White flag #824 game over

[northsidegal]

uh, this is awkward. i just wanted to be informed when a replacement came up, i wasn't really expecting to just be immediately replaced in, or to have it announced that i asked for the notice.

whatever, i guess?

[northsidegal]

[northsidegal]

town?

yeah, i'm town. and hello to dwlee and you too pooky, i think that this may be the first time we've actually been in a game together (it's possible i'm forgetting some secret alts game, but still).

still a little shock at being thrown into this game unexpectedly, but i'm gonna start catching up now.

[northsidegal]

hi nsg pls do that obvtowny thing you do so I can get back to killing mc thanks <3

mm, we're fresh out of stock of obvtown nsg. looks like we've still got some "semi-decent reads explained lazily and left unpushed" in stock, though – does that work?

(this is a joke)

[northsidegal]

okay, let's do one of these, haven't done one for probably a long time. i'll try not to spam too much.

I'm gonna play this game old school style and only post 25 times total throughout the entire game to show you youngins how we used to do things in the old days.

Prepare for wallposts like you've never even seen before.

i remember muffins once played a game where he responded to literally every single post in the thread, votecounts and his own posts when he caught up to them included. always thought that was hilarious – not sure i'd have the energy to do it myself though, at least in a way that ended up slightly comedic like his was rather than just being annoying (which, to be fair, his probably still was).

i was gonna make a post saying how i also didn't like guiltylion, because him naked voting implo without any given thought felt odd, because in the coalition run i recently modded, he voted on page one after providing decent reasoning first. ...and then i went to actually *check* the game, and realized that no, i misremembered, he naked voted there too and provided reasoning later. so nevermind, carry on.

taking this as moderately town-indicative.

Okay flea gets to be town

dwlee likely town for that.

these are two surprising reads – not sure i can really see either of them, at least at this point.

You literally skipped the post with the connection you absolute baboon

with absolutely no evidence besides an intuitive feeling, i get the impression that this post is town-indicative for gamma emerald specifically. might be something to do with the implicit confidence / arrogance which potentially shows up more in gamma's town game – i've never been good at reading him, but this is just the impression i get reading this post.

[northsidegal]

dwlee likely town for that.

can you elaborate on this one? I don't see how that post makes Dwlee any more likely town, he's just accepting a townread on him from Flea

I also don't vibe with your Datisi scumread, I feel 47 is town!indicative from him because if he were scum wanting to bullshit a read on me he would have likely checked the Coalition game first to see whether he could find something different in my play, rather than claiming suspicion first without checking. Forgetting that I naked voted in the last game doesn't feel to me like the kind of fake thought process that scum would make up if he knew I'm town here

so does

Mindmeld Theory

™ say that i now have to townread GL for agreeing with me here? anyways, this also makes me realize that i probably misread that post from dwlee – it was probably a joke responding to infinity's post. this is part of why i don't really like to do these sorts of stream-of-reading catch-ups and sometimes get bothered when other people do them, but whatever.

I'm selecting Gamma as my other hard townread

Infinity are you townreading bugspray?

no

i think probably more often than not scum in this circumstance would make up at least some kind of read or something to say, especially after having just sort of defended bugs. so moderately +town for infinity here.

-snip-

inclined to townlean klick here.

[northsidegal]

i think that the conversation between goats and datisi on page 5 seems genuine on goats' part.

--

actually i think i'm gonna VOTE: bugspray

i don't think gamma provided any *great* rebuttals to bugspray, so the fact that they unvoted him anyway, and then voted implo (who just so happened to be the leading wagon) without any actual thoughts written out for why they did that? and with seeming a lot of confidence?

I feel like this has more reason to think gamma is scum but then you voted bugspray?

for some reason this post pings me as scum. can't explain it, just being upfront about it.

--
leaning town on infinity from the bottom of page 5 and top of page 6. i almost feel like the only thing i'm doing is seeing townreads or that i might have too much, but after checking i think probably i'm not actually going super overboard. also, GL once again says almost exactly what i was thinking.

--

Okay I got three pages in

GuiltyLion
Gamma Emerald
Not_Mafia
Flea the Magician
Infinity 324
MURDERCAT
Dwlee99

goats
bugspray
implosion
Klick
Datisi
PookyTheMagicalBear

this murdercat read is really weird.

[northsidegal]

do i really have to explain why implo is town

yup. you do infy.

so this post from implies that flea has been scumreading implosion, but i feel like if this were the case we probably would've seen some other posts either on the subject matter or directed towards implosion from flea, which we didn't.

So as ever, I can't resist a bit of mech talk, even in an open.

Setup seems designed with maf only having night talk, but our setup has maf daytalk. Also given the stats on the wiki show that this game has a 73% scumwin rate, how're people feeling about this?

i think it's fine, 7 is not a big enough sample size to draw conclusions based on past runs, and the EV of 47.8% is pretty townsided in this meta.

i actually disagree, my impression is that white flag is similar to both nightless and mountainous as one of the setups where the in-practice EV is pretty far from the expected EV (the EEV?). the mafia nightkill is super powerful, and it seems like basically any setup where you just have the town versus the mafia NK without adding in any other mechanics seems to have scum outperform EV. CFJ had a pretty good thread on this a while ago i think, i might try to find it later. anyways, none of this is really relevant to the game, just wanted to say.

I like Klick's 91. Flea is a lighter read but I liked the two reaction tests fae made (110 and 194). A little bit of gutread in there too tbh.

i don't think either of those posts are "reaction tests".

Gamma wants to actually do something with his opening and use it to solve. It wasn't just the entrance specifically but also how he built off of it and showed how he wanted to use it to solve in a genuine way

What solving did Gamma do with his opening exercise? I didn't see him make many reads off it, he moved on really quick.

Gamma talks about how the info gleaned from it can be used later for associatives and to get people a core group to discuss things with.

let me quote myself here – i think that if i were RC i would kill you for this post alone.

[northsidegal]

think that my readslist currently looks something like:

{nsg}
{infinity, datisi}
{klick}
{goats, pooky, gamma, guilty}
{implosion, NM} - null
{MURDERCAT, dwlee, flea}

not sure if i'm super happy with all of these placements? paranoia is preventing all four of gamma, guilty, goats and implosion from being higher ("guilty gammagoats implosion" coincidentally being the name of my new band). i think that eventually all of them probably will be higher (which is a weird thing to think maybe), but for now i'd like to see more. i'm similarly not

super

happy with the bottom, but it's fine.

I'm responding to goats there why would RC care?

it's mostly just me talking to myself, trying to emulate other people's thought processes. if i get the feeling that someone else would have been pinged by someone or would have reacted in some way that i myself don't, it means that that person knows something or is picking up on something that i'm not – figuring out what that might be could, i imagine, be a useful way for me to get better. hope that made sense.

[northsidegal]

how would you feel if i told you that it was an n=1 games evaluation of your meta

not saying it is just asking

[northsidegal]

nah.

at least, not right now. like i said, those are just where i'm at right now. i'd prefer to wait until i'm fully caught up before really getting into anything.

why the curiosity, if you don't mind my asking? are you surprised, or thinking that you're not playing particularly towny this game? maybe you just want to know how to fool me next time you're scum (or how you've already managed to fool me, if you're scum)?

[northsidegal]

bit of a weird request, wouldn't you agree?

[northsidegal]

MC r u going to explain why you are telling NSG to vote between you and dwlee?

Dwlee wagon is more viable than you

why not just ask me to vote dwlee then as opposed to introducing the idea as voting between you two? why even entertain the idea of me voting for you?

[northsidegal]

I think NSG's entrance actually isn't that good on reflection cause I feel like she sort of just said some consensusy stuff and then didn't scumread my posts but said other people would so she would?

are you asserting that i knew what the consensus was before reading the thread?

also, it's a little inaccurate (and possibly a little dishonest) to say that that's all i've said about you. there were a few posts that gut pinged me as scum, i thought that your readslist was fairly strange, and i think that my point regarding 236 has a little more nuance than you're giving it credit for (actually you seem to just outright be misinterpreting what i meant, intentionally or unintentionally).

why not just ask me to vote dwlee then as opposed to introducing the idea as voting between you two? why even entertain the idea of me voting for you?

I'm trying to make a 1v1 happen and I want everyone to pick sides

why?

[northsidegal]

{nsg}
{infinity, datisi}
{klick}
{goats, pooky, gamma, guilty}
{implosion, NM} - null
{MURDERCAT, dwlee, flea}

And then these reads are just weird.

Feel like implosion should be higher, klick lower. Relative placements feel weird from how I've thought about the game, and I also don't like the scumread on flea.

Unless this reads list isn't from after the implosion reaction to Pooky I'm scratching my head here.

based on what? your own reads? i understand the idea of pointing to someone's readslist and saying that the reads are weird—i've literally just said it to you—but there i said it because i thought that one or more reads you had weren't commensurate either with the evidence available at the time, as well as not being super consistent with your play up to that point. what about you just disagreeing with me makes my reads "weird" there?

your confidence in implosion being town based on that outburst seems unwarranted. i agree that it was towny, but i don't think that it outright settles him as town. the fact that you think that seems overconfident to me.

[northsidegal]

oh, missed this.

Yeah tbh the thoughts expressed in the catch-up don’t make sense with where I’m placed either, all I remember was calling my post @ goats a towntell

@nsg

as a general question, why are you paranoid of me/implo/GL/goats? Tbh I think implo should be obvtown to you because the one scumgame I remember from him was a game you modded and that was night-and-day from here (and in a recent completed game implo has asserted that his scum play still needs work, to paraphrase)

you i can't read. i wouldn't say i'm "paranoid" of you

specifically

, moreso just the idea of townreading you before really getting a ton of evidence. you were posting a lot towards the beginning of the game but around where i am at in my catchup you've sort of fallen off in posting (at least from memory), so i'm reticent to put you higher.

don't remember what game you're talking about with implosion being scum, and either way i don't have a very good model one way or the other of his play.

i think that people had some decent arguments regarding GL's reaction to goats' push, specifically what he said about an early vote and whether or not it makes people less likely to be aligned. i think that his response was pretty well reasoned but even still i have too much respect for his scumgame to put him as a top townread just because we tended to have the same thoughts on things.

goats i actually would put higher if i were remaking that list right now. think i had some alt paranoia that i don't think is warranted.

[northsidegal]

{infinity, datisi} -

No one has pushed them that I recall

{klick} -

Hardly pushed

{goats, pooky, gamma, guilty} -

been pushed/shaded moderately

{implosion, NM} - null -

implosion has been pushed more than the above. NM kind of sticks out here

{MURDERCAT, dwlee, flea} -

Me and MC have been pushed a lot and flea is not posting much.

what's your point?

[northsidegal]

also, curious to hear your thoughts on seemingly scumreading both me and murdercat. any thoughts on our interactions so far?

[northsidegal]

What I’m saying is I don’t TR Flea but I also don’t see how some people are as confident in fae being scum as they are

oh, and just to be clear, in case any part of this was directed at me – my readslists are purely relative. that whole cohort being at the bottom doesn't mean that i have super confident kill now scumreads on them, it just means that they're at the bottom relative to the rest of the playerlist. and that's basically exactly how i would describe my read on flea.

[northsidegal]

That your reads are very consensusy relative to how hard people have been pushed which is a very easy position to put yourself in if you're scum. As for you and MC... Idk, there aren't a ton of not!partner interactions between you and MC and MC's thunderdoming is kind of giving me cold feet because I don't know why scum!MC picks a fight I think he knows he loses there.

do you think that it's plausible that there's a relationship between the fact that some people haven't been pushed in a game and someone finding it easy to townread those people? doesn't it seem like the common thread connecting those two things is those players playing in a towny manner?

to be clear, no part of my read on anyone is based on how much or whether or not they've been pushed, this just seems like something of a silly accusation when you really unravel it. like you're starting at the position of me being scum and then coming up with a narrative to explain it.

[northsidegal]

Do I really have to argue that forcing people to commit between Dwlee and myself is protown in the case one of us ever flips?

i'm not sure anyone really disagrees with this. for me, though, the way you've gone about this just seems a little strange. isn't just focusing all your energy on saying dwlee is scum and you're town still accomplishing the goal of forcing people to commit, though? in other words, what is there to be gained from including yourself as an option in the framing? assuming that you believe that dwlee is scum, isn't it more beneficial to just focus on getting his flip before yours rather than trying to create as much "information" as possible in the event that you die? even if you did die, presumably we would still be able to see that a relationship existed even without you explicitly framing it as "pick me or him".

[northsidegal]

could you link me to that?

[northsidegal]

how often are you miselimed as town, murdercat?

[northsidegal]

yeah man you got me. I'm trying to convince the rest of the town to vote you out and am making posts that insinuate you are mafia. you really exposed my hidden motivations there.

back to catching up – this style of playing where every post you make to someone you suspect is designed to maximally say how so super scummy they are is honestly just really obnoxious. it also makes you look sort of foolish if you're ever wrong. not that i expect it to mean a lot to you or anyone, but i would personally advise against doing it. for in-game reasons it hurts your reputation if you're wrong, out of game i think it makes the game less enjoyable for the person you're talking to and probably other people in the game as well. there's also a subtler psychological aspect which i suspect actually does make a difference – i think that acting this way probably makes it harder for you to change your mind. if you act super confident / arrogant towards someone in making every post over the top in calling them scum, you run into some kind of heavy cognitive dissonance if you ever see evidence that that person is town. you would have to reconcile the fact that this person may be town with the way that you were treating them, which isn't an easy thing to do. thus, like i said, i would suspect it'd be harder to actually change your mind.

anyways, just thought that might be interesting.

[northsidegal]

I would expect someone who won Paragon of Mafia Hunters to be able to at least come up with like 1 scumread or scumlean or look like he's trying to find a baddie.

But like cmon this is pretty weaksauce.

while this reasoning might be valid, as another out-of-game point here (oh no, am i getting preachy) and as a former paragon, it

really

sucks having people say things like this to you. makes you want to go back to being a complete unknown, or just not play, or completely tank any expectations people have of you. i think there are ways of phrasing this exact point here which avoid this problem, but yeah just wanted to say that.

why are all of your townreads tone and "they did something similar to a previous town game"

What else should I use 15 pages in?

ooh man, i think this might be really scummy.

Goats seems desperate to stop the bugs wagon so maybe we are on the right track?

this is a bit of a weird post for someone who doesn't seem to strongly scumread goats.

that being said, i feel like i'm getting to a point in my catchup where i might just only be confbiasing so i think i'm gonna stop for now.

--

Tangentially related, hello nsg, glad to be playing with you even if it was not entirely by choice lol

nice to see you!

[northsidegal]

you know, i really gotta get the ellibereth marketing team to help me get a tell named after me. i want people to be using the "northtell" or the "NSGtell" even if they've never heard of me

[northsidegal]

i think that people had some decent arguments regarding GL's reaction to goats' push, specifically what he said about an early vote and whether or not it makes people less likely to be aligned. i think that his response was pretty well reasoned but even still i have too much respect for his scumgame to put him as a top townread just because we tended to have the same thoughts on things.

is this like an inverse pocket where you claim respect for my scumgame to get on my good side

but on a serious note, what are you basing this on, I feel my scumgame is noticeably weak compared to my towngame

honestly, i'm not entirely sure – i've just always thought of you as a skilled scumplayer.

it might actually even go back to some of my first newbie games? you were in one or two of them, and even if you weren't scum maybe i just internalized you as "good at the game" and that bled over or something? still, i think you're probably understating things – i'm almost certain you've had some pretty good scum wins.

[northsidegal]

which previous posts in the game are yours?

[northsidegal]

i'm surprised to hear i'm one of your favorites after only one game (really more like half a game from me). it's still appreciated, though.

[northsidegal]

VOTE: flea

[northsidegal]

how often are you miselimed as town, murdercat?

Fairly rarely, though getting run up on D1 when I'm feeling lazy happens fairly often

interesting, thanks.

[northsidegal]

opinion discarded for using mafsilver, murdercat is my new lock townread

[northsidegal]

NSG incorporated makes moves to copyright a tell and look at how many imitators prop up, truly i am a trendsetter

[northsidegal]

is it worse than your meta sample size for NM, though?

[northsidegal]

it's possible white flag changes that consideration, though.

now i'm somewhat nostalgic for team mafia 2018 white flag, that was a good game.

[northsidegal]

I'm at 3/7 and the reasons on me are literally "PoE!"
Especially given 2 of those are capable of better.

so what do you make of it?

[northsidegal]

also, out of curiosity, who's the odd one out who isn't capable of better?

[northsidegal]

also, out of curiosity, who's the odd one out who isn't capable of better?

You're the one I'm unfamiliar with, so I don't know if to expect better.

interesting, although you skipped over my more salient question.

[northsidegal]

I still think MC meta holds up

mm, i feel like you might be putting too much stock in what sort of seems to be to be a fundamentally weak meta read. if murdercat's pattern of behavior here is replicated across many scum games but only the amount of content posted in one post differs, that seems to me to be sort of a poorly founded reason for a town read.

[northsidegal]

i want to finish fully catching up (really i think i'm only missing like 3 pages, but still) and then maybe even do another quick skim through before really deciding on where i want to go. i feel like i was starting to get confbiased when i last left off my read and i want another look with fresh eyes. i realize that today i basically did nothing to contribute to that, but i've been a bit busy.

i think flea is a pretty effective spot for my vote right now. speaking of, just so you don't miss it, i'd appreciate an answer to 1050, flea – you've talked a lot about the reasons or lackthereof of the people voting you, but i'm not sure i've really seen your conclusions from that.

[northsidegal]

If you want info and think dwlee is town yeet nsg who is actually good at scum

lol

are you joking or?

[northsidegal]

hmm

now, i don't think we've actually played together before nor do i think you've been in a game i've modded, but i sort of get the feeling that you probably would never make that kind of comment as town. i think that if i were just trying to keep things super simple 1109 alone probably warrants your death.

[northsidegal]

wow, i wonder if my thought process is really so different from all of yours here.

the first point that struck me upon reading it was murdercat saying that i have a good scumgame. i think that one of the things that i'm probably most known for on site is that statement being basically the opposite of true. different people have different beliefs about the extent to which i am bad at scum: some think i intentionally flake or sandbag (i don't), some just think i'm incompetent, some have a ton of paranoia over the possibility that this is the game that i finally roll scum and turn things up. either way, basically nobody thinks i'm actually good at it. murdercat seemingly doesn't know this, and only comes to the opposite conclusion through a quick glance at a single stat at the very top of my wiki. this seems a little irresponsible to me?

now, i've been known to make some lazy reads in my time, but i think that this kind of goes a bit beyond that. it just seems kind of crazy to me to base a recommendation for who to eliminate off of such, to be honest, poorly researched information which ends up being completely incorrect. you guys really don't see anything super weird about saying "if you want info, elim nsg, she's great at scum"???


i'll also say that i wasn't a fan of the whole keep my alive because my d1s are bad statement (and i never am from anyone, really), although if murdercat says the same thing as town then i'll look past it.

[northsidegal]

Yeah that feels like NSG is trying to channel other play styles to hide behind them

elaborate?

[northsidegal]

like, i get that in a sense i'm kind of doing the same thing i said feels bad to pooky earlier, but does murdercat actually make that much of an irresponsible read as town? like i said, i don't think we've actually ever played together nor have i modded a game he's been in to my knowledge, but based on what i've seen from him (from, say, the open setups forum) and heard about him from other people, i really wouldn't think that he would do that as town. this is a genuine question here, i'm actually asking if my perception is just completely off or not.

[northsidegal]

maybe i'm such an old timer at this point that none of you guys think of me as someone with a bad scumgame??? i haven't rolled scum in a long time but i would figure that team mafia 2020 was such a horrible performance that it would still stick around

then again i guess that was like nearly two years ago now???

[northsidegal]

Yeah that feels like NSG is trying to channel other play styles to hide behind them

elaborate?

Between shading dwlee by saying RC would have pushed him and that, it feels like you’re going “I think others would push this so I will”. There’s two issues I have with that, it’s shifting the blame somewhat because you can claim you were just playing like someone else might have, and it makes any meta deviations harder to pin.

what about 1120 seems to you like "i think others would push this so i will"? and what about anything from my play seems like "channeling other playstyles"? just off-hand mentioning something i think someone else would notice once doesn't to me seem to make it so that somehow any meta deviations would be more difficult to see in me.

shrug. i have no intentions of backtracking anything by claiming somehow that i was only going off of what i think that someone who isn't even in this game would have thought – i think that would be a pretty weak defense anyways, so i'm not entirely sure why you think it's some kind of plan i would undertake as scum.

[northsidegal]

like, i get that in a sense i'm kind of doing the same thing i said feels bad to pooky earlier, but does murdercat actually make that much of an irresponsible read as town? like i said, i don't think we've actually ever played together nor have i modded a game he's been in to my knowledge, but based on what i've seen from him (from, say, the open setups forum) and heard about him from other people, i really wouldn't think that he would do that as town. this is a genuine question here, i'm actually asking if my perception is just completely off or not.

i think this is more of a laziness tell than a scumtell. though, murder just going back to hiding behind his brick wall is infuriating and a little scummy. i would like to leave him alive for another day but jeez

sure, and like i said, i've been known to make a few lazy reads in my time as well, i just think that there's a certain point at which a lazy read crosses a threshold into being one that plausibly indicates someone might not actually care about the truth of the statement they're making. and this isn't even necessarily meant to convince you guys of that, moreso to just explain my thought process in posting 1120, because strangely to me it seems like people are coming at it from a totally different perspective than i am.

[northsidegal]

so i will"? and what about anything from my play seems like "channeling other playstyles"? just off-hand mentioning something i think someone else would notice once doesn't to me seem to make it so that somehow any meta deviations would be more difficult to see in me.

The fact you’re like “I’d probably push this if I were playing a different way” tells me that you’re not playing a natural game, you’re forcing things in some way. You could be town doing it perhaps, but rn it feels like a scum tactic

?

do you really think that saying "if i were just keeping things simple then X" indicates that i'm "forcing" my playstyle?

[northsidegal]

i just don't really know how to respond to 1146. i can't really come up with anything super intelligent to say that isn't just some rewording of "that simply is not true".

this entire last page or so has just been really bizarre for me.

[northsidegal]

also he's goon enough as town that i'm fine boping him there

good*

d and n aren't even close on the keyboard lol, i wonder

freudian scumslip, or your subconscious telling you something?

[northsidegal]

hmm

now, i don't think we've actually played together before nor do i think you've been in a game i've modded, but i sort of get the feeling that you probably would never make that kind of comment as town. i think that if i were just trying to keep things super simple 1109 alone probably warrants your death.

Actually death kitty has said that before repeatedly, it's their literal D1 defence and they're not wrong either.

VOTE: NorthSideGal

by the way, question for you flea – are you voting me here just because you think i'm wrong on murdercat? why did this post lead you to vote me?

[northsidegal]

nsg's "i'm baffled that people are disagreeing with me here" is probably not an act

it's not so much that i'm baffled that people are disagreeing. i'm baffled a little bit at gamma's thing, but i think i've sort of come to understand the confusion—or rather, the reaction to what i said to murdercat. it's literally just because i'm out of touch.

to put it in a way that the modern mafia audience can maybe relate more, imagine if murdercat said the same thing to bell. or to creature (if you guys still know him). it just doesn't make sense – it is literally the kind of comment that necessitates asking if someone is joking. for someone who isn't super familiar or up to date about me who thinks that i must have a good scumgame or even that i just probably do (e.g. datisi), i understand the reaction to what i said. it looks like i just responded to someone saying something pretty mundane by saying that it alone warrants their death, which is weird.

[northsidegal]

who? murdercat? like i said, i don't think we've ever played together before.

[northsidegal]

i voted you because i saw your reaction to guiltylion's vote on you and wanted to elicit something further.

[northsidegal]

oh, you broke your promise, you didn't answer 1158.

i honestly would answer that question that you just asked, but i'd prefer if you'd answer that first.

[northsidegal]

i would appreciate if mc gave actual reasons for saying that

Because I think I will be very obviously town on D2 and I don't think that applies to NSG

yeah so i'm going to have to say something here that might sound like an accusation towards you, but it's just meant as a neutral description of fact: nobody with any

actual

amount of familiarity with my play would honestly say this about me, or say that i'm a proficient scum player. even the most charitable of people towards me like dannflor would only say that while my scumgame was bad before it's been a long time and this might be the game that eventually fools everyone.

i don't doubt that you have probably read some of my wiki, but i don't think that negates anything that i've said so far.

[northsidegal]

now, onto something that could i guess be an accusation: that doesn't seem like an actual reason to scumread me? it seems more like a reason to not kill you and then a reason to not, not kill me. if that makes sense.

[northsidegal]

oh, you broke your promise, you didn't answer 1158.

i honestly would answer that question that you just asked, but i'd prefer if you'd answer that first.

I never promised, I offered a deal
I feel there's a strong agenda behind your actions, your votes and stances seem too deliberate to be town and feel sorta orchastrated.

and what posts contribute to that feeling? or, alternatively, how long have you felt that way? what about 1120 lead to you voting me?

[northsidegal]

without trying to come across as hostile, i'm not really interested in playing any sort of one question a turn game with you. all i care about is trying to read you accurately, and if

you

care about that happening then it would help me if you were more forthcoming with your thought process.

to be clear, i'm not being reticent just for fun or to be annoying or whatever. the specific reason i'm avoiding elaborating on my read on you is to avoid influencing your behavior, a policy i hold pretty consistently across every game i've played for a long time now.

[northsidegal]

wow, it's really quite unpleasant to try to interact with you. i don't mean to offend you by saying that, although i recognize that it probably is something of an offensive thing to say.

[northsidegal]

alright, VOTE: murdercat

i think that murdercat is probably the best elim for today. i think there are decent arguments for the other wagons at the moment, but ultimately i feel as though there's a lot more uncertainty when it comes to the other people as compared to murdercat: yes, NM's play here is pretty bad, but it's not really outside the realm of some town games he's had. dwlee i also think has been pretty scummy, but i think that in comparison there seems to me to just be a lot less uncertainty in voting murdercat. it seems like murdercat is pretty strongly within the pattern of behavior of his scumgame here with the only mitigating factor being a single towny post. based on a short review i did of a few of his town and scum games, i think that holistically his scumhunting this game has been comparatively weak relative to the town games that i saw, and roughly the same as in the scum games i saw: this game i think he's asked few insightful questions or questions that would really demonstrate a super deep thought process (again, no offense). i also think that a lot of the reasoning and justification he's given for his opinions has just been really notably weird.

of course, we all have lazy games and i think that me and murdercat seem like relatively similar players, so i can completely empathize with that. but that doesn't mean that sometimes those "lazy games" are actually just scumgames. as i said earlier, i think that some of the things murdercat has said cross the line from lazy to just plain irresponsible, way more than i would expect from him as town.

i have a final point here but i think it probably deserves its own post.

[northsidegal]

why would i basically cause murdercat's death here if we were partners

[northsidegal]

i mean like i'm not trying to take all the credit for his wagon or something here but we had basically tied wagons between NM, dwlee and murdercat, and i think that i pretty reasonably could have voted one of the other two or just kept voting flea and doing so probably would have materially contributed to murdercat's survival today

[northsidegal]

ooh, i wonder if i shouldn't have said that, maybe just leaving that impression in the air would've reduced the chances that i get shot. not that i think i must be the n1 shot or anything, just that it still makes sense to reduce the chances of it.

[northsidegal]

NSG when are you going to post your final point?

been doing the research to really type it up, i think it's a little gilding the lily at this point considering murdercat is probably already assuredly today's elim, but maybe it's worthwhile anyways.

[northsidegal]

I don't need like a super comprehensive write up if that's taking too much effort I'm just curious what it is

Sure. Most of it was honestly just going to be repurposing a tell that was once used on me, so I figure I can just quote the original being used against me for you here:

Spoiler:

Subject: Newbie 1867 - Game Over

NSG Meta Tell #1:

*Out of 36 completed town games, NSG has only been mislynched three times, which is an excellent record. I would argue that most people who are difficult to mislynch are the types of people who dig their heels in and fight hard when confronted with the possibility of their own lynch. NSG is most certainly one of those people, but she hasn't displayed that quality here.

For example, take Partition Mafia. NSG opened the game up with a ton of lurking, but, when it looked likelier and likelier that she would be lynched, stepped up her game in a huge way. She's clearly rattled when voted incorrectly in mafia games (which is a common trait), and that means that when she's voted in games as town it tends to increase her emotional investment in games, resulting in posts like these:

You're not unvoting group 3 after I said it was a scumclaim from my opinion, so why should I listen to yours?

YOU NEVER EXPLAINED WHY IT WAS A SCUMCLAIM.

kokichi - i have been doing nohting but asking you to talk things over. if you are town, you are playing like utter trash making that vote right now.

Now, I know that it's not fair to expect her to get angry every time she's approaching a lynch, but a major problem I had with NSG's play before today is that she just felt listless the whole way through - now she's about to get lynched and be a major part of town losing the game, but there's no significant change in her play: she still feels flat, and she isn't focused on helping the town solve the game after her lynch (she'd argue that she's just waiting for me or waiting for someone else, but I find that bullshit - she has a full game to analyze and the best she can give for scumsuspects is her shallow scumread on Rampage and her nonread on me, don't think it's unreasonable to ask her to produce more than that).

The other thing that stands out to me is the fact that she continues gamesolving while she goes down the whole time, AND there are more depth to her reads. For example, take her read on Scioness here: it's "Scioness is town because of meta", and then no doubt, no paranoia, nothing. She has a similarly strong townread on Wisdom in Partition Mafia, but even then, she still considers reasons why he could be scum (as in here). Her scumreads are more nebulous due to the nature of the game, but it's clear that she's trying to talk to her townreads about what she thinks the best lynch and that she's trying hard to guide the town to a win - I don't get that sense at all here.

Similar response to being lynched here - is upset that people don't see her as obvtown as shit, starts to suspect people for pushes on her who she expects to know her better - this one is a little weird because there's a plan to win the game in place and I don't actually understand where her lynch came from at all...?

Her play here is pretty much exactly what I expect - after clawing out of her mislynch D1 (predecessor was suspected), there's great scumhunting vs RC (the scum spearheading her push as she goes down), strong emotional investment almost instantly, fights it all the way down.

Contrast that with Micro 792; she gets a bit frustrated at Mathdino for reasons that aren't "I'm obviously town and this lynch is horrible", and argues with him as she goes down but it's much more going through the motions (like it is here), and the strong sense of her scumhunting as she goes down and trying to guide the town in the right direction just isn't there.

Basically, I think that the "NSG Meta Tell" basically applies exactly to murdercat's play here. Out of the 16 completed post-hiatus town games on his wiki, he was miseliminated in only two of them, which is a pretty great record. As Nacho said, I think that the type of people who get miseliminated infrequently are those who really dig their heels in when challenged by votes and don't tend to really give up – not necessarily the effort, but the engagement tends to increase as the pressure increases. I haven't been able to give it as much of a read as I would've liked, but I think that this is pretty evident from a skim of his ISO in Mini Normal 2170. (Curiously, it seems like they were in a very similar situation as we find ourselves in this game, with murdercat calling for Pooky's elimination as he goes down – it seems to me like the manner in which he did so there is notable different than this game, but it's still noted that he was right in that game).

And I just don't see that this game. Explicitly saying that he's given a final mostly unexplained readslist and then dipping out to get hammered seems like the exact opposite of that. It's possible that this is an outlier game for him in terms of laziness or uninvestment, but even if that is the case, we can only go off of the evidence that is actually available to us.

[northsidegal]

by the way, happy scumday guilty!

[northsidegal]

oh, sorry guys, i was eating breakfast:

"yes"

[northsidegal]

oh wow, scumday for me, hadn't realized. gosh it's sobering to think about, and more than a little terrifying.

anyways, i'll catch up in the morning.

[northsidegal]

it's funny, i find myself going through reoccurring patterns and yet each time i believe that i'm good enough to change it the next one around. i'm often not.

unfortunately i don't exactly have a ton of time to really high effort this game. i am really curious to hear a more clear version of why exactly people think i'm scum, though - especially from pooky, who indicated at least some familiarity with my play on d1.

i'd appreciate at least maybe getting the chance to reread day one with the flips in mind, which i haven't gotten a chance to do. not sure why people seem to think that my absence for day two was somehow alignment indicative.

[northsidegal]

and do you think there's significant evidence of that this game? and if your response to that is to point to my non-appearance recently, 1) what explains my play on day 1 and 2) how does your belief compare to the alternative hypothesis of me just actually getting busy recently?

[northsidegal]

-shrug-

like i said, i haven't gotten a chance to do a ton of thorough reading, but has there actually been any

real

partner hunting with goats today? or has it mostly been that lazy default of doing away with someone who's not around?

[northsidegal]

ahaha, wow. what is that even supposed to mean? and what does GL being town have to do with anything?

[northsidegal]

I think if you were town it wouldn't be difficult for you to convince us

like, you realize this is a ridiculous thing to say, right?

[northsidegal]

ahaha, wow. what is that even supposed to mean? and what does GL being town have to do with anything?

oh im just sheeping him cuz im a little lamb now

that's great to hear, really makes the game enjoyable

[northsidegal]

I think if you were town it wouldn't be difficult for you to convince us

like, you realize this is a ridiculous thing to say, right?

You did say you were able to obvtown ?

did i misremember or something

you are being wildly bad faith right now.

[northsidegal]

like, you've completely sidestepped my questions regarding your read on me, then implied it was just sheeping, and this idea that "if you were town it wouldn't be hard to show us" is just flat out an absurd thing to say. i can't reason you out of a position you don't seem to have any reasons to have, and again - i really just don't have all that much time, in case you're expecting some giant wall posts.

[northsidegal]

time for some 100% motivated reasoning.

VOTE: pooky

i'm listening to what murdercat said. he was right last time this happened, maybe he's right again. your play day one and in fact this entire game has been flat out lazy, uncaring, your vote on yourself day two was performative, and i don't believe that you actually believe any of the things you're saying to be.

honestly this vote is more of just a statement of spite than anything, but whatever. if i'm still alive next tomorrow then i'll review more.

[northsidegal]

i mean you disappearing for a long period of time feels like what scum!you does and sheeping is just part of it,

again:

and do you think there's significant evidence of that this game? and if your response to that is to point to my non-appearance recently, 1) what explains my play on day 1 and 2) how does your belief compare to the alternative hypothesis of me just actually getting busy recently?

[northsidegal]

there's actually nothing about my play this game that matches my scum play and it's not even close. and i don't just randomly expect people to know that especially given how infrequently i play now, but for someone claiming some familiarity with me it's completely different.

[northsidegal]

if all you're going to do is omgus its very hard for me to believe you're town

is there some reason you can't answer my questions? it just feels dishonest for you not to answer really basic questions like: "if nsg doesn't post much as scum, why is this only happening now instead of day one?" and "what evidence is there to believe the idea that this is an expression of scum meta instead of real life business?"

[northsidegal]

r you going to do some kind of self meta thing to show you're town?

all i know of your scum play is that someone told me you're not really interested in solving and you have trouble sustaining effort when you're scum and I see you're not around so I think probly scum.

aren't you supposed to be a better player than this? like, even if you're scum pretending to be town. that's sort of my hangup here.

and this isn't even about you being wrong-because obviously i was wrong, probably am, and will be again and again in every game, there's nothing bad about that-it's about the thought process.

[northsidegal]

"if nsg doesn't post much as scum, why is this only happening now instead of day one?"


there's a difference between sustained effort over an entire game and effort at the beginning.

and you have evidence or reason to believe that one is specifically scum indicative for me over the other? or are you just fitting a narrative?

"what evidence is there to believe the idea that this is an expression of scum meta instead of real life business?"

I don't know what your RL is like because I'm neither a stalker nor a psychic.

so what you're saying is that you have no evidence whatsoever, no reason to believe what you're saying over the null hypothesis.

[northsidegal]

you say you want some bombshell post or self meta that clears me? fine, here's a truth bomb for you - i have to go to sleep and wake up in less than five hours. there's no scum game on the planet that i'd still be here talking for.

[northsidegal]

I just see you not around and think "that's scummy she's not here"


yes I am very simpleminded.

I have no evidence about your RL because it would be creepy af if I did.

it's not about you having evidence of me in real life. it's about you not having a reason to believe the hypothesis that my not being here is scum indicative compared to the null hypothesis of me just being busy, which consistently happens in town and scum games. if you don't have this reason, why still accept the alternative hypothesis?

[northsidegal]

No. The game works on

inferences

based on reasons to believe one hypothesis over another. If you don't have such a reason, then yes, you would he just making guesses.