Open 576.1: The Enemy of my Enemy is my...Enemy? (Game Over)

[Mathdino]

FIRST

VOTE: Egg
because dinosaurs eat eggs.

[Mathdino]

^I'd like to think this is a townslip.

ABR's not in this game, brother.

[Mathdino]

If the game was daystart, how would the former scum get a chance to talk about anything?

Anyway, why the vote on Grey? His opening looks town to me.
I'm also interested to see the results of last game and the reroll- I was town for both.

[Mathdino]

Considering the odds of either me or riabi rolling scum three times im inclined to read him as town. Especially since he didn't have to say anything about his second roll and has been honest and forthcoming.

Guys, stop ninjaing me, this is my job.
YOUR MATH SUCKS.

Granted, it's likely to have come from a town perspective.

TGS, why are you wagoning Grey?

[Mathdino]

But anyway, all of the "how scum was thinking we'd behave" seems a little off topic. The goal of scum in multiball has always been fairly simple - scumhunt just hard enough to actually find scum, but not hard enough to become a shooting threat, and stay there.

You might think it's not a good strategy now that I've mentioned it, but it's still the optimal strategy. Flying just under the radar is top notch. Anyone doing that should generally be burnt at the stake.

Yes, thank you for telling the scum how to play this game.

Still, not something scum would do knowing they're coaching the opposite team. Sticking with Grey as town.

[Mathdino]

What?

[Mathdino]

Your reads (for a page 2 reads list) are good but can we not make spectrums like that and just tell the scum who to shoot?

[Mathdino]

^And I have a feeling this is a townslip.

If Grey wanted to tell his partner how to play, he'd say so in the scum PT.

[Mathdino]

Astinus, I gotta know, why'd you self vote last game?

Edit: I approve of the above post.

[Mathdino]

To clarify, I thought Astinus was townslipping for not realising Grey could just talk to his partner in the PT. Grey is town for his opening post.

[Mathdino]

Does Astinus seem like the type to go "Oh look at that guy's townslip, I'll subtly fake and repeat it but this time nest it in my read on Grey"?
I doubt it.

[Mathdino]

I do, I read her meta pretty extensively last game. Suffice it to say, scum-her's not that good. What's your opinion on mastin's reads so far?

[Mathdino]

I guess, Fink. I just learned from pretty early on that reads spectrums aren't so good. Reads lists (with categories), sure, but not all lined up like that (at least until late late game). Anyway, no, I wasn't thinking there was anything suspicious, just wanted to see what you thought and what you agreed with.

I trust Grey's read on mastin as a consequence of trusting Grey. Town so far is {Grey, mastin, dragonspawn, Astinus}.

[Mathdino]

Also I'm reading riabi as town right now.

I rerolled scum the second time. Partnered with njac.

this time I am town. Considering the odds of either me or riabi rolling scum three times im inclined to read him as town. Especially since he didn't have to say anything about his second roll and has been honest and forthcoming.

See, I see Gambler's Fallacy all the time (I think my pet peeve is changing from tunnel vision to bad maths), and I don't think DS would've made it if he actually DID roll scum 3 times. There's a difference between accidental fallacious reasoning (which is what the GF often is), and fallacious reasoning used to actually convince people of things, and this looks accidental.

Edit: Check guille's ISO. It doesn't look too good TBH, I can see where he's coming from.

[Mathdino]

@Fink: Consider the possibilities:
1. DS rolled town and accidentally assumed Riabi rolled town as well based on Gambler's Fallacy.
2. DS rolled town and tried to convince everyone Riabi is town by knowingly using fallacious reasoning. Nope.
3. DS rolled scum and accidentally assumed Riabi rolled town based on the Gambler's Fallacy. Why is this not a possibility? Because if DS actually DID roll scum, the Gambler's Fallacy would never have popped into his head as anywhere near valid, since it's obviously disproven just by him rolling scum.
4. DS rolled scum and tried to convince everyone Riabi is town by knowingly using fallacious reasoning. Why is

this

not a possibility? Again, if he rolled scum, he would realise that the Gambler's Fallacy is terrible and no one would buy it. The GF is very rarely a calculated move by anyone unless you work at a casino or actually trying to entice gamblers.

[Mathdino]

Ignore him Astinus! Please don't selfvote for towncred!

But okay Dragon, any idea what caused your gutread of riabi? He hasn't really said much so far.

This part pinged me for some reason, mostly gut. Seems kinda odd coming from a townsperson.

I'll have to agree with mastin when I say that Fink is giving off different vibes from last game. Not prepared to sort him on the reads list yet.

[Mathdino]

It seems fake, that's where the vibes are coming from.

[Mathdino]

Because people don't make the Gambler's Fallacy as often when there's proof in their face that it's untrue.

I guess I can see what you're saying as plausible. A fair amount of that is gut based on my own experience with people and bad math, I'll admit.
Furthermore, DS is acting pretty different than he was last game as scum, so I'll be keeping him in the townlist regardless.

[Mathdino]

Eh, if I can see where my townreads are coming from, I don't really care. Most of the time I ask people to explain stuff I already know just to see it in their own words so I can read them.

[Mathdino]

Maybe you could just say "I'll explain later"? I totally understand you otherwise, but people are going to be a bit 'obnoxious' as you put it if votes are accompanied by nothing.

I think a guille wagon is good actually, and looking at the rest of the non-lurkers, everyone else is looking pretty town or null. Leggo.
UNVOTE: whoever
VOTE: guille

@Fink: Doesn't matter what it accomplishes. Not everything scum does is some Machiavellian scheme. Just reads fake.
I'll check your meta later, thanks. Right now there's not enough content to really compare to; I'll read up when I feel the need to vote you or if an unwarranted wagon forms.

[Mathdino]

I generally trust players not to lie about their meta-ing even as scum (would be pretty dumb to outright lie), and in this case, I trust you both to not lie about your trends.

The guille vote stands until he comes back. Everything after his first post is pretty fishy IMO.

Can you articulate your read on Fink better? I think you're on to something there but it's difficult for me to explain my vibes from Fink.

Have any of your other reads changed in the past 2 pages?

[Mathdino]

I never suggested that astinus self vote to establish towncred. There is nothing for her to ignore.

I've already explained my read of riabi. I don't think he would have been so forthcoming and transparent about previous rolls if he was scum. Like how we communicated concerning the results of the report. No need to go into that much detail. My gut is telling me he is town.

This is bad logic. Probably still town.

Sorry >_<

DS's logic while wrong, paints him as town so far. That logic get's you nothing as scum, besides the extra attention from the town when they point out faulty logic. Pointing out you have a town read on someone based on that fallacy first phase often leads to calling "buddying". If one if them is lynched, the other will probably follow.

This post is very worrysome to me. I don't trust Nova.

Nova's post was good. This is also bad logic.

[Mathdino]

102 by Riabi is good and pro-town. Null-town on Riabi for now.

@guille: mastin is town because of the tells Grey pointed out, and the fact that her logic is more irrational, less manufactured.

@TGS: I act like I'm experienced and my join date says I'm experienced but at the end of the day I'm still a newb who has no idea what he's doing
I don't like your not-liking of the meta argument, it seems pretty solid to me.

Fink's last post is REALLY pinging me.

Ok, Fink has lots and lots of words. But they are either repeating what everyone is saying, or not providing any additional information. I see no scumhunting other than saying that DS is maybe scum.

As the lone push on Dragon, which is what I've spent the most words on, I fail to see how that's repeating what anyone is saying. What exactly is scumhunting if not pushing one's read and asking questions?

But yeah

apparently no one eles suspect Dragon

, and his last few posts have been pretty good (I'm still suspicious)

.

He's basically saying (unless I misunderstood) that DS is buddying. So, I don't really know what Nova's post is trying to accomplish with that. Also, What's with the apology.

This bizzaro interpretation of Nova's calling Dragon town as Nova accusing Dragon of buddying doesn't seem like the kind of thing someone could get from reading Nova's post and trying to figure out if he was town or scum. It

does

seem like the kind of thing someone could come up with when skimming back in the thread and trying to justify a bullshit read. And the "unless I misunderstood" gives nice cover for someone calling him out on this, if it turns out not to make sense, as if he suspects that maybe it doesn't.

VOTE: Guille

That's L-2

This bizarro interpretation of guille pointing out something no one else had doesn't seem like the kind of thing someone could get from reading guille's post and trying to figure out if he was town or scum. It

does

... blah blah blah.
Your logic is bad, but while guille's logic was bad, yours is fishy. At least guille's scumhunting.
UNVOTE: guille
VOTE: Fink

Guess it's time to check up on that meta.

[Mathdino]

Oh hell Fink's scum meta is him replacing in during LyLo and writing up cases on why 1 guy's town and 1 guy's scum.
Something tells me that's not as applicable.

Yeah I can't use this. The game where he replaced in D1 gives me townvibes, but other than that, no real trends.

Riabi, jump on the Fink wagon. guille is contributing and hopefully will continue to do so; that wagon doesn't have much utility anymore.

[Mathdino]

@Grey: I mean they both have bad reasons for suspicions (guille's logic on Nova wasn't too good, Fink's logic on guille wasn't too good) but one of them seems much fishier than the other, seems more opportunistic.

@Egg: On Grey, scum usually pay more attention is all. They're more careful.
On DS, I already had this conversation with Fink, and I'm not interested in using it to defend dragonspawn if he ends up being scummy. I do want to note that he's giving off very different vibes than last game, where he was scum.
On post 50, ehhhh. Still makes me uneasy, spectrums of scumminess like that. That's just me.
On post 76, again, my read on DS is partially gut based on what I know of people making the Gambler's Fallacy. And I get different vibes from his posts. I'll reread just to check.
On mastin and guille, Grey already wrote up a case on guille; his first 4 posts were really weird in that two of them were just correcting people and being wrong about it when he could've done more.

I think your reads are a bit backwards but they look good (as in townish) so far. I think the players from the last game are generally agreeing that Fink is acting pretty different than he was then, and the guille vote is just generally pretty fishy.

[Mathdino]

So do you agree with him that Nova was buddying then? Because it seemed ONE POST AGO that you thought it was as weird as I thought it was, until I pointed it out.

It's not pointing something out if it's bullshit. And the assertion that Guille is scumhunting and I'm not is just...

I think Nova's post was good. I think guille pointing it out was misguided, and it doesn't seem forced (hence just 'bad logic'). I think your logic on guille is fishy and opportunistic, an excuse to jump on the wagon.

Also Dino, I appreciate the 20 minutes you gave my completed game. Sorry I haven't finished a better scumgame, but if you're only looking at things to confirm your belief, rather than looking at how someone plays when you know alignment so you can try to figure them out... that's like the definition of confirmation bias.

I can't use it, that's all I can say. LyLo play is extremely different from D1 play. Meta is shaky enough as it is.
I'm not going to use the meta to validate or invalidate my suspicions. That's not confbias.

[Mathdino]

This bizzaro interpretation of Nova's calling Dragon town as Nova accusing Dragon of buddying doesn't seem like the kind of thing someone could get from reading Nova's post and trying to figure out if he was town or scum. It

does

seem like the kind of thing someone could come up with when skimming back in the thread and trying to justify a bullshit read. And the "unless I misunderstood" gives nice cover for someone calling him out on this, if it turns out not to make sense, as if he suspects that maybe it doesn't.

guille saw Nova calling him town and did in fact misunderstand how Nova was using the word 'buddying'.
Do you really think he purposefully used bad logic there to pretend he misunderstood the post just to cast suspicions on Nova? Your "unless I misunderstood" logic is terrible.

Edit: Then I'll look at your town game. You understand, of course, that you pushing me to read it and giving it out rather than being asked for it means you're aware of it, which diminishes the relevance of it.

[Mathdino]

Yeah
uh
no offence to guille but
"something no reasonable person would come up with"
That's because guille wasn't being reasonable. He clearly completely missed the point of Nova's post. Scum usually pay more attention there to make sure they're justified. You're right in that his reasons were total bullshit. But there's a difference between making stuff up and totally derping on a post.

An unreasonable standard? All I'm saying is you're giving off different vibes this game. It was weird at first, but I rolled with it. Then came the guille vote. All the 'vibes' argument is doing is validating my "Fink is scum for jumping on the guille wagon" read.

[Mathdino]

So lemme get this straight. What you're saying is,

1. Nova makes a (granted, badly structured) post on why dragon is town.
2. guille pretends to think Nova's post is scummy for no reason.
3. After asked about it, guille makes shit up and purposefully 'misunderstands' Nova's post to twist his words as scummy.

Rather than,

1. Nova makes a badly structured post on why dragon is town.
2. guille thinks Nova's calling DS town while saying DS is buddying, scumreads Nova.
3. After asked about it, guille explains his reasoning and very clearly missed the entire point of the post.

Yeah, you're really stretching it here.

[Mathdino]

Well, I wasn't, but if you want me to accuse you of underhanded AtE and lying, I could do that too.

You keep saying every post I make is accusing people of "pretending" to do something, therefore scum.

Blatantly wrong, I'm only saying that one post you made is doing that.

Like he saw the post, came up with a reason why it could justify him putting some suspicion there, then when asked about it couldn't remember what that reason was. I think town remembers reasons like that.

There was... nothing he said that implied he forgot anything. Literally nothing. He said he didn't like a post, and then Riabi asked about it, and then he said why.

And yeah, I completely agree that Guille thinking Nova calling Dragon town while saying Dragon is buddying is unlikely.

You do? Because that's not what I'm saying. I think that's exactly the mistake guille made- he saw the word 'buddying' and he saw Nova calling dragon town and he didn't understand Nova's poorly worded post.

I'm not calling you scummy for everything you say. I'm calling you scummy for the guille issues. The fact that you're saying that, however, IS scummy due to the overdefenciveness. I understand completely what you're saying and I think it's BS, using someone's mistake to justify jumping on them.
Making shit up is also not some unthinkable thing TOWN would never do. It's what happens when you misread or misunderstand a post.

[Mathdino]

I'm also calling you scummy for the thing you said about DS, talking about the crowd's opinion of him and almost using that as a justification to back off.

[Mathdino]

Yeah, you're making up things about my ISO...
1. Faking a townslip does have a 'nefarious purpose'. I don't mean to underestimate (well I kind of am), but Astinus is not the kind of scum player that would copy a townslip but try to make it subtler and vaguer.

2. Sooo... first of all...
A. You find it more likely that a scum player would forget their reasoning than a town player? Really?
B. So because guille made that mistake. It means he forgot his original reasoning. And then made up a reason that involves completely misreading Nova's post.
How bout no.

3. This is a blatant lie. The below is the first time I called you scummy:

Ignore him Astinus! Please don't selfvote for towncred!

But okay Dragon, any idea what caused your gutread of riabi? He hasn't really said much so far.

This part pinged me for some reason, mostly gut. Seems kinda odd coming from a townsperson.

I'll have to agree with mastin when I say that Fink is giving off different vibes from last game. Not prepared to sort him on the reads list yet.

I did not think you were scummy for the "Astinus might not have townslipped". I did not think you were scummy for the "DS might not have townslipped". I thought your 'joke' read fake, but not enough for me to vote you. I thought it was a scummy action, which is why I said it pinged me, not that YOU were scummy.

Furthermore,

if you look at my ISO, I literally said after you questioned Astinus, "I approve of the above post".
You're getting WAY too defencive here. If you want to ask mastin why she thought you were scummy on page 2, go right ahead.

[Mathdino]

Yeah I just checked. Dude. I made 1 post about one of your scummy actions, and then I asked mastin to explain her read on you.
That was the extent of the times I suspected you before my votepost.
I have no idea what you're talking about.

[Mathdino]

Request prod on NJAC.

2birds, Nova, get in here.
Actually, everyone get in here.

[Mathdino]

Reads list would be nice. Gives us something to talk about. So far I know your reads on 3 people.

[Mathdino]

I don't see the difference. Last game everyone had issues with mastin for inexplicably defending a self-voter who practically claimed scum and refusing to explain exactly why. Half her reads were out of gut, for chrissake. Furthermore, you'll note that she'd played with no one from last game, while she has played with Grey and Egg (and actually everyone else) this game.

You're gonna have to do better than that, 2birds. I'm not seeing the mastin scumread at all. Also, Grey's and mastin's logic is correct in that townies are more likely to have gutreads than scum because scum have to fake logic.

[Mathdino]

Still think we shoulda left her alive as scumbait.

Regardless, here's the thing. Sometimes it is in fact beneficial to not explain one's reads because that explanation not only alters your read's behaviour for this game but makes them more aware of their meta. Now a naked vote, that's annoying. But mastin very clearly does have actual reasons for voting these people, and has sufficiently explained her lack of explanation.

Self-awareness doesn't alter the fact that as scum, you do have to make up reasons for reads, and gut

does not work

as scum. Also, if you don't trust mastin, trust Grey on this.

Explain this: Where exactly is mastin's scum motivation in voting for Grey or Egg? Grey was townreading her, he's not a threat, nor is he lynchbait. Egg, same.
What makes it scummy? Or are you voting her just to make her explain?

[Mathdino]

Your collective activity disappoints me.

Is this game pretty much waiting on mastin and Egg?

[Mathdino]

Oh, yeah, forgot to say, Nova's probably town.
Town is {mastin, Nova, DS, Grey, Astinus}.

[Mathdino]

I'm not gonna be that guy who gets all cheeky and includes myself in my reads lists and is all like "Well I'm town,

obviously

". Not my style, haha.

Fink is scum, pretty sure. Moving on.

Nova's reads list and explanation of it just look super natural to me, and I can see how he'd have difficulty trusting his reads at this stage. I think scum might show more conviction.

Grey I believe I explained. His opening post seems like a townslip, he as scum wouldn't essentially give tips on how to play the game as scum, his read on guille was good, and his defending mastin who happens to be scumreading is townish.

[Mathdino]

hi droog
so i think
you should come to the conclusion
that fink is scum
just my opinion

[Mathdino]

also
i got a message last night
saying you were scum
so yeah

[Mathdino]

Forgot to say something to Nova.
@Nova: Yeah, I know frustration isn't alignment indicative. Fink was frustrated. Yours just seems more honest, more genuine. Also the self-aware statement you made about yourself last page rings 'town' to me.

@2birds: Eh, I guess I could go for Riabi or TGS out of PoE but I don't really have scumreads on them. Let's see what happens after more discussion.

@droog:
you uh
might want to
read the previous game
itll tell you a lot
about the playerlist

[Mathdino]

Why did Grey's play look like "careful scum" and not just a townie who is paying attention?

...What are you talking about? Reread the game, I think you got my stances mixed up.

Your posts look pretty townish, but I don't like your stance on dragonspawn. It looks sketchy if dragon is scum. It's like you are calling him town, but trying not to do it blatantly. You said you were going to re-read him though, so if you haven't already just let me know when you do and what comes up.

HEY GUYS. DRAGONSPAWN IS TOWN

. You know, like he was in all of my townpools.

Everyone that is saying Fink looks different than in the other game, can you elaborate on that? What specifically looks different?

Viiiibes, man. But seriously, I'll read through the last game and let you know.

Mathdino, you're not entirely wrong, but what gave you the impression that I was townreading Mastin in my first post? All I said was that I liked the questions. I liked them because they can make scum uncomfortable which could lead to a telling awkward post. With two teams, it makes sense for either town or scum to do that. I also questioned Mastin's read on you.

You said it yourself, you never gave a read on mastin so I just assumed it was town based on the fact that you liked her posts.

I like Mastin's first post. Those questions could be very helpful.Mathdino, did I miss something? You mentioned the game waiting on Mastin and myself. What exactly are you looking for from me other than just my input?[/quote]
The game came to a standstill and everyone was basically saying "I dunno, nothing new to say". Figured you and mastin would be able to inject something new to the discussion.

[Mathdino]

I'm not gonna be that guy who gets all cheeky and includes myself in my reads lists and is all like "Well I'm town,

obviously

". Not my style, haha.

Are you scum?

Nope, I'm town,

obviously

.

[Mathdino]

Mathdino, I used to agree with you that scum pay more attention. I feel like you have to. You need to be in complete control of the game as scum. Make sure lynches go how you want. Get people's reads where you want them Etc. Except not everyone plays the same way. The whole "skate by" thing exists. I denied it for the longest time, but people do it. Why did Grey's play look like "careful scum" and not just a townie who is paying attention? Your posts look pretty townish, but I don't like your stance on dragonspawn. It looks sketchy if dragon is scum. It's like you are calling him town, but trying not to do it blatantly. You said you were going to re-read him though, so if you haven't already just let me know when you do and what comes up.

Everyone that is saying Fink looks different than in the other game, can you elaborate on that? What specifically looks different?

Astinus (post 129), I'll hold you to it.

Riabi, maybe I misread then. I thought you were talking about the game that never started when you replied to Mastin.

Fink, my knee jerk reaction to your Gullie vote was that it looked like an out of nowhere opportunistic vote with a hint of OMGUS. I actually like your response though.

Mastin, you suck at reading me. To say you know my meta is a blatant lie. I once called you scum for having an non-genuine town read on me. I was right. You once claimed to have a read on me before I posted. And I don't even know what game you are talking about with "the last open". I think it's more an ego thing than anything alignment indicative, but your confidence in reading me lately seems very feigned. You just aren't good at it. At all. Figures you'd be wrong here too.

Dragon, I felt that you were trying to subtly tell us you can't be scum because you rolled scum twice and it's impossible to roll scum three times. But you did it using Riabi. You applied the logic on him and just snuck in the fact that it applies to you too. It's not just that gambler's fallacy is bad logic. It's the way you used it. As for your suspicion on me, I didn't even take you seriously. As for Fink, I liked his line of questioning and could follow his logic. It looked town. The Gullie wagon up to that point didn't look like it had obvscum on it at all. Then came Fink's vote. It looked bad. However, he has since given a good explanation for it.

2birds, what about Gullie's reaction to a wagon looks town?

Mathdino, you're not entirely wrong, but what gave you the impression that I was townreading Mastin in my first post? All I said was that I liked the questions. I liked them because they can make scum uncomfortable which could lead to a telling awkward post. With two teams, it makes sense for either town or scum to do that. I also questioned Mastin's read on you.

2birds, I find it interesting that you seem to have the same mentality on scum play here compared to a normal game. In the last game, did you not view the other team as a threat? This seems especially weird when they have the one power role that is a threat to you. Just sayin'. Like, scum should be shooting for scum every night. I say that anyway in games with two teams, but it seems especially true here. They have two chances to ruin your game that town doesn't have. Their kill and their investigation. Combine that with day play and they are a triple threat where town is just a single threat.

Mathdino, did I miss something? You mentioned the game waiting on Mastin and myself. What exactly are you looking for from me other than just my input?

Yes, that's exactly what I was saying. Also the fact that he started giving advice on how to play the game as scum. I think I explained my Grey read last page, but I haven't been scumreading him at all this game.

[Mathdino]

ffs these friggin quotes

[Mathdino]

Request prod on guille, mastin, Fink, and Riabi.

-_-

[Mathdino]

Jesus guys we have less than 5 days and half the playerlist is MIA.

If you have nothing better to do talk about Egg's catchup post.

[Mathdino]

@TGS: My condolences. Wouldn't mind if you went V/LA for as long as it takes.

@Grey: Eh. dragon also feels pretty town, especially compared to the first game where I successfully pegged his trajectory as scum. You should convince me, I'm open to it. Just got no reason to scumread him right now.

[Mathdino]

Played with him once before where he had a post restriction that forced him to speak in morse code with the dashes and dots replaced with words. This quickly pissed him off and also pissed off Lady Lambdadelta who he soon began a screaming match with.

Also another game but I can't talk about that.

[Mathdino]

GreyICE. HypotheticalBassists is my hydra. Jesus.

[Mathdino]

By PoE the majority of the scum is probably in Fink-or-guille, Riabi, Egg, 2birds, and NJAC's slot.

So yeah, would be down with a Riabi lynch for not doing much, but not really interested in getting people to switch over with 4 days to the deadline.

[Mathdino]

Or maybe it's just a newbslip not understanding what she was being asked.

[Mathdino]

Oh yeah, that's a good point, forgot this was multiball. Found Fink's jumping on guille's wagon to be indicative that they weren't on the same team but totally derped on setup.

NJAC is now droog. We're not lynching him unless something goes seriously wrong in the next 4 days with his slot.

On 2birds, I'm treating him as a null mostly because while he has been different from last game, I'm not getting overly townish vibes yet. But yeah, wouldn't lynch him, just saying he's in the PoE'd out of the townpool list.

Edit: Written before mastin's wall.

[Mathdino]

mastin

: That's actually really good. I disagree on the 'wanted to townread' part, I think that's something a townie would say but the rest makes sense.

@Grey: What?

Edit: Meh, it's something I'd expect mastin to say.

[Mathdino]

Oh never mind I see what Grey's talking about. Thinks the fact I forgot multiball means I'm scum hunting for the opposing team.

Yeah, no, just derped, sorry. I'm in a very "these people are not scum together" mood in my games right now.

[Mathdino]

Also I'm reading riabi as town right now.

I rerolled scum the second time. Partnered with njac.

this time I am town. Considering the odds of either me or riabi rolling scum three times im inclined to read him as town. Especially since he didn't have to say anything about his second roll and has been honest and forthcoming.

See, I see Gambler's Fallacy all the time (I think my pet peeve is changing from tunnel vision to bad maths), and I don't think DS would've made it if he actually DID roll scum 3 times. There's a difference between accidental fallacious reasoning (which is what the GF often is), and fallacious reasoning used to actually convince people of things, and this looks accidental.

@Fink: Consider the possibilities:
1. DS rolled town and accidentally assumed Riabi rolled town as well based on Gambler's Fallacy.
2. DS rolled town and tried to convince everyone Riabi is town by knowingly using fallacious reasoning. Nope.
3. DS rolled scum and accidentally assumed Riabi rolled town based on the Gambler's Fallacy. Why is this not a possibility? Because if DS actually DID roll scum, the Gambler's Fallacy would never have popped into his head as anywhere near valid, since it's obviously disproven just by him rolling scum.
4. DS rolled scum and tried to convince everyone Riabi is town by knowingly using fallacious reasoning. Why is

this

not a possibility? Again, if he rolled scum, he would realise that the Gambler's Fallacy is terrible and no one would buy it. The GF is very rarely a calculated move by anyone unless you work at a casino or actually trying to entice gamblers.

I know how people tend to make mathematical fallacies, I like to help people in math sometimes. That, and he's been completely different from last game, where he buddied and ass-pulled a case or two.

[Mathdino]

Here's the thing, people. Literally everyone that wasn't here last game is currently scumreading (or at least not townreading) DS. And I get that.

But the pattern does make you wonder. Maybe it's because everyone that was here last game knows that he's been pretty different?

[Mathdino]

mastin, I'd like you to explain the issue with Nova and GI. Not once have you really said what's off about them.

Also, why switch?

[Mathdino]

Or maybe she is simply sum trying to get one of the townspeople lynched by insisting he's town.

[Mathdino]

2birds was the one that was talking to me about not having myself in my own townpool.

Furthermore, the majority of mastin's read on Egg is based on meta and what she knows of 'town Egg'. So "you don't know town Egg" is a valid rebuttal.

I feel like you're switching wagons for the wrong reasons. Was townreading you up until this page.

[Mathdino]

Why do you think scum would be that obvious? Egg is highly experienced, that post is by no means a smoking gun.

[Mathdino]

You'd think he knows how to play scum though.

Why would he

need

anyone's advice?

[Mathdino]

Not much time, just want to grant my official seal of disapproval to the above post, especially since it's Fink's slot.

Walling is not alignment indicative, and clearly your main has never met mastin. Goblin is trying to lynch the most analysis-heavy players. And Egg was friggin catching up in his wallpost.

[Mathdino]

Hell, can I vote Goblin again?

So you just used wall posting (which is mostly a tell of effort, not alignment), which not many posts in this game really even qualify as, you used that as a scumtell to cast suspicion on Egg, me, and mastin. You are lining up my lynch if Egg flips scum.

And now you're saying you'd

normally

agree with me, which means you're basically voting Egg because you don't give a shit if he gets lynched?

Goblin and Egg, likely scum on opposing teams.

[Mathdino]

You not giving a shit about voting Egg shows that you're not on the same team, since you know that what you're doing now is probably going to get you lynched anyway in short order.

But you're probably both scum.

[Mathdino]

I think a lot of you are voting Egg for the wrong reasons. The straw that made DS start voting Egg was one post that wasn't even scummy. What's making you vote Egg is either wallposting or the fact that he's near a lynch.

It's not hypocripsy, I never claimed to townread him after mastin's fairly convincing post. But I'd like to focus my attentions on your slot unless we inch dangerously close to the deadline.

[Mathdino]

By PoE the majority of the scum is probably in Fink-or-guille, Riabi, Egg, 2birds, and NJAC's slot.

So yeah, would be down with a Riabi lynch for not doing much, but not really interested in getting people to switch over with 4 days to the deadline.

Change 'Fink-or-guille' to 'Fink, guille' because multiball and there's your scum.

Oh yeah I just realised I forgot TGS in there.

Since 2birds and droog are leaning into gut townreads, I'm going with scum in Fink, guille, Riabi, Egg, TGS.

[Mathdino]

@droog: You were in there before I got a guttownread on you. You're playing to what I know of you as town. That's probably my weakest read tbh.

Also, since Goblin asked what my 3rd scumread was (not really sure how that's a useful question, but okay), the order of my lynchpool is probably Goblin, Egg, Riabi, guille, TGS.

[Mathdino]

We're lynching MD if egg flips scum.

I also think that the self vote was done to stop the wagon cold in its tracks.
The only scary thing is that I'm the alternative to his lynch if that tactic worked.
Mathdino says egg is scum. He has no excuse for not hammering.

Brother, I'm lynching you no matter what tomorrow. Damn lynch queuing.

Intent to hammer Egg, please provide reads and last words if possible.

[Mathdino]

Prod dodge. Unfortunately, I won't be caught up before deadline. You guys should probably just lynch me. No big deal.

Right, never mind.

I'll hammer tomorrow, does anyone have anything else to talk about?

Edit: gimme a sec

[Mathdino]

droog, check post 243. It's a damn good case on Egg.

[Mathdino]

Hammer tommorow? That isn't okay with me.
Especially not now of all times.

MD, it doesn't look good already.
Stalling longer is playing a gambit with your life.
You said eggbert is scum. Back it up. It's the least you can do for defending and stalling his lynch the whole game.

Then get someone else to hammer. It's called trying to get as much discussion as possible before the deadline; Egg pretty much hijacked the latter part of the day.

You assume that you can get a lynch on me for... waiting a day to hammer? I WILL hammer Egg tomorrow, lynch me if I don't.

Gimme a sec to do a writeup and I'll tell you why.

[Mathdino]

I'm beginning to wonder if your tunneling on me is just to get me pissed off or something. I'm not going to open a counterwagon, I just want more discussion; there's 3 scum other than Egg if we're right about him.
We can discuss this right now; I'm not hammering anytime soon. Assuming 24 hours isn't soon.

Yes, I KNOW self-voting is only beneficial for scum. If he wasn't already at L-1, that'd be the straw that'd get me to vote him.
But guess what? I'm not declaring intent to hammer just because you're telling me to.

Edit: Right. I'm showing resistance to this lynch. Obviously.

[Mathdino]

mastin's a heavy meta player. I wouldn't be suspicious of her just for that.

Also, I just checked, apparently I didn't comment on 243, must've forgotten, sorry. I made a mental note to be like "That's a damn good case, explains everything off about Egg" but apparently I got lazy.

To clarify then, I've been nullreading Egg from the beginning of the game to mastin's case on him, at which point I started scumreading. Fink took the majority of my attention at the time.

[Mathdino]

@Goblin: It's only beneficial to scum, yes, but that doesn't mean only scum do it, unfortunately.
Those 2 weeks of discussion are only if everyone survives. 1 or 2 people will die tonight and hopefully they'll have more stuff to say, reads, etc. That's what I'm stalling for.
Premature hammering is in no way beneficial to town, Goblin. I don't think anyone's gonna get off the wagon anytime soon, so let's start discussing where to look D2.

@Nova: That's assuming he's scum. I'm not 100% sure he's scum, and I listen to the reads of dead town since they're the only confirmed townies.

[Mathdino]

Mod, I'd like to replace out. I don't wish to play with Constantine or any alt of his.

[Mathdino]

I told you I'd WoTC you from the first time we played together, Constantine. Your play is inane, you're got your head up your ass, and I'm pretty sure you're a troll. You consistently scumread me on playstyle and you fuck up the atmosphere of any game.

I play to have fun. Sorry.

[Mathdino]

I can guess which one by who decides to scumread me for shitty reasons. It's kinda hard to ragequit without being mad, I'm just making good on my promises. I have no RL friends here and thus no reason to stick around in spite of you.

I was fine out of tolerance, you were already getting on my nerves. Now I see why.

Get someone else to hammer, my last move is going to be letting town get the most out of this discussion. Hopefully mod will extend the deadline for my replacement, then you get even more time.

Egg and Fink's slot are scum. Look in my aforementioned PoE list for the rest.

[Mathdino]

I'll tell you what. I'm PMing the mod to see if y'all can get a deadline extension (after all, everyone's V/LAs will be over just a day after the deadline) so we can get those players' inputs, and if he says no, I'll hammer for ya.

[Mathdino]

oh i get one more post

BAH




HA
HA
HA
HA
go scum

[Mathdino]

dammit

was a good run

for the record, the analysis that tth pulled on me and when i mentioned droog, wouldve said that as town anyway

[Mathdino]

i wanna see the werewolf topic

[Mathdino]

i was mostly spending my time in the dead thread -_-ing at you

dammit tth

[Mathdino]

Before we go on the werewolves I have to ask you something.

What exactly were we expecting out of Pine in terms of decision making dynamics here? The mafia was easier because mrstrife, with barely enough posts to qualify for the title "Mafia Scum" under his username, wasn't going to have much juice in that decision making process for the night actions. The one already there was clearly going to call the shots. Does Pine have a reputation of being good, a power player?

If so, it's going to be a little tougher because with the mafia we were comparing reads of an entity vs a non-entity. Now we're trying to account for reads that could potentially come from the black box of whatever Pine said and thought. Antihero thought the mastin targeting pointed to droog being the mafia seer, which could have merit. droog certainly was scumreading mastin, mostly centered around what he perceived to be a bad attack on egg, Post 389. He also scumread goblin for the L-1 egg vote in Post 370, which goes a way toward explaining the kill. Both these reads would very likely be reinforced with an Egg town flip. There's some reasonable doubt here, though, because it's possible that Pine is responsible for the choices of night actions. Regardless of what you think about what Pine may or may not have done, you have to admit droog's reads and the actions

do

line up awfully well with what the wolves ended up doing.

Personally, I think droog himself is fairly scummy as well. The entirety of droog's ISO is very thin to begin with and he reads as a lot more muted both in terms of posting style and posting frequency than the last game I played with him where he was town. His vote remains completely idle, but it's not like he doesn't have any scum reads. mastin was one, but oddly enough droog

removed

his predecessor's vote on him never to return it. He was also a very vocal detractor of the Egg wagon; we see that in Post 379, Post 389, and Post 424.

Not once this entire time

does droog vote the Goblin counter wagon to this Egg wagon he apparently loathes so much. The words are there, but when the chips hit the table, he was nowhere to be found when it came time to actually vote. This is a calculated passivity in the face of what he's predicting to be a town flip. (I'm kind of surprised Anti didn't mention that because I learned this tell from him...) And don't tell me that multiball mitigates this at all because there's

plenty of utility

to scum making themselves appear to be passive non-threats to their rivals.

-TTH

-TTH

I Might be biased, but when I read through Math's ISO I thought that He was prepping me up to be his buddy. Like his defense for me and then a bit of suspicion later, while still defending me from fink. Although, I might be giving him too much credit here, but that's how I see it. When I play scum I try to not generate associate tells with my buddies, and I actively try to manufacture associative tells on other players.

Nihil sapientiae odiosius acumine nimio.

There are so many things that says droog is scum:

*

Both the Goblin nightkill and the mastin investigation make sense with what we know droog's reads were. You can say what you want about what you think Pine's input was, but there's something to be said for actually

being here

the whole game. I bet the wolf who was already here had the most sway.

*

The associatives between droog and MathDino are there. You don't have to look far to find the chumminess I was talking about earlier: Post 184 and Post 191. The townread on droog is never explained beyond "gut" (Post 350) and MathDino is sure to qualify it as his "weakest" read (Post 354) even though he's adamant about not wanting to lynch the slot (Post 246). It's a non-sequitur and unsupported read in the middle of an otherwise reasoned set of reads, and that sticks out.

*

There's the matter of droog being a naysayer on the Egg wagon but not actually doing anything about it.

*

Overall, droog's ISO isn't anything to write home about. The current reads are in absolute disarray and the resulting vote doesn't make much sense. He presented associatives with our slot, Riddleton's slot, and beastcharizard's slot. Surprisingly, the one with the least support and vaguest outlining, Riddleton's slot, ends up with the vote (Post 746). The stronger cases lie elsewhere, but Riddleton gets the vote because "Sorry bro It's makes sense associatively"?

these posts pissed me off

[Mathdino]

greyice was on the opposite team before he replaced out, i was the insanely obvious kill

i mean i tunneled his partner into the ground d1

i was clearly the most townish player and he was waiting to NK me (kept saying i'd be nk'd)

and then i dropped a fucking HUGE multiball scumslip that he picked up on somehow (props to him, surprised no one else noticed it)

and he started calling me scum but not worrying about it since i'd be NK'd anyway

greyice killed my slot, plain and simple

the NKs had nothing to do with my feud with constantine, was basically scum trying to kill scum

[Mathdino]

no but srsly damn you tth

i dont even

how

there were no associatives to be made there, i literally just told greyice that we shouldnt lynch someone whose slot was being replaced

and i pulled a standard reaction test on him

[Mathdino]

but i wouldve said exactly that as town or if he wasn't my scumpartner :'(

i blame droog

[Mathdino]

Droog drew sufficient attention for him to get enough scrutiny and there was a lack of association between everyone else.

So, tell me Math. Was I right in thinking that you were framing me to be your partner? Or was it my paranoia?

Also, Happy Holidays!

I played as if I didn't have a partner. Was pretty easy since NJAC started out as it. Would've run the same reaction test on droog, would've had the exact same reads I did (with the exception of the damn scumslip Grey caught), etc etc.

In essence, no, I wasn't playing my scumgame because the last thing I expected was to be lynched after multiple faked townslips and high activity. My problem arose when Grey was practically calling for the mafia to shoot me.

And you too!

[Mathdino]

Yeah I'm beginning to think scum strategy in multiball should be to leave the other scumteam alone and go for whoever is the biggest threat to them. The problem is the other scumteam won't necessarily think the same.

Prisoner's Dilemma.

[Mathdino]

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