Open 446: C9++ (Avast! Viruses!) - GAME OVER

[solidstate]

Sure. VT as well. I have a thought for when the massclaim is over.

I could care less about the order, I guess Nacho next?

[Cartographer]

Gladis I liked you

To answer your question, I think Nacho is SK. I think Zab is mafia.

Nacho's push against DY yesterday looked like a self preservation move.

[Nachomamma8]

VT, DDD next

[McStab]

No one vote before the massclaim is finished. I have an important piece of information to bring to the table, and a single vote could put this game into dire straights.

[McStab]

In fact no one vote until I comment after the massclaim is finished.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

No one vote before the massclaim is finished. I have an important piece of information to bring to the table, and a single vote could put this game into dire straights.

Is that because when I tell everyone that I'm a VT we're going to lynch you for being lying scum?

[McStab]

Yes, and you will be likely throwing the game if you do.

I'm SK. I lied about my T2 claim hoping there would be a Roleblocker; really, anything but the noose was better Day One. I tried to buy time for myself by not being specific Day One (trying to find a claimed T1 role other than DoomYoshi; I didn't want to risk my chances of survival on someone I thought was mafia), and it largely worked; I thought there was a Roleblocker in the setup and I thought that the Mafia wouldn't waste one of their shots on me if I was just a claimed 1 shot RB (I'm BP, but I didn't want them to waste a shot on me; town is pretty OP in alot of these setups).

I also worked to delay the massclaim yesterday to prevent this from happening. I was hoping when I killed Bitmap that I'd hit Mafia, and, at very least, I'd hit someone who wanted the massclaim. When he flipped town PR, I knew that A) Massclaim would've been inevitable at this point and B) it's more important to stop the Mafia.

This is the setup letters:

MCTTTTT

Seilkops is the Innocent Child; Bitmap was the one shot cop; and I was hoping the massclaim would draw out a Mafia fakeclaim.

Now you're probably wondering, why not lynch the SK. Well, this is why:

You lynch me today, tonight Mafia kill someone (presumably Seilkops for PoE's sake); this leaves five players, with two Mafia and three VTs. That's two days of LyLo. One needs not be a mathematician to figure out that town's odds aren't very good on this.

If you lynch out of the pool of potential scum, we have a 40% shot of hitting scum without being in LyLo (I'm SK, Seil is IC, and five left with two mafia). If we miss, I shoot and the Mafia presumably shoots town (My 1 shot BP is still intact as far as I can tell). My shot will be aimed at who I think is scum; presumably this means that out of the pool of four, I have a 50% chance of hitting. If I hit town, it leaves us with myself and a townie; I'm one shot BP and we can force a no lynch from the scum. The Mafia shoot the VT; I have a 66% chance of hitting scum. Then, this leaves us with a survivors dilemma where it's myself vs mafia vs town, where we presumably draw; town can't lynch me without causing a loss, Mafia can't lynch town without losing, and therefore I will be unable to engineer a lynch on anyone. Now, any of you out there who are smart enough to figure out I would win this due to my 1 shot BP, I commend you; but then think of the implications of this. If Town goes with my plan, Mafia HAS to shoot at me instead of Seilkops; anything else results in their loss.

Town is in a rough spot; I'm offering you a deal for today where basically I'm saying you have a much higher chance of getting a draw by lynching aiming for Mafia and letting me do my night magic (likely absorbing a shot aimed at Seilkops and maybe being able to hit scum) in exchange for my life today.

The alternative to my plan is two day LyLo where you must lynch correctly both times, with Seilkops and myself as SK dead and only the VT claims to work it out. Your choice; high chance of a draw and safety through not lynching me, or low low chance of a win by lynching me today.

I understand this is a complex situation; impulse, no doubt, would lead you to attempt to lynch the claimed SK. But I'm asking you to work out the math and realize it's low risk of me winning with much better risk of an eventual draw, or a quick loss to the Mafia.

Also anyone trying to quicklynch me is probably Mafia, just a heads up.

[solidstate]

Lol. McStab ruins my fun of outing him with math by outing himself. Alas.

It should go without saying that

listening to advice from a claimed SK is probably the stupidest thing anyone can do, ever.

[McStab]

All your math's disappeared now that it doesn't suit you solid.

Fact is, odds of town lynching correctly when it's 2/5 is 40%; then, assuming you win the weighted coin flip you just voluntarily took by not listening to me, you are taking another 33% chance.

Mind figuring out the math on winning both a 40% and then 33% draw?


Or you take my plan, we lynch from the VT pool which forces scum to take a shot at me and my 1 shot BP (or else they essentially take a loss in the endgame) leaving Seilkops alive, and giving me a shot at the Mafia.

If I happen to hit Mafia, then you end up lynching me and take your chances in a much more favourable LyLo; alternatively, you can rest assured knowing that the Mafia will have to kill me, possibly crosskilling, and town winning tomorrow night or through a PoE LyLo.

I'm offering town a better chance at a win then you get by lynching me, a better chance at a draw by not lynching me, and it gives me the only chance I have (albeit slim) at this point in the game. Win-win for us, losing proposition for Mafia.


Or you can go with your gut instincts, lynch me, and go with the odds of winning consecutively 40% and then 33% situations. I hardly think my option is worse for town than that, and offers much more benefits.


To use the term that solid stated (punny, eh?) "It should go without saying that

listening to advice that gives you a 13% chance of victory is probably the stupidest thing anyone can do, ever.

Following the plan that Mafia will put forth regarding lynching me today: 13% chance of winning those two LyLos consecutively. Following my plan: Helluva lot better odds than that. As for "why wouldn't McStab just go after town", well, assuming I could even deliberately aim for town as opposed to Mafia, it makes no logical sense; I lose if the Mafia continue on their path without getting at least bloodied.

[McStab]

In case any of you didn't get that, lynching me gives town a 13% chance of winning. So yeah, Solid, who's already established and boasted about how he's good at math, is now deciding he wants to take those odds simply on the principle that I'm the SK.

[McStab]

And I'm not falsifying that percentage by the way; after this massclaim we know every role in the game; there's an SK, Goon, Godfather, IC and three VTs. I'm the SK, the IC is known to everyone, and there's five claimed VTs. You lynch me it goes to a Goon, Godfather, and three VTs (following the presumed Mafia killing of Seilkops) leading to a 3:2 LyLo where town needs to lynch correctly (2/5 or 40% chance) and then the next day lynch correctly (1/3 or 33% chance). Calculate those consecutively and you get a 13% town winrate.

[Cartographer]

Well this sure bruises my ego... I am glad you claimed. I would like to join a partnership with you.

We lynch Zab, you kill Nacho?

I am at a loss of who in DDD/Solid is scum. I have town reads on them both.

[Cartographer]

Oh wait only 2 mafia...

Hmm that's a little trickier. I still advocate a Zab lynch. Not sure on Nacho kill though...

[Cartographer]

Did you kill Rainbow?

[solidstate]

Notice that I'm not voting for you, scumtard. The 87% figure is accurate, and the math I was talking about had nothing to do with that, it was proof for the MC5T setup (based on odds of hitting 5/5 VTs vs 5/7 VTs, which are vastly different).

My post was to highlight the fact that you are scum and therefore no longer part of a discussion among the town. No one should listen to anything you have to say, our decisions from here forward should be made with 0% acknowledgment of your input, and its a shame this forum doesn't have an ignore function because we would be well-advised to all turn it on.

Following this post, I will never acknowledge your text in any way for the rest of the game and I suggest everyone follow suit. He's an asshole besides, so it will make the game more enjoyable and maybe he'll stop posting.

[Cartographer]

If he's SK, why wouldn't we listen to him?

[McStab]

Right now I'd be a little happier with Solid either getting lynched by you or shot by me, but I could go for Zabriel or Nacho too. Personally leaning more on Solid-scum than either Zabriel or Nacho, Solid knows his math and this should've led him to either:

A) Demand a massclaim yesterday (optimal townplay)

B) Realize my plan has better chance of success

Zabriel and Nacho have both been acting scummy (and you with your claim was weird yesterday as well, but I actually think weird things like that are more likely town simply out of virtue that it didn't change anything and came out of nowhere) but Solid's skillset and play is so subpar for what would be expected from him in this math-intensive setup that I think he has to be scum. I was trying to push for his lynch yesterday but Doom came out of left field with that and gave me an opportunity to maybe lynch dumbscum and definitely avoid a massclaim.

So yeah, I want Solid either lynched or dead, and can go for Nacho or Zabriel as strong second choices.

[McStab]

I'm an asshole because I'm pointing out your failure to follow basic math by refusing my advice? You've gone awfully defensive over this Solid. Aside from that I'm still contributing to discussion; I may be temporarily working with you but I'm not letting you have all the power in this alliance.

Yeah, I killed Rainbow Night One, I had no real motivation to kill Inte (he was my staunchest supporter) and RBD would never let the massclaim skip past Day Two. Last Night I killed Bitmap because he claimed he had a way to break the setup, meaning I was pretty sure he had me figured out as SK. Once he flipped One Shot Cop though I knew I couldn't avoid the massclaim so I pushed it today.

[solidstate]

If he's SK, why wouldn't we listen to him?

You understand that the SK isn't a town-aligned role, right? Just because he doesn't win with the Mafia doesn't mean he shares our interests. He has no special information on who the mafia are. He also admitted he tried and failed to hit scum last night (and maybe the night before as well) so his scumdar isn't particularly good either.

This isn't to say we should lynch him. We shouldn't, at least today.

[solidstate]

For my own sake, I think I'd still probably prefer Zabriel.

I'm not aware of a standing case on Nacho beyond general style (and weren't some people fingering him as SK?), I still have a light town read on Carto (definitely diminished by the vig gambit - and please stop talking about an 'alliance' with the SK), and while I don't have much from DDD's play, I have a strong associative feel between Azusa and RBD and AJ on day 1, so I have a feeling the slot is town.

[McStab]

False and false. I shot people who had ways to break the setup and out my claim; I was working to delay the massclaim and keep town in the dark.

But yeah Solid, if you're willing to work with me I could compromise on a Zab or Nacho lynch. I'll probably still shoot you tonight (no offense, I just think you're scum) but if your dayplay is willing to work in my interests then I can settle on not lynching you today.

[McStab]

Vote: Zabriel

And call it whatever you wish Solid but you're still working with the SK; I think I'm gonna use the word

alliance

so that I can troll you while both of us are still around

[zabriel]

Well, I've already claimed, so I don't really have much left to defend myself with unless you count my avoidance of the DY wagon as being townish.

I'm going to say don't lynch Nacho, because I think that Bitmap used his one-shot investigation on him. He stated in absolute terms that Nacho is town and that if he explained he'd look scummy. I'm guessing he felt a 1-shot cop claim would look pretty scummy given what we were working with.

I'm thinking about the whole deadly alliance thing here. McStab knew that he was going to be outed today, so scum claim makes sense. If we let him live and we mislynch today we're down one townie, then mafia either kills a townie or burns a shot on McStab so they have a shot at killing him. Then McStab kills somebody.

5 VT claims. Assume two scum. Mislynch today and it's 2 and 2. If Mafia kill the IC, scum outnumber town between the two factions. If McStab hits town instead of scum we're at 1 townie, 1 sk, 2 mafia. Lone townie becomes kingmaker. Lynch McStab, Mafia endgames town. Lynch mafia. One person from each faction left. Mafia shoots town, McStab shoots mafia. McStab Win. Mafia shoots McStab, McStab shoots town. Mafia ties with SK. Mafia shoots McStab. McStab shoots Mafia. Town has no means of killing SK, but SK still has night kill. SK win.

If McStab does hit mafia and mafia hits the IC we're at 2-1-1. Lynch He's not going to let this happen. If mafia burns the shot on McStab we're 3-1-1, which could end with scum shooting each other and town win outright. Each scum could shoot a townie and we get stuck in a kingmaker.

One way or another, we HAVE to lynch scum today. If we lynch mafia today, mafia either shoots town or burns a shot to be able to kill McStab the next night. McStab shoots town because he loses if mafia dies, and let's face it, he's going to shoot the IC because if his reads are wrong and he hits mafia he loses. So we have either 3-1-1 with a non-bulletproof SK or 2-1-1 with a bulletproof SK. 3-1-1 McStab is going to push a town lynch, because that'll take town into 2-1-1 at night. Mafia shoots SK, SK shoots Mafia. Town win. Mafia shoots town. SK shoots town. Scum tie unless they shoot the same townie, then town kingmaker. SK shoots mafia. Mafia shoots town. SK-Town tie.

[McStab]

1. Even if Bitmap used his one-shot investigation on Nacho, we know we're dealing with a Godfather. So yeah I can buy that he used the investigation; it still shouldn't clear him.

2. Your spec on my plan being bad: First, it requires a mislynch today (if we lynch in the VT pool odds are 40% success). Then it requires me missing Mafia (who, I think everyone can agree, I have an interest in killing as well). That should be a 50-50 shot. Even after that, it requires Mafia to choose to shoot IC and effectively give me another two nights to kill them; my bet would be Mafia takes the shot at me and tries to entice town to lynch me the next day, with the kill as a backup if town decides against it.

Furthermore, does it surprise you that my plan has a way for me to win? It shouldn't. My objective is to win and I intend to play towards it. But at this juncture, you either make a deal with me or you take your shot at the 13% odds. I think that all the things that need to happen for town to lose in my plan are less than 87% likely to happen; ergo, my plan is the best for town-motivated players.

3. You see the beauty of my plan is it gives you some extra time. Even if I shoot wrong and you mislynch I get another night phase to try and even the score; chances are this confrontation between myself and the mafia could result in a town win.

Fact is, that, while I appreciate you going through all the variables, you're acting as though my plan is a ruse to get me to win. At this point, I'll honestly tell you that my plan has a chance of me winning. What every town player really needs to evaluate is:

Does the jumble of possible endgame scenarios that exist as a result of McStab's plan have a higher than 87% likelihood of town loss? If the answer is no, then you go with my plan. If the answer is yes (hint: it isn't) then you lynch me today and I misjudged all of your mathematical ability.


Btw I'm calling a Zabriel-Nacho Mafia team right here. The whole little thing at the start "I think Bitmap used his investigation on Nacho" when it's apparent we have a Godfather rubs me the wrong way, particularly when Zabriel and Nacho were huge enemies yesterday.

So yeah, lynch ahoy at Zabriel.

[zabriel]

EBWOP: Dammit, tap-to-click. I was still editing that. Ignore anything that talks about scum-town tie.

Okay, so lots of things. Back on that 3-1-1, we could just lynch McStab, and then go into 2-1 with unknown mafia and play the game there. Or try to lynch mafia and get an easy win at the risk of a mislynch.

We know what happens if we lynch McStab now.

The ideal situation right now is if we can lynch mafia. PoE has me seeing Carto/DDD as mafia. I've explained my Nacho-town read. I'm feeling town on SS, because I feel that his reaction is genuinely town-motivated, and it's currently in McStab's best interest to push a mislynch, so him expressing interest in SS is enough for me.

VOTE: Carto