Open 490: Donner Party Mafia (Game Over)

[Bulbazak]

I was pretty pessimistic about there being a day 4 if we got day 3 wrong.

I tend to proscribe to Shaheed's Law (which I stole from Belisarius), which says that if you need something to be true or you're screwed, assume that it is. That means that I have to believe that there are 2 town left alive, which means we are looking for only 1 scum, more than likely Mafia (This is mainly due to PoE. I'll explain more later, but I'm typing something important up, and I need to get back to focusing on it. I'm also waiting for Mala's response.).

[Malakittens]

Spoiler:

And syry, thats from "happily having added me to his town pile" 2 pages ago.

See, bulbazac's vote on you was a huge red flag. And your inferences about the vote do make me feel better about the possibility you are town.

I know I'm not playing to the unsubtle parts of my meta in this game, but game design affects how I play, and I get progressively irritable in games where the design shuts down big parts of how I solve the game puzzle as you put it.

I've been leaning to Cheery as the vig kill (maybe SK...maybe) and unseencamo as the scum target.

I've been leaning to Cheery as the vig kill (maybe SK...maybe) and unseencamo as the scum target.

Fery, how did you come up with this?

unseen looked town to me. That hesitance about lowering the hammer given the lynch dynamic looked confident and kind "screw you" in terms of the fallout that could have occurred at the start of day 2.

If I were vig, I might have gone after Cheery last night. Otolia's case wasn't strong, certainly not strong enough to drive a lynch, but some of Cheery's posts did bother me.

Ffer, the question you should ask if someone of the target players was dubble tapped.

How would that work, if a SK/VIG/Scum sending in kill, is killed do their action still go throu? If they do we know there was a double tap.

I have no idea whatsoever how that's handled at MS or if it's a Mod/game specific call. IME elsewhere, mods usually decide the kill order or how they will handle collisions before the game starts. In games with SKs, I've sometimes seen the SK kill go first due to the relative difficulty of an SK winning. The other order I've seen most often with multiple NKs is simply "all kills go through" so a killer can't target another killer and prevent their kill from taking place.

I was asking what you meant about me scaring you and that I'd be dead if you were an anti town role.

I'm saying that you would have been a priority kill if I weren't town. The day 1 kills were confusing as fuck. But last night, I *think* the DCL kill was meant to focus attention on you and me, since he was the L-1 vote. havingfitz, though, I dunno. I've never played with him before and I don't know if he'd be considered more likely to organize town than the other remaining town players.

well, IMO the DCL nk was meant to point attention in that direction - toward Syr and me. That's a point in Syr's favor if I'm right about why DCL was killed.

Dunno, these are the posts that seem to scream at me that she knows something everyone else doesn't know.

___

I don't see how we likely have mafia over an SK.

I still feel that DCL was mafia. Which makes me unsure if mafia have been officially destroyed, but I want to think that because I don't see Bulba's PoE he mentions in 1125 as possible. I don't think the SK is dead because if mafia did attempt to shoot the SK there would have been one kill on any night after N2.

I'm also wondering if CD was the vig and that makes sense in junction with Sven's claim + only two kills on N1.

I see only the possibility that the last scum-fraction is SK and not mafia. That's due to the kills are played if the SK was targeted the kill wouldn't have gone through on a certain night.

___

Bulba I disagreeded with your case in prior days because I have recently played with a SK-GM and the play there to that here felt different. I don't vote null reads.

You're also going on the conclusion that mafia haven't been 'eaten' up by the SK. For all we know both mafia could in fact be dead already.

She had GM as an unsure read in Day 1, closer to Day 2 she moved him into a scum read, but never acted upon it until Day 3.

[fferyllt]

I know MS meta doesn't extend to analyzing night kills, and every time I do some of my patented night kill analysis there's a chorus of "that's just wifom". But in a game where the night kills don't flip, I think it's necessary to explore possibilities.

And I was not the only person who thought so on day 2. Or day 3.

[Bulbazak]

I don't see how we likely have mafia over an SK.

I still feel that DCL was mafia. Which makes me unsure if mafia have been officially destroyed, but I want to think that because I don't see Bulba's PoE he mentions in 1125 as possible. I don't think the SK is dead because if mafia did attempt to shoot the SK there would have been one kill on any night after N2.

Normally I'd agree with you, Occam's Razor and all, but it doesn't seem to fit with the way things have played out and with how I'm reading the game. Shaheed's Law says that we have 2 town and 1 scum (mafia or SK) left. When I read through Ffery's ISO, I came away with a very distinct town read. Her vote on GM was the biggest contributor to that, as I don't see scum not hammering Syryana. Her play today continues to be town. That leaves me with Mala, who has actually let slip hidden knowledge in an attempt to accuse Ffery:

For instance -

She seems to know that USC, but also DC was a mafia kill target rather then a vig or SK target.

Today it seems like she's under the impression that she knows GM was mafia and trying to use Syr's opening post against me to win some type of favor from you. (That's why I believe she's trying to win points)

It's true that Ffery suspected USC was the mafia kill due to PoE, but she never said that DC was a mafia kill. Also, this is the only post that assumes that GM was mafia and tries to draw a connection. The fact is, we don't know whether GM was mafia or not, as she never flipped. In fact, the popular theory was that DC was mafia, not GM. Mala's post points to knowledge of GM as one half of the mafia team, which again, we have no way of knowing for sure.

That by itself does not mean that Mala is mafia, as she could be the SK and have NK GM. However, if you add in the fact that she has constantly SK hunted throughout the game (which the SK wouldn't do, but mafia would) and that she has distanced herself from GM by repeatedly calling GM a scumread, yet never voting her, it becomes apparent that Mala could not be the SK, but would have to be mafia.

The only problem is that Occam's Razor and Shaheed's Law don't seem to mesh. However, if we don't assume that CD was the vig, the picture becomes clearer. That means that there was a double kill on n1. Then on n2, the vig shot at Otolia, the SK, and was killed himself by either the mafia or SK, meaning that Havingfitz or DC was the vig. This makes sense, since the vig would have to shoot at Otolia, due to the anti-town nature of his play on d2, and the fact that the vig did not speak up on d3. This sequence of events would allow for there to be 2 kills last night, yet only for 1 mafia member to remain in Lylo, the result of Occam's Razor and Shaheed's Law working in tandem.

Thus I come to the conclusion, via PoE, that there is only 1 scum left, a mafia member, and that it is Mala.

Vote Malakittens

[fferyllt]

Mala,

Bulbazak's analysis resonates as much from the logic as from the distinct scum vibe from your posts today.

I'm more than a little taken aback that he put down a vote so soon in a 3-way lylo situation.

[Malakittens]

Well now. That's an unusual vote in LyLo. Town wouldn't want to place a vote unless they are sure and PoE isn't something to be sure of a read.

Ugh. This feels a lot like Uber's case on me in a recent game. When he was scum and I was town. Just the confident in the vote and the PoE aspect.

Fery is town because she didn't hammer though. If she was scum she'd hammer.

[Malakittens]

Also what the hell is occam's Razor or the S Law. >.>

[fferyllt]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor

Purists spell it Ockham's Razor.

I haven't heard of Shaheed's Law before, but it would make a good mitigation for Murphy's Law.

[fferyllt]

Mala why didn't you vote Bulbazak?

[Malakittens]

Also I don't see how anything I said was 'hidden' knowledge.

Her beginning post didn't sit right to me. It felt as it was trying to gain favor with you because she didn't seem to say anything about a read on you other then she said well I'm thinking Syr was right about Gm and Mala. Which was more of an out of the gate comment.

Syr's hammer didn't sit right with me along with his low activity and not pushing on his scum reads.

___

I'm still not going to vote yet because right now it would just be something that could be considered 'omgus'. >.>

[Bulbazak]

Shaheed's Law (scroll down to playstyle): http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Belisarius

[Malakittens]

This Day just started and I feel like he's trying to rush a decision and I don't like that. I already stated it feels similar to what Uberninja did to me in Mindreader Mafia during LyLo phrase.

[fferyllt]

If you are town, you know that Bulbuzak revealed his alignment with that vote.

[Malakittens]

Familiar arguement is familiar.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p4857513

[fferyllt]

way more moving parts in that lylo.

I dunno. If you know I am town because I haven't hammered, and you are also town, then I don't get what you are thinking right now.

[Bulbazak]

I'm not so sure why either of you are surprised that I voted for Mala. Shaheed's Law told me that only one of you were scum, and I had a town read on Ffery, and Mala slipped right out of the gate.

Her beginning post didn't sit right to me. It felt as it was trying to gain favor with you because she didn't seem to say anything about a read on you other then she said well I'm thinking Syr was right about Gm and Mala. Which was more of an out of the gate comment.

Ffery only said that she thought Syryana was right about you. She never mentioned GM. You have been the only one who has even mentioned that GM was scum. That's why I'm voting for you. You slipped bad. PoE only told me that you were mafia and not SK.

[fferyllt]

I am starting to think that Hasheed's law isn't with me.

[Malakittens]

ffs. I didn't slip and also these Law's are really annoying.

What else was the Syr's post right about Mala meant?

Thinking Mala's town or scum? The whole way it felt towards me felt as if she was either thinking a) I was scum or b) I was town. The way it came off to me as if she's was leaning scum on me and not town.

Vote: Bulba

Happy? I voted you now.

[Bulbazak]

What else was the Syr's post right about Mala meant?

Thinking Mala's town or scum? The whole way it felt towards me felt as if she was either thinking a) I was scum or b) I was town. The way it came off to me as if she's was leaning scum on me and not town.

Of course it meant that she was thinking you were scum. But it had nothing to do with GM. You added that on your own.

[Malakittens]

Okay? I think I'm allowed to considering Syr thought I WAS scum with GM? So my point still stands and it's

not

a slip.

[Malakittens]

You're trying to say it's a slip, but if you didn't jump to conclusions you might be able to see where he's not a slip, but actual thinking based on facts from reads lists and ISO's.

[fferyllt]

I said I thought Syr was right about you, Mala. Not about everything he said. Whether it's a slip or not, you extended my statement beyond my scope.

[fferyllt]

Ok, so one of two things is going on here. It's either 2-1 or 1-1-1.

And I think it is 2-1 because I don't believe that only one of GM, Oto and DCL were not town.

I had no sense at all from Mala that she was trying to figure me out when the game day started. Surely a town player, no matter how sure, would still be asking herself if I could possiibly be town because to be wrong was to lose the game. Right from the gate she was putting a case out there - a prepared case.

bulbazak is not much different except that his case was in large part based on what was actually posted today. He was still thinking and evaluating data.

I didn't expect to be casting the deciding vote today. I expected to be simultaneiously trying to stave off my lynch and figure out who the other town player is.

1-1-1 didn't really even enter my mind until bulba voted and Mala didn't. It probably should have, but with oto dead, I thought the SK threat at least was done.

If I were certain it's 1-1-1 then I would drag this out and see if I could get to nightfall with a nolynch.

But I am not at all certain, and following a 1-1-1 strategy will lose the game if bulbazac is town rather than SK. Yeah, SK. I don't believe he is scum, so he is either town or SK.

But, I think it's far more likely that Oto was SK.

I will lift a glass to Shaheed if I am right.

VOTE: Mala

[Malakittens]

Well. Fail, SK just won. Congrats.

[Bulbazak]

Check Mate