Open 529 -- Picking Simplicity -- Game Over
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penguin_alien Mafia Scum
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OK, back to front didn't work, and then I lost brain power to do anything that required much original thought this weekend. Reading through the game in order, trying to keep in mind who's flipped what.
Posts of interest:
Nice way to set the stage to lynch both of them, knowing now that neither is scum.In post 83, aptil wrote:
This statement is so strange . I am now thinking one of them(HGH and TCold) has to be scum.In post 67, HGH7193 wrote:You voted for me but I will change it before the deadline probably.
Antihero comes in and picks at both Borophil and RachMarie. I haven't played a game with town- or scum-Antihero (hi, cultmaster!) but my sense of him is that he's not the type to come in and start throwing his team under the bus.
Just what aptil did in #83.In post 237, jmo16mla wrote:Willing to bet at least one out of tcold and aeronaut are scum. Anyone follow?
This reaction isn't great (AA9's slot)In post 283, Brian Skies wrote:
I already had both of them in my "lynch" pile.In post 237, jmo16mla wrote:Willing to bet at least one out of tcold and aeronaut are scum. Anyone follow?
Here:
Titus talks about all the places to scum hunt. Then she picks on a lurker. Um...In post 285, Titus wrote:@Wake, I just saw the questions I missed upon a reread of your ISO and mine. You raise some interesting points about Evil being hypocritical. I will move him to my watch list along with Skullduggery. I don't like your fixed number theory but I don't like a wagon so fast on Skull even though he's being a jerk. We should spend enough time to ensure everything has been discussed but no longer as lag can derail legitimate wagons. HGH is a strong scum read at this point for me and it seems like he's jumped on a lot of radars.
@Skelda, I have to disagree with the no motivation to cut the day short. If the town is aligned and agrees upon a plan, scum can manipulate to cause disagreement. Also regarding Anti-Hero, if you tried to twist your read of him, that's VERY hard to do. If you had just agreed with popular opinion (which you did) you would have at least commented with some hostility that I was suspecting you might sheep your reads. Objecting about being ignored by someone other than your scum read is a town indicator to me which both Wake and Anti-Hero displayed so I'm putting them as town tentatively.
@All, This wagon formed suspiciously fast. People shifting from HGH to Aptil to Skull back to HGH is just off. HGH's wagon takes one of the longest. For my own notes, I'd like it if everyone FoSed someone not on that list, even if it's not your biggest scum read. There's something off about the speed and formation of these wagons. Looking at each player might be beneficial to the group.
VOTE: don_johnson
More content needed from that slot.
If I throw in DJ as a town read, it looks like scum stayed the heck away from this wagon. Probably for good reason. Which makes me think it's unlikely that aptil is scum after all, as I don't see BoroPhil following him on.In post 342, Nobody Special wrote:Votecount 1.08
Skullduggery - 8 - aptil,BoroPhil,elleheathen, don_johnson,Aeronaut, TCold, uctriton00, HGH7193
This makes me think one of {Titus, JS, Brian Skies} is scum, with JS as the least likely. I'd put Brian Skies as the most likely for having the shortest reasoning.In post 446, BoroPhil wrote:don_johnson - 4 - Titus, JacobSavage, Brian Skies, uctriton00
voted me early on, possibly retracted his vote a little too easily but I put zero pressure on him so this does seem pretty town. scum would have kept their vote there.
so this leads me to think don is town, therefore 1 of the people on him could well be scum.
Titus - agreed with him at 191 (as above), but then his vote states that we need more content from DJ. bit bizarre this as DJ has been pretty prominent (and posted reads for everyone)
Jacob Savage - zero activity, strange vote. seems outraged that he is a 'townie vote'
Brian Skies - now unvoted
Uctriton - not actually sure why he voted for Don. but I agreed with his thoughts on skullduggery.
Not sure on skull overall. but Jacob has done nothing and that vote was bizarre. Got sidetracked somewhat there, but I think this person needs some pressure.
VOTE: Jacob Savage
I'm of two minds about this. On the one hand, aptil is unhappy about anti-town play if he's referencing a VT claim. On the other hand, he's taking it at face value, implying insider knowledge.In post 456, aptil wrote:Your read on me is basically, you wanting to know why i was away and looks like a reaction test.This is the last time i am even going to comment on it .
Why do you like to roleclaim for no reason at all?
I like Maenara's entrance.
And it leads to this:
!!!
And this:
makes me like JS. Not afraid to tell off abrasive and detrimental town.In post 496, JacobSavage wrote:Way to ask a loaded question.
What do I think, I think your full of shit personally.
I think maera's vote is justified and her reasonings are pretty soild.
Hell, I can't believe I didn't do this already.
VOTE: Wake88
With hindsight, not loving this.In post 587, Titus wrote:Can someone explain the BoroPhil vote?
Living players with my reads at this point (breaking this up so as not to piss everyone off):
aptil
ArcAngel9
don_johnson
JacobSavage
jmo16mla
penguin_alien
Maenara
Antihero
Titus
That leaves three anti-town in aptil, AA9, JS, jmo, Titus.
I'd put aptil in there based on everything. jmo, likely given his sidelines feel. Not JS. Titus-AA9, not sure; Brian Skies was weird with BoroPhil, but I need to look at AA9's entrance more carefully. Titus pings a bit.-
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penguin_alien Mafia Scum
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Yeah, there is absolutely no way I'm lynching DJ. He could parade through the thread wearing a sandwich board claiming scum and I still wouldn't touch him. No scum catches a doc crumb, has it acknowledged by the doc, and then doesn't kill the doc for two full nights. I could see waiting a night to see if other scum took care of it for you, maybe, but no way mafia-scum wants a doc around who could give a claimed cop an extra night's worth of results, and a solo-SK shouldn't want any factors that delay their win kicking around, especially when they know that the protection won't be on them as soon as a cop claims. If DJ showed that much restraint, he deserves the win.
This reads as logical Titus, which was missing from the most recent game I played with anti-town Titus.In post 632, Titus wrote:1) The lack of talking with the SK. That plus everything you do is possible strategic positiing for an SK. Yeah, looks like a slip.
2) You've bullied/threatened every role (Cop do that, Doctor do this, Mafia do that) yet you are missing the SK.
3) No. There's no lie. It's objectively verifiable you didn't talk to the SK in your last post.
4) Not sure what doesn't make sense.
5) I can be an arrogant prick. That's a call for evidence to see if I am wrong before I tunnel you to god damn death.
6) It doesn't at all. I accused someone in Open 512 of slipping and they weren't scum after the game. Shit happens. I realize that and I want to be down sure.
7) Yeah, find me one question that is actual scumhunting you're doing lately. Your "scumhunting" is OMGUS.
I'd actually like Antihero's impression, seeing as he just finished playing anti-town with Titus. My impressions were probably colored, but in the Greater Idea, Titus' arguments were really weak. Here they're specific, sure, but they're backed up.
Why I think we have town-Maenara here as an example. Trying to get town to work together, asking people to present cases. Sure, she goes on to go after the town cop, but she's not bossy about it.In post 656, Maenara wrote:Right, so, first up, we need to focus. Like, srsl. About two thirds of the time has been wasted already, and people can't even agree on three leading wagons. We don't have a single bloody wagon with more than three people on it, but we do have a total of 11 wagons.
In a 20 player game.
Hopefully, I shouldn't need to point out why this is dumb. Hence, I suggest everyone currently voting make a case on their votee, and everyone who can't (or won't) unvotes. Immediately. And then votes for someone on whom there's actually a case with which they somewhat agree.
In post 665, BoroPhil wrote:as for my vote it's still on Jacob. he hasn't even challenged my vote on him which is always the sign of scum. avoid confrontation and hope it passes.
First impression is that this isn't scum-scum. Second impression is scum feeling betrayed by scum. Third impression is that BoroPhil didn't seem inclined to bus RachMarie, so I'm not thinking he'd randomly bus another teammate.In post 667, BoroPhil wrote:yeahhhh man, seriously
RachMarie sharing Titus' interest in the SK. Mafia fixation on third-parties early on is a pretty decent tell in my experience. Difference between RachMarie is Titus was engaging with Wake88 when the SK-addressing discrepancy arose, whereas RachMarie is encouraging this line of inquiry in lieu of scum-hunting.In post 700, RachMarie wrote:On the other hand, I am not as sold on Titus' SK slip theory.
I think Wake is probably town but not as familiar with how we operate around here. So he comes off somewhat trollish. But that does not make him scum of either the mafia or Sk type.
But I want to see the SK dead as well as the mafia, it is not in the interest of town to leave the Sk free and happy. So that is why I asked you why Sven?
I also don't think Titus would go on to scum-buddy with RachMarie on this line of reasoning immediately afterwards.
...and then this. Hate this post with 20/20 hindsight.In post 743, Titus wrote:Ugh. Wake does have a point about this suspicious vote hopping. The problem is both Manera and Sthal do it. I don't like Stal's bargaining. Very scummy. Town should be focused on persuasion. Stal and Manera also seem too close for his point in the game.
Skelda, why BP?
That's through page 30. I'll make a fresh post every 10 pages to keep everyone's eyes from glazing over...-
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In post 759, jmo16mla wrote:
let me see connections showing we are partners.In post 754, Loranthaceae wrote:Rach iand Maenara are town. The rest of the clowns on my wagon are scum, imo. Sven makes the most compelling case of the game on antihero and yet he votes for his scumbuddy only to jump off him at the fist occasion.
VOTE: jmo
Also, i beleive he changed his vote after he voted me then again changed it. so, whats that say about the second person he voted? why am i scum with him and not the second person?This looks like irritated scum in the first post and scum diverting in the second post. Again, since BoroPhil is off JS by now, I'm not sure if this is indicative of buddy-JS or mislynch bait-JS.
Yet BoroPhil keeps heavily pushing players who've now flipped town. It makes me think JS isn't his buddy.
More support for the idea that BP has trouble commenting on his scum buddies. Looking harder at Brian Skies/AA9 from earlier.In post 786, BoroPhil wrote:Loranthaceae - 3 - RachMarie, Maenara, Svenskt Stål
Loran - asked if scum had daytalk. interesting. something I'd ask if I was scum. thinks Titus and Sven are scum, I'd say they aren't. less sure on Rach. this is probably a decent wagon on reflection.
Rach - incredibly quiet. only vote is actually for HGH, Loran's predecessor.
Mae - just don't get good vibes. seems prickly, but we didn't get on in a previous game so maybe she just has an obnoxious style. quite defensive of Sven
Sven - has come across as pretty town, but when you ISO him it's pretty light. got involved with Wake quite a bit and I agreed with the majority. but then again Don and Titus irk him. leaning back to unsure here. so might lower the case on Loran
His conclusion. He then votes jmo. At this point, the pressure on him is building, and I'm not sure that he wouldn't try to help a buddy by voting them at this juncture. I don't think both jmo and JS are scum though.
This doesn't seem like a scum play--have them explain a scum read on a (later flipped) town player who you're reading as town, then vote them for the lousy read. It seems like the momentum is going toward a BP lynch; why clear a town player in the process?In post 814, Titus wrote:VOTE: BoroPhil
I really don't like your accusations of RBD here. Nothing of her play reeks of desperation at all.
After #928, Maenara can join the sandwich board group. Absolutely no reason to throw BoroPhil under the bus, too much content, just not scum.
Again, Titus feels town. Scum isn't going to distance from a scum lynch.In post 939, Titus wrote:VOTE: BoroPhil
Not my first choice but Loran looks full of scum, so will vote Boro. Manera deserves a better response than this but my phone is about to die.
Soft defense of BoroPhil--do not want.In post 997, Brian Skies wrote:BP is lynchbait and has more content than people think. I'd still rather lynch Loran or some other unfortunate soul in my four person scumpile.
That's through page 40...-
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In post 1015, Brian Skies wrote:Unghhhh! It pings too hard. I can't be on this wagon anymore. It just feels so wrong to me.
VOTE: Loran
Still liking this one more.
Normally I'd give Brian Skies credit for jumping off a scum wagon, but the place he jumped and the link with RachMarie make me like it less.In post 1018, Loranthaceae wrote:He's been wide awake ever since I called Rach town. Maybe they're scumbuddies and he wanted to squeeze me into elaborating on that "townread".
The aptil derail attempt is awful, but town-driven aside from jmo. His self-characterization there of 'getting into the game and asking questions' isn't what I'm seeing.
Man, BoroPhil was hard to lynch.
I'm having a lot of trouble seeing Titus as scum.In post 1075, Titus wrote:
If this is the case, why wouldn't Aptil vote BoroPhil?In post 1071, jmo16mla wrote:
THIS IS SCUM. SCUM SCUM SCUM. YOU VOTE FOR ME FOR IDIOTIC REASONS, THEN YOU GET WAGONED. WAKE BEGINS TO GET WAGONED, AND YOU VOTE FOR HIM.In post 1068, aptil wrote:I agree with Don that Wake has set himself perfectly for a SK as he will get an innocent either ways .
Ok as i have said already , i can anticipate what Wake is going to do now . He has done this before , he will start abusing and get himself replaced . Fucking town chances in all possibilities . Even Albert was in that game , he should back me up on this .
VOTE: Wake888 please do not take your frustrations on daily life here .
VOTE: aptil
I'm on page 47 and really looking forward to seeing why the lynch swung from Aptil to BoroPhil.
I tend to think every name mentioned here is town.In post 1194, BoroPhil wrote:I'm VT. good luck. Follow Sven, Brian and possibly Titus. I think they are talking the most sense, particularly Sven.
Tomorrow, go for Skelda. and my remaning list of 6, though uct has probably fell off it now.
DJ's waffling around BoroPhil while the wagon's at L-1 is also not scum. Then hammering and being antagonistic about it =/= scum.In post 1219, don_johnson wrote:titus: i'm not getting scumvibes from phil. I've mentioned that a few times now and the only issue I take from 786 is the skelda suspicion then jmo vote. can you explain the thing about sven?
And that basically ends D1 and coincides with around page 50...I'm running out of room for scum reads.
Fair warning, I'm probably voting jmo this phase. After reading all of D1, AA9's slot comes in second. aptil I guess is third, although there's a lot to mine from JS.In post 2340, penguin_alien wrote:That leaves three anti-town in aptil, AA9, JS, jmo, Titus.
Rolling, rolling, rolling...-
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Day Two: can't complain about the ABR lynch so far. And Loranthaceae claiming cop D2 with Skull not being killed until N3 is clear-DJ-town.
Don't love this.In post 1453, jmo16mla wrote:So uh, lor, you the cop or not Hun?
This feels forced.In post 1488, aptil wrote:this is a waste of time . I do not think anyone out there is counter-claiming . UNVOTE:
VOTE: Wake88
God, these pages were mostly a waste. Some reactions to the good, but not doing much for town cohesiveness. 61-70, coming up.-
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#1544 reads scummy to me from Brian Skies.
Hm, with the Cop outing D2, not killing the doctor is more viable from an SK. You know where the doc protection is, you don't care about the cop-doc being alive until you get down near LyLo. But then why waste the kill on the Doc N3? Still doesn't track.
...and aptil avoids all relevant discussion.In post 1591, aptil wrote:I just pulled up ABR's iso , he just looks so scummy . Get him today people .
is also bad.In post 1778, aptil wrote:In post 1770, Wake1 wrote:We've got ten days left and little credible reason to vote ABR.
Majority consensus isn't always wisdom.
Here you are talking about using 10 days .In post 1772, Wake1 wrote:When we've used up most of the precious time given us, and have more gnerally-agreed-upon reasons for having the lynch... sure.
Your tight-lipped responses in this page don't settle my stomach much, either.
In a few hours you go ahead and lynch . What changed so drastically ?In post 1777, Wake1 wrote:Wrong answer.
VTs, like me, are expendable cannon fodder.fakeclaiming VT can be done by absolutely anyone, and no one is psychic.
VOTE: Albert B. Rampage
That's a lynch.
Please give me a pool of 3-5 players you think are Scum if you flip VT while there's time. I will go after them.
Nothing else is changing D2.-
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What I got out of D3 was that RachMarie lurked the whole time, indicating that it's unlikely Titus or DJ is scum with her; otherwise she wouldn't know which of her and *partner* had netted the guilty and so would have kept posting for town cred in case it was the other scum in the group.
My Antihero read is slipping by PoE.
This passivity isn't town-AA9 as first impression.In post 2081, ArcAngel9 wrote:Alright, Here i am...
Firstly, as much as i want to read through all the pages right now but sadly i can't... so i ll do this differently.. and if anyone has anything add to up to this or if you wanted to show me something i missed, please feel free to direct me..
Day Five then starts. I'm mostly caught up with that.
Conclusions:
Scum of all flavors is in {jmo, AA9, Antihero, aptil}
VOTE: jmo-
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AA9, you said you towned it up when you replaced in. I know you often have good reads that don't get followed; where are you standing on things ATM?
SK kills:
mastin2
Wake88
Skullduggery (likely null as doctor, although an odd choice given that Mafia almost certainly had to kill Skull to get to the cop)
Rainbowdash
Titus
Question is, what do these players have in common to make the SK target them? No, I don't have an answer right now, but I'd like other people's thoughts.-
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...
Absurd. DJ, if you're town, I kindly say I don't know what you were thinking.
I'm guessing that Antihero's partner is someone we're not suspecting at this point: no other reason to quickhammer and set himself up for either NK or lynch tomorrow. Also plays into my thinking that my reads so far are crap for Mafia to not mind leaving me around.-
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Actually that still leaves us looking for Antihero's partner, and if he sacrificed himself to put us at 3:2:1 overnight with town's best case scenario being 3:1:0 the next day and worst-case scenario being 2:1:1, I'm assuming he thinks his partner has a good chance of pulling it out.
Even *if* DJ is the SK, that puts him at 3:2 tomorrow with him as the obvious lynch and his partner gets LyLo at 2:1. So he must think his partner's in a decent position, and since he wasn't the prime suspect, that says something about his partner.-
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Sure, and I do anticipate being alive tomorrow to discuss it, but since it's not inconceivable that Mafia might kill me overnight despite their disinclination to do so last night, I want my thoughts out there. And if we do end up in a winnable situation tomorrow, I don't want people quickvoting whoever they think is obv-scum without considering what the hell just happened this day phase.-
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OK, I wasn't expecting a) DJ to flip SK or b) to be around today. I did not do my homework over the night phase, but before we quicklynch Antihero, I'd like to reevaluate the three Mafia players as a group.
I'd also like to reevaluate DJ's posts, as it's likely he was giving deliberately crap reads somewhere along the line to keep from being a threat to Mafia.
I don't have time to do this tonight or any sooner than within a couple of days, especially having just slogged through the 100 page thread once.
But, we might get somewhere correlating that info. Thoughts?-
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Uh-huh, and what did you make of him continuing to talk post-hammer? Did you still think groupscum would continue to leave a trail after being lynched?
Also, may as well go for broke here, what's your take on why scum's leaving me around for two nights running? I'd buy they thought I would be good framed as the SK the first night, but with only Mafia left, leaving conf-town around is silly without an actual reason.
(be honest here; I can take it)
Thoughts on the aptil kill?-
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...dude, I read a 90+ page game thread; I'm invested.
I'm aware that your stance is that you don't have the kill. I'm asking for speculation on why Mafia would leave conf-town around at LyLo at all. Do you think aptil's reads were a threat? Do you think mine are crap? Are scum just screwing with us because they figure town-you'll be quicklynched today anyways? If so, why not still take out the guaranteed townie in case things don't go according to their nefarious plans?
Who do you think the two scum are in {Maenara, JacobSavage, ArcAngel9}? If you had to pick a #1 suspect from that group, which would it be?-
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Yeah, I'd think town-Antihero here, knowing that he's almost certainly the lynch, would grasp onto whatever he could to convince us not to throw the game. Instead he's avoiding answering my questions when speculation can't hurt and he knows I'm asking from a town perspective. Reads to me like not wanting to give away anything about his buddy.-
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Maenara, if some combo of you/AA9/JS aren't preparing to revel in an Antihero mislynch, all I can say is good luck to town tomorrow. I honestly (and let me tell you, I love being able to use that word without someone going all "SCUMTELL!" on me) don't know if AA9 or JS would be a more likely scum partner for scum-Antihero. I don't think my overall reads have changed on those slots since the catch-up posts I did while replacing in. If this isn't game and scum is so kind as to leave me around to screw up LyLo, I'll reread, but I don't anticipate coming up with anything wonderfully insightful.-
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Probably not; given that basically all my reads have been wrong so far, I can't snap-vote. I didn't bother rereading the thread with the knowledge that Antihero was scum in mind because I didn't expect to be successful in baiting scum into leaving me alive here.
JS's question in #2491 is bad though.-
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In post 1454, Loranthaceae wrote:I'm copIn post 1518, Loranthaceae wrote:ah, I already have. Ok so first of all I am cop.
But ... I didn't check wake. I checked someone else and I got a not guilty, I don't think I should divulge the identity of said person atm.In post 2000, Loranthaceae wrote:Rainbow and Sven aren't guilty.
...I am so incredibly torn between whether Antihero went on holiday in the scum QT and JS forgot who I replaced or whether Maenara wanted me around to fuck up LyLo.In post 2034, Loranthaceae wrote:People need to get in here and vote for someone other than RD, Sven and don-
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penguin_alien Mafia Scum
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...In trying to remember what I was thinking a month ago, if I came in and strong-read all three remaining anti-town players, I will be so incredibly sad. Although my reads are demonstrably shit anyways this game, as I had JS as least likely scum in that group.In post 2340, penguin_alien wrote:Living players with my reads at this point (breaking this up so as not to piss everyone off):
aptil
ArcAngel9
don_johnson
JacobSavage
jmo16mla
penguin_alien
Maenara
Antihero
Titus
That leaves three anti-town in aptil, AA9, JS, jmo, Titus.
I'd put aptil in there based on everything. jmo, likely given his sidelines feel. Not JS. Titus-AA9, not sure; Brian Skies was weird with BoroPhil, but I need to look at AA9's entrance more carefully. Titus pings a bit.
Looking over Titus and AA9 now.-
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penguin_alien Mafia Scum
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So Titus and AA9 were both reading Maenara as town and JS as scummy (and Antihero as scummy in the former's case, which dilutes it a bit)
At this stage, I see no reason why Maenara would make 3p LyLo harder for herself by limiting herself to one pretend scum suspect and eliminating someone who was town reading her and unlikely to fluctuate. As far as my crap reads go, I'd like to think that DJ as third party had reason to be making me think he was town, and Antihero had less content to consider than Maenara.
If Maenara's scum, she's played a hell of a game.
JS, you have one post to convince me of Maenara-scum.-
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penguin_alien Mafia Scum
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penguin_alien Mafia Scum
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- Posts: 4948
- Joined: August 19, 2012
OK, it's been 48 hours since I screwed up a game and let down my team in the end, so I'm ready to go for it here.
Don't know where you are Maenara, but I can still end this in 2013.
Also don't know given my crap reads this game, but I just can't see Maenara scum and JS town. If nothing else, town-JS should have voted Maenara as soon as he knew I wasn't scum, which from town-him's perspective would have been as soon as I didn't quick-hammer him after Maenara's vote. Not three days later as an afterthought.
Maenara, if you're scum, a hearty well-played to you.
VOTE: JacobSavage-
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penguin_alien Mafia Scum
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