Open 794 Pick Your Power X/Y (finished)

[Umlaut]

Ego

Kind of busy today, I'll play catch-up later

[Umlaut]

Okay, I'm starting to read

This is going to be one of those games that hits page 80 halfway through day 1 and I never quite catch up, isn't it

[Umlaut]

sorry; i'll obligatorily yell at the next person who enters the thread.

Hi!

[Umlaut]

Thanks for that, TW.

Page 1:

Nothing happened.

Page 2:

• Like the early move away from random voting by Datisi (even though I don't really get the reasons for voting Gypyx) and the admission of bias in 33.
  
• Dislike Grumpy coming in and saying "I want Gypyx exiled so I'll vote for... someone else."
  
• Hoopla's data collection seems like more work than scum would do; it's easy enough to say "probably scum chose different numbers" because of course town will think of that, but actually verifying this empirically is unnecessary if it were just for town cred.

Page 3:

• Has anyone compared Hoopla's tally of scum draft numbers to the tally of
  town
  draft numbers? Not sure what it would prove if anything but it was the first thing I thought of when I saw the histogram.
  
• Gypyx' 71 is pretty weak, agreed with Icon there, though more at the level of "yeah that is weird" than "yes this is definitely scum."

Page 4:

• Icon's 88 and then 97 are actually kind of weirdly uncharitable, "why did you try to answer Datisi when he asked you something" questions.
  
• 98 is a good question to ask, was wondering the same as I haven't seen any reasoning against Icon so far.

Page 5:

• 105 is pinging me a bit, isn't "the bit where we actually play mafia" exactly what Icon is doing with his points about Gypyx? Why not engage that more?
  
• 115 - Why on earth would you take Hoopla's plan seriously enough to object to it? I assumed it was a shitpost.

Page 6:

• Gut town pings from Marquis' intro
  
• Gut scum pings from DrDoolittle's intro
  
• 135 - slowpoke.jpg
  
• I like how iamausername is picking up on what I am from S_S' 115, and I think S_S' reply looks willfully obtuse.

Page 7:

• GC's 155 is actually a pretty good point.
  
• Word's intro is just fluff, fluff, fluff.

Page 8:

My eyes glazed over a quarter of the way down the page.

Okay I only have a couple pages to go but I kind of want to vote for S_S at the moment. So I will.

VOTE: Something_Smart

[Umlaut]

Oh cool, more pages.

Page 9:

• Feel like GrumpyCat is towning up. 211 is good analysis.
  
• 218 is good mech work but I hope reads are generally going to be strong enough to outweigh things like that (but then Hoopla says that too in 219[/post).
  
• S_S reaction to Hoopla's vote pings me but I can't say why, maybe it's just confbias speaking.

Page 10:

• Okay, I didn't realize how serious Hoopla was about the plan to kill from the top of the draft list. More reasonable for S_S to take it seriously as something to discuss in that case.
  
• Actually I'm more agreeing with S_S' side of the PR importance debate.
  
• TW completely missing in [post]230 that GC answered his question makes me wonder if TW actually cares about the answer as much as he's acting.
  
• 243 - did you ever go further into what's wrong with calling S_S' post "fake"? Because I kind of vibed with that description.

Page 11:

• I don't think anyone actually wants to play this game as a pure logic puzzle and I don't think there's any need to repeatedly say "let's not do that" as if there were any risk of it happening.
  
• Re. 258, I'm reluctant to take Clover's question seriously as a towntell. Town got burned badly in a recent game I was in by a less experienced player doing just that (asking a lot of "questions like these" about mechanics and whether scum could talk during the day etc., purely for the sake of looking town).
  
• DrDoolittle wifoming the setup analysis bothers me. Like in 265, do you actually think that's something scum would do purely to throw us off, vs. the chance to claim an additional PR (and potentially deprive town of one as well)? I just don't see how you can actually think this is a thing scum decides to do.
  Considers
  sure,
  actually does
  no.

Okay I caught up with my last catch-up so now it's time for lunch! At this rate I'm sure I'll be fully caught-up any week now.

[Umlaut]

Oh cool, more pages.

is this just how you're going to play?

Probably not, but who knows!

(Really, probably not, this is just what I do to try and force myself to read and form some kind of thoughts instead of just skimming everything and realizing at the end that I don't remember any of it)

[Umlaut]

Town got burned badly in a recent game I was in by a less experienced player doing just that (asking a lot of "questions like these" about mechanics and whether scum could talk during the day etc., purely for the sake of looking town).

Link pl0x

viewtopic.php?f=84&t=83575

CreativeMod1 confirmed in postgame that "All of my noob town-tells were 100% fake and planned"

[Umlaut]

Just so I'm not a complete ass, here, because Umlaut has suggested IRL reasons for not being as active as he might otherwise be (so the inactivity itself isn't AI). There's a sense of Umlaut's catch-up posts are more like detached observations rather than any attempt to really engage. No engagement is safer for scum because that never requires devolving into argument where you might actually have to put rubber to the road and evict a towns person based on the back of your bad reasons.

I don't historically find making cases and engaging with other players to be that hard as scum. I know self-meta is terrible but I actually find it a bit easier to get engaged with the early game when I can just make up reads and feign confidence in them instead of having to form real reads and have actual confidence.

[Umlaut]

what do you make of his second badpost?

Can you specify which one you're talking about?

[Umlaut]

I think S_S' reply looks willfully obtuse.

It was a little willfully obtuse, yes. But I felt like username wasn't saying what he really thought about my post, because "fake" was vague and generic and didn't really make sense in context.

"Yes I am being willfully obtuse" is... not the defense I was expecting, and I don't know what to think of it.

Hoopla's data collection seems like more work than scum would do; it's easy enough to say "probably scum chose different numbers" because of course town will think of that, but actually verifying this empirically is unnecessary if it were just for town cred.


115 - Why on earth would you take Hoopla's plan seriously enough to object to it? I assumed it was a shitpost.

these contradict each other

Not really, "scum chose different numbers from one another" and "I propose we just start executing from the top of the list" are two different things and I can agree with one while not taking the other seriously (though it seems like it was actually serious so (1) whoops and (2) no, let's not do that)

[Umlaut]

@umlaut both of these tbh

I mean those posts are not like stunning me with their brilliance but is there something in particular that pings you about them?

The first, I really sympathize with, this game is well beyond what I consider the sweet spot of activity and I tend to react the same way Clover says he is reacting (by just mindlessly scrolling through and then realizing I haven't actually read anything) unless I actively force myself to slog through, which is hard to do for something that is ultimately supposed to be a recreational activity.

The second, I don't really understand (why would you actively cultivate a style more specific than "identify the scum and get them yeeted") but I don't see the scum motivation either.

[Umlaut]

umlaut, so far my way of reading him has been "does he disremind me of the two scumgames of his that i modded" and the answer was yes and he was town and the answer right now is "no" and i'm aware that doesn't necessarily translate into him being scum but /shrug

Datisi can be town for this actually.

[Umlaut]

umlaut, so far my way of reading him has been "does he disremind me of the two scumgames of his that i modded" and the answer was yes and he was town and the answer right now is "no" and i'm aware that doesn't necessarily translate into him being scum but /shrug

Datisi can be town for this actually.

the wifom of "should umlaut be townreading me for this when the last time we played together and were t/t i used that as reasoning for townreading him (before voting him at eod but that's besides the point) and he liked it and therefore i would know he buys that reasoning from me so would theoretically know how to approach him as scum and he shouldn't be awarding me townpoints for it"

maybe i shouldn't be overthinking it

maybe i should

should i?

It's more that how you're reading me in this game is in line with how you read me in general. I concede I don't think I'm done anything way out of the "stuff I could do if I were scum" zone here so if you're reading me accordingly then that matches what I expect town!Datisi to think.

---

at the best of times, it takes me a while to really sink my teeth into a game (even one's without distracting mechanics). some of that stems from pessimism about D1 inaccuracy. like, i know you have to "fake it til you make it", so to speak, with early reads but ugh. townhunting i find somewhat easier d1, but like you, i tend to end up with a lot of null reads.

i've come to accept that that's okay on D1.

my de facto coping mechanism is aggressive bandwagoning on non-town reads. after a while, real information (wagons/claims etc) seep into the game and i find it easier.

There is something I dislike about this but I'm not sure how much of it is just that the post ends with a vote on me.

It seems more... apologetic? than I think is called for here, like it could just be omitted and skip right to the part where she says "i like clover, grumpy cat, crayons for town" etc. More talking about herself than talking about other players which is what town should be more interested in doing.

[Umlaut]

I've kind of liked / vibed with everything username has posted so far so I really don't get what's fueling that wagon.

[Umlaut]

There is something I dislike about this but I'm not sure how much of it is just that the post ends with a vote on me.

hmm lets test it out;

...


at the best of times, it takes me a while to really sink my teeth into a game (even one's without distracting mechanics). some of that stems from pessimism about D1 inaccuracy. like, i know you have to "fake it til you make it", so to speak, with early reads but ugh. townhunting i find somewhat easier d1, but like you, i tend to end up with a lot of null reads.

i've come to accept that that's okay on D1.

my de facto coping mechanism is aggressive bandwagoning on non-town reads. after a while, real information (wagons/claims etc) seep into the game and i find it easier.

VOTE: iconeum

Much better!

(My slowpoke.jpg aimed at Clover keeps getting more and more ironic)

[Umlaut]

Actually I unironically like the Iconeum wagon, 530 kind of sold me on it and I feel pretty good about both Grumpy and Hoopla for town (GC I'm more eh about but not explicitly scumreading)

VOTE: Iconeum

[Umlaut]

I mean like I could make up some fresh hot takes to impress everyone with my original and unique perspective but overall I think it's probably better to just say what I actually think instead.

[Umlaut]

btw @Umlaut where do you read that Hoopla has ever been not serious this game?

I thought (1) that Hoopla's initial post 14 was just goofing around, and (2) that that was what S_S was responding to. I'm not sure about the first but the second was definitely not the case.

[Umlaut]

Okay, Username is either town or going out of his way to pocket me (which is working if so)

[Umlaut]

Actually I unironically like the Iconeum wagon, 530 kind of sold me on it and I feel pretty good about both Grumpy and Hoopla for town (GC I'm more eh about but not explicitly scumreading)

VOTE: Iconeum

that 530 is extremely wrong, which i already explained so i'm very much pinged that you are not even talking about my counter to it

VOTE: umlaut

That post is weird for another reason too actually. Umlaut says he likes me for town, but then clarifies he's eh on me but isn't "explicitly scumreading" me. Why does he clarify he's not scumreading me if he just said he liked me for town? Seems like a weird disconnect.

GC there is Green Crayons, didn't notice it was ambiguous until I saw this reply

[Umlaut]

Actually I unironically like the Iconeum wagon, 530 kind of sold me on it and I feel pretty good about both Grumpy and Hoopla for town (GC I'm more eh about but not explicitly scumreading)

VOTE: Iconeum

that 530 is extremely wrong, which i already explained so i'm very much pinged that you are not even talking about my counter to it

VOTE: umlaut

Where did you do this? I'm looking for the explanation and can't find it.

[Umlaut]

Call me dense but I don't see how 536 rebuts Grumpy's point at all. I guess Icon is saying it's voting Gypyx again

because

of no new posts in the interim? It's possible but it just doesn't seem like a good reason to me. Not a lot of time has passed in this game at all so voting someone for "low activity" just because they're not constantly here spam posting is really a bad take.

540 I just don't think matters that much, of course it had

some

reason in mind for voting so demonstrating that doesn't make you town.

[Umlaut]

VOTE: umlaut wheeee

really wish I was scum this game I've tried to skim what I missed like 3 times but my eyes are glazing over I'm getting like no strong impressions of people and just want to get some flip to work off of

ppl probably going to bitch at me so I'll try to commit to a slow full read this weekend but right now I have 0 townreads which is annoying enough for me to want to just deal with this later

How hypocritical is it of me to want to elim Marquis based on this?

[Umlaut]

Actually thinking about it, yeah, I really don't like the combination of "I haven't read closely and don't have any real reads yet" and "I just want to flip someone"

[Umlaut]

I identified scum Day 1 in Large Normal 228 based on their expressing a similar combination of sentiments (see in that game) but didn't succeed in getting them voted out. I can't decide if this is exactly the same thing or I'm just forcing it to fit the pattern, though.

[Umlaut]

Er, that post link was 372

[Umlaut]

Someone asked me why Marquis' entrance townpinged me so now is a good time for me to try and figure that out.

hi VOTE: the worst

zzzz this already looks boring ill deal with things later

actually VOTE: gypyx l-1

I should have posted this yesterday but

V/LA until Thurs

This just seems like a very "I don't care how anyone reads me" entrance. I'd expect scum would think strategically about whom to vote so probably wouldn't come in and vote and then instantly change it, and particularly opening with an invitation to a reaction test like that (I really don't think Marquis believed they were putting Gypyx at L-1) seems like they're more interested in seeing what

other

people do and not so much interested in giving a particular impression themselves. I'd also expect scum not to come in on page 5 with an explicit announcement that they're not going to play right now, when Things are already happening in the game.

[Umlaut]

wahts ur take on Dats umlaut?

Probably town. Probably. I guess.

[Umlaut]

Im actually with umlaut on this one regarding marquis

That's funny because after reading the worst's reply I'm not sure I'm with myself on this one.

[Umlaut]

wahts ur take on Dats umlaut?

Probably town. Probably. I guess.

how, from 2 random questions without prior context, and no other kind of input on the thread arrived at that conclusion?

Bold of you to describe that reply as a "conclusion"

[Umlaut]

word, can I interest you in being bribed onto the marquis wagon? I have three relaly delicious breadcrumbs on offer.

Why aren't you offering me a bribe? I was thinking of voting Marquis anyway but now that I know there are bribes available I may have to hold out longer.

[Umlaut]

Somewhat caught up

Umlauts budding attempt wrt being bribed to vote doesn't make me wanna unvote

I definitely wasn't budding.

I don't really see how it's buddying, either. TW, are you feeling especially warm and buddy-like toward me after that comment?

[Umlaut]

Would be weird to bribe you to not vote yourself.

If only there were more than two people in the game, so that I could have other options

[Umlaut]

Yes but there's obviously a bandwagon competition going on rn.

Are you purposefully ignoring that, or just accidentally?

Yes I am obviously aware of it. Do you think I'm obligated to vote Marquis because I'm the other leading wagon at the moment?

[Umlaut]

I'm having a somewhat childish stubborn "You can't make me vote Marquis" reaction just because I dislike the suggestion that I'm

supposed

to, even though I would be happy to vote them on the merits if not for that pressure.

I'll get over myself and

VOTE: Marquis

(L-1)

(Or at least I'll make the vote and internally grumble about it and try to get over myself later)

[Umlaut]

It’s not that you’re supposed to, and tbh I wouldn’t care if you said “this is dumb and I’m not participating”

What DID catch my attention is you asking to be bribed in a way that ignores that tw is in the marquis/umlaut mindset

IDK I’m still thinking about it not sure really what it means

It was a dumb joke and I thought kind of an obvious one.

[Umlaut]

I still dislike this but it might just be my style of play then anything. I don't plan on hammering though!

This reads phony to me.

It seems like you're taking a position against the Marquis wagon but not one that would actually dissuade anyone from hammering it.

[Umlaut]

I still dislike this but it might just be my style of play then anything. I don't plan on hammering though!

This reads phony to me.

It seems like you're taking a position against the Marquis wagon but not one that would actually dissuade anyone from hammering it.

Yes that is because it's exactly what I'm doing. What's wrong with that?

If you think Marquis is scum there's no reason to be against the wagon.

If you think they're town you should try and push a better elim candidate.

If you have no idea you should try to get an idea.

Just "registering your objection" is what scum does with wagons on town that they expect to go through with or without their support.

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Clober Ebi

[Umlaut]

bbb

[Umlaut]

Happy Labor Day!



(This is an early prodge)

[Umlaut]

Hi A50! Somehow your predecessor's wagon cooled down significantly after a hella shady replace-out, but I think (and I doubt I'm alone in this) that you should claim anyway.

Why?

It's moot now because he did it, but why? I could maybe see if we were short on time but not with over 5 days on the clock.

[Umlaut]

I don't think "I personally want to eliminate this slot" is enough reason for them to claim if they're not about to get yeeted. Do you?

Anyway, happy with the replace-in because I am... actually kind of decent at reading A50, I think.

[Umlaut]

Or just elim A50

we can do that tomorrow if need be.

there's a chance we learn more about his slot via N1's results, so we may not need to guess on his slot today.

and we're not burning a mis-execution by taking the chance.

This sounds like you're saying you don't want to execute A50 today, but you're still voting him.

[Umlaut]

Only read the last couple pages but
VOTE: Gypyx (L-1)
You claim scum, you get what you're asking for.

[Umlaut]

I was going to read overnight but I... didn't do that

and I still haven't, really.

Except this:

VOTE: gypyx

ok i know yall gonna yell at me for this but i doubt that umlaut ain't gonna count the votes on him and i feel like this Very Bad Feeling in my stomach about this so i'd rather not E-1 bc umlaut will prob be claiming anyways

if he refuses to claim at E-2 hit me up

Why should I claim anything at E-2?

[Umlaut]

I'm having a somewhat childish stubborn "You can't make me vote Marquis" reaction just because I dislike the suggestion that I'm

supposed

to, even though I would be happy to vote them on the merits if not for that pressure.

I'll get over myself and

VOTE: Marquis

(L-1)

(Or at least I'll make the vote and internally grumble about it and try to get over myself later)

This is the post where I voted Marquis. If you think this is what a bus looks like then vote me, I guess. The idea that I as scum would "bus" by holding out so long and then being like "ugh, fine I

guess

I'll vote them," only to pass up the chance to be on that same wagon when it actually goes through to an elim, is absurd to me but I'm pretty sure there is no point in trying to defend myself over it.

VOTE: Gypyx

Until I see something to change my mind this vote is at least as good as it was yesterday.

[Umlaut]

Whatever. I'm a VT.

Based on draft order this means one of {DrDolittle, Something_Smart} has a role from the pair I requested. Should I out it?

[Umlaut]

UNVOTE: Gypyx

Actually I am going to out it, because I was kind of surprised it was taken but didn't really think about it until now.

I requested Universal Backup. This is paired with Role Cop, so one of {DrDolittle, Something_Smart} is a Universal Backup

or

a Rolecop.

I picked UB precisely because it seemed to be a less flashy or popular role, therefore less likely to be picked, yet very likely to be useful. But Rolecop is a popular

scum

role, and I notice there was no extra kill last night. This means that if one of those two is UB they inherited A50's vig ability but didn't shoot anyone last night (unless they shot Hoopla, but like what town player would ever shoot Hoopla?).

I'm not going to say that a 1-Shot Vig

should

necessarily take their shot the moment it's possible, but in my experience most vigs

will

do so particularly if they are town and a potential nightkill target. On reflection I think it's very likely one of these two is therefore a Role Cop, and probably scum.

[Umlaut]

VOTE: DrDolittle

S_S' vote record (or lack thereof) may be worse but Dolittle's positioning is worse; S_S at least was adamant about keeping the pressure on Marquislot in the face of a replacement and argued against the counterwagon on Gypyx. And something did sort of bother me yesterday about Dolittle that I couldn't put my finger on whereas S_S just seems like himself to me.

[Umlaut]

Looking forward to the explanation of why Rolecop is a high-EV town role in a setup where any alignment can be any role.

[Umlaut]

Looking forward to the explanation of why Rolecop is a high-EV town role in a setup where any alignment can be any role.

So you don’t think some roles are AI?

Obviously I do since the whole basis of my reasoning here is that a role such as Rolecop can be AI. But there are much more direct ways available to learn alignments if you have your pick of roles.

[Umlaut]

why do I have no opinion about what alignment this makes drdolittle

if it was ss I'd have a stronger opinion

Going to just throw out there that TW is either town or absolutely brilliant scum with this pair of posts.

[Umlaut]

Looking forward to the explanation of why Rolecop is a high-EV town role in a setup where any alignment can be any role.

So you don’t think some roles are AI?

Obviously I do since the whole basis of my reasoning here is that a role such as Rolecop can be AI. But there are much more direct ways available to learn alignments if you have your pick of roles.

Oh you’re saying just rolecop is NAI?

I'm not sure if you have something reversed here.

I think there are definitely roles that one alignment is more likely to pick than the other.
I also think if you want a role for figuring out alignments, you just take Cop instead of taking Rolecop and then trying to suss out alignment from roles.
I also think Rolecop itself is a better scum role than it is a town role.

[Umlaut]

However, what I thought my "contradiction" was was that Umlaut claimed that Vig should shoot asap, but earlier on last day, he also said that he thing vig should holster until a bit later, which I agreed on.

I know I didn't ever say that vig should holster until later, because I don't agree with it in general (and certainly not in A50's case where he was likely to be eliminated anyway). And looking at my own ISO I can't even see a post you could mistake for this.

[Umlaut]

However, what I thought my "contradiction" was was that Umlaut claimed that Vig should shoot asap, but earlier on last day, he also said that he thing vig should holster until a bit later, which I agreed on.

I know I didn't ever say that vig should holster until later, because I don't agree with it in general (and certainly not in A50's case where he was likely to be eliminated anyway). And looking at my own ISO I can't even see a post you could mistake for this.

oh, you already responded to this in 1314

[Umlaut]

The thing that is still bothering me is that Umlaut didn't think at all about the strong town-utility of Role Cop, which doesn't really mesh with that town!him decides to choose the backup-rolecop pair.

I still need to process this, but my kneejerk reaction is that he's upset that scum!laut's desired scum role got taken right under his nose as third pick? And that now he's slinging shade on me to say DDL chose RC -- that's the role I scum!laut wanted to pick so I'll recycle my reasons on why I think this role is good for scum to incriminate him.

Oooooor I just picked Universal Backup, not "the Backup-Rolecop pair." There's no reason for me to carefully consider the value of Role Cop specifically just because it is

paired with

the role I ultimately decide to send in.

[Umlaut]

Hmm. I was just about to unvote Dolittle because, among other reasons, "scum!Dolittle would just claim UB," but would scum!Dolittle actually be able to claim UB and get away with it?

• Sure, because there is no rolecop to contradict that.
  
• Except no, because then he has to explain why he never uses his inherited vig shot.
  
• Except yes, because "oh gosh I guess I got roleblocked" is a hard excuse to contradict.
  
• Except still maybe no, because with two scum roles spoken for the odds are pretty good that scum
  don't
  have a roleblocker and may even know that
  some town player knows
  scum doesn't have a roleblocker.

If this final scenario is true then Dolittle would pretty much have to truthfully claim Rolecop here, even if he's scum. Losing a second scum due to being caught out by mechanics would be completely disastrous from a scum POV.

[Umlaut]

Kind of want to wagon Word, actually. Feels like he's lining up ly--uh, 'liminations (dependent on Dolittle being town) and I don't like his pivot from me to Dolittle as soon as I was no longer a convenient target.

[Umlaut]

It's not much of a wagon if only I do it though.

(And anyway I still have mixed feelings about Dolittle.)

[Umlaut]

Eh, I guess all I really have on him is "rolecop = scum" which I don't think even I am all that confident in after seeing his response to that idea.

VOTE: word

[Umlaut]

i thought you were a badass umlaut. don't let me down.

I honestly have no idea why you would have ever thought that. Does this look like the avatar of a badass?

[Umlaut]

Did I miscount the votes or are we just planning to do the same reaction test over and over?

@Umlaut

can you explain to me how you scumread a player that selected *the same bracket you did*?
you also said that rolecop is a big + scumrole, so why can't DDL be town who denies scum that role, while still having use in it?

not saying it necesarilly points towards town!DDL, but it should be more NAI then scum indicative I think

I mean you're a bit late, I'm kind of over that read now. But my reasoning was town picking a role in that pair is more likely to be picking UB, which does just as well in denying scum a rolecop if that's what you want to do.

[Umlaut]

See,

now

the bribe offers come

[Umlaut]

Intent: Gypyx

Call me old-fashioned but I would actually like to get a claim here before we end the day. And I'm rather surprised Dolittle doesn't, considering his own role and how he intends to use it.

[Umlaut]

Oh wait, I thought of a thing.

Dolittle, disregard my comment for now I guess. (Unless you're scum, then feel free to incriminate yourself talking about it at length)

[Umlaut]

yes i am scum umlaut, please look at me scummy scum scum

Oh good, can you tell me who your buddy is real quick?

[Umlaut]

[Umlaut]

What role did you request? This may be important in the long run for sorting out other claims.

[Umlaut]

I disagree, but the only thing I can really threaten is to hammer you and I'm probably going to do that anyway.

[Umlaut]

Hunh, I missed that post and hadn't thought of that (which is kind of funny because the other time I played this setup town almost lost to a Mafia Vengeful in lylo, but managed to correctly identify them).

Here we're nowhere close to lylo and I'm not afraid of taking out a Vengeful if that's what he is.

[Umlaut]

Going to wait a bit before voting in case anyone has something brilliant they want to say first. Maybe someone can talk Gypyx into disclosing their draft pick after all, though "I can't tell you and I can't tell you why I can't tell you" is kind of a hard position to engage.

[Umlaut]

Looks like Gypyx split. I guess there's not much incentive for him to explain those reads if he's caught scum.

[Umlaut]

I was sort of hoping if I left it hanging long enough someone on the wagon would flinch and we could possibly get more reads out of it, but that hasn't happened yet and I'm too impatient to keep waiting for it.

VOTE: Gypyx

[Umlaut]

Official Vote Count 1.13

Almost50

(8) - Grumpy Cat,

Hoopla

, word321, iamausername, Green Crayons, the worst, DrDolittle, Iconeum

(Eliminated)

Gypyx (2) - Datisi, Umlaut
Umlaut (1) -

Almost50

DrDolittle (1) - Clover Ebi
Something_Smart (1) -

Gypyx

Not Voting(1) - Something_Smart

Official Vote Count 2.4

Gypyx

(7) - Datisi, Green Crayons, iamausername, Iconeum, the worst, DrDolittle, Umlaut

(Eliminated)

DrDolittle(2) - Clover Ebi, word321
Umlaut (1) - Grumpy Cat

Not Voting(2) - Something_Smart,

Gypyx

With 12 alive, elimination requires 7 votes

1. Players on
   both
   scum wagons: iamausername, Green Crayons, the worst, DrDolittle, Iconeum.
   
2. Players on
   one
   scum wagon: Grumpy Cat,
   word321
   petapan, Datisi, Umlaut.
   
3. Players on
   neither
   scum wagon: Clover Ebi, Something_Smart.

If scum bused two days in a row, color me impressed. I'm willing to assume everyone in Group 1 is town barring some very strong evidence to the contrary.

Also, based on draft numbers Datisi and Grumpy Cat are presumed town.

This leaves {petapan, Umlaut, Clover Ebi, Something_Smart}, and we have enough eliminations to cover all of these!

I think out of that group I make the

least

sense to eliminate first (I'd argue being off Marquis but on Gypyx is more clearing than the other way around), but I don't even care if you disagree, as long as you agree that the general plan in lieu of new evidence is to just wipe out that whole group.

[Umlaut]

In fact, if we're claiming today, I want to hear from that group first.

I already claimed VT and so did petapan. Let's hear from the other two.

[Umlaut]

Doctor OR Roleblocker

Assuming this is what Datisi is talking about.

[Umlaut]

Who still hasn't claimed? Icon obviously, who else?

[Umlaut]

Peta doesn't feel like scum right now but that's probably not going to stop me from voting him.

[Umlaut]

I picked UB precisely because it seemed to be a less flashy or popular role, therefore less likely to be picked

Quoted for irony

[Umlaut]

Confirming Grumpy Cat is neighborizer. He also told me in private that he had been blocked by S_S before S_S named his target.

Incidentally, we can confirm S_S as town (or, if he is scum, force him to no-kill for the rest of the game) by instructing him to roleblock Grumpy Cat until there is a nightkill, since Grumpy will know whether their action succeeds or not.

[Umlaut]

Yeah, we may or may not actually want to do it but it seemed worth pointing out the possibility for consideration.

[Umlaut]

Also:

I'm.the neighbouriser. Targeted Gypyx N1 and it didn't go through, so can confirm S_S's block.

Dude, Grumpy, we were supposed to claim masons, you screwed up the gambit

[Umlaut]

Hunh.

• Peta and Clover are mechanically cleared
  
• Datisi and Grumpy are almost mechanically cleared
  
• I'm town

If S_S is town too then I guess the last scum did bus both their buddies after all.

[Umlaut]

Full role list (flips + claims)

DrDolittle [8] - Rolecop
Something_Smart [9] - Roleblocker
Umlaut [21] - vanilla (req. Universal Backup)

Almost50

[1] - 1-Shot Vigilante
Datisi [1] - Cop

Clover Ebi

[3] - vanilla
the worst [3] - vanilla (req. Universal Backup)

Hoopla

[5] - vanilla
Iconeum [5] - vanilla (req. Universal Backup)
Grumpy Cat [11] - Neighborizer

Gypyx

[11] - vanilla

petapan

[4] - vanilla
iamausername [4] - 1-Shot Watcher
Green Crayons [4] - vanilla

So far this all hangs together. As Datisi pointed out, if any of our VTs requested any of {Night 3 Vigilante, Vengeful, Jailkeeper, Tracker}, you should say so now because it means someone above you is lying.

[Umlaut]

I'm brain dead today, can someone go over exactly what conditions would allow The Plan to fail?

I assume it's like "one of these people we all agree are likely-but-not-confirmed town is actually scum" but which people precisely?

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Iconeum

If it really is auto then let's just git 'er done.

[Umlaut]

UNVOTE: Gypyx

Actually I am going to out it, because I was kind of surprised it was taken but didn't really think about it until now.

I requested Universal Backup. This is paired with Role Cop, so one of {DrDolittle, Something_Smart} is a Universal Backup

or

a Rolecop.

I picked UB precisely because it seemed to be a less flashy or popular role, therefore less likely to be picked, yet very likely to be useful. But Rolecop is a popular

scum

role, and I notice there was no extra kill last night. This means that if one of those two is UB they inherited A50's vig ability but didn't shoot anyone last night (unless they shot Hoopla, but like what town player would ever shoot Hoopla?).

I'm not going to say that a 1-Shot Vig

should

necessarily take their shot the moment it's possible, but in my experience most vigs

will

do so particularly if they are town and a potential nightkill target. On reflection I think it's very likely one of these two is therefore a Role Cop, and probably scum.

VOTE: DrDolittle

S_S' vote record (or lack thereof) may be worse but Dolittle's positioning is worse; S_S at least was adamant about keeping the pressure on Marquislot in the face of a replacement and argued against the counterwagon on Gypyx. And something did sort of bother me yesterday about Dolittle that I couldn't put my finger on whereas S_S just seems like himself to me.

I'm starting to suspect I may actually be good at this game sometimes