I don't really care about the argument of whether the suspicion is valid - that's semantics to me. What isn't semantics is that he is clearly calling them out for not posting.

[Hiraki]

I'm sure Hiraki is plotting this right now.

You could see if I was doing that and I literally can't be doing that based off of the VCs. Why would I say it too? Oooo, am I going to foil my ingenious plan here by...explaining it?!?!

This is Hiraki literally describing his own behavior and attributing it to me.

lol we have 3 people once you look at the below but sure, it's me.

According to this ruling by Ruby Red, it is impossible for a double elimination to occur by chance.

I don't get what you mean here. I think it proves the opposite, actually.

Does this time where we're waiting for a flip count against us?

I would assume yes since the rules don't say anything for it. Might be something for the Mod to consider. The counter argument is that it is nightless so there's no reason to wait but it's weak.

[Hiraki]

Sell me on Spicer.

[Hiraki]

Sell me on Spicer.

Weird question.

Hiraki also looks bad for defending Wey earlier, bit I'm hesitant here because it was almost too blatant.

I was never defending Wey, I was attacking your line of thinking. I still don't really get the scum case against him but a red flip is a red flip.

Sell me on Spicer.

Weird question.

Hiraki also looks bad for defending Wey earlier, bit I'm hesitant here because it was almost too blatant.

Hiraki may have done that by instinct.

Instinct? You think I play mafia with instinct? Have you seen me post even once in this game?

I also - have to be very honest - that I have just put two and two together that Wey is the same as Clone. There's way too many names for that slot.

[Hiraki]

Don't you remember the conversation we had several days ago where you were saying what else could he possibly have meant and I thought that he might have not even suspected those slots given his use of the word many instead of all but didn't say so because I didn't want to give him an answer to Marksman's question?

I am not following this at all. Can you quote please?

Yes. My hypothesis is that no scum are on the wagon. To test the hypothesis, we could dunk two people that are not on the wagon. If both of them flips town, the hypothesis is wrong. If one of them flip scum, we continue to dunk more people who were off the wagon, I guess. If the two we dunk turn out to be town, I don't know what to do.

So you've now left mafia up to a betting game?

UNVOTE: isis
Why are people voting spicer?
they have one post.

Correct- which is why I asked sell me and got a nice little "why would you ask that lol??"

[Hiraki]

This is a small sample of the times we spent together a long time ago. By the way, in looking for those posts, the following posts caught my eye.

Right - are you saying that I'm defending him? Again - I don't know how I'm defending him if he didn't say anything. You're insinuating what Marksman said that I've "given him the answer" to the easiest scumtell quiz in the world. If that's what you wanna go for, go for it. I don't really think it's necessary to talk about it further considering that we've done this multiple times now across different people.

You bet that this player is the scum

Ah, see? That's currently not what you're doing. You're betting that the scum team (which I'd like to remind everyone is now 3) is in a pool of 6. So, even if you are correct, you've now drained the pool down to 6 people, out of 13, with 3 of them being scum. That is a low betting game.

If they win the bet, they get a slight advantage if they manage to place some more correct bets. If they are wrong, they bet again.

What is the slight advantage? Being right? That doesn't exist. You can be right about one thing and then wrong about another. Being right about one thing does not mean you will be right about another. It just means you will be more influential. If that is the advantage, that is certainly not an advantage I would think a townsperson would have.

[Hiraki]

I can agree with Lavender.

Vote: Lavender

[Hiraki]

VOTE: Spicer

I am a strong advocate of killing people to save the mod replacement troubles.

It does draw a question right? If we get to 0 minutes and we have a replacement outstanding, what will happen?

@Mod: I'd like you to address this. As well as not pausing the timer on Twilight.

I'm not too good at reads and base them off of previous times I played with them and more data I guess.

You have twenty pages of data at this point. (Probably less but let's not digress.)

You're a monster.

Okay - I'm here to play a game. If you're gonna be a dick to me - trust me - I can reciprocate. I've criticized you for things in the game and I haven't even thought about trying to go after your character. I'd hope you'd do the same.

[Hiraki]

Vote: Chemical Elements

[Hiraki]

this was completely not game related or AI how can you get pings from this wtf

622 and 623 are very game-related.

If they're genuine and you're enjoying yourself so much after Wey was dunked, it's town-indicative.

This isn't worth doing an argument here about it but I agree with IV. NAI.

@Almost50: Your votes are on the most sane person here, the ESL guy who I swear I thought you said was town and is NOT in your #328, and your only comment on hellbooks as far as I can tell is that he's mafia if someone else flips mafia.

Your vote on Wey is good at least. One out of four ain't bad.

Now, as this post was made before WeyounsLastClone was dunked, this opens up the possibility that Casey was bussing WeyounsLastClone.
UNVOTE: Hiraki
VOTE: Casey
The rest of the post Casey made is below.

@all - Almost time for the first dunk. Should be innocentvillager for the fake/forced tone.

This is almost a scum claim from my PoV.

As a matter of fact, I am willing to vote marks, Nono, and hellbooks. I also don't mind voting any of the other people I talked about in my 328 post, but I doubt Lav is aligned with either of WLC ot hellbooks (whom I've corrected her name TWICE from "hellbox", so if I ever appear to be calling her that you know it's not intended.)


You know what?

VOTE: Marksman
VOTE: Nono
VOTE: hellbooks
VOTE: WLC (The full version of that name is too annoying to type)

Chemical Elements gets a pass for now (sheeping Elements)

I am also warming up to vote for spicer & Hayasaka (they have yet to post at this point, but I will wait to see when and what they post.

Walk me through this? Might be the hangover.

I like Raya's reads but I don't know anything about her in general.

@anyone Is it wrong for me to hold weight in these associations or do you think this is a game that D1 bussing is likely

No, I agree.

Why?

VOTE: Hayasaka

Currently at post 459.

Hiraki I am ignoring for my own personal health. I don't need another gaslighter in my life.

If I am hurting your "personal health", then walk away from the keyboard. I've done literally nothing to you. It's a game.

[Hiraki]

Vote: A50 - D-1

Compromise vote. If we get this dunk, then hellbooks dies right after (pending any unvotes which would be annoying). This will speed up the game, give reads and flips.

A50's slot hasn't been scummy to me. His lack of voting at this point is anti-town but I don't think he's doing it out of scum intentions.

[Hiraki]

So we're going to just sit around and get nothing done? Cool, cool.

[Hiraki]

"I don't think he's scum, and I don't think what he's doing has scum motivation, but I'm voting him anyway".

Yeah, I'm aware of what I said. We're at a stand still and the game has 8 days left before scum win (just in case people think that getting to zero is a 'happily ever after' scenario). I tried to compromise between both sides and was shot down. Simplifying what I said and not including that point is misleading.

I do NOT wish for there to be multiple dunks in sequence without us being able to reevaluate after each of them.

Okay, good to know. My vote is definitely staying on then since you decided not to vote in this post.

Right now I am trying to figure out what dunk improves my reads the most, and -until I do- I am not voting. It's not like my vote will decide the game. We're far too far away from D-lo still, and 1 vote out of 13 is insignificant.

Can you guarantee that you'll be watching this thread like a hawk for the last 72 hours of the game? Because that is exactly what you're implying. This game ends in less than one week. We have gotten rid of 2/14 in half of the game's time. We need to at the very

minimum

eliminate 3 more people. At the current pace, this will

not

happen.

Additionally, saying that we're not close to D-lo implies that you're okay with the more CRUCIAL eliminations in this game having LESS time. ???????????????????????????????????????

[Hiraki]

Unvote: A50

[Hiraki]

If you think CE is town, you have to also explain why you think his current theory is even slightly correct and not ignoring 90% of the game. Thanks.

[Hiraki]

Unvote: Lavender

[Hiraki]

Yeah, no need to berate here IV. Casey still flips town here. It's time for some red dunks.

[Hiraki]

chem and i literally cannot be scum together lol

[Hiraki]

Is it really 1.2%?

[Hiraki]

good, hopefully we can see this to the end together then

[Hiraki]

It is ironic you asked that question yet you have no opinion on the last three lynches other than continue your plan.

[Hiraki]

*dunks

oopsie

[Hiraki]

And we're now at Page 34 of the game and you are currently D-1 and your response is I don't have a plan? After I told you your plan was useless and nonsensical on page something?

[Hiraki]

@Mod: Can we prod Lavender? She last posted in this thread on Sunday at 3 AM EST.

[Hiraki]

I have trouble reconciling Lavender scum after that slot was on D-1 for so long. Still don't see how kek xD is town.

[Hiraki]

Lavender has been D-3 to D-1 since Votecount 2.2. Is your point that I said the words D-1 rather than "large wagon"?

[Hiraki]

let me just quote people and then say scum and people will just vote with me!! it looks a little long but heck, no one is reading me anyway!

[Hiraki]

first reaction = pure reaction and he slipped RED!!! wasn’t “seen the red pm,” was “DIDN’T see the GREEN pm”

go ahead and make sense of this on Isis, I'll wait - i have much more to pile on if you wanna start calling this good analysis

and believe me, i know how to write good shitposts. these are not. plus the cheeky spoiler text as if that was to unveil his ~true power level~

[Hiraki]

get ready to quit my guy

[Hiraki]

No, I sound very upset because no one is reading his post

[Hiraki]

So you believe the part that he is too scummy to be scum?

[Hiraki]

You're asking me what changed between 300 posts?

P-edit: yeah lav is town lmao

[Hiraki]

Do you genuinely consider 880 to be a scummy post? I don't think I'm confbiasing, to the extent it's flawed it looks like genuine effort to solve the game, not disingenuous because there's an agenda

Yes. There are multiple points that show a clear agenda rather than scumhunting. The way it's formatted gives rise to the fact that it looks spotty but I don't think it actually is when you keep people in mind and then put it altogether (myself included). The part about Weyoun are the parts that give me the most redflags when read in collaboration with the other items. Give me an hour, maybe two. It'll be a little large.

[Hiraki]

Let's start out with the following summary of what Nono attempts to do.

1) Clear his own name why he can't be scum.
2) Why A50, Raya, and Evilvilager are the scumteam.
3) Conclusion that takes Weyoun's post and uses it as evidence why two is still correct.

For 1, we have the following rationale -

A) Nono was on Clone since the beginning.
B) Clone OMGUS'd.
C) Nono is too scummy to be scum.

A) This is 100% true. I'm not going to deny that. What I am going to deny is any and all idea that this brags town points. You stuck with a read since RVS, didn't expand on it after RVS, and then hammered it. How are we supposed to think that's town rather than you taking a buss approach? You genuinely fit the bill for a buss "clear" gone wrong. You didn't say anything about clone except vote him out, you just went along with a read from RVS that was a psuedo-OMGUS (which we'll get to in a second). Why on earth would that clear you or take suspicion off of you? If anything that is part of the reason

why

I think your slot is so strange. Acting like a mastermind doesn't help your case once you do this "surprise! I knew I was doing all along!" either. No one picked up on that irony?

B) I want to take this part very slowly because I think we're missing something here. Part of this narrative is screwed in Nono's favor.

1) why it ain’t me

first (real) clone vote,,

Fun started without me!

vote: innocentvillager

I guess voting for everyone gets things going, but as long as it includes me it can't be a correct list

scum

I didn't see the extra pages. O.o

town

snip

town

VOTE: WeyounsLastClone
UNVOTE: hellbooks

second (real) clone vote,,

oops
VOTE: villager
same marksman, VOTE: clone

let me hammer please
kbai

“why did you vote, nono?”? agreed with marksie first post was scummy,, fake confidence on my part, and what did clone do?

NoNo, can you post a bit more coherent thoughts behind your votes?

Vote: NoNo

omgus LOL! think about me as town, for a moment, just a moment, it’s not hard,, that’s scumclaim. scum come after me cause I’m ez delicious bait,, been trying to get scum on my wagon for the whole game (thank me later)

NEVER, and I repeat NEVER, was off clone’s back after that

There's multiple problems here. Kind of want to go backwards because it's easier to think that way for me. First, Nono calls out Weyoun for OMGUSing. I want to make it clear I don't have a problem with this point. I think it's an OMGUS but what I do have a problem with is that Nono considers it to be the end all. This is the

last

we hear about Weyoun. We don't hear anything in comparison to me, just about this OMGUS. An OMGUS on Page 3 is how Nono decided that Weyoun would be scum? If you keep reading on, Marksman actually asks Nono about this -

Perhops.

Nono, I have some very important questions to solve your alignment. I suggest you think carefully about them and answer when you're ready.

1) Why the name "Nono"?
2) Please rank [No, Nah, Nope, Nay] in order of preference.
3) What were you getting at in 286 and 293?

no, non, nono,, just liked it)
meh
repeated "good" point, or should I say "cloned"

I'm pretty convinced by this that Nono had nothing else to post about for Weyoun based on both of these posts, which Nono linked in his original text. I don't see how that "clears" him and it reeks of an early game buss.

C)

it’s not hard,, that’s scumclaim. scum come after me cause I’m ez delicious bait,, been trying to get scum on my wagon for the whole game (thank me later)

The height of the Nono wagon on Day 1 was -

Votecount 1.4

Target	Wagon
innocentvillager (L-2)	Marksman, WeyounsLastClone, Lavender, hellbooks, Chemical Elements, Nono
Nono (L-2)	Isis, innocentvillager, Chemical Elements, Hiraki, WeyounsLastClone, Elements
Isis (L-4)	innocentvillager, Marksman, Chemical Elements, Elements
hellbooks (L-5)	Hiraki, innocentvillager, Elements
Lavender (L-5)	innocentvillager, hellbooks, Chemical Elements
WeyounsLastClone (L-5)	innocentvillager, Marksman, Nono
spicer1209 (L-5)	innocentvillager, Chemical Elements, Marksman
Casey (L-5)	innocentvillager, Chemical Elements, Marksman
Marksman (L-6)	Hiraki, innocentvillager
Hayasaka (L-6)	innocentvillager, Marksman
Hiraki (L-7)	Marksman
Chemical Elements (L-7)	innocentvillager
ileileile (L-7)	innocentvillager
Not Voting (4)	spicer1209, Casey, Hayasaka, ileileile

With 14 alive, it's 8 to dunk on someone.
(expired on 2020-08-16 14:58:59) until our one-time promotional offer ends.

Other than IV, Nono will eventually claim that -

CE is ultra town.
Isis is not part of the game solve.
Hiraki is not part of the game solve.
Elements flipped green.

A50 does join the wagon later but that's not the point. At most, Nono's current 'scuminess' has 3/4 scum on his wagon. How is that too scummy to be scum? It's a majority town wagon from his POV. There's just too much here that Nono says "well, everyone suspected me! Duh! I'm not scum!" that is thrown at the dart board and completely misses.

2) Raya, A50 and EV are the gamesolve?

A) Raya

I want to start here first because I think Raya is the most flagrant use of agenda over scumhunting. Both posts - side by side -

Okay, Raya. You need to look at the reasons I scumread Wey for and determine whether they were legitimate or fabricated ones for a planned bus.

Will do

As far as your first vote on him goes it was the first vote on the wagon aside from inno's vote which doesn't really count.

Correct me if I'm wrong but you scumread him for finding players who haven't posted yet to be suspicious. You questioned him about this which means you were giving him a chance.

You said we should dunk around now when Wey was tied at D-2 and you specifically said you'd be fine with Wey being dunked as well as someone much farther from being dunked. So clearly if you're partners with Wey there was 0 intent of trying to save him. You were off the wagon for a bit and stopped mentioning him so maybe you realized there'd be no saving him and the towncred was better than helping him live.

Then from there you were committed to his dunk as he was the top on your list of who you wanted to dunk next.

Tell me why you couldn't have just been early distancing from Wey then later when he was essentially destined to be dunked bussing him?

You said something about page 15 making you put inno down as town, and Marksman down as scum. Could you go into that?

To clarify it wasn't solely page 15. It just happened to be when I was reading 15 that I felt more confident even unrelated since I was thinking about the past pages as well.

For Inno:
-I had been agreeing with most of what he said
-He was pushing for more activity page 15
-His take in 358 seems more like something scum would turn into a scumread. Not townread them for it. I strongly think that was a more town approach to that read
-359 is good too. Maybe biased since it's my slot and I know I'm town but the fact that he defended a highly voted wagon that's conftown to me when as scum he could have just let it get eliminated. Especially in this set-up. He also continues to defend my slot.

For Marksman:
-Honestly mainly tonal
-Also biased that you keep fighting for my slot to be dunked this page and arguing with Inno who is a pretty strong townread for me
-I disagree with you saying pressure votes don't work
-You also say in 366 that Inno is a bit towny but then have him as number 3 in your dunk list.

BAD,, first paragraph recap, second (part one) “tr because he trd me” is SO WEIRD, when the reasons were SO WEIRD, y’all seeing it??? marksie read is ????

First, Raya is going over the facts and showing her line of logic. What part of the recap itself is actually bad? Second, that recap goes into a question. What exactly is bad about that?

Second for someone who is "too scummy to be scum", where is "TR because he TR'd me"? That doesn't show up

anywhere

in that post. If this is talking about IV's defense, that has nothing to do with a town read and more to do with the defense. It's clear manipulation of the facts to try and say that has to do with "TR because he TR'd me".

Nono then goes over how Raya wants to vote Nono. However, she doesn't. So why does the idea of putting a vote down cause a scumtell? This also makes our count 9/13 which means that 3 people now abnormally never scumread Nono.

I'm going to pause here for now because it's late but I will continue and finish tomorrow. Again - please please please re-read the ending of his post. There's absolutely no one called out there other than trying to clear 3 people at the top because Weyoun is predictable...?

[Hiraki]

@Hiraki - What's your read on your supreme follower?

I am slowly but surely getting town vibes. It has taken awhile though.

First, Raya is going over the facts and showing her line of logic. What part of the recap itself is actually bad? Second, that recap goes into a question. What exactly is bad about that?

I criticized Raya on this too. Do you disagree with my reasons?

Almost all of the reasons seem really fake, but the only reason I'm hesitant is because why does scum!Raya enter the game scumreading Marksman over other people who had more votes?

These reasons? Am I even supposed to believe they are legitimate?

Flawed "correlation = causation" arguments are the words I was looking for regarding that Raya post.

Here's the thing that I can smell that you want to be wrong.

You're starting with the conclusion, and trying to find a suitable reason for it. Like, working backwards from your answer. Why is that more likely than me scumreading and wanting to dunk Wey?

Meanwhile, here's what Raya said:

You said we should dunk around now when Wey was tied at D-2 and you specifically said you'd be fine with Wey being dunked as well as someone much farther from being dunked. So clearly if you're partners with Wey there was 0 intent of trying to save him. You were off the wagon for a bit and stopped mentioning him so maybe you realized there'd be no saving him and the towncred was better than helping him live.

Meanwhile, here was your question to Raya -

Okay, Raya. You need to look at the reasons I scumread Wey for and determine whether they were legitimate or fabricated ones for a planned bus.

So why can't she do that again? Because she needs to take exactly what you said for granted?

@Hiraki: "Acting like a mastermind doesn't help your case once you do this 'surprise! I knew I was doing all along!' either."

Maybe it's a surprise to you, but to those of us who had been paying attention to Nono, we already knew this.

This has literally nothing to do with my point but thanks for the small jab!

"First, Nono calls out Weyoun for OMGUSing. I want to make it clear I don't have a problem with this point. I think it's an OMGUS but what I do have a problem with is that Nono considers it to be the end all. This is the last we hear about Weyoun. We don't hear anything in comparison to me, just about this OMGUS. An OMGUS on Page 3 is how Nono decided that Weyoun would be scum?"

Sounds legit to me. Catching a mafia on page 3 and then seeing evidence pile up beyond that isn't that far-fetched.

Which is why Nono references all of this evidence, right?

"I don't see how that "clears" him and it reeks of an early game buss."

And yet my posts about Wey were nearly the same and I'm magically town to you. Uh huh.

Again - has literally nothing to do with what I'm talking about but thanks for the slight jab!

[Hiraki]

So why can't she do that again? Because she needs to take exactly what you said for granted?

Just to go into this more, my point is that it feels like you expected a rationale from Raya and since you didn't get it, she must be scum?

[Hiraki]

I wanted her to talk about my reasons for scumreading Wey and whether she found them legitimate or bussy. Instead, she looked at what I did (like scumreading and committing to dunk Wey) and then tried to draw conclusions of how that could come from scum, instead of thinking about what scum is likely to do, and then seeing whether that's what I was doing. So again, working backwards from the conclusion.

What permits scum not to be able to buss based on reasoning? Wouldn't timing be more important? Ignoring the facts until it's less convenient to do so? I don't get your point here about reasoning. It's feeling more and more like a gotcha.

[Hiraki]

No you didn't. You posted about his RVS, we had a discussion about him, you told him that you couldn't really gauge his alignment from your previous question, and then you said you were worried about his number one scumread. Sure, you left your vote on him. That isn't pushing though.

[Hiraki]

Oh beautiful, 933 will sit nicely with the end of Nono's post.

[Hiraki]

yeah yeah, it was all my fault casey, you never voted anyone

when nono and marksman flip red, just remember those were my D1 reads

[Hiraki]

yeah whatever, master mafia player casey

[Hiraki]

XDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD

[Hiraki]

I can't wait for Casey to blow up when she goes 1/2 and start shittalking me from the grave even harder. What a cool club.

[Hiraki]

i think my biggest regret this game is that i still don't think any of the mislynches were bad

and while i know that's not an excuse for taking an L here (which i'm pretty confident this becomes) it just annoys me

[Hiraki]

The hellbooks dunk was real bad actually

pressure applied with no improvement on play

negative

[Hiraki]

Nono/Marksman/?

[Hiraki]

We need to flip Hiraki
The moaning about us doing so bad that we are only twice the size of the scumteam seems fake
Nono still isn't scum

i don't disagree with the first part

nono does flip scum

[Hiraki]

inno knows i flip green

[Hiraki]

yeah yeah, it was all my fault casey, you never voted anyone

when nono and marksman flip red, just remember those were my D1 reads

This deflection is bad

this isn't even deflection lol

[Hiraki]

yeah yeah, it was all my fault casey, you never voted anyone

when nono and marksman flip red, just remember those were my D1 reads

This deflection is bad

this isn't even deflection lol

But it is. Casey points out why you might be scum. You turn around and say that she never voted anyone

that's not what i'm doing? i'm just saying that she's on a high horse but she hasn't done as much?

Like he can be town AND a hateful person at the same time. That's not unheard of.

still a game lol

[Hiraki]

Lavender, me or Nono - vote in your next post. Thanks.

[Hiraki]

Lavender, me or Nono - vote in your next post. Thanks.

[Hiraki]

i'd like to think i can't go 0-4

[Hiraki]

yknow, even a blind squirrel finds a nut or something something

[Hiraki]

i find it harder to believe that IV is scum here but that is partially because i am green

even if i am wrong about nono - there's more reason to not hesitate here rather than to hesitate like he did

[Hiraki]

my TR of lav actually died a lot considering there was no vote on me or nono considering that lav has said i was scummy before and nono was town. but it's moreso that there was no vote rather than the reads

i think what's interesting about this game is that scum

can

hang around and do nothing but since town can also inadvertently sit back, they don't need to do anything past the minimum + 1

[Hiraki]

wow top 1 worst town games nice

[Hiraki]

which one of you guys is just laughing i really wanna know

[Hiraki]

UNVOTE:

[Hiraki]

i keep handing out mislynches, im gonna just sheep, if you're scum being cocky you deserve it

[Hiraki]

tbh if you guys are gung ho against me, i'd rather be the lynch today so i don't feel bad for being the LYLO mislynch

[Hiraki]

i don't have much, the stats are stats - 0-4

all of my scumreads flip town

the only thing to do next would be to flip my townreads but i have no intention of doing that

[Hiraki]

Who are you scumreading again?

No one - I'm fearful to scumread anyone. That being said, I'll draw the first move. I don't really know if this flips scum because I don't know if anything flips scum at this rate but I know at least that if this is scum, it would be very annoying to see this slot win.

Vote: Lavender

[Hiraki]

If I had to make a team, I'd be throwing darts. Probably Marksman/Isis/Lavender but again, throwing darts.

[Hiraki]

Vote: Hiraki

come on boys, just get this over with - then lavendar, then isis then figure it out

[Hiraki]

and gals

[Hiraki]

@Mod: Not that it matters but I am also voting Lavender.

fixed.
-rr

[Hiraki]

Like, everybody has been ruling out IV (and even I did so based on him being early on Wey), but after 6 dunks I find myself second guessing that read. Why does IV appear on each and every dunked wagon?

multiple reasons - all of which i feel like i've highlighted earlier

Picture this thought going through your mind:

IV could be scum because he's on each and every dunk
Lav could be scum because she hasn't been on a single dunk

Can you see my dilemma? I dunno if scum are helping town misdunk or letting town do all the dirty work.

honestly if i had my way, lav would be mod killed but that's why im not a mod because i'd probably be banned after my first game

Inno, what makes you even think people trust you enough to warrant that?

i do and im gonna be flipped next to show green baby

just to clarify:

letting Casey decide will be AT LEAST as good as random.
letting town collectively decide with this much time left is PROBABLY SIGNIFICANTLY WORSE THAN RANDOM.

for reference (using the same simulation i talked about earlier):

random is 70% assuming me and Casey are town
random is 40% assuming Casey is town

oh my goddd the true leader speaks the TRUTH

Honestly, if Hiraki is town their reads have been sadsadsadsadsadsadsadsadsadsad.
_o--<

fuck off you haven't even played the game - if you flip town, i rarely post "epitaph" posts after the game has ended but i've been thinking and a lot of the reasons why this game went badly is because town didn't have their A-Game

to be very clear, i am not saying I'm on my A-Game but shit like chem or nono were obv town is an absolute fucking lie

[Hiraki]

ATM Day 7 reads

Isis=Lavender>>>>>marksman>a50>Raya>>>>>>>>>>Casey>Inno

I think that's everyone

[Hiraki]

accidentally hammering is better now more than ever, no?

[Hiraki]

Watch it be Inno and Casey and like Isis or something insane like that.

i dont think it's inno but casey wouldn't surprise me at this point

[Hiraki]

I really do flip town here still so please make sure if you have a vote and you're not scum that you've unvoted at this point (per last VC, we're good on this but this applies to the end of the game at this rate). I think Raya is a bad choice but I am also 0-5 this game. Not hitting great. I still stick hard with my Marksman read, could be 0-6.

Good luck!

[Hiraki]

the only reason i'm glad we didn't flip you yet is because i would be the LYLO lynch

[Hiraki]

I also don't see how me going green means Raya-red but I'm willing to be wrong here.

[Hiraki]

I do think the solve is Marksman/Isis/?

Clearly not a good track record for me but that's my final guess. Lav? I guess for X?

I didn't like Isis' buddying with the votes situation. Felt like fake pocketing to me.

[Hiraki]

how do you feel about A50?

and how do you feel about my hypothesis that lav/isis are not partners because these interactions don't look SvS:

A50/Lav is the part I'm not sold on. It could go either way. I think they should be kept for the absolute last day.

[Hiraki]

yeah i will take the L here with the goons that was fantastic