Open 798 | PYPX/Y+I/M | Game Over!

[Something_Smart]

This iiiiiiis the story of a girl

This is the story of a girl

This is the story of a girl

This is the story of a girl

[Something_Smart]

you mean she normally makes that observation or that scum!her would deliberately double up?

Both, ostensibly.

[Something_Smart]

Hoopla's analysis was really valuable last time.

But that alone, combined with the number of players here who were in that game, makes it less valuable.

[Something_Smart]

and if i were scum ... there's a p decent chance i just talk everyone into agreeing to multitasking, depending on who exactly comprises the scumteam

I do agree that for reasons I have a hard time explaining you seem like the type to prefer multitasking.

No wait, I can explain them. Multitasking is most valuable to scum once one scum remains, and you're good at going deep as solo scum

[Something_Smart]

I guess from that it would follow that the scumteam is confident they won't get reduced to one member? Because as the last game showed, that can be brutal without multitasking.

Or they just wanted to play with the shiny new toy.

[Something_Smart]

Or they werent in the last game?

I mean, you don't need to have been there to know that multitasking is most useful when there's only one scum alive.

Of course you're right that we can't draw any confident conclusions from this. But that's just how I probably would have thought as scum (multitasking if I want a solo carry, informed if I want a group victory).

[Something_Smart]

Also hi Infinity!! It's been a while.

[Something_Smart]

Note, I'm saying this without having referred back to the numbers, so I could be talking out my ass if she's a singleton.

Funny you should say this

[Something_Smart]

Hoopla, do, uh, do you have any stats about how often numbers have been repeated four or more times?

[Something_Smart]

the wifom boost scum gets isnt worth deliberately throwing away the chance to get prs

I mean, it depends on how good of a boost it is.

Arguably, Hoopla's actually less likely to have done it here because everyone would immediately suspect her of having done it after how hard she railed against doubling up last game.

Depends if she saw this suspicion coming or not.

[Something_Smart]

We talk about who was placing undue emphasis on it. Or make a big wagon and see what comes of it.

Or we can just do nothing and then panic right before deadline. That one's my personal favorite.

[Something_Smart]

And even if it was, I like to think myself as smart enough as scum to avoid attention by dropping a vote on you when it could generate this sort of reaction

The fact that you're aware of it invalidates it, though.

[Something_Smart]

Something_Smart your vote in play on myself, Lilith or Penguin would be good here.

How so?

[Something_Smart]

your vote in play is more useful than no vote i believe

Is there a particular thing you're looking for, or is it just a general "wagons are good" sentiment?

[Something_Smart]

s_s do you have reads?

PP feels a lil bit towny?

other than that no

[Something_Smart]

busywork question

how is that a busywork question

[Something_Smart]

Still, I'd think you'd have reads then if you're ready to be asking other people for their reads

...why?

[Something_Smart]

I also feel like peta is being a bit more antagonistic than scum usually are this early.

From my limited experience of peta I doubt that level of antagonism would be out of scum-peta's range.

[Something_Smart]

tries to create the appearance of solving but felt pointless and arbitrary

It's not pointless? The point is to learn if I have any reads.

And it's not arbitrary, because he noted that I'd participated but hadn't shared any reads yet.

[Something_Smart]

eh it's a level 1 scumbo move to go "hey x do you have any reads"

sure but it's also a level 1 town move?

like it's a pretty normal thing from both alignments.

[Something_Smart]

Sorry, missed that.

Yes, extremely.

[Something_Smart]

I would rather have no reads than have reads based on bad reasons.

[Something_Smart]

You'd think that would be an uncontroversial take.

And yet.

[Something_Smart]

Why is that weird thought more likely to come from scum than town?

[Something_Smart]

Actually, probably more noteworthy is skitter's response to that read. She just took it in stride and told JV it was NAI instead of pointing out that she didn't have any long posts.

[Something_Smart]

looks to me like he threw out a surface-level offhand 'read' on skitter, then when someone pressed him on it, he just made up some BS and doubled down on it when pressed again.

This is in theory possible, but not what I was asking. It's possible that they made it up out of thin air; it's also possible that they misremembered skitter's posts as being longer than they were. If they did misremember, that's obviously not alignment indicative, so what makes you think it was a fabrication rather than an error?

[Something_Smart]

I don't know. It seems more unskitterly than anything else.

My instinct is to say that it's more likely scum looking to grab towncred by pointing out why she shouldn't be townread, but I don't know if skitter thinks like that.

[Something_Smart]

this is an aside, but you're one of those

"don't vote until absolutely sure"

type characters, no?

...ish. I'm quite reserved with my vote, especially on day 1, but it has less to do with surety and more that I see early votes as causing more problems than they solve. Also I'm afraid of making decisions.

[Something_Smart]

We literally just played together, was I not like that in that game?

[Something_Smart]

But post length/how many posts/efforting is nai for me, and i'm reasonably confident you (or someone else who knows me) would have complained if i *didnt* point that out

I mean, even if your posts had been long, I wouldn't have complained, I would have just probably pointed it out myself.

It just is hard for me to wrap my head around why you automatically hit the "don't townread me for that" button instead of actually looking into why they were townreading you for it. But I guess it makes more sense if you get townreads like that so much that your response basically is autopilot.

I don't really recall you getting townread like that a lot in our recent games, though?

[Something_Smart]

I dont think jv's comment is as bad as its being made out to be

What do you mean by bad

Like it's obviously wrong, for multiple reasons. Them doubling down on it is probably slightly > rand scum (since admitting fault is towny), but not significantly so.

[Something_Smart]

is defending yourself against dunnstral so important that you need to blow up your attempt to test lilith before she responds

I'm going to venture a guess that lilith would have been able to figure out her wagon was for pressure on her own.

[Something_Smart]

It's scummy because the alternative was towny. If someone can do X or Y, and they're comparatively more likely to do X as town, and they do Y, that makes them more likely to be scum. Though the effect is pretty marginal if the probability of X is low, which it is. But I do see where people are coming from.

[Something_Smart]

Lol

[Something_Smart]

Huh?

[Something_Smart]

go ahead, deathtunnel me. it'll do nothing but convince me even more that you're scum

there's no logic here from penguin, just a blatant attempt to fill up the thread with "tgp bad."

why would that be scummy?

[Something_Smart]

sorry, let me rephrase this with some more clarity. basically, i think JV's wagon began with town (lillith and petapan) and i think hoopla is scum that jumped on it. because hoopla put a vote down there, it makes me townlean on JV.

Why was Hoopla's vote jump scummy?

[Something_Smart]

TGP:

sorry, let me rephrase this with some more clarity. basically, i think JV's wagon began with town (lillith and petapan) and i think hoopla is scum that jumped on it. because hoopla put a vote down there, it makes me townlean on JV.

Why was Hoopla's vote jump scummy?

[Something_Smart]

I don't have any townpings from SS from so far, which... based on my read meter for him, means he's probably scum.

I mean, I've barely done anything.

[Something_Smart]

Dammit lilith you are scum aren't you

[Something_Smart]

okay this is getting pretty old

Yeah, I know. I'm sorry. I was trying to find a way to walk that back without sounding like an asshole.

I just really hate both of those posts.

Like, regardless of how quickly you've been able to read me in the past, I really don't think there's been much alignment indicative content from me so far. As for the tinfoil theory, I don't even know why you brought that up.

[Something_Smart]

Yeah, this is opportunistic wagon hopping.

Is it opportunistic if JV is scum?

[Something_Smart]

Not particularly, though that's not relevant to the question.

[Something_Smart]

what's the point of the question then?

The point of the question is that the argument reads as circular to me-- Hoopla is scum because she jumped on town JV, JV is town because scum Hoopla jumped on them.

I don't think it really makes sense for a scum jump onto scum to be opportunistic, because isn't the point of opportunism to try to find an excuse to push townies?

[Something_Smart]

naked voting is fine, but look at the context those naked votes are being placed in.

For pressure?

[Something_Smart]

i mean, yes? it's opportunistic either way because it takes advantage of wagons forming and jumps on them with little to no attempted solving or town motivated reasoning.

How do you know what Hoopla's reasoning is?

[Something_Smart]

S_S feels like the voice of reason in this game which to me feels townie but the lack of substantial reads is concerning

What's concerning about it?

Have you developed any outside of saying PP felt towny a while ago?

I... don't know. I want to believe that lilith wouldn't approach me this way as scum, but she's literally played me by doing this exact thing before.

I think TGP is > rand town, because his argument is weird but it seems pretty plausible that he would believe it.

[Something_Smart]

I mean, it's not exactly hard to generate reads as scum. Natural reads, maybe, but like it's also hard to generate natural reads as town.

[Something_Smart]

As for Lilith, how do you think she'd approach this situation if she were scum?

Honestly I have no clue.

[Something_Smart]

That was just a convoluted way of saying that forming good reads is hard.

[Something_Smart]

Uh, what? Natural is not a convoluted way of saying good.

Yes, but that's not the point.

The point is faking reads as scum isn't hard, because they don't have to be super nuanced and complex-- because usually town's reads are not all that nuanced or complex.

[Something_Smart]

i also just realised jackson virgo is in the group of 4's. this is shocking play on my part. there's no way i'm executing from that bracket on D1.

i apologise to jackson virgo for my overeagerness.

You think that bracket is likely to be all town?

[Something_Smart]

sorry to be self-indulgent but do you have any thoughts on Post 552

It seems mostly accurate and I would like to hear a response from dave if he hasn't given one yet.

[Something_Smart]

Except town!her usually brings a lot more content, is more focused, doesn't ask inane questions which basically dont go anywhere (but this is something she does as scum!), and is capable of quickly becoming an obvtown force to be reckoned with

Maybe?

I don't feel like she exhibited these characteristics that much in the last game I played with her. She did become obvtown but like on D4 after I died, and I died still being paranoid of her.

[Something_Smart]

Is there a world where all the PRs are active btw?

I took some stats on this setup a little while back. (I can link them if anyone's curious.) They don't directly answer this but I think from collecting them I recall this happening only a few times out of 15. Usually at least one is missed.

[Something_Smart]

you seem to be commenting on a lot of trivial things

I mean, they're just commenting on a lot of things, full stop.

[Something_Smart]

if i'm right on hoopla, penguin is almost guaranteed scum.

Wouldn't it make more sense to vote PP first then?

[Something_Smart]

Their answer is in the same post

i also believe that Hoopla flipping red absolutely condemns Penguin whereas the opposite is not necessarily the case, and so this is a better elimination for today.

That's not an answer. It's just two unrelated statements, the second of which does not follow from the first.

If it is true that you are definitely scum if Hoopla is (something which I don't follow at all, but I'm discussing the logic here and not the premises), then you have a strictly higher chance of being scum than Hoopla does, and you flipping town also clears Hoopla, so it seems far better to execute you in that case.

[Something_Smart]

Oh, this?

I don't normally comment on stuff I agree with or butt into other people's conversations.

It doesn't really feel satisfactory to me. It's certainly possible to respond to someone without butting into their conversation.

[Something_Smart]

I don't see why we wouldn't be able to.

[Something_Smart]

There were a bunch of posts where I was like “ok, I don’t agree that this post makes someone more towny/scummy, but I see how someone could think that”.

I mean how much does that really count for? If you can see town-DGB thinking something, surely scum-DGB can see town-DGB thinking it?

[Something_Smart]

In fact I think "these thoughts sound like things a townie could reasonably believe" is pretty much what scum shoot for in making fake reads.

[Something_Smart]

but if she's a scum pr that would be a good thing wouldn't it

I mean yes but not that good of a thing.

It's much worse for town to lose a PR than it is for scum to lose a PR.

[Something_Smart]

Lilith is making some pretty gross posts, yes.

I'm not sure that gross posting is alignment indicative for her.

[Something_Smart]

I would imagine I'll be able to read her better later in the game.

Which is good, because she's at the top of the draft and therefore not in consideration for execution for at least a few days.

[Something_Smart]

Just gonna reiterate that i really, really dont care that she's the top of the draft

Why not?

[Something_Smart]

She literally looks like jk+++

I can't really speak to that game because I wasn't trying to read her there. But she also doesn't look that far off from Mini 2160.

[Something_Smart]

She's scum

[Something_Smart]

In that game I didn't get any strong feelings from her posts for a while because they were mostly just there and they seemed like stuff that she would reasonably believe as town or reasonably expect to be believable as scum. She also kept insisting that I ought to be townreading her in a way that felt very wooden and forced, which reminds me a ton of how she's saying she thinks I'm scum here with really no actual reasons.

When I finally did get a strong feeling from her, it was from this post, and it made me scumread her because it was just like really bad, and it's not like bad means scum, but I just struggled to understand how it came from a town perspective. And some of her posts here are the same way, where it's hard to imagine the town perspective that could be behind them, but that doesn't mean such a perspective doesn't exist.

[Something_Smart]

@ss so scum!lilith just exudes this 'ugh i totally hate playing scum and dont even want to post' thing

I mean, I've played with scum-her three times and never seen that be obvious. Though I knew her alignment in two of those so it is pretty hard to look at it objectively. Was it obvious she didn't want to post in JK9++?

[Something_Smart]

Except town!her usually brings a lot more content, is more focused, doesn't ask inane questions which basically dont go anywhere (but this is something she does as scum!), and is capable of quickly becoming an obvtown force to be reckoned with

Why did you not mention here that town-her acts like she actually wants to post?

[Something_Smart]

light town read until the deja vu posts.

JK9++ was the only game you've played with me and lilith, correct?

[Something_Smart]

skitter can you link some posts this game that give you the impression that lilith doesn't want to post and explain why you think that?

[Something_Smart]

Why would that be cause for a scumread?

[Something_Smart]

I mean, I'm pushing back, but not because I'm suspicious of your motivations. I don't think you're scum unless lilith is.

[Something_Smart]

I think it's plausible for you to say "I'm scum with lilith and everyone knows how well I can read her, so I better bus her and hope people talk me out of it because she's top in the draft."

At the very least, I think that's a lot more likely than scum-you deciding to deathtunnel town-lilith when it means you probably die afterward.

[Something_Smart]

does this imply he knows lilith is town?

No? Scum know lilith is a powerful PR regardless of her alignment.

[Something_Smart]

I... think I have covid

Sorry to hear this, hope everything's all right.

[Something_Smart]

I wish there were more players with that attitude instead of asking for those infuriating "intents to hammer."

Is getting a claim not what intent to hammer is designed to accomplish?

[Something_Smart]

You catch so many scum running them up and then they scramble to fakeclaim. Asking for "intent to hammer" just buys time for scum.

Oh, I see, the idea is that people have to decide when to claim on their own because if they wait too long they'll get hammered?

That really only works if people are okay with hammering without a claim, though, which isn't the case, otherwise people will feel no fear of actually getting hammered before they can claim.

Regardless, it's irrelevant. If enough people want a claim, they can force one, and if not enough people want a claim, then they can't.

[Something_Smart]

I never miss an opportunity to vote for scum.

Do you miss opportunities to explain your votes?

[Something_Smart]

Delayed from what? From the point at which they're asked to claim?

[Something_Smart]

I read the whole game and she's the scummiest player?

Yes obviously. What's your reasoning for saying that?

[Something_Smart]

No scumhunting, she's just diddling around, making excuses.

Why, you think she's town? Convince me.

Not per se, but "not scumhunting" isn't a scummy behavior in and of itself. It's not as though scum-lilith forgot that she was supposed to look like she was scumhunting.

Also, what's your read on me?

[Something_Smart]

I say that as someone who frequently does not scumhunt as town.

[Something_Smart]

Even though you know it's not scum indicative because I just told you?

What's your read on me atm?

[Something_Smart]

As I was going back through these, this is exactly what I was thinking.

Idk if this is just a feature of your playstyle S_S but the fact you aren't taking stances on these slots which are behaving in a way which I would say is pretty polarizing is weird to say the least

...I don't think that's what skitter was getting at there. I thought she was saying that I might have been scum intentionally drawing a faulty comparison to protect lilith. (Which isn't something I would do; I wouldn't lie about something that easily verifiable.)

Just because slots are polarizing doesn't mean I have to be polarized, if you get my drift? And I think slowness to form reads is a virtue because it keeps me from jumping to conclusions and becoming confbiased; but regardless, it's a playstyle trait, not an alignment-indicative one.

[Something_Smart]

There seems to be a lot of "this could reasonably come from a town perspective" which is something we were frowning upon when Infinity was doing it earlier.

Can you link where this happened with Infinity? (Not that I doubt it did, I just want to make sure we're talking about the same event.)

[Something_Smart]

Draft order alone isn't enough of a towncase for a player to make me not want to lynch them.

This misses the point. It's not that high draft order makes someone townier-- ask Hoopla and she'll show you stats that illustrate the opposite-- it's that they are comparatively more valuable to town, and therefore riskier to execute. In some cases, they will be actively valuable to town even if scum, for instance if they are a vig we can leash or an investigative that produces accurate results.

[Something_Smart]

I believe this is what I was referencing

I think you might have misunderstood 745? I wasn't calling out Infinity, I was just saying I disagreed with his read.

[Something_Smart]

Though, there is a difference between what he did and what I did-- he tried to say that DGB was towny because he could imagine her posts as coming from town, whereas I was just saying that lilith isn't scummy because I can imagine her posts as coming from town.

[Something_Smart]

well yeah but you making similar points when you disagreed with someone else for it is contradictory, no?

No because of what I said in 972

Using it as the basis for a townread is materially different from using it as the basis to push back against someone else's scumread.

[Something_Smart]

They're too similar to treat them as entirely different things

They're totally different! Suppose you saw a frog and said "That frog is green. Female frogs are green. Therefore, that frog is female."

There's a big difference between me saying "Well, male frogs are green too, so that frog is actually male" (what Infinity did) and me saying "Well, male frogs are green too, so we don't know whether it's male or female" (what I did).

[Something_Smart]

Yes there's a difference between town and "not scummy" but in this situation you're both making a read

I'm not making a read. I'm doing the exact opposite of that.

[Something_Smart]

Re: 985: that is all true. And it's a problem I'm still working on. Of course what needs to be considered is what is probable, not what is possible (if you've ever seen mastina talk about her scum methods, she does a great job of explaining this).

That said, I'm not compelled to make a judgement on what's probable right away, and I usually prefer not to. I've found it's generally very hard to identify what's significantly more likely than random to come from scum, at least early on. As a result I focus much more heavily on townhunting than scumhunting on D1.

[Something_Smart]

"Not making a read" on a post is essentially making a read. You're "reading" it as neutral.

Sounds like a difference of terminology to me, but this also doesn't make much sense. Does that mean I'm constantly making neutral reads on everyone who I'm not currently talking about?

[Something_Smart]

May I ask what your townleans are then at least?

Skitter, PP, Infinity, TGP. Maybe one more I'm forgetting.

[Something_Smart]

Menalque replaces Pine

o/

[Something_Smart]

S_S why are you still not voting?

Because we still have plenty of time and it doesn't seem like discussion is remotely done.

[Something_Smart]

Once, a long long time ago, when you were still a glimmer in your father's eye, I had mercy on a player who brought up a detailed personal sob story. This player is still on the site. The story was completely false, and the player was scum. She argue that as scum, you use anything you can to your advantage.

And since then, the site meta has shifted to where that is no longer acceptable and this person would probably get quite a negative reception for doing this today.

[Something_Smart]

Who would you vote for?

I'm ambivalent between DGB and Hoopla.

Also, wanna take a stab at my super secret scumread?

Nope!

[Something_Smart]

I don't see why I should be able to predict the reads of someone who just entered the game with better than random accuracy (assuming as you have already stated that they are not just consensus).

[Something_Smart]

Why hoopla?

Because she's got a wagon?

[Something_Smart]

But that’s not really what I’m asking, what I’m really asking is “who do you think could be a slot I think is so scummy as to term it “obvscum” but that hasn’t seen pressure yet?”

Anyone.

[Something_Smart]

Let’s try this again: do you think DGB/hoopla are scummy?

No.

[Something_Smart]

Undoubtedly. But I'm not mafia

[Something_Smart]

Can you give us the sparknotes on Infinity?

[Something_Smart]

as a fairly major corollary: I think there is quite likely a scum in (lil, DGB) and I know I've already mentioned this but want to reiterate -- if there isn't AND if infinity flips scum, I think skitter's scum equity goes through the roof

I'm really having a hard time seeing why scum-skitter would go into turbo murder mode on town-lilith if she is known for being able to read lilith super accurately. As I mentioned earlier I think skitter's scum equity is a lot higher if lilith is scum, though still fairly low.

[Something_Smart]

I'm really having a hard time seeing why scum-skitter would go into turbo murder mode on town-lilith if she is known for being able to read lilith super accurately. As I mentioned earlier I think skitter's scum equity is a lot higher if lilith is scum, though still fairly low.

And it's not like skitter would have known that lilith would have a very good RL reason to be lurky.

[Something_Smart]

I guess it's like a BoP-esque thing really, but you're right that maybe she wouldn't so openly link herself to infinity if they were scum together

I mean, even ignoring Infinity completely, the BoP argument is that if she pushes that hard on lilith-- who, by the way, is also guaranteed to be a good PR-- and then lilith flips town, she suddenly looks really bad.

[Something_Smart]

it's mostly the incongruence of skitter defending a slot I think is VERY scummy whenever anyone has raised that when I would expect her to be calling the things out that I'm seeing and not defusing pressure there

Clearly there are at least 9 town players who didn't see Infinity as scummy. Do you have reason to believe that skitter specifically would have been likely to scumread the things you pointed out?

[Something_Smart]

C’mon we both know that’s not true

It may or may not be true, but it actually doesn't matter whether it is or not. What matters is whether skitter would EXPECT it to be true. And this lobby has a lot of old-school players who don't necessarily know skitter all that well and may not be willing to give her the benefit of the doubt, and even the people who do know her better may be willing to sheep that wagon just out of annoyance.

Point being, that's an awful big risk for someone as good at scum as skitter is, considering she's influential enough that she could probably get a lilith execution through without pushing it as hard as she was.

[Something_Smart]

(good news, rapid test came back negative; bad news, I still have *some* unknown viral infection and have basically been too tired to move. It’s been a fuuuun week)

This is good to hear at least! Hope you feel better soon.

[Something_Smart]

Who do you think would be a high priority NK then skitt?

Why are we talking about this

[Something_Smart]

usually when someone is getting by without pressure, despite being a bit all over the shop, it's because they're scum.

Is this just because scum won't pressure their buddy if said buddy is not otherwise receiving pressure?

Because that's only 2/13 of the picture in this case.

[Something_Smart]

I feel like that's pretty par for the course for dave.

[Something_Smart]

There's evidence there to say that it makes someone somewhat more likely scum than random, but saying they're "usually" scum because there were only 11 slots that could call them out instead of 13 seems too strong.

It seems like a relatively minor factor to me.

[Something_Smart]

I'm feeling kinda conflicted atm but like the ate self-vote probably doesnt come from scum?

I feel like I've seen DGB do this before and I've only played a few games with her. So I would assume that this kind of AtE is something she's well-versed in and can fake. Someone who knows her better weighing in would be nice, though.

[Something_Smart]

I gave the draft stuff ZERO thought.

Why did you join this game then

[Something_Smart]

If you're going with the logic that scum would choose 1-shot vigi. That would mean lilith, Dunnstral, skitter, dave, S_S, Uncrowned, Infnity, peta are all Town.

Needless to say, it is not good logic.

[Something_Smart]

Echoing all the above sentiments, hope everything's all right.

Dave's EOD yesterday looks fairly towny.

[Something_Smart]

1377 seems like a very weird thing for scum to post in twilight; it's bitter and affords some possibility of DGB flipping town, but also claims that possibility is unlikely. That's kind of the position I would expect town-dave to take ("man, I hope DGB wasn't town after this, but it's possible..."), and it's nuanced enough that it seems less likely to be fake.

[Something_Smart]

It's not really overexplainy though, because it's not like he was underscoring how much he would be mad at DGB or whatever. Instead he's analyzing the situation.

Idk, that's just my thought.

[Something_Smart]

Do you have any thoughts on the wagon?

Honestly not really?

It was a fine wagon, and then DGB made a bad claim and started acting erratically. Acting erratically is towny in a vacuum but often townies don't want people to be rewarded for doing stuff like that, and obviously scum want to make sure their mis-execution doesn't slip away. So there's probably approximately equal incentive for town and scum to be on the wagon.

[Something_Smart]

@SS

are you planning on voting today?

Maybe?

It obviously depends on how the day goes.

[Something_Smart]

Ummmmm why does self-vote imply there's not two on?

That is definitely not what he said

[Something_Smart]

Manlque was fairly obviously blocked, stopping the kill don't out town pr, elim through claim:

VOTE: Menalque

How did you get this...?

[Something_Smart]

don't like how your scumreads are all people likely to be prs sorry that's gross

Why's it gross? Do you think scum are more likely to have scumreads that they might just be unable to execute?

[Something_Smart]

I kinda want clarity from dunn too, but i imagine he's unlikely to provide it

I mean so far all he's done is make the clearly wrong statement that it's "obvious" Menalque was blocked. We don't necessarily need a full explanation, but we do need something other than a blatant falsehood.

[Something_Smart]

i think if mena is scum the rest of the scumteam was worried about the tracker being in play and wanted to try to avoid it

This would be consistent with the scumteam having gone for that slot and failed to get it. JK is a pretty popular choice for scum.

[Something_Smart]

it's probably 50/50 betweeen the JK or doc/RB.

In a vacuum, wouldn't it be 67% JK, 33% doc/RB? Or more precisely, 33% Menalque was targeted, 33% Menalque attempted to kill, 33% doc/RB stopped the kill.

[Something_Smart]

Or a scum really low who went for it as a hail mary.

[Something_Smart]

Yeah I see that, if Menalque flips scum that Dunn post is going to look like a ridiculous TMI.

[Something_Smart]

Very unlikely that a town player picks roleblocker over cop

Roleblocker is paired with doctor, not cop.

[Something_Smart]

I'm just saying that if I were scum, I would be successfully anti-spewing

So you would just give up?

[Something_Smart]

i don't like these kind of ultimatums.

the town would never agree to it, so this is all just bluster designed to emotionally manipulate.

Agree with the first half, disagree with the second. I don't like it because it's lazy, asking everyone else to do extra work so you might not have to work. In this case it's kind of a futile request because I feel like the choice is only between killing Menalque today and killing Menalque in a few days. (For the record, Menalque is a strong player as town and it's not outside the realm of possibility for him to have been attacked, but I do agree it's unlikely.)

I don't think it's designed to emotionally manipulate, in part because I saw him profess similar emotions as town in the game he linked, and in part because it seems like it would only manipulate people into being more annoyed with him.

[Something_Smart]

oh, we mean different things by "anti-spew"

I guess. I thought mine was the established definition: you're a lost cause, so shut up so you don't give anything else away.

What did you mean?

[Something_Smart]

[Dunn] is quite possibly scum, who knows that a kill on me failed

I think this is a good theory iff scum know what happened to the doctor/roleblocker (either they got it, or they were informed about it not being given).

[Something_Smart]

The soft was pretty obvious, what I'm wondering is how he knew it was a JK/rb. I thought it was cop tbh

On second thought, maybe we should stop this train of thought right about now

[Something_Smart]

My definition of an anti-spew is based on what I define what a spew is. Spew is what a scum does that outs their partner/s. Anti-spew is abusing that to try and out townies and make them seem that they're being spewed as their buddies.

Shouldn't scum always be doing that, though?

[Something_Smart]

S_S I'd appreciate your thoughts on my TGP read

Looking through your arguments the only thing that resonates with me is pointing out how incongruous 1369 is with the rest of TGP's trajectory.

It's a really awful post, and it reads like a bad excuse to jump on a mis-exe wagon. But I'm not convinced that scum-TGP would feel the need to jump on that wagon? DGB was self-destructing.

So I think it looks bad, but it feels mostly just bad and not scummy, unless TGP's scumgame is so incompetent that he wouldn't realize jumping on a mis-exe that you were previously defending looks bad (and I doubt it is).

[Something_Smart]

I mean, it doesn't have to be this way if y'all choose not for it to be

Well, obviously. My point was just that I think it's highly unlikely that enough people would come around to townreading you strongly enough to drop pressure on you entirely.

[Something_Smart]

ducky, can we get a prod on Best Bird pls?

Spoiler:

That would be rude, Taly's not even in the game

[Something_Smart]

JV in particular was like "oh is there a red check? I didn't see. where's the red check?"

Oh yeah this is a good point. If Menalque flips scum that post has a lot of partner equity.

[Something_Smart]

To be fair here I would never consider that either.

Why not?

I'm definitely considering it. Menalque is a strong player, and not many people expressed a scumread of him before today.

[Something_Smart]

can't tell if this is a joke post or not

It's not a joke, though I'm only talking about that one post (1544) and not JV overall.

[Something_Smart]

wasn't sure because I had that series of posts with lilith talking about how my interactions with JV are absolutely nothing like what they'd look like if we were scum together, but are exactly what they'd look like if I were scum trying to set up an innocent JV to go down after me

Yeah, I know. If you are scum I won't really be attempting to read into anything you did today, for exactly that reason.

[Something_Smart]

Maybe i'm like horrifically tunneled but i'm still having a hard time wrapping my head around town!lilith

I feel like the only thing I can offer here is that it's probably true that lilith's townrange is bigger than you think it is? Especially when she's a PR in an unusual setup and she was playing intentionally under the radar and she had RL issues.

I think the way she's played her role has been fairly towny, and besides, she's got a strong enough role that it doesn't make sense to kill her early anyway-- if she's scum and we manage to kill both of her partners, then she basically autoloses, and she can't really use her role in a scummy way (i.e. blocking town PR's) since she's claimed it.

[Something_Smart]

Because I expect kills to aim for PRs. <If you doubt this just remember that I'm totally a mechanics based player>

I'm a mechanics based player too, but that doesn't prevent me from acknowledging that not everyone thinks as mechanically as I do. Just because you wouldn't kill Menalque doesn't mean nobody would.

[Something_Smart]

S_S, what is your read on me at this point anyway?

On play probably slightly leaning town?

Factoring in mechanics probably slightly leaning scum because I do think that, if lilith did stop the kill, it's more likely that you tried to kill and were blocked than that you were the kill target, especially now that you claimed VT.

[Something_Smart]

Only slightly?

I don't think I've ever seen your scumgame, but I wouldn't expect it to be all that different from your towngame, especially considering a lot of your initial reads were pre-role-PM.

[Something_Smart]

Weren’t you in GnR the third?

Right, I blocked that game out lol.

Iirc I was only really able to catch you around D3 or so?

[Something_Smart]

Also I think I’ve played against you twice when I’ve been scum because I think I referenced GnR the third to throw you off me in the other one

Was it a DonCorleone game? For a while I didn't know that was you.

[Something_Smart]

I don't remember. What I know is that I don't have a mental model of how your scumgame differs from your towngame; in G&R III you were ~scummy~ but that game was so low-effort from everyone that it's not like the situation is really comparable to this game where stuff is actually happening.

[Something_Smart]

I mean, maybe you don't adjust your play like that, but I got the impression that you were lazier there because you correctly figured that it didn't matter. I know I've had scumgames like that; Timeshift IV comes to mind.

Pedit: I mean it's pretty nebulous but yes I have ways that I roughly expect you to act when you're town, as I would assume you have for me as well.

[Something_Smart]

Would u believe me if I told u that the only metric I sort u by now is if ur posts make me laugh or not?

No, because you said you had a townread on me for reasons you didn't want to share.

[Something_Smart]

There is a middle ground between "assuming a likely PR will be the NK" and "assuming a dangerous player will be the NK"...

[Something_Smart]

Oh, I thought gobble had replaced in.

oof

[Something_Smart]

Which ones?

[Something_Smart]

i like that he came around to scum!tgp before it was popular

How much does that count for if TGP isn't scum?

[Something_Smart]

the problem is like
you're so good of a scumplayer i don't trust my own reads over the strong mechanical evidence that you're scum

As a very mechanically-inclined player, I would say there's mild mechanical evidence that he's scum, not strong mechanical evidence.

[Something_Smart]

I'm dumb lol

I read it the same way you did ftr

[Something_Smart]

insisted forcefully enough that she would have taken multitasking that i believed it

meh, I think it's well within scum-skitter's wheelhouse to pick one thing and strongly argue why she would have picked the other, especially if she did the pick specifically for WIFOM.

[Something_Smart]

S_S do you have thoughts on anything at the moment or have you been busy or something?

I have been busy or something.

[Something_Smart]

I think it's less unlikely that I didn't actually block the kill than I originally thought

why's this, just because other people townread him?

[Something_Smart]

davesaz is sidelining all of this hard

what does this mean

[Something_Smart]

dunn is being scummy too ^

meh I think Dunn is mostly just being Dunn?

[Something_Smart]

I’m pretty sure there is at least one but not 3 scum in (lil, Dave, Best Bird, peta, infinity)

Where did you get this group from

[Something_Smart]

Is there a reason to believe that beyond simple statistics?

[Something_Smart]

Nope, it’s just part of how I work, I think most games there is *a* scum on the D1 wagon

I mean, yeah, but that means you could pick any random group of people and the claim would be just as strong.

[Something_Smart]

However you've been starting to fall into patterns i associate with scum!you

Is this more nuanced than "being useless"?

[Something_Smart]

Why's that?

[Something_Smart]

I was very mentally absent last week for a variety of reasons including the election and schoolwork.

[Something_Smart]

And I'm sorry that you're bothered by my lack of voting but how does that translate to my alignment?

[Something_Smart]

I mean, just because I did X and it made you scumread me and you were right, does not mean that you caught me for doing X.

In this case X is something I do frequently. Have you really never seen me change my level of engagement between days as town? I do that all the time.

[Something_Smart]

I think that despite you being reluctant to vote when you’re town (and therefore have actual reads) you’re more inclined to vote than when you’re scum and all your reads are fabricated

Why?

(You may be right; I'm not sure.)

[Something_Smart]

Bc if you’re town I think you’re more inclined to slap a vote down when you get to a fairly high level of confidence

I think this is somewhat of a misinterpretation of why I sit on my vote for so long.

Well, it's not. It is due to lack of confidence. It's just that most of the time when I choose to vote (at least early on), it's not because I have high confidence, but because I'm ready to end the day and the best course of action is clear.

Needless to say, I'm a lot pickier about what constitutes "the best course of action is clear" than most people.

[Something_Smart]

In this case it’s more the lack of solving I’m concerned about than just a drop off in engagement, and so while yes, that COULD just be bc of the rl factors you mentioned, it could also be that your ISO lacks solving bc you’re just scum

Well, there's an easy way out of this then. What do you want to talk about?

[Something_Smart]

I think skitter is scummy for not being dead

If there's a doctor, wouldn't that also explain this?

[Something_Smart]

I don’t think, if you were town, that I would need to find things to try and generate discussion about or to engage you on, I think you’d be doing that naturally and organically by yourself, exploring those avenues and pushing where you need to

I never said you did? But it's never a bad thing to have discussions on topics that multiple people are interested in.

[Something_Smart]

I think S_S... having basically no scumreads could be AI. Have I missed scumreads?

No you haven't, and no it isn't.

[Something_Smart]

Okay, like, what are your reads can be a place to start then? What do you make of lili? What do you think of dunn at EoD yesterday?

My townreads are in some order skitter, dave, Menalque, lilith, maybe Infinity, maybe Best Birb.

I've basically given up on reading lilith on play, at least in the early game when things don't really matter that much. But the mechanics suggest that she's town. For one, a no-kill is at least three times more likely if the JK is town, and that's not even factoring in the way that she used the role and how she chose to reveal it.

I feel like Dunn is mostly just being boring. I don't know if boring-Dunn is more likely to be town-Dunn or scum-Dunn, in my experience he's capable of playing both boring and interesting as both alignments. The hammer was pretty garbage but, I think, not inconsistent with how Dunn plays as town.

[Something_Smart]

I mean some people feel like it's easier to just answer weird questions than it is to argue about why you have to answer them.

I know I'm like that.

[Something_Smart]

Can you explain these please?

I initially got a townread on skitter for her push on lilith. I thought that she was only scum if lilith was also scum, because if skitter-scum/lilith-town then she can't know that lilith had a COVID scare and that's probably the only reason lilith wasn't pushed to near-execution, and that looks bad for skitter when lilith either flips town or inevitably claims an strong role and relieves the pressure. Since then I feel like skitter has pretty much played in line with her towngame, and while that's mostly in line with her scumgame as well, her pushes seem to be pretty dynamic and reactive rather than agenda-based.

Dave I touched on yesterday, it's mostly based on those D1 twilight posts where he expressed what looked to me as genuine confusion over whether DGB did her antics as town or scum. I think it takes a pretty gutsy scum to make a post like that and have it not come out sounding awkward, especially for dave who is fairly low-charisma and straightforward.

You... I don't know. You don't feel like guiltied scum waiting for the other shoe to drop; you're playing very casually and taking things slow. I would not expect that you would come out of day 2 thinking "this is it, I'm in the clear now and I don't have to worry about lilith having blocked me". Also, I think scum-you would be pretty apprehensive about calling me scum when nobody else is, whereas I can understand where you're coming from with that read having arisen organically.

Lilith I believe I already explained. It's mostly mechanical-- the fact that the no-kill happened, and the way she played around it and her claim. Even if I didn't think she was town I wouldn't want to kill her today anyway.

[Something_Smart]

Noted, yet also something that I think makes you infinitely more suspicious if dunn is town

I think skitter whiteknighting is probably less blatant than "I want it on the record that I opposed this execution"?

[Something_Smart]

like remember how in micc's micro i spent forever on tw despite everyone trying to talk me out of it and then i got burned because i listened to like nebulous mechanics arguments? that's literally how i feel rn

big big huge giant difference: this is an open setup.

The reasoning from Miccro was that BG made more sense in the setup than bomb did. (I stand by it.)

The reasoning here is purely based on the actions of the players within the game.

[Something_Smart]

i think it's as simple as she thought she could get the miselim on you

that seems uh optimistic on her part

[Something_Smart]

I could be slightly wrong here bc I didn’t follow that closely after I got banned but I don’t think it was his *actions* that falsely mechcleared him as it was bad setup spec, maybe S_S can help out on this tho, or lili herself?

You are correct.

[Something_Smart]

My priority there would always be denying town the cop

The problem with doing this is then you pretty much have to claim cop. And skitter can tell you how well that goes :3

[Something_Smart]

Not_Mafia will take his slot from a "weird but could be town" read straight to this category.

If you know this is going to happen, doesn't it make it NAI?

[Something_Smart]

I tend to SR people who don't acknowledge the TPR principle. Hoopla is a prime candidate for this award.

You literally just saw her do this as town though, so whether you agree or disagree with it, it shouldn't have a bearing on her alignment.

[Something_Smart]

Forcing scum to claim PR early is good.

But forcing town to claim PR early is bad.

[Something_Smart]

we all like collectively have ignored the possibility of 1s commuter being the reason the kill went missing n1, i'm noting

I did so because commuter has literally never been successfully taken in any run of this setup before.

[Something_Smart]

If I did, it didn't get upgraded to long-term memory.

Go back and read her early posts from your game. She pushed the very same argument that scum intentionally avoiding collisions tends to put them higher up in the draft.

[Something_Smart]

dunn softed??? I thought he was hinting at something else entirely and that’s why I thought he was town.

also yeah, why does dunn get a pass for a soft?

Probably best to table this discussion until after Dunn claims...

[Something_Smart]

I don't even think I'm that good at reading lilith, honestly. I used to be good at reading her way back when, but her playstyle's changed a lot since then. She fooled me in our first game together and it shot my confidence.

[Something_Smart]

(Our first game together since she came back, that is.)

[Something_Smart]

Yeah.

[Something_Smart]

I'm here, though I should be focusing on homework.

I don't really have anything to add, though? What specifically did you want me to comment on?

[Something_Smart]

@S_S like, you were being critical of my assumption that there is at least one scum on the DGB D1 wagon, iirc -- what was that criticism based on?

I think that most VCA is not very useful (the biggest exception being "there are probably no more than X scum on this wagon") and turns out to be mostly right because of probability and that creates the illusion that it actually tells you something valuable. If all three scum are able to stay off a mis-execution wagon I think most scumteams would be thrilled to take that opportunity.

Statistically, you are probably right that there's at least one scum on the wagon, but you could say the same for any random group of seven players, so I at least am not going to try to draw any conclusions from it.