Open 446: C9++ (Avast! Viruses!) - GAME OVER

[solidstate]

VOTE: Rainbowdash

I don't like these horsies teaming up.

[solidstate]

Elmo TeH AzN is guaranteed scum. You should join.

I might if he doesn't post.

On the other hand, a 4 wagon already with literally nothing to build a case on? That smells a little fishy.

[solidstate]

On the other hand, a 4 wagon already with literally nothing to build a case on? That smells a little fishy.

That's sort of the point. What, specifically, do you feel is fishy about the wagon? Anyone jump to mind?

The point is to play badly and possibly lose a townie for nothing? I'm not following. I assume your answer will be 'lol reaction test bro' or something like that, but it still doesn't seem great to me.

On a different note, Prolapsed Brain should stop mispelling names in fake votes. It reeks of posting just to post and isn't adding content to the game.

[solidstate]

Well, if driving up a Day 1 bandwagon first thing is bad play, then I guess it's bad play. I do it because bandwagons are yummy delicious in general, and it's a good deal better than asking silly questions that don't really go anywhere to kick start a game past a state of zero information.

That said, you clearly don't like the wagon, so talk about it.

I have nothing against an early bandwagon. I have something against an early wagon + 'omg quicklynch gogogo' type comments on a person with no content to read at all.

Also, the argument has obsoleted itself since Elmo has started posting.

[solidstate]

Inte, your contributions are starting to look as useless as PB's mispelled votes.

yer out!

VOTE: DeathYoshi

cya

VOTE: Siveure DtTrikyp

Meaningless threats + rapid vote changing? You did ask some questions in between, but then you totally ignored the answers and just seem to vote at random.

[solidstate]

solidstate, you're pointing out a lot of things you're seeing wrong, but you aren't doing anything about them. Why is that?

A lot of other people are focusing more on bro-talk, bragging and threats, than legit scumhunting. Why shouldn't I point it out?

Beyond that, I have a couple scum reads but one isn't all that stronger than the other. I'll happily post my reads so my thought process is clear, though:

I dislike PB for his 'slide by' posting. I'm nervous of the horsies being so chummy (and Demon Core for jumping in with them). I think I already commented on Inte, his behavior is kind of random and overly aggressive.

I'm willing to leave Bitmap be as a present null; the vig posturing is probably more dangerous for himself than it is advantageous (makes him a target for both scum and a potential SK). Even if he was one of those roles, he'd still be baiting the other.

SD, Elmo, and Yoshi are pretty null-town to me, I can't see that there's much logic behind the votes on them so far but randomness and maybe a bit of OMGUS.

Mcstab has been away.

However, for the sake of actually being on a wagon since no one is on RBD with me, I'll
UNVOTE:
VOTE: inte

[solidstate]

Ok so with SDT unvoting before replacing, I'm right back to not being on a wagon.

It seems like most of the choices are various kinds of inactive:

Defender: has only posted twice but I mostly agree with the content (anti Elmo quicklynch)
Elmo: Bluff self-vote is a little anti town otherwise not much here.
PB: Inactive and seems like he's posting just to post with the misspelled votes.
SDT: Wasn't quite as inactive as any of the above (had an argument about scum vs anti town). But the replace is a bit ???
McStab: Actual VLA, but promised to post something today. An option if he doesn't post something worthwhile.

I'm leaning toward PB or SDT now.

[solidstate]

So defender and Yoshi have 3 now?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: D3f3nd3r

I'm not convinced yet on Yoshi, and I'm willing to lynch a lurker D1 if there isn't a stronger option.

[solidstate]

Its true that lurkers are 'easy' lynches. But that cuts both ways. Its better for scum to lynch a strong player than a weak one, since scum can't win on NKs alone and will have to play the day game eventually.

And Seil, D1 is precisely when you deal with lurkers as town, so you're not stuck with them in later days when the vote margins are narrower and more is on the line. Scum wants weak or indecisive players in the My/lylo.

All of that said, I'm not totally dismissing the idea of looking at Yoshi. I did get a little vibe off him when he singled me out as town (it felt a little too friendly and not suspicious enough for a real townie attitude), although that's more gut read than logic read since lots of people have town reads on different folks.

[solidstate]

Ok that's actually pretty persuasive on the whole.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: DoomYoshi

Which I think puts him at L-1, so triggerhappy people chill and give him a chance to post.

[solidstate]

Actually, instead of mcstab replying to me, solid state should replying his stead. If the points are so good, soldistate will be able to defend them. If not, I am switching votes. First ultimatum of the game.

I didn't say the points were 'so good.' I said I had a mild tingle of suspicion from your very strong pro-town read on me (I was one of the people not on your wagon at that point, so it comes off as a bit of defensive buddying) and that I was willing to accept the cases offered.

Making ultimatums just makes you look like a tool, anyway. If you want to switch your vote just switch your vote, but acting like I need to prove something to earn your approval is a bit silly. Despite that, I'm not going to lynch a claimed doctor D1, so back to where I was before!

UNVOTE:
VOTE: D3f3n3r

I'm not sure I trust ponypie, though.

[solidstate]

@Seil: Keep in mind Yoshi isn't confirmed town, and don't call him that. We have no evidence at all that he is town, and any scum at L-1 is going to make a PR claim in his situation. Its just that its safer for the town to lynch someone else. But if you die, the town will be well-advised to lynch him. If he is still alive in a couple days, the town will be well-advised to lynch him (because if he's really a doctor, the scum will have to kill him to get to you). Applejack alluded to this as well, I think. There's really no reason to treat him as any less scummy, he's just more or less lynchproof for the day.

@Yoshi: See how easy actually voting instead of threatening to vote is? Your reasons are still shit, though.

First, there are elements in mcstab's case that have nothing to do with A or B above. For instance, his commentary on 130, which wasn't in earlier cases. I've also mentioned my suspicion in terms of your buddy attitude toward me, which you refuse to address (being sure someone is town is scummy because only scum knows for sure).

As for wagon timing: For a long time I wasn't on a wagon, I was on RBD by myself due to the whole pony-vibe. But eventually, its productive to join a wagon. Its called contributing to moving the game along. Ba-ba-ba until you fall asleep for all I care, but if everyone just stubbornly sat around on their own votes, the game would go nowhere and eventually the NKs would kill us all. No one should feel pressured to avoid wagons they agree with; THAT is antitown for sure.

Otherwise, your attitude is also becoming even scummier. Threatening votes isn't real scum-hunting. Voting is scum-hunting. If you think someone is scum, you vote for them. Instead, you got mad and threatened me, and that approach just makes it look like really bitter OMGUS ('I called solidstate town and he voted for me? *rage*).

[solidstate]

Mcstab, while I agree his behavior is not good, I don't think we should lynch him today and I'm not going to move my vote back. Seil is extremely valuable to the town, and so keeping around a potential doctor is important. Also (and I think this is what Applejack was implying) having more claimed/known identities will make our hunting more accurate. Yoshi will be under suspicion as long as he lives (and more so the longer he lives, in fact) so locating another suspect is efficient.

[solidstate]

Cart, I'm going to echo DY here: Don't worry about playing wrong, and especially don't let anyone else in the game tell you how to play (which, amusingly, means you should disregard this post too! ). Aside from really math-heavy stuff, an interested player who pays the game close attention will do fine whether they're new or old. Gut reads can be really powerful, and logic can be manipulated (because scum are in the position of superior information).

[solidstate]

I consider myself a math-y person and its one of the main reasons I'm drawn to playing the game. However, I've never played this specific setup and the variety and degree of uncertainty in the possible setups definitely makes it much harder to analyze so I wouldn't claim that I'm going to be an expert on it.

Right now, we don't know enough to say much. We can say that the chance of a friendly masonry existing is quite low (since it would require exactly 3 Ms, no more or less), know that the 7T scum setup is impossible, etc.

[solidstate]

@Defender: Pretty strong play for your 5th post of the entire game, OMGUS/self defense with justification quoted entirely from another player.

@Inte: Even if you think he's a VI, are you not concerned that this BAD of a VI will cause us some harm down the road? Do you want to be in a LyLo with Defender as your partner?

[solidstate]

Even if there's a vig, we have other inactives/baddies, and you're assuming the vig agrees. But ok, you don't like the defender lynch.

Are you still on cartographer? Is there a basis to strongly believing he's scum? Other options?

[solidstate]

Rainbow, are you prepared to give anything remotely specific about me, possibly ask me to address concerns, etc... or are you just going to continue to post vague bullshit like 'that whole post is so scummy scum scummy scum scum scum scum'?

And to answer your last post for him, Defender's case on me was literally

quoting the text of your own vague post

. IE, he has literally no opinion of his own at all.

If you disliked my 'sheeping' so intensely, how can you possibly tolerate Defender's play without being a giant hypocrite?

[solidstate]

Well... no, I'm not sure why you do.

You declared my entire post the scummiest thing evar and declared that you have various undisclosed reasons for that reaction. I can make guesses, but beyond that, no, I have no idea why you're focused on me (especially above other players sheeping, skating by on 0-content posting, etc). If I somehow did something you believe is a secret massive omg guaranteed scumslip, you should probably share with the rest of the class so they can move on with lynching and the game, no?

And if you don't want to clarify it, that's your prerogative, but I think its generally considered appropriate to post a case in more detail than 'your post was scummmmmy!'

[solidstate]

Also, why was the early wagon on me over other wagons?

Is this at me or toward the thread in general, since several people were after you?

I stated openly that I was ok lynching one of the lurker slots. Yours happened to be one that gathered some momentum. And you can all go ahead and call that sheepy, and I'll answer the same way: If everyone hops on different targets and doesn't consider existing wagons at all, the game goes nowhere, especially on D1 with a large number of people.

Also, how is your self-defense not increasingly pushing you from merely being a lurker to being a lurkscum? Now that you're actually posting, all you do is vaguely mention post numbers. Or, in one case, you quoted another person's post, who in turn was vaguely mentioning post numbers. That's like... vague squared. How is anything you're posting more than self-serving survival efforts? Your wagon is a counter-wagon that you've offered 0 effort to promote, apparently hoping to let RBD do the work for you.

In the entire game, the sole reason you offered for your OWN existence (not my lack of existence), was this:

I admit I don't want to be around at LyLo.

If I was stuck with it, town would lose. Keep me alive now, feel free to Vig or kill me closer to LyLo.

Why are you still alive?

And why should anyone follow your wagon when you basically claim you're bad at the game and are just vigfodder?

[solidstate]

Yes, you claimed to be bad at Lylo.

You also didn't claim to be GOOD anywhere else.

You're clearly not paying attention to the game or invested in it at ANY level (since you posted nearly nothing until you were called out, and since then have posted 0-content quotes and post #s).

So... you're not good in general. You're bad at something specific. You don't really care.

And this is your DEFENSE. Begging 'please don't kill me, I suck too bad.' In what world is that reasonable?

Sucking

isn't a reason to keep someone alive. Vigs have better shit to do.

[solidstate]

???? vig's don't have anyone to answer to

we need the lynch to be in

town's

hands

I wasn't telling the vig what to do, I was saying that Defender's argument of 'don't lynch me, the vig can kill me' is ridiculous.

[solidstate]

You'd have voted me for clarifying something? Your post didn't have an @ Name, it was directly after mine and I thought you were directly responding to me.

[solidstate]

Since it might be useful: I think right now we have 2 each on Defender, me, and RBD. And then a bunch of people either voting on one person or not voting. I'd suggest that Elmo should get off Yoshi, and Yoshi should probably stop OMGUSing me.

I still think the Defender lynch is valid, since his play has gone beyond lurky to lurky, anti-town and arguably not even playing to win (with his comments of 'just lynch me D3' - as if the town might not have better things to do by then). But I'm willing to look at this RBD thing given my early on suspicion and what seems like the dangerous nature of the massclaim.

RBD, I'm trying to take it as a good-faith offer but I can't see how this strategy can be pro-town. I'd like her to offer some better justification and if not I might consider that lynch again like I did early on. When has it worked, in this exact setup? All you've said is you made predictions while dead, but that the town still lost. And someone else said you used it against the town as scum. So, when has it worked? How does it work?

Just looking at the basic premise, it seems like the goal is to force the scum to either claim VT or obviously invalidate their fakeclaims. And then after that you only lynch your VTs (since some of them will be fake). What I'm confused about is how this benefits the odds much. Assuming we got the TTT or TTTT outcome (the two most likely), knowing we got 1M at least already, this means 2 or 3 additional PRs max, and 9-11 in the 'lynchable' pool (with 3-4 scum). In the best scenario your lynch (or vig, jail, etc) accuracy is still worse than 50-50 (and as bad as 27% if you got 4xT + 2x C or V) while the scum go from very low PR odds to 100%. Isn't it very likely you'd lose the power roles faster than you'd find scum?

I haven't evaluated every other possible setup, but I don't even see how you could get breaking PR setups when the mafia has a roleblocker and you have a potential SK adding nightkills. You'd need multiple cops/doctors to even get off any investigates.

[solidstate]

Some further theory since why not (I told you I like math and theory), on the extremes of the scale:

If you actually managed to generate 3 docs + IC, (+potentially whatever), the massclaim might be justified since the docs could circle target and the scum would have to guess who was targeting who to roleblock and nk. Or get lucky doubling up with the SK if it was 5D + 1M + 1T. But hat's counting on something really statistically unlikely.

On the opposite side, if you actually had few enough power roles to prevent the roleblocker (5 or 6T, 7 being impossible)... you'd still be screwed. If its 6T, the only PR you have is the IC. who just dies like a bitch night 1. And if its 5T, you could get a 1 shot cop or a doc but they'd be nk'ed first followed by the IC the next night (they could both die night 1 if the SK and Mafia got lucky and didn't double up).

Anyone better versed feel free to jump in if I'm missing anything, but it looks really dubious to me.

[solidstate]

Anyway, solidstate's scum. Lynching him would be nice. I can go into why,

It would be nice if you did. You and RBD have both been doing a lot of 'I have reasons but I don't care to make them public'.

[solidstate]

Sorry, twc is out in my area so I'm on my phone only, I will read todays stuff and try to reply but I can't really blab on until it gets fixed.

[solidstate]

Ok, my net is working and I've read the stuff from the last few.

I think I'm still happy sitting. Defender hasn't posted anything to change my mind (or much of anything at all, still). As before, the reasoning is still stronger than just a PL; saying that you should not be lynched until a particular day is very suspicious and easily a trap for the town.

RBD: Why does a GF flip above everything else make a massclaim a good idea (vs other flips)? It narrows possible T results but not definitively. Understanding that you don't intend the massclaim until deeper in the game it seems less obviously suicidal, although I remain skeptical.

[solidstate]

I still really like Defender as a lynch, and his last post doesn't improve it (you don't need 5 nks, 3 is sufficient if 2 mafia survive to put the town at LyLo right when he wants us to mislynch him), but I can see that the general feeling/meta/whatever here is that its not a good lynch except as a last resort. Hopefully if we stall and hit the deadline, people will move back to him. I sure will.

UNVOTE:

I'm not entirely sure where to go from here, I have suspicion toward RBD as always but I also don't think she's a great lynch today. I'd rather see if she can actually develop some real logic to explain the massclaim idea on D2 if we get the right flips and she survives. Instant win is obviously great if we can actually do it, and I think there's enough experienced people to notice if she's just trying to sabotage us.

Gonna reread inte and bitmap.

[solidstate]

Hey, at least for the first time in the game someone voting for me actually wrote text I can respond to.

I have nothing against an early bandwagon. I have something against an early wagon + 'omg quicklynch gogogo' type comments on a person with no content to read at all.

Also, the argument has obsoleted itself since Elmo has started posting.

well this seems sort of strange. 'omg quicklynch gogogo' is okay as long as the person is posting...?

Whats strange? I disliked a wagon based on literally nothing. Is that weird? It became irrelevant because he started posting and people started playing for real (and his wagon promptly dissolved). I'm confused by what's strange or scummy about this. Do you think we should have lynched Elmo then and there? Do you think I was defending another scum? Oh wait, you can't possibly think that since its your slot.

This part of the post looks like you skimmed my ISO and then took a kitchen sink approach, tossing in something totally random just to add bulk to your case.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: D3f3n3r

I'm not sure I trust ponypie, though.

this post is fairly shitty mainly because when he initially hopped on the defender lynch and got called for going for low hanging fruit, he said that lurker lynches were the best to get out of the way on D1, but now he's voting defender again and meanwhile is saying that he doesn't trust rbd even though that shouldn't matter because he's just lynching someone who's hard to read.
bleh

You're misrepping

pretty hard

here. Or just totally missing the facts completely.

I didn't get called for going after Defender. No one likes Defender and his play is factually, painfully awful. I got called for going after DoomYoshi FROM Defender, based on McStab's case on Yoshi, putting Yoshi up to L-1 and prompting his doctor claim. After that very few wanted to continue after the claimed Doc (myself included), I went back to defender, who I had been on previously. I won't (and haven't) argued that going for Yoshi wasn't a bit sheepy/opportunistic, but it was hardly without justification.

As for saying I still didn't trust the pony thing, I've been consistent in that stance from the very beginning of the game. They act like they're in secret communication (RBD once posted telling us what Applejack was going to post), and both of them consistently refuse to give complete explanations. Its cagey. But I think they're more likely to produce some interesting content that will tell us what's going on in the game so I don't really think RBD is a good D1 lynch.

I still really like Defender as a lynch, and his last post doesn't improve it (you don't need 5 nks, 3 is sufficient if 2 mafia survive to put the town at LyLo right when he wants us to mislynch him), but I can see that the general feeling/meta/whatever here is that its not a good lynch except as a last resort. Hopefully if we stall and hit the deadline, people will move back to him. I sure will.

I don't like this at all, especially since he doesn't have anywhere else to go off to. He's basically saying that lynching Defender is too hard and so he is now doing... what, exactly?

Other people are allowed to lurk the entire thread but I can't take my vote off a wagon that's going nowhere (and that numerous people have said they won't ever join because they refuse to policy lynch) without immediately revoting? If you want to lynch me for not jumping on another vote immediately, that's about the most hypocritical bullshit ever, since your case is built on me... moving my vote too fast. It sounds like you're setting up a catch 22 such that I'm guilty no matter what my actions actually are.

The "right when he wants us to mislynch him" phrasing is also weird but I won't get into that, but... still.

How is it weird? Defender literally made the following argument: 'I'm a terrible lylo player but don't lynch me today, wait until Day 3'. He wants to be lynched on D3.

And day 3 could BE LyLo.

Do you understand my statement now?

[solidstate]

Oh, another reason I haven't gone for RBD:

Despite the ludicrousness of her whole 'I am so awesome, awesome awesome awesome' routine, people do seem to be giving her experience credit/following her. Between that and her massclaim thing, if she's not scum, I think she'll be someone scum will want to lynch, and so making them choose between priority targets seems beneficial.

[solidstate]

Ok, so now that I've had some not at work time to do a thorough read and get post links and all that... Oddly, I agree with this, even if I obviously disagree with everything else from Nacho:

i'm calling scum in {mcstab, bitmap, cartographer}, actually.
rbd is town and someone put suspicion on her, and I bet you scum couldn't resist fueling the paranoia somewhat.

I wouldn't go as far as to say 'RBD is town', but I've explained why I think RBD is a bad lynch today. She very well could be town, and if she's not I think we'll figure it out soon enough.

So I have raised suspicion on the people who are holding votes on her. Looking back at these posters:

Bitmap: Hard to read because his posts are short and there's a lot of goofing around, but he has a very good reason to be suspicious of RBD since he apparently knows her meta. While he seems to be easing back in his suspicion on RBD (in post 322), especially after her clarifactions about how the massclaim should be carried out (ie, not today), he's still voting her. I'm not clear on his position so that's a little iffy.

Cartographer: I like Cartographer's posting because it is clear and well-reasoned with plenty of evidence. Of any player in this game, I think he makes his thought process the most transparent. Granted scum can play that way to appear helpful (arguably its how I played scum my first newbie game), but I just have trouble finding it ungenuine. He's also spent a lot of time pressing Applejack and RBD to be more open, so I feel his vote on RBD is consistent with genuine pressure to get them talking and giving reasonings. In fact, he's made a point that his entire purpose in the game is to get people to post cases so they can be held to them (post 390). This is a great instinct, and his suspicion toward people who aren't doing it (RBD and Apple) seems pretty legit. So I'm willing to say his play is very pro-town right now.

McStab: In ISO, I realize there's not much content from him. McStab is who I followed into the Yoshi wagon. Maybe in hindsight the case he posted isn't as strong as I read it, but re-reading I don't think its awful and I don't think its evidence against him. DoomYoshi looked suspicious to a lot of people, he hasn't really improved since, and if he didn't have a doctor claim he'd definitely already be dead.

After RBD's massclaim suggestion, he puts his vote on her. However, if that's his entire case right now, I don't think the vote is warranted. RBD has explained that the massclaim isn't supposed to happen today, its supposed to happen D2 or D3 and only if we get the right flips. Pre-lynching her does not seem pro-town. He gives some justification in 298 but I don't think its credible. This game is not the same as the other game, and there's no indication anyone is so 'curious' about the massclaim that we'll just do it without further discussion. That feels like a misrep of the entire town to me.

So with all of that listed, I basically have the same logic for both Bitmap and McStab so its hard to distinguish between them. I'm going to pick somewhat on instinct, but also because Bitmap seems a little more flexible and due to that post from McStab: Hopefully Bitmap can either elaborate on the RBD situation or agree that we can leave her massclaim issues until D2+.

VOTE: Mcstab

[solidstate]

@Azusa: I'm comfortable to the extent one can be comfortable in Mafia with limited knowledge. There are a few reasons.

For me personally, regardless of RBD's early vote, that quoted bit I have of Nacho's pushed my thinking down this line. His input lends credibility to it for me (I think if he was scum with her, it would be too obvious of an associative link to attack her attackers so blatantly).

I don't feel like we're being led by the nose by RBD. This is due to Nachos indirect involvement, and the fact that the wagon seems like it could have formed against Bitmap just as easily. The early wagon is diverse enough that I don't feel like it's heavily scum-driven. (AJ jumped on while I was typing, which revises this a little, but then again I seriously doubt they're BOTH scum. If they are, this is the biggest hide in plain sight gambit ever.)

The other reason why I'm comfortable with it is that this is a situation that warrants investigation, one way or the other. The massclaim thing is much more substantive than what usually gets discussed (and what is used to lynch people) on D1. We have an opportunity to start playing the late game early, basically. Get flips related to RBD and get associations so that an RBD flip will also mean more.

[solidstate]

Uh, clarification- its ok by the site rules for me to talk about a game that was going on simultaneous to this one but ended, right?

[solidstate]

Its over, yeah. Via incomplete game and various ragequits.

@AJ: Regardless of your alignment, please do not leave. Go have some pie, calm down, and return. I just "completed" another game with McStab where he also got pretty belligerent (not while being lynched, but because people were refusing to join his wagon). He claims some of it was scum strategy, but suffice it to say it makes it clear that emotional manipulation/happily pushing people to replace out is part of his meta.

[solidstate]

I'm

coasting? You go quiet for 2 days while a major wagon is developing, don't comment on it at all and then suddenly jump in at L-1 yelling: 'OMG I wanna vote this other guy vote vote vote hey guys why you no vote? VOTE PLZ'

In the space of 3 posts and

less than an hour

, you did this:

Lynch anyone but these 3 people! (I'm not counting the IC)
Lynch cartographer!
Lynch solidstate!

I'm not really sure how anyone can possibly take that sort of posting seriously.

[solidstate]

Holy shit people posting faster that I can put a response together.

@Inte: I'm on McStab because I agree with Nacho's scum in the RBD wagon argument. Pushing on RBD today was scummy, because town would be curious to at least hear out the massclaim logic, not just want to shut it up ASAP. Wanting her immediately silenced is a scum motivation, regardless of whether you trust her 100%.

Also, McStab's cageyness about his role is hilarious. There's only 2 roles he can be claiming and scum will pretty much want them dead.

[solidstate]

You're not above Yoshi, no, because otherwise they're playing Doctor WIFOM and could waste their NK. After that you're next, as far as I can tell.

[solidstate]

It's provable by the existence of a T1 role.

Applejack isn't town and your farcical cases to defend someone who long ago gave up trying to defend her opinions with logic (hint: because there isn't any substance to them) is noted.

Who are you talking to, and expand on this a bit?

[solidstate]

As far as I see, nothing is proven. You're trying to hint at (it feels like to me) doc + 1 shot doc with your whole 'useless past tonight' comment. A 1-shot claim is REALLY weak since its utterly impossible to back up.

[solidstate]

Who is Equinox? Please stick to primary names not alt names or whatever, for those of us who aren't site veterans.

[solidstate]

To clarify: When I say impossible to prove, I don't mean that the existence of the role is impossible to verify throughout the course of the game. In an open setup, with enough flips, we should be able to deduce the entire setup.

I mean you can claim 1-shot doc and then go 'oops I got roleblocked sorry guys' when your heal target dies and we end up with no info until you die. Which might be a null observation, but its how I see that implied claim.

[solidstate]

I'll go back to the Defender lynch (I said I would do so if we got close to deadline). It is not simply lynch all lurkers, all the content he HAS posted has been terrible and scummy (especially the 'lynch me on D3').

I'm not convinced on these others. I do not necessarily give Apple the pass I give RBD, but I'm not sure I've seen a developed case in all the noise.

[solidstate]

UNVOTE:

WTF are the votecounts?

Again, I will absolutely join defender before deadline. Or possibly a lot sooner. Actually, I'll admit it: I want to wait so I can drop the hammer because I REALLY hated that D3 shit and the fact people didn't take it more seriously. 'Mislynch me on potential LyLo day, herp derp!'

[solidstate]

Nacho: There's a reason why I unvoted and didn't place my vote yet (other than my hammerlust), and I gave it in a prior post. I will repeat myself:

I'd like to see a more carefully laid out case to Apple than all this 'tunnel tunnel scumwagon OMGUS' shit. IE, reasons that are reasons, not buzzwords.

Apple does not have the 'pass' till D2 that I have given RBD, who I think deserves it. But we still have enough time for someone to spell it out and I am not going to quicklynch Apple for the sake of 'momentum.'

[solidstate]

Sorry Nacho, confused on who was screaming to OMG LYNCH who. There's a lot of that going around.

[solidstate]

So you will quicklynch Defender for the sake of momentum as opposed to AJ

Do you see me voting?

[solidstate]

I had a post typed up regarding AJ and Defender and blah blah blah stuff. I deleted it because fuck that, no.

The AJ lynch is unjustified. As far as I can see, there is no case at all outside of McStab's 'I SAID AJ WOULD VOTE ME AND IT HAPPENED.' That is not a case.

VOTE: Defender

Full disclosure on the math: Even if Cart joins me, it will be 6-5. Even if defender comes back from his convenient VLA during deadline, it will be 6-6. DC is being replaced.

I am addressing this to one the one person in the position to actually guard the town's interests and do the right thing: Seil, please change wagons.

Its true that AJ is not confirmed and could be scummy. We will get to that. But she could also be town and there is really no evidence regardless. There is no certainty here. WIFOM BLAH BLAH BLAH.

But you know what is confirmed? That Defender is 100000% a safe, pro-town lynch. If he's actually town, the loss is insignificant, and is actually possibly a benefit since he admits

he is incapable of playing the late game

. If he's actually scum, well there you go. Win fucking win. Please invoke your power of INNOCENCE AND LOVE and do this thing. It is the right thing to do.

[solidstate]

Nacho, I voted him, dont yell at me. Yell at seil and bitmap, they are the potentially townie people that need to move wagons.

[solidstate]

Well, confirmed townie person + potentially townie person. Obv.

[solidstate]

inte, if you really believe that AtE stuff so strongly, maybe you need to do an ISO read on McStab.

[solidstate]

I hate the pony shit but that picture made me laugh.

[solidstate]

inte you should respond to Nacho.

He made a very good point in counter to you: You said you want experience for scumhunting. In what way does Defender's existence contribute to this?

[solidstate]

Actually... I think right now Defender is at L-2 and AJ is at L-3? (they both had 5 as of my vote, DY voted for Mcstab again)? Correct if I'm wrong.

[solidstate]

its the same shit i've been saying

d3f3n3r lynch tells us nothing about the alignment of other players. he has zero associative tells

It gives us associative tells about the people RABIDLY defending him, IE you.

[solidstate]

Defender is L-3, AJ is L-3.

He might have been quicklynched because of you.

I'm suspicious of the claimed docs but its 50-50: There could be scum there, or they could both be legit and scum was waiting out the (implied) 1-shot.

[solidstate]

Alright, at least we have a better idea of what we're working with. I'm finding it a little odd that none of our claimed PRs got deleted. DoomYoshi has been a little suspicious, but I can see this being a ploy too. Maybe we should start at the Defender wagon and see what we turn up. We know that at least 2/3 of the Applejack wagon was town. Defender had his own vote on solidstate.

First its convenient for you to aim fingers at wagons when

you didn't vote at all

. I don't disagree that there's scum in his wagon (there's likely to be scum on

every

successful day 1 wagon), but there's no reason to give you a special pass for sitting on the sideline, right? Not on the wagon would be a nice place for the now-very-likely SK to hide.

Second, where defender's vote was matters why? He's now a confirmed VI who contributed nothing to the game, and had no power role to give him an extra info on anything. Have you read his ISO? If anything, it should convince you he had a special

lack

of knowledge. Trying to suggest that his vote is anything but a null-tell is a

blatant

misrep of game logic. Please stop that.

The biggest place I think that warrants attention is Bitmap. Please take a look at his ISO and votes. Not only was he on the successful wagon yesterday (hopping on at the end), but prior to that he was on a wagon against RBD (as well as being on DY's). If he had succeeded in the Applejack lynch that he also pushed strongly until it lost steam, both RBD and AJ would be dead (the two people most strongly in support of the massclaim). Speaking of the massclaim, he was against the massclaim yesterday but now accepts it given that it's received public support.

On the massclaim, I'll do it if the rest of the town thinks its a good idea although I don't really know if it benefits or harms us and don't have time to do another crazy math-attack on it right now. Maybe later.

[solidstate]

I was just in the process of quoting that post when you posted.

I asked RBD a question about it the first time around and I don't think she ever answered. I'm not sure why the mafia PR flip is so important, especially the Godfather (3 of the 4 possible setups remaining have one?). Of course, as it is we have no mafia flips.

[solidstate]

Yeah, I think I am with Yoshi's logic from 812.

More than that, I think the scenario that Yoshi is describing is exactly what the scum plotted out in their faction talk last night, and that's why Bitmap has done a total 180 and is now pushing the massclaim hard. He worked out his fakeclaim with a buddy.

VOTE: Bitmap

For the reasons above and those in my prior post about him being on RBD and AJ wagons yesterday.

[solidstate]

No u?

In all seriousness, I've given my reasons. You've completely reversed your position from yesterday.

You were part of that trio (you, Carto, Mcstab) that pushed RBD's wagon.

You pushed AJ's wagon.

You hated the massclaim and did everything you could to get its supporters killed. And now you love it. You might say that RBD's flip is a reason for your reversal, but I just don't think that holds water. It also seems like you're trying to misrep RBD to push the massclaim harder than she would have pushed it herself (as Yoshi said, you quoted something in support that... basically says the opposite of what you are arguing for).

I think you should die now.

[solidstate]

His sudden refusal to use his setup spec mathematics when it's more important than ever

Sudden refusal? Talk about misreps. To refuse, I'd have to be asked, and say no.

The last time I wrote one no one even seemed to give a shit. Why should I write one if you're all just going to tl;dr? Do you actually want the math, or are you just being a douchebag? Because I think its the latter. The McStab as douchebag thing is pretty well-established by now.

But seriously, I want to focus on this one phrase, because it is perhaps the most hilarious thing I've seen in my entire time on this site:

(and with RBD gone, he knows no one else can do it)

I'll let that sink in. Apparently, I'm the only player with a highschool math education and access to the wiki. Because that's ALL THAT IS REQUIRED.

Of course, Applejack would be participating in theory discussion if McAsshole hadn't driven her off too, but whatever.

As far as I can tell, myself and Yoshi are the only people discussing the logic of the massclaim. I have no idea why Yoshi is on me other than resentment from a D1 vote, but whatever. Despite the same suspicions everyone had, I defended RBD and that was the right choice.

Bitmap tried to lynch town-confirmed and massclaim proponent RBD

, tried to lynch Applejack, and now looks like he'll just be happy to lynch someone to defend his scummy hide.

If anyone wants math, say so and I'll do what I can, but I've laid out some pretty obvious logic here and I'm not sure what the difficulty is in following it. If you trust to be on Bitmap's side of a wagon at this stage in the game there are serious issues with your judgment.

[solidstate]

1. It's implied I'm asking now. On top of that, why wouldn't you want to volunteer? Taking a reactive stance and only providing content when asked is scummy.

Didn't I implicitly volunteer when I first posted about it? Would you even be talking about it if I hadn't offered? Acting like I'm being cagey or withholding information is ridiculous.

If you're trying to make me not doing significant amounts of extra work fast enough into a scumtell, that's ridiculous. Many people haven't even posted in D2 and the deadline is weeks off. Since there's interest, I'll post something, but this whole complaint is nonsense.

2. Considering that we've been discussing setup spec for the last three or four pages, and this setup is paramount to how we play the game, and no one else has done the math or talked about what is proper (and providing SERIOUS evidence to back it up, as opposed to one or two pros or one or two cons), I consider this evidence that not anyone is able to do accurate setup spec on this setup.

'We've'? I think only DoomYoshi has really discussed it significantly, Bitmap has just quoted RBD posts (sometimes incorrectly and out of context).

More significantly, what DoomYoshi posted (in 812 and 813) is 100% accurate. I can give you figures similar to D1 (which were about lynch odds assuming all the mafia claimed VT), but that's NOT what is likely to happen here. Only one mafia will claim VT. The other two will claim PRs. As DoomYoshi said, our setup is BBMDxxx (or BBMDxxT if we assume it was an SK kill). Because scum KNEW we would discuss the massclaim, it would be trivial for the mafia to create a pair of fakeclaims. If they claimed to be a pair of masons, for instance (suggesting BBMMMDT), there would be absolutely no way to invalidate that claim. Is anything confusing about this? I'm willing to explain a lot more about THIS part of the theory, if its confusing to anyone.

This is especially why I am suspicious of anyone who moved from opposing the massclaim to supporting it (Bitmap). That change in behavior is exactly what you would expect from a mafia membe. On D1, they would be frightened by it because they were surprised and had no chance to coordinate claims. On N1, they come up with a double claim. On D2, they support the massclaim and 2 of them claim matching power roles. The town is very effectively blindsided.

3. Yeah, my fault she replaced out. Let's follow this thought process:

I don't really want to get into a huge argument about the Applejack situation. She flat out said she was leaving because of you.

It's pretty much irrelevant to the game or to anyone's alignment that she left, but its relevant to your specific accusation that somehow I'm the only 'logician' left and that my 'refusal' is some attempt at town sabotage. I'd really like to know what I've done to sabotage the town, or even harm it in the least bit (beyond a policy lynch, which are perfectly normal).

4. "I defended RBD and that was the right choice." Bullshit.

Are you denying that I defended RBD? I can quote many, many posts where I did.

Or are you saying defending her was the wrong choice?

You defended Applejack, the wrong choice, and before you get on your high chair, let me remind you that the player who I defended, Defender, flipped town, while you joined that shit wagon, and Inte, who defended me most staunchly, also flipped town. Your partisan factionalist attitude is clouding your judgement if you think you defended RBD.

Applejack's alignment is unknown, so you can't say its the wrong choice. Defender was a policy lynch and so there is absolutely nothing 'wrong' with it. He was lynched because he was so painfully bad he would lead to a town loss regardless of alignment, something he

admitted

. I stand by it, and in the long term it may well help town win the game (because there probably isn't a vig, and scum would definitely leave him alive into endgame).

Solidstate tried to lynch Tier 2 claimed PR McStab and pushed a lynch on someone who had no chance to claim.

WTF?

McStab Misrep #1

I joined the wagon on you when your alignment was unknown, stayed around to try and get you to make an ACTUAL claim. Claiming a tier without a role is not a particularly convincing claim (since you could easily adapt it into a believable fakeclaim for any known T1), so its ridiculous to suggest I was trying to get someone town-aligned lynched. Your play at the time made you look INCREDIBLY scummy. I've only come around to you (and I'm only even really debating you now) because you've actually made a full claim today, which is a lot more credible.

Who did I push to lynch that had no chance to claim? Defender? Bullshit. Defender claimed VI through his actions, had PLENTY of opportunity to defend himself throughout the game, and never even tried to participate. I'm not the one who got him quicklynched (

I corrected the vote count

, YOU gave the wrong one), and I'm not sure being VLA over deadline gives you an excuse not to be lynched because you can't claim. I mean, I'm pretty sure if I went VLA right now, you'd continue against me at full speed.

5. "Bitmap tried to lynch Applejack". Yeah, so did Seilkops, confirmed Innocent Child, and Inte, confirmed town; they tried to lynch someone who isn't confirmed anything. RBD wasn't town confirmed at the time. So your first two points against Bitmap are total bullshit.

The extent to which you've taken this out of context is significant.

McStab Misrep #2

I wasn't claiming that trying to lynch Applejack

by itself

really confirmed anything about alignment. I never mentioned Applejack by herself. Every time I mentioned Applejack, it was in a list RBD, to indicate

a pattern in which Bitmap tried to kill people who were in favor of the massclaim

.

Indeed, talking about who voted for who based on confirmed or nonconfirmed alignments is totally missing the point. I'm talking about sides in the massclaim. Bitmap put himself STRONGLY on the anti-massclaim side by trying to lynch multiple people supporting the massclaim (along with saying that he opposed it).

Finally, you claim he's opportunistic? Meanwhile you come out of the blue and attack Bitmap to try and distract us from massclaim speculation. The irony is palpable.

McStab Misreps #3 and 4

First, I indicated suspicion toward Bitmap in one of my early posts and stuck with it. What was 'out of the blue' about my vote?

Second, I'm not the first person who voted someone, so how am I 'trying to distract' anyone? Is confirmed-innocent Seilkops trying to 'distract' people by voting for Nacho? Are your wagon-buddies trying to distract from the massclaim by voting for me? Are you?

If you listen to the illogical ramblings of Solid at this stage in the game, and you try to find some other wagon besides this one, there are serious issues with your judgement.

So I'm logical enough to be the only person left who can do a setup analysis, but I'm otherwise ranting illogically? Sweet

[solidstate]

I'm not really trying to discredit him, I'm trying to discredit his stupid analysis of me because I'm town and don't want to get mislynched, and especially not in preference into someone who I think SCREAMS scum at this point: Bitmap.

I think McStab is more likely to be town than not. The T2 claim is risky. Its hardly bulletproof (especially since he didn't claim his actual role until the next day, getting a chance to see more flips and coordinate with mafia buddies for a matching RB claim), but I think its probably going to turn out to be true.

Btw I'm typing up a huge tl;dr textwall on theory, but as I pointed out above, its not going to be terribly useful because of exactly what you said earlier. At a quick glance, scum claiming VT would give us between 50 and 100% (lol) lynch odds due to the number of VT deaths. However, scum also has a lot of very safe fakeclaims. So my immediate assessment is that the massclaim is likely to be helpful for catching a theoretical SK, but not for catching the mafia.

[solidstate]

Are you really this dumb?

The only way we have LESS than 3 scum is for the setup to be 5T or more.

You just basically acknowledged that your own claim is fake (2Bs + 1M (seilkops) + 5T = 8, = invalid setup)

[solidstate]

Yeah, I should have put 'mafia' not scum in the prior post, but what I'm saying is still true.

Only 5T, 6T, and 7T have 2 mafia.

5T, 6T, and 7T are IMPOSSIBLE if you're not fakeclaiming.

[solidstate]

... thanks I guess?

Have you read back to DY's 812 and 813? The fact that you'd jump on me in the first place for assuming 3 mafia suggests that you're really not following along or up-to-date. You asked me for theory but DY has already provided a lot of it and you should READ it.

If we assume that neither you or him is fakeclaiming, then BBDMVxx or BBDMxxT are the setups. And the problem is, if we massclaim, one of two things will happen:

1) The x'es will turn out to be town PRs, we'll have too many role claims but no information at all on which claims are fake or true. We'll probably then mislynch one of our own PRs, and then the scum can possibly use their superior information to keep us in WIFOM until the endgame (only killing people they know won't invalidate their own claims).

2) The x'es will turn out to be VTs. In that case, we'll spend a couple days lynching VTs (possibly killing one mafia and a maybe-SK along the way) while our PRs die and probably end up in something like a 3-2 LyLo with no extra information (which is something like 88% scum win)

[solidstate]

I was supportive of keeping RBD alive to continue discussing the massclaim with someone knowledgeable, not specifically to do it without knowing anything more about the game. Keep in mind that the value of the massclaim changes depending on deaths/flips.

RBD gave us some circumstances for a D2 massclaim, and 3 dead VTs isn't listed (I think precisely because it guarantees that the scum will fakeclaim while also denying us any information). RBD did not say 'we automatically massclaim tomorrow.' So why should I want to do it automatically? It really rested on having certain 'meaningful' flips, so you could be a bit more certain of what setup you're in. I've been struggling over why the godfather flip was so critical, and the best I can figure out is that it rules out 3T which turns out being really bad for the town if that's our current situation.

And just keep in mind how little we know about the game (seilkops' role, 3 VT deaths, and the presence of a vig or SK - that's it).

Can you explain to me why Bitmap is not a good lynch? Can you give me any pro-town arguments for him at all? He was on Defender's lynch (which you seem to have a big problem with - I think it was justified but meh), and he was one of the major opponents of RBD. And yet today he started out very pro-massclaim. What possible logic explains his reverse of opinion better than a scum who just worked out his fakeclaim during night chat?

[solidstate]

There's a godfather in every setup but 3T and 4T.

What's this roleblocker-centric strategy you referred to above?

[solidstate]

The extremes of either end are equally (un)likely, its a bell-curve distribution centered around 3T and 4T (both at 27%). 0T is exactly as unlikely as 7T (.78% for each).

So I think all a godfather flip tells you on its own is that you're not in the middle. Its only really useful paired with other information (how many other PRs or VTs you have).

[solidstate]

Solidstate > Cartographer >>> Nacho >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Bitmap in terms of lynchability

I asked you once already, and you didn't answer.

Can you give any reason that Bitmap isn't scummy? I've given tons of reasons why he is, many of which are similar (or identical, or worse) than the ones you use to accuse me.

@Carto:

Can you elaborate a little? What do you mean people should 'know' 5 other roles? Why do you say we 'know' anything about DY, McStab, or Bitmap?

The only absolute (proven) role information we have is Seilkops and a 2nd NK. Even if we accept the other claims (and there's no special reason to do so), that's only 3 people (and a 4th unknown person in a quasi-known role), so I'm not sure what you mean about knowing at least 5 people.

[solidstate]

but when we have 3 VT flips after the first night, Bitmap, and a kill which is statistically more likely to be SK than Vig, the 0T, 2T become a little less of a possibility.

Yeah, I agree that 3T and 1T are likely setups if you buy the claims. There's still no actual in-play evidence to support the claims, so its sort of an exercise in nothing. Either we do a full massclaim and suss it out, or the claims remain under suspicion until we get flips or other evidence to support them.

I'm... still missing what's special about Bitmap. Why do you reference him specifically here?

I'm going to read his ISO and try to figure out what this mysterious thing people are referring to is because I'm frankly not seeing it. I'm not tunneled, and I'm happy to look elsewhere if there's some ACTUAL evidence in support of him, but... all I see is shady votes, a shady 180 on the massclaim, and contentless posts like 837.

[solidstate]

Scum can type 'I'm town, I know I'm town' too? I still feel like I'm missing something unless there's some huge implied meta whatever at work here.

The 'its OK to lynch me' is VT-claim-y, sure, but considering he posted that before the massclaim stuff started, there's not really much risk in the claim. Claiming VT once we were talking about the massclaim would be more impressive since the aim is to separate out the VT-claims and lynch them if the power roles add up properly.

[solidstate]

Hrm. I guess I'll chalk this up a bit to site dynamics and people being familiar with playstyles since it looks fairly null to me. But I guess there is enough to it that there are other options. I wouldn't trust him based on that in a LyLo, of course.

UNVOTE:

My next strongest scumread is McStab (for oh so many reasons), but he's locked up in that claim so its not a high priority to lynch him

[solidstate]

*makes note of McStab screaming OMG OMG OMG DO NOT LYNCH BITMAP and then blaming people when they leave the wagon when there's no votes left*

Also, tunneling at me over zabriel for no apparent reason.

[solidstate]

@mod: Prods? Replacements?

I'm also not thrilled with the whole 'there's scum in those two' from zabriel, for several reasons.

First along the same lines as Nacho; it feels like a cop-out when there's substantive conversation going on, and an easy way to discredit a couple people while directing attention away from yourself or from other topics.

Second, it doesn't seem to be based

what

we're arguing about, just the fact that we're arguing. Arguing is a null tell if there ever was one, unless there's something flawed IN the argument, or if the argument takes on a drastically different tenor than usual for the poster, etc. So why is this null-tell so important?

Third, prior to saying that our fight is 'interesting' and that you're 'getting stuff' from it, you said in two prior posts that I was making more sense. So... where's the sudden reversal that I'm now half of a probable scum argument? Or why do I both make sense while giving you the impression of my argument being scummy? What interesting stuff did you get out of the argument that has led you to this conclusion?

VOTE: zabriel

For what its worth, I agree McStab is super scummy. His scumslip (made while accusing me of one) would probably be enough to lynch him if he didn't have the prior claim. BUT, given the claim, it doesn't make much sense to lynch him now unless we go for the full massclaim.

[solidstate]

Yes, my horrendous opportunism and revenge focus is why I'm on Nacho's wagon.

Oh wait, I'm not.

[solidstate]

@Bitmap: Feel better man.

@zabriel: What's the purpose of this return to doctor protections and the nightkill? Do you think there's something to uncover there? It feels like another attempt at a distraction. We're very likely to work out a lot more regarding the power roles tomorrow, either with a full massclaim or simply by starting to get more informative flips.

[solidstate]

Not a lot I can add without some more participants.

Overall, I still trust Carto more than certain slots (including ones that aren't posting, which continues to be a big issue).

[solidstate]

What scumslip?

If you go back to our long argument McStab calls me out (in 848) for talking about how the various mafia could claim in a massclaim. He leaps on my specifics with glee saying this is a scumslip because how could I know their numbers?!

Except its a slip in the other direction. The only way we DON'T know the exact number of mafia is if McStab's tier 2 PR claim is fake (because his claim implies a setup of BBMxxxx at least, and any possible setup for those letters has 3 mafia). Granted, it could just be stupidity, but its another reason I don't trust him at all and a reason he needs to have his claim examined heavily tomorrow.

Solid you can still get some towncred by bussing a partner you know, if you get on this Carto lynch early

Hmm, and then as soon as I switch wagons you're hopping up and down shouting OPPORTUNIST MOAR VOTES PLZ again, amrite? Hey look, two of us can play the 'predict what other people will do' game!

In all seriousness, I already made my point on Carto, which is that I trust him more than I trust certain others. Why are you pressing so hard on Carto when the counter points you just made are all against DoomYoshi in regard to the SK logic?

[solidstate]

Or at least, 1 and 2 are, I'm not sure #3 makes sense to me but I guess its about Carto.

I feel I should add, I do agree with McStab that a modkill has nothing at all to do with this vig/SK thing. The vig's power is the vig's power and using it poorly is part of the RISK of the power, it's not a violation of game rules or win condition. Maybe the mod should come by and clarify that because its a really silly thing to say.

[solidstate]

Yeah, as much as I have previously had a town read on Carto (more D1 than D2, but everyone is more suspicious D2 just by numbers)... this recent out of the blue claim is very bizarre.

While this statement is obviously WIFOM-y

I wish I could play as badly as some of you and fall back on a safe power role claim to make me townie.

it strikes me that he might be doing exactly this, especially since he said earlier on that he's new to the site and wanted to follow the lead of more experienced players. His current play is essentially mimicking DY/McStab (and to an extent Bitmap) to keep himself safe. Unfortunately, if he's town he's quite possibly lying to do it or he might just think it's a safe cover as scum.

Carto should definitely claim fully, but I'm not sure its wise to let someone (new) off for a claim like this at this particular point in the game.

[solidstate]

There's nothing in your big post that we didn't talk about days ago, Bitmap. The problem is that the scum aren't just going to all claim VT and hide with the 2 ??'s. Some of them are going to claim power roles (or already have), and so neither pool of people will be confirmed as all town.

So its not quite as easy of a win as you're suggesting unless you've caught on to something not in your post.

[solidstate]

Wow. Spend a day playing Dishonored (its pretty sweet) and this is what I miss?

So after all of this I'm really no more enthusiastic about the massclaim than the last time we were talking theory. There's nothing new except a lot of lying, and that introduces more chaos that makes the massclaim even less valuable.

On the other side of the argument, our strong PRs (if they exist) are still stealthed right now. I won't specify which roles are more likely to exist among the non-claimed populace but I think they give the town an edge.

Besides, we have an obvious lynch. Lets do that and then act in reasoned fashion once we have some real info.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: DoomYoshi

Lying, really?

[solidstate]

Yeah, he called me 'follow along scum' for... placing a vote on a liar on my very first post after the lie was revealed? OH HOW SCUMMY OF ME.

I agree about the timing. If you go back and look at the posts from Glad and DDD, as well as Bitmap's strong push for the massclaim, DY's un-claim follows those. It reads to me like he felt the massclaim coming and wanted to get off his claim on his own rather than being caught on it.

[solidstate]

Er, follows those posts from Glad and DDD placing themselves on the pro-massclaim side, that is.

[solidstate]

If your case was weak, and I knew that, then I wasn't under pressure. I could've got away without claiming. My point is that my claim was intentional, once it was revealed we had an IC. It wasn't the result of your laughable case.

What? You had a full wagon and posted intent to hammer (161). How exactly could you have gotten away without claiming, Mr. Liar McLiarface?

[solidstate]

Sure. VT as well. I have a thought for when the massclaim is over.

I could care less about the order, I guess Nacho next?

[solidstate]

Lol. McStab ruins my fun of outing him with math by outing himself. Alas.

It should go without saying that

listening to advice from a claimed SK is probably the stupidest thing anyone can do, ever.

[solidstate]

Notice that I'm not voting for you, scumtard. The 87% figure is accurate, and the math I was talking about had nothing to do with that, it was proof for the MC5T setup (based on odds of hitting 5/5 VTs vs 5/7 VTs, which are vastly different).

My post was to highlight the fact that you are scum and therefore no longer part of a discussion among the town. No one should listen to anything you have to say, our decisions from here forward should be made with 0% acknowledgment of your input, and its a shame this forum doesn't have an ignore function because we would be well-advised to all turn it on.

Following this post, I will never acknowledge your text in any way for the rest of the game and I suggest everyone follow suit. He's an asshole besides, so it will make the game more enjoyable and maybe he'll stop posting.

[solidstate]

If he's SK, why wouldn't we listen to him?

You understand that the SK isn't a town-aligned role, right? Just because he doesn't win with the Mafia doesn't mean he shares our interests. He has no special information on who the mafia are. He also admitted he tried and failed to hit scum last night (and maybe the night before as well) so his scumdar isn't particularly good either.

This isn't to say we should lynch him. We shouldn't, at least today.

[solidstate]

For my own sake, I think I'd still probably prefer Zabriel.

I'm not aware of a standing case on Nacho beyond general style (and weren't some people fingering him as SK?), I still have a light town read on Carto (definitely diminished by the vig gambit - and please stop talking about an 'alliance' with the SK), and while I don't have much from DDD's play, I have a strong associative feel between Azusa and RBD and AJ on day 1, so I have a feeling the slot is town.

[solidstate]

zab, I'm not assuming he's honest so much as I'm assuming he's not really stupid. Last night his best play would have been to try and hit scum. Today, his best play is to get us to lynch town. The good thing is that he still has no special way of knowing town from mafia, but its why I'm not voting with him even though I have the least amount of town-read on you. Also, DDD is right that there's a chance he's fake-claiming again, in which case we obviously don't want to be voting with him (another reason I'm not on you).

[solidstate]

Actually...

VOTE: Carto

Reasoning:
1) Going way back, the RBD wagon. Nacho's comment about that wagon has since been proven true (mcstab is scum), a second one on it (variety of scum doesn't matter here) is not implausible.
2) Today, McStab said he will lynch me, Zab, or Nacho. The fact that he didn't include Carto is noteworthy whether he's mafia or SK (SK just wants a mislynch, mafia obviously will protect its partner). Also see the next:
3) McStab's fakeclaim came before Carto had massclaimed (they came before DDD had as well, but he'd sort of quasi-claimed accusing McStab). If he was faking SK to keep his partner from getting caught, speaking before the other scum claimed is helpful.
4) All of my town read on him was really residual day 1. Carto's play since then has definitely not improved. The vigilante gambit is just as logical (or even more logical) as an attempt to draw a town counterclaim to get a PR target for the mafia.

I've been doing rereads for associative tells but there's a lot of game out there. I think I'm happy with this for now.

[solidstate]

Carto, I listed my reasons. You can apply whatever labels you want to them, but I'm not sure what that adds? They work by a few different processes (elimination, association, general play, scum behavior, etc).

[solidstate]

That referred to the last part of #4, where your fakeclaim could be taken as scum trolling to draw out counterclaims.

[solidstate]

As far as I know, there's no number magic that will give us further info right now, although if others have some they should definitely post it ASAP.

The setup is almost certainly the MC5T as McStab said. Unfortunately beyond him and you, we know nothing in absolute terms about the alignment of the remaining players (and we only know that McStab is non-town, not mafia or SK).

We can work out likely future outcomes, although I really don't want to go into too much detail on these because I don't want to give them any free advice. Lynching McStab is straight 13% win chance, not lynching him is... hard to calculate (they might still be lower: its 20% to even hit mafia and that doesn't even guarantee us a win, but there are ways we can still win even if we mislynch today and those odds are wonky). Really, 6 straight town aligned deaths mean that our strict win odds

suck

no matter what we do. What we really need isn't the math so much as our lynching to be more accurate than the random odds math assumes.

[solidstate]

Bleh, talking to the scum because I cannot resist arguing numbers. First, you're scum. Second, we're talking about lynching Carto not you so your self defense is a waste of electrons. I am not trying to lynch you. Third, you're scum.

Anyway, no, the math isn't really much better for keeping McStab. Effectively its 13% (if we kill him and do double lylo, from the wiki) vs... try and hit one 1 of 2 mafia out of 5 players (40% total chance), then hope the SK hits the other mafia (25%, which assumes a choice to avoid seilkops) in which case we win immediately the next day by lynching the SK (100%). So 40% * 25% * 100% = 10% town win. Then add a couple more percent for two cases where we lose unless scum takes very specific actions (to survive if the SK kill hits town, or if we mislynch today, both at very bad odds for us). Everything else that can possibly happen is a town loss.

A simpler way to say it is that its 13% chance totally in our control vs 10% + X% from potential scum errors/conflict. The EV we get out of that X is not much more than 2-4% because these actions are not scum-optimal (and I can do arduous math to show why if anyone wants it). But...

Since its really close anyway and our lynch outcomes thus far are demonstrably worse than random I think we're

equally fucked

either way, and so we may as well give scum a chance to win for us.

In that spirit, can we hear from the people not voting at all? A fair bit of time has passed and if someone else doesn't talk me and McStab will just keep mathing.

[solidstate]

Very happy to spread paranoia about the ponies without actually taking them on early in the game;

First, most of the population was paranoid about the massclaim idea and the AJ/RBD buddying. Paranoia is pretty normal.

Second, I refused to go after RBD in the later part of day 1. My most serious suspicion directed at her was prior to explaining how she wanted the massclaim done (ie, D3 or D2 based on specific flips).

has ended up in bad position on a pair of town lynches;

Uh... you mean the exact same two town lynches your slot voted for?

And Nacho?

And Bitmap (as an example of a confirmed town-aligned making the same mistake)?

and lately has seemed to care far more about the numbers than who is actually scum.

Lately? I think I first started talking about them day 1

Also, numbers/setup analysis did eventually find scum (its my 'thought' in post 1125, and you clearly noticed the same thing). I kept my lips tight because I was hoping his buddy would claim with him and we'd get a 2fer.

Anyway, is this anything more than a playstyle attack? I like numbers and setup logic. My avatar is numbers. Its why I play open setups. I've posted non-numbers content as well (I also like textwall debates, as you're now learning!), and this just seems like a lazy (and not especially alignment-focused) way to accuse me.

I'm not voting for zabriel because I refuse to vote in the direction McStab wants me to vote;

Agree on this, though!

[solidstate]

EBWOP to add:

I still think Cartogropher's bizarre play makes more sense from town that scum

I'm kind of back and forth between this position, and thinking that bad play is alignment neutral and Carto could just be the scum equivalent of DoomYoshi. I have one pro-Carto point in my head but it only works under certain circumstances.

I have a semi-relevant question DDD, you were one person who doesn't seem to take the McStab claim as ironclad: Do you think he's really mafia?

[solidstate]

Paranoia without cause is counterproductive but understandable if kept to yourself; floating such paranoia into the game against town players is a net negative.

If you're trying to imply that I created the paranoia vs there being plenty of it around in general, that's really quite a reach. It was publicly expressed from many directions, and if I'd never written a single post I'm pretty sure people still would have posted paranoid shit about RBD.

So you're definitely putting a spin on something pretty mundane, while at the same time ignoring the part of my play that was actually substantially different from other people (that I backed off after RBD posted more info).

You know I had written out that just because my slot had done the same didn’t somehow invalidate this argument but deleted it hoping I wouldn’t have to make that obvious argument.

I can see why you'd want to leave out that your argument is equally self-implicating, yes.

Less snarkily, if you did it and you're town, doesn't that make it a null tell at best? Sort of like playstyle, which was another thing you brought up? Sort of like the widely-expressed paranoia?

I count three null-tells in a row as your case, more or less.

The numbers that specifically bother me are the numbers lately about win percentages for doing X or Y instead of trying to find scum, because if we lynch town again the marginal differences are so slim as to not really matter.

Isn't that

exactly

the conclusion I reached? That it was a difference between 13% and 10% + (some really irrelevant corner case amount that is probably not more than 2-4%) and thus not much of a difference? Counter-arguing McStab's argument that keeping him alive would give us significantly better odds?

If anything, it seems like you're suspicious of me because my play (in result, if not style) is too similar to your own (we both had the McStab conclusion before he claimed as well). I can see why a player would have that reaction, though.

I’d call it a fifty-fifty proposition; his claim makes so much more sense from mafia than from a serial killer for reasons I already detailed.

If this is your belief, shouldn't we look at buddy-links for McStab, and lynch McStab as a fallback if there's no strong case out there?

On the above topic, here's one for general consideration: People not on the McStab wagon: Zabriel and Nacho.

Nacho can you comment on that especially, considering your suspicion was actually something that pushed me (and maybe others, dunno) toward that wagon in the first place?

[solidstate]

The problem is that it looked/looks to me like you spent multiple posts just doing math instead of coming to that conclusion and then finding scum, instead you did more math and then some more math.

I've posted non-math content as well, so this still feels like nitpicking how I play rather than pointing at anything scummy. I can't argue back at a gut suspicion, but don't try and sell a bunch of null stuff as a pretend case.

I’m not lynching on tenuous possible connections to McStab who may or may not be a SK or mafia. I’m going to lynch whoever I think is most likely scum today,

figure the other scum if still alive will blast away at McStab

and if he’s still alive tomorrow somehow lynch him then and worst case probably have town end up in 2-1 LYLO.

That's naive, isn't it? An absolute gift scenario to town? If he's actually SK, I can't imagine mafia risking a wasted shot (vs possible bulletproof) when they can just lynch the next day. A different SK would have more reason to kill him but is still under greater pressure to find his partner.

So yeah, the only part of this that isn't odd is 'lynch ... most likely scum'.

@Seil: Keep in mind Yoshi isn't confirmed town, and don't call him that. We have no evidence at all that he is town, and any scum at L-1 is going to make a PR claim in his situation. Its just that its safer for the town to lynch someone else. But if you die, the town will be well-advised to lynch him. If he is still alive in a couple days, the town will be well-advised to lynch him (because if he's really a doctor, the scum will have to kill him to get to you). Applejack alluded to this as well, I think. There's really no reason to treat him as any less scummy, he's just more or less lynchproof for the day.

scum or SK wouldn't that yoshi was lying, town wouldn't know that yoshi was lying
essentially, no one would. so I give up looking at this now.

Could you clarify? I don't quite get these sentences.

I assume this is about the 'townslip', which someone is going to have to explain to me after the game because I've never understood it (in general: I didn't understand Bitmap's 'slip' that people were talking about either). Mostly I was cautioning seilkops because I'd just played another game with him (same one that convinced me too late that I never want to play with McStab) where he got lynched day 1 as town. Since he was our IC, I was hoping he'd play better and didn't want him fooled by (fake)claims. Claims at threat of lynch are always fishy.

why exactly did you jump so readily to lynch Doom while you hesitated a bit more with Cartographer?

Doom's claim was at threat of lynch, Carto's was spontaneous (and quickly withdrawn). Doom kept lying to defend himself (in post 1108), which dug the hole deeper. Plus I had an ongoing townread on Carto (or at least D1 Carto).

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Zabriel

The timing of the vig thing would make for some pretty derpy scum.

[solidstate]

I think you just have 2 votes? Unless the last mod vote count was wrong.

[solidstate]

Staying classy, I see.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: McStab

[solidstate]

I thought you said it was 50% that he was mafia? When did you 'come to the conclusion'?

Anyway, obviously its superior to lynch a different scum today if we can, but mislynching puts us in a very bad position. I'm dubious that one outweighs the other although I haven't had time to completely re-analyze it.

Still, if we lynch him now, there is only a single night scenario in which we don't survive (both kills hit town). Every other outcome of night actions gives us at least one win chance, in some cases several, and in one case an instant win. Yes, if we lynch a different scum today those outcomes become automatic wins instead of mi/lylos, but we also have a (better than average) chance of mislynching and putting our game right back in the toilet.

The other problem with trying to lynch is who are we going to? And remember that

McStab is STILL HERE

. As we bounce around on wagons, he can always jump in to hammer his non-partner, so we have higher odds of hitting town/SK and lower chances of getting his partner. We also get him shitting WIFOM all over everything.

[solidstate]

Actually... holy shit no. Kill Nacho right now. This is another trick from McStab.

Go read his ISO. He has never, ever voted with the vote tag, he just uses bold.

Thus he would not 'accidentally' hit wiki trying to hit vote.

Thus this IS him shitting WIFOM on the game to clear his buddy Nacho.

VOTE: Nacho

Do it. Do it right now.

[solidstate]

I'll vote for McStab if there's no other option, but the only town person I'm willing to look at is Nacho at this point. I really think McStab slipped his strategy there.

[solidstate]

Meh, silly, scummy wording is silly scummy wording (I just ment town in the sense of 'the town', all the players in the game), not much I can do about it. Still, we're really unlikely partners. See me wagoning him D1 on a 2-person team up to L-1 and the chance of some whacko hammering, him voting me yesterday and him voting me now (essentially suicide).

I still think the Nacho thing is legit. If I'm alive tomorrow, I'm going to be pushing him again. Not only is McStab's 'error' clearly faked, but Nacho is still one of the people who avoided McStab's wagon after making a 'show' of suspicion toward him. This strikes me as much more likely partner bussing behavior D1 (distancing himself from McStab by stating suspicion but then going silent when a wagon actually forms in response). Hell, the fact that McStab has

finally

shut up and checked out of the game is more proof in my eyes that he's realized the mistake and doesn't want to argue himself deeper into the hole. Many of you have expressed a lot of suspicion toward him, don't let my stupid error clear him.

VOTE: McStab

Otherwise I'm out of meaningful shit to argue about. No one else seems comfortable voting him today, and that is a reasonable instinct. McStab is 'good enough' and keeps us in the fight, vs odds of a misslynch that gets us killed.