Open 490: Donner Party Mafia (Game Over)

[Bulbazak]

Okay, time to get started:



First off, the Meow Mix thing at the beginning of d1 should never have happened. It was stupid, a distraction, and never should have been treated seriously in the first place. Seriously, shame on all of you! Sheesh!

Moving on to my replacement reads. Fair warning: I caught up at the very beginning of the night phase, so I may have forgotten my initial reasoning for some reads. I'll try to briefly go back through the ISOs to help clear them up, but some may still not be as clear as if I started the game with all of you.

DCLXVI: I like this guy. He has a sense of humor, but not to the point where it distracts in scumhunting. Playstyle-wise he remind me of a mild Majiffy, but without all the anti-town stuff (Can't remember which post made me think that.) He's probably town.

Fferyllt: I think I was null on her slot for most of the day phase, but her interactions with Sven give me a town vibe. Going to call her null/town for now.

Goodmorning: I've played 2 games with Morning. One where she was town, and one where she was scum. This is most definitely her scum play. Her replacement read post was not really necessary, and like in Newbie 1305, contained hardly anything of substance. Essentially, her use of "interesting" is filler to make it look like she's scumhunting. And her use of self-meta in post #351 WAS being used to imply that Aus was scum. There's no getting around that. You would not bring that up for any other reason but to imply that the other person was doing the same thing as scum. Period. She's definitely scum, and she needs to be lynched.

Havingfitz: Not sure how I feel about him. His earlier posts do make me raise an eyebrow, but some of his later posts do have a few things going for him town-wise. Null for now until I can read him better.

Malakittens: Town. Her replacement post and the posts afterward are full of genuine thought and scumhunting. She's probably my strongest town read in this game.

Otolia: To be honest, I'm not sure what to think about him. I'm getting scum vibes on a very basic gut level, but there's nothing that I can really quantify them with. I'm willing to admit it may be a playstyle clash, but in this case I'm going to side with my gut. Null/scum.

Svenskt Stål: His name may be hard to spell, but anybody who replaces in with a dancing gif of Dean Winchester gets major props in my book. His posts upon replacing in feel very town. Not sure how I feel about his post #505, and his claim about being the best player in the game was laughable, but I'm more than happy to put him in the town pile.

Syryana: A lot of his reasoning this game is just plain bad, especially his earlier case against Meow Mix. However, he did make a reasonable case against Otolia, and his reactions in that regard scream town. But I'm still not sure, as I get the feeling that he is not as bad reasoning-wise as this game would seem to suggest. Idk, maybe I just need to play more with him in order to get a better read. Null/town for now.

All things considered:

Vote Goodmorning

Lynch the obv. scum first and then work from there.

[Bulbazak]

@Bulbazak

: Your vote on goodmorning is interesting. I would like you to react to the case I made about Cheery Dog yesterday and my reasoning as to why said arguments couldn't be applied on her. (Case on Cheery Dog & on goodmorning Part 1 and Part 2)

I can personally see where CD was coming from in that post, but if it was me, I would have just asked the question and be done with it. I really didn't feel that he needed to vote for you at that point, and it was a bit of an overjustification. I don't necessarily see it as scummy, though, as town can be apt to do that as well, and I do remember having CD as a null/town read, mainly because even with posts like this, he still felt townish to me.

As far as Morning goes, you are right that she can be apathetic when it comes to play. She is not, however, passive. She can be pretty aggressive if she chooses to be. The kicker is going to be whether she'll be aggressive in hunting scum or defending herself.

[Bulbazak]

Unvote

Vote Svenskt Stål

The d1 entrance is not enough to cancel out those scumtells he's dropping. I'm leaving for the day, but I can go deeper into my reasoning when I get back if people want. Just wanted to keep this brief.

[Bulbazak]

Going to quote this and bold the important part, since no one seems to have learned how to read:

Unvote

Vote Svenskt Stål

The d1 entrance is not enough to cancel out those scumtells he's dropping.

I'm leaving for the day, but I can go deeper into my reasoning when I get back if people want.

Just wanted to keep this brief.

You know how many people asked me what my reason for voting Svenskt was before flipping out? 1. Syryana is def. town now. Just saying. And for everyone else: I'm sorry having a life has turned into such a huge scumtell. I'll try to keep that in mind when I have to go live it.

Now to explain. My first post was a general reads post that I do whenever I replace into a game (Which isn't very often.), it's quick, simple, and gives me something to start with before I begin interacting with the players. I had replaced in at the very beginning of n1, and caught up on 20 pages of material in under 24 hours, which means that many of those reads were just general impressions that I wanted to build on, and sometimes I couldn't remember the exact reasons I came to those conclusions. For Svenskt, I remember having a general town feel for him, mainly predicated on his entrance and discussion at the end of d1. Reminder: He replaced in at the very end of the day and really didn't interact with too many people in general. This was all I had to go on, and I used a gut feel to give me my read (They were very spectacular posts, btw.). Only 2 other things that happened before I posted, and that was Svenskt's #505, which I didn't know what to make of it, and his statement that he was the best player ever, neither of which is enough for me to revoke my town read.

And then he started contradicting himself on USC, and although it was strange, I held back, because I thought there might be a good explanation, and I wanted to hear it, which Svenskt provided. For the record, I don't think it's unusual for town to forget stuff. They just admit/accept it and move on. However, Sven didn't do that, and he continued to contradict himself again, and again, and again. Add in the WIFOM and AtE he started flinging around like crazy, and I felt satisfied with moving my vote from Morning, who was not going to give me anything and was not a viable scum wagon.

My thoughts on #505 have solidified as well. I believe it to be not only a huge bit of WIFOM, but it also gave Sven options as far as false claims, in case he needed them. By giving 3 possibilities, he made sure nobody could counter-claim him. However, he's essentially let it slip since then that he is none of them:

Not vig - #549

Not roleblocker - #623

Not dietician - #574

There's also a bit of logic that goes with some of these as well, but I'm sure you get the idea. If not you can just

ask me

.

Nice to see that Otolia caught a lot of the stuff about Sven as well.

Anything else? Or are we done being stupid?

[Bulbazak]

I need to stop being away too long. Otolia is stealing all my thunder... I will say that his questions to the mod likely make him town. They don't feel faked to me, and I think scum would not think to ask something like that.

I spent some time reconsidering my Sven vote after he claimed, and the more I go over it, the more I really don't buy it. Any other game where there was a claim without a counterclaim, I would unvote 100% of the time, but in this game, claims should be suspect due to the larder mechanic. It is just as likely that Sven killed the roleblocker and therefore knows it's a safe claim. Even if he is a roleblocker, he's doing a horrible job. He's been spouting out lines regarding PR's all day. I would expect a town PR to be trying to lay low in order to use their ability in a way best befitting the town, but Sven doesn't. Worse yet, his posts don't come across as a PR who is bad at keeping quiet. They read as someone who is trying to get a PR to out themselves. Again, #505 is especially bad. I've already explained why I don't like the entire 3 claim format. But if you look down at the bottom, he doesn't even consider the possibility for a kill being roleblocked. In other words, he's not considering the basic functions and powers of one of the role he eventually claimed. Post #623 is another one that disproves him being a roleblocker, as I get the sense that he's not really considering it (He lumps it together equally with a double kill and being afk. This should have been a higher possibility for an actual roleblocker, and I doubt a real one would even mention it in this manner in the first place). I tried really hard, but I'm really not seeing Sven being a roleblocker. My gut says he's scum who killed the actual roleblocker, so my vote stays.

One last little nitpicky thing:

We know

auspicious

was town....here is who lynched him:

havingfitz, fferyllt, Bublazak, Syryana, Malakittens, Otolia,

unseencamo

Fitz, I can understand where you're going with this, but I was not in the game for the Auspicious lynch. That was my predecessor: SuperDerp. Personally, I can't say for sure what I would have done in that circumstance, so the list with my name on it is a little misleading in that regard.

[Bulbazak]

I think my vote will land on goodmorning in moment.

Why? For putting you at L-1? Because I don't remember seeing you explain your suspicion of Morning.

[Bulbazak]

Worse yet, his posts don't come across as a PR who is bad at keeping quiet. They read as someone who is trying to get a PR to out themselves.

I've already stated my reservations about Sven's claim potentially being safe if he happened to kill the RB N1 (or have knowledge of the kill results)...so I agree with your reservations. But the point above makes no sense. If Sven knows the RB is dead (ergo a safe claim) why would trying to get a PR to come out (PR=the RB we're assuming he could know is gone?) be an associated concern?

There are 2 other town PRs, the vig and the dietician respectably, both of which make the roleblocker small potatoes for scum PR-wise. I can see scum knowing roleblocker was dead, keeping the fake claim as a safety net, and searching for the other 2 PRs.

Fitz, I can understand where you're going with this, but I was not in the game for the Auspicious lynch. That was my predecessor: SuperDerp.

Nothing misleading....you're in the role now that Superdeclan was in. You both had the same role PM. Sure...you might have done something different but that would be the case whether your role was scum or town. Plus it keeps the list cleaner.

Understandable. My spider-sense just goes off whenever I see something like this.

P-edit: Mala, I'm sure Otolia would say something about him no longer being useful to town, etc., but the fact of the matter is that Sven blew it either way. If he's town, his chances for surviving the night and helping the rest of the town out is now nil, and if he's scum, he needs to be lynched so that we can win. If the consensus is to allow him that opportunity, then I will gladly move my vote back to my primary scumspect, but if not, then this lynch needs to happen, and I can deal with the fallout later if need be.

[Bulbazak]

Unvote

Sven's more recent posts just feel so town. I can't bring myself to lynch that. I think I can wait one more day on this.

Vote Goodmorning

This is a good wagon.

[Bulbazak]

Sven, I had been going back and forth on you for awhile, which was why I offered to unvote if there was a town consensus to. But then I saw this:

Its only WIFOM to people who fail to see that there is value in waiting. If you dont see that then I cant help you. But I hate people using "WIFOM", if you dont like it play chess or something, here you actually have to make decisions based on data and odds and reads and not fear of being outplayed.

Objectively it is your best bet to wait. Offcourse, you will interpret this as me being scum and not wanting to die and that will cloud your objective judgement...which is kinda towny.

Think of it like this, if you dont lynch me the scum have to kill me? No. Should they? Well depends how right I am. They could even no kill and trap me when I say I blocked player x.

Is it WIFOM AS FUCK? Yes. This is the game we play, now make the best decision that you can based on relevant stuff, and not fear.

This felt really genuine and incredibly town, and I just couldn't bring myself to keep my vote on you. I will admit, there's still a chance that I'm wrong, but it's something that can be sorted out tomorrow. For right now, I'm going back to focusing on my strongest scum read.

[Bulbazak]

Well okay.. so you go "happily having me in town" > Die scum > Town.. in 5 pages? I am gratefull but ehum, it sets of alarmbells.

I thought your posting felt very town after you replaced in at the end of d1. It probably should have been a null/town tell, but I liked it enough that I decided "town" was a good enough place to start when I actually started playing. Your play afterward, especially #505, was incredibly scummy. I felt that your claim was more than likely fake, but even so, I struggled with what to do, finally deciding that I would keep my vote where it was for the time being. Your #708 gave me a town vibe, which continued to complicate matters, so I unvoted. You are currently somewhere in the null range.

Also, a lot has happened in the 5 pages (3 days) since I first posted.

We could talk about GM, why is she a good wagon?

Mostly gut and the fact that she is playing very similarly to how she did when she was scum.

[Bulbazak]

Bulba, that means that you have insight to her scum game, please share it and what parts it is that you see here.

Compare her post here with the one here. Both are actually scant on substance and rely more on filler words such as "interesting" to give the illusion of scumhunting. Now compare that to this or this. Notice a difference? The second 2 examples from Morning's town game shows more of a focus on scumhunting and actual content, whereas the previous 2, one of which is from a scum game, do not. My point is, while Morning can be apathetic as both alignments, she is not useless and actually provides thought out reads as town.

[Bulbazak]

My point about the principle of innocent before proven guilty still stands. There is good logic behind that principle. The point is that it is basically impossible to prove that you are innocent of something. A reason court decisions are guilty/not guilty. NOT guilty/innocent.

Except this is Mafia, and that entire concept is thrown out the window. You should be thinking guilty until proven innocent. We get town reads by gathering evidence that they're not scum, aka providing evidence of their innocence. Even given that, no one is ever truly cleared in this game. Why would you even argue such a thing?

[Bulbazak]

The point is, vaguely asking someone to prove that their are innocent and not making a case on them is stupid.

That is my point. That and only that, does anyone disagree with me on this?

Yeah, I actually do agree with that. Having to prove your own innocence is practically impossible, as anything you say is essentially WIFOM. It's for this reason that I don't even include myself in my own reads. Proving someone else's innocence is easier, because you can objectively site evidence of why they're town, but you should never be forced to prove your own innocence.

You chose those posts for my Town meta? Interesting.

I wanted 2 good reads posts from that game. The second one came to mind immediately. Choosing the first one was a little more difficult, as you didn't always state all of your reads. There were a lot of good posts to choose from, but none that could similarly be compared with the 2 previous quotes. I finally chose the other one, because it showed you asking pertinent questions and actually scumhunting, which you didn't do as scum.

his pushes on me have been weak at best

It's not easy when you've given absolutely nothing of substance. All I have is the knowledge that your play is essentially identical to your scum game. Other than that, there is nothing else that can enhance that read or rescind it.

[Bulbazak]

My pet peeve is Burden of Proficiency. Thankfully we haven't seen that this game.

[Bulbazak]

It's more the cocky side of the argument that gets me, as well as discounting other players because of experience.

[Bulbazak]

I hate to admit it, but Fitz is right about previous setups having nothing to do with the current one. In True Love mafia, everybody mass lover claimed, because it was pointed out that the only previous town win came after all the lovers had claimed. Scum won that game rather easily.

[Bulbazak]

Going to do site-wide catchup and decided to start here:

Personally, I don't know how I feel about Otolia's recent posts. His message to town at the end of d2 read as sincere, but some of the posts afterward seem to contradict it. If we had a vig, Otolia should have been the kill last night to spare town the chance of mislynching a VT. The fact that no kill occured makes me think the vig is dead, and that Sven was right about CD being the vig. I'm weary about Otolia calling it a gambit. I could understand a VT putting themself on the line, and giving the town the instructions they did. After all, that's in the town's best interest. I can also see the VT the next day trying to survive longer and scumhunt, because they would know that they are town and they're lynch would not be in the town's best interest. However, I can't see them calling it a gambit and shrugging it off as such. It does not compute.

The one thing I will not consider as a reason to lynch, though, is Otolia's place on the wagon. He was vocal about Sven being scum, and he was one of the early adopters of the wagon, so it checks out. I am, however, suspicious about Morning's place on the wagon. She really didn't give very good reasons for voting Sven in the first place (Her reason was contradictions. It was not a new reason, and it gave her the perfect opportunity to sheep.), and she sat on that wagon for the rest of the day without saying much of anything about it (Again, she sheeped someone else's reasoning, so nothing original.). Add that to my points yesterday, and she is the only scumread I'm certain of.

Vote Goodmorning

I did not like Syryana's hammer at all. His explanation better be really good.

[Bulbazak]

Why didn't you mention Fery's place on the wagon?

I was covering the biggest things that jumped out at me. Ffery's vote is suspect, just like every vote on that wagon after Sven claimed, but a quickhammer is way more suspect than someone who put him at L-2. I have 3 other suspects that I believe deserve more attention than her atm. If you believe otherwise, feel free to convince me.

[Bulbazak]

I had a big response to Syryana, but I think Mala has it pretty well covered. My question to Syryana is this: How can you be certain that all 3 cannibal factions are still in play? You've gone to lengths to explain the 2 kills last night, but you are not bothering to explain why there were 2 kills n1. You are relying on a very certain setup and series of events and are not considering any other possibility (of which Mala offered several). It seems rather shaky to me.

I'm good with a Morning or Syryana lynch, as I feel they're the most likely to flip scum. Otolia wouldn't be bad either, but I still don't think he's the best lynch for today. I have a strong town read on Mala, so that's not happening. Ffery is in the null section atm, so we'll wait and see with her. Personally, I'd like to lynch my biggest scum read, which it seems several people share.

Questions? Comments? OMGUS?

[Bulbazak]

Syryana, every time I go to dispute you, I either realize that you're right, I can't find what I'm looking for, or what I wanted to quote didn't exist in the first place. Therefore I think it best to just post my reads, this time in a more straightforward manner:

Town:
Mala

Null:
Ffery
Otolia

Scum:
Syryana
Goodmorning

We're obviously not going to agree on Mala, as we have 2 opposite reads on her, and I'm not impressed by your case so far.

[Bulbazak]

Now, let me ask you this. Let's assume for a moment you're right, I am some flavor of scum, and I killed CD to make Otolia look bad and either fitz or DCL to make you look bad. Why then, did I lurk all day yesterday? GM decided to push him; I didn't do anything. You decided to push him later after SS claimed; I hopped on for pressure. If indeed I killed CD to make him look bad, why did I not attack? Why did I hammer a possible PR and bring so much attention to myself? What was my motivation?

Hello, WIFOM. How are you?

[Bulbazak]

Otolia, we're essentially in Mylo right now. Your lynch may or may not be the right choice, but I'm not ready to risk it this early in the day. I want to be fairly certain that I'm voting for scum, which is why my vote is on Morning at the moment, although I'm watching the Syryana exchange intently.

[Bulbazak]

You have no opinion on it whatsoever, Ffery?

[Bulbazak]

...it makes my head hurt.

SECONDED

This is fluff devoid of opinion.

[Bulbazak]

Out of everyone, who do you think is more likely to flip scum?

[Bulbazak]

Ffery, as much as I'd like to disagree with Syryana, we should assume that we're in Mylo and make lynching Mafia our top priority. This is the reason why Otolia is probably not the best lynch today. After we lynch Mafia today, we can look in whatever direction we deem fit tomorrow.

[Bulbazak]

Here's what's confusing me: Everyone has a GM scumread in one form or another, but no one is willing to vote her. I can understand her scum buddy not wanting to vote her, although keeping a weak read is great for distancing purposes, but everyone else having scumreads on her slot and not doing anything about it is just bewildering to me. Are everyone's reads seriously that weak? And if not, why is everyone avoiding this lynch?

[Bulbazak]

I'm willing to entertain the notion I might be wrong on Mala. Lynching Otolia today would be a terrible move. Since we're going to have to come to some kind of consensus on a lynch, and most of us agree on GM...
VOTE: GM

Not sure how much I like this vote. There's some opportunism here, and he has an out in case things go wrong.

I also could say that Syr's vote on GM looks survivalist

There's also that.

I think you are also trying to say, but it's very indirect. That you believe GM is scum because everyone has some sort of will to want to lynch him. This makes me think GM is town off that.

Why does that make her town?

What makes you think Bulba is town?

Did anybody besides me catch this 180?

...it makes my head hurt.

SECONDED

This is fluff devoid of opinion.

My OPINION is that Syr's big talky stuff is CONFUSING, DISTRACTING, & USELESS and furthermore is TANGENTIAL to the game at hand.

I have stated my opinion: I am in favour of a lynch on OOO today, just as I have been for the PAST THREE FRIGGING DAYS yet YOU GUYS HAVE IGNORED ME ON HIM OVER AND OVER. HE IS CLEARLY SCUM and with the way Syr is harping on about him... well... seems legit

If you guys really really don't want to lynch OOOOO then at this point I would also be in favour of a lynch on Syr. fff's conversation with Mala has definitely reinforced my Townread on both of them.

If you were so for Otolia's lynch, then why didn't you vote for him on d2, and instead vote Sven and sit on his wagon the whole day?

The sudden shift towards wanting to vote Syryana is making me nervous. It doesn't read as a survivalist will to bus to me.

bulbazak seems very wary

What do I seem wary of?

Starting to rethink my whole position on Mala vs. Syryana. Syryana's vote could be seen as opportunistic/survivalist. Mala, on the other hand, expressed a scumread on Morning, but now is recanting it because other people agree? It looks like she was distancing, but then got nervous when a concensus of the town wanted to lynch her scum buddy, and she is now backtracking. Regardless, this is something that can be sorted out tomorrow. For now, we need to vote Morning.

[Bulbazak]

I'm voting for Morning, as I've done every day since I replaced in. She is my strongest scumread. If there is a more important decision than that of lynching scum, you'll have to enlighten me.

[Bulbazak]

Understood, Mala. Your d1 point, though, is not great. Everyone but GM was on the d1 lynch. While it's true that at least 1 scum was on the wagon, I'd also be looking for scum off the wagon as well, since that would provide distance from a mislynch. Morning fits that description, especially since she expressed suspicion of Aus with her self-meta, yet she did nothing about it and lied when she said that that wasn't what she was doing.

[Bulbazak]

she expressed suspicion of Aus with her self-meta, yet she did nothing about it and lied when she said that that wasn't what she was doing.

Or you could stop misrepping me and accusing me of lying.

Spoiler: The soft suspicion of Auspicious

...gun to my head, my opinion on everyone would be:

Last time I said this I was Scum.

@goodmorning, applying self meta to other people isn't normally that effective.

I never said it was.

you're backtracking, you most certainly implied it at the bottom of 351.

If you feel that is what I was implying then that's your prerogative.

And her use of self-meta in post #351 WAS being used to imply that Aus was scum. There's no getting around that. You would not bring that up for any other reason but to imply that the other person was doing the same thing as scum. Period.

Yeah... I don't think I'm misrepping you at all.

[Bulbazak]

Yeah... I don't think I'm misrepping you at all.

Making assumptions about what people may or may not be implying, and hanging on to those assumptions after said people have told you that you have assumed incorrectly, and further continuing to hold forth incorrectly on the subject... that's misrepping.

It's not. You can claim that you were not implying that Auspicious was scummy, but as I've stated before, using your own scum self-meta to comment on what he said served no other purpose. You were saying, "I have done this as scum.", to which the natural conclusion is: Auspicious is scum. There's no getting around it. You implied that Auspicious was scum and gave yourself an out for when he was mislynched ("I never said that at all..."). I'm not misrepping you. I'm interpreting your actions and showing them to be scum motivated.

[Bulbazak]

6. That is

your

assumption of my intent, yes.

Then what was your intent?

7. You may notice that I did not vote him.

Is distancing yourself from a mislynch supposed to impress me?

You may also notice that I had a Townread on him.

I don't really know how I feel about auspicious at this point. He's been dropping newbtells like they're going out of style, but I've not seen any real serious alignment tells from him thus far.

Where?

Wherefore would I need an "out" for his lynch?

As Ffery noticed, your comment "stirred the pot" without you being on the wagon. You needed a way to naturally backpedal from your comment and distance yourself further from the lynch. The "that wasn't my intent" comment was a good way to do it.

Why would you attempt to find me responsible for it?

Not responsible, culpable. As I've explained, you contributed to the Auspicious lynch without being on the wagon. You didn't want the heat from it, and your actions show it. I find that scummy.

10. I would like to think that this is not my problem but, as I believe we share an alignment this game, it is rather more my problem than I would like it to be.

Sorry, AtE is not going to work. I believe you to be scum, not only because of this, but also because I've seen you as town and as scum, and this is not your town play at all.

[Bulbazak]

Okay, what are your reads? Ffery, you can answer this too, since you're staying on the sidelines.

[Bulbazak]

I'm concerned that my putting a vote on GM would result in an immediate hammer. And if I'm wrong about her, then it's probably game over.

Ffery, I believe that her scum buddy is already on her wagon, and if not, they'll probably scum hammer, which means we can lynch them tomorrow for the win. I feel confident that GM will flip scum.

[Bulbazak]

Otolia, the only way you can be "lynched and lose" is if you are either Mafia or the SK. If you're town, you win with the town. I've already explained why it's a bad idea to lynch you today: Doing so is too big a risk in a possible Mylo situation. It is better to find someone that we agree is scum, rather than policy lynch someone who has a good chance of not being scum. This is in the town's best interest, and is part of that "cohesive town" you keep going on about. We can't clear you, for obvious reasons, but we can't risk lynching you either.

[Bulbazak]

In the bigger scheme of things, there is a reason she is here : she either is a liability as town or she is anti-town.

So do you think she is town or not? I'm getting tired of these games. Your WIFOM puts us in a difficult situation, one which we cannot deal with at the moment. While your actions can be seen as a scum ploy, they do present the real possibility that you are town, or at the very least, not mafia, which means we can not risk lynching you today, but at the same time, we can't "clear" you either. It is in our best interest to lynch mafia today, because if we don't, there's a very real chance that we'll lose. Ignoring that as you have and floundering about and being generally useless is of no help to the town and is, in fact, anti-town.

[Bulbazak]

@bulbazak

: What WIFOM are you talking about ?

Your move yesterday leading into your position today. While you could be town as you say, you could also be scum who made the move anticipating that town would look at it and either judge you as town or overlook it due to potential Mylo. The second is the definition of WIFOM. In that instance, you'd want to be "cleared" so that you could make it through Lylo and win. Regardless, it puts us in a precarious situation, since paying any attention to it can potentially lead to a town loss. Therefore, it is in the town's best interest to ignore it for today, lynch mafia, and then come back to it tomorrow. Saying otherwise is anti-town.

[Bulbazak]

Bulbazak, the actions I took weren't WIFOM, the way you present them is. I'm not really into sophistry so I suggest you keep your argumentation to facts and analysis and not wild conjunctures.

My point is that we have to treat your actions as such, and your wanting to either be cleared or lynched is anti-town and is against everything you've said you've stood for the entire game.

[Bulbazak]

@Bulba:

Is there any way I can interest you in moving to Syr?

Give me a good case and explain why he is more likely to flip Mafia over GM.

Not sure GM how it's more of a scum gambit. If he's scum - he locked himself into a claim in which he can't get out of. That to me is the only town part of it.

I could see try-hard Town being

so sure

he was right that he accidentally a mislynch, but this insistence on immunity is not something I could see Town demanding as hard or as much as OOOOO.

How does that make him Mafia and not SK?

[Bulbazak]

GM, I understand your point, but it's still too big a risk to take atm. We have to assume that there are 2 Mafia, even if there are not, which means that Otolia is too big of a gamble today. If you are right, we can always lynch him tomorrow, hopefully for the win. What makes you so sure that there is only 1 Mafia and not 2?

[Bulbazak]

I'm not sure, there could just as equally be 2. Where did you get that from?

Honestly for me it points against him being SK, because I don't see a member of a 1-Scum team taking that big a gamble just to remove a PR. This of course presumes that there are still 2 Mafia alive (or were yesterday), but given the general Townishness of most of the dead people (except DC, which [if he was the other Mafia] could explain why OOO is now pushing

so very hard

for lynch immunity here [his partner would be dead]) that's not a huge leap of logic to make.

Where is the SK in this scenario?

[Bulbazak]

That makes no sense, Otolia. If you are the SK then town's loss is part of your win condition.

The SK win condition is to be the last person alive or one of the last two. Scheming to provoke another party loss by sacrificing oneself is NOT AN ACCEPTABLE BEHAVIOR.

Except that wouldn't be the point of that gambit. The point would be to get towncred, as town would be more likely to write off the actions as town in a Mylo situation. Your insistence that we do exactly that is therefore telling.

[Bulbazak]

I'd like to see a good case against goodmorning.

Goodmorning: I've played 2 games with Morning. One where she was town, and one where she was scum. This is most definitely her scum play. Her replacement read post was not really necessary, and like in Newbie 1305, contained hardly anything of substance. Essentially, her use of "interesting" is filler to make it look like she's scumhunting. And her use of self-meta in post #351 WAS being used to imply that Aus was scum. There's no getting around that. You would not bring that up for any other reason but to imply that the other person was doing the same thing as scum. Period. She's definitely scum, and she needs to be lynched.

Add in that she voted Sven for sheeped reasons (contradictions) and then sat on the wagon for the remainder of the day. She's still my strongest scum read.

I did like the reads list from Otolia. I'd like to hear what everyone else thinks first, but I'm willing to switch to Syryana, as Otolia actually provided a decent case. I would like to know why he thinks that there are 2 scum instead of 3 (not sure whether that was the DC point or not).

[Bulbazak]

DCL first fixated on GM for a horrendously awful reason. He called her a liar for first saying she found Auspicious scummy because Aus said something she would have said as scum (#351) and then agreeing that self-meta is not normally very effective (#353). This isn't a lie as DCL claimed (not even close), but he kept his vote on GM anyways until putting Svenkst at L-1.

You had a point about GM, as she didn't say anything of substance regarding DC. However, when you get to DC scum reading GM, your case falls apart, as he actually had a point. GM's use of self-meta is the biggest point against her, as there is no other way to look at it. She used her self-meta to paint Auspicious as scummy without joining the wagon. Now Otolia opens up an opportunity for dead DC-scum, and you automatically grab it, not only to distance yourself from GM, but also to discredit the case against her?

Unvote

Vote Syryana

Scummiest move of the game.

[Bulbazak]

Actually, it's L-2. Otolia hasn't voted.

[Bulbazak]

But then he just uses the excuse of not believing the claim, like he did today. He essentially sheeped Otolia's reasons, used them as reasons to avoid culpability, and then called Otolia scum.

[Bulbazak]

Personally, I started to lean that way during his argument with Mala, but I felt as if I didn't have anything concrete. That's the only reason I stuck with GM.

[Bulbazak]

Explain, because I'm not quite sure what you're saying.

[Bulbazak]

Does it benefit scum for town to think that there is room for one more mislynch today? I think it does but I'm not sure.

If both mafia are alive, a mislynch ensures them the game.

[Bulbazak]

Actually, I'm wrong. A mislynch in that case would ensure a town loss, assuming the SK is still alive.

[Bulbazak]

Unlikely. There were only 2 kills on n1, which means that either the vig was blocked or killed. Since Sven admitted that he blocked CD, and CD was killed, it's safe to assume that CD was the vig and was killed. Also, if the vig was alive last night, he should have eliminated Otolia, as his actions d2 made him a liability to the town.

[Bulbazak]

Ffery, I really don't care whether we lynch Syryana or GM, as I believe they are both scum. I just want people to stop sitting on the fence and either vote or further discussion.

[Bulbazak]

Make your case.

[Bulbazak]

I'm trying to figure out what to do. I feel like this game has gotten out of town control. Personally, I believe that both GM and Syryana are scum and are cross-voting each other to provide distance. After thinking about it, here's what I'm going to do...

Unvote

I have no idea why Otolia is playing the waiting game here. Gut tells me it's because he's SK who doesn't want to be responsible for the wagon if it goes bad. So here's the deal: As I've said, I believe both GM and Syryana are scum, and while I prefer GM, I don't care which we lynch, as it will still be a scum lynch. I'm now taking control of the game and putting the pressure on Otolia, as well as anybody else who is unsure. Whichever wagon reaches 3 first, that will be the one I will give intent to hammer. If no one has decided by 1 hour until the deadline, I will decide for you by voting to give my preferred wagon majority. Come tomorrow, we can analyze the wagons and use that to lynch any remaining scum.

[Bulbazak]

You're seriously going to leave it all in the hands of the man you believe to be the SK? When you think we're in LyLo?

God save this town.

SK has every incentive to lynch mafia as well. Like I said, I believe both you and GM are scum, so it doesn't matter to me which one of you we lynch. Feel free to squirm a bit more. It makes me feel confident in my reads.

[Bulbazak]

It forced you to make a decision.

Intent to hammer.

[Bulbazak]

Vote Syryana

[Bulbazak]

How would that win points with me?

[Bulbazak]

I see Fery keeping you alive over any other player, but I'd assume since everyone think you are town you would have been targeted by at least one faction for the kill.

Given the number of kills last night and our nasty habit of lynching town, I think they were more worried about each other than they were town.

I was reading through everyone's ISO's after Syr's flip and I feel like Fery is going on information that others do not know.

For instance -

She seems to know that USC, but also DC was a mafia kill target rather then a vig or SK target.

Today it seems like she's under the impression that she knows GM was mafia and trying to use Syr's opening post against me to win some type of favor from you. (That's why I believe she's trying to win points)

I read through Ffery's ISO during the night phase, and I don't remember any of that. Can you please point it out?

What Syr forgot to include in his little scenario is that Fery could be a likely partner for GM if GM was mafia.

Fery's had GM as an unsure/scum read, but never really acted upon it until last day phrase.

Actually, Ffery's voting GM over Syryana makes me lean town. I can't see mafia passing a mislynch opportunity like that up, especially with how well this game has been going for them.

As for her unsure/scum read on GM, again, I don't remember that from her ISO. Although I do remember that you held that stance all game and did nothing about it.

I don't really trust either of you at this point for choosing Syr over GM yesterday.

To be honest, I thought the 2 of them were partners, and I expected him to flip scum. I was actually quite shocked by the result.

[Bulbazak]

I was pretty pessimistic about there being a day 4 if we got day 3 wrong.

I tend to proscribe to Shaheed's Law (which I stole from Belisarius), which says that if you need something to be true or you're screwed, assume that it is. That means that I have to believe that there are 2 town left alive, which means we are looking for only 1 scum, more than likely Mafia (This is mainly due to PoE. I'll explain more later, but I'm typing something important up, and I need to get back to focusing on it. I'm also waiting for Mala's response.).

[Bulbazak]

I don't see how we likely have mafia over an SK.

I still feel that DCL was mafia. Which makes me unsure if mafia have been officially destroyed, but I want to think that because I don't see Bulba's PoE he mentions in 1125 as possible. I don't think the SK is dead because if mafia did attempt to shoot the SK there would have been one kill on any night after N2.

Normally I'd agree with you, Occam's Razor and all, but it doesn't seem to fit with the way things have played out and with how I'm reading the game. Shaheed's Law says that we have 2 town and 1 scum (mafia or SK) left. When I read through Ffery's ISO, I came away with a very distinct town read. Her vote on GM was the biggest contributor to that, as I don't see scum not hammering Syryana. Her play today continues to be town. That leaves me with Mala, who has actually let slip hidden knowledge in an attempt to accuse Ffery:

For instance -

She seems to know that USC, but also DC was a mafia kill target rather then a vig or SK target.

Today it seems like she's under the impression that she knows GM was mafia and trying to use Syr's opening post against me to win some type of favor from you. (That's why I believe she's trying to win points)

It's true that Ffery suspected USC was the mafia kill due to PoE, but she never said that DC was a mafia kill. Also, this is the only post that assumes that GM was mafia and tries to draw a connection. The fact is, we don't know whether GM was mafia or not, as she never flipped. In fact, the popular theory was that DC was mafia, not GM. Mala's post points to knowledge of GM as one half of the mafia team, which again, we have no way of knowing for sure.

That by itself does not mean that Mala is mafia, as she could be the SK and have NK GM. However, if you add in the fact that she has constantly SK hunted throughout the game (which the SK wouldn't do, but mafia would) and that she has distanced herself from GM by repeatedly calling GM a scumread, yet never voting her, it becomes apparent that Mala could not be the SK, but would have to be mafia.

The only problem is that Occam's Razor and Shaheed's Law don't seem to mesh. However, if we don't assume that CD was the vig, the picture becomes clearer. That means that there was a double kill on n1. Then on n2, the vig shot at Otolia, the SK, and was killed himself by either the mafia or SK, meaning that Havingfitz or DC was the vig. This makes sense, since the vig would have to shoot at Otolia, due to the anti-town nature of his play on d2, and the fact that the vig did not speak up on d3. This sequence of events would allow for there to be 2 kills last night, yet only for 1 mafia member to remain in Lylo, the result of Occam's Razor and Shaheed's Law working in tandem.

Thus I come to the conclusion, via PoE, that there is only 1 scum left, a mafia member, and that it is Mala.

Vote Malakittens

[Bulbazak]

Shaheed's Law (scroll down to playstyle): http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Belisarius

[Bulbazak]

I'm not so sure why either of you are surprised that I voted for Mala. Shaheed's Law told me that only one of you were scum, and I had a town read on Ffery, and Mala slipped right out of the gate.

Her beginning post didn't sit right to me. It felt as it was trying to gain favor with you because she didn't seem to say anything about a read on you other then she said well I'm thinking Syr was right about Gm and Mala. Which was more of an out of the gate comment.

Ffery only said that she thought Syryana was right about you. She never mentioned GM. You have been the only one who has even mentioned that GM was scum. That's why I'm voting for you. You slipped bad. PoE only told me that you were mafia and not SK.

[Bulbazak]

What else was the Syr's post right about Mala meant?

Thinking Mala's town or scum? The whole way it felt towards me felt as if she was either thinking a) I was scum or b) I was town. The way it came off to me as if she's was leaning scum on me and not town.

Of course it meant that she was thinking you were scum. But it had nothing to do with GM. You added that on your own.

[Bulbazak]

Check Mate

[Bulbazak]

SK. Pretty good shot too. Took out vig n1, dietician n2, and mafia (Goodmorning) n3.

[Bulbazak]

Vig was CD and Havingfitz was the dietician.

[Bulbazak]

Yeah. My heart sank when Syryana flipped town. Mala read town to me until then. I sorted everything out during the night and shot GM last minute.

[Bulbazak]

But it was fun knowing that I was the most informed member in the game. It must have been infuriating for the mafia team.

[Bulbazak]

Yeah, you had already lost. It was just me and Mala in a game of wills. It probably would have been harder had she not revealed her partner.

I will also use this as proof positive that I can read Goodmorning.