Open 574: Stack the Deck [ABANDONED]

[Mathdino]

VOTE: Alchemist because dinosaurs eat alchemists.

I don't like RQS. I really don't. It gives more information to the scum if anything, and it's incredibly easy for scum to just lie about what they'd do. I understand that's a playstyle choice but I have a rule to not participate in it. That said, #4 is useful, so

4. I've finished games with ABR and slimer, but not enough to know their playstyle.

[Mathdino]

You know what, this game is gonna stagnate if we spend it answering surveys (which is why RQS sucks).

UNVOTE: Whoever
VOTE: Adrien for doing the scummiest thing so far, and I can't seem to find a game you were in from the beginning so I don't know if you always do that.

[Mathdino]

3 votes are enough for our purposes, I'm not willing to put 4 on him this early.

[Mathdino]

Yo WP, what's your main? I played 3 games before your joindate and 2 after, and they don't match any of yours. I like your playstyle already though, haha.

And yeah, but I figured I might as well make a non-random vote to show my thoughts on the matter, haha.

Wagons early on are nice for getting reactions.

[Mathdino]

WP, for me there's a magic line where all votes stop this early on. Unfortunately the fact that we've talked about pressure so much kinda nullifies any pressure RM might feel; we just set rules.

Were you in Hard Boiled or Jimmy Neutron? One of those games I rocked, the other I completely flopped, haha.

[Mathdino]

Considering RM's literally done nothing so far, purposes (I would think) would only be to get reactions.

And because of an arbitrary limit I put on wagoning people this early. During RVS I stop at L-4, after that I stop at L-3, and then once everyone's had a chance to post I'm cool with sending people to L-1. It's a matter of comfort, not logic.

[Mathdino]

Yes, but VIs will finish an RVS wagon. I come from RL mafia before forum mafia; always had a bit of paranoia about RVS. If you want to take someone to L-3, I won't stop you.

[Mathdino]

This is actually very true, in IRL mafia everyone votes and whoever has the most dies. There is no real changing of votes. Mathdino, did you make this up to try and justify a suspicous action?

Loaded question, equivalent of "Are you scum?". Will my answer change your interpretation of it?

I have no way of knowing if there are any VIs here since I didn't read the bios of the entire playerlist, so I err on the side of caution. I think given what happened in Maf with a Twist (which I believe you read), you'd understand that.

[Mathdino]

-_-

I'm paranoid of wagoning because the people I play with IRL are terrible at not wagoning. I referenced Maf with a Twist because I know you read that, and I use it as evidence that town can be dumb and quickhammer people even at L-2.

[Mathdino]

I've lost about 50% of mafia games at parties because I got lynched D1 for wearing a hat.

Yes, it's happened before. Is why I started my MS career flat out refusing to participate in RVS.

[Mathdino]

Because I have an irrational prejudice against premature wagoning?

I'm not

on

a wagon. And I just showed you how wagons can screw over a town even online. Shit happens, so I choose to be the careful one. Again, if you want to wagon someone for reactions, be my guest.

My friends ain't idiots, brother. They just don't play mafia too seriously. The paranoia comes out when you grill me about it, so yeah. Would you prefer I just say "fuck it" and jump on the wagon because you don't like my reasons for not doing so?

[Mathdino]

You know what, this game is gonna stagnate if we spend it answering surveys (which is why RQS sucks).

UNVOTE: Whoever
VOTE: Adrien for doing the scummiest thing so far, and I can't seem to find a game you were in from the beginning so I don't know if you always do that.

You're welcome.

[Mathdino]

No problem.

Basically, RQS, in the games I've read, tends to stagnate the early game until someone says something completely stupid (though usually unrelated to the questions). Also, votes based off of RQS are usually inaccurate.

I find RQS to be anti-town, and all of Adrien's games are replacing in, so I don't know if he does that as town.

It's weak, but most of the rest of the game is either null or leaning town so it's all I've got.

[Mathdino]

1. If you were scum, what role would you give yourself in this game?
2. Are you scum?
3. What do you think is the best way for us to find scum?
4. Anyone here you've played with before?
5. What is your favorite role in mafia?
6. What alignment do you prefer to be?

Wait a second guys, I just realised after all this traitor discussion: If the mafia didn't recruit a traitor, wouldn't "I prefer to be scum" be a tipoff that that person was the traitor? For the record, randomidget forgot to answer that. Riddleton and wgeurts, on the other hand, said they'd pick recruit traitor, and they prefer to be scum. wgeurts answers "Sadly, no" to "Are you scum". randomidget also said he'd pick recruit traitor.

@Adrien

, what was your motivation behind asking #2 and #6? I'd also like you to answer your own questions.
My vote is now more serious.

FoS: Adrien

for #1, #2, and #6.

[Mathdino]

Then what're your reads? No offence but you haven't really contributed much other than a few null tells and a joke.

[Mathdino]

Sorry, I was more invested in my other game since I got like no reads at first from y'all. Gimme a sec to reread the thread and do a couple ISO's and I'll have some reads.

[Mathdino]

Okay so the issue with this game is I have a lot of things to argue with and I think a lot of people are picking up on things that aren't there, but I'm having issues getting reads from them. That's mostly because I'm not very good at behaviour tells, so take any 'vibes' I get with a grain of salt.

@ABR: I was originally going to say you're pointing out something that doesn't exist, but then I ISO'd WP and Alch and I think you may be right. A lot of it seems very fake, I think it's likely there's at least 1 scum in there.
^Townread on this guy, I like what he pointed out.

On WP and Alch, reading through them again, I'm a little more wary of Alch than WP I think, in particular based on Alch's suspicions toward RM and WP. He ends up with a very fencesitty conclusion on RM but then joins the slimer wagon anyway. And his response to WP seems like he's trying a little too hard to shut down discussion of his joke. He also tries to shut down my discussion of the RQS results.

FoS: that guy

Alchemist

, why'd you switch to slimer?

@RM: Have you actually looked at WP's and Alch's ISO? Check it out, and then come back and tell us if ABR's crazy.
^Nothing about RM really seems scummy to me, I don't get the wagon on him. I think it's mostly a remnant of RVS reaction fishing but I doubt there's much more to gain from this. Null read but likely town. Because, ya know, statistics.

@Riddleton: I think you're attacking wgeurts for playstyle more than actual scummy things. I want to know why you were so quick to hop wagons.
^Townread on you until the wagon hop, it seems opportunistic. Benefit of the doubt though: do you have any other reasons to be suspecting RM?

slimer is being pointless with a lot of his posts but I think he's town. My first game was with him actually; he acted all weird on D1 and got mislynched for it.

droog is giving me a headache with his constant posting; in 9 pages, there's been very little content so far. I agree with slimer though, on that if he thinks slimer is town, why is he trying to discredit him so hard? It seems like he's subtly encouraging a slimer wagon by discrediting while keeping him as a townread so he doesn't have to join the wagon if slimer gets mislynched as he often does.

FoS: that guy

Feel better, Adrien, I hope you answer me when you get back, haha

Questions and FoS on Adrien stand, but I think my suspicions for droog have more substance.
VOTE: droog

[Mathdino]

Sure thing.

Wgeurts:-

1) Early on we get a comment about RQS and it's effectiveness. That's not scummy by itself as a lot of people in this game are non-confirmists with regards to Adrien's survey. What does strike me as weird is how he says he doesn't see it as useful (#11) but still answers the questions anyway in #10 without much quarrel. To me, it looks like very cautious and serious play. It's questioning the motives behind such a survey, but still going-along with it for the ride as to not hypothetically arise suspicion. I will capitalise more upon this assertion later.

2) The comment in #50 demonstrates my problem with Wgeurts. He's not assertive; I feel a lot of his posts are cautious and worded so that he appears indecisive. This post implies he's familiar with this setup. So, given that you're familiar with the setup, and henceforth know there's nothing close to a NK immune miller vig here, why would you comment on someone making an obvious joke by saying "Hm, you know I don't think that actually could exist"? The thing that bothers me here is the post appears to be 100% fully serious, and yet still gives the impression you're trying to show false uncertainty by saying "I doubt it's a possibility" rather than claiming he's lying.

3) #72 also bothers me. I say I'm scum as town to get reactions sometimes. I also do that as scum. It's no biggie either way, and it's a nulltell. I don't like how Wguerts tries to out-WiFOM this by saying "ooh is he Role Cop... or not?" without providing his own insight/thoughts on how he views that kind of post. It's probably just newbie play but I'm a bit wary of it nonetheless.

1. I think wgeurts's response to this was reasonable; he's not sure if/why it's useful but he participates because why not. It's what I would do if I didn't already have an opinion on RQS.

2. This is the main thing I'm talking about when it comes to playstyle. I think you're attacking him for his wording and it's a bit of a stretch, tbh. wgeurts seems the type to want to discuss things before attacking people.

3. I think #72 is just wgeurts trying to find things to discuss. I also think he's stretching things, but I don't think scum would go on about "Oh ho ho, he might be the role cop". It seems like a dumb point to make rather than a scummy one.

Like I said, a lot of people in this game seem wrong to me but not scummy for it. wgeurts in this case is one of them.

[Mathdino]

Ugh, there's still little to nothing to really analyse; any suspicions I come up with will pretty much be grasping for straws.

I'll look at this game more in depth tomorrow and answer questions.

@droog: The "your posting is giving me a headache" had nothing to do with the scumread, it's just the tons of small weirdly formatted posts in a row that kind of artificially inflates the pagecount.

[Mathdino]

Dammit, kinda figured there'd be more to look at in the last few pages.

Mathdino, what issues do you have with me that you want me to address?

Alright, I'd like to know your reasoning behind asking each of your RQS questions, and I'd also like you to answer them yourself (except for 4, I don't really care about that). I believe you're trying to traitor-fish, as I laid out before (but no one paid attention to ).

Well, at least I didn't really miss much. I guess we could just start the game fresh since no one has any strong reads, though dino's last post gives me town vibes.

See, I'm attributing the overall "Well I got nothing" to RQS, which is my huge problem with it. Anyone can just answer the questions and leave it at that. And then... we're done.

@droog: I'm not really into jumping on wagons just to see what they think of it, sorry. I've always found a case to be more meaningful than a vote since the person can actually respond to it. Brb looking through Alch's posts.

Alchemist

, I don't like how you're making a point of not having anything to do or say. This is mafia, not an elevator ride. You had something going on Witness earlier, wanna talk about that?
Oh hey texcat. What do you think of my RQS analysis?
Also, if I get lynched on this site for wearing that damn hat, I'm going to eat it xD.

[Mathdino]

I dropped it because I was waiting for Adrien to come back and no one paid attention to it, so I looked at the other players so I wasn't tunneling my own speculation.

Adrien's back.

[Mathdino]

i dont like that you don't like RVS or RQS
you said you only like to vote on cases right?

then i go through your iso and find

droog is giving me a headache with his constant posting; in 9 pages, there's been very little content so far.

I agree with slimer though, on that if he thinks slimer is town, why is he trying to discredit him so hard? It seems like he's subtly encouraging a slimer wagon

by discrediting while keeping him as a townread so he doesn't have to join the wagon if slimer gets mislynched as he often does. FoS: that guy [...]
VOTE: droog

the only case i can find is in bold above
please elaborate your case on me or find a better one
burn me at the stake if you have to

I don't like RQS. RVS is a necessary evil which often gets results. RQS stagnates the game.
I said that I find cases more meaningful than votes, not that I ONLY vote on cases; I just vote for my top scumread. Of the very little info I had, you were my top scumread from reading through, and voting Adrien wasn't getting anywhere. I had no intention of that post being ultra-meaningful.
I'll look through your ISO again and let you know what I find. That said, my top scumread is Adrien right now (forgot to switch), so
UNVOTE: droog
VOTE: Adrien

[Mathdino]

Surprise surprise, turns out that only skimming droog's ISO like I did the first time makes it seem like it has a lot less content than when you actually read him (I'm attributing it to the posting style). Switching to townread on him, sorry about that.

Alright, so the last 2 posts made me realise that Witness has had 0 strong townreads this entire game; the only 2 he formulated were on droog and slimer, but then he even backtracked on that saying he played a game where someone played like one of them and was scum.
Alchemist's posts are making me think they're coming from a town perspective more now, considering he looked through 6 games just to show ABR was probably town. Going with the interaction ABR pointed out, I think I'm comfortable with
UNVOTE: Adrien
VOTE: Witness Protection
I do wish Adrien wasn't replacing out though, I really wanted those questions answered.

[Mathdino]

I think you're trying to mislynch Alchemist.

The issue with your reads is all you're doing is telling everyone what's suspicious but you've got no real townreads. Now that'd make sense if you played aggressively, but you very much don't seem to, so I think you're throwing suspicions to see what sticks.

Benefit of the doubt question: Who ARE your townreads, and why?

[Mathdino]

Well at the moment I'm partially voting you for not answering my question...

[Mathdino]

Prod dodge, long weekend and I'm getting my activity back up in my games.
Expect some reads and analysis soon.

[Mathdino]

Okay, first of all, the DG wagon makes 0 sense and I'm fairly certain there's scum on it.

@Riddleton: I can't say I agree with your RM case. His 'misunderstanding' of droog only seems made up if you already think RM is scum, but otherwise there doesn't seem to be anything inherently wrong with it. And his interaction with ABR just looks like he's putting in minimum effort. However,

Randomidget

, you seriously need to respond to Riddleton's case. It's been over 5 pages now since the case was made.
I also really don't like random's "Is an ABR lynch possible" post, that seems opportunistic. If random still doesn't respond to the case, I'd be willing to join the wagon, but as it is I don't think he's a good lynch target.
^Sidenote: Riddleton's probably town; his cases don't seem scum manufactured.

351 by Aronis is scummy enough to push him into lynchworthy territory, and 382 is enough for my vote. I don't really want to restate WP's and Alchemist's reasons, but I do agree with their thoughts on him.
VOTE: Aronis

Having trouble putting together reads on other people. WP is reading townier so far, so I'm a bit confused on him and Alchemist. Beginning to see them as both town.

[Mathdino]

@wgeurts: I have no scum meta, I haven't finished a scum forum game in my life.

Look, an ABR lynch just isn't going to get momentum this close to the deadline. There are 3 scum. Do you have any other candidates?

[Mathdino]

At this stage in the game, votes should be explained. The other votes I've seen were given some form of reasoning, that vote was not. So I asked why in order to get his opinion on the player.

VOTE: Albert B. Rampage

I found the last scum!

Like nothing he has done has made any sense from a town mindset. He votes town over and over again. This last vote, while not that terrible. Just doesnt make any sense.

Looking over things. I'm starting to wonder if DGB might be scum. Her defense of me just doesn't feel right. I don't feel like I've been playing a very good town game at all recently, so for her to just come in here and townread me like that alone, doesn't seem right, and her iron defense doesn't make me feel any better about it. She's also the leading wagon, so I'm thinking it's potentially an attempt to buddy me, so if she flips scum, my mislynch is set up for the following day.

Agree with Riddleton. ABR seems to still think Riddleton is scum but is willing to compromise because we're nearing the deadline. Meanwhile, Aronis claims that votes should be explained when his only reasoning for voting ABR is that "he votes town", when Aronis himself had a scumread on Alchemist and DGB, and I really doubt that anyone had any fleshed out read of me by post 35. Aronis appears to be attempting to misrep one of the stronger players in this game while throwing suspicion on a ton of people without much explanation. I'm not voting him for lurking, trust me.

[Mathdino]

L-2, 46 hours from the deadline. Claim is possible if L-1 happens within probably the next 24 hours.

[Mathdino]

Unofficial VC.

DrippingGoofball (4): theslimer3, texcat, randomidget [L-4]
randommidget (2): Riddleton [L-6]
Witness Protection (2): DrippingGoofball [L-6]

Aronis (2): Witness Protection, Alchemist21, Mathdino, wgeurts, Albert B. Rampage [L-2]

Albert B. Rampage (1): Aronis [L-6]
Alchemist21 (1): droog [L-6]

Not Voting: nobody

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline: 1 day, 19 hours, 33 minutes

theslimer3 is V/LA indefinitely
Riddleton is V/LA till Nov. 5th

[Mathdino]

I'd like someone to switch to Aronis in order to get a claim and last words out of him before the deadline, if anything.

[Mathdino]

That's a good point, Riddleton. If Aronis flips town, I can see RM as a viable candidate tomorrow.

[Mathdino]

Aronis, both texcat and droog are showing intent. We have MORE than a lynch at this point. Claim.

[Mathdino]

da fuck

If Aronis flips scum, mafia almost definitely have daytalk.

I'm ready for a hammer.

[Mathdino]

This isn't a flavour game, no way he's cooking up a fakeclaim with the mod. If Aronis is scum, it's likely he's asking the scumteam for claiming suggestions.

In which case I'd guess DGB's town.

[Mathdino]

If you're an informative PR, then you'd have to prepare to discuss targets and ways of proving yourself.

Regardless of your claim, you may want to be coming up with viable CC strategies.

Or maybe you're just WIFOMing. I don't know. Why would you NOT claim with 3 people willing to hammer?

[Mathdino]

Yeah well we're gonna hammer you ANYWAY if you don't claim at all; 2 people said they're willing to jump on and DGB will hammer if you don't claim.

[Mathdino]

Aronis pulled this BS as a VT in this game. Not sure how notable because I don't have a scumgame where he was forced to claim.

[Mathdino]

=23451#p5809057]The posts in question. He softclaimed PR, then claimed VT, then waffled and ended with a "fuck you all".

[Mathdino]

Then what the hell do you expect us to do? Do you have no defence at all? Why is this 'tradition' a hindrance if you're gonna be lynched anyway?
Are you claiming VT?

[Mathdino]

This aronis wagon is interesting. I look forward to it developing.

VOTE: randomidget

[Mathdino]

Is there a word for the combination of VCA and NKA? Regardless, here are the logs of all D1 votes (->), unvotes (XX), and reasons. Known townies are green.

Spoiler: List of Votes

wgeurts

->

randomidget

, 1, RVS

AdrienC

->

Chaco/texcat

, 1, RVS

Riddleton

->

wgeurts

, 1, "I don't like his responses to this game thus far."
Mathdino ->

Alchemist

, 1, RVS

Alchemist

->

randomidget

, 2, presumably RVS

droog

->

randomidget

, 3, wagoning
Mathdino XX

Alchemist

, 0
Mathdino ->

AdrienC

, 1, use of RQS

ABR

-> Mathdino, 1, unknown

wgeurts

XX

randomidget

, 2

wgeurts

-> Mathdino, 2, this page should explain it.

wgeurts

XX Mathdino, 1, "Your answers please me."

wgeurts

->

randomidget

, 3, "I believe that post wasn't sarcasm and is actually an attempt to look like town being sarcastic."

Witness Protection

->

Alchemist

, 1, "I'd almost bet [his fake role claim] was a cue to the scum that he's the traitor."

theslimer

->

AdrienC

, 2, RVS

randomidget

->

droog

, 1, "Fluff posting."

randomidget

XX

droog

, 0, (a page later) "My reasons for voting were a misunderstanding."

Alchemist

XX

randomidget

, 2

Alchemist

->

theslimer

, 1, have a minicase

ABR

XX Mathdino, 0

ABR

->

droog

, 1, "I don't feel like he's being genuine. It may have to do with his posting style, it may not."

ABR

XX

droog

, 0, "droog's comment about contradictions is right."

ABR

->

Alchemist

, 2, "I'm getting a bad vibe from Alchemist. His posts seem manufactured. Possibly scum with Witness."

randomidget

->

ABR

, 1, "I'm really starting to dislike ABR. Pretty much the same reasons as stated by witness with the addition of preflip associations."

Riddleton

XX

wgeurts

, 0

Riddleton

->

randomidget

, 3, "quick to jump on cases and for the wrong reasons" and "quick-and-snappy comments"
Mathdino XX

AdrienC

, 1
Mathdino ->

droog

, 1, "subtly encouraging a slimer wagon by discrediting while keeping him as a townread"

Alchemist

XX

theslimer

, 0, "I suppose you have a fair point."

droog

XX

randomidget

, 2

droog

->

Alchemist

, 3, "for what i said earlier about rampage and alchemist not being town v town"

AdrienC

XX

texcat

, 0, "Oh wow, my vote was still on him from RVS?"

texcat

->

AdrienC

, 2, "But I really dislike the fact that..."

ABR

XX

Alchemist

, 2

ABR

->

Riddleton

, 1, unknown
Mathdino XX

droog

, 0
Mathdino ->

AdrienC/DGB

, 3, "my top scumread is Adrien right now"

AdrienC/DGB

->

Witness Protection

, 1, "It's all sit-on-fence slippery wishy-washy stuff."
Mathdino XX

DGB

, 2
Mathdino ->

Witness Protection

, 2, "0 strong townreads this entire game"

randomidget

XX

ABR

, 0

randomidget

->

DGB

, 3, reaction to DGB's reason for voting WP

Witness Protection

XX

Alchemist

, 1

Witness Protection

->

Aronis

, 1, "He's calling slots town or scum in ways that make me think he's trying to stay with popular opinions, rather than trying to solve a puzzle."

Alchemist

->

Aronis

, 2, "looks like he's keeping his options open for a mislynch"

ABR

XX

Riddleton

, 0

ABR

->

DGB

, 4, "No one wants to vote Ridleton right now"

Aronis

->

ABR

, 1, "He votes town over and over again. This last vote, while not that terrible. Just doesnt make any sense."
Mathdino XX

Witness Protection

, 1, "WP is reading townier so far"
Mathdino ->

Aronis

, 3, due to 351 and 382

wgeurts

XX

randomidget

, 1

wgeurts

->

ABR

, 2, case

wgeurts

XX

ABR

, 1, "His meta doesn't add up to my theory then."

wgeurts

->

Aronis

, 4, "your post that was an obvious attempt at restarting the wagon looks bad"

ABR

XX

DGB

, 3

ABR

->

Aronis

, 5, here's his reaction to Aronis's 438

Riddleton

XX

randomidget

, 0

Riddleton

->

Aronis

, 6, to put him at L-1 for a claim

DGB

XX

Witness Protection

, 0

DGB

->

Aronis

, 7, HAMMER TIME

Riddleton, don't write off NKA so soon. There's always a reason for the NK. In this case I'd guess it's because DGB is extremely experienced and likely to be able to catch the scum in the future. The people that voted DGB are Witness Protection, ABR, and randomidget. The people that DGB voted are Witness Protection and Aronis. While this doesn't necessarily point to RM being scum, I think it's certainly consistent, as 2/3 of RM's votes were on experienced players (we didn't have time to see if he'd vote Aronis).

The order of Aronis's wagon: Witness Protection, Alchemist, Mathdino, wgeurts, ABR, Riddleton, DGB. texcat and droog also were willing to hop wagons, and RM said he found the wagon 'interesting'. Of these, besides me, I think I find ABR's votepost towniest. If there were scum on the wagon, I'd point to the beginning, with WP and Alchemist. It's still notable that ABR's hypothesis of Alchemist and WP probably not being scum together very much rings true here.

There's probably more stuff that can be gleaned here; I'm still a huge amateur at VCA. Will get back to this.

[Mathdino]

Town: wgeurts, alchemist, witness, droog and slimer.
Null: aronis, texcat, mathdino and riddleton.
Scum: dripping goofball and albert.
I will explain when I'm properly awake.

Randomidget's reads earlier. From my perspective, there are 2 townies in the Null section, a confirmed townie in the Scum section, ABR in scum (I think he's town), and Riddleton in null (I think he's town too). Relevant? Likely. I'm guessing if RM is scum he's not even trying to go for distancing here.

Separate note:

Back to WP and Alchemist

. Here's WP first voting Alchemist. I realised a problem with this, and that's "If WP is scum, why would he try to point out a possible traitor?" It's notable that during RQS WP said he'd pick no powerups. Granted, it's possible this is all WIFOM and the traitor was already recruited, but still, townpoints for WP.

Yet on Alchemist's side, he points this out here (the fact that scum wouldn't respond to possible traitors in thread), yet inexplicably maintains a scumread on WP (on a sidenote, RM claims that WP vs Alchemist is TvT).

WP then comes up with 343 in response to some of my 'lack of townreads' suspicions, which honestly screams town to me. Scum already know who's town, it shouldn't be that hard to come up with a truthful or lying answer to "Who are your townreads?". WP's Aronis votepost seems fairly townish when it comes to his thoughts on Aronis. HOWEVER, I really can't say I like this:

I'm not too interested in lynching Alchemist ATM. There's too many slots trying to link us together, and I'd bet at least one of them are scum. If I was more confident on Alchemist being town, I'd try to force them to place their money where their mouths are.

He seems a little overdefencive of being accused of some sort of link, when a lot of the 'links' people were coming up with involved one of them being scum and one being town.

Alchemist's votepost, in which he switches to a townread on WP and practically sheeps WP's end-of-post summary but switches the wording around. Fishy, fishy. And then Alchemist enters the "WP-himself" link discussion here. I'll be honest, I don't know what to make of it. I do find it odd that Alchemist doesn't seem to consider the possibility that WP is even scum here though, instead commenting on what scum plans would be if they were both town.

I honestly wasn't sure where this would take me, but I'm still convinced there's an association to be made here. The interactions between them definitely don't read as both scum, especially due to WP's initial going after Alchemist and the proximity of their voting. However, there's enough fishiness with the interaction that if I had to guess, I'd say WP is town due to his multiple apparent townslips, and Alchemist is Alscumist who knows WP is town and is changing his read on him to justify actions like hopping on the Aronis wagon.

Conclusion:
I'd rather lynch RM first just in case it gives us info on these two.

Slight slight FoS: WP

FoS: Alchemist

[Mathdino]

You speak as if this was a well developed suspicion (droog votepost). Or this (ABR votepost). Or this (DGB votepost).

You speak as if you followed through and developed these reads.

You speak as if this was anywhere near a well developed defence to Riddleton's ACTUAL well developed suspicions.

You speak as if your posts have been at all useful this game, as if you haven't yourself fluff posted when that's exactly why you apparently wanted to lynch droog.

Actually, no, never mind. You speak as if you're scum.

[Mathdino]

Yo droog

, haven't seen you go after RM since we were in random wagon mode, though I recall you saying you liked Riddleton pushing him. Thoughts on RM?

I'm inclined to agree with you on Alch's post since RM's almost a surefire lynch today anyway; bussing his partner would probably be the correct move here if they're a team. But I still think RM lynch gives us more info, and simply by policy, RM's been a lot more useless to us than Alch.

[Mathdino]

On another sidenote, I'm under the impression slimer is a common D1 mislynch target, so I gave him a free pass on most things yesterday, but his D2 play isn't making me feel any more comfortable. One of your few good contributions, slimer, was providing DGB meta (thought you didn't unvote despite your doubts), and now you appear to be using that D2 for towncred (at least that's how I see it).

Reads, I want reads, there's been more than enough material for reads by now. So far I've literally seen your reads on two (2) players: DGB and me (who you townread for not even having strong reads). Lemme spark ya:

Slimer, thoughts on Riddleton vs randomidget?
Thoughts on Witness Protection and Alchemist?
Thoughts on ABR?
Anything you can draw from our last 2 flips?

Edit: Sweet, thanks for showing up, texcat. All your reads were on dead people.

Texcat, I'd like you to answer the above questions too (if you don't already when you re-evaluate)

.

[Mathdino]

wgeurts' "you're a good scumhunter" is completely contrived. I've seen this behavior many times before, and 2 times out of 3, it's from scum. Town is more paranoid than to just make a blatant of appeal to authority a la "you're good, right? do something". This is cheeky scum. Combined with his Aronis vote and behavior yesterday, I'm going to say that he's the best possible candidate for lynch today.

No, I'm sorry, no, I agree with your other 3 scumreads but you should understand that wgeurts's meta so far is extremely newbtown. Appealing to authority like that is exactly what he would do as any alignment. He may be scum, sure, but there's nowhere near enough to say yet.
wgeurts lynch also gives us like no information.

1) texcat is scum who killed his scumreads
now he can say 'still need to find new ones'
and bask, like he did in 354

2) mafia thought texcat would be an easy lynch

im leaning 1

This makes no sense to me.

1) Why would scum kill their scumreads? Please explain why that would be a good strategy for scum.
Basking? Really? Why on earth would I be basking when my scum reads flipped town? No sense.

2) Huh? Yeah, I might be an easy lynch, though I always try not to be. But I certainly don't get the dichotomy. Either I'm scum that killed my scum reads or I'm an easy lynch?? How are those 2 things even related?

Consider: if the wagon on said scumreads falls through, then you have to either be inconsistent or tunnel all day. In this example, DGB ended the day town as fuck. I doubt a lynch on her would've happened until at least tomorrow. Now you have to formulate new scumreads, and you can easily fake scumreads on the most popular town lynch targets.

If you're town and people suspect you, then yeah, you're an easy mislynch, that's like the definition of one...

I'd be laughing so hard if texcat just bussed her partner back there though.
I'd appreciate if you answered the rest of my questions.

[Mathdino]

What up. Town is {droog, Riddleton, ABR, wgeurts}.

Scum is {randomidget, Alchemist, theslimer} and much lesser scumreads on {Witness Protection, texcat}. Like I said, I don't think WP and Alchemist are the same alignment. I'd say texcat is more likely to be scum if RM flips town.

[Mathdino]

You're clearly already having trouble un-tunneling her. I find that the way she stepped up and handled Aronis was very un-scummy, but then again, I never had a scumread on her in the first place. My point is not that YOU'D find her townish but that the rest of the town would.

Tunneling is bad, mkay? Impedes discussion and gives us less information in the end. We need more interaction in general so we can analyse it later on. Even if you tunnel a scumread, guess what? There are other scum out there, and there's nothing wrong with continuing to speculate on other scumreads.

Yes, that's what I meant. By Riddleton vs randomidget I mean what do you think of randomidget and Riddleton's case on him. By WP and Alchemist, you can just ISO the two of them if you're so inclined.

Either way, tunneling takes minimal effort and exposes yourself to confbias. In other words, it's an easy way for scum to cruise.

[Mathdino]

That's L-2.

The above post is good, IMO. Can't say I can give it towncred since those cases were already given, but I agree with it.

[Mathdino]

That's the reason you've been active-lurking all game? You didn't defend anything (The Riddleton Case in particular, along with other questions directed at you) except that post you made on Aronis, because you were sure you'd get lynched today?
wat?

I'll speak for myself here, but lemme tell you a secret: Not defending and "You'll lynch me anyway" is WAY more likely to make me lynch you than defending yourself, making a case, explaining your views, etc.

So yes, it'll make me happy(er). The fact that you've already made that post preempting said views is already kind of nullifying the towncred you'll get from them though, IMO.
In other words, just do it and we'll go from there.

[Mathdino]

Sorry, I didn't read what you said when I typed that. I actually only just read it now, lol.

[Mathdino]

Riddleton seems to agree, and even if I don't trust Alchemist (and I certainly don't trust ABR to self-meta), I trust Riddleton.

Other than that, your points against Alchemist are pretty good. I'll switch if necessary.

[Mathdino]

Can't we policy lynch random midget with the added bonus of him being possible scum more so than others?

Or we could lynch him because he's probably scum and not cry if he's town. Policy lynch D2 is a terrible idea.
If he doesn't get lynched today, it's probably because he became not-useless and thus a LyLo asset.

[Mathdino]

That's the problem with ISOing players alone instead of together.
WP answered that question before slimer replaced in, lol.

Already ISO'd slimer and gave my thoughts. Not sure if you're talking to me though.

[Mathdino]

Whoops, my bad then. I'm still not inclined to think WP erroneously answering a RQS question is scummy though.

[Mathdino]

I don't know. Came up with the idea that slimer replaced in mid-D1, don't know where. How is the fact that I didn't feel like checking scummy?

Thank you for coming up with another reason the point I conceded is wrong. You don't need to prove that anymore.

I find the proposal of RQS scummy. I think some conclusions can be drawn about traitor hunting from the responses. The question of who you've played with before? That's a question that only serves for preemptive meta information, i.e. who can read whom. I don't think WP incorrectly answering that is scummy.

[Mathdino]

I still don't think his answering a meta question wrong is in any way a scumslip. I didn't check because I didn't care much about the point, I didn't feel like it and I'm currently sleep deprived as a result of staying up all night and playing mafia for about 1/3 of my time.

How was that a defence of WP? My read on him is literally unchanged by texcat's case, and I didn't see anything to comment on other than a possible mistake on texcat's part.

I am actually bewildered that you choose to scumread me based on the reasoning of "He's put in so much effort all game, but he didn't put in effort here so he's scum". Jeez.

[Mathdino]

Alchemist, I'm still confused as to where the hell the scumread came from. Correct me if I'm wrong, but this is your version of the events:
1. texcat writes a case on WP.
2. I think she makes a mistake and decide to soft defend WP. Question: Did I defend WP because he's scum or because he's town and I wanted towncred?
3. Turns out she didn't make a mistake, and I didn't check because...? I already knew WP was town and thus had no reason to?

My version of the events:
1. texcat writes a case on WP.
2. I notice a potential error but otherwise don't really have thoughts on the case.
3. Turns out she didn't make a mistake, but I didn't check because A. I didn't feel like it, and B. either way, WP's error in RQS is a nulltell and not at all a slip, so I didn't care.

We on the same page then?

[Mathdino]

Alchemist's scumgame just ended. Reading through his ISO and typing up notes. His partners were Matsumi Sisters and KrystalBald.

He begins bussing MS off the bat and then backed off in response to other players. His reads consisted of an "I don't like" on MS, townreads but fencesitty townreads on 2 townies, null on a townie, buncha WIFOM on a townie, and an unusual sureness about KB's thought process (ostensibly a scumread). His 2nd vote is then another bus. This post pretty much townreads townies and backs off his partner with a "keeping an eye on you". I think

droog

would find this post notable in that it very much takes his votee head on instead of telling everyone else what RM was doing. Same thing here. Then he switches to MS due to not believing their vig claim. 1182 is probably significant in some way, putting here just in case. Note that this post is actually in lieu of a defence, as people were suspecting him at the time.

What do we learn? Alscumist is obsessed with early bussing on D1 but then proceeds to try to link his scumpartner with townies. He's also very much not defencive, opting instead for a "best defence is a good offence" type play. He also has a higher tendency of voting for the lynch instead of for pressure, and backpedaling after negative reception to his suspicions.

Overall, there's not much consistency between his play this game and his play that game. It's possible he's manipulating meta, but this game does seem a lot more defencive than aggressive. His votes would normally have more reasoning attached.

I do want to ask a question though:
"This vote will come off if Aronis can provide a satisfactory reads list."
Here, your vote did not come off. You didn't even really display suspicion for Aronis here, or a reason your vote stayed.

Can you reconcile this, Alchemist?

[Mathdino]

I'm not defending WP. My read on him is unchanged; a slight scumread but not as strong as my other ones. By pointing out an error in 1/3 of texcat's case on him, do you think I was attempting to defend?
Trust me, if I wanted to defend him, I'd come up with a way to tear that case apart. But as it is, it doesn't look bad.

The scum PT thing is kinda stretching it, man. I honestly thought slimer replaced in after RQS even happened.
If there's one thing I learned, it's don't try to psychoanalyse apparent scumslips too hard. Don't even try to psychoanalyse players too hard; it makes you confbias yourself by coming up with a semi-plausible scenario that while possible, is pretty unlikely when you look at it objectively. Also, when looking at slips, you have to answer the question of whether said slips are consistent with that person being town. If not, scumslip. If so, it's probably a mistake and there's nowhere you can really go with the case or the pressure.

Again, if you've got any other reasons I'm scum, I'd be happy to talk you through my thought process.

[Mathdino]

It's because he's talking about claiming and information in a "I'm scum and I want moar info" type way.

That's just wgeurts.

He needs to work on not being so claimhappy but that's not a scumtell for him.

Unless you saw something else. ISO him and see what you find?

[Mathdino]

This case by me also adds 'hypocrite' to RM's list of offences.
Exaggeration? Probably true, wgeurts is cracking down a little hard on the lurking point.
Emotional? Also true. wgeurts is a sometimes emotional player.

I don't buy the wgeurts case, sounds like you're voting him for tunneling and being wrong in your eyes.

[Mathdino]

Speaking of uselessness I want reads and explanations from said reads from textcat and slimer. Stop lurking and so something, you're both only above midget for this on my reads.

WTF?

Are you even reading the thread? I gave my reads just yesterday. Twice. And

HOW DARE YOU

link me and Slimer in the same sentence like that

!

Perhaps

you should quit demanding so much and try focusing more on your own reading and reads

.

Whooaaa, ding ding ding. Everything I bolded reads as extremely forced AtE to me. Big difference between this and what I'd expect from a town blowup. I don't like how this quote switches back and forth between rage and calm sentences. I don't like the defenciveness about being linked with slimer. The insolence, while amusing, reads extremely fake.

Is this some kind of reaction test to see what I do when I get pissed off?

If it is, it just went remarkably well.

UNVOTE: randomidget
(partially because I trust wgeurts's ability to metaread for now, although another opinion would be fantastic)
VOTE: texcat

[Mathdino]

Yeah, sure, I'll write up an analysis by tomorrow.

When you're metareading texcat, look specifically for towncat blowing up in similar fashions after being suspected. One instance of that would kind of nullify the AtE point.

[Mathdino]

Uh, the apparent inconsistency you're pointing out with midget isn't actually inconsistent. Will let him answer though.

[Mathdino]

Still not inconsistent, wgeurts. Annoying, but not inconsistent.

RM is correct in that he never said he was lurking to avoid getting lynched. You're blatantly misrepping here. "Imma lurk because this game is pointless and I die no matter what I say" is different from "Imma lurk because that way I may not die."

[Mathdino]

Agree with Riddleton on wgeurts; he's definitely not the best person to be pushing and interrogating RM (his case does kinda suck), and his claimhappiness isn't quite pro-town, but the key is that what he's doing is still consistent with wgeurtown.

Still suspicious of RM as of this page. He's still responding very poorly to pressure.

@mod: I'm not voting RM.

Damn you wgeurts for distracting people from texcat though.

Can I get some input from people on texcat's blowup?

My bad. Fixed.

~mod

[Mathdino]

Oh, yeah, the 5th thing was supposed to be
I'm going to shelve the WP and Alchemist analysis for now. Still got a pretty good scumread on Alchemist but I want to see what happens with WP's replacement.

[Mathdino]

I found this gem of an ISO last week that pretty much exemplifies newbscum behaviour. Newbscum is just bad lying and obviously bad lying, along with behaviour that pushes a very transparent agenda inconsistent with them as town.

[Mathdino]

Oh, yeah, and being really uptight about how people view them. Drawing scum for the first time tends to make people a lot more self conscious, so you'll see a lot of trying to be town but not acting town.

[Mathdino]

I think it only takes a few games (even as town) for scumplays to start really diverging. I really like raerae's play from my first game; she'd played a few games offsite but was still kinda new to mafia, so she decided to go all out newbtown act, asking incredibly basic questions and the like. After her partner's flip totally outed her, she went on a full AtE fake insolence which we didn't even realise was fake until we saw her plan it out in the scum PT.

Basically my point is it's different for everyone, you just have to do what you normally do and look for scummy behaviours and fakeness. In this case, I find texcat's rage incredibly fake.

Edit: Eh, I don't really see the association with them, I mean they haven't exactly talked enough for them not mentioning each other to be significant. Agree that it's possible just because they're my top scumreads.

[Mathdino]

I love this post so much. Can I vote texcat again?

It's like you're in your own little world, playing your own little game with Dino, and totally ignoring the rest of us.

Mmm, a possible RM-Textcat (plus some third) could be possible as scum, they've ignored each other all game if you iso them both together. Textcat and RM answer my questions from before and add your thoughts on each other.

Quit lying and

quit lumping me together with scum

. First you were doing it with Slimer and now with RM.

JUST QUIT.

I have given my thoughts on RM more than once. I have said that he is my second candidate for scum, right behind Slimer. I have not ignored him.

Why are you lying?

And not just about me; your lies regarding RM were fairly egregious as well.

Why do you seem so eager for a lynch? And why so eager for claims?

Yes. I do have experience outside of MS. No I do not care to dig up any links. You might be able to find some on the interwebs

if you could spell my name correctly

.

However, you should be reading this thread, which you obviously are having trouble doing.

VOTE: wgeurts Too much sucking up to Mathdino. Too much lying. Too eager for claims.

And I have to say that I am rethinking my position on RM. Alone he still looks scummy,

but wguerts pushing him so hard just makes me think RM might be town

.

Underlined AtE and useless loaded questions. Bolded

direct contradictions

. The OMGUS is in a vote tag. People spell your name like 'textcat' because of phone autocorrections.

I'll echo ABR when I say it's like you never even thought RM was scum.

[Mathdino]

That's why I said I

echoed

him, I know he wasn't talking about you.

How about you explain the contradiction?

[Mathdino]

Over defensiveness is a newb-scum tell

, you are over reacting and your play this game isn't adding up to your ongoing game meta. Also, Mathdino is my highest town read, town should work together to find scum not against each other. Of cause you turn to fireing questions though instead of actually making a defence.
As for the scum slip, his name is RM and my read on him may fully change with your death and flip.

This is not true, and RM has played enough games for newbscumtells to not even apply.

You're all misusing the terms 'scumslip' and 'buddying' btw. If it was a scumslip, then your read shouldn't be changing based on anything other than total explanation of it.

Yeah, and discussion isn't buddying. droog has legitimate concerns about wgeurts. RM and texcat, yours kinda suck.

[Mathdino]

Friendly reminder that the above meta is useless for looking at what scumidget does because multiball is a completely different ballgame.

You should be looking for inconsistencies, if any, between RM and his town meta. If at any point in those games he displays almost the exact same behaviour as he has this game, then our only issue will be getting him to contribute.

[Mathdino]

Damn, that's pretty compelling. We have no 1 team scum meta to look over, it's possible this was his first and he went full apathy since he doesn't get the chance to find scum. I'll switch if it comes to that; still like my vote where it is for pressure.

[Mathdino]

In all his town games, he posted reads with reasons, and they were all within 300 posts of the game's start (excepting N1506 where he replaced in, but even then it was at post 315).

In this game he just gives a reads list, and never cared to explain about half of them. He did explain a few reads after he posted the list, but only a few, and didn't go into the same detail as he usually does. This also doesn't match the style of his ordinary reads list, where he lists the players, and describes his read on them. Here he organizes between town, null, and scum, and then just lists the players he says fall into those categories.

Town: wgeurts, alchemist, witness, droog and slimer.
Null: aronis, texcat, mathdino and riddleton.
Scum: dripping goofball and albert.
I will explain when I'm properly awake.

Alchemist's case.
Context: This game, where he's done basically nothing.
Substance: I prefer not to take other's reasoning and make it look like my own. Alchemist already provided the evidence that shows that he's currently acting completely inconsistent with his town meta and the effort he usually puts into scumhunting. He also seems like he usually tries to put together reads lists instead of getting mad and voting the person who made him mad.

[Mathdino]

I think that wgeurts is scum because of 1) his overeagerness and 2) his inconsistency.

"Vote for rm with me but if you hammer him I will come after you" doesn't seem sincere at all. Maybe they are both scum together and he's giving room for rm to claim and setting up the bandwagon's disintegration. Or he's trying to look like town while voting town. In any case, he's trying hard and I don't buy it.

Whoops, completely missed this post sandwiched in the middle of Alchemist's.

Overeagerness: How wgeurts plays in all his games.
Trying Hard: Synonym for overeager.
Inconsistency: Will let him answer.

Still not buying it. I'll read over his D1 play though and see if that changes.

[Mathdino]

Yeah, uh, ABR...?

Chill.

Someone being wrong doesn't make them scum. Find better reasons.

[Mathdino]

RM's vote on ABR is pretty hypocritical, since he's voting ABR for the same stuff he's admitted to doing himself.

k, thanks, explained why ABR's pissed off better than ABR did.

Due to Alchemist's very nice meta analysis, combined with RM's sucky post (which only came after Alchemist saying he usually gives reads lists), and since none of you seem like you want to get more out of texcat, pretty good with
UNVOTE: texcat
VOTE: randomidget

[Mathdino]

Isn't that first player Aronis?

[Mathdino]

Would like to think that was a townslip from slimer.

[Mathdino]

Mathdino, any progress on the RM meta?
I haven't yet done it however i'm planning to. Also any thoughts on Texcats lurking and avoidance of my questions?

I trust Alchemist not to lie especially as he provided evidence, and I don't really have much motivation to go and read through RM's games now that 2 people have offered metareads on him.

As it is though, given the meta on the two of them, RM looks like a far better lynch. Texcat is relatively new and my scumread on her is mostly gut due to her posts looking pretty fake. This may be a misread due to the medium (writing not speaking).

RM though, RM should know better than how he's played this game.

[Mathdino]

texcat, I agree on your defence (I didn't vote you for not answering his questions), but respectfully, I think that's a shit theory.

Being on a wagon and getting pissy at people who hammer is exactly what I do as town. A quickhammer without a claim is not beneficial to town. Again, check droog if you want legit reasons wgeurts might be scum (which are mostly nullified by meta, but whatever). But your'e accusing someone of being scum for pro-town behaviour.

Yeah, and your NKA in no way implicates wgeurts, that makes no sense. Also NKA sucks if the NK was pretty obvious. In this case, DGB is just a damn good player and there's little chance she'd let herself get lynched.

I'll tell you the same thing I told Alchemist: Don't try to psychoanalyse the scum and come up with whack scenarios for their actions. While they may be plausible, the likelihood that you just guessed exactly what the scum was thinking is insanely low and only leads to confbiasing yoruself.

Edit: Was Aronis really a deadline lynch though? I do want to get some more out of slimer and WP's replacement. Note that the mod'll prolly freeze the deadline to let WP's slot catch up.

[Mathdino]

8 days, lol. ABR is a tiny bit lynch happy here.

@texcat: I have an explanation for this, but I wasn't the one who did it.

@wgeurts: Why did you try to strongarm texcat into claiming 4 times?

[Mathdino]

wgeurts is right that claiming at L-1 is tradition; I just thought he wanted to speed up the due process so someone like Aronis doesn't run out the deadline.

Claims provide info as to the viability of the lynch. Obviously I'm not gonna be trying to strongarm a claim out of droog since he's not a lynch target. I get what wgeurts is saying but I think his logic just comes across a little awkwardly (and he got a little obsessive back there with the tunneling).

texcat, you willing to vote RM?

[Mathdino]

I think it's a better case. I think

it's possible, if unlikely, that RM is clueless town

. Slimer seems more deliberate in his actions.

Wguerts, I am not lurking and I already answered your questions.

Alchemist,

It's possible that Wg and RM are both scum

and that's why Wg threatened anyone who hammered RM. I find that extremely unlikely. I think it much more likely that Wg is scum who knows that RM is town but very much wanted him to claim because he suspects he has some sort of power role. I also suspect that was the reason for DGB's death last night. The scum must have thought she had a power role.

I ask, texcat, because I'm a little confused as to your current read on RM since most of the latter half of your ISO has been bickering with wgeurts.

[Mathdino]

Oh yeah, sorry, didn't notice that part. Was ctrl+Fing all sentences in your ISO containing 'RM'. My bad.

What are your reads on me, droog, and ABR?

Edit: Ehhhh. I can see how one might come to the conclusion that wgeurts vs RM is TvS. Logic errors and lack of scumhunting savviness are newbie errors more often than not.

I'm currently more interested in RM given the last 2 pages. Gonna have to be a little closer to the deadline before I stop voting my top suspect at any given point.

ABR, you seem more obsessed with getting a lynch fast than wgeurts is with getting a claim. Kinda looks like you're going for low-hanging fruit here tbh.

Edit2: The above post seems to make sense from her standpoint.

[Mathdino]

Actually, I'm gonna withhold comment on this. Ignore my question, continue on, ABR.

[Mathdino]

The weird thing is I could probably see a ABR/wgeurts scumteam after looking through ABR's ISO. It's like they switch back and forth between being in sync "CLAIM NOW, LYNCH PLS" and ABR hardbussing wgeurts.

[Mathdino]

If texcat is town and believes RM is town, that's not intentionally not helping.

If RM is town and believes texcat isn't the scummiest person, that's not intentionally not helping.

We don't need a lynch RIGHT NOW, ABR. I really do want to wait for WP's replacement so we can get a new voice here.

texcat, just to be clear, you're not intentionally not responding, right? Not sure if you left or not.

Edit: Lol at RM jumping on what I just said.

[Mathdino]

That... was an excellent metaphor. xD

[Mathdino]

Eh, I'd say if it's reasonable then it's no problem . If my explanations became unreasonable, that's when you tell me I'm being stupid.

So hang on a second, you're not willing to change your vote to a scumread that you

just called out

because someone told you to? Contrarian much? Vote your suspects and tell people you'll vote independent of them if you want to be all indignant.

Edit: Pretty sure 802 was ABR's response.

Edit2: You know what, sure. RM gets closer to a lynch and I'm cool with day ending though, we're going with that.

UNVOTE: randomidget
VOTE: texcat

[Mathdino]

*"

If

RM gets closer to a lynch and I'm cool with the day ending [...]"

droog, thoughts on texcat in last page?

[Mathdino]

rm took what mathdino said and ran with it, it's not believable at all. His post is so short and the theory is so blatantly ripped off that he doesn't even care about getting out of this lynch anymore. He's demoralized.

I have an answer for myself, but why is this demoralised scum and not demoralised town?

[Mathdino]

Jump on the wagon
and see the magic happen
the more votes we're addin
the greater the reaction.

But seriously, join the wagon for now. We're not gonna speedlynch her, don't worry.

[Mathdino]

Have you noticed that texcat is fine when no one notices her and is scummier when people are voting/arguing with her?

Yeah.

That's why I hopped.

[Mathdino]

The sheeping has become a regular habit for RM. My vote is on Wguerts. I think I already said that I don't respond well to threats, so it's unlikely that I'll move my vote due to ABR's threats.

You don't find this passage terrible? "Uh, so RM is being really bad there, but I'm still tunneling wgeurts and won't consider RM because that's who wgeurts and ABR want to lynch."

Every single one of texcat's scummier posts were reactions. We have time to get reads, Alchemist (ofc, guessing ABR flat out wants a lynch

but screw him, amirite

).

RM is still most likely going to be today's lynch. But this is called using the day to the best of our ability before ABR speedlynches someone.

[Mathdino]

Not a bad call, Riddleton. Certainly consistent. All game they've been fairly slippery when it comes to talking about each other. Observe:

I have weak scum reads on alchemist and Albert, and coupd see texcat being scum.

Includes texcat in scumreads, doesn't mention her at in any other fashion.

Spoiler: RM and texcat mentions of each other

Mmm, a possible RM-Textcat (plus some third) could be possible as scum, they've ignored each other all game if you iso them both together. Textcat and RM answer my questions from before and add your thoughts on each other.

Quit lying and quit lumping me together with scum. First you were doing it with Slimer and now with RM. JUST QUIT. I have given my thoughts on RM more than once. I have said that he is my second candidate for scum, right behind Slimer. I have not ignored him. Why are you lying? And not just about me; your lies regarding RM were fairly egregious as well. Why do you seem so eager for a lynch? And why so eager for claims?
[...]
And I have to say that I am rethinking my position on RM. Alone he still looks scummy, but wguerts pushing him so hard just makes me think RM might be town.

Original blow up at wgeurts. Tells wgeurts to quit lumping him with scum, saying she's talked about RM multiple times before, followed by slamming wgeurts for 'lies regarding RM' and using wgeurts as an excuse to be one of the few people in this game townreading RM. Let's see where she talked about RM before.

Riddleton's case 280 was a good early case on RM. Although, I confess that it looks much better than it originally did, due to RM's lurking and dodging. As I already said, RM is second on my scum list behind Slimer, and followed by WP.

RM is 2nd on her scum list, consistent. Let's look at what she already said.

I think it's a better case. I think it's possible, if unlikely, that RM is clueless town. Slimer seems more deliberate in his actions.

Says the slimer case is superior to the RM case. In essence, scumreads texcat but handwaves in favour of slimer. And back to the beginning with the first mention of RM...

In other news, I can see the reasons for the push on RM. And has he gotten quieter since he started getting more suspicions? I think Slimer is a better candidate though. Witness is on my FOS list. I'd like to hear more from him. For some reason this post stood out to me, [WP quote and analysis].

Understands the RM wagon, puts suspicion on him, but then analyses slimer's ISO and WP's posts.

Texcat null-leaning scum - I am starting to get thebfeeling this ia maufactured. If he is scum I wouln't be surprised if someone voting him is scum.

And for bonus points, RM 'starting to get the feeling' that texcat may be scum, but still pretty much ignoring her.

Oh, yeah, and I forgot to add this to the quote list:

I'm treating it as null as it looks town but could fairly easily be fake.

What do we learn?

They've been deflecting very basic suspicion onto each other for most of D2, but at almost no point were they real lynch candidates for each other. RM pretty much ignores texcat and doles out nullreads and scumreads without analysis. Texcat claims she's discussed RM multiple times, but every point where she apparently pointed out that he was her "2nd lynch candidate" she immediately proceeded to ignore that and make a case on slimer. Also seems to be retconning her own thoughts, as she had not actually 'already said' he was her 2nd lynch candidate when she said that in 593.

Basically, it's hard to get them to talk about each other. ABR tried. texcat came up with a lame contrarian excuse. They give unfounded reads for each other which are usually fairly wishy-washy and seem like they can pretty much change at any point. Compare: which is more likely to believably shift, texcat's read on wgeurts, or texcat's read on randomidget?

I think Riddleton is probably right.

[Mathdino]

Why not today? RM's wagon has more support than texcat's.

[Mathdino]

@ABR: People willing to vote RM are me, Alchemist, Riddleton, wgeurts, you, maaaybe slimer.
People willing to vote texcat are me, you, wgeurts, Riddleton, maaaybe droog, and Alchemist will have to be convinced.

Okay actually there wasn't as much disparity as I thought. It seems unlikely we're gonna be able to get a lynch without WP's replacement's support though. slimer doesn't seem to give a shit, droog is still going after wgeurts, and texcat and RM won't seem to actually make a hard stance on each other.

If you're going for a speedlynch, ABR, the wagon will have to be me, you, Alchemist, Riddleton, wgeurts, and droog.

@RM: Nice deflection, 828 is literally the opposite of defencive.

[Mathdino]

ABR, you're kind of sucking at convincing people right now, jussayin.

droog I can explain my own views on texcat if you want. I'd suggest you read the RM/texcat case last page.

[Mathdino]

droog, I don't think you've fully explained why you think wgeurts is the best lynch, besides a fair amount of gut. The burden is on you to convince us of your lynch targets before defence and stuff happens. Regardless, to respond to what you

have

said,

something about the way he's positioning this lynch
not that he wants a claim but that
random midget is useless without one

I explained this already; wgeurts seems very into open setups and I think he'd tunneled RM to an extent that he thought RM would be the only lynch today, and as such he wanted to move things forward.

What do you mean by positioning the lynch?
Also, is Random Midget useful in your eyes then?

positioning the lynch:
you're setting things up so if rm flips town
you can still say "he was useless, it was a good lynch anyways"

"is random midget useful"
this is a false dichotomy
rm has not scumhunted the most or best, granted
but mafia isnt a game where we lynch whoever is producing the least utiles

You can't see wgeurts screwing up 'anti-town' and 'scummy'? You're right, that's probably what wgeurts is doing, because that's the type of behaviour he knows to go after: uselessness.

i could buy newb wgeurts
he is definitely new to mafiascum

still something in his posts is a little too
trigger happy
like he's trying to get a mislynch

if it was just overexcitedness id rub it off

As I said before, overexcitedness and triggerhappiness is a huge aspect of his current meta. Read it if you want. While there is possible scum motivation with this, wgeurts's overall behaviour this game has been extremely consistent with him being town. The claiming stuff appears to be a result of his newness to MS and not fully understanding the lynch process, and how acceptable it is to push a claim and when.

wgeurts's behaviour also appears very much not-manufactured. His tunneling seems genuine.

On the other hand, texcat's indignation looks insanely fake, she OMGUS'd wgeurts and went full drama on him, and her behaviour toward the RM wagon and wgeurts wagon is INSANELY fishy. Also want to note that apparently her townread on me wavers because I'm unable to see what she sees in wgeurts, and her townread on ABR wavers because he votes her. Not to mention that she refuses to jump on a wagon with her 2nd highest scumread just because of contrarianism.

[Mathdino]

I called out wgeurts multiple times, saying quite a few of his cases were shit. I feel as if his problems with you are actually a misrepresentation of the town as a whole's problems with you. However, I feel like I know wgeurts better than you do, and this behaviour fits town-wgeurts motivation.

texcat, you seem to misunderstand the meaning of consistency. Being willing to change one's reads based on new evidence is, believe it or not, consistent.

His claim nonsense happened before he went after you; it happened with RM first.
Your now town-read is formulated off of pre-flip associations, and that's a terrible reason to townread someone. If you really think wgeurts vs RM is TvS, and they're your top 2 scumreads, is it not beneficial to lynch either of them as it implicates the other?
Of course, the argument that it's TvS is kinda dumb/nonexistent.

What has RM done to show you he's town? Is your read on him seriously dependent on other people's actions? RM if anything has gotten scummier in the past few pages. Is there ANYTHING RM could do besides claiming scum that'd make you willing to vote him?

Edit: Agree with the above. Except I haven't played for 7 years. But I can tell fake emotion. I think.

[Mathdino]

Both Riddleton and I have played with wgeurts. I've at least done extensive meta on wgeurts.

No offence at all to him, but he's just not good enough to do the whole "hides behind others' cases and presents them as his own". Also, the thing with newbscum like I said earlier is they're way self conscious. I really think wgeurts would be self-aware enough as scum right now to understand that trying to strongarm claims out of his scumreads repeatedly would not be received well, and would also be incredibly unlikely to work. Note that he'd also have gotten coaching from the other scum.

droog, do you not find it telling that while one of them is still willing to consider RM scum and that he might be wrong, the other completely writes off the possibility of RM due to this 'treating the other as confirmed scum' thing?

Agree with Riddleton.

[Mathdino]

That's actually a good point.

Anyway, between {Riddleton, droog, ABR}, I can def see a pretty good chance one of you are scum, sure. However it's pointless to try to reverse townreads right now since A. one or more of this will prolly be dead by the time that becomes an issue, and B. lynch candidates are in front of us.

I really don't think we should use associatives to work out texcat/RM/wgeurts tbh, partially due to the traitor issue. Coming up with plausible traitor scenarios will only serve to confbias ourselves. Looking at them individually, wgeurts seems pretty natural (

for him

) and RM and texcat do not in any sense of the word.

[Mathdino]

Alright, droog.

I don't care to extend this argument out to a few pages so this isn't going anywhere without A. more input from the main suspects, B. slimer deciding to give a shit, or C. WP getting his slot filled.

Edit: Dude. It's D2. I already thought of this. No matter what, scum talked at night, unless someone decided to flake on the scum thread.
Your "deflect suspicions back at the other person" is getting more and more tenuous by the post, texcat.

[Mathdino]

I'm not saying one of my 3 townreads IS scum, I'm agreeing with droog that it's a possibility while also saying it'd be dumb to dwell on that right now. Like I said, I can see a ABR/wgeurts team if I'm wrong about texcat.

[Mathdino]

I don't want to dwell on the possibility of a traitor at the moment, it's irrelevant

agreed

Then why did you bring it up earlier?

i have no filter

This is why droog is town, btw.

[Mathdino]

I agree with you; I never suggested otherwise. I think his free-flowing posts are townlike to me. They don't feel forced or constructed.

Yes I know. I was talking to everyone else, haha.

Again, this discussion isn't gonna go anywhere. We have a week to the deadline, and I'm fairly certain we're all willing to switch as it gets closer if our personal choices don't go through.

Let's wait for more input. Or argue with texcat.

[Mathdino]

Guys we get it, we've all played with wgeurts, we all see different motivations. This argument won't be fully resolved until today's flip, let's face it.

[Mathdino]

The point is to give a chance for Waffle to claim what role he has. If it's a Cop or something, usually you don't lynch him and allow scum to kill or not kill them and then re-assess the next day.
Pretty basic play, really.

According to Thor (our IC) declaring intent is "pretty basic play". You must of missed that.

For a second there I thought I was sleepy high and somehow realized I overlooked thor in this game

slimer, stop being useless. Read the game. If you want, just read the ISOs of RM, texcat, wgeurts, and if you really want to, Alchemist, WP, and ABR.

But seriously. Participate. Or get replaced or policied. Who's in your lynchpool today?

Also I approve of the above post.

[Mathdino]

^This is a bad and opportunistic post. slimer lurking does not mean he's scum (though it may mean he should just replace out). Lynch All Lurkers on D2 is a terrible policy. Furthermore, slimer's site activity has dropped considerably (I know because I'm following one of his games). We're not lynching slimer.

texcat

, why is RM not viable then? He's been lurking all game. He only provided a (shitty) reads list after everyone talked about that being what he does as his town meta. And then he went back to sheeping. Your resistance to the possibility of RM being your top lynch candidate is insane.

@droog: Here's the problem with the wgeurts case as a whole. Yes, he displays scummy behaviour. Yes, he commits standard tells such as going with the town (sheeping) and seemingly aiming to please.
But if you're able to come up with one likely scenario in which case his entire behaviour is

consistent

and makes sense as town, then the case is nullified. The scum are the people you can't come up with a reasonable scenario in which they're town, where they're inconsistent with their townie selves. The town are the people you can't come up with a reasonable scenario in which they're scum (other than spending the entire game trying to look town obv).

Everything about the wgeurts case has a very reasonable explanation. While he shows tendencies of scum players, and while some things he's done may benefit him as scum, there's a very reasonable possibility that everything came from a town mindset.

texcat and RM, not so much. Observe the inconsistency in the above post.

[Mathdino]

no
you need to prove that the event is likely

the case that wgeurts is newb town
asserts that wgeurts' mistakes are likely newb

this is the same as asserting that wgeurts' mistakes are likely town
which begs the question:
'newb wgeurts implies town, since town wgeurts is a newb'

This is a very good point, and I can't really do much more to prove to you he's likely town, since a lot of my town-wgeurts case is based off of me gutreading him as a player whose style I know fairly well.

I will concede that if RM and texcat don't both flip scum, I'm gonna start really rethinking my read on wgeurts.

[Mathdino]

If I understand droog correctly, wgeurts, he's willing to lynch both, but since it's a week to the deadline, he's choosing to go after and push his strongest scumread for now. And if your wagon isn't an option for today, he'd be willing to switch. Same with me, pretty much.

[Mathdino]

^Racist

But seriously, you should hop on the texcat wagon now. Watch the reactions fly in.

[Mathdino]

Alchemist, why don't

you

? You stated just as much willingness to vote texcat as droog. Let droog stay on wgeurts (since he's been pushing wgeurts a lot more than you have) and declare intent on texcat if it comes to that.

[Mathdino]

Can I just point out that being newb scum doesn't make you drop scum tells. Player's have different styles.

How is this relevant?

[Mathdino]

texcat needs to claim, yes.

And texcat, if you try to turn that around and OMGUS every player who ran you up, I will personally canvas every other living player to hammer you.

[Mathdino]

Dammit. Dammit to hell. If there's another goon cop, don't CC. If there's a bodyguard, protect texcat. texcat, would recommend investigating Alchemist or WP. Up to you ofc.

UNVOTE: texcat
VOTE: randomidget

Edit: Probably from the setup??

[Mathdino]

DO NOT COUNTERCLAIM.

If texcat manages to survive for the next few nights, she's confirmed scum. Just keep gathering results and if you die, it'll show in your reads.

[Mathdino]

randomidget is getting lynched today. So yeah, don't investigate wgeurts if you're so sure it's TvS.

droog is obv town. Not sure about Riddleton, RM's flip may help with that. slimer is a useless investigation, no point in inving lurkers whose confirmedness won't help.

So yeah, Alchemist, WP, ABR, and maaaaybe Riddle is what I'd go for.

Edit: GUYS. If someone CC's, then we lose one of the most important PRs and probably someone with more experience than texcat. Again, the longer texcat survives, the less likely it is that she's actually a goon cop. So we have that going for us.

[Mathdino]

In what universe is goon cop a shitty role?

[Mathdino]

UNVOTE: randomidget
VOTE: Riddleton

You are not going to out the real cop if texcat isn't legit. The 'paranoia' you're talking about is dumb. What do you think the mafia would prefer: a goon cop with 2 or 3 results racked up but alive for WIFOM, or a dead cop?

Edit: Oh my god, did you just assume the scum have PRs.
Did you seriously just do that.

[Mathdino]

I what universe is a goon cop & mafioso exchange benefiting scum? Paranoia helps scum with things like 'She's still alive!' etc.

Yeah, and 3 inno's benefit town way more than 1 outed scum.

I'm voting you for trying to out the real goon cop if any.

Edit: Yes, this is possible. Also, the goon cop works on everyone but traitor. So 2 people it works on.

[Mathdino]

Actually yeah sorry that vote was me being pissed off about this entire situation.
UNVOTE: Riddleton
VOTE: randomidget

Edit: I get very temporarily pissy.

[Mathdino]

Check the setup, Riddleton. Scum role modifiers do not change the fact that they're goons. 'Strongman', 'ninja', 'bulletproof', all those are modifiers to normal roles.

[Mathdino]

Setup

2 Mafia Goon
1 Mafia Traitor
9 Town
Mechanics

Day start
Role Modifications
Modifications
During pre-game, mafia have 72 hours to select which (if any) of the modifications they want to their team. A maximum of three modifications may be selected.
Bulletproof
Role Cop
JOAT (1 shot Strongman, 1 shot Ninja)
Daytalk (passive ability)
Recruit Traitor as Mafia Goon

Also, furthermore, if the traitor is recruited, it turns into a goon, making goon cop even more useful.

[Mathdino]

Goon cop gets a result of literally 'Goon', 'Not a goon', and 'No result', as texcat says.

[Mathdino]

I disagree. Lying about past actions and admitting it is equivalent to a scumclaim. Calling yourself scum in friggin RQS and calling it a reaction test, is not. There were in fact valid answers to wgeurts's RM question.
I think wgeurts just isn't too amazing at interrogation.

@Riddleton: Then let's ask the mod, and have no one CC until then.

@MOD: Do scum role modifications make them immune to goon cop investigation? Does traitor recruitment make it immune to goon cop investgiation?

[Mathdino]

Riddleton, here's the thing. The point of this setup is it doesn't want to encourage the scum adding on all the modifications. If all it takes to be completely immune to a role cop is 2 modifications and not recruiting the traitor, isn't this a little broken in the scum's favour? Bodyguard is a crap role with the exception of other PRs, inno child is just killable, vig shots tend to skew the game in the scum's favour, etc. Nullifying a whole PR by picking more modifications is completely imbalanced.

And the setup literally does say 'role modifications'. Hell, look at the damn role PMs. Town roles are not modifications, as they don't get "VT with an investigate". Scum roles ARE, seeing as the role PMs literally say "Mafia Goon". Read the setup.

Regardless, Riddleton is definitely town I think.

[Mathdino]

ABR and wgeurts, please get back to RM. And yeah, if RM flips town, I'm almost entirely sure it's gonna be ABR/wgeurts.

[Mathdino]

Regardless, I'm almost 100% sure that texcat isn't scum. There's no way scum-her would decide to come up with "I was roleblocked" when scum could just as easily confirm some townie and be done with it.

Therefore, there is a roleblocker. In the absence of an inno child, there's probably a bodyguard too unless scum went full vanilla. Now the roleblocker needs to not hit said bodyguard or texcat dies. Bodyguard dies no matter what tonight because the only way a bodyguard is useful is if it protects a PR.

So why not just have the bodyguard claim so RB doesn't hit another PR? It doesn't hurt us and if it turns out to be RM or wgeurts or slimer, all the better. Thoughts?

I am not the bodyguard.

Edit: ABR is a very likely wgeurts partner in my eyes. Not going to even consider that until RM is dead though.

[Mathdino]

Guys, think about it for a second. Bodyguard needs to protect texcat tonight. If the scum isn't a team of idiots, they need to shoot the bodyguard to get to texcat, who is a very dangerous role.

So if scum tries to fakeclaim bodyguard, A. it's ballsy and has a fair chance of getting CC'd, and B. if texcat dies, then they're confirmed scum.

Scum wouldn't do that. The reason people shouldn't claim is to not get NK'd. But bodyguard, if there is one, will get NK'd no matter what.

Edit: Dammit Riddleton, think. Why do we typically not want claims?

[Mathdino]

That wording was awkward. If the scum are full vanilla, there may not be a bodyguard. If they did choose a role and town has a third PR, it could be a tracker and not bodyguard.

You are correct. In that case, texcat dies, and the bodyguard claim stuff doesn't affect anyone anyway.

@Riddleton: My goal here is to save town PRs. It'd be idiotic of the RB to just not do anything tonight. However, knowing who the bodyguard is will definitely help make sure RB doesn't fuck up again.

Edit: Omg. Okay so if texcat is scum, she's trying to out PRs. We don't want that. We are

better off

if texcat is scum, because it means the real goon cop, if existent, is still out there gathering results. If said real cop CC's her, we're back to the shitty situation where texcat is telling the truth.

Scum would have to be brain dead to not try to off texcat. If she survives to LyLo, we'll either have enough information to lynch the scum/prove she's legit, or she'll be scum.

[Mathdino]

Furthermore, note that said real goon cop can just as easily claim D3 or D4, and we'd be better off since they'd have more reads without CCing now and getting NK'd.

[Mathdino]

FFS, are you seriously not understanding me? What part of "Bodyguard is going to die tonight anyway" don't you understand?

[Mathdino]

What is the negative utility of a bodyguard claim?

[Mathdino]

You want to look for CC's? Sure.

I am not the goon cop.

Happy?

[Mathdino]

Riddleton, I know you're there, and I know you're reading this.

Unless you really think that I just outed 2/3 of the scumteam, I do not understand what the negative utility in this is. Allow me to explain: (A will be the situation in which BG claims, B will be where it doesn't)

1. texcat is the real GC, and BG is out there. BG protects texcat, BG dies, texcat dies the next night.
1A. BG claims. This means the roleblocker won't hit the bodyguard and fuck over texcat. If scum CC's BG, well, we have scum in there.
1B. BG does not claim. RB has a chance of hitting it and accidentally killing texcat.
2. texcat is scum, and BG is out there. BG protects texcat, BG dies, when texcat manages to survive we know we've caught scum. Alternatively, when the real GC counterclaims AFTER racking up results, we have our scum.
2A. BG claims, same scenario.
2B. BG does not claim. Same scenario.
3. texcat is the real GC, and there is no BG. texcat dies.
3A. We look for a BG claim. Scum claims BG. The moment texcat dies, we lynch that scum for not protecting.
3B. We don't look for a BG claim. Nothing happens.
4. texcat is scum, and there is no BG.
4A. We look for a BG claim. If scum claims BG and neither he nor texcat dies, then we lynch.
4B. We do not look for a BG claim. Same as above, nothing really changes.

[Mathdino]

1) It's a waste of fucking time if the bodyguard is going to target texcat anyway. Why does the bodyguard need to claim?
2) For two, there might not even be a bodyguard anyway. If texcat is genuine, that means there's a RB + goon cop. There are 2 PRs by default; if there's a third one, what makes you say it's a bodyguard and not a Vig or Tracker?


On a personal level, it's bad logic to argue for a bodyguard claim, but against a goon cop counterclaim.

1. So the roleblocker doesn't fuck over texcat accidentally. It narrows the scum pool.
2. I doubt there's a vig, they often shoot N1. If there's a tracker, good for us. Hurrah. I don't say there's a BG, but if there is one, then it's VITAL that no one roleblocks them.

Sorry for the first sentence, I started typing that up as my 4th post in a row.

[Mathdino]

Riddleton, I voted you out of pissiness for the situation that got us to a goon cop claim. I unvoted you because I realised that was idiotic and we were just having disagreements, that you were probably town.

From my perspective, you're being anti-town for fishing for a goon cop CC. From your perspective, I'm being anti-town fishing for a BG claim.

I unvoted you when I sat down and thought about the situation. If this is really what makes you think I'm scum, then sit down, look at how my thought process might have led me to this suggestion, and chill.

[Mathdino]

Let's wait and see just how dangerous my role is.

I PM'd the mod, apparently mafia JOAT and mafia rolecops investigate as 'not goon', so Riddleton is correct here. Recruited traitor, on the other hand, investigates as 'goon'.

I still think the mafia would have to be dumbasses to pick JOAT and rolecop over traitor, however. There's still someone that we can benefit from an investigative result on.

[Mathdino]

You don't want to do goon cop CC anymore? I was against that because I originally thought texcat might still be scum, but atm I'm thinking that's fairly unlikely, so I don't really care about that anymore.

[Mathdino]

Just think about how ballsy texcat's claim would have to be, Riddleton. Not only is it susceptible to a rolecop claim, but it's ALSO susceptible to a roleblocker just being like "Uh, guys, I didn't block texcat at all".

Without an inno child, sooo many factors are at play here that would make that the ultimate bad move for scum. Lemme do the Math for you. If there are 2 PRs, then there is a 7/10 chance the town can CC texcat. If there are 3 PRs (which the scum would know) then there is a 9/10 chance town can CC. If there are 4, there's a 100% chance.

Does that seem like a reasonable move to you?

Edit: Alchemist, I'll call the scum either idiots or texcat. Mull over RM's flip and tex's results and decide whether we want to keep texcat alive for another night and see what scum does. Scum will not leave texcat alive to LyLo, I can tell you that much.

@texcat: Yes, that's exactly what it prevents. The RB hit a PR once before, and since roleblocking is full of WIFOM, I'd guess anyone could be blocked.

@Riddleton: Yes but Riddleton I'm trying to maximise town benefit. Keeping texcat alive for now does exactly that.
If texcat is scum, goon cop CCing would leave us with 2 scum, a dead bodyguard, and by the next day, a dead goon cop. Goon cop NOT CCing would let us come to a verdict when texcat inevitably doesn't die.
Just because it benefits us doesn't make it optimal play. We're already at a disadvantage now that we have a PR claim at all.

Regardless, I'm so sure right now that texcat is town due to the above that I'm going to ask everyone to please repeat the following if true:

I am not a goon cop.

[Mathdino]

Just know that the only reason I'm okay with this is because of texcat saying she got roleblocked. Without that element, which I didn't consider at first, going around for a CC would be a very bad move for town.

[Mathdino]

Neither am I. I'm going with around 90% town.

That said, to even consider the possibility of lynching her today would be dumb. Goon cops get more powerful over time. If texcat is scum and the real GC dies at any time, we lynch texcat. Otherwise, said real GC can easily claim later in the game, which would be far more optimal than claiming now..

[Mathdino]

I'm not saying fakeclaiming goon cop is a good move at all; I'm just saying it's a possibility. Texcat has been amazingly scummy this game so far, and I'm not convinced enough to write a claim off as "100% town let's move on" as you guys are.

I repeat: It's not about the fact that she claimed goon cop. It's the fact that by claiming 'goon cop who got roleblocked', she is doubling the chance that town has a CC ready for her. Even if none of us CC, the very fact that none of us CC a different roleblock on her will make it a tiny, tiny chance that she's scum.

Edit: Shit. Yeah okay bodyguard claim scenario is dumb. See that's why I ask for input other than "that's a shit idea and you're a hypocritical scumbag".

If there's a bodyguard out there, don't claim.

[Mathdino]

You know what, let's make a deal, Riddleton. I am

positive

scum would not be dumb enough to claim, in essence, 2 different PRs.

@Riddleton:

If no one claims goon cop, and no one claims roleblocker, then bodyguard should claim. At that point, the chance that texcat is town is astronomically high, and we really should be working to narrow the pool of roleblock/track/vig targets. Deal?

[Mathdino]

Riddleton, lemme ask you a simple question. Which is more probable (speaking only statistically):

A. texcat is scum after town somehow manages to roll the 10% in which her claim is unCCable, or
B. Roleblocker randomly hits the bodyguard tonight and inadvertently kills texcat?

I can answer the probability of B for you. Since texcat won't get RB'd and the RB won't get RB'd, the chance is 12.5%. I'll crunch the numbers on A real quick.

Edit: Because scum would have to be retards for that and I don't think texcat is a retard. The very fact that she made that semi-elaborate claim proves that she has some understanding of the setup.
Riddleton, nothing is sure. But I choose not to assume scum is THAT idiotic when they could

so easily

just say "I'm a goon cop, I investigated Dino, he's not a goon". Or even better, tell us they investigated their scum PR partner or the traitor and say they're not a goon.
Part of this game is getting into the heads of other people, that's just how it is. I know you're apparently deathly afraid of WIFOM but there comes a point where certain moves by certain people are just not reasonable.

[Mathdino]

uh
k so i don't blame you for not having a full grasp on probability
cuz most people dont
but trust my username here

If the scum selected 0 mods, there are 2 PRs. There are 5C2 possible combinations without inno child. That's 10. There are 3 possibilities that the scum won't get fakeclaimed: Tracker/Vig, Tracker/Bodyguard, Vig/Bodyguard. 70% chance that scum gets fakeclaimed.

If the scum selected 1 mod, there are 3 PRs. There are 5C3 possible combinations without inno child. That's 10. There is 1 possibility that the scum won't get fakeclaimed: Tracker/Vig/Bodyguard. 90% chance that scum gets fakeclaimed.

If the scum selected 2 mods, then there are no possibilities that leave out inno child, goon cop, AND roleblocker.

So yes, you're correct. Scum choose between 1 and 2 PRs most of the time. It'd be a pretty bad game for them if they went with nothing, especially with traitor difficulties/awkwardness and allowing 2 town PRs.
So we can reasonably assume that if texcat is scum, there's a 90% chance she gets fakeclaimed.

QED, bitch.

Edit: Then again, there's a 90% chance that she gets fakeclaimed and goes down. This would benefit the town.

[Mathdino]

uh
k so i don't blame you for not having a full grasp on probability
cuz most people dont
but trust my username here

If the scum selected 0 mods, there are 2 PRs. There are 5C2 possible combinations without inno child. That's 10. There are 3 possibilities that the scum won't get fakeclaimed: Tracker/Vig, Tracker/Bodyguard, Vig/Bodyguard. 70% chance that scum gets fakeclaimed.

If the scum selected 1 mod, there are 3 PRs. There are 5C3 possible combinations without inno child. That's 10. There is 1 possibility that the scum won't get fakeclaimed: Tracker/Vig/Bodyguard. 90% chance that scum gets fakeclaimed.

If the scum selected 2 mods, then there are no possibilities that leave out inno child, goon cop, AND roleblocker.

So yes, you're correct. Scum choose between 1 and 2 PRs most of the time. It'd be a pretty bad game for them if they went with nothing, especially with traitor difficulties/awkwardness and allowing 2 town PRs.
So we can reasonably assume that if texcat is scum, there's a 90% chance she gets fakeclaimed.

QED, bitch.

Edit: Then again, there's a 90% chance that she gets fakeclaimed and goes down. This would benefit the town.

[Mathdino]

Alchemist

,

droog

, please say the following if they are true:

I am not a goon cop. I did not roleblock texcat.

[Mathdino]

Realistically, from past game analysis and the games of Stack The Deck I've played offsite, scum choose between 1 & 2 PRs most of the time. So fakeclaiming isn't

too

horrendous a strategy for scum to do.

What if Texcat is scum who was trying to rolefish for cop AND roleblocker?

You two are introducing needless WIFOM. An unCC'd goon cop fakeclaim is far more powerful than losing a goon while learning who the cop or RB really is.
Guys. Guys.
Why would texcat say she got roleblocked?
Does that seem sensible to you?
Because if not, you're saying that scum-texcat is an idiot with no daytalk, basically.

Alchemist has the only right answer. The only reason scum would further risk themselves and increase the chances they die is if they were fishing for an actual roleblocker. But does

that

seem more sensible to you than just claiming goon cop and hoping to not get CC'd (which is really not that unlikely)?

Edit: So were mine. Read again.

[Mathdino]

What do you propose? We already established that RM is getting lynched if texcat turns up town. I think we need a flip to move forward at this point.

My logic, Alchemist, is only WIFOMable if scum both did the same calculations that I did, knew I would post that and start arguing texcat was town for it, gambled for the 10% chance where she's not CC'd, AND expected no one would be suspicious if a bodyguard or texcat wasn't dead by LyLo. I don't even know texcat won't get CC'd yet. But if she doesn't, I ask again
Does that seem reasonable to you?

The game is going just fine. The game will be worse if texcat is town and somehow dies tomorrow because of another PR screwup.
If RM flips town, then scum is ABR/wgeurts. droog and Riddleton are completely and utterly town. And I'm going to keep the promise I made at the beginning of this day, which was that I'd table Alchemist vs WP until after the RM and texcat stuff happened. After RM is lynched, I'm going back to that for tomorrow, though tbh I'm kind of leaning toward you.
After he's lynched. I already told you I'm not the bodyguard, so I'm currently in rather little danger of dying (if scum's not stupid and texcat is town). There's no pressure for me to scumhunt based on pre-flip assocs AND pre-investigation results AND pre-NK flip results, since I'll still be here tomorrow to go over that.

Which is why I'm trying to prove texcat's town by going around asking people if they're the goon cop or a RB who blocked someone other than texcat.
So

Alchemist,

please say what I asked you to say.

[Mathdino]

So you're telling me you think scum accounted for that probability and

predicted

WP wouldn't get replaced before the deadline? I ask again
Does that seem sensible to you?

You guys are so unable to let go of our prior tunneling that you're focused on coming up with possibilities and other stuff that is insanely unlikely and would require a great deal of idiocy or chance for them to even be possible. You think that 'WIFOM' trumps anything, but it really doesn't. Again, that would require scum to predict all of this would happen, and go for the 90% chance they'd lose texcat just because if they get their 10%, I'm going to tell everyone texcat is town. As opposed to just claiming a PR and hoping to not get lynched.

You saying you can't CC texcat gives scum no hints. If you're the roleblocker, I'm not even asking you to claim roleblocker. I'm asking you to claim RB who hasn't RB'd texcat.
Alchemist, if you're able to CC texcat, you understand that you're basically screwing over our current scumhunting, which for me requires the assumption texcat is town, right?

WP will hopefully get replaced before deadline. I'm requesting an extension if he's not.

[Mathdino]

EBWOP: I'm asking you to claim someone who hasn't RB'd texcat.

ABR, how is this question relevant?

[Mathdino]

FoS: ABR

you look like you're roleblocker hunting, you really do. That question isn't anywhere near worth discussing as it helps mafia narrow down who would do that.

ABR, do you have anything that can confirm that texcat is lying?

[Mathdino]

Read my posts. I'm trying to make it easier for town PRs to not mess with each other tonight, and I'm absolutely not asking people to claim roleblocker. I'm asking people if they have anything to prove texcat is scum. If no one has anything, and I'm almost completely positive they won't because texcat's move makes no sense as town, then we can get a bodyguard claim and make sure we don't screw up tonight again.

[Mathdino]

Goddammit, sleep deprived logic errors. *texcat's move makes no sense as scum

And yes, pondering over why someone would RB texcat tells scum more about who would be willing to. Which is bad.

[Mathdino]

PoE and the insane pushiness on texcat and RM to get claims. Town consists of:

Alchemist, ABR, droog, Mathdino, randomidget, Riddleton, texcat, slimer, wgeurts, and WP's slot.

I'm town. droog and Riddleton are town. texcat is 90% town. randomidget is being lynched. Alchemist, ABR, slimer, wgeurts, WP's slot.
I don't think you and WP are scum together. The complaints against wgeurts are valid with the knowledge of texcat and RM both being town. ABR's interaction with wgeurts read a lot more like bussing than with RM and texcat. I can explain this more later if you want. Trying to make associations like this with the current lynch target will only allow people to adjust their behaviour, though, so I'll discuss this more later. Like I said, since texcat, her bodyguard, or whoever CC's either of them if any is gonna die tonight, I'm not in any danger of this right now, so I can provide full analysis post-flip, post-NK flip, and post-texcat's results.

[Mathdino]

Nothing new except ABR asking that insanely fishy question about the roleblocking choice.

[wifom]Don't get me wrong, I don't know why someone would RB her either,[/wifom] but there is 0 positive utility in discussing it.

[Mathdino]

That... is an excellent point. Furthermore, anyone claiming would be tunneled by the roleblocker for the rest of the game...

Yeah, maybe claiminig isn't such a hot idea.

Vig killing DGB and texcat getting roleblocked is kind of insanely unlikely, sorry.

wgeurts, why don't you put RM at L-1?

Also, that's kind of the point of the roleblocker. Doubt it'd use the ability if it couldn't block kills; it'd hinder town more than scum.

[Mathdino]

wgeurts, the vig theory is subject to the same issues as the original claim does; it requires both goon and vig to not be in the game for that claim to work, and there's a 10% probability of that.

Still thinking about the rolecop theory. I hadn't considered that at all.

Edit: see above.

[Mathdino]

Gooncop, sorry.

[Mathdino]

texcat, I've played 1, but I also kind of stalked his meta for something else, so I was already prepared for this game.

wgeurts, just put him at L-1... the fact that we wagoned texcat instead of randomidget was an arbitrary mistake.
Why would you ask for a claim if you're not willing to vote him?

[Mathdino]

randomidget, if you're town, then we're lynching wgeurts, I promise you that.

But you're not. So claim and let's get this over with.

[Mathdino]

VOTE: RandomMidget
If theres a vig please still claim.

I'd like to veto this.

Your vig theory is bad, I'm sorry. The rolecop theory is good but fishing for a vig claim for something that's insanely unlikely is just bad. Just hope RM is scum, wgeurts.

[Mathdino]

DGB died, not droog, lol.

You're asking for a vig claim, not a "vig who killed DGB" claim. Furthermore vig could've easily killed the same target as scum. If there is a vig, it's not that improbable.

And lol ABR. We'll untangle this tomorrow.

[Mathdino]

Uh, no, the vig might have been not-dumb and decided not to shoot.

And if vig's ACTUAL target didn't go through, it could've been anything from BP to getting roleblocked himself.

But you're forgetting the (I think) 1/11 chance that vig and scum just shot the same person. Let's not have vig claim pls

[Mathdino]

Your collective lack of setup spec savviness is slightly disappointing.

Vig only has to kill if it says 'compulsive' as a modifier. Scum doesn't have to kill, vig doesn't either. Roleblocker exists for the sole purpose of blocking scum's kill. Is why it's so powerful; it confirms someone as scum and protects someone at the same time.

[Mathdino]

Because I'm really just waiting for RM to get in here and claim. Because I'm sure texcat's town, my reads will be based on
1. RM's flip
2. texcat's investigation result
3. The NK flip, who will presumably be the bodyguard.

3 different factors at play here that could negate whatever reads I come up with. And since scum not killing texcat would be dumb, I know it's very likely I'll still be around by tomorrow to make new reads.

Essentially, I'm ready for the day to end, so I'm spending my time arguing setup with wgeurts and Riddleton to maximise the effect of whatever happens at night.

[Mathdino]

Nominate slimer for MVP.

droog, are you declaring intent?

[Mathdino]

FIRST

[Mathdino]

For anyone dead/spectating, we all did a bunch of PMing after the thread was abandoned and apparently what we got was:

texcat/wgeurts were scum, wgeurts was role cop, ABR was traitor. Scum picked daytalk and rolecop.
I was roleblocker.
slimer was vig.
We don't actually know what WP was, but other than that everyone was VT.

So basically texcat tried to kill Riddleton and I roleblocked her, and slimer was actually the one who killed DGB. Which explains pretty much everything after the claiming shenanigans. And also wgeurts suddenly coming up with the vig theory.

[Mathdino]

Goddammit never mind. Didn't see mod post.

[Mathdino]

Given that scum had daytalk, I'd be really interested in seeing those threads.

Can you unlock them, mod?

[Mathdino]

Yeah I pretty much figured "Okay, so the scum wouldn't send anyone who was under fire today to do the kill, so nix randomidget, DGB, ABR, and wgeurts. Shouldn't roleblock a widely townread player because scum knows tracker might take em and if they're a PR we're screwed." So then it was between Alchemist, WP, slimer, and texcat, and I just figured a lurker would be best option.

I'm still not sure whether the lying/misrepping was on purpose. I can definitely see the claimforcing to be on purpose and manipulating his meta to his favour.

[Mathdino]

Yeah, and I mean, going through wgeurts's meta (I even accidentally read some of his games trying to meta other people), there's definitely a lot of that.

texcat, you said you knew I was RB, how'd you figure that? Was it just because I believed you too hard? All the mathematical stuff pretty much came out of my ass, haha. I admit there were quite a few logical fallacies in there.

Edit: nuuuuuu

[Mathdino]

He wasn't on anyone's radar day 1 as far as I know. Just wondering why town would roleblock textcat.

Also this was so scummy from my standpoint I don't even

[Mathdino]

4thing restarting the game. Cool playerlist.

[Mathdino]

To comment on Riddle's play, the fact that he writes up a Riddlecase on everyone's play when the game is already over says something about his quality as a player xD

[Mathdino]

Which is funny because I kept bragging about how unlikely it was that I was going to die.

Whoops.

[Mathdino]

You guys can totally count

That's 8 for reboot, and Aronis and DGB are probably not checking in, so 8/10 of living players. And 8/9 of living non-lurking players.

[Mathdino]

I suggest we kill ABR, after looking at his meta he seems to be a good town player. Also, I don't like how I just meta town confirmed him, we need suspicion and that won't work with him. We can let dino live for a while as he's bad at scum hunting, fort we need to kill the real threats.

[Mathdino]

Remind me to purposefully get all my scumreads wrong D1 so I can fuck up the entire scum team D2 pls.