Open 453 - SCIENCE! ( Game Over! )

[Rainbowdash]

Vote Voided

[Rainbowdash]

I would be moving my vote here but its already in the right spot.

[Rainbowdash]

I would be moving my vote here but its already in the right spot.

Oh?

Yeah.

You arent paying attention so far. Plus really bad RVS vote and possibly worse reaction to my vote. Why still voting CES anyways?

[Rainbowdash]

You arent paying attention because Riss hasnt answered the last question from CES that directly, only the jokey one. Her other response seems to just avoid taking a straightforward answer. Why wait for me to call you on not moving a vote for you to move it? I could guess reasoning to the move but timing is way off.

Some RVS votes are bad. In a game thats strong going out of your way to declare it RVS and taking the 'hasnt confirmed' path I dont like much.

Your reaction to mine was just really unexpected and just bugs me. Its hard to really describe but when I saw that response it was that wince type response.

[Rainbowdash]

So she answered the question. Whether or not her answer is a good one is irrelevant to that point, so don't try to make a point out of thin air. (on the topic on how good or bad her answer is, I agree that it's bad and she should've been more straightforward in her answer)

Basically going "I dont know" is not answering a question.

Why wait for me to call you on not moving a vote for you to move it? I could guess reasoning to the move but timing is way off.

Would keeping my vote on CES have made you feel better?

Between Riss posting last and me asking why you are voting CES you posted. Why did you not move your post at that point? You sidestepped my question.

I was the 3rd person to post in-thread. And how is something that's factually true (CES being the only one who hadn't confirmed when Venmar opened the thread for D1) a bad reason to vote something or a reason to dislike?

Oddly enough, yes I dislike the reason and actually think that not confirming if possibly an alignment tell wouldnt be a scumtell because mafia also have daytalk. No need to prolong confirmation stage for anypony.

Plus the whole post reads as heavyhanded. Comment to Robo, comment to Equinox, comment to Riss, vote on CES, immediate comment to me after that. Its one of those things that just doesnt feel right.

Your reaction to mine was just really unexpected and just bugs me. Its hard to really describe but when I saw that response it was that wince type response.

Welp, I can't really help that. Other than hoping you don't stick those flygirl hooves anywhere near my face.

It still bugs me. Its like that comment that when you are having a conversation with someone it just one of those things that maks you go "wait... what?".

[Rainbowdash]

Some of these votes need to be clarified as serious or not. By some that means basically all.

[Rainbowdash]

So yeah, we are not lynchng Robo who is very very likely town at this point. I can point to the tell I see but I really would rather the wagon just drift away without having to out anything.

@VM - Why did you vote Riss anyway?
@Robo - Do both of us a favor and vote already.

[Rainbowdash]

You are still voting Robo. You should stop that.

[Rainbowdash]

You are still voting Robo. You should stop that.

No.

He. Is. Town.



I am very serious about this.

Town. He hit tell. Strong tell is strong, stronger for us if scum didnt see it and continue to not see it. Ive had this tell go south once I can remember. Its stopped mislynches every other time.

I know you probably arent town, but if you are town. Move the vote.

Either way others should be voting VM.

[Rainbowdash]

@VM - There is a point where towntells can outweigh scumtells. Robo is town for something, I do not want to say what it is because if scum dont see it, telling them is needless giving them of stuff. Besides, your points 1 and 3 are reaching... the way you word 3 really bugs me too.

Now that the two you sheeped have moved, what are your thoughts as to what exactly is going on? I just see you clinging to a dead wagon that the rest of us are basically saying town for

reasons

and not wanting to move on. If you are sure Robo was scum... was he getting bussed? Was a partner defending him? basically who else is scum in that case?

Also has your read on Riss changed at all? What do you think of those on your wagon.

The whole Riss thing really just is making me uncomfortable. VM has voted the new player and the one that would probably be argued as a little weaker then the rest, the second vote on a hard sheep and the first one only when pointed out that he was sitting on a RVS. I just get the feeling of scum not wanting to overextend or something along those lines. VM is playing it very safe and trying his best to not get anypony called town here.

@CES - You are being quiet on VM. Thoughts there?

[Rainbowdash]

@VM - Do you have any strong TOWN reads?

unvote

Just for now, this may be back soon depending on what this conversation brings up. If you are on now a mini-convo would be nice as im only going to be here another 20 minutes or so for now.

[Rainbowdash]

Rainbowdash, who's scum besides Voidedmafia and why?

Thats one of the reasons im slowing down here. Feel like im jumping a few checkpoints. Plus there may be something about VM that im looking to get answered in a roundabout method.

VM has a half decent point about Riss, I thought it had been at least 24 hours since she had posted. Same time im just not feeling a scum read there at all, even with what sorta holds water due to it not really making sense with my other reads.

CES? I really am not too sure at this point since ive been going back and forth inbetween stopping a wagon I dont like and trying to get one I do like going. Anything else really is just gut and a large pool that is very fluid once you take VM and Robo out of it.

[Rainbowdash]

Anything else really is just gut and a large pool that is very fluid once you take VM and Robo out of it.

Well, might be a good idea to run with your gut, then, since I'm fairly sure Voidedmafia ain't it.

Answers to my question should solve this for me either way. I see something but I want to prod more at this one since im making too many asumptions to be happy with.

[Rainbowdash]

Okay im going to agree with quite a bit of the recent reads being posted and still cling to my Robo read who while I can probably strengthen it later in the game (if not I hope somepony sees what I do and baits traps just incase my tell is failing) or he gets caught if he is scum, still almost positive he is town though.

VM with his response actually did hit the tell I saw though so im going to give on that one and almost am willing to just listen to him or his town reads and sheep here.

@Equinox - How long have you had your current scum reads?

[Rainbowdash]

@Equinox - How long have you had your current scum reads?

That should be town reads, length of time of scum reads not important for what I am seeing here.

May have caught scum in the most indirect manner possible.

[Rainbowdash]

Well at least the answer from Equinox vaugely rules out Riss-Equinox I think. Im not sure how it benifits that pairing when they already would be in a tight spot to not have Riss "somehow" suddenly understand that information unless this is one of the more unique busses ive ever seen. Not getting the tell serves no favors to Riss.



Sooooooo....

While it would be awesome to end this right here, im not sure its the best move since im still trying to evaluate things. I like my town read on Robo more in light of recent events, even though at this point all the traps have basically gone *poof* outside of a single pairing. Still like my tell though.

If my tell is *right* though, maybe this isnt what needs to happen.

Let me think on this, I like scum chances here, but am not blown away by it.

[Rainbowdash]

@Robo/Tierce - What is your current read on VM?
@CES - Do you really think Riss-Equinox is a logical pair with the way the last couple pages went?

Out of curiosity, does anypony think they know my towntell on Robo right now? I just really have to think there is some way to do more pairing deduction here and if somepony is on the same page, it may be one of them.

[Rainbowdash]

@CES - Do you really think Riss-Equinox is a logical pair with the way the last couple pages went?

Definitely less sold on it (as was vaguely implicit in my last 2 posts?)

Just trying to get points across. Im against it to the point I am not sure which of Equinox and Robo I would vote if Riss is scum. The play of Riss is just so detached from Equinox them not talking at all is the only way they can feasably be partners here.

UGH

@CES - What do you think the chance of Equinox being town here is? A whole lot of how much im able to explain stuff rides on that. It may not be a way of winning that gains friends but its a way of winning I think if I can get a solid town read there.

[Rainbowdash]

Things are flying over my head. And it's not the first time this month I have just given up dying when I'm town, but I can say not once have I ever given up dying when I'm scum. I do give a fight there.

Town reads - go.

[Rainbowdash]

@CES - Do you trust my Robo read?

[Rainbowdash]

Vote Tierce

Thats the lynch then no?

Just logically thats the lynch if im trusting my reads.

[Rainbowdash]

Vote Tierce

Thats the lynch then no?

Just logically thats the lynch if im trusting my reads.

But...But...Tierce?

Three town reads, three remain. I dont think Equinox-Riss are a team for previously stated reasons. Its more or less a default lynch that my reads have backed me into and im definantly dancing all over that "not making friends" line I was talkinga bout, but... unless Robo is scum she is forced to scum. This much PoE day one is something im not used to, but I think it works here and im going to trust my town reads and interaction reads. Plus if she is town, that basically is going to save me from myself this game because it means im very wrong about something.

I think if you can trust me and my Robo defense its the vote to make.

[Rainbowdash]

I wanna know what CES and RBD think.

Invisible line. I like my vote.

Hard to say more, but again, if you think im town Tierce is the lynch because I can almost guarentee you that Equinox-Riss arent scum together to the point that I would probably drop my read on you if Tierce is town. It just would have to be the most convoluted and confusing, pointless bus of all time if they were scum together.

[Rainbowdash]

Its probably the vote unless a reread picks up something major here, miffed this means I moved wagon from scum to scum, but meh... it works.

[Rainbowdash]

Hey DY, whats your read on Equinox?

[Rainbowdash]

He's either Ernst Blofeld or town. According to equinox, he is the only possible last lynch (after me). This puts us in a dangerous position tomorrow. If he is town and wrong, we are screwed. He can use that fact as mafia to weasel. I suggest we put him on chopping block today so the weaseling doesn't happen at LYLO.

So who is TOWN to you then? So far it seems you have just called VM scum and Equinox WIOFM-y scum or something.

[Rainbowdash]

@RBD: Whoever is CES's mason partner is confirmed town if they claim today.

Ok, i understand i am the lynch for today, but I'm not scum, so you'd best figure out who to lynch after me.

These two posts make little to no sense together... but that VM vote... really the only thing stopping a hammer. Its making me just unsure of myself enough to keep trying to see if im missing something bigger.

[Rainbowdash]

To put it vaugely because of that line... it feels uninformed.

Everything else points there and I think its just going to take me getting over the oddness of the vote, but it just is not at all like I expected and thats just causing me a little pause because its so similar to why I voted Tierce because of Riss-Equinox stuff.

[Rainbowdash]

I think it basically comes down to if Tierce figured it out or not. If she did, I really dont this DY is scum because why not tell him if for no other reason than future kills? Buck "acting natural", in almost all cases a F3 with no mason is better. If she didnt figure it out, or has it wrong, then I think DY is scum. Really im not sure if anything DY says case wise is going to change my mind, I just need to look at really what the chances of me being wrong about a read are here and progress. Yes WIFOM but its just making me a little uneasy over the whole thing.

I will probably vote in the next 48 hours either way. Right now im definantly trending to a DY vote though as I dont see him saying "I am the lynch" at the same time as asking for the mason claim. Its almost enough to instantly override my paranoia, but I just want to be sure.

[Rainbowdash]

Ok, D3 with no mason is better from which perspective?

I changed my mind in any case. The mason should keep quiet. I still don't understand how those two statements are mutually exclusive though.

Rhetorical question I hope?

Your statements are somewhat exclusive since #1 says "I am going to be lynched" and #2 says "mason should claim". As you obviously are claiming VT, you would essentially have been trying to expose the mason letting scum choose what endgame they want with as much information as possible. Or simpler, you are scum.

@DY - Is the Robo read something you can explain?
@Equi - Yes I see... but if he is scum he is doing an awesome job of making me bite on WIFOM. Look at his reads! I have a hard time believing he is scum from them.

Ugh this is sick. I have written up a vote for DY then deleted it probably five times in the last half hour. The problem is what DY being town would mean for other reads really. Then again the D1 move was based almost all on PoE and that worked. Maybe this is just different like that or something.

I guess consider this intention to vote DY. I dont like the vote but I cant come up with anything better even when im trying to force things.

[Rainbowdash]

Whatever.

I think at this point im really only avoiding doing what I know im going to do either way for lack of finding anything better even when I try and force myself to make a case. Most of what im hung up on even can be explained away by DY just not seeing what is out there I think, which could explain the play of Riss and Tierce some as well. Maybe my fear is that it just feels too simple, but that probably shouldnt effect my will to vote since simple does usually work.

Vote DY

[Rainbowdash]

This is stupid. Its now strong town reads vs town read and I still seriously have a hard time even trying to force a case on somepony. I dont think I can really use any VM-CES tells too much because that was obviously the mason pair since D1 and was a major factor in having Tierce be the PoE type lynch day one.

@Equinox - What was your reasoning to vote Tierce day one?

I seriously almost want to just vote Equinox here because I just cannot for the life of me see Robo being scum here. Problem is I feel like I have to first assume Equinox is scum to make any sort of point that im not laughing at myself for bringing up. Day one from Robo though is just so ungodly town I cant get over it, even remove the town tell he hit - Tierce and him as scum after D1? I just do NOT see it.

[Rainbowdash]

Vote Equinox

Yeah I think doing anything else is just delaying for no good reason.

My question to Equinox still stands though regarding the Tierce vote. I saw the VM-CES pairing and having Robo town left it at Equinox-Tierce-Riss as possible scum. With Riss getting wagoned and obviously having no clue who the masons were hurting their position quite a bit, it ment that other scum probably did not know who the masons were either. Equinox however like me knew the mason team, so why would Equinox not help her partner out by just feeding them information that would stop them getting wagoned hard? This ment that no matter which of Riss and Equinox were scum, it should be with Tierce. Its also why I had to be vauge because it relied on the fact that VM-CES were masons.

Thats what the "bizzare bus" would have been, Equinox not helping their partner through daytalk when she didnt stand to gain enough town credit to win if Riss was lynched to win the game, and Riss suddenly getting or something like that the mason team helped her. It would have been a bus where the bussing scum gained little to nothing because town cant intentionally withhold info from scum.

Really I think thats my best case for the Equinox lynch is I am town in that I saw the lack of Equinox-Riss as a possible scumteam and got Tierce lynched because of that, when doing basically anything else led to the Riss lynch. Its backwards from the normal cases, but I feel anything I actually make as a case isnt that good.

[Rainbowdash]

Seriously why cant I ever be on same team as Equinox it seems

[Rainbowdash]

Don Dashie is back.

You can post the QT if you want. I think most of the discussion was if I should pull the bus that I did because its absolutely something I would have done there as town given the masons were obvious and who noticed it. The Robo tell was my VT one where early on comments were such that he was going to be VT or scum and I knew he wasnt scum... it also gave a good faux mason partner for me that may get a reaction out of real masons and have any VT back off a bit.