Open 576.1: The Enemy of my Enemy is my...Enemy? (Game Over)

[dragonspawn]

I was raibis partner in first attempt. There was a reason we both voted for oilura.

I wanted to kill math or birds first round but as I didn't care that much I let my partner kill mastin.

t
so your read was partially right mastin

[dragonspawn]

VOTE: bird

cause I didn't get to before the last game ended

[dragonspawn]

Also I'm reading riabi as town right now.

I rerolled scum the second time. Partnered with njac.

this time I am town. Considering the odds of either me or riabi rolling scum three times im inclined to read him as town. Especially since he didn't have to say anything about his second roll and has been honest and forthcoming.

[dragonspawn]

Statistics is a specialized field. It's why I'm town reading him along with the transparency of his information. You are under no obligation to think as I do.

[dragonspawn]

To clarify, I thought Astinus was townslipping for not realising Grey could just talk to his partner in the PT. Grey is town for his opening post.

only before the game started. If say his partner never showed up he couldn't have said a thing to his partner and would need to communicate in thread some way or simply wait till the night phase assuming he could survive day 1

[dragonspawn]

So far I'm reading riabi and math as town so far. Egg seem scummy for the one post about not posting much with nothing else. Maybe he does have something keeping him busy but then why sign up for the game? I've seen scum do that even to the point of saying someone died. I don't know if they really did have someone die, but it has me suspicious when someone pops up long enough to say they can't post and disappears for long periods of time.

[dragonspawn]

I trust Grey's read on Mastin, but more as a consequence of trusting Grey's Mafia abilities and thinking that it's pretty damn unlikely he and Mastin are scumbuddies and he'd have no reason to lie about her being town at this point as either alignment, if he think she's town.

My townreads so fare are {Mathdino, Mastin}, Dragonspawn is my top scumread, but that's not very strong yet. I'm conflicted about Astinus and Grey, but I can see your arguments for why they are town. I need more from everyone else, hoping particularly that Egg will actually say something.

Why do you think Dragonspawn's bad reasoning is reasoningly likely to come from town?

P-edit: Yeah Dragonspawn's logic is pretty much why the Grey-comunicating-to-his-scumbuddy theory is reasonable.

maybe my reasoning is flawed. But my gut still says riabi is town. I'm not trying to persuade anyone I'm right. Just telling you what I am thinking.

I haven't had many games with astinus. Part of me was thinking that since she didn't vote for herself maybe it was because she was scum lol. I havent made made a decision on her yet but that thought made me laugh

[dragonspawn]

Ignore him Astinus! Please don't selfvote for towncred!

But okay Dragon, any idea what caused your gutread of riabi? He hasn't really said much so far.

I never suggested that astinus self vote to establish towncred. There is nothing for her to ignore.

I've already explained my read of riabi. I don't think he would have been so forthcoming and transparent about previous rolls if he was scum. Like how we communicated concerning the results of the report. No need to go into that much detail. My gut is telling me he is town.

[dragonspawn]

Wait why are we at L2 with guile already? I don't know that he is town but I haven't see any strong reasons why he isn't.

what reasoning is there for him? And why are we rushing this wagon?

[dragonspawn]

Mathdino, why would it be a townslip for GreyICE to make a mistake with the playerlist?

I like Mastin's first post. Those questions could be very helpful. Buuuut. Wouldn't Mathdino's so called townslip just be slipping that he was town in the last game? Or even scum who didn't get a chance to talk pregame? I don't think it's telling for this game.

Riabi's post about being scum the first time looks town

because of all of the details he gives

. However, it's easy to post for town points and change the way he crumbs. So it's weak town points. UPDATE: Ok, so the details were for the game that never happened. That diminishes this much more than the chance that he wanted town points diminished it. Maybe to the point of not even being a town tell anymore.

Scum vibes from Dragonspawn. GreyICE seems to have seen why, although he may not see it as being intentional. I do. lol 2birds too. And Mathdino. And Fink is finally the one to nail it.

Mathdino, why do you think the above about dragonspawn comes from town?

GreyICE, while I personally find everything in your post 26 to be obvious, others may not, And they may be scum. Why are you sharing optimal scum strategy?

Fink, you asked how often I'll check in. I'll try to make an appearance every two days at most. The amount of content I can post depends on the pace of the game.

Interested to see if Teen has reasons why Grey is scum. I'm sure it's been asked already, so consider this me noting it.

Mathdino, (post 50) telling scum who to shoot isn't so bad here because it benefits both town and scum for scum to try to shoot the other scum team.

Astinus (post 51), have you figured out dragon's stuff yet? If not, let me know when you do. And if GreyICE wanted to tell his partner how to play, why not make a post in their QT/PT? As for my V/LA, why would I lie in all of my other games and stop posting in discussion threads just to strategically lurk as scum here for the first time in roughly 300 games? Doesn't that seem like a stretch?

Mathdino (post 76), I actually think all of those possibilities exist. What do you think of his play outside of this tell? Do you see town thinking in his posts? I don't.

Fink's post 84 looks genuine and transparent. Town unless he is very confident in his scum play.

I self-voted because I had read in the wiki that it might be helpful

^This is why the wiki sucks.

Mastin, I think I know what you are trying to say about the Gullie wagon. I don't see a case. It seems like he's being voted for being a non-entity. Why not vote me in that case? Or anyone else who isn't active? However, the players on the wagon aren't overly scummy. It just seems like everyone is misguided. But in a game with two teams, most any mislynch will probably be more misguided than with ill intent. It's interesting to note the wagon, but I don't see anything specific I can pick out of it without more development.

Huh. Wanted to townread Fink until his Gullie vote.

So, right now my scum reads are weak at best, but:

Vote Dragonspawn

okay this is a weird post to me. Your scum reading me, but don't explain why other than some of the others should know why. Does the fact that I publicly stated you are being suspicious and should be looked st have anything to do with it?

why did you want to town read fink? Why did the guile vote make you change your town read on him when you just said no one on the wagon looks overly scummy?

[dragonspawn]

I like Egg's big post. Glad to hear you won't be too out of it.

It looks like town thinking, and it addresses pretty much everything.

@Egg: what about my Guille vote do you dislike? I was null reading him for a while, but I found his posts once he had a wagon on him scummy, particularly the

way

in which he went after me (Dino and Mastin both already have, but while I find their gutreads frustrating, I think they are town.) Guille looked like he was finding excuses to get on a possible alternative wagon: the reasons look made up to me, and the conclusion looks like a reasonable one for scum to aim for. While I didn't have the problem others did with his first three posts, his new ones strike me as fabricated reads.

you like eggs thinking. Why? Because he agrees with you? He really didn't say much of anything in the post.

I read the two of you and I can't help but get a buddying feeling. He makes it a point to saying he was town reading you until you voted on a wagon he didn't feel anyone was acting particularly scummy. Seems odd to say hey I'm town reading him except for this. It just seems he is trying to build your town cred at a time people are looking into you and yet still giving himself room to say I told you so if we lynch you and you flip scum.

and then the you like his thinking comment on a post that really doesn't say much. Is it because he is trying to suggest your town or because he is voting for me like you were?

unvote

VOTE: fink

I'm thinking you and egg are working together. The whole back and forth between you feels scummy to me.

[dragonspawn]

Just wanted to say, I skimmed (very, very much a skim; I only picked up tidbits here and there and will likely have forgotten them all by the time I get back until I do a proper readthrough), because I am leaving too soon for me to read the whole content. I will continue reading from here:

Can you articulate your read on Fink better? I think you're on to something there but it's difficult for me to explain my vibes from Fink.
Have any of your other reads changed in the past 2 pages?

I can try to do better on the Fink read. I'll tell you my change in reads as they happen. Right now, there's one big, huge, noteworthy one:

Egg is scum.

When I get the time to read his post in full (that'll be much, much later today if it's today at all--could be tomorrow), I'll explain. But basically, I've played with Egg enough that I know his town self. I knew it last open, I knew it in 172 in spite of being scum, I knew it in Inu-Yasha. This is not his town self. His play makes him scum for similar reasons that I think Fink is scum, but again, not sure I'll be able to articulate why.

/gotta go, sorry for the briefness.

since you seem to be reading egg as scum I was wondering what you think of his reactions with fink and vice versa.

please let us more about your reads when you can.

[dragonspawn]

Counting the votes fink is closer to a lynch than id prefer this early in the day. I am going to remove mine for the time being. Can't be too careful

unvote

[dragonspawn]

I'm here. I just haven't had much to say at the moment.

[dragonspawn]

rvs is really weird with everyone on a 3rd reroll

your avatar is creepy. If we were still in rvs that would be enough for my vote.

this game is going slow right now. I don't know that much has changed since I was last here.

[dragonspawn]

I could sneeze at the wrong time and some of you would find it suspicious. I'm an easy suspect since my playstyle has the habit of rubbing people the wrong way. Of the games I've played here I've been suspected 75% of the time. I think scum aee me as an easy lynch for some reason. That's the nature of the game. But I found I get results most of the time so I'm not going to change.

[dragonspawn]

What did you do last game to avoid being an investigation target?

wait, why are you asking him for advice on being scum?

unvote

VOTE: egg

[dragonspawn]

Maybe because he assumes no one would think he would be obvious.

he and fink have been pinging my scum radar all game. The fact that he is openly soliciting advice on playing a scum game is just too much to ignore for me.

with reviewing recent comment I am townreading Dino and leading that way with mastin. Raibi still feels gut town to me even though he isn't saying as much recently. Rest are null.

[dragonspawn]

Go to the doctor. That's not normal

[dragonspawn]

Welcome goblin, read through yet?

[dragonspawn]

I'm town reading astinus now. I likes the unvote motivated by his scum reads. Seemed a townish move.

goblin is making me think he is scum. The arguments he made felt weak. Doesn't help that I was already scum reading his slot.

unvote

VOTE: goblin

btw I totally dislike goblins.

[dragonspawn]

Dang. Good night for town lol

[dragonspawn]

So guile is essentially confirmed town. That certainly helps our hunt.

and birds is not the mafia seer. Because he couldn't have received the report.


I'm going to think this one out before I vote for anyone.

[dragonspawn]

So guile and mastin are confirmed town.

bird is likely town.

this definitely helps narrowing it down.

[dragonspawn]

right
but couldct mastin still be the werewolf?

nope. Mastin could not self investigate and isn't the werewolf goon because he is dead.

so mastin and guile are town.

[dragonspawn]

Hey, yall, still running around a lot doing holiday stuff but I've skimmed the last few posts. Bit conflicted about Guille.

I'm not seeing why scum would want to send their investigation results to a townie, to me that just seems like a crapshoot and potentially makes them a more likely lynch target during the Day phase. Like, I guess if it hit the other scum, that's good for them? But again, the odds aren't great. I suppose this is a possibility if scum didn't mind taking a risk, but it just doesn't strike me as a good strategy.

On the other hand, I

could

see scum lying about receiving investigation results to make themselves look like a townie.

Anyway, will need to ISO Guille with the two confirmed scum and think this over.

what is to think over. What possible benefit would guile have in lying about mastin being town? Mastin cannot be his partner because both sides are already down one. So why lie about it? What possible strategy is for doing it?

there is no point to doing it. There is no benefit to lying.

I'm not sure what to think of droog and your reluctance to accept the results.

[dragonspawn]

right
but couldct mastin still be the werewolf?

How could he be?

I'm asking droog.

he could be the werewolf cop

except the werewolf cop cannot investigate himself

[dragonspawn]

That's an awfully-large gambit.

I don't disagree, but, again, what benefit is there in scum sending their results to apparently random people?

Also, worth mentioning, I'm kinda inclined to lynch those who have pushed conftown players like droog and Riabi (side of TGS)...

That's a good p-lynch IMO. But, no one is actually conf-town at this point.

chaos. They didn't know their partner was going to be killed. It's possible that they were trying to set the person they sent the message up as the partner for a mislynch. If you remember I had suggested the possibility when we were partners during the first one through.

[dragonspawn]

VOTE: grey

gut move right now.

[dragonspawn]

I can go along with nova.

unvote

VOTE: nova

id like to see where this takes us.

[dragonspawn]

My thoughts are the same.

I'm alright with lynching the nova slot. Still think grey is a good choice.

droog might be too. I haven't decided. But may as well see the results first

[dragonspawn]

There are alot of people not voting.

somehow I am voting for nova and not voting at the same time. So is my nova vote counting or not?

[dragonspawn]

Nice to see the board active again. I'm all for lynching bulb. He was my preferred choice to begin with.

unvote

VOTE: bulb

[dragonspawn]

Btw totally love the analysis. It's very educational

[dragonspawn]

I really would have liked a lynch on Droog. Why did it got to GI's slot?

because none, including you, has been pushing for droog

[dragonspawn]

Btw with six hours left can we get a lynch done? I'd really prefer not to see a mislynch because of apathy

[dragonspawn]

Not terribly surprised by mastin bring killed considering mastin was confirmed town.

I'm going to think about who to vote for. Riddletons slot probably is a good guess though.

[dragonspawn]

Uh, apparently I didn't state it explicitly enough, but I got an investigation result informing me that I'm town.

Also, your most recent post reads as a townslip to me.

I don't believe you got an investigation report telling you you are town. It doesn't make any sense. Especially if the cop couldn't investigate and do a night kill. Which is how I've seen it in most games. And since there is no point to investigate with one team dead.

the question is why are you claiming this

[dragonspawn]

My guess is our choice should be riddle, droog, or heartless. Leaning toward riddle at this point but I'm not sure.

[dragonspawn]

even if you guys mislynch me we're in too good of a position to really lose

Famous last words.

Nah, just vote Riddleton and we're good. It's really easy, you just need to bold the word "vote", put a colon after it, and then write "Riddleton". There are even BB tags to make it easier.

the question is why are you claiming this

Because it's my reason for reading beast as town, and part of my reason for calling Riddleton best lynch.

so is this the report from yesterday that you are using or a new report? And how does this report indict riddleton?

[dragonspawn]

The votecount's malformed. Riddleton hasn't actually voted.

in fact no one has voted except you.

I'm leaning to join you because riddleton replaced into a spot I had suspicions on.

[dragonspawn]

Riddleton strikes me as the player most likely to send me an investigation informing me that I'm innocent (specifically, he's the only player here who I've played with)

I'm assuming you're claiming to have gotten the werewolf cop's report last night?

that's what I thought but it makes no sense to me. With mafia dead there is no need to investigate. And while I don't know whether it's the same for this games but most games I've played a scum pr can't use their ability and do a night kill at the same time it would be their partner who has to make the kill. We know that there was a kill.

this whole report claim isn't making any sense to me. It's making me suspicious of bird when I would otherwise not be. It makes no sense to lie about a report. Nor does it make any sense for an investigation to have occured

[dragonspawn]

By PoE the majority of the scum is probably in Fink-or-guille, Riabi, Egg, 2birds, and NJAC's slot.

So yeah, would be down with a Riabi lynch for not doing much, but not really interested in getting people to switch over with 4 days to the deadline.

Change 'Fink-or-guille' to 'Fink, guille' because multiball and there's your scum.

Oh yeah I just realised I forgot TGS in there.

Since 2birds and droog are leaning into gut townreads, I'm going with scum in Fink, guille, Riabi, Egg, TGS.

This is interesting
Since Dino town read me and 2birds
He was most likely bussing in his scumreads

so because he was town reading you and birds he was bussing his partner? Why can't either of you be his partner?

[dragonspawn]

I'm leaning between riddle and droog right now. While the remaining scum could be elsewhere my gut is saying one of them.

also we haven't heard from riabi much like today. I would like to hear from him.

[dragonspawn]

Good reason to since I am town. I think I'm going for riddleton right now

VOTE: riddleton

[dragonspawn]

Why not?

[dragonspawn]

Why not?

1. You are not 2birds
2. That isn't an actually response.
3. Are you scum?

1. Your powers of deduction are exceptional. I simply can't allow you to waste them here while there are so many crimes going unsolved at this very moment. Go! Go! For the good of the city!
2. Yes it was, you must didn't like it.
3. Obviously not.

[dragonspawn]

As droog is my second choice at this time I have no problem hammering. I give intent to hammer unless anyone has any objections we need to talk through.

[dragonspawn]

It's been six hours and no response. I'm going to assume no one has an objection at this point. And since the day is over tomorrow and it's a holiday I will probably change my vote tonight before hunting reindeer. So you have a little while before I change my vote

[dragonspawn]

unvote

VOTE: droog

[dragonspawn]

Good game guys. Fun playing with you all.