Open 548-WiFom City: The Invasion (Over)
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
is that all you have to say? it's page two. make an observation or jump on a wagon.
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
don't you find it mildly hypocritical that you believe town should give reasons for everything they do (this is a bad belief btw), yet you float onto page 2 with a nothing post? what was your reason for that? because i don't see any reason townies shouldn't be progressing the game.In post 44, Dragon Alliance wrote:Because town should give reason for everything they do especially voting. Until Hoopla gives a good explanation I don't want our vote to change.
i think it's nonsensical that you're trying to turn suspicion on me for what is essentially a difference in aesthetics. i wasn't suspicious of you when i made my post, but i think your followups trying to justify yourself have been overreaching, especially given the placid nature of my original probing. i am suspicious of you now.
to sate dragon alliance's worry about my naked vote, my reason was basically this. it's good to build little wagons and see what comes of them. sometimes it is nothing. sometimes you will get two pages of discourse. you can't predict what will come from an action, but you give the game the opportunity for something to happen. this is largely the reason why i probed dragon alliance. because his post at the start of page two wasn't an attempt to further the game.In post 66, Rottweiler wrote:What Hoopla did, hopping on the Sakura wagon, with the very naked vote that you find "not town", is how you actually get people out of RVS. It provokes reactions.
to reiterate, that isn't really scummy in and of itself - more lazy and unambitious. BUT, the fallout where he unabashedly claims sakura is a mislynch then and then the progression of thought that eventually declines into:
seems silly, and for the most part i don't know why he has spent so much time explaining his reasoning, when his reasoning is so shallow. scum are more likely to overcompensate imo, because that is the nature of lying, and that is exactly what he's doing.In post 63, Dragon Alliance wrote:A naked vote is not town. not town = scum. That is all I have at this time.
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A naked vote in RVS isn't RVS to me, it is opportunistic.
soz bbe, u scum. shoulda just played it cool
UNVOTE:
VOTE: dragon alliance-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
also, as happy as i am that rottweiler was defending me and seemingly explaining things for me, it seems weird for him to invest himself in it so much. i think the neutral "voice of reason" role is often taken up by scum because it is a cheap way to score town cred without much risk. soooo, keeping an eye on that-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
this is where you've gone wrong. a lot of scum don't know better about a lot of things. you're projecting your own understanding and ideas of the game onto someone else. why are you attributing him this level of understanding when he legitimately has said things like
"A naked vote is not town. not town = scum"?
it looks more like he is overcompensating/overexplaining which are hallmarks of someone trying to lie. your explanation hinges on him being aware of the metagame and altering a natural tendency because of it. why are you giving him this much credit? i haven't seen anything to suggest he is an overly insightful player capable of making such adjustments.-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
i'm talking about the way you jumped to a lot of conclusions based off almost nothing, and the way you continually explained yourself after that.In post 82, Dragon Alliance wrote:Also, your over extending thing doesn't make sense to me right now. Would scum do they if they were worried about being lynched to try to get the wagon off of them? I am not closed to be lynched.
i appreciate that wifom defense though. pretty sexy.-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
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profont's initial reason for pressuring me seems pretty abstract and gut based, which i cannot really criticise (other than for being incorrect) as that is often how i derive my reads (and also subsequently find them hard to explain). his followup explanation in post 54 seems sincere in its simplicity.In post 86, Rottweiler wrote:What are your thoughts on Aisa and profont?
aisa looks logical and proactive. i don't have a read on her either way, though.-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
i meant you as in your slot, dragon alliance. looking back, that non-contributing-post was made by zek. you should know that?
in post 83, i am saying to rottweiler that he is assuming that you think about the game in the same way that he does, and because he wouldn't do a certain thing as scum, it means you wouldn't too, which is wrong.-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
no, i just wanted to build a wagon.In post 101, Profont wrote:Reasoning? I'm assuming you caught on to that?-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
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so, there have been no new posts in 24 hours. i guess i will ask a question to get us going again...
why are you conflicted?In post 99, Shockwave Rider wrote:I'm conflicted on Hoopla right now.
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also, ABR: do you have any reads so far? what's up-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
i have no real read on MTD. have barely noticed his posts while i've been playing. i guess that means his posts appear to be filler-y noise.In post 110, Dragon Alliance wrote:The bolded part was a question I had for you.-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
In post 119, Albert B. Rampage wrote:Hoopla tell what's interesting about this game. I'm having a hard time getting invested.
that's really lame. i don't know why you're judging a game based on five pages of activity.In post 130, Albert B. Rampage wrote:I'm probably going to ask for a replacement. This game doesn't interest me for some reason.
join a wagon. make an effort. like in life, you get out what you put in.
i will help though. vote for DA. my gut is excellent. AND he is a hydra!-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
what's the point of posting these scum reads if you have stronger ones? you said "reads", as in plural. this means you have 5+ scumreads overall? why are you voting for me if i'm not your strongest scumread?In post 150, Dragon Alliance wrote:Our vote hasn't changed because I want my other head to make the decision of whom we vote. I did the RVS vote which stayed because I think Hoopla is scummy. My other head and I have other scum reads we think are stronger but I am trying to force them to post. I want them to contribute too.
My scum reads are: Hoopla, MTD, Profont.
one way to force these mystery scumreads to contribute would be to announce them and/or vote for them. or are you going for the silent treatment with them?-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
this seems kind of pointless if you're going to preempt your vote with "i don't think you guys are scum". how is this reaction test supposed to do anything?In post 177, notscience wrote:VOTE: puppy
I don't think you guys are actually scum but I figure a good old fashioned tunnelfight should get htis game going-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
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summary:In post 221, ika wrote:can someone just fill me in, im just gonna sheep whoever can give me the best summary for now
game is super slow
dragon alliance is scum
you should vote him now-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
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well, i guess the beastcharizard wagon has completely collapsed. no matter, it is only day 1, and i should probably explore other options anyway.
does anyone know/remember if iamusername is lurky as a trait as town/scum? i know he used to be occasionally lurky years ago, but don't remember if it was alignment related.
UNVOTE:-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
kinda in limbo and don't really know who to vote, so i thought i'd help out ika since i think his recent energy has been town.
also, sakura's ragequit is 100% town.-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
the over-the-top nature of it is too silly to be scum.In post 328, Aisa wrote:
Why do you think so?In post 300, Hoopla wrote:also, sakura's ragequit is 100% town.
i think that reaction makes more sense coming from someone wrongfully accused, rather than scum being pinned. it just seems more difficult to get indignant when someone is actually correct about your play.-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
i mentioned ika and sakura being town. so, the part of the question i missed is a read on you and abr.In post 324, MTD wrote:@Hoopla: You didn't answer Wis' second question?
i haven't really had any major thoughts about you either way, and i think abr's apathy is probably more likely to be town, but that just comes from an opinion that he relishes being scum more than a normal person.-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
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that sentence makes no sense to me. if she has a track record of doing it a ton of times as town, wouldn't you favour that interpretation than the latter?In post 350, Rottweiler wrote:you are missing the fact that it's something that Sakura has done tons of times as town before, which makes it a great thing to fake as scum.
you make it sound like she is doing this as a tactical decision as scum, but the actual act of replacing out negates any advantage gained...-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
i know some people probably won't like this style of play/logic, but i'm basically at the point where i won't lynch a handful of people, but will lynch anyone else.
won't lynch: greymarble, ika, abr, rottweiler
iam's recent posts have been fine and he tends to come good once he's interested, so add him to that list too.
everyone else i don't really have any town tells on, so consider my vote on all of them.-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
given the main support for the sakura/greymarble lynch other than you is a bunch of people in my untown list, i'm pretty ok with not going down that road. and nobody has expressed interest in lynching abr, so me not being down for that isn't preventing anything.
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
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he's done nothing town either. he's getting flashwagoned as a compromise as far as i can tell, and as long as scum isn't the driving force behind the flashwagon (greymarble), it being a flashwagon isn't really suspicious.
i am actually kind of suspicious of your white-knighting of MTD, especially if he flips town. you're displaying too much certainty over what is essentially a null-ish slot.-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
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no offense, but why would scum want to get rid of your spammy tunneling? the only reason is if greymarble is scum, but even then, keeping you alive is probably beneficial for them anyway because you have little credibility and just post noise.In post 539, Rottweiler wrote:Besides I will clearly need allies tomorrow, when I will 200% not be alive
as an aside (i was going to save this for tomorrow when i do a proper analysis): i am not as super-convinced on the sakura/greymarble slot like i was initially - your counterexample was convincing enough to bring it back to nullish, but llamarble is a valuable town player who i don't want to see die today, which is why i didn't bother correcting my read on this slot. greyice also seems to be able to read me ok from when i've played with him, so that is incentive for me to keep him alive too. i also think his "i'm so obtown, scum are scared of me" posturing is likely to be town, most because boisterous players who claim obvtownness like that do tend to be really motivated as town, and less so as scum. Tierce, hitogoroshi and Llamafluff are other examples of players who exploit that obvtown transparency angle as town, but suck at doing it as scum. i reckon greyice is probably similar.
regardless, i want to wait until tomorrow to look ar them properly after the fallout of today, and see what analysis llamarble brings to the game.
so, that's why we shouldn't lynch that slot atm.-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
In post 543, Rottweiler wrote:As for why I'll die, lol. I'm the only one doing anything in this game.
yeah, no
it just dilutes any actual points you or others have in the game. anyway, i'm off now. i'll try and bbl before deadline just in case i need to switch or whatever. peace-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
checking in. i see we have a track claim on notscience, so i'll save my time on rereading for a bit until we see a response from notscience.
this defense of notscience seems really jarring. although maybe that is because it is juxtaposed by rottweiler's post immediately after.In post 594, iamausername wrote:ika kill makes notscience scum unlikely. why's he gonna kill the one guy who was actively defending him?-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
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i think there was probably a real chance of this happening regardless of your influence.In post 602, Rottweiler wrote:Also because it would be cool if we could get him lynched without having to claim, but I guess after my D1 play that was not likely to happen.-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
why doesn't beast work as a partner in a MTD/notscience team?
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
i guess i kinda agree. i forgot that beastcharizard was MTD's first major target.In post 605, Greymarble wrote:MTD wasn't part of the team. He was a cheerleader for the team. He knew of them, but they didn't know of him.
I can't see him pushing his buddies. They're basically his only connection to his win condition, and he must have felt lost as hell (hell, I'd feel lost with a Traitor PM, and I've got like 10x the experience).
i don't think MTD is the player to go for the obvious distancing straight up, mostly because that is second level scum thinking, and MTD didn't even display first level thinking by failing to fakeclaim a PR on D1 to derail his wagon/out another PR.-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
I'm a VT also.
I know the game hasn't been very wall-heavy, but I am overdue to do a proper analysis of each player. I'll try and keep things relatively digestible...
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From town to scum:
Rottweiler:Essentially confirmed town, so I won't bother talking about him.
Aisa:Essentially confirmed town. In the event of an all VT massclaim, this will eliminate any conspiro-JOAT possibilities. Even if there is a Goon Cop/Vig, the probability of the stars aligning for Aisa-scum are still too remote to be worth considering.
Greymarble:I'm fairly sure Greymarble is town, purely from the GreyICE obvtown posturing on D1 when they replaced into the game. It's too weirdly brazen for scum to take that tact - it's almost always townies that operate on that air of belief that they are super-protown and ought not to be lynched. The reason this is actually true is because they can't convincingly replicate that as scum.
Another recent hint about Greymarble's alignment was in post #669, where they gave an alignment read on a dead beastcharizard without realising that slot had already died. It's much likelier that scum would bemoreaware that beastcharizard was the nightkill, because scum know 100% who the intended kill was, and it coming up differently would surely stick in their mind. This is a pretty esoteric towntell to try and fake as scum also, so I'm not willing to entertain the idea that Greymarble is playing the meta-game this hard, and that theyknowthis is something that looks townie and would be good to fake. Occam's Razor: a simpler explanation is Greymarble is town rather than faking it as scum/forgetting beastcharizard died as scum.
Albert B. Rampage:I'm less convinced about his alignment than on D1, mostly because enough people have commented on his laissez-faire approach to the game in a positive light, that he surely must be self-aware of his image by now, yet he hasn't done anything to channel this into positive action. This has an air of "well, this is working, so I'll keep coasting", while I think as town (at least some of the time) I'd expect ABR to change gears and start bossing the game, especially now that we have juicy flips from both alignments. It could also just be genuine disinterest, so I'm factoring that in, but there ismoreincentive for him to maintain the status-quo as scum which is why I'm not ruling him out to the same degree as Greymarble.
From the MTD--> ABR angle, he fits as a possible scumpartner, most because of the minimal interaction from MTD towards ABR. Most newbie-scum players tend to err on the side of avoidance rather than actively seeking out interactions with their partners. The one thing I read positively for ABR is in MTD's main reads post, for his read on ABR he literally just says "Nothing". I feel like if ABR was MTD's partner he'd recognise that would look a little jarring and would make up more of a read. For example, look at the way MTD wrote about notscience. Notscience had done essentially the same amount of nothing as ABR up until that point, yet MTD felt compelled to elucidate on one of notscience's random opinions andexplainthat notscience had indeed done nothing. I think MTD didn't bother pontificating on ABR because ABR wasn't a key player on the top of his mind in the same way notscience was.
Shockwave Rider:While I was rereading through MTD's reads list again, I remembered that he completely forgot to write about Shockwave. He remembers a couple of posts later that he forgot him. In the same way I don't see MTD writing about ABR-scum with such jarring minimalism, I also don't see him completely forgetting to give a read on his scumpartner. When scum give a list of reads (especially their first reads-post of the game), they're usually fairly conscious of where they're going to place their partners in the town-to-scum spectrum, so forgetting someone altogether seems more indicative of this player not being on MTD's mind, ergo not a scum partner, who would be on MTD's mind.
I'll doiamausernameandProfonttogether as this is where my PoE leads me: When MTD writes about both of these players in his reads post, he's vague and make irrelevant commentaries on the player's actions, which is similar to how he wrote about notscience, so both of players fit well within the confines of what I'd expect from MTD towards his buddy. Neither player were ever in danger of the noose on D1, so there never was much opportunity for MTD to talk about either player, but as I said earlier, newbie-scum generally err on the side of avoiding unnecessary interactions with scumpartners rather than instigating and linking in overt ways.
This is what makes me think it is iamausername over Profont: MTD's first post of the game is a random vote for Profont, which eventually spawns into a mini-dialogue with him. To me, that interaction seems less likely to have occurred between buddies than between scum and a townie.
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UNVOTE:
VOTE: iamausername
For those voting Shockwave, tell me what you think about my comments on him. Do you agree with my logic for townreading him?-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
I'm putting myself into his head.In post 674, Rottweiler wrote:No, as you are judging based on how you would think as scum. You don't know how MTD thinks.
~Wis
I think it's fair to say MTD is newb-scum - he didn't fakeclaim a role on D1 when the threat of the noose was approaching him which is like scumplay 101. This gives us an indication of his skill level. Amateur liars in real life tend to overcompensate or overexplain things because they subconsciously crave approval and want to avoid suspicion. I think MTD is an amateur liar, which is why I think he'd be more willing to elucidate on his buddies when making reads like he did with notscience even though notscience had done nothing at all. So, to forget his other buddy altogether seems unlikely to me.
I remember when I first started playing mafia years ago, as scum I was very conscious of who my partners were. I think most new scum players feel the same way.-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
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As an aside: you can disqualify any thought or line of logic in this game with that sentence (or something similar). So, your objection isn't exactly meaningful.In post 674, Rottweiler wrote:No, as you are judging based on how you would think as scum. You don't know how MTD thinks.
~Wis-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
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hey, you're voting shockwave. what do you think about my post on him?In post 678, Albert B. Rampage wrote:MORE ACTIVITY-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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it seems like a pretty meaningful tell to me, so i'm kinda confused how you can reject it to the point of not even needing to explain why.In post 687, Albert B. Rampage wrote:The fact that he left SR out is an irrelevant and trivial fact to me.
do you ever make posts giving a read on each player in the game? how could you ever forget to give a read on your buddy?-
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Hoopla
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it's logic babe. i'm insistent because i'm confident in the read.In post 692, Rottweiler wrote:I don't like Hoopla's insistence on that point. I get the feeling she is just trying to appear town. Definitely lynch her if Shockwave flips town.
~Wis-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
Interestingly, in two recent runs of this setup, three of the current alive players have been scum in this setup:
Open 539 - ABR selected Recruit/JOAT/Role Cop. Shockwave was the Traitor.
Open 520 - notscience was the Traitor in a team that chose daytalk and Role Cop.
Both of these games were scum wins, so would any of these players change a winning formula? I think the mechanic of upgrading to more roles is probably more alluring to newer players - whenever you see new or less-thinking players design a setup, it's always a clusterfuck polluted with powerroles. I think the people who fit the profile of zero upgrades the best are Greymarble and iamausername. I think ABR could go down the route of switching his selections completely, rather than picking the same things - actually, I think if anything, he'd be more likely to change his selections than pick the same ones. Profont and Shockwave seem the least likely to go for zero roles, imo. Notscience seems to be a pretty lol-impulsive sort of player who would be down for PR's, and I don't think Profont or Shockwave would override just for the sake of overriding.
this is probably true about me.In post 704, Greymarble wrote:That being said, well, we can discuss mechanics later, but I'd tend to think Hoopla would pick either two power roles or zero, due to the nature of the power roles.
PREVIEW EDIT: just seen 707, postin' anyway-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
oh yeah, silly me.In post 709, GreyICE wrote:@Hoopla: We fit the profile of nothing. We are a replacement, Sakura Hana is who would have decided that. Just sayin.
don't know anything about sakura, but the fact she's a serial-replace-outer when someone tunnels on her probably doesn't indicate that she thinks deeply about the game.
lock in my vote for iamausername.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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i'm slightly suspicious when someone voluntarily brings up stuff like this about themself, but the rest of the post is fine. he's helping us lynch iam-scum, what more do you want?In post 720, Profont wrote:Hoopla: Fyi, Proph and I had a theoretical discussion before the game started, and agreed that if we rolled scum, we would probably go for nothing. So, I'm a little skeptical of the validity of your evaluation.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008