Open 206 - Trendy and Subversive C9 - Over

[Fate]

First post.

This game is interesting because of all the joke pairings:

McZombie+McGriddle
nessarae56+farside22
Lacey+Fate(both start with capital letters *shrug*)

Vote: chauchaudotcom

For not having a joke pairing.

[Fate]

And Farside and Nessarae are both girls too!?

*mind is blown*

[Fate]

Do you believe in policy lynching and why?

I still have never seen a town completely go all the way to lynch on a lurker, or some other policy. I think policy violations coupled with other arguments (Lynch all Liars, and he's been acting scummy, or LaL combined with poor content when they do post) is the best way to go.

Do you think scum lurk more then town?

Depends on a lot of factors. Inexperienced scum usually don't know how to handle pressure, so they "disappear" when the heat arrives. Like, McG, I've seen town power lurk even harder than scum. Still, I define lurking as not posting/pushing new content (posting fluff or recap) so it is still a decent tell.

How active would you say you are in a game?

Maybe too active. I should be busier with RL in March, so don't expect me to keep it up. Though for the rest of February I'll be on multiple times a day to post in all my games.

[Fate]

@Chau: Can't really answer that. Alt confidentiality 'ya know

I'll toss out a question for the group:
Do you believe lying about something *other* than your role can ever be pro-town? Why?

Yes. This came up very practically in the Pick your Power game I am currently in. An obvious town player happened to be the one-shot governor, a very powerful role. No other townies had claimed Bullet Proof at this point, so he could have very easily claimed BP as to avoid a NK, and remained a pretty likely townie in the game.

I'm sure there are hundreds of other situations, (claiming doctor to draw NK as a bomb, etc.) where it could apply.

Town usually seems to have this "fear of lying" that really can hamper gameplay at times. In the same game I mentioned above, a neighborizer (someone who creates unconfirmed masons) could have lied about a connection in order to draw the NK away from the two townies he had linked.

Lying is powerful tool that can be used in the right circumstance. I remember a newbie game in which Kairyuu fakeclaimed Doctor, and then he drew the NK with the real doctor protecting him. Priceless.

I hope I'm not coming off as too pro-lying here. I'm saying as long as your reasoning is

very solid

(read, will be understood by fellow townies) that townlies can be distinguished from Scum gambits/fakeclaims quite easily.

[Fate]

Lacey your argument makes sense, in that town shouldn't fakeclaim doctor.

So I'll ask you this, if someone claimed doctor at L-1 would you lynch them?

[Fate]

So I'll ask you this, if someone claimed doctor at L-1 would you lynch them?

Explain to me the benefits of the line of questioning? As far as I can see, this would only help scum.

Unvote; Vote: Fate

It was reaction fishing, I wanted to see her reasoning. This was the part of the post I didn't include:

In that situation I would back off the lynch barring a counterclaim. This is because in this game a doctor counterclaim would=1 scum for 1 doctor, AND we would have the (assuming unknown) Nurse become the doctor.

It would depend on the situation, and my general scum feeling for them. If I had collected a lot of evidence that pointed toward them being scum, I'd lynch. If I was heavily unsure, I'd likely vote to lynch someone I had a stronger scum case built for.

I'd also ask them to post a symmetrically encrypted sentence telling us who they were protecting that night. Which they could then deliver the symmetric key for the next day after night actions had been revealed.

For the sake of my response symmetrically encrypted sentence=breadcrumb.

Why do you think that scum is incapable of breadcrumbing? I really don't like this post. I think town would've included a counterclaim situation in their response, like mine did. Your earlier posts "Town shouldn't fakeclaim doctor" come across as if you are scum not wanting Town to mess with your head by fakeclaiming. And your reaction to my question sounds like a boilerplate town reply: "depends on the situation and how scummy I thought they were," without taking this particular game into the equation.

Vote: Lacey

[Fate]

Why do you think that scum is incapable of breadcrumbing? I really don't like this post. I think town would've included a counterclaim situation in their response, like mine did. Your earlier posts "Town shouldn't fakeclaim doctor" come across as if you are scum not wanting Town to mess with your head by fakeclaiming.

Are you saying a VT should fake claim and possible out a PR here?

Not in the slightest. I said that we should lynch who ever is counter-claimed, because the PR counter-claiming in this setup trades us 1-1. Of course it isn't a trade at all if a VT fakeclaims. I agreed with Lacey that town shouldn't fakeclaim but for different reasons.

Mine included the setup as a factor, hers was all about math and statistics of "lynching the real doctor instead." Why would we lynch the real doctor, when he should counter-claim right away in this setup?

[Fate]

For the sake of my response symmetrically encrypted sentence=breadcrumb.

Why do you think that scum is incapable of breadcrumbing?

I don't think that. I just think getting that extra information helps town either way. Really I don't think role claims, except for cops with a proven lynch record on scum, are all that powerful of evidence in any case. Scum can make these claims as much as anyone can, and in all cases, more information is always good for town.

Like I said, in this setup, a scum fakeclaim is tantamount to suicide.

If the doc claim is proven to be scum, who they claim to have protected can be interesting evidence, especially when building likely scum pairs. If they are town, it can help produce consistency in their story.

Interesting evidence? Who scum claimed to have protect is just WIFOM. It might be the most town player (to try and convince people they are the town doctor making rational decisions) or their partner as WIFOM.

I really don't like this post. I think town would've included a counterclaim situation in their response, like mine did.

Claims and counterclaims without proof are all just WIFOM. They don't bear at all on my votes unless I am truly on the fence.

What? This is all sorts of wrong. They aren't WIFOM. They are:

1. Scum fakeclaim, town counterclaims, Lynch the original.
2. Town claims, Scum counterclaims, Lynch the original, they flip something else, Kill scum the next day.

Both situations we trade 1-1. Claims and counterclaims should DEFINITELY be taken into consideration.

That's an awful lot of presumption and WIFOM. I'd take a random vote, but your concocting a lot of strange ideas, and thinking as a scummy player. Not enough for me to vote you, but I'd like to hear why you immediately made such a huge and random jump of logic.

And your reaction to my question sounds like a boilerplate town reply: "depends on the situation and how scummy I thought they were," without taking this particular game into the equation.

I vote based on my scum list. I keep detailed notes from scum hunting on what was said by who and when. I yield far more credence to this than any single other piece of information. I had McGriddle pretty well pegged from day one in my most previous game because of it.

What does "I'd take a random vote" mean? You're saying I'm thinking as a scummy player, but that isn't enough to vote me?[/list]

[Fate]

Unvote, Vote: Lacey

*Vote subject to change.

Oh snap, you're at L-1?

Unvote

because I just wanted pressure, not a lynch

Saying your vote is subject to change is either saying "JUST FOR PRESSURE" which we can all agree makes the pressure pointless, or scum who want to be able to backpedal.

FoS: McGriddle

Well town, Scum may have just tipped their hands. If someone hammers me (since I believe I am now at L-1), you know them to be scum.

If not, you can be pretty sure at least one, and probably two of nessarae56, McGriddle, and Fate are scum.

Why would scum quickhammer?

That

would tip their hands, and be like (once again) trading 1-1, if you did indeed flip town.

[Fate]

Like I said, in this setup, a scum fakeclaim is tantamount to suicide.

Only if there is a cop, which there may not be.

That doesn't make sense. It is suicide even without a cop...

Interesting evidence? Who scum claimed to have protect is just WIFOM. It might be the most town player (to try and convince people they are the town doctor making rational decisions) or their partner as WIFOM.

Any evidence is interesting evidence. Scum have to lie and make up details. Sometimes they do it well, sometimes they do it wrong. It's best for town to have all the evidence up front. For instance if the doc claims to protect someone who is lynched and flips doc, well that's something now isn't it?

Yeah that's something. If someone else flips doc then whoever claimed doc (REGARDLESS of who they said they protected) was lying. I'm not seeing your line of thinking here.

What? This is all sorts of wrong. They aren't WIFOM. They are:

1. Scum fakeclaim, town counterclaims, Lynch the original.
2. Town claims, Scum counterclaims, Lynch the original, they flip something else, Kill scum the next day.

Both situations we trade 1-1. Claims and counterclaims should DEFINITELY be taken into consideration.

You're forgetting a situation:

3. Town fake claims, scum counter claims
4. Town fake claims, doc counter claims

How do you sort these out? What about:

5. Scum fake claims, scum counter claims?

Or a series of counter claims?

It is anything but 1-1. It's complex low information exchange and not very informative.

I wasn't sorting that out. I thought we had agreed for the purposes of this game that

Town should not fakeclaim

. Which is why McG is right up there with you on my scumlist.

3. & 4. Town shouldn't fakeclaim
5. If both scum fakeclaimed countering eachother, the REAL Cop/Doc would counterclaim them both as liars! Why would scum ever do that in this setup? That would be double suicide.

What does "I'd take a random vote" mean? You're saying I'm thinking as a scummy player, but that isn't enough to vote me?

I'm saying you're using odd jumps of logic that are far too complex for D1. I think it's suspicious (not scummy necessarily though). A random vote on me, or a vote on me based on logic that wasn't convoluted wouldn't look as weird.

I want an explanation for your bizarre logic, I'd like to hear you talk it out.

I really don't see how my logic is bizarre. You putting forth situations that are highly unlikely, and ignoring the setup, is what is bizarre. Too complex for D1? I'm posing situations that are only relevant to D1 and THIS particular open setup. You are talking mafia theory about all sorts of situations.

Did you know that mafia are much more likely to debate Mafia theory than town? Everyone has their own opinions on general theory, so it is easy regardless of alignment. But you seem to not want to take a strong stance on this setup in particular (with regards to fakeclaiming) as if to keep your options open.

[Fate]

Fate I literally just said all I wanted was pressure. That is WIFOM to say scum would want to back petal. Town back petal too, it's one of the problems behind vote being used as a scum tell.

Votes shouldn't be used as scumtells? What the hell? Vote analysis is often underused, but a very powerful tool. I've seen people peg scum off voting paterns alone.

And you use the word "WIFOM" again. I've never seen you act like this is in the few town games I've played with you.

Also, "just wanting pressure" is pointless. If you're not going to lynch them, why would the player feel any pressure at all?

[Fate]

Should I meantion in this argument of claims. That when a cop or doc dies this means the deputy/nurse will be active. I talked with DLA before the game and I said this set up only makes sense that you have a cop then the other person's role will automatically be deputy or the role is useless.

Yeah I was confused at first about this. When I read it on the wiki, it seemed like:

Either Doctor OR Cop can be in this game
and also

Either Nurse OR Deputy can be in this game.

Such that you could have a Deputy with a Doctor, etc.

Which would make the situation of claiming one hell of a cluster***.

But thankfully we have an understandable open setup, with 1 pair of PR and backup.

I think at this point, with such a low vote number being needed to lynch, I can respectfully ask:

All remaining players please unvote your RVS votes, unless you want them to remain as real votes.

Because it almost looks like Lacey/I are townies arguing while McG joins one side, then realizes a L-1 vote is a serious thing and backpedals. Then he calls backpedaling WIFOM and that town do it as well..

Unvote:

I'd like to vote McG but I think there is a random vote on him still.

[Fate]

Ok so you're using SE to defend the reason you backed off at L-1? Also if you are a SE, why did you not realize she was at L-2? I realized I put here there, and look what I caught.

[Fate]

You didn't see my post? You took 10 minutes to post one paragraph? I can understand doing a thorough PBPA or something that takes 10, I've even taken 20, to make a post.

And how was it obvious you didn't see my post? Are you saying that I followed onto your reasoning?

@McZombie: Please post, there is a lot of content for you to catchup on and offer your opinion
@Chau: Please tell us what you think of the situation, and whether you are going to keep your RVS on McGriddle or not.

[Fate]

if u voted for me right now i would ask u why?

This is only my second game so sorry if i got it confused.

So far i have missed to much i was off for like 3 hours and there is already 4 pages. So yeah y'll move really fast here.

What are you... oh responding to Chau's random question. You choose an interesting game for your second one, heh. Setup wise I mean.

[Fate]

I have a few questions and comment to make here.

Fate:

I really don't like this post. I think town would've included a counterclaim situation in their response, like mine did. Your earlier posts "Town shouldn't fakeclaim doctor" come across as if you are scum not wanting Town to mess with your head by fakeclaiming

Why would you see lacey's post as scum feeling this way. I don't see anyone so far who believe that fake claiming is good for the town.

Of course town agrees that fake claiming is bad, but the reasons for believing such are what I think is important. I may have been reading too much into it (maybe she just likes using math to support her ideas), and their was a conflict of playstyles, but my point was:
Fate:
1. Town should not fakeclaim because of counterclaims and mislynches and such in this setup.
Lacey:
2. Town should not fakeclaim because of probabilities of lynching another PR, etc. etc.

I've unvoted Lacey because I didn't believe it was a strong enough scumtell for a lynch.

On McGriddle:
You are very frustrating. I've seen you do this as town, (never seen you as scum yet), but you just give up. "I don't care just hammer me."

This defeatist attitude is either:
1. Null tell, he just likes to give up at L-1.
2. Scum tell, we got him
3. Town tell, but what's the point? He doesn't seem like he wants to scumhunt any longer.

[Fate]

There are simply too many conflicting strategies. Claims are, IMO, largely useless unless proof can somehow be attached. A cop who can be protected by a doctor is about the only useful claim, as he can try and prove himself during the night (provided no role-blockers are present). But that's not even an option in this setup. Any claim will probably be NK'ed or RB'ed in this setup, which makes claims even more useless, even ignoring the fact that scum can cop claim and give valid investigation results as they are in the informed minority.

I'm only interested in the following evidence:

1) Inconsistencies in voting patterns or evidence.
2) Unwillingness to answer queries.
3) Attempts to ignore inconvenient evidence
4) Scum hunting patterns and eagerness
5) Statistical analysis of the situation and its resulting effect on strategy

Why do you refuse to rule out all other evidence? Claims are FAR from worthless.

Here you go again Lacey. I don't think you understand the setup, since you referenced it this time. If the scum claim

COP

Either:

1. Nurse counterclaims (best situation) -> Scum lynched -> Nurse is NK'd
2. Cop counterclaims -> Scum lynched -> Cop RB'd/NK

I can't think of situation in which a scum can claim, and

NOT

trade their life 1-1. Sure they can lie and we can mislynch, but then we KNOW they are scum.

I just don't understand the type of player that uses numbers and percentages when common sense is sitting right here, showing us the way. If you took the data from all the games ever played on MS, I doubt it would be 70% town lynch rate. It would probably be higher. Do you propose we just select a name off the list and hope we hit scum 30% of the time?

Mafia is a lot like poker. Chance is a big factor, but you can't rely on it. People that read players are the ones that will consistently do well over the lucky ones (got a cop guilty inspect, etc.)

[Fate]

EBWOP: Should read "Why do you refuse to accept any other evidence?"

[Fate]

You're leaving yourself open to scum plays by adapting this strategy, such as a scum counterclaim on a real claim which leaves you with more dead townspeople, and a possible trusted scum. With VT's fakeclaiming as McGriddle said he might in some games, it gets even worse.

I'll agree with second part of your post. To each their own with scumhunting.

But the quoted, again, IS WRONG. Scum counterclaim's a real claim? THEN WHEN THE REAL CLAIM FLIPS WE KNOW WHO LIED AND IS SCUM. It is STILL 1-1. How would a scum counterclaiming a townie EVER result in a trusted scum, unless (once again) the townie FAKECLAIMED.

Arghhh. And if you need a disclaimer, I'm talking about non-lylo situations, like, ya know, toDay.

[Fate]

sorry if i have no idea what the hell going. and no one right now because it only day 3 or 4 too soon to tell. and u guy go way to fast to keep up with anything i have more of a life then this game. but of right now lacey is still on my radar.....

I have no idea how to read this player. Consistently playing the "uhh I'm confused town." Newb tell for both scum/town...

@Lacey:
Let's just agree to disagree. A game just ended in which we would've won by policy lynching, aka "the right play" math wise. However I voted the scummiest player, who was legitimately scummy all things considered, and we lost because he was town.

I trust math. I do not trust players. I can not even trust my own reads of players all that well. If a scum counterclaims a PR in this setup than we lynch the town PR, but the backup gets it so the scum still do have to deal with interference, FYI. And then, again, we lynch the outed scum the next day.

[Fate]

Lacey PLEASE, for the last time: I'm talking about today, NOT tomorrow.

Tomorrow? You'll bet my ass I'm not just going to blindly follow a claimed cop at LyLo, and I'll re-read the game and such, and make a decision from there.

Today? Scum claims/counterclaims is suicide.

[Fate]

I agree:

We need more posts from:

Ness.
McG.
McZombie (obv)
Chau.

I'm sure farside will be here to check in eventually.

[Fate]

Whoa whoa whoa there town. Where'd all this content come from?

First thing's first. Lacey, you are the one being obtuse. If cop holds back counterclaiming and waits until tomorrow when we are likely at LyLo (even more so because we aren't lynching the liar D1) then we are at LYNCH OR LOSE.

You

are the one leaving yourself open to scum. You are paving the way for them to fakeclaim, and not be countered. At LyLo, I'm much more likely to believe the first cop that claimed and went uncountered then someone new popping up and claiming Cop. You seem to be afraid to "out the cop" just because of the Roleblocker. The cop, by definition, must out themselves to catch scum! If they are doing it by way of counterclaiming that is even better.

I don't understand why you're being so dense. If you can't see that lynching scum today is, and always should be, priority #1 and a fakeclaim almost guarantees scum, then I just don't know what.

You're claiming VT early without much provocation (do you really fear a McGriddle vote?) really sets off alarms though. Why did you just help scum narrow down their NK list?

On McGriddle:
In an on going game, we just lynched scum that said the

exact same thing as you

: I don't want to vote someone because I will then be voted by someone else for OMGUS.

No. If you are voting Lacey, and you have legitimate reasons, then why would I call it OMGUS? You sound so much like the scum in the other game it is scary. You are afraid to do things that will draw suspicion toward yourself MORE than you care about finding scum.

This is a genuine scumtell. McGriddle, I'm putting you at L-1. I'm not putting a disclaimer that it is just a pressure vote either. I'm voting you with the intent to lynch you unless you adequately defend your actions.

Vote: McGriddle

I don't believe anyone should hammer yet. This is a frustrating game. McZombie's replacement isn't here, Ness is V/LA and refuses to post content, etc. Also I don't want Chau slipping under the radar while Lacey, Farside, and I do most of the posting.

We have a good lynch candidate, now we just need everyone in the game to come in and tell us their thoughts on the situation so we can get reads after a flip.

[Fate]

I don't think anyone would be foolish enough to quickhammer at this point. I'm fine with my vote where it is at the moment, because I'm not afraid of what people will think of my vote like scum is. If I think I've found scum, that is where my vote goes. Unless it is the hammer, in which case I'm more than willing for the rest of town to chime in on the lynch before I throw it down.

[Fate]

Welcome Jazzmyn! We need you!

therefor I would rather not get voted for a stupid OMGUS reason even if I have a good reason to vote that person. And I CALLED it dead on that you would vote me if I voted Lacey. So the genuine scum tell is when I fear being lynched, and because another player from a different game didn't want to get lynched? That's bullshit. Nobody wants to get lynched, scum or town.

You called it? Yeah you're right, you called it that if you acted scummy I would vote you. Huh. But I

wouldn't

of voted you if you had just voted Lacey in the first place, instead of saying "I want to vote her but won't because then Fate will vote me for OMGUS." Ironic, isn't it?

The genuine scum tell is you care about being lynched more than you care about finding scum. I often use the strategy as town to get a bandwagon on myself so I can better sort out the scum/townies on/off m wagon. It is useful for scumhunting. It is useful for providing a defense of yourself to get people off your lynch eventually.

But you haven't done any of that. You've alternated between "I don't care" and flailing scum. I'm not letting you off the hook.

[Fate]

hmmm so go ahead and vote for me farside22. I take it in great honnor. And yes i know how things go in these games. But maybe just maybe i'm waiting for the right moment to say somthing. I don't like to jump into things like all of u. so i will sit here and wait till the moment is right to say something and i'm i get killed for that then be it. i will play my way and u will play your way. that is all i have to say for right now. i will be back tm at some point to see what u all think.

You take it as an honor to act scummy and warrant a vote?

What is this I don't even...? You're waiting for the right time to see what? Tommorow? I think today you have seen what we all think. A lot of think McG is scummy. McG thinks Lacey is scummy. Farside thinks you are hiding behind the newb defense, as do I. Chau and Jazzmyn think, well they haven't posted much.

@Lacey: I don't think we're lucky enough for both McG and Ness to be scum. Maybe that's just gamblers fallacy, or pessimistic thinking. I also don't like how Chau hasn't posted in awhile, makes me think town is just making fools of themselves.

Waiting for Jazzmyn's thoughts

[Fate]

Post. Should be back on in 2 days or so at the latest

[Fate]

Oh now we better be careful, as opposed to D1 when you quickhammered, knowing it would make you look bad, and before we even had major posts from all the players (Chau and Jazzmyn come to mind.)

Obligatory

FoS:

Ness.

If you really thought Lacey was scum why the hell did you hammer McGriddle who she was voting!?

[Fate]

Ok here's what I want to ask you.

so u can lynch me faster i am now helping u out
and yes she/he does look scummy by what she/he has post and i sorry i forgot if your a guy or a girl right now...... i hope that helps u all out.......

You clearly said when you hammered both that: 1. You thought McGriddle was indeed scummy, and 2. You deliberately acted scummy knowing it would "help us lynch you faster."

Your recent post is a complete 180 from that. I don't know what the hell kind of gambit is this: "Act so scummy it hurts then beg for forgiveness at LyLo." If you really are town, you honestly though you were going to die at night?
But I think you're scum, at least, you should be. If you're pulling this crap as town then you really are ruining the game. If you're doing it as scum there is no way in hell I'll just let you have a "Free pass" because you apologized sincerely.

I just realized there wasn't a question in my post... hmm. Why did you think you were going to die? If you thought Lacey came off as scum, why did you vote McGriddle? You haven't made it clear what motivation town would have to think someone is scummy, and then vote for someone because "it seemed like we were going to do it anyway." Please explain yourself again.

[Fate]

Wow. Thats... wow.
There is a great guide for beginners on the Wikipedia site. There is a also a

very good suggestion

that you play in only newbie games until you learn the ropes.

Have you considered replacing out of this game if it is too far over your head?
Please do us a favor and replace out. Being cross-examined, being lied to, being manipulated, these things are part of the game. I don't know your circumstances or how you were introduced to mafia, but I'm afraid you might not be suited for it.

I don't know how to go forward with this game right now.

[Fate]

It's LyLo. Claiming would be best the route, imo. Like you said scum have only a 50% shot of being right, no way they'd take that risk if they had to claim first. This way we'll end up with either or own 50% shot (counterclaim situation) or a 66% shot (2 PRs, 3 Townie claims) at hitting scum.

[Fate]

@Chau: I apologize for thinking you were active lurking when you did post a V/LA. I usually look for those in sigs because I rarely re-read games, (I know it is a bad habit) which leads me to:
@Jazz: You're right I must have seen a votecount where Chau was voting McG, and completely forgot when she had voted me during the Lacey/Me exchange.
Also, any reasons you do a Post by Post for only some of the players and not Farside, Chau, or myself?

Or is the "more to follow soon" exactly that? So far I like your analysis though. What do you think of massclaiming today?

[Fate]

...I think she just claimed scum. Which has made this my most unpleasant game. Even if she is replaced now the replacement will have to have that on his/her shoulders. It just isn't something we can ignore.

Only thing I can think of is to just lynch her and hope she doesn't out her partner before she dies (which would completely ruin the game for your team. Please just stop posting)

@Jazz: Hypoclaiming? Isn't that where we all hypothetically say "I protected X last night/will protect X" as docs? I thought it was more of a strategy for Weak Doctors. Please explain to me how he would hypoclaim in this situation, i.e. "I hypothetically might be the nurse" err... What?

[Fate]

Well either you're town and I'm going to be quick hammered or you're scum.

Either way thanks for making this game remind me of why I don't miss high school.

Vote: Ness

[Fate]

That was disappointing, as Chau said. Especially since it was the first time I was scum on this alt... I was looking forward to trying to outwit Farside.

If I were town I would have called for a modkill (personal attacks, claiming scum, etc.), but she was just too easy to mislynch. It was sad really.

[Fate]

Well at least we had you pegged as the PR.

Good job on the quickhammer Chau, I wasn't sure you were on. I thought Farside would connect the dots and unvote quickly, but at that point I had no choice but to countervote.