Open 300 - Mafia on Midol (Town Wins!)
-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
Holy shit you guys are fast. I skimmed, then smoked, then refreshed and there arefoursix new posts. Woot!
Ima go read for real. Somebody who's paying attention tell me who the wagons are on?
I am miffed that nobody even acknowledged my call for a Scumstorm alliance. I thought you people were my friends.
Llama is town, BTW. Probably Plum too but a little time will tell me for sure. Back with more in a bit...-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
That's what L-4 looks like. Anyway...
By the numbers, Chk is the scummiest by far but I feel what Llama's saying about page 4. DH, Sudo, and Crazy are on the list too, in that order. Sharp town.
Zorb, CES, and NS are worth mentioning but meh. Plum too, which is odd, because a skim had me calling her prob town.
Bob, PZ, Fate, and Llama are town.
These are my personal views. FYI, the wife and I don't see much of each other on certain days of the week. We've agreed to chat about the game at least once a day, and that we will focus on playing by consensus more as the game goes on.-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
@DH:I didn't ask you what "we could probably just conclude," I asked what made you assume that? I don't think that's why PZ voted you.
@Fate:How the hell is Zorb obv-town. I swear, he keeps most of that post on a clipboard.
@Sudo:We considered the name Obi-Tu, but went for the van reference instead. We're thinking about playing this hydra as three-headed in the future: us and a variable hitchhiker.-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
Remind me not to wagon people who are going to dothat.Thatwas annoying.
DH did drop some towntells in there. Nothing as compelling as Crazy is claiming. I don't think he was thinking clearly so making a "dick move" may be something he didn't think about in his desperation to keep the slot alive. This was interesting...
Zorb has made two posts. His first one, which DH "didn't like," and his second one, which was thirteen minutes later and consisted entirely of telling DH to go stuff himself. Then... nothing. So I guess DH finds not posting to be a towntell? Remember this if DH flips scum at some point, because Zorb looks bad in that case.DH wrote:Troll slightly, because of his first post, but has recently been okay.
UNVOTE: DH
VOTE: Sudo_Nym
@Sudo:Still comfortable with your RV, huh? You've done three things in this game: (1) lulz Cthulu (2) defend self (3) sling mud at the lead wagon candidate. Is this how you normally play as town?
@NS:Please keep your vote in play. How many times am I going to have to say this to people?
It was a rhetorical question.Fate wrote:I'm not explaining my townreads, Ythill style.-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
If only one of our heads lurk, will y'all lynch half of us?
Hrm... Thor makes my eyes glaze over. Gut says town but whatever. As much as I agree with Sudo being in the hotseat, failing to place the L-1 vote is hardly valid as a scumtell, and aggressively pursuing that stance could lean to looser claims. Also, I don't like boiling DH down to the subject of the TARP!, because it isn't that simple.
A lot of what remains on this page is people calling Fate a bully. Yeah. We all know Fate can be abrasive. Unless any more of you have thin enough skins to rage-quit over it, we can probably save the intervention for Forum 62. I have seen enough e-peens today.
This Sudo wagon seems to have run its course. Any more takers?
Mod: can we get a VC pretty please?-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
@Thor:I didn't think that was the entirety of your points against Sudo. Rather, it was one of two places that I didn't like your stances. I already stated my problems with Sudo.
AGar seems oddly focused right now. Maybe he just feels weird because he hasn't recognized me? Keeping my eye on him fer sure.
Xine left some notes, including points against Llama and AGar and a cite demonstrating that Sudo and Thor are not scum together. I think it's even more clear that DH and Thor are not scum together, but I'm not really that interested in links before we have info. Xine also noted Fate's #214 as a scumslip, which is lulzy; she's never played with him, obv.-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
-
-
Punkin
-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
Actually, you know what?
UNVOTE: Crazy
VOTE: chkflip
I was wondering myself whether I had good reasons to vote Crazy, other than he's got two votes on him and he's on my p5 list. So I looked at his iso and he hasn't been looking that bad lately. That first post is stillreallybothering me though...
@Crazy:Did you really think Plum was a dude or were you messing around?-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
I've seen scum make intentional gender/identity mistakes early in D1 before, as distancing from a buddy. And I'm assuming it's used as fake distancing as well. However, I can't imagine doing that while also admitting game experience with her. It doesn't make sense either way, which is why it bothers me.-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
Okay... spent some time cuddling with the game and discussing between heads. We've opted to figure activity levels into our analysis and are caught up through current.
Top three scum, in order are: Nacho, Sudo, and NS. Three players are tied for fourth: Zorb, Plum, and Chk.
Bob, AGar, PZ, SP, Fate and Llama are town somewhere between lean and obv. The rest are at null.
The activity level here is abysmal, and some thatareposting seem to think this game is about talking. It's about voting. Early vote movement = scum lynches.
UNVOTE: Chk
VOTE: Crazy
Mod: not to be a nag but could we please get at least one VC per day?-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
This is someone who assumes themselves to NOT be townCrazy wrote: - if Iwastown and thought DH was town, whatshouldI have done in that scenario?
I stand by our vote
(though the original reason for the vote is in my "other head" right now)
BTW: Troll, Sudo, !!!!
we pre-inned together to play together, remember??? C'mon guys-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
The short answer: in the early game, I use my vote for info gathering. I'm not going to explain in detail ATM because that would kinda defeat the purpose but, if the scumz let us live through D3, you will see the fruits of my behavior. You are not on our scumlist but you are far from obv-town. If you'd like me to list the points against you, I can, but I'd prefer to just play fast and loose for now.Crazy wrote:Punkin, if I'm not in your top 6 scum reads, then why did you just vote for me?
You should get on it for a little while anyway. As should PZ. You know the method to my madness, Fate. The more likley you are to be culled early, the more helpful it is for you to sheep us.Fate wrote:This Crazy wagon is built on sand and full of horsecrap.
Do not like
FTR, we'd be fine switching our vote to NS if he had enough votes to be a viable alternative.-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
I came in here to post a note about us being busy over the next 48 hours but I see some things that need comment, so...
This view is very dissonant, considering AGar's meta habits for D1 voting. Revoking some of his towncred.AGar wrote:Your vote on Sudo is what sticks out most - you didn't want to waste your vote, so you just threw it around at who looked scummy at a glance... what? If you didn't want to waste your vote, why didn't you take the time to give things more than a glance?
Thor wrote:I'm not getting behind either of those terrible things. I'd rather lynch Socio or policy lynch Zorblag or Nikanor than hop on them.
And Zorb/Nik wouldn't be? Giving you a scumpoint for selective arguments. Now, please vote NS.Thor wrote:NS is now a lurker wagon
The motivation for the post was simply that he unvoted rather than placing it elsewhere, which is antitown but common enough that I don't log scumpoints for it. To answer the broader question, I thought Chk's RV should have expired by the time he posted #36 and, when it finally did in #72, it was a throwaway. Both of which are scummy.Plum wrote:What was your opinion of Chk and his vote-related behavior at the time of this post, Punkin (Ythiiiiiill!).
I explained in part (which you quoted). Also, DH had an actual wagon and was a much better place for my vote to gather info.Plum wrote:So why not vote Chk?
You seemed to understand that DH was claiming TARP! but you joined the wagon anyway, thereby buddying to the stronger of the two players. Don't think that I've forgotten what your scumplay is like, dear. Since then, you've also gotten points for lurking.Plum wrote:Also, I'm curious as to why I was worth a mention as slightly off/scummish looking at the time.
So yeah... anyway... we probably will not post much over the next 48 hours. Not V/LA but busy. I'm assuming Sudo and SP will be similar since they are supposed to be coming to our house tonight for tabletop gaming.-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
Was there something in it that should have inspired us to comment?Fate wrote:Ythill has nothing to say about NS's latest post?
I have no interest in Sudo posting defenses.Thor wrote:Now kindly vote Sudo so he actually admits there's a wagon on him and addresses it instead of trying to lurk out and hope a VI wagon happens to remove the pressure.
"If I determine the enemy's disposition of force while I have no perceptible form, I can concentrate my forces while the enemy is fragmented... Thus the pinnacle of military deployment approaches the formless. If it is formless, then even the deepest spy cannot discern it or the wise make plans against it." ~Sun Tsu,Nacho wrote:"Here are my first 6 choices for scum! Vote: Random Guy"
What were you thinking?The Art of War
If you wanna call two votes a wagon. Stop leaning and jump aboard. Sudo's still on the radar and we can always switch back to him later.Thor wrote:^
I will point out that applies equally for Sudo, amirite?
This should be sigged by anyone who ICs.chk wrote:more concise and well thought posts
Didn't notice anything during my absence that substantially changed reads. Will catch up our notes in a page or three and let you know of any swings.-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
-
-
Punkin
-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
Pretty sure he was talking about Chk, not Sudo.AGar wrote:I get SP's logic, strangely. But it's bad in this case.
Assuming he means that Sudo is going to lead us to others. Disagree.
Voting dynamics suggest that Sudo is town, NS is scum, and there is 1-2 scum among Chk/Llama/AGar/Oman/CES. I need to look something up which will help me narrow this down.
Mod: VC pretty please?-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
Thanks, singer.<3
UNVOTE: Sudo
VOTE: Nobody Special
It's like tennis.
I can follow the votes on my own, and have been. However, if I live through a couple of days, I will be using a mod iso to track voting dynamics. Therefore I wanted a snapshot of Sudo's L-2 wagon before moving elsewhere.bob wrote:Really? You can't follow a simple string of Sudo votes on your own?
Nacho-Sudo dilemma broke up and the votes stayed spread out until the NS wagon started getting big. It became clear from dialogue that Sudo is the natural alternative to NS. When I saw Chk (who was not on the original Sudo wagon) jump on, I switched my vote to increase the momentum. Also my inspiration for asking SP (who has stated Sudo-town, Chk-scum) if he saw what I did. Anyway, two more new Sudo voters got caught up in the momentum shift.bob wrote:Your voting dynamics list is intriguing... could you go into the reasoning behind it at all?
Of course this is all speculation without cardflips to back it up. FTR, I am not weighting this as a VCA conclusion but, rather, as simple tells.Last edited by singersigner on Thu Apr 14, 2011 12:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
-
-
Punkin Goon
-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
So... we have six days until deadline. Time to stop wagoning for info and work on the lynch. I'm going to catch my notes up today, then Xine and I will confer. Should have results when I get home from work tonight, maybe earlier if she feels like posting them.
The notes Xine left me last night go both ways on Plum and give Chk scumpoints.-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
CES:Considering Sudo's shtick, you just proved yourself to be Canadian.
I've finished catching up and tallying. There have been some changes. Current reads include everything Xine has noted but, like I said, I still intend to discuss things with her since 80% of the work so far has been mine. Anyway...
Scum (in order): chk, Sudo, NS, Nacho, Zorb-slot
Town: Cyber, AGar, PZ, SP, Thor Fate, CES, Llama
By the numbers, Sudo and NS are actually tied for second place. However, this is entirely due to the fact that we weighted lurking into our numbers and NS got more points than Sudo for lack of posting. Hence me listing Sudo higher than NS on the list. Also note that I seriously doubt that they are scum together. As usual for me in the early game, rankings are based on individual behavior with no consideration for the team as a whole.
Nacho has been improving his slot with every post he makes. So... either the slot is town brought down by DH's poor play or the slot is scum mitigated in the reads by Nacho's good play. Due to this, I'm less willing to lynch Nacho today than I normally would be for someone who is a solid fourth on the suspect list. I do intend to keep my eyes on him though.
UNVOTE: NS
VOTE: chkflip for now.-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
At the time, Sudo was (and still is) second on our suspect list. Moreover, I already explained the reason for the vote in #418. The comment to Thor was cheekiness.Ran wrote:388: Why did you let Thor get his way then? Why not fight it? You know, give your own reads instead of follow Thor.
She's never been scum. If you're referencing f2f mafia, there are some factors you are overlooking.SP wrote:This is worrisome, as she tends to be more passive as scum.
Patience, padawan. Making a WoT catch up post is something I've seen scum do many times. I did give him townpoints for something in it, but I didn't bother reading the the whole PbPA and his question to me, at least, shows that he is not reading as deeply as he'd like it to seem. Meanwhile #447 seems like:Fate wrote:TOLD YOU TROLL WAS TOWN.OMG I said I was on page nine, they're gonna catch me. Most telling of all is Zorb's activity level. SP and Sudo can back me up on how many times we've heard Zorb, himself, state that he only lurks as scum.
Then again, there are better candidates.
Like chkflip. Those of you who would like to hang scum, especially those on my town list, should check out his iso.
By the numbers, chk is far scummier than SudoorNS. Interesting, because the way we weighted the numbers for lurking gave NS maximum scumpoints, Sudo moderate scumpoints, and chkmaximum town points; meaning that, by behavior alone, chk is even worse in comparison. We can talk about the specifics of those tells when I have a little more time (tonight or tomorrow).-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
Hello, this head has been busy, I am now re-affirming my commitment to participate more in the thread.
I like our vote on Chk, he has been over defensive, and overcompensating , and has also twisted people's words so as to mis-rep them.
on to other stuff, SP, you got major scum points for this. claiming to have a scum meta on me, when no such thing exists=LIE!
Plum, I love that you said
this tells me you have done some meta research, and you got a town point for thatPlum wrote:Xine sounds just like herself.
Speaking of meta, I've been meaning for a while to ask Agar, if you don't do meta, what's up with defending PZ based on meta? and yes, I read your disclaimer that it's not "meta" just a familiarity with his play style.... (aka meta!)
Oman...<3 @ U 2. We haven't yet had time to properly discuss the benefit of going with a Sudo vote , based on wagon size, (does size really matter?) But I am willing to consider it, he is high in scum points. he is nowhere near as scummy as Chk though, take a good look at him for me would you, I'd love to know your opinion on Chk-scum.
CES: I know it's not your habit to go into detail over your votes ect, but I have seen enough of your play to have realized that you are more often then not pretty spot on, If I ask you nice, would you give a bit of content on your thought process, pretty please...-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
It seems like there's not a lot of interest in chk. Don't know that I should clutter the thread with arguments seeing as how the two alternatives are both acceptable to us. I'll just say that what Xine cited were 3 of the 19 points we've noted against him. Nothing damning in itself but certainly suggestive as a group.
UNVOTE: chk
VOTE: Nobody Special
I think it was a serious answer. If you're not familiar with CES, go look at his meta. The more concerning aspect of his #481 was him buddying up to me.Crazy wrote:
That was a serious question. If you're just wagoning for the fun of it, then why the heck do you back that up with a "Why is DH not dead yet?"CES wrote:Because that's how I roll.
^^I'd like other opinions on this, plz.
@Llama:#493 relies too much on the "scum lurk, town doesn't" assumption. There are more than four players lurking, so the logic is obv-fail. Did you give your opinion about AGar's argument that "doing nothing" (which is most of what Sudo has done wrong) fails to further a scum wincon?-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
Hey Lurkers! deadline is approaching, time to get in here and give some input.
I am realizing that the 3 lead candidates for lynch are, Sudo, who popped in to promise content, and we are still waiting for it..., NS, who was done with his "v/la" last night, and Chk, who has not posted since the 14th. hmmm...
Agar, I see your point about the distinction on "meta" uses. thanks for clarifying.
this is a perfect example of Agar's point about poorly used meta tells, methinksRanmaru wrote:@Agar: So? I hydrad with my friend Kuzi and I thought he coasted as scum. Turned out, he coasted regardless of alignment. That cost me a townie death. (I shot him)
Nacho: Do you still stand behind your read on Chk?-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
Hito+sotty? Hellzya! Interested in your opinion of chk.
This slot is going to be pretty light over the next couple of days. For those of you who do not know me personally: our good friend/love Dan! will be arriving tonight and we haven't seen her in almost two years. I'll check in occasionally but will not be doing any heavy work in this thread, same for our other head.
We're fine with Sudo being pushed to claim. Willing to hang back with the hammer to facilitate that.-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
VCA incoming. As usual except Xine and I sat down to do the analysis together. Posting raw, will sum up conclusions eventually.
Scum are spread out here. No more than one among PZ/Crazy/Plum. Same with Llama/Cyber and CES/TS. At least one, maybe two among AGar/Oman/Thor/Chk.Mod iso #5 wrote:AGar (1): Zorblag
DemonHybrid(4): Papa Zito, Crazy,Fate, Plum
Papa Zito (1):DemonHybrid
Sudo_Nym(2): LlamaFluff, Cyberbob
Plum (1):Nobody Special
chkflip (1): SocioPath
Crazy (2): Cogito Ergo Sum, Nikanor
Not voting (6):Punkin, AGar, Oman,Sudo_Nym, Thor665, chkflip
Town-town dilemma with only the four lurkers not involved. Lack of interest in the situation on us corroborates scum involvement in the dilemma. No more than one scum among Ran/TS/AGar/Oman; maybe none. At least one (probably two) among PZ/Plum/CES/SP/Chk. At least one among Llama/Cyber/Crazy/Thor. Crazy gets townpoints for the timing of his jump off DH.Mod iso #6 wrote:Punkin(1):Sudo_Nym
AGar (1): Zorblag
DemonHybrid(7): Papa Zito,Fate, Plum,Punkin, Cogito Ergo Sum, SocioPath, chkflip
SocioPath (1):DemonHybrid
Sudo_Nym(4): LlamaFluff, Cyberbob, Crazy, Thor665
Plum (1):Nobody Special
Crazy (1): Nikanor
Not voting (2): AGar, Oman
Very interesting VC. Nacho's replacement means the slot is no longer an easy mislynch. As the wagon fell apart, both CES and chk placed late votes on competitors. At least one is scum, decent chance of both. Townie brownies for Zito who moved to scum. Townpoints for Crazy, as voters seemed ambivalent between he and Sudo. AGar and Oman popped out of the Not Voting list to put Crazy ahead of NS, scumpoints for both.Mod iso#12 wrote:Punkin(1):Nobody Special
AGar (1): Zorblag
Nachomamma8(4): Plum, SocioPath, chkflip,Sudo_Nym
Sudo_Nym(5): LlamaFluff, Cyberbob, Thor665,Fate, Cogito Ergo Sum
chkflip (1):Nachomamma8
Crazy (5): Nikanor, AGar, Oman,Punkin, chkflip
Nobody Special(2): Crazy, Papa Zito
Not voting (0):
Second time Crazy has unvoted during the buildup of a wagon. To quote our conversation...
Ythill: Is this more evidence of town motivation or a pattern of not wanting to be involved in lynch wagons?
Xine: Well... it's definitely not nothing.
We should entitle this oneMod iso #15 wrote:AGar (2): Zorblag, LlamaFluff
Nachomamma8(2): SocioPath,Sudo_Nym
Sudo_Nym(3): Cyberbob, Thor665, chkflip
chkflip (3):Nachomamma8, Plum,Nobody Special
Crazy (2): Nikanor, Oman
Nobody Special(6): Crazy, Papa Zito,Punkin,Fate, Cogito Ergo Sum, AGar
Not voting (0):Chkflip is Scum. Of the two obvscum above (CES + chk), he's the one who moved from the less-popular to the most-popular mislynch wagon as NS gained momentum. More important is NS' own vote, which moved from useless to a defensive wagoning position. Question is, why was it not placed on Sudo? The only reasonable answers are (1) it is distancing inspired by impending doom and therefore chk is scum or (2) there was already scum on the Sudo wagon. This all boils down to at least one scum among Cyber/Thor/chk with the latter being more likely.
Also, dissenter wagons are spread out versus NS, which tells me no more than two scum among Crazy/PZ/CES/AGar; maybe only one. This also tells us that there is no more than one scum each among Ran/Llama, same with TS/Oman, and Plum gains town cred.
This was my momentum-testing vote and it worked like a charm. Coming out of the split-dissenter situation, four people voted Sudo and parked until the end of the day. At least one scum (probably two) among Llama/AGar/Oman/CES. The least likely pairing is AGar/CES because they moved as a bloc, however, they are the most likley to contain scum. Decent chance that one busser stayed parked (one among Crazy/PZ/Plum).Mod iso #16 wrote:AGar (1): Zorblag
Nachomamma8(2): SocioPath,Sudo_Nym
Sudo_Nym(8): Cyberbob, Thor665, chkflip,Punkin, LlamaFluff, AGar, Oman, Cogito Ergo Sum
chkflip (2):Nachomamma8,Nobody Special
Crazy (1): Nikanor
Nobody Special(4): Crazy, Papa Zito,Fate, Plum
Not voting (0):
Not much to note here, except as a point of comparison for the next two VCs. Ran pointlessly added pressure to the Nacho wagon which could go either way at this juncture, but see below.Mod iso #20 wrote:Nachomamma8(3): SocioPath,Sudo_Nym, Ranmaru
Sudo_Nym(7): Cyberbob, Thor665, chkflip, LlamaFluff, AGar, Oman, Cogito Ergo Sum
chkflip (2):Nobody Special,Punkin
Nikanor (1):Nachomamma8
Crazy (1): Nikanor
Nobody Special(4): Crazy, Papa Zito,Fate, Plum
Not voting (0):
We added pressure to the NS wagon and there was very little movement in response. Tells me scum was already entrenched on Sudo (see below). Ran looks like Goldilocks trying to find the right bed; scumpoints.Mod iso #21 wrote:Nachomamma8(2): SocioPath,Sudo_Nym
Sudo_Nym(7): Cyberbob, Thor665, chkflip, LlamaFluff, AGar, Oman, Cogito Ergo Sum
chkflip (1):Nobody Special
Cogito Ergo Sum (1): Ranmaru
Twilight Sparkle (1):Nachomamma8
Crazy (1): Twighlight Sparkle
Nobody Special(5): Crazy, Papa Zito,Fate, Plum,Punkin
Not voting (0):
Town was sealed into this and pulling it off was almost a technicality for scum. Our slot was willing to hammer and so was Fate, which means decent chance of one scum among Ran/SP with the former more likely than the latter. Also note that Sudo was "just right" for Ranilocks.Mod iso #24 wrote:Nachomamma8(1):Sudo_Nym
Sudo_Nym(10): Cyberbob, Thor665, chkflip, LlamaFluff, AGar, Oman, Cogito Ergo Sum, Ranmaru, SocioPath,Fate
chkflip (1):Nobody Special
Twilight Sparkle (1):Nachomamma8
Crazy (1): Twighlight Sparkle
Nobody Special(4): Crazy, Papa Zito, Plum,Punkin
Not voting (0):
One of these things is not like the other, one of these things does not belong... Llama's vote is not suspicious in itself but look at the next count.Mod iso #27 wrote:SocioPath (1): LlamaFluff
Nobody Special(5): Cogito Ergo Sum, SocioPath, Papa Zito, Twilight Sparkle,Punkin
Not voting (18):Punkin, Cyberbob, AGar,Nachomamma8, Oman, Papa Zito, SocioPath, Ranmaru, Thor665, Plum, chkflip, Cogito Ergo Sum, Llamafluff, Twilight Sparkle, Crazy,Nobody Special
Scum either planned to bus NS in their QT or came in here hoping for the best. If its the former, there's one or two on the wagon already. If it's the latter, there are at least two lurking.
Rebellious Llama saw the light @ L-2. Scumpoints + suggests that they were hoping for the best (see above). Later votes (AGar/Cyber/Llama) gain scumpoints for milking the bus for a second advantage: the quick day.Mod iso #28 wrote:Papa Zito (1): Thor665
SocioPath (2): chkflip,Nobody Special
Nobody Special(8): Cogito Ergo Sum, SocioPath, Papa Zito, Twilight Sparkle,Punkin, AGar, Cyberbob, LlamaFluff
Not voting (5):Nachomamma8, Oman, Ranmaru, Plum, Crazy
At least one scum among dissenters Thor/chk, more likely chk because his vote was on another contender rather than thrown away. Townie brownies for SP.
Self-hammer usually indicates heavy scum involvement because otherwise, why not let a buddy get cred? However, this is an interesting case because it isMod iso #28 wrote:Papa Zito (1): Thor665
SocioPath (1): chkflip
Nobody Special(9): Cogito Ergo Sum, SocioPath, Papa Zito, Twilight Sparkle,Punkin, AGar, Cyberbob, LlamaFluff,Nobody Special
Not voting (5):Nachomamma8, Oman, Ranmaru, Plum, Crazythe third timeI have done VCA wherein NS self-hammered as scum (FFS). First time, I was absolutely right and there were lots of scum on. Second time he tried to WIFOM me, hammering with nobody bussing, and I caught him by expecting his ploy. This time? Xine thinks sparse (1-2) scum on; I think we're back to natural, so 2 buddies on. THis boils down to: no more than 2 among Thor/chk/Oman/Ran/Plum/Crazy; no more than two among CES/SP/PZ/TS/AGar/Cyber/Llama.-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
Haven't had much time for this game because [redacted] is in endgame. Sorry neither of us have gotten to that NS reread yet.
I went through the VCA conclusions. Based solely on that analysis, Chk is scummiest, CES is second, AGar and Llama are tied for third. Weighting these reads into our previous views gives us the following lists:
Scum (in order): chk, Ran, Oman, TS.
Null: AGar, CES, Crazy.
Town: Cyber, PZ, SP, Thor, Llama.
Of course we still have some work to do so don't get too attached. I haven't even reread D2 yet, FFS.-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
-
-
Punkin Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 115
- Joined: April 2, 2011
- Location: Rollin' around.
-
-