Open 446: C9++ (Avast! Viruses!) - GAME OVER

[Aunt Jemina]

Hello, dearies. If people could give me a summary of the game so far, along with what they think the setup is and who they suspect, it would greatly ease the strain on this old lady's eyes. I'll be reading much, but since you are counting on me, I need to get as much done in as little time as possible, so cooperation will help a lot.

[Aunt Jemina]

Can I assume that everyone here has claimed? It would help me a lot to know for sure.

[Aunt Jemina]

On a quick read of the last few pages, I'm thinking that Cartographer is the last scum. DDD was killed thinking zabriel was town, and it appeared as if he thought Nacho was sweet as well. This has been just a quick little skim, though, so it is far from definite.

[Aunt Jemina]

Carty, deary,

Yeah I killed Rainbow.

I take it that this is what you're basing the inte-is-a-scumkill theory off of, correct?

But could you then explain to me why Stabby has any reason

not

to lie as scum?

[Aunt Jemina]

Btw I'm calling a Zabriel-Nacho Mafia team right here. The whole little thing at the start "I think Bitmap used his investigation on Nacho" when it's apparent we have a Godfather rubs me the wrong way, particularly when Zabriel and Nacho were huge enemies yesterday.

This reminds me of the same all-or-nothing play I just had in my last game. Stabby here looks like he's going for the win: to get somebody other than his scumbuddy lynched.


Carty, deary, my point is that you don't know who killed who. Stabby is claiming it was the scum killing inte, but how do we know that it wasn't the SK killing inte and the scum killed Rainbow?

[Aunt Jemina]

Reading inte's iso, the ending of it was devoted to Applejack, not to Nacho. Before that, it was Stabby. Before that,

i didn't want apple to be lynched today (preferably cartographer or

maybe

DY) but at this point switching would not benefit my reads

inte was more suspicious of you, carty.

Going through the other dead...Rainbow's last mention of a living player besides Stabby was also suspicious of you, carty.

unvote
Vote Cart

Bitmap trusted Nacho, and might have had a sweet result on him.

Scum + SK: Solidstate, DDD, Zabriel, Carto

And for that matter...

2.)

I am not at the point where I believe Cartographer’s retraction of his claim that he killed Rainbowdash. His Day One play makes his frustration with Rainbowdash evident.

Cartographer: you've a single chance to return to your claim of Vigilante and or Serial Killer. If you try 'n revert back to either claim later in the game, Ah'll assume you are running a scum gambit.

3.)

Cartographer, I will point out that Vigilantes do not always counter-claim other claimed Vigilantes. After all, Vigilantes (unless they have no more shots) have a way to deal with counter-claims they don’t believe the following Night. Furthermore, depending on what kind of Vigilante you were claiming, – which you had not spelled out –, then your claim (if true) might have actually helped confirm you in their eyes (i.e. if the other Vigilante were a Tier 2 Vigilante).

4.)

Cartographer, why d'ya believe zabriel to be a Serial Killer as opposed to a Mafiate?

In Carty's favor, this same post contained an FoS to Nacho, but Glados was showing clear suspicion at Carty's claim, and for thinking zabby was an SK.

In summary, 4/5 of the dead town had suspicions on Carty. DDD

looks

like he suspected Nacho, but it's not clear. I think this old lady has a little more work than anticipated, since the only way I'm going to be certain is with a read of the thread, but I'm a good 75% on Carty being sour.

Carty thinking zabby is an SK would fit with Stabby also thinking zabby's the SK based off of stabby's way of treating zabby.

[Aunt Jemina]

Cartographer's fakeclaim was bad and I really have no clue what compelled him to do it,

it seems weird even for scum

This line is of particular interest to my eyes. He pushes DY for fakeclaiming, but not Carty for his fakeclaim; carty's fakeclaim was confusing and "weird", but despite being "bad", is not considered sour. His interactions with Carty are the exact same type of distancing I just experienced in my last game, with regards to Sally and Huntress's slot, with the same progression: distancing, but ultimately keeping away from lynching each other, and ultimately making a play for the win. (In this case, trying a zabby lynch.) The trick's even older than I am.

[Aunt Jemina]

Skimming Carty's iso, I confirmed the exact interaction I suspected would be there if Stabby were scum--defense in some places, distancing in others, but despite hard pushes on Stabby, never putting stabby in danger of death. The switch from stabby to defender shows one instance of this.

This old lady is a little bit tired from exhaustion already; the body does not work as much when you get to be my age. I need sleep before I tackle the whole thread, but carty's looking worse and worse.

[Aunt Jemina]

Carty, deary, that is precisely why I am reading the thread. As a nice old lady, it's my job to be impartial. It's simply that what I'm seeing is heavily pointing your way for being sour. For instance, your predecessor's replacing out looks like a replace due to being scum under pressure, considering less than a month later Sivvy was back to playing games. Add in your entrance post leaving a bitter taste in my mouth and your voting of Nacho combined with my womanly intuition and you're just the person who looks most sour. I'm still reading, so I'm not willing to make that call yet, but your posting is not making a strong case for you being sweet at all.

[Aunt Jemina]

We can kill Nacho later. McStab dies now.

Carty, deary, I want you to answer me this: Why was my slot not killed, despite being confirmed town? When he clearly had suspicion on Nacho. Why did the scum kill an unconfirmed player compared to me?

[Aunt Jemina]

Mmm, I'm thinking Carto is looking like very scared scum right now. I'm question whether we should lynch him today though, since McStab is conf-scum.

As far as this old lady can tell, it makes no difference. If we lynch Stabby and are wrong about it being Carty, then scum win in lylo. If we lynch Carty and are wrong, then we lose today rather than tomorrow. If we lynch Stabby and Carty's scum, we win tomorrow, and if we lynch Carty with him being sour, Stabby's already lost.

But I would prefer you give me the time to read. I'm an old lady; this does not go quickly.

[Aunt Jemina]

Actually, I just realized something. Stabby's most likely a goon, but he could be the godfather. If he were, then it'd greatly increase Nacho's chances of being town.
VOTE: Stabby.

I haven't finished reading, but we should still be lynching the sour player first, for confirmation.

[Aunt Jemina]

As an old lady, I am slow to read, but I have gotten up to page 13. The picture becomes clearer with each page. In my last game, check the interactions between the two scum slots. It's exactly the same type of interaction I see from Carty to Stabby. He's mentioned stabby a lot in his posts, yet they're never pushing Stabby as scum.

His posts remind me of the olden days style of sour-posting, coming across as active lurking. This type of posting continues consistently throughout the pages, in contrast to Nacho, who comes in and immediately tries to get a grip on the game. It reminds me of my own entrance into this game and seems to be how a sweet player landing in would treat the game.

[Aunt Jemina]

It's taken a great deal of time to get as far as I have, so my eyes are getting tired. Through day one, I can tell you that Stabby and Nacho's interactions do not look like those of scumbuddies. Again, the players who have died overnight consistently have painted Carty as being more suspicious compared to Nacho, so the more I read, the more I am convinced Carty's sour.

Working in Carty's favor is how strongly Nacho was defending Stabby, but working against Carty is the very things which on the surface would look as if they work in his favor: the distancing votes they placed on one another that put neither in any serious danger. Carty's accidental hammer of defender doesn't do him any favors, either.

I would prefer to finish my catchup, but I have a very hard time imagining anything other than the Stabby-Carty scumteam. It fits with who lived through the night, it fits with who died during the night.

[Aunt Jemina]

I've got just about ten pages left, but I must point out that Carty's vig claim felt desperate and as if he were fishing for the actual second killer. When he realized it was only going to make things worse, he retracted the claim in an attempt to save himself. However, I'm one of those ancient people who was raised on good ol' Lynch All Liars. Doomy fakeclaiming was bad, but Carty fakeclaiming as town to draw out a vig is even worse.

I don't see the sweet motive, but I see plenty of sour motive. His posts seem desperate and full of backtracking.

[Aunt Jemina]

Then there's this.

We need to put LaL into effect. Doom not taking the shot is suspicious, and Carto's supposed trap was weird as hell and didn't strike me as effective. Does anyone in here feel comfortable with either of them lasting till LyLo?

Stabby supported LaL on Doomy, but the later play quite clearly shows he didn't support it on Carty.

He talked the talk, but when push came to shove, he didn't walk the walk.

[Aunt Jemina]

A doom lynch is necessary, a Carto lynch isn't terrible but isn't that great relative to Doom, and Zabriel may be scummy as hell but he can wait till DY is strung up.

Here, Stabby outlines a clear plan to keep Carty alive for two more days at minimum.

Well this sure bruises my ego... I am glad you claimed. I would like to join a partnership with you.

This old lady thinks that these posts are showing the final nail in Carty's coffin.

1. Even if Bitmap used his one-shot investigation on Nacho, we know we're dealing with a Godfather. So yeah I can buy that he used the investigation; it still shouldn't clear him.

Btw I'm calling a Zabriel-Nacho Mafia team right here. The whole little thing at the start "I think Bitmap used his investigation on Nacho" when it's apparent we have a Godfather rubs me the wrong way, particularly when Zabriel and Nacho were huge enemies yesterday.

So yeah, lynch ahoy at Zabriel.

Stabby tries to induce godfather paranoia on Nacho, while also pushing a Nacho-Zabby scumteam. Carty's completely disappeared from his sights, despite the Lynch-All-Liars attitude that Stabby had the day before.

[Aunt Jemina]

I'm a little bit senile, since I forgot to include this.

Becuase of that fact I'm tempted to say he's actually mafia using this tactic to stay in the game and

try and divert the lynch from his partner

because that at least makes more sense.

This

is why DDD ended up dead. Stabby outlined Zabby and Nacho as scum, diverting attention away from Carty.

[Aunt Jemina]

And I know it's not exactly standard, but I'm going to employ some good points from flipped anti-town since I'm a bit of an eccentric lady.

Actually...

VOTE: Carto

Reasoning:
1) Going way back, the RBD wagon. Nacho's comment about that wagon has since been proven true (mcstab is scum), a second one on it (variety of scum doesn't matter here) is not implausible.
2) Today, McStab said he will lynch me, Zab, or Nacho. The fact that he didn't include Carto is noteworthy whether he's mafia or SK (SK just wants a mislynch, mafia obviously will protect its partner). Also see the next:
3) McStab's fakeclaim came before Carto had massclaimed (they came before DDD had as well, but he'd sort of quasi-claimed accusing McStab). If he was faking SK to keep his partner from getting caught, speaking before the other scum claimed is helpful.
4) All of my town read on him was really residual day 1. Carto's play since then has definitely not improved. The vigilante gambit is just as logical (or even more logical) as an attempt to draw a town counterclaim to get a PR target for the mafia.

I've been doing rereads for associative tells but there's a lot of game out there. I think I'm happy with this for now.

[Aunt Jemina]

Not down with lynching Carto today.

That being said, Carto if you're so convinced that Zabriel-Nacho scumteam exists then put your vote down and don't just lay over and die. Just because you're condemned by Zabriel and Solid (Zabriel being someone you think is scum too supposedly) doesn't mean you're destined to die. Now join me on my wagon and let's end this.

I just want Mafia to die we can always tie with the SK.

[Aunt Jemina]

There anything else we need to go over?

Nope.

Nacho, Zabby, dearies, it's time to vote Stabby.

When he flips scum, you lynch Carty.

No excuses, no last-minute doubt, no hesitation, no second-guessing.
Don't think I'll be dead because I'm confirmed town; the fact that DDD was killed last night shows they don't care about the IC being sweet. When I die, it'll be thanks to me not backing down, because I'm 100% certain that it's Carty.

If I am wrong, you can blame the loss entirely on me, but there's no way Carty isn't sour. Everything fits into place with him as scum.

[Aunt Jemina]

Thank you. And it's been a pleasure to be here. <3