Open 446: C9++ (Avast! Viruses!) - GAME OVER

[zabriel]

Okay. Hi. Just finished reading everything.

Protip: 30 pages of mafia posts in one sitting mostly just gives you a headache. Not even going to try to put up a huge wall of stuff right now.

Basically:

Ponies: I'm feeling town on RBD and AJ. They seem to be playing a clean game.
Nacho: Seems town. Gonna stick there.
Yoshi: Strong town before claim, less town after claim. Tucked in the "we'll see" folder. PEdit: Didn't like the claim request on MS. Just bugs me to have too many claims on D1.
McStab: I'm not really sure. The whole thing between him and AJ helped me form my town read on AJ, but I don't know if he's fake-claiming or just a really unpleasant townie.
Defender: Play has been ass. My vote will probably land here.
Bitmap: Played with Bit before.
Inte: Rather aggressive. Not a huge fan of the playstyle. Not a fan of the AJ tunnel. Not sure.
Solidstate: Been back and forth. I like his last question.

Eyes are bugging out. Stopping for now.

[zabriel]

McStab does have a softclaim. But if he's fakesoft he probably could ride that to d3 on plausible deniability if DY is doctor like he claims, seeing as we have an innocent child and a claimed doc, I'd say those are pretty high on the NK priority list.

I'm sleepy. Defender is butt. I'm okay with that going through.

[zabriel]

Is he at L-2 or L-3?

[zabriel]

McStab doesn't die by NK til night 3 if everybody is honest. He's shady enough that we still might lynch him if we don't get him absolutely clear, so that puts him behind the IC in NK priority, and if the Doc claim is legit, he's gone tonight or tomorrow. So a softclaim buys him until day 4 before he has to start explaining stuff.

[zabriel]

Alright, at least we have a better idea of what we're working with. I'm finding it a little odd that none of our claimed PRs got deleted. DoomYoshi has been a little suspicious, but I can see this being a ploy too. Maybe we should start at the Defender wagon and see what we turn up. We know that at least 2/3 of the Applejack wagon was town. Defender had his own vote on solidstate.

I just realized something. I'm pretty sure the DY claim was legit. The IC's play has been pretty not butt, and he's still alive. To me this implies that the mafia were expecting him to be protected so they targeted off him. There could be another doctor somewhere in the mix, but it seems to me that there would have been a counter-claim or something. It's shaky, I know, but it's enough for me for now.

[zabriel]

No offense taken; look forward to playing with you again.

I'd say the slot is town assuming she follows through with her replacement, but pushing the mass claim idea after claiming to replace out makes me think she has more of an agenda beyond her show of emotion. Don't get me wrong, there may be some merit to a massclaim, I just think it's peculiar that she bothers bringing that up right after she asks to be replaced out. Making the whole vig-SK distinction strikes me as peculiar also, the Mafia would have a better idea as to whether an SK is in the game or not, and so if we find out there is a Vig rather than an SK, I really think this slot should be looked at closely for a lynch.

If you're still that pissed off after like a week since the first comment, it's not my problem, and NORMALLY I wouldn't bring up you replacing out and pressuring you because of it, but when you try and use it as a town-tell (as well as RBD and Azusa, who essentially served as your mouthpieces) it's gotta be treated with a certain degree of criticism and becomes fair game. If that makes you mad, so be it; I haven't done anything that I think warrants an apology.

Nice point about the SK-Vig distinction except that Yoshi made the distinction first. He also assumes that RBD was shot by Vig/SK rather than Inte. You know something we don't Yoshi?

[zabriel]

Can somebody point me to tier info? I'm not really sure what they mean. As far as claims go, I'd like to start with either solidstate or Cartographer.

[zabriel]

Interesting. I hadn't actually looked up the setup, so I've been a bit confused. Now that I've got the wiki open it's making a lot more sense.

[zabriel]

I wasn't on because he was lynched while I was away. I'm well aware that I was in support of the wagon.

Interesting points on Bitmap. I think he's worth a look as well.

[zabriel]

Blowing my mind Yoshi. Blowing my mind. I'm ready whenever we decide to do it.

[zabriel]

Solidstate's math makes sense. DY's post about non-random numbers was just kind of meh. I'm not feeling the Nacho vote so much, but I kinda like the one on Bitmap. He's been sheepy and jumping a lot today. I feel like if McStab is scum he's partnered with DoomYoshi.

Waiting to vote. Not quite sure what direction I want to go.

[zabriel]

Just some relational stuff I've observed. I think Bitmap might be where it's at today though.
VOTE: Bitmap

[zabriel]

Solidstate has made a little more sense lately, and I kinda forgot Cartographer exists.

UNVOTE:

This is actually kind of how Bitmap plays. I had forgotten about that fact for a moment.

[zabriel]

Yeah! I mean, what?

I voted you because you were the easiest to get a feel for. But then I remembered the last game we played together and how it's just kind of easy to want to lynch you. It's gotten some interesting stuff out of the McStab/Solidstate fight too. Coincidental stuff, but interesting stuff. One of the pair is probably scum.

[zabriel]

I'm not sure. It just doesn't seem like a town vs town fight.

[zabriel]

More stupid. In town v town fights you want to kill both of them out of annoyance. In town v scum fights, you want to kill one of them, but you're not quite sure which.

[zabriel]

I've been intentionally vague to see what assumptions and reactions people make, particularly solidstate and McStab. Solidstate is much more defensive than McStab. McStab is staying on target and on the offensive. Everybody is assuming that I've found solidstate scummy. That makes me more inclined to read scum on solidstate.

VOTE: solidstate

I don't exactly understand the whole thing behind when it's best to massclaim, but from what I've been reading it sounds like a thing for tomorrow.

[zabriel]

I fail to see the relevance of the alt question.

Pretty sure what happened: I protected seilkops, McStab protected me.

You kind of threw McStab a line here based on nothing at all. There wasn't any reason to think that McStab protected you in any way since we had two kills last night. Even if he had it wouldn't have mattered since you weren't a target last night. I guess that could be stretched to say scum assumed one shot-doc and went for somebody else, but the phrasing bothers me the more I think about it.

[zabriel]

You've got my join date and knowledge that this is my main account. Do what you will with it.

Scum motivations are WIFOMy, so it doesn't do us much good to do that kind of guessing. Your problems with me seem to be more OMGUS nature than anything else. If nobody stretched we'd have a scum win every time because Mafia isn't debate and it's not a logic puzzle. It's a game where town knows nothing and scum knows who their friends are. It's a game of fucking Battleship. You want to score that first hit, you take some shots in the dark and see what flashes red.

[zabriel]

Doesn't it? I meant that scum do things that seem counter-intuitive and put on a nice show. Bussing, posturing, distancing. Could be a lot of things.

I linked them because I lost my town read on Yoshi shortly after he claimed, and I'm back and forth on McStab. He mentioned the word protect and I was making the connects in my brain. Seemed like a friend thing. But this is Mafia and your friends are evil, so DoomYoshi might just be an evil buddying sort. Or McStab might be a lying liar person. McStab we can sort out with a massclaim, and DoomYoshi will probably draw fire tonight if he's not scum. I feel more inclined to trust McStab than DoomYoshi.

[zabriel]

That's a thing too. That's why I specified that if either is scum earlier before DoomYoshi pressed me for a scumread. I just wanted to note that I was seeing what looked like a relationship. Tomorrow will sort it all out I guess. I'm parking my vote. I've heard enough to feel fine about my vote.

[zabriel]

I've just been watching the back and forth with McStab. More exposure and more recent. Cartographer hasn't posted in a couple days, which is meh, but I prefer to look at active people.

[zabriel]

It was a long-winded response to a question that Yoshi asked about some passing thoughts I had. It was never intended as a case to be made prior to massclaim.

[zabriel]

You're thinking Mafia killed RBD and then Vig shot Inte, Cart? That's a possibility. If we do have a Vig in the mix. That's probably what did happen. That might actually make more sense than assuming an SK did it since it seemed like Inte was the type to go on the block anyhow.

The thing bothering me about Cart and DY right now is the argument over specific factions. People who spend a lot of time chasing after a specific scum faction tend to be scum themselves.

[zabriel]

Tarhalindur Standard Tells. I went on a binge when I first got here, and I make sure to refresh my memory.

[zabriel]

Some things don't change. Just because something is a wiki-tell doesn't mean it's not useful.

[zabriel]

It was just kind of a general feeling that you'd rather having us discussing the possibility of a vig than an SK while DY's case on you revolved around you being the SK specifically, rather than general scum. It was a thought that occurred to me as I started questioning DY's doc claim a bit more.

[zabriel]

Actually agreeing with solidstate right now. Out of that whole thing all I've got is that DY looks like a crazy person.

[zabriel]

It's a topic for another time. Let's not feed the debate.

[zabriel]

Kinda explains the screams of "HOW U KNO THERE IS NO VIG"?

[zabriel]

Easy on the modkill suggestions DY. This game is getting nastier than it needs to be. This is the second time somebody has gone crazy on McStab.

And no, we don't lynch anybody we think is town because you think he's going to blacklist himself because he's pissy about how the day went.

How many known roles do we have now? Doc, Roleblocker, 1-shot Roleblocker, 3 Dead VT, Vig/1-shot Vig, 1 prob VT, 1 IC

That's 9 out of 13. Do we have anything to gain by holding onto 4 more claims?

[zabriel]

So classic SK claims Vig. Hmm.

Planning on shooting tonight Carto?

[zabriel]

Sounds good to me. Let's do this.

[zabriel]

Not going to get much out of my lynch.

I don't appreciate the way you're spinning things Cart. I'm just asking questions and seeing where people are.

[zabriel]

Hmm, you're already wrong about one thing Bitmap.

Carto is getting desperate and misrepping the shit out of me. I've said a few times that inte seemed like he'd be going on the block soon anyway, so it would have been a waste of a kill. If you want to try another argument, please do.

[zabriel]

That last was more an invitation for desperate!Carto.

The assumption you lot are blathering on about:

So classic SK claims Vig. Hmm.

Planning on shooting tonight Carto?

It was an acknowledgement of DY's hypothesis that Carto was fakeclaiming and being the SK. I know there weren't question marks or anything referring back to DY, but you'd think a 'hmm' would get the thinking bit across. I'm interacting with the game and players, poking at things and trying to see what we can find out.

PEdit: The inte bit is coming off of DY's question about prior knowledge, saying that for me to have prior knowledge as you suggested mafia would have had to shoot inte.

[zabriel]

What the actual shit right now? People need to stop changing their damn stories. With fake doctors and fake vigs flying around I'm starting to get a bit annoyed. With two withdrawn PR claims this town is getting a little bit too vanilla.

PEdit: So he could be dead instead of mute.

[zabriel]

That's the fun of WIFOM DY. We can believe that you had no reason to retract it, or we can believe that your reason is that you "have no reason". It's a game of "no, wait. what? he's not serious? is he?"

PEdit: I can see one reason that DY would wait to retract as town. Say he was planning to keep the gambit rolling and draw the N2 fire. A massclaim would fuck with that, so he'd be opposed to it until it makes no sense to delay.

That being said I've had don't trust DY vibes since his Doc claim, so I'm not sure exactly what to believe yet.

[zabriel]

Carto's defense of DY is interesting. I don't want to lynch DY today. I'm not sure about Cartographer. He could be jumping to the defense to keep a townish read on himself, especially after bizarro fake Vig. There's too much crazy going on.

At this point, I'm just kind of feeling Nacho. I don't have much concrete that I can point to right now, just a feeling about it.

VOTE: Nacho

[zabriel]

IF you were to explain why you'd look pretty scummy. Uhm, okay, that makes sense.

[zabriel]

Hmm, GLaDOS.

My opinion of you is based on my opinion of Applejack. Applejack tried to offer as much the process as she could before leaving, which seems more of a town thing to do in my opinion. I'll assume town.

The link to the statement doesn't actually link to the game. It links to a Pokemon webcomic. I don't remember exactly (or actually saying that, but I don't want to check now), but I think my thought process was something like if he were fake-claiming the other scum faction would have nailed him, but since he didn't die each faction believed the claim and assumed that the other faction would target DY. It didn't occur to me that he could be scum and the opposite faction could have bought the claim and assumed that the other would get him, or even not bought it and just left them around to thin out town numbers and have somebody to drive the lynch toward on the next day.

On Applejack's wagon it was kind of a stray thought about how her wagon had been town-driven and with a dead VT and an IC. It was less a comment about Apple's guilt or innocence as it was about McStab. I felt that McStab would be disinclined to leave himself as the sole unaccounted for member of a particular wagon.

[zabriel]

EBWOP: And therefore less likely to be scum.

[zabriel]

In 790, my actual suggestion was to look at the defender wagon. My defense of DY was based on our IC still being alive, which I felt signaled to scum that he was protected last night and scum intentionally left DY alive to get us questioning the claim. Of course that could have been the plan the entire time, so it's meh.

No, it never really occurred to me that Applejack is more likely scum since I've had a pretty solid town read on the spot all game. I didn't mention McStab then because it didn't strike me as important to mention while we were working under the claims we had at the time.

[zabriel]

Well, unless McStab is scum we do have a normal Roleblocker. I'd suggest they not reveal their actions until we massclaim so we don't risk losing them tonight.

[zabriel]

VT. How about we go with solidstate next?

[zabriel]

Well, I've already claimed, so I don't really have much left to defend myself with unless you count my avoidance of the DY wagon as being townish.

I'm going to say don't lynch Nacho, because I think that Bitmap used his one-shot investigation on him. He stated in absolute terms that Nacho is town and that if he explained he'd look scummy. I'm guessing he felt a 1-shot cop claim would look pretty scummy given what we were working with.

I'm thinking about the whole deadly alliance thing here. McStab knew that he was going to be outed today, so scum claim makes sense. If we let him live and we mislynch today we're down one townie, then mafia either kills a townie or burns a shot on McStab so they have a shot at killing him. Then McStab kills somebody.

5 VT claims. Assume two scum. Mislynch today and it's 2 and 2. If Mafia kill the IC, scum outnumber town between the two factions. If McStab hits town instead of scum we're at 1 townie, 1 sk, 2 mafia. Lone townie becomes kingmaker. Lynch McStab, Mafia endgames town. Lynch mafia. One person from each faction left. Mafia shoots town, McStab shoots mafia. McStab Win. Mafia shoots McStab, McStab shoots town. Mafia ties with SK. Mafia shoots McStab. McStab shoots Mafia. Town has no means of killing SK, but SK still has night kill. SK win.

If McStab does hit mafia and mafia hits the IC we're at 2-1-1. Lynch He's not going to let this happen. If mafia burns the shot on McStab we're 3-1-1, which could end with scum shooting each other and town win outright. Each scum could shoot a townie and we get stuck in a kingmaker.

One way or another, we HAVE to lynch scum today. If we lynch mafia today, mafia either shoots town or burns a shot to be able to kill McStab the next night. McStab shoots town because he loses if mafia dies, and let's face it, he's going to shoot the IC because if his reads are wrong and he hits mafia he loses. So we have either 3-1-1 with a non-bulletproof SK or 2-1-1 with a bulletproof SK. 3-1-1 McStab is going to push a town lynch, because that'll take town into 2-1-1 at night. Mafia shoots SK, SK shoots Mafia. Town win. Mafia shoots town. SK shoots town. Scum tie unless they shoot the same townie, then town kingmaker. SK shoots mafia. Mafia shoots town. SK-Town tie.

[zabriel]

EBWOP: Dammit, tap-to-click. I was still editing that. Ignore anything that talks about scum-town tie.

Okay, so lots of things. Back on that 3-1-1, we could just lynch McStab, and then go into 2-1 with unknown mafia and play the game there. Or try to lynch mafia and get an easy win at the risk of a mislynch.

We know what happens if we lynch McStab now.

The ideal situation right now is if we can lynch mafia. PoE has me seeing Carto/DDD as mafia. I've explained my Nacho-town read. I'm feeling town on SS, because I feel that his reaction is genuinely town-motivated, and it's currently in McStab's best interest to push a mislynch, so him expressing interest in SS is enough for me.

VOTE: Carto

[zabriel]

Godfather is a possibility, but even if we agree that it's best to let you live, we have NO reason to trust you or anything that you have to say. You have too much to gain from a mislynch, so any lynch you advocate is super suspect.

[zabriel]

Solid's criticism assumes that you're being honest about trying to shoot scum last night. I assume that you have every reason to push a lynch you think is town to give you the best odds of not losing, and no reason to actually be honest about your motivation for shooting Bitmap.

[zabriel]

I actually had that thought earlier about the possibility of him being mafia fake-claiming SK. That would be bizarre. I can tell you now that if I were mafia I'd actually probably be claiming SK to get him killed today, accepting the lynch tomorrow, and letting my partner charge through.

Right now is makes the most sense for him to push what he thinks is going to be a mislynch, since he's not solely responsible for a mislynch. This game revolves around lying. Even if he thought I was scum he'd push a different lynch like he just claimed to have done with SS. He needs a mislynch today, because as soon as the mafia is actually dead, he's public enemy #1 again.

[zabriel]

I actually had that thought earlier about the possibility of him being mafia fake-claiming SK. That would be bizarre. I can tell you now that if I were mafia I'd actually probably be claiming SK to get him killed today, accepting the lynch tomorrow, and letting my partner charge through.

Right now is makes the most sense for him to push what he thinks is going to be a mislynch, since he's not solely responsible for a mislynch. This game revolves around lying. Even if he thought I was scum he'd push a different lynch like he just claimed to have done with SS. He needs a mislynch today, because as soon as the mafia is actually dead, he's public enemy #1 again.

[zabriel]

Didn't you already ask him that?

[zabriel]

WIFOM Cart. The fact that you "don't care" suggests that you're less town than you insist. As scum your partner would have a night kill, and you KNOW that McStab wouldn't intentionally shoot him because that means town auto-win. Town is going to have to shit gold today to win.

Let's end this.

[zabriel]

Checking in.

I can see your point about SS here DDD. I like my Carto vote better right now I think, but my brain is fried from lack of sleep and the game turning into numbers. DDD's latest seems town-motivated, I'm just remembering Applejack's last words about suspecting scum in her list of supporters. I'm too dead to do this now though.

[zabriel]

Well, since I'm at L-1, the SK is going to hammer me, and' you're probably going to wake up with one townie. Town has been wrong about everything so far because apparently this is a game where people tell stupid lies and fuck everything up. Well, this will be just one more thing.

[zabriel]

Well, since I'm at L-1, the SK is going to hammer me, and' you're probably going to wake up with one townie. Town has been wrong about everything so far because apparently this is a game where people tell stupid lies and fuck everything up. Well, this will be just one more thing.

[zabriel]

No, I screwed up the count. My eyes glazed over for a second. At this point the whole thing is so fucked up that I'm willing to go with it.

VOTE: Nacho

[zabriel]

UNVOTE:

Well, that was a huge failure.

I'm inclined to agree with SS at this point. McStab gets to be a loose cannon crazy right now. I think McStab needs to die today just to simplify thing and keep him from fucking us over. Is there anything else we should discuss while everybody is still alive?

[zabriel]

Nacho is the one who pointed out that McStab wants to die, and it kind of looks like you just called Nacho town there.

[zabriel]

The only thing that I'm wondering about right now is the fact that McStab's vote is parked on SS.

Also, Carto, I'm pretty sure town and SK can't tie unless we have a killing role.

[zabriel]

If we lynch McStab, we're still lynching Mafia. I'm happy with that.

VOTE: McStab

[zabriel]

Okay, that's cool Nacho, but there's a lot of stuff being thrown around here, and my head is getting foggy. I'd rather lynch scum than mislynch. I don't know if you're scum, I don't know if SS is scum, but I do know that McStab is scum.

[zabriel]

The only way we can tie right now is if we have another town liar.

McStab did mention that he has a suspect for SK, so Mafia might shoot him. That could happen.

UNVOTE:

I'm actually thinking about Cartographer again. Suggesting a tie with the SK that we can't actually have is weird, but the whole thing just reeks of selective scumhunting. Think it's possible that he's our SK?

[zabriel]

I'm on a weak connection right now until mine gets fixed, so I'm V/LA for a bit.

Nacho, what do you make of the McStab vote parked on SS?

[zabriel]

Fair enough. Let's see what happens.

VOTE: SS

[zabriel]

Let's take this slow so McStab doesn't quickhammer himself. We got the SK yesterday, so we're still looking for a potential partner and we'll be one townie down tomorrow, so we should probably talk about possible partners while we're all still here.

[zabriel]

Oh McStab. You're so clever.

Cart is tunneling on Nacho pretty hard here. He's been tunneling since yesterday. I guess Seilkops is the only person I can ask for an opinion on this, so Seilkops, I'm wondering, what are you feeling is more likely, that Carto is mafia who wanted to mislynch yesterday so he could have a shot at the SK last night, or that Nacho is mafia who wanted to eliminate the competition?

[zabriel]

I had actually wanted to wait for Seilkops, since the IC is still confirmed-town, and any given day can be his last day with us. Even if he gets replaced, a pair of fresh eyes might help us, even if it's just for today.

[zabriel]

Take care Seilkops.

Okay, do we want to lynch or wait for the replacement and see if that will give us some fresh insight on the game?

[zabriel]

Yep. Waiting on the replacement for now.

[zabriel]

Mmm, I'm thinking Carto is looking like very scared scum right now. I'm question whether we should lynch him today though, since McStab is conf-scum.

If Seilkops was so bad, why are you voting for the person he suspected?

[zabriel]

I suppose we can play it either way. It gets the game done today either way really, because McStab is conf-scum, and the only kill that would make any sense for tonight is Aunt Jemima, so we've gotten all the information we're going to get. I'll hold my vote until we're ready to end the day, since I can see McStab hammering whether Carto is scum or not.

[zabriel]

I'm convinced.

There anything else we need to go over?

[zabriel]

VOTE: McStab

Been great having you with us.

[zabriel]

Alright, I'll wait for you to come back and do that. We've got some time.

[zabriel]

Eh, why not. You do a few strikes against you though Cart. You've fake-claimed, and with the exception of certain people called DoomYoshi, the game's other liars have been fake-claiming scum. You're gonna need to make a damn good case.

[zabriel]

Aunt Jemima made a good call on McStab being Godfather, so I'm inclined to trust her thoughts on Cart and Nacho.

[zabriel]

I'm curious as to why you don't seem to have a vote on Nacho yet.

[zabriel]

Nacho was pretty quick to vote Carto, which means that he's feeling confident about his reads and willing to trust me with the hammer. In my experience scum tend to like to hang back so they can hammer.

Okay, so Carto is seeming kind of obvious right now. I like Aunt Jemima's reasoning. I don't like the fake claim, I don't like how McStab interacted with the fake claim. If for some reason Cart is town, I'm sorry.

VOTE: Cartographer

Let this be a lesson to not fakeclaim a PR in an open game.

[zabriel]

That was actually a pretty good game, and you guys definitely deserved that win. I was actually starting to wonder about you, but in the end I felt that Cart deserved to die more. I still don't think I made the wrong call