Open 555 - Pick Your Poison (Game Over!)

[Squirrel Girl]

My investigation landed on a townie, but the neil/sharpest interactions today are enough to convince me that they're scum.

Wouldn't their interaction tend to suggest town/scum rather than scum/scum? It seems scum could easily forget or just take at face value that a town player is town - certainly seems at least as likely as a scumbuddy deciding to hard sheep a mate's reads list.

[Squirrel Girl]

Also, my only read outside of PR stuff is that Toasty looks town.

[Squirrel Girl]

@Squirrel Girl: Could you point out why you think the interactions would suggest town/scum?

Well, her basic issue is about accepting Sharpest's reads list which includes the belief that Sharpest is town. His argument for why this is scum/scum seems to basically be that he's backing his buddies' play. Okay, I could see that.

However, flip side, let's say Neil is scum, and wants a mislynch, and just finds the logic easy to sheep and chooses to do so. That is also a pretty functional scum path, and one I think makes more sense then deciding to hard sheep a scumbuddies' reads. In this situation the Neil just accepting Sharpest as town is telling not because they're buddies, but because Neil would, as scum, know that Sharpest is town and might just forget that when faking his scumhunting.

I was asking about it because I find my version to be at least as plausible (moreso, really) than reinoe's and was curious why reinoe leapt to the conclusion she did and wanted her to expand on the reasoning that made her do so.

[Squirrel Girl]

My investigation landed on a townie, but the neil/sharpest interactions today are enough to convince me that they're scum.

Wouldn't their interaction tend to suggest town/scum rather than scum/scum? It seems scum could easily forget or just take at face value that a town player is town - certainly seems at least as likely as a scumbuddy deciding to hard sheep a mate's reads list.

You didn't reply to me yet - I feel unloved.

[Squirrel Girl]

@Reinoe - Yeah, it is kind of weird how he bought into Neil so much easier than he bought into you, and I could see that from a scum mindset. Okay, consider me sold on his scumminess if not necessarily the specific team call out. I'm lumping you, Toast, and Knell into town, and also Neil (I know your thoughts there, but I figure the claim buys him at least a day just to see what he finds out)

I may back your play once I get a feel for a few more players, I'm still feeling very adrift right now.

@ChriVi - I have no good read of you - could you please react to my commentary to Reinoe here where I'm expressing some of my reads and thoughts and tell me which ones you agree and/or disagree on, please and thank you.

[Squirrel Girl]

Knell being a useless power role (by useless, I mean his power role has no power in it at night except for being confirmed town during the day...)

What in the where now?

[Squirrel Girl]

Oh, he's an IC. I get it.
Never mind!

[Squirrel Girl]

@Toasty - what's your take on Reinoe's opinion of Sharpest from page 29? If you agree with it, why is Red an overall better wagon? If you disagree with it, why is that?

[Squirrel Girl]

Burn them all!

[Squirrel Girl]

I hate the 'lynch me so I'm not a distraction' strategy.

[Squirrel Girl]

Maybe I am bad. But I don't believe in deciding that, when I'm town, the best solution is to convince other town players to lynch me. I usually settle for 'hunting for scum, being town, and trying to win'. It usually works pretty well for me, and I've never had to ask people to lynch me because I'm a distraction because I've never become a distraction.

[Squirrel Girl]

You have one vote on you.

[Squirrel Girl]

You have one vote on you.

now, take a read of the Game SG... take a look at the comments. Take a look at the general response to me. Look at any finished games by Peacebringer. Always a distraction--

My feel of the game is not that you are in any particular danger, but, maybe I'm wrong.

If you think the issue is that you are in a theory danger once a bubble bursts and that the optimal solution is to throw yourself on your sword prior to that in order to try to ensure the bubble bursts than I disagree with your choices.

Let's say you had absolute control of the lynch, who do you think we should lynch? Answering 'Sharpest' is an acceptable answer for me at this stage.

[Squirrel Girl]

Wait a sec, Sharp you are an alt for Peacebringer?

It also just occurred to me that Rach broke my heart by apparently being here, reading, and having this be her only chosen contribution.

[Squirrel Girl]

Vote: Victor

I am surprisingly okay with lynching any of the lurkers.

[Squirrel Girl]

@Knell and Squirrel: Why RachMarie/Maziek and Victor over cx and chrivi in terms of lurkers?

For me it was because he had more votes on him. On a personal read basis I have no particular vibe in favor of one over the other. The sheer fact we're debating between 4 lurkers (5 since Reinoe wants to toss in Red too) pretty much says everything that needs to be said about this game and fills me with sadface thoughts.

@Squirrel/Reinoe for/against Jk claim?

I would be fine with it, but would also be fine with choosing a lurker, forcing a claim, and lynching them based on the claim. Both would serve a useful shake up purpose for the game at this stage I think.

@everyone on the Victor Wagon: Could all of you please restate your cases please? I don't like this wagon but I'm not blind to the possibility that I'm missing something.

I don't have a case, I just ant to flip someone who I don't think is town. Since I lack reads on most of the game my vote is exceedingly fluid right now.

[Squirrel Girl]

For everyone saying that Victor is lurking could you all switch your votes to RedCoyote since Victor was on VLA.

I want to see Victor become active, at least as active as Red, before I would do that. Also, if he did that Red probably wouldn't be my top lynch desire considering the rest of the players and their activity.

[Squirrel Girl]

I don't care about past activity.

[Squirrel Girl]

I also do not care about proclaimed V/LA - you are correct.

[Squirrel Girl]

I'll respond to the other stuff later, this is just really bothering me right now seeing SG getting attacked by reinoe and Sharp. Cool it. At least both of us are here, for goodness sakes.

I don't feel particularly attacked, certainly not by Reinoe whom I feel has had a preety reasonable stance and presented it fine. Sharpest is perhaps a bit on the strident side, but even from him I find it, at best, an oddly excited defense of Victor and not an attack on me.

I actually find the sudden defense of me stranger and more unnerving.

[Squirrel Girl]

I disliked the first catchup post. I liked the last one.

Unvote: Victor
Vote: ChriVi

Yeppers!

[Squirrel Girl]

@Neil - he's a claimed PR cop...I am really thinking it is nutty to want to lynch him right now. If I wanted to lynch a PR it would be you. I don't want to lynch a PR at all. Go with your second top choice.

[Squirrel Girl]

I was going to respond to Neil and explain why his thoughts didn't really make sense, but everyone beat me to the punch. Now I'll just do this

[Squirrel Girl]

I don't know what any of that is saying, myself.

[Squirrel Girl]

I have no case for you outside of 'lurkers are lurky and I wants them deader than disco' I'm not sure what the rest of your comment is asking me so can't answer it.

[Squirrel Girl]

Three PRs have claimed. What exactly do you expect a lurker to claim at this point?

You're saying you absolutely believe all of the claims?

You don't have a case but you don't think I'm town. Your gonna have to do better than that.

No I don't, the lack of thinking you are town is a perfectly valid case to lynch you over.

[Squirrel Girl]

I think that's a silly thing to do and don't really see it helping at this stage.

[Squirrel Girl]

It seems like the easiest way to solve the "nobody believes Neil's claim" problem.

Are we going to lynch Neil today? Because I don't think we are, so it really doesn't matter to confirm him today or tomorrow. If a Vig kills him then we're already past the point of needing to much about with the JKer thing, and if a JKer wants to claim tomorrow we can debate that question then, and if none does then he can live until a JKer dies. Seems pretty simple to me.

Maybe I'm doing this wrong. Try completing this post:

"I don't think Victor is town because...."

...because he has done nothing I would deem a town tell, unlike other players have.

However, it's ironic how Squirrel kept pushing me, and was going to "destroy" my case but happened to post after everyone else.

That doesn't even make sense. Your post *was* destroyed. Like, multiple people saw how it didn't jive, I'm not sure why you think it's so unlikely that I wouldn't that I'd choose to lie about it.

Opportunistic scum vote? Appears to be so. Just stay on whatever wagon you think will likely get off the ground and get a lynch for, as long as it's not you or your teammates. Got it, good scum plan.

It's also a fine town plan. I've been pretty open that I have a lot of people I'd be fine lynching, and that my vote is pretty fluid right now. I mean, you're currently sheeping a guy you said you had something of a case on - so your vote is pretty fluid right now too, and that's fine, but why does that make when I do it questionable and when you do it fine? That said, if there is a Vig kill of you tonight, thanks for making me obv. town

[Squirrel Girl]

I dislike squirrel girl's response to Victor. "he hasn't shown me he's town like most people" is a Process of elimination argument, which I have never seen work.

I can link you to games where I've successfully pegged the scum team using this method - would that be helpful to you and make you stop acting like I'm somehow bad for using a method that appears to work for me? I mean, maybe it's all just random luck on the times it has worked, but it works better for me than when I try to scumhunt, and really scumhunting is just the flip side of townhunting, and if you think one works there's no reason to suggest the other doesn't - I'm just better at spotting town tells than scum tells. It's how I operate. Maybe I'm too much of an optomist

[Squirrel Girl]

I was scum here and we picked 1 shot cop, 2 shot vig, and IC. We stayed away from tracker and JK because they were not x shot and we felt they would be more likely to cost us the game.

Oh, wow, she must have slipped here too. Also, as part of her slip, she would totally be arguing about how her fakeclaimed scum partner, Neil, is obv. lying. Because, y'know, as long as you're slipping you might as well be making a case on your scumbuddy.

I will admit - I don't think it was a slip. I find Sharpest's reaction to it scummy.

[Squirrel Girl]

When the Rach wagon falls apart, the ChriVi wagon is accepting applications.

[Squirrel Girl]

Taken out of context it looked like a slip, I can see how, at a glance, someone would think that. The multiple votes with no one looking deeper vibes bad to me though, and I think two of them are basically confirmed town.

[Squirrel Girl]

Well that Rach wagon was a fun distraction. Now we have about two days to lynch and ChriVi and cx continue to lurk.

You're voting me currently, and I'm voting ChriVi...and I'm voting ChriVi for the same logic that you said was scummy when I applied it to you.

heh, my reaction to it you find scummy... hmmm...

Yes, I found your reaction to it scummy, I also find your reaction to me saying I found it to be scummy to also be scummy. You're not even saying or doing anything here, it's like a picture perfect example of a post made to look like it means something while it means nothing. You're not offering an opinion, a defense, or a question to try to understand my stance. You're literally just repeating what happened and trying to make it look like you're thinking about it. That would be like me typing in 'hmm' and 'ahh' to a post to try to suggest I was thinking about it while I was typing, it's weird and fake.

[Squirrel Girl]

Hmmm, ahhh, when I hmm, when I read Sharpest's post I, hmmm, what he's saying. Ah! I think he's scum.

[Squirrel Girl]

ChriVi did almost the exact same thing, so I really have them both equal in my book now - I'd support whichever wagon is bigger pretty happily though.

[Squirrel Girl]

Well that Rach wagon was a fun distraction. Now we have about two days to lynch and ChriVi and cx continue to lurk.

You're voting me currently, and I'm voting ChriVi...and I'm voting ChriVi for the same logic that you said was scummy when I applied it to you.

I feel as though your trying to make a point here but I can't for the life of me work out what it is.

My theory would be, why are you poking at ChriVi for lurking, the same issue you had beef about when applied to you, while one of your scumspects, theoretically your top scumspect, is also trying to get her lynched off that case alone, and you found me scummy for pushing on people for being lurky with no other case attached. It just doesn't feel like it adds up to a thought process that is all town. I think you're more likely scum because the thought process is cracked like that.

[Squirrel Girl]

I'd rather lynch ChriVi than Red Coyote.

[Squirrel Girl]

See, you have to understand, I don't come from here. Consider me an alien. So behavior that is alien to here and alien to you is not equated with things you consider scummy but is actually standard fair. I am not trying to make something look anything other than it is. I am always gauging reactions. So if I note a reaction is interesting, this is for me to attend to and determine if I think it is a scum reaction or not. If you are town, perceiving there to be hiding there is something you are attributing that is not based on reality but a product of your own mind. I have nothing to hide (Now). Before I did have the concealing of alt and my other ID. Now there is nothing. Only 1 way for that to be confirmed though... my death. Well there is a 2nd way, game ends with me alive and we already know who wins.

You were not gauging reactions when you posted the comment I was calling scummy. You weren't gauging or doing anything - you were trying to appear as though you were, and therein lies my issue with it.

[Squirrel Girl]

Oh and by the way, you know who is dead certain of things, scum. The way you are talking right now, it is suggesting that everyone should know that it was not a scum slip. Your behavior now is actually very spurious.

Rach can't be scum... I tracked her.

will to pressure SQ actually- goes after victor, suddenly so dead certain on rach, then comes swinging at me...

I was "dead certain" that the slip wasn't a slip...and, well, three people called it a slip, and two of them, after reading what I had quoted, agreed. I'm not sure that actually shows me as the outlier on the situation here.

[Squirrel Girl]

it is not so much being an "outlier" as the tone of your reaction. If you are scum, you certainly already know whether or not Rach is town and your response demonstrated a sense of certainty beyond the basic certain of a read. It does not read as being certain of a read type response.

And, while we're at it, if I'm able to read her posts - I'm also able to tell what is or isn't a slip. I will agree that I sounded certain - because it was obvious.

[Squirrel Girl]

@Sharpest - who do you think I'm voting currently?

[Squirrel Girl]

Sharp, you should not be advocating a townVictor read as strongly as you are. I think that's dangerous. You're effectively implying he's confirmed in 966.

He did say 'pending a false claim' Your issue on him is kind of just as silly as his issue on me as regards Rach. I stick out my tongue at it.

[Squirrel Girl]

Or was that the joke?

If it was the joke I TOTES got it and was just...playing along...?

[Squirrel Girl]

I prefer ChriVi - I don't have a case on cxinlee outside of a 'who even is this?' case.

[Squirrel Girl]

I'd strongly, strongly prefer cx over ChriVi.

How come, what's the ChriVi=town or cxinlee=scum thing you see? You're not likely to change anyone's opinion just stating your conclusions, you need to argue your points or dismantle theirs. My ChriVi case is paper thin, in the final analysis, why not try to sell me?

[Squirrel Girl]

I can be bought easily with hazelnuts. This is a fact.

[Squirrel Girl]

No one even seems to know where my vote is anymore...I'll still take those hazelnuts though...

[Squirrel Girl]

I never like when the lynch decision is basically "quick! let's lynch someone easy and unimportant before the time runs out!!!" People in this game have been lazy.

I'll offer you the same deal I offered Red - who would you rather we lynch? I'm pretty sure I sort of created the ChriVi wagon by dint of repetition and also no one town reading her. I'd be willing to help break it apart if you had something more exciting in mind - but I would sort of want to hear about the other plan. Please and thank you?

[Squirrel Girl]

I don't think I've had a single game where at least one townie didn't use language that effectively excluded them from a list of potential scumspects. Town players are taught to treat themselves as confirmed town, so I don't understand why you think this is bad?

His issue was an exclusion of Victor, not an exclusion of Sharp, in a post made by Sharp. Your issue here has no bearing to what was actually said.

Ohmigawd! Sharp is going to catch me *knowing* this is a misrep again!

[Squirrel Girl]

Though we do get a scum. I mean, that's sorta cool in a way. I'd oppose a Red wagon at this stage, besides the odd defense of me I've got nothing there, he's a mild scum/mild null prob nullish. Sharpest...I actually think i have a flat-out town read on Sharpest now. I'd probably be more okay with Red, and I'm not actually that okay with Red. Is there a good case for Red that I'm missing? Also, are you reading Sharpest's posts and seeing scum? He seems to be bleeding open-thought-town to me right now. I could see scum faking some of the pushes he's doing, but he is even correcting himself. i don't agree with his play nor reads, but none of it seems very scummy to me. Like, at all.

[Squirrel Girl]

I am. But only in spurts.

[Squirrel Girl]

That sounds weirder in reading it than it did when I had the comment in my head.

[Squirrel Girl]

All I got from what I've read from you is that he's a lurker who's making excuses, and also that he maybe twisted Don's suspicions to make a case. If that's all you've got, then I feel just as good with the ChriVi case.

[Squirrel Girl]

Well if you wanted more case work/reasoning then you all shouldn't have waited until the last minute.

[Squirrel Girl]

I'm not thinking that Victor makes much sense considering Neil's posting.

@Red - I might but into the cxinlee thing, heck, counter wagon was counter, but...it's not like there's much of an interaction there. Why do you feel it clears her so well?

Also - if that clears cxinlee...why do you not think Neil cleared Victor?

[Squirrel Girl]

He never made you confirmed town, in fact he changed his own story on that a few times over the course of the day. (twice, by my count)

[Squirrel Girl]

The Victor wagon is bad.

[Squirrel Girl]

Read Neil for Victor interactions - tell me that you think it was distancing. I don't, it reads like Neil went for a legit push there.

[Squirrel Girl]

And do you think cxinlee was a counter to scum ChriVi and was also scum? I guess I should probably go and re-read those pushes, but I remember people trying to sell me on dumping ChriVi for the Cxinlee wagon.

What's the scum case on Cxinlee?

[Squirrel Girl]

Or Agar now.

[Squirrel Girl]

I already like AGar.

[Squirrel Girl]

I am indifferent to the mass claim, as we get the same benefit of it tomorrow if we do it then. I guess there's a theoretical logic behind 'avoid wagoning the Vig' as a time saver...but I was sort of thinking we wouldn't end up using all our time anyway, and thus a wagon on a confirmed town would be fine to look at if it did happen.

I'll support it though, I don't see it as a poor move today.

Besides, we already started, so I think either I support it or just look silly

[Squirrel Girl]

Let's consider that a popcorn to Rach and rush forward blindly from there.

[Squirrel Girl]

I'll admit to immediate omgus knee-jerk as regards Red.

He actually ignored most of his wagon analysis when he decided I was scum, as I was not in his questionable areas half the time. By his own wagon analysis, Rach was actually in more compromising points than I - even if he wanted to argue that I was in bad spots somehow.

Also, he agrees on me clearing his push, and then decides I am scum without asking why I would, as scum, stop town him from pushing on someone who is a very reasonable mislynch du jour...and who, Red was pushing.

Eh, not a fan. Let's finish the claims, if Red is a Vig he can shoot me tonight and we'll sort that one quick. If Red isn't the vig maybe we'll lynch him today. I'm sort of debating between him and Rach at this stage (omgus is a helluva drug). I don't really think it's Victor or cxinlee. I'm maybe a little paranoid on Sharpest for some of the connections pointed out earlier, especially now that Neil flipped scum, but his town frustration seemed very good to me. The best I can say about Rach is that she was the track target Neil claimed, but the more I think about it, outing the Cop at that stage, with a Vig in the game, and knowing this, probably wasn't that crazy desirable. I think scum would have mostly wanted an outed Vig at that stage, and not to force a Cop claim. I dunno, lots of wine.

[Squirrel Girl]

Barring a different scum using wine, Red scum would also justify a Toasty kill over any other confirmed target. Toasty was pretty focused on...well, a lot of people, but he looked like a likely tunnel rage on Red or Cxinlee today. Maybe Sharpest too, he kinda threw that out at the end. But the Red line of thought was pretty constant.

[Squirrel Girl]

Toast dying looks to benefit Red scum more than any other theory scum - unless the purpose of theory scm was to make us think that, therefore, wifom.

[Squirrel Girl]

Scum had two absolute confirmed town and, well...if they for some reason thought Reinoe was or is lynchable they were out of their gourds. But even if you would like to argue that there were only two confirmed, that still means scum picked Toast to die for a reason as opposed to Knell (and maybe Reinoe). I think that it's pretty likely that's because his reads were darn accurate, or that scum wanted to suggest that they were. With that as a situation, I'm still pretty content with my Rach/Red pool.

What are your thoughts about Rach? Do you think Neil scum faking tracker would be fishing for the Cop? He knew he couldn't fish for the Vig as soon as the Vig didn't kill, so...cop fish, or would he have just named a buddy? It's my biggest bugaboo as far as suspecting Rach. Other than that I think she reads fine for scum, but I'm not sure if Neil would go for that play. What are your thoughts?

[Squirrel Girl]

I think I'm at like 75%/25% Neil would pick town/scum in my absolutely randomly made up percentages.

[Squirrel Girl]

Claim: Cutest necromancer that I ever did see

I have the ability to, by dying, talk to the dead.

Some people call this VT - but I'm a rebel.


Okay, with Red cleared, that pretty much takes me to AGar, Neil, Victor, Rach, Sharpest as my scumpool (others may adjust as needed) I don't think Neil or Victor are it. Like, I really don't. I find Cxin pretty good too, as described earlier. Wasn't really a counter, but...it felt like a flip that Neil was okay with. I really don't actually think it's Sharpest, but will admit my reasons for clearing him are not as solid as the other three so maybe I'm wrong.

Edit:

And, actually I voted, and announced I was "hip to flip" (and was proud enough of that to want to include it as a comment now, just so you can all bask in my ability to perform "the basic process of a rhyme". But, that said.

@AGar - you're all like 'Neil would fear a PR claim from Rach' but...like, what? Scum knew what the PRs were. IC isn't going nowhere. They know for a fact the Vig sat on his bum. So, literally, there is a, like 1/9 chance of pegging the Cop...and, worse case in that situation is that he outs the cop, he dies, but scum knows Cop at that point. Of course, Cop was basically, by definition going to claim Day 2 barring poor play, but...eh. I dunno, it doesn't seem that home run to me, why are you going with that as the story so well? I'm paranoid - de-paranoid me.

[Squirrel Girl]

all the claims are things that will work out. Doc claims on day one are eye brow raising but no reason to push it. No reason for a mass claim either, imo

Are you posting in the right game?

[Squirrel Girl]

I had to double check that I was.

I was!

[Squirrel Girl]

@AGar - you're all like 'Neil would fear a PR claim from Rach' but...like, what? Scum knew what the PRs were.

They knew what, not who.

It's literally just the smartest play given what the claims said. If scum wanted to out the cop, Neil would have claimed cop from the get-go. That way, the actual cop counterclaims, and they get to kill him. Kill two birds with one stone - no confirmed innocent outside of the IC. Neil's claim was completely survival motivated. 3 scum lived. They wanted to get the easiest win possible. You don't do that by risking a claim being torn apart by a result claim gone awry.

This making sense, SG?

Maybe, except clearly the goal was survival, but there was limited risk in the investigation, and, worst case, it would be the same as claiming cop. Pretty good odds, really.

As a counter point - it would be highly likely for a cop claim Day 2, paired with a Vig and Neil's claim - any claim was really just an attempt to buy a day or two at *best*.

[Squirrel Girl]

VOTE: SG

That is not a role in this game setup

You are correct, it is not. I still don't understand what you're doing though.

[Squirrel Girl]

How many games as scum have you played on site?
How many of those have you won?

Serious answer - I doubt this actually answers my question to you.

[Squirrel Girl]

The question was answered by someone else, also, as an alt, I don;'t care to discuss anything else about other account's history but I'll just say 'I've done okay as scum and have certainly enough experience playing as scum to not be considered a newb.'

Now can you answer my question?

[Squirrel Girl]

Yay! Good shot.

[Squirrel Girl]

Vig shot Neil because Neil claimed and then you claimed.
Neil claimed because he was going to be lynched.
That was a combo effort any way you cut it.

[Squirrel Girl]

At that stage isn't that about the same, which means the question for scum becomes one of a debate about which kill gives less or misleading info, or whose day play they fear more?

[Squirrel Girl]

Fuzzy fox appeal?